Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
New Routes Yet To Be Announced By VA
Not sure if it fits in here, but i couldn't find the other "new routes" thread
Anyhow, there are a few new routes in the pipeline that even the the VA staff have yet to be briefed on, which might affect the VB share price.
They are:
SYD - Centrelink Office
MEL - Centrelink Office
BNE - Centrelink Office
No pax, no freight. Just employees looking for a payrise.
Anyhow, there are a few new routes in the pipeline that even the the VA staff have yet to be briefed on, which might affect the VB share price.
They are:
SYD - Centrelink Office
MEL - Centrelink Office
BNE - Centrelink Office
No pax, no freight. Just employees looking for a payrise.
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Wow Sids & Stars what a great post. I am always amazed at the number of Vultures that want to circle any airline they don't like. Being in the Eastern state sort of gets you ready for the 3rd world scenario I expect. Certainly the wages are back in the 80s. With Air NZ a state run enterprise one can feel superior (although it should have gone down in 2001 because of so many reasons). Enjoy your command on first officer rates.....................
Have little to contribute other than...
I expect to lose my house on the count of BGs incompetance. His booming grin and constant BS just adds insult to injury, and I can only wish that what goes around, comes around his (and his incompetant cronies) way.
I expect to lose my house on the count of BGs incompetance. His booming grin and constant BS just adds insult to injury, and I can only wish that what goes around, comes around his (and his incompetant cronies) way.
Coaldemon,
Where did i say i didn't like V Oz?
How do you know i'm not a V Oz employee??
Good luck to you and anyone else who is unfortunate enough to be flying in aeroplane with you @ the controls.
Where did i say i didn't like V Oz?
How do you know i'm not a V Oz employee??
Good luck to you and anyone else who is unfortunate enough to be flying in aeroplane with you @ the controls.
Last edited by SIDS N STARS; 6th Mar 2009 at 14:23.
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Yes HK is next on the list for late 09 at the moment may change, with two more near firm routes after that in the pipe line, all depends on the economy . Virgin pilots inters start next week and loads not bad, including freight. Turbine blades on all aircraft are being fine tuned for 
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airtags - Jungle jets already have 3 CC as the max seats is 104 (3x36=108). They are considering trying to get it down to 2 on the 170's and at the moment due to GEC/GFC could possibly get the Fed Govt to agree due to the strain in the economy.
I would also imagine that they will be lobbying pretty hard to get the ratio of 1-36 changed for good. The rest of the world copes with 1-50 and if they could get something like that through then they could save about 25% of the CC wages bill which is only chump change at the moment but it gets the costs down even further at the expense of safety.
As far as funding goes VB won't go to the market for cash as stated by SRB - he doesn't want share dillution. What will happen when QF go back for another $500 million in 6 months time.
VB is at least getting there costs down as low as they can. QF on the other hand is just asking shareholders to bail out the company. There will be a limit on that. Especially if they then turn around and pay massive bonuses like Pacific Brands.
I would also imagine that they will be lobbying pretty hard to get the ratio of 1-36 changed for good. The rest of the world copes with 1-50 and if they could get something like that through then they could save about 25% of the CC wages bill which is only chump change at the moment but it gets the costs down even further at the expense of safety.
As far as funding goes VB won't go to the market for cash as stated by SRB - he doesn't want share dillution. What will happen when QF go back for another $500 million in 6 months time.
VB is at least getting there costs down as low as they can. QF on the other hand is just asking shareholders to bail out the company. There will be a limit on that. Especially if they then turn around and pay massive bonuses like Pacific Brands.
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SMH article today
Discounted fares are now the domain of Jetstar and Tiger Airways, writes Clive Dorman. The flood of cheap discount air fares in Australia has slowed to a trickle and one player, Virgin Blue, has all but officially ruled itself out of the ultra-cheap fares business.
Massive losses caused by last year's surge in jet fuel prices, followed by the contraction in consumer demand caused by the world economic crisis, have left just one big player, Jetstar, in Australia's discount domestic air-fare business, challenged only by the niche low-cost carrier Tiger Airways, which flies to limited destinations from Melbourne and Adelaide.
To use its own terminology, Virgin Blue is "hoarding cash" after its first big loss in Australia - more than $100 million in the second half of last year - and says it can't afford to continue to throw away seats for next to nothing.
Virgin Blue, which has switched its focus in the past three years from backpackers to business flyers, has little left in the kitty after spending $60 million on the launch of its new long-haul airline, V Australia. It has begun flying between Sydney and Los Angeles and will soon link LA with Brisbane and Melbourne.
