Pilot shortage
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Nothing really new or revolutionary in the article but I did have a good laugh at QANTAS’ newfound ‘social responsibility’ regarding pilot training. What fantastic and responsible global citizens QANTAS management are!
https://www.perthnow.com.au/travel/a...-ng-b88869915z
https://www.perthnow.com.au/travel/a...-ng-b88869915z
Twitcher,
Your username has always cracked me up, and there’s a lot of good stuff in your post. I’ve only left the stuff that i perceive to be incorrect, and your excellent recommendation at the end
No. You cannot strike at the drop of a hat. In fact, the record for negotiating a new contract (EBA) approaches seven years, with no strike allowed. No Contract expires, they become ‘amenable’. The pilot group is then left negotiating for years with the old contract in place. It’s almost impossible to strike. I can think of only two in the last 20 years (happy to be corrected).
Bankruptcy laws changed years ago. They can’t dump the pensions anymore. Only American Airlines failed to sneak one in before the law changed. Guess who kept their pensions ?
Frozen. But they kept their money.
To sum up, the industry has changed fundamentally from a boom and bust cycle, to the current steady rate. Listen to any Investor call after quarterly earnings - the large funds lose their mind if they hear growth above 5%. Of course the next SARS, or recession would affect the industry. But it’s not self immoliating anymore.
They continue to arrive in flocks. You can’t throw a beercan without hitting one in a new hire class. 50% of new hires are military and thousands have been hired in the last few years.
Well said. One of the few individuals that have been banned from operating an airline or within the airline industry. Hard Landing is essential reading.
Cheers
Your username has always cracked me up, and there’s a lot of good stuff in your post. I’ve only left the stuff that i perceive to be incorrect, and your excellent recommendation at the end
The US industry is a different environment, where you can simply vote to go on strike and cripple an operator without having to go cap in hand to the industrial relations umpire first. Equally, the operator can turn around and declare bankrupt, go into Chapter 11 and decimate wages and benefits.
Bankruptcy laws changed years ago. They can’t dump the pensions anymore. Only American Airlines failed to sneak one in before the law changed. Guess who kept their pensions ?
Frozen. But they kept their money.To sum up, the industry has changed fundamentally from a boom and bust cycle, to the current steady rate. Listen to any Investor call after quarterly earnings - the large funds lose their mind if they hear growth above 5%. Of course the next SARS, or recession would affect the industry. But it’s not self immoliating anymore.
This has now stopped, and in fact the US fighter pilot numbers are 25% below required strength
I am reminded of the such characters of Frank Lorenzo when I view both the current & former CEO. It is almost as if these two have read the history of the industry in the US as written by Thomas Petziner in Hard Landing (essential reading). In many ways, the former was much more in the mould of the swashbuckling pirate raiders of the US deregulation era than the current one.
Cheers
Last edited by JPJP; 19th Jun 2018 at 00:18.
The USA is the only country that cares about pilots having a degree. Emirates does ha e a crewing problem but you don't meet the mins for them. Qatar don't seem to ever have a shortage of applicants.
I assume by you referring to your "ATP" you are US based? There are bucket loads of jobs in the usa now. Why look overseas?
I assume by you referring to your "ATP" you are US based? There are bucket loads of jobs in the usa now. Why look overseas?
Might still be a bit low houred for EK. Think it's 2000Hrs on over 20t. So you would be close .
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Original Archived (without charts)
Opinion: The U.S. has a shortage of pilots — and it’s going to get worse
By
PETER GALL
Published: July 13, 2018 9:53 a.m. ET
Even the Navy and Air Force forecast pilot shortages within a few years
The national security of the U.S. relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes – and highly skilled pilots to operate them.
However, the U.S. has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels.
According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in the U.S. in 1987. Over the last three decades, that number has decreased by 30 percent.
Meanwhile, during this time period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the U.S. airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse.
I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
What’s more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline.
Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
This is due in part to deregulation. The 1978 Airline Deregulation Actkicked off the era of the low-cost carrier. As a result, airlines such as Pan-Am went out of business.
Then, the 9/11 attacks left the airlines in poor financial condition. Five of the six major legacy airlines in the U.S. declared bankruptcy: US Airways, Delta, Northwest, United and American Airlines. I clearly recall a day a couple of weeks after 9/11, when one of my flights, from Washington D.C. to Orlando, Florida, boarded just one passenger.
From my own experience, I can attest to many pilots like myself who were forced to vacate their captain position and go back to first officer, resulting in their pay dropping from roughly $190,000 per year to $75,000 per year.
In the 80s, roughly two-thirds of airline pilots were ex-military. Recently, that percentage has dropped to less than one-third. The Navy predicts a 10 percent pilot shortage in 2020, while the Air Force predicts its own 1,000-pilot shortage by 2022.
This means many young aspiring aviators now have to pay for their own flight training. That can be very costly, easily exceeding $100,000, especially in light of an uncertain future. Many are simply unwilling to take the risk. This effect was aggravated by the Great Recession.
In 2009, Congress changed the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots from 60 to 65. In my view, this didn’t solve the problem, but merely kicked the can down the road.
A 2016 report by Boeing shows that 42 percent of the pilots currently flying for the major airlines in the U.S. will reach their mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, this move crippled the career advancements of the more junior, younger pilots. That’s caused many of them – including myself – to seek a more stable career.
If that’s not enough, there have been significant changes in the work and rest rules for airline pilots. After the Colgan crash near Buffalo in 2009, Congress changed the pilot experience requirements for the airlines. Newly hired pilots must now have a certificate which requires a minimum of 1,500 hours of flight time. Prior to this law being passed, pilots could fly for an airline with a minimum of 250 flight hours.
The other side of the shortage problem is that demand for well-trained pilots is actually increasing. The greatest demand is in Asia and the Pacific regions.
Manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus are delivering more and more airplanes and plan to continue to do so over the next 20 years.
Congress also changed the duty time rules in 2010 to mitigate pilot fatigue issues. This change meant airlines had to increase their pilot staffing by 5 to 8 percent in order to cover the same schedule. In other words, they need to hire even more qualified pilots.
The U.S. major airlines are not yet directly experiencing the pilot shortage. But smaller regional airlines are experiencing this firsthand. Their schedules have been reduced and some, such as Republic, have been forced into bankruptcy as a result of inadequate staffing.
The industry has taken a few steps to address this problem. Regional airlines now offer much higher pay and even signing bonuses. Also, there have been some minor amendments to the 1,500-hour rule. Pilots can now receive their certificate in fewer than 1,500 hours if training takes place at certain flight schools. There’s even talk of extending the retirement age again to 67.
In my view, these steps alone will not solve this problem. Airlines need to consider forming their own pipeline. The airlines will need to begin recruiting and training their own pilot candidates. For example, in April, American Airlines, where I used to work, announced the American Airlines Cadet Academy, with the intent of recruiting the next generation of pilots.
PETER GALL
Published: July 13, 2018 9:53 a.m. ET
Even the Navy and Air Force forecast pilot shortages within a few years
The national security of the U.S. relies on a healthy airline industry. That requires modern reliable airplanes – and highly skilled pilots to operate them.
However, the U.S. has a shortage of pilots right now, particularly at the regional airline levels.
According to the Federal Aviation Administration, there were about 827,000 pilots in the U.S. in 1987. Over the last three decades, that number has decreased by 30 percent.
Meanwhile, during this time period, there has been a tremendous increase in the demand for air travel. The International Air Transport Association predicts that, over the next 20 years, air travel will double.
This is a classic case of low supply and high demand. This mismatch has created a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the U.S. airline industry over the next decade. The somber news is this shortage is going to get much worse.
I have not only studied and researched the airline industry since 1978, but I also was a pilot for 19 years, before going back to academia in 2006.
