In regards to the issued ATPL's, anecdotally I would say very little are issued to Australians each year. This is because at one of the large schools at Moorabbin they have 150 or so students each year of which 70-80% are from overseas and most likely heading to a job overseas. Assuming there are 4-5 other large schools where the same happens, then there are probably lucky to be 150 local pilots who are issued with an ATPL each year. This is all anecdotal and I stand to be corrected, but I don't think I'm too far off the money.
What they really mean by pilot shortage is a shortage of pilots willing to accept crap pay and conditions. That's why the crap GA companies will struggle first, then it will move up the chain. I'm not a pilot, but if I was I don't know which Australian company I'd aspire to work for, as all have the same HR bullsh!t and treat you as a number and not a skilled employee. If I had a choice, I'd go for QF purely for the money.