State of Virgin Blue
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Aircraft in fleet up 30.4%
Pax numbers up 10.7%
LF down 2.4%
I hear what you are saying about extra aircraft but the LF are holding up. I would have a guess and say that VBA are on track to meet forcast P&L figures posted in DEC barring the GFC worsening, SwFlu, or anything else that gets thrown at them.
VA has the cheapest staff by far operating over the Pacific something that I think has been commented on here already
Fuel and plane costs would be relatively the same as well as airport handling fees. Wages are the point of difference on the route and will be the difference going forward. The only way QF was able to compete in the past with regards to this was to create J*. I doubt they are willing to try it on the SYD-LAX route. So in the mean time QF LH will be suffering. QCCA will help but not enough in the short term.
I am not saying that VA have done the right thing by driving wages down but it is an industry that has far to much glamour for whats actually involved. So you will find people that are willing to undercut others just to see what all the fuss is about. Sooner or later they will realise and move on, others will be happy with the T&C no matter how low you go.
Pax numbers up 10.7%
LF down 2.4%
I hear what you are saying about extra aircraft but the LF are holding up. I would have a guess and say that VBA are on track to meet forcast P&L figures posted in DEC barring the GFC worsening, SwFlu, or anything else that gets thrown at them.
VA has the cheapest staff by far operating over the Pacific something that I think has been commented on here already
Fuel and plane costs would be relatively the same as well as airport handling fees. Wages are the point of difference on the route and will be the difference going forward. The only way QF was able to compete in the past with regards to this was to create J*. I doubt they are willing to try it on the SYD-LAX route. So in the mean time QF LH will be suffering. QCCA will help but not enough in the short term.
I am not saying that VA have done the right thing by driving wages down but it is an industry that has far to much glamour for whats actually involved. So you will find people that are willing to undercut others just to see what all the fuss is about. Sooner or later they will realise and move on, others will be happy with the T&C no matter how low you go.
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You are all correct in wondering how VB is still operating. I have it on good authority that the Government is supporting VB financially. They realise that if VB folds Qantas and Jetstar would have a monopoly over the Australian aviation arena. How long this support will go on for remains to be seen???
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TEN
- that's a big call
- and I would think apart from a few Air Services token waivers and those ongoing (some expired) dispensations (no correspondence pls wirgin) it is highly unlikely.
care to elaborate?
- that's a big call
- and I would think apart from a few Air Services token waivers and those ongoing (some expired) dispensations (no correspondence pls wirgin) it is highly unlikely.
care to elaborate?
Whispering "T" Jet
They realise that if VB folds Qantas and Jetstar would have a monopoly over the Australian aviation arena.
I have it on good authority that the Government is supporting VB financially.
Sounds like a mischievous wind up to me!
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I have it on good authority that the Government is supporting VB financially.
The Virgin Blue group of airlines are doing OK.
Re-started MEL-DRW last week (mainly a freight contract, any PAX are just extra revenue) and added DRW-PER same day, PAX loads are about 80% on this one.
Next up is MEL-DPS & SYD-DPS and added services ADL-DPS
BTW what happened to the Darwin refueller on Tuesday afternoon?
The capt came on the blower with the usual flight details etc and said there was a fuel problem which would delay the departure to MEL.
The fuel problem was that the plane didn't have any fuel, and the refueller wouldn't be at the aircraft until 18:20 for a 18:15 departure, finally got away at 18:35.
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I have it on good authority that the Government is supporting VB financially.
TENTOTEN please elaborate. As others say this is a big call. If anything, I would have thought the secretary of Dept Infrastructure rings VB up everytime the share price goes down to check that they are still operating ok. I doubt financial assistance has actually taken place.
As for other financial figures discussed above. LF may be ok but lets not forget that ticket prices are way down, so revenue is substantially less.
TENTOTEN please elaborate. As others say this is a big call. If anything, I would have thought the secretary of Dept Infrastructure rings VB up everytime the share price goes down to check that they are still operating ok. I doubt financial assistance has actually taken place.
As for other financial figures discussed above. LF may be ok but lets not forget that ticket prices are way down, so revenue is substantially less.
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Also, regarding Tiger being the nail in VB's coffin - something that has been overlooked is that SQ's deep pockets are getting shallower by the day as they suffer the financial meltdown and major fall in premium traffic. I read the other day that they had dropped all their prices by about 20% (can't remember where I read that).
If SQ is bleeding cash on their own, how long are they going to continue to fund Tigers 'charity' fares in oz - we all know that Tiger is losing money at present.
