Pilot shortage
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So still convinced of Australian exceptionalism?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1J20XK
Perhaps Australia is no different.
Pay freezes?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1J20XK
Carriers such as Emirates and Australia’s Qantas Airways (QAN.AX) have poured resources into hiring, but struggled in recent months to use their jets as often as their business plans dictate because of training bottlenecks.
The high cost of pilot training and several years of earlier hiring freezes in markets like the United States and Australia have deterred potential aviators from entering an industry that Boeing says will need 637,000 more pilots over the next 20 years.
Airlines considered top employers in their home country, such as Qantas and IAG-owned British Airways, are not yet facing shortages of qualified applicants.
Pay freezes?
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Pilot Retirements Become A Major Issue In 2021
Airline pilot retirements at several of the US airlines begin to increase in 2021. Peak pilot retirements for American is 2023, Delta is 2022, United and Southwest are 2026. By the end of 2026, ~42% of the active pilot workforce at the five largest airlines will retire. On average, American leads the industry in pilot retirements with ~790 pilots retiring each year from now through 2026. We continue to expect pilots to be poached from the regional carriers to backfill the retirements at the mainline carriers. The regional carriers will need to aggressively recruit pilots in an attempt to navigate pilot attrition.
Last edited by stormfury; 9th Jun 2018 at 11:27.
Stormfury,
That's a pretty good report from a year ago and not much has changed since. Frankly, it merely does a more thorough job of documenting what's already been said in many other articles...lots of charts/graphs. And no solutions mentioned but that's not the focus of the article, I suppose.
Not too sure about the validity of the quoted statement below in recent (post-9/11 era) times. Maybe my memory isn't always too accurate. I do read the occasional statement about UAL having recently taken a few 1500-hour CFIs directly into mainline, much to the dismay of people who've toiled in regional hell for many years and can't even get an interview at a "major". Beyond that, I don't hear of any "major" airline hiring directly from "...small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”. Regionals, yes; majors, no. Correct me if I'm mistaken:
.“The US major carriers also hire from flight training academies and small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”
I remain confident seats will be filled. By whom ? Not sure. We'll see what HR people do about that; They always remind us only the "best" pilots are hired.
That's a pretty good report from a year ago and not much has changed since. Frankly, it merely does a more thorough job of documenting what's already been said in many other articles...lots of charts/graphs. And no solutions mentioned but that's not the focus of the article, I suppose.
Not too sure about the validity of the quoted statement below in recent (post-9/11 era) times. Maybe my memory isn't always too accurate. I do read the occasional statement about UAL having recently taken a few 1500-hour CFIs directly into mainline, much to the dismay of people who've toiled in regional hell for many years and can't even get an interview at a "major". Beyond that, I don't hear of any "major" airline hiring directly from "...small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”. Regionals, yes; majors, no. Correct me if I'm mistaken:
.“The US major carriers also hire from flight training academies and small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”
I remain confident seats will be filled. By whom ? Not sure. We'll see what HR people do about that; They always remind us only the "best" pilots are hired.
Last edited by bafanguy; 9th Jun 2018 at 20:39.
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Like a lot of places, they're big proponents of market forces, ... right up to the point that market forces are requiring them to do something they don't want to to. Like increase their pay scales.
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In the interim globalisation allowed outsourcing, offshoring of entire industries. Business leaders counted bonuses as labour costs fell, industry after another outsourced or sent overseas where there exist no such things as paid vacations, occupational work place standards and regulatory oversight.
Sadly for airline managers, globalisation is a two way street. Pilots are relatively mobile.
Like a lot of places, they're big proponents of market forces, ... right up to the point that market forces are requiring them to do something they don't want to to. Like increase their pay scales.
Again, the Achille's heel of their pilot model is unlimited supply. They will do everything before improving the supply by returning some of what they stripped out in the previous three decades.
Last edited by Rated De; 10th Jun 2018 at 08:56. Reason: typo
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Stormfury,
That's a pretty good report from a year ago and not much has changed since. Frankly, it merely does a more thorough job of documenting what's already been said in many other articles...lots of charts/graphs. And no solutions mentioned but that's not the focus of the article, I suppose.
Not too sure about the validity of the quoted statement below in recent (post-9/11 era) times. Maybe my memory isn't always too accurate. I do read the occasional statement about UAL having recently taken a few 1500-hour CFIs directly into mainline, much to the dismay of people who've toiled in regional hell for many years and can't even get an interview at a "major". Beyond that, I don't hear of any "major" airline hiring directly from "...small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”. Regionals, yes; majors, no. Correct me if I'm mistaken:
.“The US major carriers also hire from flight training academies and small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”
I remain confident seats will be filled. By whom ? Not sure. We'll see what HR people do about that; They always remind us only the "best" pilots are hired.
