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Old 8th Feb 2005, 11:12
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Despit the size of their fleet, the rat is starting to become challenged with destinations. The drop in commission levels from 9 to 7% has far from endeared them th the Travel industry as well.

I find myself selling bucketloads of CX OS and EK, simply on a price base. MH and MH/KL codeshare has well and truly come to the fore as well recently. QF/BA need to take a tiny peek over their shoulders. Things are not as rosy as they may have thought.

Best all

EWL
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 11:44
  #42 (permalink)  
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Whilst I agree with the general thrust of these comments, can I throw in one piece of contrary information which won't quit.

Rumours persist (and they're VERY strong from multiple sources) about the acquisition of new aircraft and not just to replace old capacity but to expand the network in a significant fashion. Some of the numbers being thrown around for promotions over the next 1-3 years are impressive and they are more than what would be thrown up by the acquisition of the A380! Sure, believe nothing until you see it in writing and the crews on the line (although surely the same logic applies to the rumours of us pulling out of FRA! ) but it would appear that we are shortly to go on a significant expansion of our operation.

Perhaps the 777-200LR with its long legs and good numbers may prove the vehicle to start to tackle some of those longer thinner routes. SYD- Vienna anyone?

I remain an optimist about the aircraft acquisitions as expansion flying and not continual turn over of the older aircraft. If we're pulling out of FRA then it is my hope (although I hold no confidence in this hope) that it is because we are trying to hold SIA out of the Pacific by adding capacity there and that when new aircraft arrive early next year that we will again return to Frankfurt, Paris, Rome, SFO, VVR, etc, etc, etc.

Dreams are free.
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 12:09
  #43 (permalink)  

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Keg onya mate.

Frankfurt, Paris, Rome,
Amsterdam one day we'll get the old Peter Stuyvesant ad going again.

I still think that one day Australia will buy QF back, we wont be the only country to do so and we'll return to the something like the "flag carrier" system of old.

We wont need Singapore anymore and we will be able to go most places non stop.

So you can all fall about laughing now. but just think about the scenarios where it might just be necessary.
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 12:28
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Buckshot...

Agreed. I was speaking with an EK staffer a couple of years back who said that they noticed early on how tough it was for the sub-continental communities in the UK/Europe to get back to their old countries and vice-versa... firm bilateral agreements, horrible scheduling, etc. that they decided they could make zillions by connecting all the major cities in that region to Dubai, then lots of runs up from DXB, especially to the UK.

Well, EK now have SEVEN daily runs up to London alone, TWO dailies to Manchester and single dailies to Birmingham & Glasgow.

This was before the non-stop DXB-SYDs but the 345s were on the way & he told me to just wait & see what happened when that caper kicked off... Sure enough, EK will shortly be adding a second daily to SYD (ok, not non-stop but that probably won't be far off).

Point is, EK have made it work in spades. They took their successful sub-continent strategy and thought, 'Gee, this might work further afield with longer-range aircraft' - and it has.

I recently went up to London via Vienna with Austrian/Lauda, in J. Not a great product, but I was initially kinda surprised to see J/C FULL (so pretty much paying for the operation), whilst Y/C would've been lucky to be 60%. Speaking to a few fellow punters, they said they always used to fly the Rat but they were going to points in Germany and France and did NOT want to travel backwards from London - so Vienna was great, as OS had recently made big strides in getting connections tight at VIE. The point was also made that getting points bookings on QF had become such a nightmare that they were happier in a Star FF programme, eg. if they wanted to take the fam pretty much anywhere in Asia-Pac, there was usually choice on the main runs. So that was clearly premium traffic which the Rat had just given away but not fully understanding what & where its punters wanted.

Keg - maybe you're right - maybe getting 777s & dumping the older 744s would introduce a bit more fleet flexibility, opening up thinner routes. Maybe, using 777LRs going through DXB, BAH, BOM, MLE, KUL etc. to European cities would be a way of relieving the reliance on SIN, and so weaken Singapore's bargaining position to get West Coast USA routes - and open up the Continental ports again (crewed by London-based crew??!!). But, SIN remains a good hub to aggregate from other Australian cities for LHR, so it won't disappear just yet. I've suggested before that QF go to such intermediate ports & connect with BA runs to those ports - no need for extra LHR slots or LR/ER aircraft.