Industry changes
In the 1970s, when most of today’s airline pilots like myself were growing up, piloting for an airline was considered a prestigious career. The job offered not only high salaries and nice schedules with many days off, but also a respected position in society. In the early 1990s, pilot salaries approached US$300,000 in today’s dollars for some international pilots.What’s more, during this time, the military had a steady and consistent demand for pilots. A young aspiring aviator could go into the military to receive all of his or her flight training. Once these pilots had fulfilled their military commitment, they were almost guaranteed a good job flying for a major airline.
Today, this is no longer the case. The career of the airline pilot has lost its luster.
This is due in part to deregulation. The 1978 Airline Deregulation Actkicked off the era of the low-cost carrier. As a result, airlines such as Pan-Am went out of business.
Then, the 9/11 attacks left the airlines in poor financial condition. Five of the six major legacy airlines in the U.S. declared bankruptcy: US Airways, Delta, Northwest, United and American Airlines. I clearly recall a day a couple of weeks after 9/11, when one of my flights, from Washington D.C. to Orlando, Florida, boarded just one passenger.
From my own experience, I can attest to many pilots like myself who were forced to vacate their captain position and go back to first officer, resulting in their pay dropping from roughly $190,000 per year to $75,000 per year.
Fewer new pilots
Meanwhile, the number of pilots supplied by the military has dwindled. Much of this is due to the use of unmanned aerial vehicles.In the 80s, roughly two-thirds of airline pilots were ex-military. Recently, that percentage has dropped to less than one-third. The Navy predicts a 10 percent pilot shortage in 2020, while the Air Force predicts its own 1,000-pilot shortage by 2022.
This means many young aspiring aviators now have to pay for their own flight training. That can be very costly, easily exceeding $100,000, especially in light of an uncertain future. Many are simply unwilling to take the risk. This effect was aggravated by the Great Recession.
In 2009, Congress changed the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots from 60 to 65. In my view, this didn’t solve the problem, but merely kicked the can down the road.
A 2016 report by Boeing shows that 42 percent of the pilots currently flying for the major airlines in the U.S. will reach their mandatory retirement age of 65 in the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, this move crippled the career advancements of the more junior, younger pilots. That’s caused many of them – including myself – to seek a more stable career.
If that’s not enough, there have been significant changes in the work and rest rules for airline pilots. After the Colgan crash near Buffalo in 2009, Congress changed the pilot experience requirements for the airlines. Newly hired pilots must now have a certificate which requires a minimum of 1,500 hours of flight time. Prior to this law being passed, pilots could fly for an airline with a minimum of 250 flight hours.
Growing demand
The other side of the shortage problem is that demand for well-trained pilots is actually increasing. The greatest demand is in Asia and the Pacific regions.Manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus are delivering more and more airplanes and plan to continue to do so over the next 20 years.
Congress also changed the duty time rules in 2010 to mitigate pilot fatigue issues. This change meant airlines had to increase their pilot staffing by 5 to 8 percent in order to cover the same schedule. In other words, they need to hire even more qualified pilots.
The U.S. major airlines are not yet directly experiencing the pilot shortage. But smaller regional airlines are experiencing this firsthand. Their schedules have been reduced and some, such as Republic, have been forced into bankruptcy as a result of inadequate staffing.
The industry has taken a few steps to address this problem. Regional airlines now offer much higher pay and even signing bonuses. Also, there have been some minor amendments to the 1,500-hour rule. Pilots can now receive their certificate in fewer than 1,500 hours if training takes place at certain flight schools. There’s even talk of extending the retirement age again to 67.
In my view, these steps alone will not solve this problem. Airlines need to consider forming their own pipeline. The airlines will need to begin recruiting and training their own pilot candidates. For example, in April, American Airlines, where I used to work, announced the American Airlines Cadet Academy, with the intent of recruiting the next generation of pilots.
Sully nailed it. In addition, young people nowadays have so many more options, don't want hardships, and don't get the stimulus of previous generations.