After introducing a flood of new domestic seats and routes in the past year, Virgin Blue is putting the brakes on its expansion and will begin cutting back its network and frequencies. The airline has invested heavily in the perks required to attract business travellers, such as valet parking, lounges, a frequent-flyer scheme and live in-flight television, but that market has been hit by the global economic crisis.
Even though Virgin Blue still thinks of itself as a low-cost carrier, seats on Virgin Blue are about 20 per cent dearer to operate than those of its once-chief rival, Jetstar.
"At the moment we're very happy to discount but the discounted fares out there will be difficult to sustain with the level of capacity that we have," Virgin Blue's chief executive officer, Brett Godfrey says.
In February, meanwhile, Tiger Airways grounded between a third and half of its regular schedules from Melbourne, creating rumours that the loss-making low-cost carrier was on its knees. But Tiger boss Tony Davis denied the rumours and accused Qantas of starting them. Davis said the flight cutbacks were "seasonal reductions" and its full schedule has been restored. Tiger opened its second base in Adelaide last week and has launched a raft of new services from the South Australian capital.
Jetstar, meanwhile, is adding new flights from Perth and taking over Qantas's domestic operation in New Zealand.
"We are viewing the current environment as a glass half-full," says Jetstar spokesman Simon Westaway. "We think consumer spending power is going to improve if people maintain their jobs. We think that travel is going to remain a part of many people's household budgets."
Massive losses caused by last year's surge in jet fuel prices, followed by the contraction in consumer demand caused by the world economic crisis, have left just one big player, Jetstar, in Australia's discount domestic air-fare business, challenged only by the niche low-cost carrier Tiger Airways, which flies to limited destinations from Melbourne and Adelaide.
To use its own terminology, Virgin Blue is "hoarding cash" after its first big loss in Australia - more than $100 million in the second half of last year - and says it can't afford to continue to throw away seats for next to nothing.
Virgin Blue, which has switched its focus in the past three years from backpackers to business flyers, has little left in the kitty after spending $60 million on the launch of its new long-haul airline, V Australia. It has begun flying between Sydney and Los Angeles and will soon link LA with Brisbane and Melbourne.
After introducing a flood of new domestic seats and routes in the past year, Virgin Blue is putting the brakes on its expansion and will begin cutting back its network and frequencies. The airline has invested heavily in the perks required to attract business travellers, such as valet parking, lounges, a frequent-flyer scheme and live in-flight television, but that market has been hit by the global economic crisis.
Even though Virgin Blue still thinks of itself as a low-cost carrier, seats on Virgin Blue are about 20 per cent dearer to operate than those of its once-chief rival, Jetstar.
"At the moment we're very happy to discount but the discounted fares out there will be difficult to sustain with the level of capacity that we have," Virgin Blue's chief executive officer, Brett Godfrey says.
In February, meanwhile, Tiger Airways grounded between a third and half of its regular schedules from Melbourne, creating rumours that the loss-making low-cost carrier was on its knees. But Tiger boss Tony Davis denied the rumours and accused Qantas of starting them. Davis said the flight cutbacks were "seasonal reductions" and its full schedule has been restored. Tiger opened its second base in Adelaide last week and has launched a raft of new services from the South Australian capital.
Jetstar, meanwhile, is adding new flights from Perth and taking over Qantas's domestic operation in New Zealand.
"We are viewing the current environment as a glass half-full," says Jetstar spokesman Simon Westaway. "We think consumer spending power is going to improve if people maintain their jobs. We think that travel is going to remain a part of many people's household budgets."
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We think consumer spending power is going to improve if people maintain their jobs. We think that travel is going to remain a part of many people's household budgets."
if you are worried about losing your job the last thing you are going to do is book a holiday.Things are going to be tight for a while yet until everyone gets bored with the media and starts spending again and the cycle will start all over again.
How long that takes is anyones guess.
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Lets not rewrite history- AN debacle spawned VB and pay for endorsement etc. VB benefitted, we as a pilot group didn't. Who knows what's around the corner? 
Remember BG saying AN's demise was good for the travelling public and we are keeping the air fare. Not so fair now?
I guarantee the next will be the "dirty tricks" being undertaken by VB's competitors. Tongue in cheek. Standard Virgin response. Except VB aren't the underdogs anymore. Success can be a curse.
Remember BG saying AN's demise was good for the travelling public and we are keeping the air fare. Not so fair now?I guarantee the next will be the "dirty tricks" being undertaken by VB's competitors. Tongue in cheek. Standard Virgin response. Except VB aren't the underdogs anymore. Success can be a curse.
Last edited by markontop; 7th Mar 2009 at 00:44.
