Pig flu and an economic crisis...
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Got this in an email...
Don't know if this is just a sick coincidence but....
2007 - Chinese year of the Chicken - Bird Flu Pandemic devastates parts of Asia.
2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing.
2009 - Chinese year of the Pig - Swine Flu Pandemic kills hundreds of pigs and infects hundreds of people sometimes fatally around the globe.
Has any one else noticed this?
It gets worse........
Next year......
2010 - Chinese year of the Cock - what could possibly go wrong?
2007 - Chinese year of the Chicken - Bird Flu Pandemic devastates parts of Asia.
2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing.
2009 - Chinese year of the Pig - Swine Flu Pandemic kills hundreds of pigs and infects hundreds of people sometimes fatally around the globe.
Has any one else noticed this?
It gets worse........
Next year......
2010 - Chinese year of the Cock - what could possibly go wrong?
Grandpa Aerotart
Modelling and experience suggests that the Pandemic first wave will peak about 90 days after the start,
Chimbu, pandemics are apparently like slow motion train crashes, this thing is going to drag on for months. Just pray the bloody thing doesn't mutate into a more lethal version.
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Just pray the bloody thing doesn't mutate into a more lethal version.
, but you have hit the nail on the head with this comment. Yes Swine Flu itself is not a major problem most people have symptoms milder than a normal flu, I believe the major worry amongst medical professionals is an interaction between this strain and the seasonal influenza virus, which could mutate into something far more serious.Of course the normal influenza virus constantly mutates but when it can interact with a different variation originally from a non-human source the potential to mutate into something nasty is far higher.
At the end of the day though its part of life vruses and sicknesses come and go let's just ride the roller coaster! Best we can do is take normal basic Hygiene procedures, or lock ourselves away in a jungle camp somewhere?!
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Be Afraid, be very Afraid
ok the prime minister already pre-empt that when the containment is necessary (which is only a matter of time), one needs to be prepared for "disruption" I think loss of revenue is more of an appropriate phrase. It will also be inconveniently disrupt your balance sheets. Insurances will not reimburse loss of income in these sorts of situations.
Scenerios are already painted by the Federal government. Schools shut down, sports matches cancelled, workers stay home. Now what would happen to the borders? Yes Airports would be shut, flights all grounded.
Now if I remembered correctly, AJ had said that if the economy does not pick up, more deep cuts will result in the company.
If a pandemic is raised and borders shut, this would quantify and justify AJ's depper cuts into the already announced cuts. It would have come at a good time as management look to ways and excuses to cut staff and no one even the Union can than say anything.
Best case scenerio, a few days for shut borders and grounded air crafts. Worse case scenerio: unsure.
The economy has not picked up one bit since AJ last spoke to the media about the economy not picking up. With more debt and more deficits and more unemployment and more businesses going into the ground.
Air travel is the last priority as companies look to trim costs and families look to save, The rising Australian currency would mean less and less Americans would even contemplate traveling overseas. The European economy, along with Japan had contracted so much that Britain has lose its AAA credit rating as a country and Germany is struggling as well as Japan GDP is way below what it was after the nuclear bomb in Hiroshima.
The only hope once again, is China and of course Qantas has cut routes to China.
ok the prime minister already pre-empt that when the containment is necessary (which is only a matter of time), one needs to be prepared for "disruption" I think loss of revenue is more of an appropriate phrase. It will also be inconveniently disrupt your balance sheets. Insurances will not reimburse loss of income in these sorts of situations.
Scenerios are already painted by the Federal government. Schools shut down, sports matches cancelled, workers stay home. Now what would happen to the borders? Yes Airports would be shut, flights all grounded.
Now if I remembered correctly, AJ had said that if the economy does not pick up, more deep cuts will result in the company.
If a pandemic is raised and borders shut, this would quantify and justify AJ's depper cuts into the already announced cuts. It would have come at a good time as management look to ways and excuses to cut staff and no one even the Union can than say anything.
Best case scenerio, a few days for shut borders and grounded air crafts. Worse case scenerio: unsure.
The economy has not picked up one bit since AJ last spoke to the media about the economy not picking up. With more debt and more deficits and more unemployment and more businesses going into the ground.
Air travel is the last priority as companies look to trim costs and families look to save, The rising Australian currency would mean less and less Americans would even contemplate traveling overseas. The European economy, along with Japan had contracted so much that Britain has lose its AAA credit rating as a country and Germany is struggling as well as Japan GDP is way below what it was after the nuclear bomb in Hiroshima.
The only hope once again, is China and of course Qantas has cut routes to China.
THE Federal Government's decision to move to a containment stage to deal with swine flu will be disruptive but necessary, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.