In the 70s and 80's, 10,000+ people would annually apply to the RAAF in the hope of being trained as a pilot.
By 2012 onwards, the number had fallen to around 700 and even below that annually.
The jobs just don't seem that attractive to young people, and the previous stimulus events like frequent RAAF airshows all around the country have dwindled. The airlines and ADF are really after the same people and there are fewer interested.
Shame.
In the 70s and 80's, 10,000+ people would annually apply to the RAAF in the hope of being trained as a pilot.
By 2012 onwards, the number had fallen to around 700 and even below that annually.
The jobs just don't seem that attractive to young people, and the previous stimulus events like frequent RAAF airshows all around the country have dwindled. The airlines and ADF are really after the same people and there are fewer interested.
Shame.
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Sully nailed it. In addition, young people nowadays have so many more options, don't want hardships, and don't get the stimulus of previous generations.
In the 70s and 80's, 10,000+ people would annually apply to the RAAF in the hope of being trained as a pilot.
By 2012 onwards, the number had fallen to around 700 and even below that annually.
The jobs just don't seem that attractive to young people, and the previous stimulus events like frequent RAAF airshows all around the country have dwindled. The airlines and ADF are really after the same people and there are fewer interested.
Shame.
In the 70s and 80's, 10,000+ people would annually apply to the RAAF in the hope of being trained as a pilot.
By 2012 onwards, the number had fallen to around 700 and even below that annually.
The jobs just don't seem that attractive to young people, and the previous stimulus events like frequent RAAF airshows all around the country have dwindled. The airlines and ADF are really after the same people and there are fewer interested.
Shame.
Combined with vicious anti staff rhetoric (which was dialed up by Ryanair and their ilk) has created a storm unprecedented.
Whilst IR collectively scratches its head how best to continue a three decade reduction in labour unit costs (pilot terms and conditions) the shortage grows.
They will do everything, wonder how long it takes until they start doing the right thing?
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As a young person with a CPL, I just don't think the airline industry is as attractive as it once was. I finished my CPL training in 2009 before losing my class 1 medical for 3 years.
This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.
I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.
In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.
A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.
Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.
This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.
This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.
I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.
In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.
A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.
Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.
This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.
Last edited by cnnnn1; 15th Jul 2018 at 06:38. Reason: mistake
"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."
Thomas Sowell
"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."
As a young person with a CPL, I just don't think the airline industry is as attractive as it once was. I finished my CPL training in 2009 before losing my class 1 medical for 3 years (based on a CASA decision not even based on the most appropriate medical evidence available).
This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.
I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.
In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.
A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.
Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.
This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.
This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.
I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.
In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.
A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.
Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.
This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.
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Thank you for your fine contribution recounting your own experiences with this industry cnnnn1.
You mirror the experiences of many many pilots who start in this industry. Yes, it is an enormously risky gamble, unfortunately luck, chance & uncertainty play a significant role in success or failure in this industry. For most people it really is a one-shot roll of the dice given the binary nature of qualifications. A CPL has a large net negative financial value unless working for a large RPT operator as a pilot.
Here is something I wrote back in 2016 (completely different topic, yet also highly relevant) that reinforces your experiences
2016 post #155
However, this is a very old story, originally written by the father of modern economics, Adam Smith in 1776 in the Wealth Of Nations. Substitute any occupation that requires a great deal of expense or career risk for that of the law student in Smith's example. He was merely observing what had gone on for a very long time.
Reflect on Smith's words carefully:
In essence, Smith is saying that many professions undertake great financial risk to train, those that succeed should capture the cost of the training expenses and foregone income for all trainees for years of lowly toil. Overall, they never capture the full amount lost by those who fail. In other words, in modern financial terms, flying training, like the law in Smith's time, on average, likely to be a negative sum game.
