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Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?

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Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?

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Old 14th Sep 2008, 01:47
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Goodbye VB.........
I really hope this isnt goodbye for them, I hope that they pull through...
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 09:41
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Tiger may make a move at around 40 cents , stay tuned............
Most of the 737s will return to lessors and Tiger will introduce more A320s and wait for it , old 777s from SQ for the major domestic ops.
Is it pure speculation, or you know something we don't?
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 10:12
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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pure speculation

"sciolist"... Noun, archaic. "a person who pretends to be knowledgeable and well informed".
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 11:22
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Who do you work for rabbitwear?
PS - Never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
For others a 5 second search of previous posts can often provide a good reasons for peoples posts. Some people on this site even have a paid assistant to do up a dossier for them!!
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 11:34
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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I would say that its very unlikely, if tiger bought out VB they would be making the same mistake as VB themselves, over complicating the simplicity model. Other than the sydney slots they'd gain VB has nothing really that tiger would need, they would have to negotiate the break up, re-negotiate with staff and so on. Better they let it collapse (if it does) and pick up what pieces it needs after. At least tiger is sticking to the single fleet low cost philosophy etc... I'd say tiger would be more interested in something like rex as a low cost regional feeder, but thats also pretty unlikely.
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 11:50
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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Their Book Value is 88 cents, so actually at around 52 cents not a bad speculative buy. May be why CBA has just got a little over 5% recently, or maybe not so speculative
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 12:06
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Do some of you idiots really want to see VB fail?
What's in that for anyone?
I don't fly for them, but I can't see why there is this dumping on them, which seems to translate into some sort of bizarre wish for it's failure. Surely we've seen enough of airline collapses in this part of the world.
For the industry's sake, VB need to stick around, if only to keep QF honest.
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 13:39
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Its all trash talk one airline to another. This thread should probably be locked since there is hardly anything worthwhile or new on it.

The Aussie market is on the nose to the rest of the world. VB isn't the only stock trading below what it is worth. The commodities boom is all but over, BHP and RIO will takeover the mining companies that have something worth selling. The recession is on in NSW and the rest of Australia will surely follow suit. Labor wont last more than one term. Need I say more.

Its really only a two horse race in these forums QF or VB and the majority of posters work for the Rat so you are never going to get anything but biased comments from them.
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 23:56
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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No!
the thread should not be locked - and if you don't like the wider perception then perhaps you should write to your CEO & Board who have done nothing to convince the market that there is a plan for the business other than continue on with all the 'new world carrier b.s.' that created the downward spiral in the first place.

VB desperately needs to get back to core business - focus on yeild and forget trying to prop up the failed business models for Premium Economy that were flawed from the begining. It needs to forget trying to be cute with the financial structure of the IFE deal and forget trying to rely on off balance sheet liabilities to prop up claims of '>A$700m cash reserves'

VB's dalliance into the PAc route with V is extremely high risk - apart from conciously putting the biz into the red for Y1 & Y2, the inbound market from the US is softening fast and the government's 'open skies' policy for the Pac route means more operators and a much lower NSR. (This is also an issue with Q)

VB is a great LCC - and as an LCC it did very well and should be a profitable business........ if it gets focus. Until however there is evidence of such, VB can expect to be tossed around in a stormy and very reactive market.

By the way - not all Q people or those from other airlines are anti VB - I happen to use VB's services a lot (except over water by choice) and it is usually good value - in fact Q & VB both share the same problem at the moment (perception) and for the record, the red rat is not doing a good job of convincing the market either!

It's great you are passionate about your employer - hang to that but maybe don't confuse their grasping of foreskin with foresight.

AT

Last edited by airtags; 15th Sep 2008 at 00:02. Reason: typos
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Old 15th Sep 2008, 10:16
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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Agree with Airtags. Never mind the share price for a moment, what are management doing to turn the business around?

The latest moves by DJ/PB are somewhat puzzling. It was only a couple of months ago they pulled out of MEL-DRW and SYD-PPP, now they're starting BNE-POM, SYD-CHC and possibly OZ-DPS.

First, I'd love to know how they justify setting up base in PNG, offering 720 seats a week each way to/from BNE. Is there a sudden surge of demand that no one noticed until now? And are Australians all flogging to Bali instead of local resorts?

It's of utmost importance that companies conserve cash in these rough times. Instead at DJ money is still being spent left right and centre. I don't work for QF, but I'm sure the clowns at Red Rat are laughing their heads off right now.

DJ is a great airline and I don't want to see it gone like AN. But talking it up doesn't make things better. It's just sad BG still acts that way and sadder that some people believe every word he says.
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Old 15th Sep 2008, 10:34
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Never heard anything about setting up a base in PNG, the base would be in Brisbane?
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Old 15th Sep 2008, 11:44
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I'd imagine the australian base would be in BNE, however they will be competing against SkyAirWorld on this one... as they fly to Port Moresby frequently... and are planning to expand there.......

Cant see this working well for either Airline....
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Old 15th Sep 2008, 22:07
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Betsy,

The MELDRW, SYDPPP ran infrequently from 1- 3 days a week. It was easier and cheaper to connect poeple through BNE for the daily flights to PPP and DRW.

POM is a destination, orginating from BNE. So this feeds off the wet lease agreement crew, no no base in POM.

As for conserving cash, DJ believe they need to spend money to make money, rather than sitting there with the reserves working without expansion. Each to their own i guess.

Also do you really think (a general comment to all) with a board of directors and a senior management team, that one person makes the descision without checking in with the research and the commercial interest? If this was the case I sure bet I would be on the breadline about 5 years ago.
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Old 15th Sep 2008, 23:42
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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SA pilot

Quote
I'd imagine the australian base would be in BNE, however they will be competing against SkyAirWorld on this one... as they fly to Port Moresby frequently... and are planning to expand there.......
Cant see this working well for either Airline.... Unquote

SkyAirWorld do NOT operate BNE-POM. They do not have traffic rights.
In fact they wet-lease an E190 to Air Niugini for two only per week BNE-POM-BNE. Can't see how they are going to expand an operation they don't have , what's your source?.
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Old 15th Sep 2008, 23:45
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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Skyairworld operate the EMB on a wet lease contract to Air Niugini, same as the CNS - POM sector in EMB-145's
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 00:20
  #236 (permalink)  
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The base is Bne. Why would anyone even think to base a crew in PNG? Come on guys lets be realistic. And as a matter worthy of note, Aussies on holiday go to Bali in huge numbers, especially from Perth, but all other capitals as well. The Bali idea is not a bad one. Garuda are always full (certain ports) and there would certainly be those willing to travel on VB instead. And yes SAW do run a wet lease for APNG it works but it is limited. I think VB could do the same on a limited basis and keep some dough in the pocket.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 03:06
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Cop

Just to clarify......the SAW wet-lease arrangement is with Pixie not APNG.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 05:59
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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"Hanoi"

I know a pilot.... who is employed by SkyAirWorld and flys to Port Moresby often

In the 190 I belive

I belive somewhere around here I have a picture from the flight deck flying there, with the approach charts on the yolk, so if they are not supposed to be flying there, I dont know how he's been taking the 190 over there then...
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 06:16
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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sthaussiepilot,

Hanoi is stating as in a wetlease agreement SkyAirworld operates as Air Niugini. The flying rights belong to Air Niugini, not SkyAirWorld. They work on their behalf.
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Old 16th Sep 2008, 06:23
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Ahhhhhhhhhh Okay,

Still SkyAirWorld Pilots, CC, and Aircraft... just under different name....

Check your PM please, just need a little bit of clarification, but would de-rail this thread...
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