That's a pretty good report from a year ago and not much has changed since. Frankly, it merely does a more thorough job of documenting what's already been said in many other articles...lots of charts/graphs. And no solutions mentioned but that's not the focus of the article, I suppose.
Not too sure about the validity of the quoted statement below in recent (post-9/11 era) times. Maybe my memory isn't always too accurate. I do read the occasional statement about UAL having recently taken a few 1500-hour CFIs directly into mainline, much to the dismay of people who've toiled in regional hell for many years and can't even get an interview at a "major". Beyond that, I don't hear of any "major" airline hiring directly from "...small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”. Regionals, yes; majors, no. Correct me if I'm mistaken:
.“The US major carriers also hire from flight training academies and small regional flight clubs and flight schools…”
I remain confident seats will be filled. By whom ? Not sure. We'll see what HR people do about that; They always remind us only the "best" pilots are hired.
Yeah that report is a bit of a primer for the ongoing discussion. The solution is the hard, and initially expensive, part (cheaper than parking jets though).
That said, the solution starts with making some decisions the upper management echelons. I’d imagine share holders are well aware a shortage is imminent (globally at least) and can probably understand the requirement to invest in pilot training i the short-term - I’d hate to be having to throw money at pilot trading while simultaneously upgrading your fleet on the back of rising fuel prices. That might be a tough sell but I guess that’s why they’re on the big dollars.
Even if the airlines started training today there is still going to be some time (years?) before those youngsters are ready for the RHS. As always a ‘black swan’ event could occur that will cripple the industry (9/11, SARS etc) but I just don’t see something like that will have a long term impact on the required numbers.
The point you raise about CFIs is becoming all too familiar. They’re getting swept up into airlines/regionals/corporate precisely because of their CFI quals - a bit of ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’.
I’ll refrain from delving into the HR issue, it’s been covered and is unlikely to change until jets are being parked on a regular basis.
Im sure it’ll all work out, always does! I guess why the CEOs can justify their pay packets.
Cheers
SF
Thread Starter
That said, the solution starts with making some decisions the upper management echelons. I’d imagine share holders are well aware a shortage is imminent (globally at least) and can probably understand the requirement to invest in pilot training
There is a lot of value ( carrot) locked up by rigid rostering systems. Given the choice, pilot A might choose to work 2 weeks on 2 weeks off, while pilot B might work flat out chasing money, pilot C might opt for 3 weeks on, 1 week off. As it stands at most Airlines all three pilots have to work a full roster if they want a job, as a result, only one is content and not open to the idea of changing companies if a better lifestyle option comes along.
At first glance building roster options like this into a company looks expensive but it can and has been done to the benefit of both pilots and the company.
The company doesn’t necessarily have to pay the world to attract and hold pilots, they have yet to tap into the other side of the pay/lifestyle equation and I’d be surprised if some don’t head down this road.
Compelling reading that document on legacy US pilot Shortages. Add them to the dozens others have posted and continue to feature almost weekly.
Even the supreme and almighty leader Alan has said in the paper we will need 640,000 airline pilots in the next ten years. The great Alan admitting a shortage. Never would of thunk it. At $30 million a year you would expect brilliant insights though.
The highest average mainline USA wide body CPT is on $330 US per hour or $434.00 AUD per hour. That’s three carriers Paying that. It’s not an exception. It is year 10 company pay however that would be every CPT in Qantas and probably nearly every FO east of ADL!
Close to $400,000 a year base for a wide body CPT without including bonuses, pensions, simulators or allowances.
Deltas bonus scheme is close to 20% additional yearly salary. The last few years that’s meant about $68,000 additional per annum for CPTs. At least $500,000 AUD for a widebody Captain. Two Captains and two FO on Long Haul routes too.
That is current pay before the big shortage bites in 2021 and continues on for many years.
But I think the US airline pilots association has professional negotiators. I don’t think association leaders or negotiators go on to represent the company or become SCC or TC right after signing agreements either. I.E They use their position to better the members, rather than a stepping stone to a better company position. Power tends to corrupt however.
Any chance we could get these guys to negotiate our Short and Longhaul agreements? Not joking.
Even the supreme and almighty leader Alan has said in the paper we will need 640,000 airline pilots in the next ten years. The great Alan admitting a shortage. Never would of thunk it. At $30 million a year you would expect brilliant insights though.