You mirror the experiences of many many pilots who start in this industry. Yes, it is an enormously risky gamble, unfortunately luck, chance & uncertainty play a significant role in success or failure in this industry. For most people it really is a one-shot roll of the dice given the binary nature of qualifications. A CPL has a large net negative financial value unless working for a large RPT operator as a pilot.
Here is something I wrote back in 2016 (completely different topic, yet also highly relevant) that reinforces your experiences
Originally Posted by CurtainTwitcher
Are you actually a pilot Orange Future? I note this question has previously been asked. Because, if not, it is very difficult to understand the risks, determination, no, sheer bloody-mindedness that is required to make it into a jet in this region. Every single pilot who you see walking through the terminal has demonstrated, at some point in their career a rare ruthless determination to succeed, usually prior to the point before there is any guarantees. They have totally committed every single one of their chips to a single hand. If you haven't been there, it is difficult to understand the pain & anguish of the process. Perhaps that is why airlines are desperate to attempt to broaden the base, people are no longer willing to take such risks, or they perceive the pay-off to be too low.
However, this is a very old story, originally written by the father of modern economics, Adam Smith in 1776 in the Wealth Of Nations. Substitute any occupation that requires a great deal of expense or career risk for that of the law student in Smith's example. He was merely observing what had gone on for a very long time.
Originally Posted by Adam Smith
10.1.25 The probability that any particular person shall ever be qualified for
the employment to which he is educated, is very different in different occupations.
In the greater part of mechanic trades, success is almost certain; but very
uncertain in the liberal professions. Put your son apprentice to a shoemaker,
there is little doubt of his learning to make a pair of shoes: But send him
to study the law, it is at least twenty to one if ever he makes such proficiency
as will enable him to live by the business. In a perfectly fair lottery, those
who draw the prizes ought to gain all that is lost by those who draw the blanks.
In a profession where twenty fail for one that succeeds, that one ought to
gain all that should have been gained by the unsuccessful twenty. The
counsellor at law who, perhaps, at near forty years of age, begins to
make something by his profession, ought to receive the retribution, not only
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than
twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
How extravagant soever the fees of counsellors at law may sometimes
appear, their real retribution is never equal to this.
Compute in any particular place, what is likely to be annually gained, and what is likely
to be annually spent, by all the different workmen in any common trade, such as that
of shoemakers or weavers, and you will find that the former sum will generally exceed
the latter. But make the same computation with regard to all the counsellors and students
of law, in all the different inns of court, and you will find that their annual gains bear but a
very small proportion to their annual expence, even though you rate the former as high,
and the latter as low, as can well be done. The lottery of the law, therefore, is very far
from being a perfectly fair lottery; and that, as well as many other liberal and honourable
professions, is, in point of pecuniary gain, evidently under-recompenced.
the employment to which he is educated, is very different in different occupations.
In the greater part of mechanic trades, success is almost certain; but very
uncertain in the liberal professions. Put your son apprentice to a shoemaker,
there is little doubt of his learning to make a pair of shoes: But send him
to study the law, it is at least twenty to one if ever he makes such proficiency
as will enable him to live by the business. In a perfectly fair lottery, those
who draw the prizes ought to gain all that is lost by those who draw the blanks.
In a profession where twenty fail for one that succeeds, that one ought to
gain all that should have been gained by the unsuccessful twenty. The
counsellor at law who, perhaps, at near forty years of age, begins to
make something by his profession, ought to receive the retribution, not only
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than
twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
How extravagant soever the fees of counsellors at law may sometimes
appear, their real retribution is never equal to this.
Compute in any particular place, what is likely to be annually gained, and what is likely
to be annually spent, by all the different workmen in any common trade, such as that
of shoemakers or weavers, and you will find that the former sum will generally exceed
the latter. But make the same computation with regard to all the counsellors and students
of law, in all the different inns of court, and you will find that their annual gains bear but a
very small proportion to their annual expence, even though you rate the former as high,
and the latter as low, as can well be done. The lottery of the law, therefore, is very far
from being a perfectly fair lottery; and that, as well as many other liberal and honourable
professions, is, in point of pecuniary gain, evidently under-recompenced.