But if all the 744s went, what would happen to JNB? Would it have sufficient loads to fill a 380? SYD-JNB is outside even 207 min ETOPS by great circle.

TD67
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 17:37
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Jeez, I know this is all pure speculation, and I didn't realise QF had pulled out of so many places. Question is, is it a permanent pull out? Does QF still have rights to fly to those places? Are those rights transferable to another Australian carrier? Are they saleable? That might give us an indication.

Jetjockey, with respect "stupidity and complicity" are not necessary. The only thing necessary is to keep the QF brand name intact throughout whatever process they intend submitting you to.

I didn't realise that Dixon was spouting about QF being a "legacy airline" that is code for "you have no future". Being a marketer, he understands the value of the brand name and will do everything he can to preserve it. If he really is spouting about "legacy airline" that is both bad news and pure stupidity.

The use of the silly "legacy" word was first applied in business speak to computer systems as in "legacy system", which meant something you inherited, but couldn't turn off because its replacement hadn't been built yet. In addition it was usually impossible to easily interface the legacy system to the new systems or find any programmers who even knew the computer language. Needless to say many "legacy" systems have outlived the "new improved" systems and are still running just fine today, albeit in a slightly tidied up form - thats why its a silly term.

The sad part is that if Dixon is using this word, then he probably has the Board convinced as well (ever heard of groupthink?), and it will totally color their thinking. Thats why there is no strategy for QF - QF in the Boards eyes, has no future, their strategy is to "harvest" it, keep the good bits, screw the last drop of blood out of the rest of it before throwing it away. J* has strategy because its part of the future.


I'm not sure any signifigant institutions are holding QF shares as a blue chip investment grade product, they may well be holding shares for tactical reasons including warehousing them for someone. A simple brieifing about the necessity of euthanising the "Legacy airline", some platitudes about shareholder value being in the brand name and some blue sky pronouncements and the institutions will roll over and go back to sleep.

As for the Federal Government, it is completely possible that they have already had a briefing about QF's strategy to de-unionise, which is music to their ears anyway. They will deny everything as usual and look the other way, exactly as they did when Patrick's busted open the Melbourne waterfront with men with dogs and black balaclavas.



The commission drop would be explainable by a "harvesting" strategy - which is simply squeeze every last drop of value out of the "legacy airline" before euthanising it. Don't worry about long term relationships with travel agents, there is no "long term".

As for A380's and other acquisitions, I would be surprised if he would inflict a unionised workforce on them. That means that there would be no heavy maintenance done here. Question:- Does the A380 initial provisioning include a full swag of heavy maintenance spares? More than one set of flaps? Undercarriage? Are you setting up to maintain this stuff? I suspect not, but then Sunfish is just idly speculating about all this anyway. Its probably all a mirage, business will continue as normal. One should not see conspiracy where happenings can be explained by simple stupidity.

Last edited by Sunfish; 8th Feb 2005 at 18:03.
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 01:21
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Deja-vu ain't what it used to be?

Anyone have this feeling we've heard it all before?

When?

How about 2001 from our gallant AN brethren. "Management is pulling our pud..they're telling porkies to make their bottom line look better , up their bonuses etc etc"

Well I say what if they're not?

What if there is a good chance that QF International will disappear somewhere north of here in the next five years? It certainly ain't growing is it?

Many groups of pilots over the years have found the bar and PPRuNe much quieter when their jobs and their company disappear.

Are you prepared to gamble your future on the bar-talk being right this time?
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 04:41
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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The reality:

Even if Qantas orders 787’s or 777’s, by the time they arrive, it is very unlikely they will be able to use them to establish new international routes. They will only be able to compete with existing carriers.

It is kind of ironic (some would say amusing) that the carrier that founded its success on Australia’s geographic isolation is now being hurt by it. Of course they will have to pull out of long haul ports when the only aircraft they send on the route is the B744!!! There is simply too much competition using more appropriate aircraft with lower cost bases. The idea QF can go back and re-establish itself in these places profitably in years to come is hilarious. You snooze, you lose.

