QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

[ExtraShot]

This topic seems to have been raised a couple of times in other threads, so to avoid the continued hijack of threads important to others (Air NZ), perhaps the rumors/info could be collated here?

Potential Redundancies are an interesting, though alarming topic none the less, and although We have been told it’s not on the cards, it’s an entirely possible direction.

Of particular interest may be rumors surrounding a potential Voluntary Redundancy package in the works. The details of which, and the rumored target market, is I’m sure of great interest to many of us.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

This topic seems to have been raised a couple of times in other threads, so to avoid the continued hijack of threads important to others (Air NZ), perhaps the rumors/info could be collated here?

Potential Redundancies are an interesting, though alarming topic none the less, and although We have been told it’s not on the cards, it’s an entirely possible direction.

Of particular interest may be rumors surrounding a potential Voluntary Redundancy package in the works. The details of which, and the rumored target market, is I’m sure of great interest to many of us.

Or......rather than speculate or circulate rumours we could simply wait a few weeks and be told what is happening after they determine the fleet/flying plan and crew requirements going forward.

[Ragnor]

Well just announced by McCormack the Government will continue to underwrite flights until September. Every bit helps!

The federal government will continue to underwrite domestic flights operated by Qantas, Virgin and Regional Express between capital cities and regional destinations, even as airlines start to add capacity back into their networks in response to rising traveller demand.
Deputy prime minister and minister for transport Michael McCormack will announce on Sunday the government will extend its support package for domestic flights, due to expire Monday, through to September 30.
It will extend financial support for regional airlines to "ensure regional communities continue to receive essential air services" from a September 30 end date to December 31.
“The Australian Government is doing everything possible to ensure the aviation industry is sustained throughout the pandemic so that it can rebound on the other side,” Mr McCormack said.
"The measures announced today will help ensure Australian airlines and operators can maintain essential air services as we map out our economic recovery.”
The original domestic flight package was worth $165 million and enabled Qantas and Virgin to operate around 120 return flights a week. New contracts for the second round of the support package have not been finalised.
The government will also extend a waiver of government operational charges and fuel taxes for airlines; extended a $100 million grants package for regional airlines, and extended partial relief from land tax charges for major airports.
Qantas this week said it will ramp-up its domestic flying from around 5 per cent of its pre-pandemic capacity to 15 per cent by the end of June and to 40 per cent by the end of July, depending on when state borders re-opened.
The airline's boss Alan Joyce said there was pent up demand for travel and his airline had already experienced a surge in bookings for intra-state leisure routes such as Sydney to Ballina (Byron Bay), Perth to Broome and Brisbane to Cairns as pandemic travel restrictions eased.
The federal government was been criticised for not stepping in to prevent Virgin Australia going into voluntary administration in April, with the airline saying the waiving of fuel taxes and landing fees were of little benefit when most of its fleet was grounded due to COVID-19.

[ExtraShot]

Or......rather than speculate or circulate rumours we could simply wait a few weeks and be told what is happening after they determine the fleet/flying plan and crew requirements going forward.


Erm. If you aren’t into speculation or the circulation of rumors I think you’re on the wrong website.

[normanton]

Why would they offer VR packages when they can just stand you down indefinitely? Unless you are referring to the 747 fleet. But again, if they never "retire" the fleet, they can just leave you stood down.

As management and HR have consistently said, there is no time limit to the stand down. This came from the same people who said you cant use sick leave while stood down. We all know how that concluded in the courts.

You would assume they have down the homework on this as well.

[Chad Gates]

Norm. The initial package would most likely be directed at 747 guys and gals. They have to admit it is retired soon and that will trigger a RIN.

[cloudsurfng]

Bit hard to RIN when nothing is flying...they could do a RIN, but chances are the training for it will be way in the future anyway.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Erm. If you aren’t into speculation or the circulation of rumors I think you’re on the wrong website.

Good one.....

Rumours and speculation do nothing except increase anxiety levels in those vulnerable and most exposed. But go ahead and fill your boots. Have fun

[ExtraShot]

Norm. The initial package would most likely be directed at 747 guys and gals. They have to admit it is retired soon and that will trigger a RIN.


I’m trying to recall the details of the last VR package offered a couple of years back. A RIN is likely quite a lot more expensive.

I remember it was limited to who could take it by rank and fleet (747/767?), but the more exact details of it escape me. I also recall that pretty shortly after it was completed they ended up with a shortage on the 747 and had to train back onto it... thats obviously unlikely to happen this time.

