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Erebus 25 years on

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Old 16th Feb 2016, 00:35
  #581 (permalink)  
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Welsh Wingman,

I know it would take quite a bit of reading, but all these points have been raised in this thread over a number of years now, but every now and then, people like yourself bring up the subject again.

I doubt whether all the toing and froing has changed anybodies mind as to where blame lies.

To my mind the most important task of the crew was to bring the passengers back home safe and sound.

That did not happen, I have my opinion as to why this is so, many agree, many disagree, I strongly disagree with the legal findings, from a judge with no Aviation expertise, and strongly agree with the Aircraft Accident Inspectors report who had been involved in all manner of Aviation endeavours all his working life.

All of value to come out of this event, I hesitate to call it an accident, will have been well and truly assimilated into peoples memory cells, and hopefully such an event will not be repeated.
 
Old 16th Feb 2016, 00:44
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Prospector,

Fair enough.

That was not one of Chippendale's better reports, from altering the CVR transcript outside of accepted protocols to alleging the flight crew were not deceived by the changed nav track of which they were not notified (self-evidently they were, the crash site location conclusively proving it).

Mahon contributed enormously to aviation safely, even if his report was ultimately flawed in relation to airmanship and post-incident events. He should have called more upon Rochford Hughes, for one thing.

Those Antarctic flights were systemically an accident waiting to happen for AirNZ, hence the hull loss on the 14th trip down there.

Nice chatting. Be well.

WW
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Old 29th Feb 2016, 06:46
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Whose side are you on, Welsh Wingman? He who sits on the fence as regards Erebus eventually ends up with a wooden post up their arse.


Mahon's report was garbage and it contributed very little to aviation safety. His finding that the crew were blameless was demonstrably wrong (and it appears that you would agree).


The so-called "alteration" of the CVR transcript had nothing to do with anything, despite the attention given to the subject by Mahon.


As to the alteration of the waypoint, Chippendale's finding appears to be very strange but it's explainable if you go into the background and into the initial statements made to him by other pilots. That said, it's obvious, in the absence of evidence of a murder/suicide, that the crew thought that Erebus was out to their left, not dead ahead. Was that assumption justified? Definitely not. Where was the waypoint, in fact? McMurdo Station. Where were they told, at the briefing, where the waypoint was? McMurdo Station. Where does a track from Cape Hallett to McMurdo Station go? Over the summit of Erebus.


Anyone who thinks that some old flight plan that might have been floating around at the briefing exonerates the crew is living in cloud cuckoo land.
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Old 29th Feb 2016, 07:52
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. . . .in the absence of evidence of a murder/suicide . . .
There's a late in the piece strange aside. All who have made a close study of the disaster know what happened. . . know how it happened . . . and maybe out of forensic interest, are happy to debate the minutia ad nauseam with any other interested party who has read widely enough.
That said, in the absence of a thorough expert impartial analysis and publication to the contrary, the books written by Justice Peter Mahon and Captain Gordon Vette will ever receive the credence they deserve.

Last edited by Fantome; 29th Feb 2016 at 08:13. Reason: out of deference to the opinion of 'prospector'.
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Old 29th Feb 2016, 08:06
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The carping of an obsessive minority should not even be rated a distraction.

All who have made a close study of the disaster know what happened

Are you saying that the people who disagree with Mahons findings have not made a close study??

. That is the sort of pointless statement that will likely start the whole process over again.

That said, in the absence of a thorough expert impartial analysis and publication to the contrary,
Try reading New Zealand Tragedies Aviation, compiled by John King. It has a very good section covering Erebus. And from someone who had no personal axe to grind, deserves far more credence then the publications you appear to subscribe to.

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Old 1st Mar 2016, 09:24
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Not in any way knocking John King for the quality of his research and his written output covering New Zealand aviation extensively . . .. but to suggest that his grasp of the subject (Impact Erebus) is superior to that demonstrated by the aforementioned gentleman is surprising, to put it mildly.
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Old 1st Mar 2016, 18:27
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The two publications you quote, Impact Erebus. by Gordon Vette, and Verdict on Erebus by Peter Mahon could hardly be called impartial accounts of such an event.
The Foreword to Vette's book is by Peter Mahon, and of course Mahons book is to try and justify his opinions.