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Mark, VB were around before AN went under. Whilst the collapse of AN spared QF the worst of the post 9/11 trauma, it put a large number of Australian pilots out of work and willing to take whatever was offerred for a chance to stay in Australia. It is the reason why Jetstar was able to expand and undermine the only airline left with decent T&C's, namely Qantas mainline.
The same thing may be about to happen again and it won't be good for any VB, QF or Jetstar pilots.
I don't want to give them ideas, but you don't have to look far on this forum to see the possibilities.
The same thing may be about to happen again and it won't be good for any VB, QF or Jetstar pilots.
I don't want to give them ideas, but you don't have to look far on this forum to see the possibilities.
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Thanks C K, my point was, yes I realize VB were around before AN folded but they took pay for endoresment, uniforms etc to the market place when the industry was short of pilots. So before 9/11 the rot had started. Jetstar only continued it. People did not have to work for them (VB) to stay in Aus. At the time QF, AN and even Kendell were recruiting.
So as for VB and the threat of reduced T&C's may I say with respect "you started it".
May I rephrase the AN disaster emboldened VB making pay as you start the new status quo. Supply and demand.
So as for VB and the threat of reduced T&C's may I say with respect "you started it".
May I rephrase the AN disaster emboldened VB making pay as you start the new status quo. Supply and demand.
Last edited by markontop; 7th Mar 2009 at 00:43.
im sparticus. The info supplied by Aspect Financial Pty Ltd. I assume they are expecting a 1.75c dividend later in the year. Another report suggests no dividends from VB before 2012 at the earliest.
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tsalta. Where did you obtain your Debt/Equity ratio's for VB and QF ?. Are
you suggesting VB are close to insolvent ?
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tsalta. Where did you obtain your Debt/Equity ratio's for VB and QF ?. Are
you suggesting VB are close to insolvent ?
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wirgen - my point exactly - whether it's 1:36 or 1:50 still comes down to the important bit in an emergency and as you stated, in the case of the Embraers it's 3 crew to evac 4 doors & overwings.........
....... and of course the push to reduce on other types. VB is of course not alone in this regard and I'm sure QF would love to dump R2X on the 737 fleet.
We all need to make sure that the current downturn is not used as a polies' panama flag for operators to leverage unfavourable workplace reforms and dispensations.
As you said the saving of dropping one cabin crew is chump change but the motives are much more than a saving of a few immediate dollars.
All staff should help streamline the business and look for efficiency savings - but let's really protect those things that are sometimes seen by management as expendable 'soft' safety contingencies. In the case of of the passenger cabin, I firmly believe minimum safety calls for one crew member for each primary door - and the successful evac incidents seem to prove this position correct.
Public confidence = positive revenue (sales) & a higher liklihood of the yeild on shares heading skyward (or at least getting off the ground)
AT
....... and of course the push to reduce on other types. VB is of course not alone in this regard and I'm sure QF would love to dump R2X on the 737 fleet.
We all need to make sure that the current downturn is not used as a polies' panama flag for operators to leverage unfavourable workplace reforms and dispensations.
As you said the saving of dropping one cabin crew is chump change but the motives are much more than a saving of a few immediate dollars.
All staff should help streamline the business and look for efficiency savings - but let's really protect those things that are sometimes seen by management as expendable 'soft' safety contingencies. In the case of of the passenger cabin, I firmly believe minimum safety calls for one crew member for each primary door - and the successful evac incidents seem to prove this position correct.
Public confidence = positive revenue (sales) & a higher liklihood of the yeild on shares heading skyward (or at least getting off the ground)
AT
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B772,
I calculated both ratios from the half yearly reports from QF and VB.
I'm not suggesting VB are insolvent. I was abstractly pointing out how the figures given in glossy brochures and directors presentations need to be read very closely to ascertain their true meaning.
The real information comes from the black and white financial statements, not the colour brochure. This is because the brochures are not signed to accounting standards and are open for 'spin' whereas the financial reports are signed off by auditors. I rarely believe anything a company prints in colour.
For instance, some one might read 'Gearing Adjusted Net Debt/Adjusted Net Debt Plus Equity - 66%' in the glossy and assume it to be the company's Debt/Equity ratio. Well, how wrong could you be as the debt/equity is in the vicinity of 450%.
One test for solvency is the Assets/Liabilities ratio which is completely different to Debt/Equity. Although, one ratio is a massive oversimplification for the determination of solvency.
Debt/Equity = Total Liabilities / Equity
tsalta
I calculated both ratios from the half yearly reports from QF and VB.
I'm not suggesting VB are insolvent. I was abstractly pointing out how the figures given in glossy brochures and directors presentations need to be read very closely to ascertain their true meaning.
The real information comes from the black and white financial statements, not the colour brochure. This is because the brochures are not signed to accounting standards and are open for 'spin' whereas the financial reports are signed off by auditors. I rarely believe anything a company prints in colour.