The Asian carriers to the north are geographically positioned to become posterchild’s for Boeings “point to point” theory of the future. QF should have ordered the 777 and introduced A330 long haul services a very long time ago to at least delay being squeezed out of the European marketplace.

With carriers like Air Asia making even the “backyard” difficult, let’s all now watch “Australian Airlines” get thrown all the marginal Asian routes while Qantas retreats even further whilst still remaining the “most profitable airline in the world”.

All that begins has an end.
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 05:00
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Buckshot

You're not quite right in what you say. QF still fly to quite a few ports that you mention... they just don't use QF aircraft.

As East West Loco points out there are quite a few QF code share flights out there... only Australian travel agents can't afford to sell the QF side of the codeshare due to the low commission.

Just imagine if all the flights from Australia were code share. We'd end up with a brand name only, with no substance behind it... trouble is that it would make money and create a lot of unemployment in Australia. We don't need that.
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 12:07
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Time to Move?

Should I start looking for another job and get a start on the other 30 thousand who will be(out of the Q) in the Q?
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 19:15
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Animalclub,

That's exactly the point - withdrawing from a port is exactly that. It cannot be disguised by offering code shares. Do you think that punters who now fly Air France to Paris on QF codeshare really think they've flown on QF? This gives the brand zero presence in the market.
Twenty-odd ports in ten years must be some kind of record.....
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 19:59
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By buying eight A380, it appears to me that QF is still wedded to the idea that Australia begins and ends in Sydney.

In my untutored opinion, they would have been better off buying a stack of smaller aircraft and doing the city pair thing and reinventing themselves, but no.

QF management seems wedded to the idea that air travel is going to become a commodity ie: QF is a price taker not a price maker, cost is everything. However the dysfunctional part of their strategy is the idea that people will be prepared to travel via Sydney to obtain this commodity. That is just stupid.

People who buy commodities expect it delivered to their door. They do not put up with inconvenience to get it. In other words, I go to the nearest petrol station to fill up.

In addition, I do not want to have to board and pass through immigration and customs with 800 of my colleagues either. Do you really think that the Commonwealth immigration department is going to double the size of midnight to 8.00am shift or whatever to accomodate one A380 arrival?

I guess the benefit for QF is that at least they will keep the Sydney based market. However the rest of us not based in Sydney will choose to fly direct to our intended destination and bypass Sydney and QF.

I guess QF will have justified the A380 in part on the business market, businsss and first class yadda yadda. Well I have news for you sunshine. I gave my staff the option on trips longer than twelve hours take business or take economy and have a two day break before doing business and on the way back. Guess which way most chose to travel?

I might fly QF domestically, but only if VB doesn't have seats. I have a stack of frequent flyer points, but I can't be bothered with the aggravation and hassle of trying to find a seat.

Airport lounges are not an issue, if I want to use the VB one I'll pay for it and the airports I use normally don't have QF lounges anyway.

Last trip to Singapore was by SQ A340 - a direct fast pleasant no nonsense trip with no hassles. Sure the service is impersonal, so what? Would I get any better on QF? The answer is no, in fact it would probably be worse.

Lauda to Vienna much the same. Their bonhomie is a little forced and Austrians are pushy, but would I get any better on QF? I don't think so.

Last two QF flights were disappointments as far as service went. Both Business class because I was really pushed for time and those electric seats really do allow you to get a little sleep, once to Paris via Sydney and the other direct MEL- LAX until a leaking spoiler actuator on pushback turned it into a flight via Sydney and a five hour delay.

Flying QF = Disappointment.

There is a thing in six sigma quality assurance about "delighting your customers". QF used to do that once.

Last edited by Sunfish; 9th Feb 2005 at 20:19.
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 21:44
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Angry Sunfish, let go of your obsession!

Sunfish old chap: you are spoiling some of the good things you write by you unabated obsession about Melburnians having to travel via Sydney. This is simply untrue, as we have pointed out to you in other posts.