The highest average mainline USA wide body CPT is on $330 US per hour or $434.00 AUD per hour. That’s three carriers Paying that. It’s not an exception. It is year 10 company pay however that would be every CPT in Qantas and probably nearly every FO east of ADL!
Close to $400,000 a year base for a wide body CPT without including bonuses, pensions, simulators or allowances.
Deltas bonus scheme is close to 20% additional yearly salary. The last few years that’s meant about $68,000 additional per annum for CPTs. At least $500,000 AUD for a widebody Captain. Two Captains and two FO on Long Haul routes too.
That is current pay before the big shortage bites in 2021 and continues on for many years.
But I think the US airline pilots association has professional negotiators. I don’t think association leaders or negotiators go on to represent the company or become SCC or TC right after signing agreements either. I.E They use their position to better the members, rather than a stepping stone to a better company position. Power tends to corrupt however.
Any chance we could get these guys to negotiate our Short and Longhaul agreements? Not joking.
Flight crew planning at an established legacy such as QF must be one of the easiest jobs going. No turnover with people leaving for other airlines, a certain percentage retiring or losing their licences on medical grounds, and limited expansion to plan for. So why the current mess ?
Understandable with a rapidly growing low cost at the mercy of recruitment from the majors who can decimate their pilot ranks just as new aircraft arrive and routes open but not for QF.
Understandable with a rapidly growing low cost at the mercy of recruitment from the majors who can decimate their pilot ranks just as new aircraft arrive and routes open but not for QF.
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Compelling reading that document on legacy US pilot Shortages. Add them to the dozens others have posted and continue to feature almost weekly.
Even the supreme and almighty leader Alan has said in the paper we will need 640,000 airline pilots in the next ten years. The great Alan admitting a shortage. Never would of thunk it. At $30 million a year you would expect brilliant insights though.
The highest average mainline USA wide body CPT is on $330 US per hour or $434.00 AUD per hour. That’s three carriers Paying that. It’s not an exception. It is year 10 company pay however that would be every CPT in Qantas and probably nearly every FO east of ADL!
Close to $400,000 a year base for a wide body CPT without including bonuses, pensions, simulators or allowances.
Deltas bonus scheme is close to 20% additional yearly salary. The last few years that’s meant about $68,000 additional per annum for CPTs. At least $500,000 AUD for a widebody Captain. Two Captains and two FO on Long Haul routes too.
That is current pay before the big shortage bites in 2021 and continues on for many years.
But I think the US airline pilots association has professional negotiators. I don’t think association leaders or negotiators go on to represent the company or become SCC or TC right after signing agreements either. I.E They use their position to better the members, rather than a stepping stone to a better company position. Power tends to corrupt however.
Any chance we could get these guys to negotiate our Short and Longhaul agreements? Not joking.
Even the supreme and almighty leader Alan has said in the paper we will need 640,000 airline pilots in the next ten years. The great Alan admitting a shortage. Never would of thunk it. At $30 million a year you would expect brilliant insights though.
The highest average mainline USA wide body CPT is on $330 US per hour or $434.00 AUD per hour. That’s three carriers Paying that. It’s not an exception. It is year 10 company pay however that would be every CPT in Qantas and probably nearly every FO east of ADL!
Close to $400,000 a year base for a wide body CPT without including bonuses, pensions, simulators or allowances.
Deltas bonus scheme is close to 20% additional yearly salary. The last few years that’s meant about $68,000 additional per annum for CPTs. At least $500,000 AUD for a widebody Captain. Two Captains and two FO on Long Haul routes too.
That is current pay before the big shortage bites in 2021 and continues on for many years.
But I think the US airline pilots association has professional negotiators. I don’t think association leaders or negotiators go on to represent the company or become SCC or TC right after signing agreements either. I.E They use their position to better the members, rather than a stepping stone to a better company position. Power tends to corrupt however.
Any chance we could get these guys to negotiate our Short and Longhaul agreements? Not joking.
FlightDeck, your only telling half the US story, let Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger tell the other half (advance the video to 1:40).
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Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger succinctly tells it as it is.
Unfortunately the Clerks professing to be the airline management of today find themselves, incapable, unwilling to listen let alone comprehend the future. They will continue to do so until such times aircraft sit upon the ground looking very nice but earning nil revenue. When this is coupled with falling bonuses then, and only then, might they be forced to actually do something.
Unfortunately the Clerks professing to be the airline management of today find themselves, incapable, unwilling to listen let alone comprehend the future. They will continue to do so until such times aircraft sit upon the ground looking very nice but earning nil revenue. When this is coupled with falling bonuses then, and only then, might they be forced to actually do something.
That said, the solution starts with making some decisions the upper management echelons.