Reflect on Smith's words carefully:
"The counsellor at law who, perhaps, at near forty years of age, begins to make something by his profession, ought to receive the retribution, not only
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
...
their real retribution is never equal to this"
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
...
their real retribution is never equal to this"
In essence, Smith is saying that many professions undertake great financial risk to train, those that succeed should capture the cost of the training expenses and foregone income for all trainees for years of lowly toil. Overall, they never capture the full amount lost by those who fail. In other words, in modern financial terms, flying training, like the law in Smith's time, on average, likely to be a negative sum game.
Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 15th Jul 2018 at 00:06. Reason: added Smith quote second paragraph
Part of the wider issue in the fall of people taking up aviation is just the sheer amount of effort/cost required to get anywhere near a decent paying airline job and the fact that you are totally beholden to your employer for your income once you get there. Pilots are not professionals by definition and cannot setup shop somewhere and sell their skills like a Doctor/Accountant/Dentist/Lawyer/Engineers can. Add to this problem there is no real means of operating your own business in aviation due to the enormous barriers to entry. So your entire income stream hinges on the success/failure of your airline executive.
It is also interesting to note too that these executives are all too keen to openly talk about and foster 'executive talent' and create 'career pathways' to keep office dwellers in a job. So much so they will just create jobs out of thin air to keep people in the business.
Pilots however have had their flying careers isolated and destroyed by sub contracting and the silo affect of airline businesses.Then add to all this inflexible rostering, hard line industrial stances with a lifetime of permanent shift work, does not make for a pleasant outlook. Personally I think the issues around the lack of rostering/lifestyle flexibility is going to really blow up airlines in the future as the younger generation are just not going to put up with it. People that essentially work Mon-Fri Office hours are complaining about work flexibility now, let alone with permanently shifting rosters, weekends, public holidays, Xmas etc. It is no wonder that the younger generation are walking away.
It is also interesting to note too that these executives are all too keen to openly talk about and foster 'executive talent' and create 'career pathways' to keep office dwellers in a job. So much so they will just create jobs out of thin air to keep people in the business.
Pilots however have had their flying careers isolated and destroyed by sub contracting and the silo affect of airline businesses.Then add to all this inflexible rostering, hard line industrial stances with a lifetime of permanent shift work, does not make for a pleasant outlook. Personally I think the issues around the lack of rostering/lifestyle flexibility is going to really blow up airlines in the future as the younger generation are just not going to put up with it. People that essentially work Mon-Fri Office hours are complaining about work flexibility now, let alone with permanently shifting rosters, weekends, public holidays, Xmas etc. It is no wonder that the younger generation are walking away.
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As a young person with a CPL, I just don't think the airline industry is as attractive as it once was. I finished my CPL training in 2009 before losing my class 1 medical for 3 years.
This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.
I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.
In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.
A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.
Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.
This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.
This period of time (just after the GFC) was immensely difficult for new pilots to get their foot in the door and I've had multiple friends around my age who simply gave up chasing the dream.
I've since become a doctor and just instruct on the side casually. The cost of flight school, the complete unpredictably and mistrust of the job market, disqualifying CASA medical decisions (often not perfectly predicated on the current medical literature), strange recruitment strategies employed by aviation organisations/airlines (often not merit based) and the repeated disappointments during that period of almost no hiring has put many young people off the career. I've had numerous friends slog it out for 5 years+ and face multiple redundancies (due to the collapse of regional airlines) and just became burnt out and, sometimes, severely mentally unwell during the process of progressing in the career. In addition, many of these friends saw others get much further than them with cadetships (that shall not be mentioned) when they simply didn't have the finances to afford this option.
In contrast with medicine (and other professional jobs), which has a very clear and more predictable career trajectory, aviation, even for those with an incredible passion for it, just became less and less attractive as a realistic and sustainable career.