As for your MEL/LAX travel, you had chosen a direct flight but owing to an unfortunate mechanical problem, Qantas took you via Sydney with a resultant five hour delay. They could have chosen to leave the flight operate MEL/LAX non-stop after aircraft serviceability or new crew obtained but I am sure the delay and inconvenience would have been much worse than actually experienced. Note too that Qantas' competitors on the Pacific - United and air New Zealand - operate their flights to Los Angeles via Sydney and Auckland respectively. So on this route Qantas doesn't look too bad eh?

With your travel to Paris, I'd be looking for a new travel agent or PA to arrange my travel. QF9 from Melbourne to Singapore is designed to hub at Singapore with Qantas services to Europe, currently to Frankfurt but also to Paris when Paris was served by Qantas. Why would anyone with half a brain opt to travel Melbourne-Sydney-Singapore-Paris when they could reduce their journey time by several hours and eliminate one stop by instead travelling Melbourne-Singapore-Paris.

If you have such an insight into the various Australian aviation markets, why don't you offer your thoughts to Qantas? Better still, offer yourself for election as a director at QFs next AGM. Surely you would add more to the place than Son of Kerry????
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Old 9th Feb 2005, 23:25
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah you are right Don, I shouldn't bother with QF, I don't have to use them now anyway.
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Old 10th Feb 2005, 19:13
  #54 (permalink)  
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It seems like with most things aviation we have lost the premise of the original post.

Frankfurt is being touted as an unsustainable port. Having done the run quite a few times I can't see how a full aircraft can't make money. That is of course unless that aircraft is required to support a huge bureacracy of accountants, marketers administrators and others.. People so far removed from the operation of aircraft that they wouldn't know the difference between a 747 and a double decker bus.

Then roll into the equation a number of regional interests and LCC and you start to see why. The cost of running an airline is not only staff. Depsite what GD maintains they are not simply a cost. Mainline touted as a "legacy carrier"( he likes it so much) but why?

Sure there are efficiencies in all departments, i would suggest that as they relate to flight operations and aircraft operations they have been reduced significantly. The product promised by marketers fails to materialise so often that it is my assertion it is time to spend money repairing the brand, because if the tree is pruned much more, it will in fact die.

So why isn't Frankfurt making money, or Rome. Paris itself had frequency issues, but you got Orly just down road a bit how about developing another port?

The secret lies in the accounts. As I and others have said, the competing units J* AO don't pay full price for transferred services and equipment. In particular with no financial information available on their performance it is easy for GD to assert mainline is a "legacy" In order to develop leverage on the heavily unionised workforce that causes GD so much grief, he continually points to the threat LCC's represent. But how much of a threat is J* if it paid its own way on infrastructure, fuel and people. If a specialist employee is seconded for a year does J* pay for the provision of sick leave, long service, holidays and wages for example.

GD is quick to point out that emirates or Singapore enjoy significant benefits that mean the playing field is less than ideal, from depreciation to government support. How much financial support is in the numbers that we don't see which continues the myth that J* is so lean and QF so fat?

Go look for the information, it isn't there. Financial accounts are by law required by be a true representation of the company. If transfer pricing means that COSTS are loaded onto mainline, then the accounts are not accurate and do not represent a true and proper picture. Mind you it serves GD's agenda very well.

So let's see J* opened up and presented to the investor and staff. Let us ask why do they not pay market price for things they use from mainline....If after due dilligence it is clear they do stand alone as an excellent business model with accurately reported costs of business, then I'm satisfied.

I somehow suspect as this is the key to the crap spouted by management and not likely to see the light of day!

Mind you the staff engagement survey results might make them wonder a bit
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Old 10th Feb 2005, 20:07
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Hi this is my 1st post. I'm an Ex QF employee (18 years - so a little bit of experience and heaps more gained in the business world since leaving in 91). Thought the news on the wire about HP yesterday was interesting. Perhaps QF shareholders (staff are shareholders) and employees need to raise their voices.

HEWLETT-PACKARD overnight ousted its chairman and chief executive, Carly Fiorina, the architect of a controversial merger with Compaq Computer that never produced the promised results.

