Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
"Boeing Strike forces V Australia delay"
In the continuing absence of a revised aircraft delivery schedule, Virgin Blue said it considered the only responsible course of action was to nominate a revised V Australia launch date of 28 February, 2009 to protect the interests of its Guests. V Australia’s Brisbane-Los Angeles direct services, due to launch on 1 March, 2009, are not affected.
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For discussions on the VA Delayed Operation,see relevant thread
http://www.pprune.org/d-g-reporting-...ml#post4434027
http://www.pprune.org/d-g-reporting-...ml#post4434027
IATA are of the opinion 20 airlines will fail over
the next 12 months. Rumour is that 3 airlines
in the U.S will fall over. I suspect United may
be one of them.
IATA are also talking about 1,000 aircraft being
grounded over the next 12 months.
BTW. Air Pacific are wet leasing a B747-400 from
United commencing soon.
the next 12 months. Rumour is that 3 airlines
in the U.S will fall over. I suspect United may
be one of them.
IATA are also talking about 1,000 aircraft being
grounded over the next 12 months.
BTW. Air Pacific are wet leasing a B747-400 from
United commencing soon.
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In response to the previous poster.
Any Bets on Next Airline to go Bust
DJ don't even rate a mention
Any Bets on Next Airline to go Bust
DJ don't even rate a mention
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Despite the doomsday posts, DJ are actually in a much better position than a lot of other airlines out there.
Any carrier that needs to refinance debt or get a loan will struggle with the credit crunch. DJ still have a good cash flow and cash balance. They stated in the annual report they have no need for any further borrowings.
They are also operating in a less competitve market than Europe, USA etc.
Any carrier that needs to refinance debt or get a loan will struggle with the credit crunch. DJ still have a good cash flow and cash balance. They stated in the annual report they have no need for any further borrowings.
They are also operating in a less competitve market than Europe, USA etc.
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ANstar,
You forgot something..... they're actually liked favourably amoung us Aussies....
I have yet to meet a stuck up b*tch from DJ...
Seems they flock to me with QF though....
(I cant really see how Qantas and Aeroflot are in the same catagory on that site wirgin, I thought Qantas would be in a much better position than Aeroflot)
You forgot something..... they're actually liked favourably amoung us Aussies....
I have yet to meet a stuck up b*tch from DJ...
Seems they flock to me with QF though....
(I cant really see how Qantas and Aeroflot are in the same catagory on that site wirgin, I thought Qantas would be in a much better position than Aeroflot)
Last edited by sthaussiepilot; 2nd Oct 2008 at 23:26. Reason: added a question
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They stated in the annual report they have no need for any further borrowings.
Things have changed somewhat and if VA proceeds, watch the cash fly out the window.
Once the cash has gone, then further borrowings would be essential.
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The VA decision has prompted a few brokers to reconsider - the market is still waiting for some leadership from Godfrey & the Board but at least the sentiment is moving n the right direction.
Sidebar:
- anyone know the status of the 73 rego BN
Saw it take a mighty hit from the aerobridge at Gate 12 MEL last night - looked like a big nudge on the angle just fwd of the L1 door (near the ever popular high speed tape site on the right breast of the Virgin Lady motif)
The poor eng standing near the nose wheel jumped in shock, looked like the chocks moved and the skipper stuck his head out the window and had what looked like an animated chat with the young ground staffer driving the bridge - looked like a serious nudge.
Sidebar:
- anyone know the status of the 73 rego BN
Saw it take a mighty hit from the aerobridge at Gate 12 MEL last night - looked like a big nudge on the angle just fwd of the L1 door (near the ever popular high speed tape site on the right breast of the Virgin Lady motif)
The poor eng standing near the nose wheel jumped in shock, looked like the chocks moved and the skipper stuck his head out the window and had what looked like an animated chat with the young ground staffer driving the bridge - looked like a serious nudge.
I feel sorry for the ground staff that have to operate these "modern" aerobridges that sit on the two manoeuvring tyres.