[Buster Hyman]

... thats obviously unlikely to happen this time.
Oh, so you're new to Aviation...:}

[Angle of Attack]

Extrashot, it was a little more than a couple of years ago but by memory it was something in the region of 18 months pay + leave entitlements VR offered to 767/747 pilots, mainly Captains took it.

[ANstar]

Why would they offer VR packages when they can just stand you down indefinitely? Unless you are referring to the 747 fleet. But again, if they never "retire" the fleet, they can just leave you stood down.

As management and HR have consistently said, there is no time limit to the stand down. This came from the same people who said you cant use sick leave while stood down. We all know how that concluded in the courts.

You would assume they have down the homework on this as well.

I guess if you make people redundant now you can re hire them on lesser contracts?

[Section28- BE]

McCormack Press Release link here (FOR what the Talking Points/Words maybe, worth....) : https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/mccormack/media-release/federal-government-guarantees-domestic-aviation-network

Extract here:Federal Government guarantees domestic aviation networkQantas and Virgin Australia Groups will operate a minimum domestic network servicing the most critical metropolitan and regional routes in Australia thanks to a significant investment from the Federal Government of up to an initial $165 million.

Underwriting the cost of the network, which includes all state and territory capital cities and major regional centres such as Albury, Alice Springs, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Kalgoorlie, Mildura, Port Lincoln, Rockhampton, Tamworth, Townsville and Wagga Wagga, comes in addition to the more than $1 billion of Federal Government support for Australia’s aviation industry in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development Michael McCormack said sustaining Australia’s aviation industry is critical to protecting livelihoods and saving lives and that’s why the Government has acted again today to provide further support.

"As Australians are asked to stay home unless absolutely necessary, we are ensuring secure and affordable access for passengers who need to travel, including our essential workers such as frontline medical personnel and defence personnel, as well as supporting the movement of essential freight such as critical medicine and personal protective equipment," Mr McCormack said.

"We know that a strong domestic aviation network is critical to Australia’s success and today’s announcement demonstrates our commitment, yet again, to maintaining connectivity during this pandemic.

"This investment will also help Australians returning from overseas, who find themselves in a different city after 14 days of mandatory quarantine, complete their journey home safely."

This announcement complements the actions the Federal Liberal and Nationals Government has already taken to underwrite international flights to help Australians get home, as well as flights to our regional and remote communities through the $198 million Regional Airlines Network Support program announced on 28 March and the $715 million package announced on 18 March.

These arrangements will last for an initial eight weeks with a review mechanism in place, where the Government will continue to monitor the market and determine if further action is required..

We continue to support every Australian to get to the other side of this pandemic with more than $320 billion of investment, including our $130 billion JobKeeper Payment to support workers and businesses.Media Contact:Mr McCormack – Tess Salmon 0467 740 017 | Dean Shachar 0418 202 860

Rgds all
S28- BE

[ExtraShot]

Extrashot, it was a little more than a couple of years ago but by memory it was something in the region of 18 months pay + leave entitlements VR offered to 767/747 pilots, mainly Captains took it.


Cheers. Yes, I do remember it being not too bad of an offer. Not extremely wide ranging in terms of who was eligible though.

[dolphi]

If you believe that redundancies aren't on the way across the board within the Qantas group, you’re living in an alternate reality. The increasing cost in accruing annual leave without any flying across some fleets is a cost Qantas can do without. The only question is whether it will be done on seniority or fleet. With the get out of jail free card, and the importance of reducing expenditure, my guess is it will be done by fleet to save in training cost.

[Ragnor]

I think international across the group maybe, domestic crews should be fine if there is some on domestic tho I wonder if any will be made redundant on the 717 now QF have purchased it!

[Green.Dot]

dolphi is right. If people aren’t mentally preparing for the possibility of a redundancy, (Int’l or Dom) then the fall from grace will hurt a lot more. If it doesn’t eventuate then great, but I can’t see QF escaping it. If you don’t want to think about it, don’t read this forum.