Even if the airlines started training today there is still going to be some time (years?) before those youngsters are ready for the RHS.
The point you raise about CFIs is becoming all too familiar. They’re getting swept up into airlines/regionals/corporate precisely because of their CFI quals - a bit of ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’.
Even if the airlines started training today there is still going to be some time (years?) before those youngsters are ready for the RHS.
The point you raise about CFIs is becoming all too familiar. They’re getting swept up into airlines/regionals/corporate precisely because of their CFI quals - a bit of ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’.
SF,
Yep...all things start in the Head Shed.
The supply train here at least seems to be forming in a pattern like the recent University of North Dakota/UAL announcement...and is also a step toward solving the CFI issue. AA has its wholly-owned regionals with a flow, UAL has this program below (and maybe will implement something similar with other university av programs ?)...and Delta is rumored to be near announcing something "industry leading" probably along similar lines. With the extensive university av structure here, the mechanism is in place to supply quite a chunk of the future needs. And there's always street hiring.
Funding for all the students ? I have no idea but the offer of a pathway to a legacy carrier is a powerful carrot:
“Once a UND student is accepted into the program, no further structured interview is required with United. As long as the company is hiring pilots, UND students, who remain eligible, would be offered conditional employment with the airline.”
https://bismarcktribune.com/news/sta...fc3de7368.html
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A job and a degree is one thing but being paid a commensurate return for their investment is another.
The airlines can team up with colleges but it does little to effect the structural problem of underpayment leading to people choosing other career paths.
The airlines can team up with colleges but it does little to effect the structural problem of underpayment leading to people choosing other career paths.
Last edited by Professional Amateur; 13th Jun 2018 at 11:28. Reason: Grammar
I can't dispute your points. Lots of facets to this whole matter.
The interesting thing to follow is how the infrastructure is being arranged to meet the supply issue.
YouTube video is post GFC and almost Ten years old
[QUOTE=CurtainTwitcher;10170344]FlightDeck, your only telling half the US story, let Capt. "Sully" Sullenberger tell the other half (advance the video to 1:40).
That Committee hearing was in 2009. Almost 9 years ago. Right after the GFC too. Pilot pay at the top majors has risen significantly since then. I don’t think Airline C.E.O. pay was 30 million either to be fair.
As the Cowan study someone else posted quotes, “ As a result of the pilot shortage and the overall recovery in the airline industry, pilot pay has returned to pre-recession, pre-bankruptcy levels.”
Not suggesting that regional pay is not still poor. I was commenting on the majors, the increased pilot bonuses, pay increases and massive looming shortages.
That Committee hearing was in 2009. Almost 9 years ago. Right after the GFC too. Pilot pay at the top majors has risen significantly since then. I don’t think Airline C.E.O. pay was 30 million either to be fair.
As the Cowan study someone else posted quotes, “ As a result of the pilot shortage and the overall recovery in the airline industry, pilot pay has returned to pre-recession, pre-bankruptcy levels.”
Not suggesting that regional pay is not still poor. I was commenting on the majors, the increased pilot bonuses, pay increases and massive looming shortages.
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The difference is FlightDeck, I come from the perspective grander sweep of history that defines the current epoch of US airline Industrial Relations as the 1978 deregulation act. I believe that you need to temper what has occurred in the past four or five years in the US with the history of the previous thirty. The US industry went through the most violent, toxic brutal free-for-all bare knuckle bloody cage match fight to the death from 1978 onwards. There were literally no rules, you got away with whatever you could.
Pensions were stolen by investing in the companies own stock to prop up share prices, Oligarchs used airline employees as pawns to be slaughtered. The airlines were put into Chapter 11 reorganisation to allow bankruptcy judges to tear up work contracts, which they did. Even until recently, you had a significant number of US pilots furloughed from the majors to the far ends of the earth to earn a living. The volatility of employment wages and benefits is much more extreme, and necessitates and even allows much more aggressive tactics.
The US industry is a different environment, where you can simply vote to go on strike and cripple an operator without having to go cap in hand to the industrial relations umpire first. Equally, the operator can turn around and declare bankrupt, go into Chapter 11 and decimate wages and benefits. It is a classic boom and bust operating model of "pure capitalism". The US industry had another wildcard, a large supply of highly trained pilots leaving the military. This has now stopped, and in fact the US fighter pilot numbers are 25% below required strength.