Fiorina, 50, resigned after a showdown yesterday, ending a tumultuous five-and-a-half-year reign characterised by an employee and shareholder revolt over the company's direction.
Recognized as one of the most powerful women in business, she had been the only female CEO of a component of the Dow Jones industrial average.
Her ouster came after "weeks and more" of meetings in which directors, together with outside legal and corporate governance advisers, took issue with her inconsistent track record of executing on HP's strategy, board members said.

Now - lets look at this and QF:

QANTAS overnight ousted both it's chairperson and chief executive, the Dame and GOD, the architects of a controversial policy that saw the mainline carrier being downsized considerably in favour of subsidiary companies such as Australian Airlines and JetStar. This downsize saw the once proud QANTAS name flying to only a handful of destinations in their own right, whilst senior management through lack of experience listened to GOD and agreed with every spoken word plus the fact that their own greed stood in the way.

Both the Dame and GOD resigned after a showdown yesterday, ending a tumultous 3 year reign together characterised by an employee and shareholder revolt over the company's direction. resigned. Further to this was the fact that passenger loads have dropped to as low as 30% because of complaints about frequent flyer scheme and where or where they can't fly to on both the domestic and international routes.

The Dame was recognised as one of the most powerful women in business however she saw the writing on the wall after weeks and weeks of meeting by board members to which she was not invited.
GOD was recognised as a ver clever marketing man but unfortunately no prior experience at being the head honcho - he too had not been invited to any meeting recently coupled with the fact that he no longer could arrange 747's to fly him to Wagga Wagga as the ground staff, pilots and cabin crew have started to show some aggression of late. In addition, a large team of senior staff led by a powerful number of pilots sought outside legal and corporate governance advisors who were all shocked with the reported findings and took issue with his very inconsistent track record of late.

In further development is has been announced that a new domestic airline will be created called Australian Airlines and based in Melboune. This will replace JetStar and see Australian compete on all routes currently flown by Virgin Blue and providing identical service, if and when Virgin introduce a frequent flyer scheme, Australian will immediately follow. This provides the Australian public with the duolopy that they once had and wish to have again. Qantas is currently in talks with Patricks to ensure that prices are identical for all seats on all routes. This ensures that pax will only have to decide what carrier to fly with. JetStar staff will be offered a job in Melboure except the CEO who will be taking up a position in a pub in Dublin. Qantas will feed into Australian Airlines from their international operations. Australian will cease to fly any international operations and Qantas will resume these services in their own right. Qantas will continue to run the Qantas Link services themselves.

The acting chairman Rene Rivkin has apoligised for the demise of Qantas over the past 3 years and hopes that the share price can improve from it's current 10 cents a share to $20 a share in the near future.

Acting CEO a Jimmy Bow-Tie hopes to paint more aircraft in the Aboriginal paint scheme or covered in lycra and pink as they once again start flying into previousl destinations such as, LHR, ROM, FRA, PAR, ATH, SIN, BKK, DPS, TYO, HKG, LAX, SFO & YVR.Now - lets look at this and QF: Now - lets look at this and QF:
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Old 10th Feb 2005, 21:56
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A good start, but this is the one I'd like to see.

"30 December 2010.

Qantas was today named airline of the year ending Emirates record seven year run and capping a stellar corporate recovery by its management team led by CEO Wirraway.

In 2005 Qantas almost collapsed under the weight of an ACCC investigation of predatory pricing, "anomalies" in its accounts, decliining passenger numbers, and a public perception that it was an obstacle to the development of the Australian tourist industry as well as "not being Australian any more" as one child put it.

The final straw was the Governments announcement of its "open skies" policy that saw Qantas stripped of the capacity advantages that underpinned its international market share.

Massive industrial unrest by its 36,000 staff was followed by a hostile takeover offer. The takeover offer was withdrawn after investigating accountants discovered that the corporation's accounts had been gutted to produce its previous "record" profits and that the airline operations were now barely sustainable.