A tiny handful of my friends who started their CPL training with me have made it through the slog and finally into airlines (good on them), but there are dozens more who just crashed out and could not deal with it any longer.
Maybe the 'do your dues' attitude of struggling endlessly for a career in the airlines is an admirable and righteous concept, but many young people simply do not have faith in the career that they envisioned aviation as once being. It is seen as a hostile and cut-throat career choice. Even though many other careers are immensely difficult to succeed in, many I've spoken to just see aviation as an incredibly risky long-term career goal.
This is just my two cents/my opinion.. but I think the aviation industry will need to regain the trust of young and ambitious aspiring aviators if they want to see more candidates signing up for the hard slog ahead.
It's explained to every person, that wants to be a Commercial pilot, that a "license" can become invalid at anytime, if they cannot hold a class 1 medical certificate.
If a person cannot hold a Class 1 medical, it means, something has gone wrong with the body, which is beyond a person's control.
It's also explained to every person, prior to commencing their first training flight, that there's no guarantee of getting a flying job, after completion of a CPL qualification.
Any person that wants to enter this "pilot game", is well aware of the pitfalls along the way to a commercial flying career.
Everyone knows the beast (aviation) they are up against and the medical and flying licenses and standards that must be maintained, to work in any aviation job.
I have "no sympathy", for any person that has done their flying training and spent over 100K in training, and cannot find a job in aviation.
I'm sorry, but people knew what they were signing up for, prior to taking their first training flight.
There's no use in people crying after all the time (years) and money's spend.
There's no point in people blaming the aviation industry, everyone's aware of the challenges involved.
Obviously, if a person cannot get an aviation job (any), they will have to enter the workforce or study something else.
It's not that glamorous in other careers, i know quite a few people that completed I.T and Accounting degrees, and couldn't get into that type of work.
The first year of University drop out rate is currently at 20%, because people find the course too hard or feel, it wasn't what they expected.
There's a world wide demand for Commercial pilots at all levels of aviation, a person has to be in it to win it, same as the lottery,
but a person must also posses the required flying and medical qualifications, to get to the next level.
It really isn't that hard to be a pilot!
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Seagull I think you give too much credit to the flight schools and young people’s ability to see the future clearly! For one, the average training organization has a very slick marketing campaign running these days which give kids (19-25) a fairly unrealistic outlook on the industry. It’s not designed to give the prospective student a balanced view of a 50 year career path for sure.
And we all know how bulletproof we were when we were in our 20’s!? Blocked coronary, prostate issues, Laser eye surgery and blood pressure ain’t on your radar back then.
Wisdom is something life beats into you
And we all know how bulletproof we were when we were in our 20’s!? Blocked coronary, prostate issues, Laser eye surgery and blood pressure ain’t on your radar back then.
Wisdom is something life beats into you
Thread Starter
Personally I think the issues around the lack of rostering/lifestyle flexibility is going to really blow up airlines in the future as the younger generation are just not going to put up with it. People that essentially work Mon-Fri Office hours are complaining about work flexibility now, let alone with permanently shifting rosters, weekends, public holidays, Xmas etc. It is no wonder that the younger generation are walking away.
Having meaningful input to building their own roster would completely reverse that attitude.
Agree. Even at the higher/highest levels of the industry the lifestyle is not what it was 10-15 years ago. There has been no progress around rosters that leave people spent. In fact, my experience is that it has got more tiring with the recent introduction of popular rostering software. There is very little flexibility around roster options, it’s a one size fits all scenario most of the time when the reality is that one size doesn’t fit all. The result? The job is less attractive than it used to be right at the time when retirements are ramping up. Many forty-something Captains that I know are not planning on remaining in the industry longer than is absolutely necessary, ie they are Engineering an early retirement or change of career.
Having meaningful input to building their own roster would completely reverse that attitude.
Thread Starter
I’m not sure about other industries but maybe that’s a good point?