You will note that I suggested John King's publication as an unbiased resume from many different sources, including opinion of American judge who differed completely from those published in the books you give as unbiased accounts of the event.
 
Old 1st Mar 2016, 21:25
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Many horrific accidents after investigation were found to be caused by an irrefutable failure in the first instance to foresee the potentially fatal error, where you have a single cut and dried causative factor. The crash at Mount Erebus has never lent itself to that kind of simplistic verdict. There will always be contention. MH370 will be debated and discussed seemingly forever. In smaller forums, TE 901 likewise.
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Old 1st Mar 2016, 23:40
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Erebus is probably one of the best accidents that "lends itself to that kind of simplistic verdict":


** Descended below MSA without radar confirmation of position. Had that not happened, the co-ordinates would not have mattered.


** Descended below MSA using AINS to confirm position, which was not permitted. Had that not happened, the co-ordinates would not have mattered.


** Captain pretended to be VMC when he knew he wasn't. Had that not happened, the co-ordinates would not have mattered.


** Captain received contradictory information about the position of the final waypoint and did nothing to resolve the contradiction. Had that not happened, the co-ordinates would not have mattered.


** Captain levelled out at 2000 feet and saw no horizon ahead. Instead of immediately climbing out he descended a further 500 feet and continued on for nearly two minutes. (ie, Chippendale's stated cause of the accident.) Had that not occurred, the co-ordinates would not have mattered.
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Old 2nd Mar 2016, 06:53
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ampan,

I would think that it would be impossible to refute any of those arguments, But we now have this

https://www.nzalpa.org.nz/About-Us/A...memorial-award

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Old 2nd Mar 2016, 09:52
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Not helpful to denigrate or suggest invidious comparisons as to relative degrees of acumen, impartiality or profoundly imbued integrity. . . . or moreover to imply that these two are not worthy of the respectful recognition they have been accorded.


2009 - Hon. Justice Peter T. Mahon (Posthumously)

Justice Peter Thomas Mahon QC received the 2009 Jim Collins Award for his exceptional contribution to aviation safety. Justice Mahon’s controversial 1981 Royal Commission of Inquiry report into the 1979 Erebus air accident in Antarctica, cited organisational failure, ‘administration errors made by the Navigation Division’, as the primary factor of the accident, and exonerated the pilots from the blame that was apportioned to them in the 1980 Chippindale Report.


1991 - Captain Alwyn Gordon Vette

Nominations drew attention to Captain Vette’s coordination and command of a rescue mission in the Pacific which earned him the Johnston memorial Award from the Guild of Air Pilots and the President’s Award from the McDonnell Douglas Corporation, his independent research into the causes of the Erebus accident, his publication and production of a book and video on the Erebus disaster (Impact Erebus) – proceeds from which go to the Captain A G Vette Flight Safety Research Fund, his assistance to students working on aviation safety matters, his continuing contribution to areas of ergonomics and human factors in flight safety and his active membership of the New Zealand Psychological Society – specialising in aviation psychology. Gordon was the recipient of a Presidential Citation from the International Federation of Airline Pilots' Associations at their annual conference in Auckland, March 2009.


Captain Vette is also now deceased - RIP - http://www.nzedge.com/news/hero-skie...on-vette-dies/

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Old 2nd Mar 2016, 18:16
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Not impugning anybody, or their integrity, many believe that this man had the cause of the Erebus disaster identified correctly, and his pedigree gives him far more credibility.


In 1992, when a Chief Executive was appointed, Chippindale became the Chief Inspector of Accidents with the TAIC, an appointment he retained until his retirement on 31 October 1998.

During this time period, he was the Investigator-in-Charge of 48 aircraft and rail accidents and incidents, and had overall responsibility for the investigation of approximately 400 accidents and incidents. He was involved in several major aircraft accident investigation such as being the chief investigator of the Mount Erebus Disaster, the DC-10 accident in Antarctica in which 257 lives were lost.

He was a member of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) teams, which investigated the Mozambican Tupolev Tu-134 air disaster in South Africa in which the President of Mozambique lost his life, and the shooting down of three civil aircraft: Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over Russia and two United Nations (UN) L-130 aircraft in Angola.

Chippindale has represented New Zealand at Accident Investigation Group meetings of ICAO and drafted the ICAO circular on the provision of "Family Assistance" after an aircraft accident. He was also the New Zealand Councillor to the International Society of Air Accident Investigators and a transport accident investigation consultant.

