Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Golden Road to Samarkand
Posts: 443
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
VB vs. QF
McBank on VB...
"We believe VBA continues to look cheap relative to the net tangible assets per share adjusted for the low end market value of the Virgin's fleet. Once the churn from existing TOL shareholders dies down, we believe the share price will return to a range between $0.63-0.80."
ArticleViewer
McBank on QF...
"We retain our Neutral recommendation; however, the most recent traffic data highlights potential downside risk to our financial year 2009 revenue forecasts, which assumes an 8.8% increase in passenger yields compared to ~3% in July."
ArticleViewer
"We believe VBA continues to look cheap relative to the net tangible assets per share adjusted for the low end market value of the Virgin's fleet. Once the churn from existing TOL shareholders dies down, we believe the share price will return to a range between $0.63-0.80."
ArticleViewer
McBank on QF...
"We retain our Neutral recommendation; however, the most recent traffic data highlights potential downside risk to our financial year 2009 revenue forecasts, which assumes an 8.8% increase in passenger yields compared to ~3% in July."
ArticleViewer
I think both, Im sparticus and Mc bank on VB, are close to the mark, and partly sum up at present why their share price is where it is. The other reason is the general downturn with the market. One would feel the outlook is up, given the USA do not FALL over 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 209
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
VB will be broke in 18 months. No worries at all. Cannot treat your staff the way they do and run a business the way it is managed and hope to succeed. Impossible, luck has run out here, their only hope would be for QF to go broke (ala AN), yet somehow I don't see that happening in the near future! From what I see everyday, they are burning cash. 18 empty red seats per flight. Four sectors a day means 72 empty seats per flight. Which means one in every ten flights is running with no passengers, and that does not include empty "economy" seats. This does not include new head office costs, Vaus delays, backlog in EMB training, cost of Oil and 8th birthday parties. Unless some major strategic marketing and management changes are made, it look like a new rating or job hunt coming our way. Hope I am wrong!
Looks like David has put the match to Camp Davidian!
Looks like David has put the match to Camp Davidian!
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: 38,000 ft
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
18 empty red seats per flight
As it is the loads are 80.6% YTD August 08 which is only down 2.6% on previous year.
Passenger numbers are up by 17.8%.
(Stats from ASX.com.au)
Once again a rather inflammatory post with no substance from someone who for some reason is peeved at VB.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 209
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Load factors are only part of the equation, its about yeild and at the end of the day, operating profits, I guess that why VB wants more of the business market. Like I said, I hope I am wrong and that all the staff at Vb have a long and prosperous employment career. Ansett had good load factors until they shut the doors. Time will tell.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 209
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AN work practices hay, I could show you where VB wastes thousands of dollars a day, obviously WB, you dont work there. If you do, you should be dancing in a cage at the 8th Birthday Party in pink lauderhousen with knee high socks and pink crock shoes, wig on and screaming at the ceiling!
BROKE IN 18 MONTHS!
BROKE IN 18 MONTHS!
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 125
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
18 red empty seats? So you saying they leave these seats empty when there is 18 people wanting a economy seat?
Remember these seats are convertable seats which go from 2 seat a row to 3 seats a row. Just beacuse DJ don't sell the seats at Premium economy (W class) doesn't mean that they are not sold as economy (Y class) seats. If W sells it sells, if it doesn't, there is not stopping Y seats to be sold for a full Y class cabin.
As for the party, there are inecentives for the company to do it.
1. Morale - 5,000 people not bad for a party ( partners had to pay )
2. Tax and FBT laws allow it.
Frozen wages are for senior management.
Remember these seats are convertable seats which go from 2 seat a row to 3 seats a row. Just beacuse DJ don't sell the seats at Premium economy (W class) doesn't mean that they are not sold as economy (Y class) seats. If W sells it sells, if it doesn't, there is not stopping Y seats to be sold for a full Y class cabin.
As for the party, there are inecentives for the company to do it.
1. Morale - 5,000 people not bad for a party ( partners had to pay )
2. Tax and FBT laws allow it.
Frozen wages are for senior management.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 209
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ok Kitty,
Red or blue seats, does it matter, your logic still fails to explain the fact that the seats are still empty! And I bet many of those 5000 people at the party won't be at the 9th or 10th birthday, wait till they have seen through the V BullS$%T and been shafted a few times, most people only go to one party! Oh thats right, only the flight op's people get shafted at V, because "What can I say about pilots,................letsjust say they are in world of their own". (VB HR MANAGEMENT QUOTE).