Personally I don’t care about prestige but I do care about pride. The pride I hold is affected by the modern methods of rostering because I am no longer as good as I can be. What I mean by that is that I used to be able to fly a roster AND keep across all changes to SOP’s, changes to law, revisit and refresh my systems knowledge, checklist procedures, investigate recurrent Notams in detail, and generally feel like I was on top of my game. Now, in 2018, by the time I have landed, driven home, said hello to my family and caught some sleep it is time to go again, often without ever making up the sleep I lost from the shift I have just finished. There is no time available to take myself from being ‘generally competent’ to being a proud professional. I have noticed that the folk who stand out as being completely on top of all the changes and updates either don’t have a family at home ( single or partner with no children) , or they prioritise work over family with the inevitable results.
The career could be completely changed for the better for only moderate cost if the airlines looked seriously at providing pilots with meaningful input to their rosters. Eg, busy phase of life with young kids at home? Choose a 75% roster and accept the 25% pay cut. Young and newly married wanting to buy a house? Choose an ‘unrestricted full roster’.Three years from retirement and financially sorted but still enjoy the flying? Choose a 50/50 roster and take the 50% pay cut. Night owl? Choose a preference for lates. Early bird? Choose a preference for earlies. Enjoy seeing different cities? Choose a preference for night stops.
it can be done for only a small outlay. It just takes the will.
Personally I don’t care about prestige but I do care about pride. The pride I hold is affected by the modern methods of rostering because I am no longer as good as I can be. What I mean by that is that I used to be able to fly a roster AND keep across all changes to SOP’s, changes to law, revisit and refresh my systems knowledge, checklist procedures, investigate recurrent Notams in detail, and generally feel like I was on top of my game. Now, in 2018, by the time I have landed, driven home, said hello to my family and caught some sleep it is time to go again, often without ever making up the sleep I lost from the shift I have just finished. There is no time available to take myself from being ‘generally competent’ to being a proud professional. I have noticed that the folk who stand out as being completely on top of all the changes and updates either don’t have a family at home ( single or partner with no children) , or they prioritise work over family with the inevitable results.
The career could be completely changed for the better for only moderate cost if the airlines looked seriously at providing pilots with meaningful input to their rosters. Eg, busy phase of life with young kids at home? Choose a 75% roster and accept the 25% pay cut. Young and newly married wanting to buy a house? Choose an ‘unrestricted full roster’.Three years from retirement and financially sorted but still enjoy the flying? Choose a 50/50 roster and take the 50% pay cut. Night owl? Choose a preference for lates. Early bird? Choose a preference for earlies. Enjoy seeing different cities? Choose a preference for night stops.
it can be done for only a small outlay. It just takes the will.
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Current Airline managers are doing their best to prove that Karl Marx was right.The deterioration of work-life style balance is becoming critical across the industry.I've been in the game for 35 years and never seen it so bad.Young ambitious people out there? Dont even think about it.
Thread Starter
I suspect that if a young ambitious person started their training tomorrow it might actually work out ok for them.
The graphic in the post above shows US retirements peaking in 2024, I imagine the demographics are fairly similar globally.
The airlines are going to have to try and keep their experienced Captains within their Airline as other Airlines try to lure them away over the next 5-10 years with bigger money and better rosters. When the numbers are crunched I am guessing that providing roster flexibility will be more cost effective than offering larger salaries. That’s my guess based on the fact that I would happily take a 10% pay cut to get another two days off per month, or even a 20% pay cut to get an extra 4 days off per month.
The graphic in the post above shows US retirements peaking in 2024, I imagine the demographics are fairly similar globally.
The airlines are going to have to try and keep their experienced Captains within their Airline as other Airlines try to lure them away over the next 5-10 years with bigger money and better rosters. When the numbers are crunched I am guessing that providing roster flexibility will be more cost effective than offering larger salaries. That’s my guess based on the fact that I would happily take a 10% pay cut to get another two days off per month, or even a 20% pay cut to get an extra 4 days off per month.