In 2004, Chippindale was awarded the 'Jerome F Lederer' award for outstanding lifetime contributions in the field of aircraft accident investigation and prevention and achievement of the International society of Air Safety Investigators' Objectives and technical excellence. In March 2007, Chippindale was one of 22 people who received a New Zealand Special Service Medal (Erebus) at a ceremony in Wellington. The medal was awarded for the work in what became known as "Operation Overdue".


.
 
Old 2nd Mar 2016, 20:19
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And several of those others do not know what they are talking about. A good example is the link to the article about Gordon Vette's death, which contains a piece by someone called Christine Negroni:

"Alwyn Gordon Vette, a New Zealand pilot whose independentanalysis of the 1972 Air New Zealand airplane crash in Antarctica helped toidentify an important hazard in Arctic flying, has died in Auckland. He was 82.Captain Vette ... was ... the recipient of numerous honours for heroicscarried out while flying DC-10s for Air New Zealand. ...
Photos developed from the passengers’ cameras found in thewreckage showed that the weather over Antarctica had been clear moments beforethe crash, launching Vette on a search to find out why none of the men on theflight deck saw or tried to avoid the mountain as the plane approached itdescending through 2500ft. Vette discovered that in certain conditions, thepowerful effect of “whiteout” eliminated visual borders, and that pilots mightnot see obstacles as big as mountains directly in front of them.


  • The accident did not occur in 1972.
  • Vette was not "the recipient of numerous honours for heroics carried out while flying DC10s for Air New Zealand"
  • The passengers photos did not show that the weather over Antarctica had been clear moments before the crash.
  • Vette did not discover sector whiteout. It had been know about for decades.







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Old 4th Mar 2016, 04:56
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The first part of my original post has been edited by this website to the point that it makes no sense. It appears that that the operators of this so-called forum are yet another bunch of 'believers'.


No doubt this post will disappear very shortly.




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Old 4th Mar 2016, 05:46
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Post Number 40 on this thread from 'Uncommon Sense' is worth a revisit, since it serves as a gentle reminder that by contrast, the bittterness and pettiness of many disputatious posters on PPRuNe down all the years, is as nothing compared with the deep inexpressible sadness residing in the hearts of the most affected.

The debate about Chippendale / Mahon / The Privvy Council Appeal / Morris has been going on for 25 years - you will not resolve it on this thread. Nobody is probably going to definitively decide it.

Anyway wasn't the point of this thread to just agree that whatever happened, and whoever was responsible and with whatever proportion, the event was an absolute tragedy - especially to a country of it's size, and one that was very close knit?

Family and friends of mine are often surprised at how, like other avaition people, I can dispassionately look at accident reports and photographs and seek information out of them about what went wrong and why. But when I see the photos of Erebus, I still get a shiver up my spine - it is the difference of association I guess, remember what an absolute tragedy it was for NZ and the effect on the psyche of the whole country at the time. It sounds melodramatic, but anyone who lived there at the time I am sure will attest to the enormity of it at the time.

My father worked for the company in flight ops and was working at Mangere that night - we watched the newsreader on NZTV (Dougal Stevenson was it?) reading the fateful newsflash. Living in the western hills of Auckland overlooking the Manakau we were surrounded by ANZ families and it was a tough couple of months leading up to Christmas - as they say everybody in NZ knew someone connected to Erebus - but around our neck of the woods everybody seemed to know a few.

My fathers first story of the night after getting home was the embarassment of seeing the MD Davis stumbling down the escalators at the airport clearly drunk whilst relatives of the families looked on - it was not ANZ's finest hour with respect to PR. As I recall they had just started up their 'Nobody does it Better' advertising campaign, which was quickly ditched. The PR campaign got worse when the homes of the operating crew were broken in to and documents removed.

The only comfort I take from the whole tragedy is that for the occupants of ZK-NZP the end looked mercifully swift.

The pain of the families , including around where I lived, was unneccessarily drawn out, and continues to be today, by stupid politics.

It is said that NZ grew up that day - more is the pity. It was to grow up further in the following couple of years witnessing the mire of political manipulation.
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Old 4th Mar 2016, 06:09
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Of my god, just give it up. The direct cause of the event was the aircraft was operated below MSA when not in VMC conditions against published policy. If that hadn't have happened then no amount of 'wrong coordinates, bad training etc 'would have mattered.