Mr Rudd said he had been briefed by Australia's chief medical officer and there had been 13 confirmed cases of the virus in Australia to date.
"The Government has acted in response to each and every recommendation put to the government by the professional health authorities across our nation," he said.
"This will of course involve inconvenience to communities as certain schools are temporarily closed down."
Mr Rudd said he understood that would cause inconvenience to families.
"However, we also have the responsibility for the public health of the nation and therefore we will take whatever actions are necessary to underpin the public health of the nation," he said.
Mr Rudd said the Government would continue to maintain the "closest possible dialogue" between the chief medical officer and his counterparts in each state and territory.
"As anything further emerges on this front we will act appropriately and act decisively".
He said the Government had previously ensured the nation had a "substantial stock" of anti-virals.
"We are well served by the presence of that stock of anti-virals at this time."
Following swine flu deaths abroad the Government was taking the disease "deeply seriously", Mr Rudd said.
"Every effort by our public health authorities has been taken to avoid deaths at home."
The Government's overwhelming responsibility was to take necessary preventative and containment action to reduce the risk of any fatalities.
He said the CMO had advised that all "necessary and proper measures to support containment" were being taken.
Mr Rudd said he had been briefed by Australia's chief medical officer and there had been 13 confirmed cases of the virus in Australia to date.
"The Government has acted in response to each and every recommendation put to the government by the professional health authorities across our nation," he said.
"This will of course involve inconvenience to communities as certain schools are temporarily closed down."
Mr Rudd said he understood that would cause inconvenience to families.
"However, we also have the responsibility for the public health of the nation and therefore we will take whatever actions are necessary to underpin the public health of the nation," he said.
Mr Rudd said the Government would continue to maintain the "closest possible dialogue" between the chief medical officer and his counterparts in each state and territory.
"As anything further emerges on this front we will act appropriately and act decisively".
He said the Government had previously ensured the nation had a "substantial stock" of anti-virals.
"We are well served by the presence of that stock of anti-virals at this time."
Following swine flu deaths abroad the Government was taking the disease "deeply seriously", Mr Rudd said.
"Every effort by our public health authorities has been taken to avoid deaths at home."
The Government's overwhelming responsibility was to take necessary preventative and containment action to reduce the risk of any fatalities.
He said the CMO had advised that all "necessary and proper measures to support containment" were being taken.
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There is no more need to be afraid of an Influenza A pandemic than there is of EFATO. As with all risk mitigation there are well recognised methods available.
We do know however that an Influenza A pandemic has a probability of 1.
As with all risk management, we simply ensure we are aware of all the ssues get as much valid gen as we can, weigh up probability versus possible loss should any of a number of permutations come to pass and then prepare ourselves appropriately.
That level of preparation will decide the outcome should any potential risk be realised. For many the perceived risk will not be worth worrying about. For others it may be more worthy of their attnetion. It is for each to decide and then bear the cost of that decision.
Cheers,
Brad
We do know however that an Influenza A pandemic has a probability of 1.
As with all risk management, we simply ensure we are aware of all the ssues get as much valid gen as we can, weigh up probability versus possible loss should any of a number of permutations come to pass and then prepare ourselves appropriately.
That level of preparation will decide the outcome should any potential risk be realised. For many the perceived risk will not be worth worrying about. For others it may be more worthy of their attnetion. It is for each to decide and then bear the cost of that decision.
Cheers,
Brad
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Quote:
"2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing."
No, 2008 was Year of the Rat.
"2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing."
No, 2008 was Year of the Rat.
Geez, it's called a joke for a reason...
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Towering Q,
Yeah lol, at least I know Ebola will get me quick!
Heads Down, Can you translate your post again?
As with your other threads you sound like an angry, drunk, Singaporean going on about nothing?
Yeah lol, at least I know Ebola will get me quick!Heads Down, Can you translate your post again?
As with your other threads you sound like an angry, drunk, Singaporean going on about nothing?
Ban Non Essential Travel Right Now.
If we had a Government at State or Federal Level with any spine, they would ban non -essential travel right now and prescribe quarantine for essential travellers. They have the legal power to do that under the health act already.
The article referenced below describes the failure of the NSW Health Department to quarantine the cruise ship Pacific Dawn even though Fourteen people tested positive for H1N1 flu. The Victorian Government is now desperately trying to track down 36 Victorians from that cruise who flew back to Melbourne yesterday.
Anger over breach in swine flu quarantine | theage.com.au
I understand why the NSW Health Department failed to act. Cruise ships and Sydney tourism are big business and the NSW Government is corrupt from top to bottom, so what's to know?
