Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
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SkyAirWorld are not that bad, they have made a few bad decisions in regards to money... and well work....
And Didnt really miss it... it moved... you should know that
You cant really expect an airline not to have a small incident at some point... hopefully not as early into their RPT as they did, but they broke an egg, they should still have 11 more left...
And Didnt really miss it... it moved... you should know that
You cant really expect an airline not to have a small incident at some point... hopefully not as early into their RPT as they did, but they broke an egg, they should still have 11 more left...
PB makes a dis proportionate amount of money for the VB group hence when the chips are down in AU opportunities are being thrown PB's way. So it is not throwing money away. Eg Poly Blue just announced 9.8mil profit - thats 1 a/c making that money btw.
However the concern is too much growth too quick is very dangerous.
Re QF. QF and Air NZ are not laughing at VB/PB they are both very nervous.
However the concern is too much growth too quick is very dangerous.
Re QF. QF and Air NZ are not laughing at VB/PB they are both very nervous.
Rabbitwear, we're about to see how accurate your predictions are....
CBA just pulled the pin on a large number of shares to fall out of being a substantial holder price has traded at .405c.
CBA just pulled the pin on a large number of shares to fall out of being a substantial holder price has traded at .405c.
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Even if someone wanted to buy VB I doubt they would be able to borrow the money unless they had it already saved up ie EK. This whole credit mess is going to stuff things up big time for the next couple of years at least.
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DJCCGuy wrote:
Things need to change!
Things need to change!
1. Posepone V-Australia launch
2. Stop delivery of more E-jets
3. Reduce domestic capacity
4. Further cost reduction measures
And most importantly
5. Senior management
Makes you wonder if there has been some 'shorting' going on really and now that has had the hand brake applied, those same 'people' bailing out. 1 and 2 cent changes every day in the share price make a big percentage difference and there have been some big parcels of shares being traded.
Not sure that shorting has that much affect on VB rather than investor confidence in the product. The shares seem to drop when oil rises more than any other factor as LCCs are vulnerable to this. QF has proven their oil hedging successfull in the profit release and REXs' floating fuel surcharge nulified the effect of oil, these stocks have fallen but generally stayed where they dropped to a while back. VB being hit with poor hedging and dropping load factors and resulting large cut in profits/increasing debt (whatever the cause) does not inspire prospective investors. This poor confidence continues until something changes such as management showing some restraint in a potential recession or the economy/financial sector turns the corner and shows dramatic stable improvement.
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1. Posepone V-Australia launch
2. Stop delivery of more E-jets
3. Reduce domestic capacity
4. Further cost reduction measures
And most importantly
5. Senior management
2. Stop delivery of more E-jets
3. Reduce domestic capacity
4. Further cost reduction measures
And most importantly
5. Senior management
2. They are taking the EJets they are contractually obliged to take and have postponed future orders.
3. Domestic capacity has been reduced by deploying EJets on certain routes and moving frames to PB to expand international routes. Poly Blue made 9.8 million from one route last year so this is worth doing.
4. They announced cost cutting measures, the biggest one being a 2 year pay freeze for head office staff.
5. Why change senior management. The airline made $150 million last financial year (then reduced this by $60 million for V Australia) and over $200 million the year before.
VB is still making money the question is have they over borrowed? Is the debt to equity ratio something that shareholders should be/are concerned about? Are these loans over a long enough period that refinancing won't be an issue? Are airlines something that investors are happy to be lending there money to?
Their book value is still 88 cents, that counts for a lot at this stage, however they are close to the wind alright.
Last edited by farrari; 24th Sep 2008 at 06:43. Reason: nown
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Is this a fair cop?
I noticed this article on Business Spectator today.
Business Spectator - Qantas devours its own
Is this as fair cop?
One thing I wondering about is what Qantas profitability will look like compared to Virgin Blue when the next year results don't include $291 million in liquidated damages for the 787 delays and whatever millions Dixon ripped out of costs by not keeping the fleet adequately maintained?
****, this year they are going to have to do something about maintenance and reliability, which won't come cheap, or the travellers are just going to give up on them.