Now, that is not to say the crew is to blame, although the CAA aproval clearly stated that flight below MSA was not permitted, the reality is that the crews who operated these flights were told that a VMC descent was acceptable and expected as the flights were openly sold to the travelling public showing images that were taken on aircraft doing just that.

The CP, more than likely, thought he was in VMC. Biggest lesson out of this debacle is..... Never trust any procedure were you are told to do something that is against manual procedures! And when you get the gut feeling that something ain't right, like this crew did, get the hell out of there.

And of course sadly, these things happen from time to time, we just hope that we learn some lessons from it.
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Old 4th Mar 2016, 06:33
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"The CP, more than likely, thought he was VMC"? Demonstrably not true. He had already summarised sector whiteout; "Very difficult to tell the difference between the cloud and the ice." He knew that from flying sorties for the RNZAF out of Wigram in the 1950s. He knew full well that he would not be VMC below the cloud layer. The reason for has expressly declaring that he was VMC was because he was actually relying on the AINS to confirm his position, contrary to rules that he also knew full well. Mahon placed great significance on his locking the aircraft back onto the nav track at 1500 feet. So do I, but to the opposite effect. Wasn't he supposed to be VMC? (I apologise for not concluding this post with some feigned politeness and another ******** comment about flight safety.)
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Old 5th May 2016, 07:23
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I have not posted on this forum before, but have been an avid scholar of this disaster the early 1980’s. Until I came here I believed that no-one could have studied this event in more depth than myself; however having read many of the insightful contributions here I’m now not so sure.

I have no conflict of interest to declare except for the fact I had chance meetings with both Mahon and Chippindale in the 1980s when I was a student.

I was an avid proponent of Mahon until I became a private pilot myself, studied more about the differences between high and low altitude navigation, IFR flying and more about Aviation in general and I now believe that the factors leading directly to this disaster were the fault of Capt. Collins. Other factors which have been well described were all secondary.

Why is this still important in 2016? Because many people are still living with a direct personal connection to the disaster. The Collins family have been militant in trying to clear Jim Collins’s name. In doing so, they sully the reputations of Chippindale, Gemmell and many others. But their loved ones too, carry the pain. The Collins family would serve their man far better by maintaining some quiet dignity.

A few points in no particular order.

- There should have been no need to arm the INS during VFR flight. The fact that Collins did so strongly suggests, as many others have done, that he was not truly VFR and was using the INS as some sort of “backup”.

- The INS is designed for navigating an aircraft at high altitude from one waypoint to the next. Nothing else. End of story. Think about it. If it was that crucial a navigation device – to the extent that a single wrong digit could crash an aircraft – do you think the crew would have been permitted to enter the data manually?

- Whether Jim Collins was a meticulous pilot, whether he used to put life jackets on his kids, whether he was in general a good person is all utterly irrelevant to whether he made errors on the day.

- Mahon suggests that Flight Engineer Brooks (himself a pilot) only became alarmed at the precise moment he said “I don’t like this”. I believe this to be fanciful in the extreme, and contrary to evidence.

- At 2000’ and not in VFR Collins should have climbed away immediately, not descended further to 1500’

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Old 6th May 2016, 00:40
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PapaHotel6,

That is a very good first post, and brings up a good point that has not been mentioned previously, or if so only fleetingly.

The families of the other people involved.
 
Old 6th May 2016, 04:19
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Cheers!

Yes, the families of all those maligned by Mahon et al. would certainly have had a cross to bear. To their credit, they have maintained a level of dignity not exhibited by the Collins family - themselves served badly by the likes of Mahon, Holmes, Dunne etc. - all of whom I believe were utterly sincere but - wrong.

Mahon put his premise in believable terms and the mob at large with little or no aviation knowledge like Mahon himself, bought it ("big evil corporation shafting the little guy/flight plan/changed to fly the plane into a mountain/optical illusion called whiteout/aircraft are flown by computers now don'tchya know, a concept Chippindale was too boneheaded to understand" etc. etc). On the other hand, Chippindale saw no need to "sell" his conclusions, which to the public at large seemed like clutching at straws or mere semantics "16000 ft MSA?!/IFR vs VFR? C'mon, give me a break!!" etc.

A shining example of a how a little knowledge can be dangerous.
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