The oz airline world is fast turning into the GA bankrunning / freight world, where a new company would come on the scene and run at a loss to get the business, then once they have got it they jack the prices up - if they don't go broke in the meantime.... and all the while paying their staff (not just pilots) below award and asking them to bend rules to get the job done.
The Chef
If SQ is bleeding cash on their own, how long are they going to continue to fund Tigers 'charity' fares in oz - we all know that Tiger is losing money at present.
The oz airline world is fast turning into the GA bankrunning / freight world, where a new company would come on the scene and run at a loss to get the business, then once they have got it they jack the prices up - if they don't go broke in the meantime.... and all the while paying their staff (not just pilots) below award and asking them to bend rules to get the job done.
The Chef
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There are several ways a government can support a particular airline without making a direct cash input.
I wonder if there was a tender out that Qantas, Jetstar or VB all satisfied the the tender requirements who would win the tender???
I wonder if there was a tender out that Qantas, Jetstar or VB all satisfied the the tender requirements who would win the tender???
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Load factors are only a small part of the picture... what matters is yield. VB may have 60% load factors but they need dollar revenue, not passenger numbers. Throw in critically low forward bookings, high debt loading from new aircraft, and creditors may start to question solvency.
Hopefully here's a bottom to all this!
Hopefully here's a bottom to all this!
I'm very interested to see how it goes, especially in light of the global pandemic and scare mongring out of the Americas.
VB may be doing ok with loads but its yields may not be commensuate with its cost structure. Delta would be very brave to approach the trans-pacific market, though stranger things have happened and I can see overall capacity maintaining the status quo, even if QF retires a percentage of its long haul aircraft, but the stage is set for load factors to decline in a big way.
Lets look... VB is treading lightly in financial negative territory, but if the pacific runs are decimated because of swine flu, I think we may see the end of VB and VA, in its current form anyway.
The managers are very good. They raised collateral by selling 5 737 then leasing them back forsaking assets, but even they couldn't predict swine and in the end is only a fairly big band aid, but a band aid none the less.
In the end it will be who has the deepest pockets and I have to say that QF will win this death match, even if it and it LCC offshoot look a shade of their former selves by the end of the forthcoming blood bath.
VB may be doing ok with loads but its yields may not be commensuate with its cost structure. Delta would be very brave to approach the trans-pacific market, though stranger things have happened and I can see overall capacity maintaining the status quo, even if QF retires a percentage of its long haul aircraft, but the stage is set for load factors to decline in a big way.
Lets look... VB is treading lightly in financial negative territory, but if the pacific runs are decimated because of swine flu, I think we may see the end of VB and VA, in its current form anyway.
The managers are very good. They raised collateral by selling 5 737 then leasing them back forsaking assets, but even they couldn't predict swine and in the end is only a fairly big band aid, but a band aid none the less.
In the end it will be who has the deepest pockets and I have to say that QF will win this death match, even if it and it LCC offshoot look a shade of their former selves by the end of the forthcoming blood bath.
Last edited by Bula; 3rd May 2009 at 08:16.
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I understand that the Defence force tender was done on a restricted tender basis. Qantas being the only tenderer. As for financial assistance to VB all you have to look at is the demise of Ansett to see what sort of money Governments hand out to airlines.
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Hand out to airlines, well some just keep getting wonderful handouts, with a wave of a wand, Keating gave Australian Airlines to Qantas in the early 90's, no problem and absolved the 750 million debt AA had thanks to the Aussie taxpayer, just one more free kick for the privileged few.
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The only concessions I recall, were Payroll Tax concessions by the QLD government? If my memory serves me correctly, wasn't that one of the lures for VB to set up the operation out of BNE as opposed to MEL in the early days of VB's Aussie ops.
If the concessions are still applied, don't know?
If the concessions are still applied, don't know?
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Also, regarding Tiger being the nail in VB's coffin - something that has been overlooked is that SQ's deep pockets are getting shallower by the day as they suffer the financial meltdown and major fall in premium traffic. I read the other day that they had dropped all their prices by about 20% (can't remember where I read that).
If SQ is bleeding cash on their own, how long are they going to continue to fund Tigers 'charity' fares in oz - we all know that Tiger is losing money at present.
The Chef
If SQ is bleeding cash on their own, how long are they going to continue to fund Tigers 'charity' fares in oz - we all know that Tiger is losing money at present.
The Chef
The Virgin Blue group of airlines are doing OK