Good luck all

[dragon man]

In 2015 the VR was 12 months. A VR is at the companies discretion and is a minimum of 26 weeks, that means if they don’t want to they can go straight to CR which is . The following package will apply to a pilot who is made compulsorily redundant:
(a) three (3) weeks’ pay for each completed year of service up to and including five (5) years’ service, with a minimum of four (4) weeks’ pay;
(b) four (4) weeks’ pay for each completed year of service in excess of five (5) years;

Further 3 months notice of CR is required. It was alluded to last week by the CP that we would be hearing news shortly we do not want to hear. AIPA are meeting Qantas on Wednesday to discuss VR or CR I don’t know which. Three months notice from the end of this month is the end September when jobkeeper finishes. As Green.Dot says above if you do want to think about it don’t read this forum. I would like to think that they can handle the numbers thru VR , LWOP and maybe something that they have done in the past and that’s leave with pay.

[ruprecht]

It was alluded to last week by the CP that we would be hearing news shortly we do not want to hear.
I must have missed that. What was said?

[ozbiggles]

I don’t want to see it but I think you you would have to say AirNZ is probably a good guide to the future of the red rat, The only saviour would be the collapse of VA. I think that is the only thing delaying the inbound management emails of consultation, right sizing, facing the future etc,etc. I just can’t see any substantial International travel for 12 months minimum. It might get worse too now if all the self serving protestors who are above all law abiding citizens kick this thing off again. I’m not sure how the state premiers can keep the borders shut now when they turn a blind eye to 20000 in the streets holding hands. That may help get airlines back in a more meaningful way conversely, the next two weeks will see.
.

[cloudsurfng]

If you believe that redundancies aren't on the way across the board within the Qantas group, you’re living in an alternate reality. The increasing cost in accruing annual leave without any flying across some fleets is a cost Qantas can do without. The only question is whether it will be done on seniority or fleet. With the get out of jail free card, and the importance of reducing expenditure, my guess is it will be done by fleet to save in training cost.

get out of jail free card?

[dolphi]

get out of jail free card?

I think we’ve all seen examples of EBA’s been totally disregarded due to the Covid-19 economic downturn.

[No Idea Either]

The pandemic Surfer........QF will take it to the IR courts and plead for the companys survival, and then they will get the legal permission they need to do whatever they want...

[Keg]

To which I hope the response from the court is ‘why did you proceed to put these terms to a vote when COVID was already a known thing?’

[didrechambers77]

The Group itself, stands to gain 7--10% market share after the fall of VA.

[Autobrakes4]

My take. Redundancies are expensive for the senior crew. A380 crew to be kept on stand down for a long while. Quite a few 747 crew (Cpt's and FO's) will retire. Others handled via a small RIN. I can't see Qf doing a Rin from top to bottom under the contract as it's too expensive and they will go to FW to say it could potentially risk the company and its finances so better to do things another way rather than risk 30000 jobs. I think they would win that. My guess and the cheapest way, make the bottom 300 (or whatever the surplus is) LH pilots redundant at little cost and heavy crew the B787's and A330's in the short to medium term. As flying picks up and pilot numbers are needed again, redundant pilots would be brought back on in seniority order. Yes heavy crewing is more expensive but a hellava lot cheaper than redundancies at the top end by fleet or a Rin from top to bottom. Just my 2c.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

The Group itself, stands to gain 7--10% market share after the fall of VA.

Absolutely, the smaller Virgin is after administration, the fewer job loses will be required from QF group (on the domestic fleets).

[crosscutter]

I suspect SH Mainline pilots might be safe. Flexible MGH (only need 70% of flying back to stand all pilots up) and Jetconnect might face the axe. I’m sure JetStar domestic has similar flexibility?

I agree with many of Autobrakes4 points. I think though the final number will be far less. I guess that depends on us.

[Wingspar]

To which I hope the response from the court is ‘why did you proceed to put these terms to a vote when COVID was already a known thing?’

Kegs spot on!
FW to QF,”Why did you push for this EA vote, against some pilots wishes, at a time when you basically shut down the airline in the depths of a pandemic?”
QF were totally aware of the provisions of the EA including CR, RIN etc!
Also QF have clearly stated that the company can run as is ‘til the end of next year?
Where’s the dire need to run outside the EA?
VA probably have that ability through administration but not QF.
QF might be ticked off they’ve run it so well over the years.
As they tell everyone!
As has been mentioned, selected VR to some. Most probably to 380 and 744 crews but not for a while.
This stand down facility is a godsend to the company.
Crew on those aircraft will probably start, quite rightly, to jump up and down as their leave runs out and be insisting the company make a decision.
No doubt hoping for some VR because the alternative is very costly for the company.

[Fonz121]

Why make pilots redundant when they could be offered LWOP?