The Australian landscape is different, unions have been emasculated much more than in the US. Quite frankly, our biggest bargaining strength is to get the required hours and leave. My understanding is the NZ outpost of QF has a 30% per annum turnover of pilots. These pilots don't even hide their plan to get the experience, switch seats and go elsewhere. A slower process, but one that works within the current rules imposed on us mere mortals by the business elite that have the ear of the legislators. Ultimately it will cost them, but until we can genuinely bargain without having both hands tied behind our backs we are at a power disadvantage.
Fair Work Commission orders NSW rail workers to abandon 24-hour strike 25 January 2018
Now the precedent is set, if any part of the population suffers in any way, the ability to withdraw labour can now be deemed illegal, should an employer or other party choose to take this to the FWA commission. I don't believe this is possible to any significant extent in the US.
Ironically, the Chinese Communist Party controlled State Owned Enterprises (SOE) airlines demonstrate almost pure capitalism by bidding up the market price of pilots to grow the industry there. However, good luck enforcing a contract if you are terminated unjustifiably from one of them through the Chinese court system.
In many ways, the $30 million you mention is right out of the US playbook of the raiders. One thing that springs to mind the audacious management buyout LBO attempt of 2005 by the former CEO. I am reminded of the such characters of Frank Lorenzo when I view both the current & former CEO. It is almost as if these two have read the history of the industry in the US as written by Thomas Petziner in (essential reading). In many ways, the former was much more in the mould of the swashbuckling pirate raiders of the US deregulation era than the current one.
Pensions were stolen by investing in the companies own stock to prop up share prices, Oligarchs used airline employees as pawns to be slaughtered. The airlines were put into Chapter 11 reorganisation to allow bankruptcy judges to tear up work contracts, which they did. Even until recently, you had a significant number of US pilots furloughed from the majors to the far ends of the earth to earn a living. The volatility of employment wages and benefits is much more extreme, and necessitates and even allows much more aggressive tactics.
The US industry is a different environment, where you can simply vote to go on strike and cripple an operator without having to go cap in hand to the industrial relations umpire first. Equally, the operator can turn around and declare bankrupt, go into Chapter 11 and decimate wages and benefits. It is a classic boom and bust operating model of "pure capitalism". The US industry had another wildcard, a large supply of highly trained pilots leaving the military. This has now stopped, and in fact the US fighter pilot numbers are 25% below required strength.
The Australian landscape is different, unions have been emasculated much more than in the US. Quite frankly, our biggest bargaining strength is to get the required hours and leave. My understanding is the NZ outpost of QF has a 30% per annum turnover of pilots. These pilots don't even hide their plan to get the experience, switch seats and go elsewhere. A slower process, but one that works within the current rules imposed on us mere mortals by the business elite that have the ear of the legislators. Ultimately it will cost them, but until we can genuinely bargain without having both hands tied behind our backs we are at a power disadvantage.
Fair Work Commission orders NSW rail workers to abandon 24-hour strike 25 January 2018
Just before 1.30pm on Thursday, the commission's senior deputy president Jonathan Hamberger ruled that both forms of industrial action "threaten to endanger the welfare of part of the population".
Ironically, the Chinese Communist Party controlled State Owned Enterprises (SOE) airlines demonstrate almost pure capitalism by bidding up the market price of pilots to grow the industry there. However, good luck enforcing a contract if you are terminated unjustifiably from one of them through the Chinese court system.
In many ways, the $30 million you mention is right out of the US playbook of the raiders. One thing that springs to mind the audacious management buyout LBO attempt of 2005 by the former CEO. I am reminded of the such characters of Frank Lorenzo when I view both the current & former CEO. It is almost as if these two have read the history of the industry in the US as written by Thomas Petziner in (essential reading). In many ways, the former was much more in the mould of the swashbuckling pirate raiders of the US deregulation era than the current one.
Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 13th Jun 2018 at 04:08.
If only those who say that pilots don't have the guts to go on strike in Australia read your post CT. The labour market has been hamstrung ever since the FWC was created.
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Whether red team or blue team, the ability of organised labour to withdraw their services even when legally protected is now almost impossible.
Qantas tested and found support in 2011 with the FWC for the lockout and termination provisions. This is precisely why Freehills wanted it that way and why Lucinda Holdforth is gagged.
Lacking a Chapter 11 restructure provision it is hypothesised and research has been published that Qantas manufactured a decline, establishing a narrative to support the ultimate objective: Establish complete workforce acquiescence.
Perhaps the lack of union resistance is axiomatic of this new reality. Unions have allowed this slow march to continue. The lessons of generations past long forgotten as union head after union head wanders along until magically absorbed by the major parties and ending up in Parliament.
One can be assured that the last thing employer groups will support is wage growth. As employer associations are big donors to the major political parties, be assured politicians don't want it either.