I've stood behind the staff on numerous occasions watching them operate the joy stick as they tentatively try and position the lumbering bridge to the front door of the aircraft. Seems to me there is only two setting for the electric motors that drive the tyres, ON and OFF. There seems to be no low gear option where the operator might be able to select a slower setting for the final approach to the front door.
I'm amazed collisions like this don't happen more often.
I've stood behind the staff on numerous occasions watching them operate the joy stick as they tentatively try and position the lumbering bridge to the front door of the aircraft. Seems to me there is only two setting for the electric motors that drive the tyres, ON and OFF. There seems to be no low gear option where the operator might be able to select a slower setting for the final approach to the front door.
I'm amazed collisions like this don't happen more often.
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Well Blip is does!!!! Gates 2 on E pier, Gates 11,12,13 on F pier have caused damage to planes in Melbourne. Sydney have dramas with most gates on DJ side, the worst Gates 31,32 which has slipped and dented planes!! Its hard to work for those ground staff who use upto 30 year old equipment, that is not maintained as best it could be by airport authority and that fact that some still don't grasp that idea of how to operate the damn things.... i think it needs to be windows based for some!!!
The major shareholder in Air Asia (holds 30.9%) is considering privatising the company at approx USD0.39 a share due to the bleak outlook. I wonder if Virgin Blue will go down this path ?.
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VBA- 16 Oct 08
On an ominous day for the market as a whole- VBA fell through 0.30 during the morning and bounced along under that for the day to close at 0.285 or up a cent on their low for the day.
Closed at 0.285 cents
On a volume of 11,732,846
With a High of 0.310c and a Low of 0.275c
Or down 3 cents for the day.
Closed at 0.285 cents
On a volume of 11,732,846
With a High of 0.310c and a Low of 0.275c
Or down 3 cents for the day.
I would think that looking at any companies share price at the moment, and trying to gain some insight, would be an execise in futility (unless you had margin loans). Price would be irelevant at the moment for VB in my opinion.
Prices are not set at the moment by a companies worth but by 'the fear factor'. Has it got a better chance of not making it than the next one.
There are some 'long term' goodbuys coming.(never airlines or telcos at any price, in my mind) Does not mean it is at the bottom but there are companies that are being hammered that will continue to do well. Bet it is not the thinking investors who are jumping ship, in many cases.
Prices are not set at the moment by a companies worth but by 'the fear factor'. Has it got a better chance of not making it than the next one.
There are some 'long term' goodbuys coming.(never airlines or telcos at any price, in my mind)
Does not mean it is at the bottom but there are companies that are being hammered that will continue to do well. Bet it is not the thinking investors who are jumping ship, in many cases.
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Patience my friends... patience.
The "break-even" point for VB's expansion programme is 18 to 24 months. The share price, now, is a creature of the economic Apocalypse... not Virgin Blue. The share price is beyond Absolute Bargain levels and has achieved Once-In-A-Lifetime-Opportunity-For-A-Rediculously-Easy-Money-To-Be-Made-On-This-One-If-You-Get -Off-Your-Posterior-And-Open-A-Comsec-Account-And-Buy-Them... status.
Mind you... the price of several Australian companies outside of aviation have achieved this status as well... BHP and CSL are two that come to mind.
Yes, there will be a downturn in the economy that will hit all of the companies in some way... but the share prices are now well below that level and there will come a time... whenever that will be... that the current trading behaviour will pass.
People have rather short memories for cataclysmic events that ensure that, as a species, we keep making the same mistakes throughout history... war... stockmarket crashes... financial disasters... other economic oblivions. We have them, they pass with time, we get drunk on the rise to success... blind ourselves to the possibility of failure... and then make the same mistakes again.
The future of Virgin Blue is looking good for the following reasons...
The day before yesterday, CNN broadcast a short piece by one of their business presenters that speculated on the future of the travel industry. Whilst he believed that there would be an increase in the number of airlines failing as businesses, he also made the comment... business people are still traveling... they're just traveling economy instead of business class and staying in three star hotels instead of five star hotels.