Business Spectator - Qantas devours its own
Is this as fair cop?
One thing I wondering about is what Qantas profitability will look like compared to Virgin Blue when the next year results don't include $291 million in liquidated damages for the 787 delays and whatever millions Dixon ripped out of costs by not keeping the fleet adequately maintained?
****, this year they are going to have to do something about maintenance and reliability, which won't come cheap, or the travellers are just going to give up on them.
Interesting to note that the Commonwealth Bank and its entities advised the ASX on 23 Sep 08 that they were no longer a substantial shareholder in Virgin Blue. Looks like the majority of the shares were only held for approx. 3 weeks.
Looking at the market depth the share price will hit an all time low this week, i.e less than 40c. What it does next week is any ones guess.
Virgin Blue are forecasting a fall of 89% in earnings for 2009 and do not expect to pay a dividend in 2009, 2010 or 2011.
Aspect Financial Pty Ltd are reporting:
Current Assets $924,200,000
Current Liabilities $1,055,700,000
Looking at the market depth the share price will hit an all time low this week, i.e less than 40c. What it does next week is any ones guess.
Virgin Blue are forecasting a fall of 89% in earnings for 2009 and do not expect to pay a dividend in 2009, 2010 or 2011.
Aspect Financial Pty Ltd are reporting:
Current Assets $924,200,000
Current Liabilities $1,055,700,000
Last edited by B772; 24th Sep 2008 at 11:34.
B772
Don't get to worried about those figures, the same for Qantas are
Current Assets $5,616,200,000
Current liabilities $7,603,900,000
Don't get to worried about those figures, the same for Qantas are
Current Assets $5,616,200,000
Current liabilities $7,603,900,000
Last edited by farrari; 24th Sep 2008 at 12:01. Reason: adjust figures
B772 - that number is only current liabilities, total liabilities are 2,412,000,000 against 925,000,000 net assets/equity (or 3,337,000,000 total assets) asset value per share .84c, cash or equivilents available $600,000,000 refer the 2007/08 full year results released by virgin.
QF is just as bad though once non-current liabilities are taken into account. 13,102,000,000 total liability against 6,081,000,000 net assets (or 19,183,000,000 total assets) asset value per share $2.95, cash or equivilents $2,900,000,000.
compare this to rex, 51,730,000 total liabilities (18,000,000 of which is just unused tickets etc... and almost all of which is current liabilities only 5,000,000 in non-current) with 112,653,000 net assets (164,000,000 total assets)
High levels of debt are only a problem if the buisness starts experiencing cash flow problems over an extended period and debt repayment/service provision starts to look doubtful. This is where available cash reserves become more important, as with diversity and having a solid backer capable of cash injection.
QF is just as bad though once non-current liabilities are taken into account. 13,102,000,000 total liability against 6,081,000,000 net assets (or 19,183,000,000 total assets) asset value per share $2.95, cash or equivilents $2,900,000,000.
compare this to rex, 51,730,000 total liabilities (18,000,000 of which is just unused tickets etc... and almost all of which is current liabilities only 5,000,000 in non-current) with 112,653,000 net assets (164,000,000 total assets)
High levels of debt are only a problem if the buisness starts experiencing cash flow problems over an extended period and debt repayment/service provision starts to look doubtful. This is where available cash reserves become more important, as with diversity and having a solid backer capable of cash injection.
Last edited by 43Inches; 24th Sep 2008 at 23:51.
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coaldemon,
I have no idea how CBA manage there investment so I wont completely discount your theory........however here is mine:
CBA never baught nor intended to own a single VBA share but are a substantial holder of TOL (around 6.9%), CBA inherits VBA stock as a TOL special dividend and announce that they are now a substantial holder, CBA sells of there holdings and announce they are no longer a substantial holder.
I have no idea how CBA manage there investment so I wont completely discount your theory........however here is mine:
CBA never baught nor intended to own a single VBA share but are a substantial holder of TOL (around 6.9%), CBA inherits VBA stock as a TOL special dividend and announce that they are now a substantial holder, CBA sells of there holdings and announce they are no longer a substantial holder.