Jeez, I know this is all pure speculation, and I didn't realise QF had pulled out of so many places. Question is, is it a permanent pull out? Does QF still have rights to fly to those places? Are those rights transferable to another Australian carrier? Are they saleable? That might give us an indication.
Jetjockey, with respect "stupidity and complicity" are not necessary. The only thing necessary is to keep the QF brand name intact throughout whatever process they intend submitting you to.
I didn't realise that Dixon was spouting about QF being a "legacy airline" that is code for "you have no future". Being a marketer, he understands the value of the brand name and will do everything he can to preserve it. If he really is spouting about "legacy airline" that is both bad news and pure stupidity.
The use of the silly "legacy" word was first applied in business speak to computer systems as in "legacy system", which meant something you inherited, but couldn't turn off because its replacement hadn't been built yet. In addition it was usually impossible to easily interface the legacy system to the new systems or find any programmers who even knew the computer language. Needless to say many "legacy" systems have outlived the "new improved" systems and are still running just fine today, albeit in a slightly tidied up form - thats why its a silly term.
The sad part is that if Dixon is using this word, then he probably has the Board convinced as well (ever heard of groupthink?), and it will totally color their thinking. Thats why there is no strategy for QF - QF in the Boards eyes, has no future, their strategy is to "harvest" it, keep the good bits, screw the last drop of blood out of the rest of it before throwing it away. J* has strategy because its part of the future.
I'm not sure any signifigant institutions are holding QF shares as a blue chip investment grade product, they may well be holding shares for tactical reasons including warehousing them for someone. A simple brieifing about the necessity of euthanising the "Legacy airline", some platitudes about shareholder value being in the brand name and some blue sky pronouncements and the institutions will roll over and go back to sleep.
As for the Federal Government, it is completely possible that they have already had a briefing about QF's strategy to de-unionise, which is music to their ears anyway. They will deny everything as usual and look the other way, exactly as they did when Patrick's busted open the Melbourne waterfront with men with dogs and black balaclavas.
The commission drop would be explainable by a "harvesting" strategy - which is simply squeeze every last drop of value out of the "legacy airline" before euthanising it. Don't worry about long term relationships with travel agents, there is no "long term".
As for A380's and other acquisitions, I would be surprised if he would inflict a unionised workforce on them. That means that there would be no heavy maintenance done here. Question:- Does the A380 initial provisioning include a full swag of heavy maintenance spares? More than one set of flaps? Undercarriage? Are you setting up to maintain this stuff? I suspect not, but then Sunfish is just idly speculating about all this anyway. Its probably all a mirage, business will continue as normal. One should not see conspiracy where happenings can be explained by simple stupidity.
Last edited by Sunfish; 8th Feb 2005 at 18:03.