The number of confirmed cases doubled overnight and will continue to double on a daily basis unless the Health authorities succeed in containing the outbreak. I don't think they have a hope in hell of doing so, especially with venal, corrupt operators like P&O cruises lobbying the Government about the negative effect of public health controls on business.
What is especially sad in my opinion is that their business, and airline travel, will be sunk anyway within Three weeks if this keeps spreading because no one but a complete idiot will be prepared to expose themselves to infection in an airport, aircraft or cruise ship very shortly. If public health efforts were made this minute, it might be possible to snuff this thing out and at least preserve domestic travel and tourism markets. It's being reported today that swine flu infection is now being excluded from travel insurance - which should send some people a message.
For those of you who think this Flu is no big deal, think again. This level of infectivity has not been seen since 1918. As predicted, air travel has seen it spread almost instantly around the world. The virus is at present causing "mild" disease, however "mild" is a relative term. If you have a pre existing condition it ain't "mild" and experience so far indicates 10% of cases require intensive hospital treatment including ventilation. This does not bode well for death rates when cases number in the millions and hospitals are swamped.
I will ignore the doom lovers who talk of H1N1 mixing with the Brisbane strain of seasonal flu, which is apparently quite severe, or worse still the H5N1 avian flu that kills 80% of those that get it. Having said that, I have to say folks, this is serious, and we ain't seen nothing yet. The Federal Government needs to take more action right now to stop venal corrupt state officials from sabotaging public health measures for economic reasons.
The article referenced below describes the failure of the NSW Health Department to quarantine the cruise ship Pacific Dawn even though Fourteen people tested positive for H1N1 flu. The Victorian Government is now desperately trying to track down 36 Victorians from that cruise who flew back to Melbourne yesterday.
Anger over breach in swine flu quarantine | theage.com.au
I understand why the NSW Health Department failed to act. Cruise ships and Sydney tourism are big business and the NSW Government is corrupt from top to bottom, so what's to know?
The number of confirmed cases doubled overnight and will continue to double on a daily basis unless the Health authorities succeed in containing the outbreak. I don't think they have a hope in hell of doing so, especially with venal, corrupt operators like P&O cruises lobbying the Government about the negative effect of public health controls on business.
What is especially sad in my opinion is that their business, and airline travel, will be sunk anyway within Three weeks if this keeps spreading because no one but a complete idiot will be prepared to expose themselves to infection in an airport, aircraft or cruise ship very shortly. If public health efforts were made this minute, it might be possible to snuff this thing out and at least preserve domestic travel and tourism markets. It's being reported today that swine flu infection is now being excluded from travel insurance - which should send some people a message.
For those of you who think this Flu is no big deal, think again. This level of infectivity has not been seen since 1918. As predicted, air travel has seen it spread almost instantly around the world. The virus is at present causing "mild" disease, however "mild" is a relative term. If you have a pre existing condition it ain't "mild" and experience so far indicates 10% of cases require intensive hospital treatment including ventilation. This does not bode well for death rates when cases number in the millions and hospitals are swamped.
I will ignore the doom lovers who talk of H1N1 mixing with the Brisbane strain of seasonal flu, which is apparently quite severe, or worse still the H5N1 avian flu that kills 80% of those that get it. Having said that, I have to say folks, this is serious, and we ain't seen nothing yet. The Federal Government needs to take more action right now to stop venal corrupt state officials from sabotaging public health measures for economic reasons.
The number of confirmed cases doubled overnight and will continue to double on a daily basis
Good god, this IS worse than I thought.
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I'm not trying to discredit Sunfish's points, but this may help show some perspective.
From today's Sydney Morning Herald letters page:
Unhealthy scaremongering
As someone who has studied the 1918-19 pandemic (and other influenza pandemics) I was appalled to see Mathew Varidel's letter (May 25), which only pours fuel on the bonfires of fear. The salient lesson of 1918 is that deaths were concentrated in countries where health and sanitary standards were low (half the toll was from India), in hospitals where large numbers of patients were concentrated (such as American military hospitals) and in groups of people already suffering respiratory problems.
Influenza deaths in Western countries declined across the 20th century, including in pandemics, probably due to improved overall health care. We have seen nothing yet which requires correction of the view that American influenza poses less threat to life in Western nations than normal seasonal influenza. It is good to be vigilant, but biomedical science is no place for scaremongering.
Dr Paul Foley Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute, Randwick
From today's Sydney Morning Herald letters page:
Unhealthy scaremongering
As someone who has studied the 1918-19 pandemic (and other influenza pandemics) I was appalled to see Mathew Varidel's letter (May 25), which only pours fuel on the bonfires of fear. The salient lesson of 1918 is that deaths were concentrated in countries where health and sanitary standards were low (half the toll was from India), in hospitals where large numbers of patients were concentrated (such as American military hospitals) and in groups of people already suffering respiratory problems.