The "break-even" point for VB's expansion programme is 18 to 24 months. The share price, now, is a creature of the economic Apocalypse... not Virgin Blue. The share price is beyond Absolute Bargain levels and has achieved Once-In-A-Lifetime-Opportunity-For-A-Rediculously-Easy-Money-To-Be-Made-On-This-One-If-You-Get -Off-Your-Posterior-And-Open-A-Comsec-Account-And-Buy-Them... status.
Mind you... the price of several Australian companies outside of aviation have achieved this status as well... BHP and CSL are two that come to mind.
Yes, there will be a downturn in the economy that will hit all of the companies in some way... but the share prices are now well below that level and there will come a time... whenever that will be... that the current trading behaviour will pass.
People have rather short memories for cataclysmic events that ensure that, as a species, we keep making the same mistakes throughout history... war... stockmarket crashes... financial disasters... other economic oblivions. We have them, they pass with time, we get drunk on the rise to success... blind ourselves to the possibility of failure... and then make the same mistakes again.
The future of Virgin Blue is looking good for the following reasons...
- Virgin Blue has cash.
- Virgin Blue has cash flow.
- Virgin Blue has assets of considerable value.
- Virgin Blue's main competitor is suffering.
- Virgin Blue has an expansion programme that can gain market share.
- Virgin Blue has secured debt instruments to cover their expansion programme.
The day before yesterday, CNN broadcast a short piece by one of their business presenters that speculated on the future of the travel industry. Whilst he believed that there would be an increase in the number of airlines failing as businesses, he also made the comment... business people are still traveling... they're just traveling economy instead of business class and staying in three star hotels instead of five star hotels.
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1. Virgin Blue has cash.
2. Virgin Blue has cash flow.
3. Virgin Blue has assets of considerable value.
4. Virgin Blue's main competitor is suffering.
5. Virgin Blue has an expansion programme that can gain market share.
6. Virgin Blue has secured debt instruments to cover their expansion programme.
Last edited by mrs nomer; 16th Oct 2008 at 22:22.
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Quokka, I agree with what you have written, its nice to see some positive spin on this forum for once not just a cynical outlook 
To the VB staff hold steady do your best to help the company where you can, lets not just think of ourselves its everyones living at stake.
I dont think management is as silly as some people make out on this forum.
To the VB staff hold steady do your best to help the company where you can, lets not just think of ourselves its everyones living at stake.
I dont think management is as silly as some people make out on this forum.
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Mrs Nomer, I agree with you 100%.
The way airlines are doing business now, particularly with regard to lease/financing has totally changed the market in the last few months alone.
Having the $AUD below $US 0.70 will only add to their pain for future leases.
Delays with VA, refunding of tickets, rising costs, the US economy in recession and the Americans in their usual mode of panic may see VA a short lived entity that may very well suck VB dry as mentioned.
People will not travel to the US as easily as they did when the dollar was close to parity.
Cash flow is becoming a real and large problem for VB and they will need every cent to finance VA, let alone cover their losses for a few years.
Share price down to 27.5 cents today does not help as the market has risen about 4 % but VB's shares are down about 8% today in a rising market.
Good luck!!
The way airlines are doing business now, particularly with regard to lease/financing has totally changed the market in the last few months alone.
Having the $AUD below $US 0.70 will only add to their pain for future leases.
Delays with VA, refunding of tickets, rising costs, the US economy in recession and the Americans in their usual mode of panic may see VA a short lived entity that may very well suck VB dry as mentioned.
People will not travel to the US as easily as they did when the dollar was close to parity.
Cash flow is becoming a real and large problem for VB and they will need every cent to finance VA, let alone cover their losses for a few years.
Share price down to 27.5 cents today does not help as the market has risen about 4 % but VB's shares are down about 8% today in a rising market.
Good luck!!