BROKE IN 18 MONTHS thats what the broking houses are saying too! Time will tell, my CV and log book are kept upto date, is yours?
Red or blue seats, does it matter, your logic still fails to explain the fact that the seats are still empty! And I bet many of those 5000 people at the party won't be at the 9th or 10th birthday, wait till they have seen through the V BullS$%T and been shafted a few times, most people only go to one party! Oh thats right, only the flight op's people get shafted at V, because "What can I say about pilots,................letsjust say they are in world of their own". (VB HR MANAGEMENT QUOTE).
BROKE IN 18 MONTHS thats what the broking houses are saying too! Time will tell, my CV and log book are kept upto date, is yours?
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Sydney, NSW Australia
Posts: 163
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
DJ's shares continued to head south and closed at 38 cents today!
Popular history recorded that 'Nero fiddled while Rome burned'!
I wonder what will be said of the intransigence that seems to have paralyzed the DJ Board and Management (who of course are one and the same)!
Popular history recorded that 'Nero fiddled while Rome burned'!
I wonder what will be said of the intransigence that seems to have paralyzed the DJ Board and Management (who of course are one and the same)!
Broke in eighteen months...........Bollocks
Not quite true D.D, there are quite a few broking houses(at least two spring to mind on viewing their advisory letters) that indicate that VB has a very strong earning potential and as such offer very good value within the next 18-24 months.
Nice bit of stirring though!
Nice bit of stirring though!
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 370
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Things seem to be getting worse on the DJ front. Mabye canning all this corportate crap, and cut costs (not wages!) and head back to the LCC side of things.
Mabye some employees at Virgin should mabye consider moving on soon, before its too late
Mabye some employees at Virgin should mabye consider moving on soon, before its too late
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 125
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
DD, blue or red, the seats are pretty full on the major parts of the flying day.... its a bit to hard to sell off an aircraft at $30 fares fill it up and then let the plane lose money 'cos you carry a bunch of thrifties for pax movement numbers only!
That job goes to rev ops and they decide on what goes for what $$ amount. That descision I bet then goes to the commercial head of that department who oversees this position.
Does QF, TT, JQ have completely full aircraft everyday on every flight? Noticed a JQ flight out MKY a few weeks back loaded only 30 people. BNEMEL QF flight had 70 pax.... Mmmmmm they will be going under soon then aswell. The week before in MKY I saw a full loaded TT flight....mmmm they will be around for along time......
Sounds like shafting is a past time of yours! You seem to fly with DJ alot to make such direct comments! Thanks for keeping me in a job!! Appreciate it!
That job goes to rev ops and they decide on what goes for what $$ amount. That descision I bet then goes to the commercial head of that department who oversees this position.
Does QF, TT, JQ have completely full aircraft everyday on every flight? Noticed a JQ flight out MKY a few weeks back loaded only 30 people. BNEMEL QF flight had 70 pax.... Mmmmmm they will be going under soon then aswell. The week before in MKY I saw a full loaded TT flight....mmmm they will be around for along time......
Sounds like shafting is a past time of yours! You seem to fly with DJ alot to make such direct comments! Thanks for keeping me in a job!! Appreciate it!
Last edited by KittyBlue; 29th Sep 2008 at 10:34.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 370
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
KittyBlue is right
Last month I came back on a JQ flight from SYD-AVV with 24 people!!. And the day before they were selling fares for $119 on this sector? Last week I was also on a TT Flight from CBR-MEL, there was 174 pax, and they were selling seats for only $69.95 that same morning!
Crazy World
Last month I came back on a JQ flight from SYD-AVV with 24 people!!. And the day before they were selling fares for $119 on this sector? Last week I was also on a TT Flight from CBR-MEL, there was 174 pax, and they were selling seats for only $69.95 that same morning!
Crazy World
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sydney
Posts: 209
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"Cesar, Rome is falling."
"Well lets get the wine out and have a party"
BROKE IN 18 MONTHS
Dont forget, TT and JQ have a very deep pocket to reach into. Does VB! At least the staff a Camp Davidian (HQ) can eat healthy food at the cafe which becomes a bar on the weekend to celebrate the wonderful and healthy direction the company is heading into, I remember someone calling it the "perfect storm".
"Well lets get the wine out and have a party"
BROKE IN 18 MONTHS
Dont forget, TT and JQ have a very deep pocket to reach into. Does VB! At least the staff a Camp Davidian (HQ) can eat healthy food at the cafe which becomes a bar on the weekend to celebrate the wonderful and healthy direction the company is heading into, I remember someone calling it the "perfect storm".