Influenza deaths in Western countries declined across the 20th century, including in pandemics, probably due to improved overall health care. We have seen nothing yet which requires correction of the view that American influenza poses less threat to life in Western nations than normal seasonal influenza. It is good to be vigilant, but biomedical science is no place for scaremongering.
Dr Paul Foley Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute, Randwick
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Just heard on radio today that
all Australian Travel Insurances had now added a new clause to their policies
They will not pay anything that is associated to H1N1 or Swine flu virus, including but not limited to diagnosis, treatment, observation, hospital stays, associated quarantine costs, evacuation, prescription, travel plans disrupted as a result of H1N1 whether direct or indirect.
So there you have it, one more reason to cancel travel plans, you could be stuck with a huge debt as no insurance in Australia will cover it.
As this was only announced today, the radio commentator believes that in the coming months, many travel plans will be canceled as no one would want to bear that kind of costs
As this starts trickling down, you will see the travel industry suffer even more.
basically, insurance companies even thinks it is bad business to cover this kind of risk. They would rather cover floods in Queensland than this tells me that this is a very big risk factor for insurance companies to stop their coverage on this.
Japan has been very sensitive to this and their government has urged their citizens not to travel at all. And the recent outbreak in cruise ship had got them scared so much they have canceled many of their group tours.
This is only the beginning.
all Australian Travel Insurances had now added a new clause to their policies
They will not pay anything that is associated to H1N1 or Swine flu virus, including but not limited to diagnosis, treatment, observation, hospital stays, associated quarantine costs, evacuation, prescription, travel plans disrupted as a result of H1N1 whether direct or indirect.
So there you have it, one more reason to cancel travel plans, you could be stuck with a huge debt as no insurance in Australia will cover it.
As this was only announced today, the radio commentator believes that in the coming months, many travel plans will be canceled as no one would want to bear that kind of costs
As this starts trickling down, you will see the travel industry suffer even more.
basically, insurance companies even thinks it is bad business to cover this kind of risk. They would rather cover floods in Queensland than this tells me that this is a very big risk factor for insurance companies to stop their coverage on this.
Japan has been very sensitive to this and their government has urged their citizens not to travel at all. And the recent outbreak in cruise ship had got them scared so much they have canceled many of their group tours.
This is only the beginning.
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Swine Flu Psychosis Q&A
Q. Who catches Swine Flu Psychosis?
A. People who work in the newsrooms of media organisations
Q. Can it be stopped and are there lasting effects?
A. No it can't be stopped, sadly it must run it's course. Swine Flu Psychosis can cause melancholia and alienation - not in those who are infected but in members of the public who consume media content.
Q. What are the symptoms?
A. Loss of meaning. Boredom. Feverish rocking backwards and forward in the one spot. Depressed fixation on banal trivia. Tiredness.
Q. Should Swine Flu Psychosis victims be quarantined?
A. NO!!! That's what caused the outbreak in the first place. They should be forced to mix with a wider range of people.
Acknowledgments to Michael Leunig "The Age" Melbourne 27/05
A. People who work in the newsrooms of media organisations
Q. Can it be stopped and are there lasting effects?
A. No it can't be stopped, sadly it must run it's course. Swine Flu Psychosis can cause melancholia and alienation - not in those who are infected but in members of the public who consume media content.
Q. What are the symptoms?
A. Loss of meaning. Boredom. Feverish rocking backwards and forward in the one spot. Depressed fixation on banal trivia. Tiredness.
Q. Should Swine Flu Psychosis victims be quarantined?
A. NO!!! That's what caused the outbreak in the first place. They should be forced to mix with a wider range of people.
Acknowledgments to Michael Leunig "The Age" Melbourne 27/05
Let's hope Leunig is right.
Let's prepare ourselves in case he is not.
The issue with the virus is not it's lethality, it's the strain that this bug could put on our overall health system if there are a massive number of cases.
Let's prepare ourselves in case he is not.
The issue with the virus is not it's lethality, it's the strain that this bug could put on our overall health system if there are a massive number of cases.
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I was having a conversation with a family member yesterday about travel plans they have in July. They inquired if I thought they should cancel their travel plans due to the h1n1 outbreak. This person is fairly level headed, and I would consider to be very typical middle class aussie (I said "no", BTW).
If this person is, indeed, representative of the 'average' view, then the travel industry is in for a VERY rough time in the near term.
It surprised me.
If this person is, indeed, representative of the 'average' view, then the travel industry is in for a VERY rough time in the near term.
It surprised me.