The Chairman and CEO resigned and the remaining Directors announced their intention not to renominate, leaving the airline rudderless. At this point a loose coalition of airline staff (the pprune group) aided by creditors, existing stockholders and merchant banks mounted a rescue operation that was eventually accepted by all shareholders, leading to the appointment of Wirrawy and his management team.

Among the the terms of this agreement was a staff shareholding scheme providing for staff to own up to 49% of the airline, the creation of a single staff union, a moratorium on industrial action, pay cuts for a specified period, agreements providing for development of flexible work procedures and a commitment that safety would remain the ultimate consideration in all matters.

"Qantas is going to fight back" announced Wirraway, "we are going to prove that no one, with or without Government backing, can produce a safer, friendlier, more convenient, and excellent transport product for the money than Qantas".

These proved to be prophetic words. Wirraway's first luck was the finessing of the sale of its A380 aircraft production slots and the negotiation of contracts to purchase 200 smaller aircraft at a profit of $500 million that was enough to address its most pressing financial needs.

This sale was necessitated by the new Qantas strategic direction of abandoning its Sydney based hubbing strategy and flying smaller aircraft more frequently to direct city to city pairs from its new bases in each capital city.

Economies came from the merging of the international and domestic operations and aircraft fleets that provided enough workload to support the multi base strategy, and extremely sophisticated scheduling and route management (some would say almost magical). "There are no domestic and international divisions anymore," stated Wirraway," there is just Qantas. You want to fly from Adelaide to Athens or Alice Springs? Makes no difference. We will take you door to door with no unnecessary stopovers".

Further economies came from the sale of much of its Sydney based heavy maintenance facilities that were moved to country NSW. This proved popular with staff who liked the more relaxed lifestyle and cheaper cost of housing.

Outsourcing was discarded except for things for which mass markets already existed "People pay to fly on airplanes piloted by Australians, crewed by Australians, and maintained by Australians. We promise we will always give them that Australian expereince. Its what makes Qantas what it is." said Wirraway.

Management was rejigged to provide a very small head office function, located at Sydney Airport itself and the distribution of administrative and training areas to bases with cheaper real estate.

Although initially sceptical, domestic and international customers eventually warmed to the Qantas marketing campaign freindly service - (Qantas, its Australian for "Great!" ), smaller aircraft with larger crews - (Qantas, say hello to your fellow passengers) as well as its now renowned flawless ability to deliver passengers with minimal disruption to their final destination.

Qantas pitched itself towards the higher cost end of the market explained Wirraway;"we ask for a slight premium on the ticket price" he explained, "but we give you more seat room and better service, a choice of more direct daily daily flights to your destination. There are cheaper airlines out there, but they are not as good value for money as we are." This paved the way for the triumphant return of Qantas to the 150 ports it now flies to.

At the time, the city to city strategy was seen as risky, but that was before we had experienced the A380 phenomenon and the creation of Air rage riot squads at hubs to deal with dynamics of 700 or so frustrated passengers.

Qantas declared profits of $5 billion dollars last year and its 80,000 staff stand to share approximately half of its recently declared 2 billion dollar dividend.
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Old 11th Feb 2005, 00:19
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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the new Qantas strategic direction of abandoning its Sydney based hubbing strategy
Sunfish, it has already been demonstrated that this "hubbing" exists only in your mind.

It is possible to fly overseas directly with QF from many Australian airports without "hubbing" through Sydney. Therefore there is no "hubbing".

Just because you found it hard to make a booking shows the popularity of the route.
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Old 11th Feb 2005, 01:34
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A little footnote to the tale of the dumped female CEO of HP:

She left with a severance package of $21 million US!!!!

Now that's what management is about these days!!!!

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Old 11th Feb 2005, 04:56
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I suspect that the original thrust of this thread is incorrect in that Frankfurt patterns are not available for flight attendants from the middle of the year as they will be crewed by F/A's from the new UK base. I do not believe that GOD wants to close the FRA route at a time when he is publicly telling the Australian government that he wants greater access for Qantas to European destinations.
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Old 11th Feb 2005, 05:50
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Horse`s Mouth

Friend in Rez says seats are not being sold to /from FRA from the middle of June
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