For instance, some one might read 'Gearing Adjusted Net Debt/Adjusted Net Debt Plus Equity - 66%' in the glossy and assume it to be the company's Debt/Equity ratio. Well, how wrong could you be as the debt/equity is in the vicinity of 450%.
One test for solvency is the Assets/Liabilities ratio which is completely different to Debt/Equity. Although, one ratio is a massive oversimplification for the determination of solvency.
Debt/Equity = Total Liabilities / Equity
tsalta
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Tsalta, Your analogy is good but I have to disagree that they are insolvent. By reconing then where would have QF been today had Alco had their way? No one is immune in the world of Venture Capitalism.
VB are maintainig their repayments, bankers arent too nervous just as yet because of their share price alone otherwise their would have lent their shares for short selling. These guys employ and we shall hope some brains(questionable as proven) that they have a stop/loss margin before they start with the cutting of the umbilical cord. What management did/do with their earnings is another story. They say they invested in expansion. They are trying to dress up VB as and new world carrier hoping that someone like a sovereign wealth fund would take notice of their great idea. Hope the dice will roll for them.
Before you write VB off '' insolvent '' just as yet, and consider the basics, VB have a market share, a brand, a network and positive cash flow. What would prevent SQ from buying VB? That's another debate. But if they did, they can make VB a direct competitor to QF by making VB a proper carrier and VB can offer the same service at a lower cost base, and since they have Tiger then they can battle the bottom out with Jetstar. I can only guess who will win if I can put it that wayWhat would happen to QF then? So in this world none is certain, and by no means is VB another Ansett. Ansett was too expensive for anyone but they had to sell it to ANZ just to stop SQ coming in.(another debate) I would bet my bottom dollar that once SQ dispenses with Virgin Atlantic for which Lufti is so keen on, then VB would pose a great proposition for the Asian market consolidation, and at a bargain price.And it would make sense unless everyone in Australia can swallow their pride and amalgamate the industry into one big company for the sake of Labor's mantra(and everyone else's on here)'' Aussie jobs for Aussies'' , ''buy Australian'' etc, as at the moment protectionism is on the rise once again despite the''Globalisation'' benefits perpetuated by the only ones that stood to benefit form its introduction in the fist place=Venture capitalists not you or me. Just another view.
VB are maintainig their repayments, bankers arent too nervous just as yet because of their share price alone otherwise their would have lent their shares for short selling. These guys employ and we shall hope some brains(questionable as proven) that they have a stop/loss margin before they start with the cutting of the umbilical cord. What management did/do with their earnings is another story. They say they invested in expansion. They are trying to dress up VB as and new world carrier hoping that someone like a sovereign wealth fund would take notice of their great idea. Hope the dice will roll for them.
Before you write VB off '' insolvent '' just as yet, and consider the basics, VB have a market share, a brand, a network and positive cash flow. What would prevent SQ from buying VB? That's another debate. But if they did, they can make VB a direct competitor to QF by making VB a proper carrier and VB can offer the same service at a lower cost base, and since they have Tiger then they can battle the bottom out with Jetstar. I can only guess who will win if I can put it that wayWhat would happen to QF then? So in this world none is certain, and by no means is VB another Ansett. Ansett was too expensive for anyone but they had to sell it to ANZ just to stop SQ coming in.(another debate) I would bet my bottom dollar that once SQ dispenses with Virgin Atlantic for which Lufti is so keen on, then VB would pose a great proposition for the Asian market consolidation, and at a bargain price.And it would make sense unless everyone in Australia can swallow their pride and amalgamate the industry into one big company for the sake of Labor's mantra(and everyone else's on here)'' Aussie jobs for Aussies'' , ''buy Australian'' etc, as at the moment protectionism is on the rise once again despite the''Globalisation'' benefits perpetuated by the only ones that stood to benefit form its introduction in the fist place=Venture capitalists not you or me. Just another view.
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I'm not suggesting VB are insolvent.
If you believe that VB is, or will become, insolvent then you must not invest in VB or invest only that amount which you are prepared to gamble away to nothing on a punt that the share price might rise for no apparent reason.
If you believe that VB is and will remain a solvent company then the next question to ask is to what extent does VB have the potential to add value to the company to such an extent as to be reflected in a substantial increase in the share price over time.
...and then ask yourself, and this is a monumentally difficult question to answer, over what period of time to you predict that the share price will rise to reflect your predicted increase in the value of the company.
What follows is a test of research, logic, faith in one's logic and emotional intelligence (the fear factor).
abc1 could be very close to the mark. Temasek Holdings were actively buying shares in VB late last year.