[Chad Gates]

Will QF even need to go to FW? AIPA and the pilots are in a difficult position. Agree to the demands of QF (assuming they want to make people redundant by fleet) or risk going to FW to defend the LIFO Or even the seniority principles in total. QF wouldn’t go to FW for a temporary exemption to these provisions, they would try to have them removed entirely. Would seniority be in jeopardy? And what would be the odds of success for AIPA based on the timeframe of the LH vote (very slim I would think)? It’s a different bench than that of 2012.
My bet is AIPA will agree to some temporary measure to allow a redundancy out of seniority (with the right of return in seniority) by aircraft type under very strict conditions, along with a VR package by aircraft type. Sad, but that’s what I see.

[dr dre]

To which I hope the response from the court is ‘why did you proceed to put these terms to a vote when COVID was already a known thing?’

It could probably be argued that when the vote took place the expected period of the stand down was only short term and things were expected to be back to normal within a short period of time. Any long term reduction in passenger numbers only became apparent well after the vote took place, so the extent of any retraining was not foreseen at the time.

It was alluded to last week by the CP that we would be hearing news shortly we do not want to hear. AIPA are meeting Qantas on Wednesday to discuss VR or CR I don’t know which. Three months notice from the end of this month is the end September when jobkeeper finishes. As Green.Dot says above if you do want to think about it don’t read this forum.

No that was not said. In fact TLS has often said he does not see the need to make anyone redundant, if the network you had in 2019 is the one you want in a few years when demand returns time why would you go about redundancies and RINs in the meantime if you need same crew in a few years?

They would be seeking “flexibilities” - which could be things like not accruing leave whilst stood down, lower divisors to bring more people back to work, possibility training more onto the 737 to absorb excess crew, they’re doing absolutely everything to ensure the most people can remain employed in the long run. This would be done in conjunction with the union so I guess that’s why they are meeting.


As has been mentioned, selected VR to some. Most probably to 380 and 744 crews but not for a while.
This stand down facility is a godsend to the company.
Crew on those aircraft will probably start, quite rightly, to jump up and down as their leave runs out and be insisting the company make a decision.


The company has been quite clear they can keep pilots on stand down indefinitely, and even some suggest until the network is back at 100% of the original one. It could be said if there are any COVID-19 related international travel restrictions then at least until they are all removed, which going off government statements at least 12 months, or maybe until a vaccine is found.

Even if they are RIN’d somewhere they’ll just be kept on stand down for the foreseeable future anyway as there is little international flying available to do any training.

So I believe there will be no CR (I hope so as well) and possibly some VR, but not much.

[patty50]

This stand down facility is a godsend to the company.
.

Godsend for staff too really, find something else to do for a while and at least you will come back to the same EBA while still accruing all your leave.

The layoff numbers around the world are breathtaking. Plenty will be rehired eventually but no doubt on worse conditions.
20000 finishing up with Air Canada.

[Chad Gates]

Godsend for staff too really, find something else to do for a while and at least you will come back to the same EBA while still accruing all your leave.

The layoff numbers around the world are breathtaking. Plenty will be rehired eventually but no doubt on worse conditions.
20000 finishing up with Air Canada.

Considering the words of TLS in the last webinar, that particular provision seems to be the problem.

[Blueskymine]

Considering the words of TLS in the last webinar, that particular provision seems to be the problem.

It may be,

but that’s the price QF have got to pay for the flexibility of having the crew there for a fast ramp up.

It takes a year to run a recruitment campaign and have a pilot in the seat at the end of it......

[Chad Gates]

It may be,

but that’s the price QF have got to pay for the flexibility of having the crew there for a fast ramp up.

It takes a year to run a recruitment campaign and have a pilot in the seat at the end of it......

fair enough, and if TLS used the word “flexibility” less than 50 times, I’d be surprised.
I don’t think they would need to recruit, and really, having them (I’m meaning very junior S/O’s) return from redundancy in seniority order, would serve exactly the same purpose as a stand down. Pilots made redundant could of course seek other employment, but they can do that while stood down also.

[OnceBitten]

Provisions are written into the awards to deal with downturns, unforeseen circumstances and times of financial hardships, that is why they are included in agreements. If every time one of the mentioned occurred and Qantas ran to FW the question would have to be asked why do you continually agree to these provisions that you are a signatory to if you have no intentions of following them? Qantas in the past has followed the reduction in numbers process over the last 15 years but we continue to see many still jumping at shadows and screaming from the roof tops that the world will cave in and we are all screwed, this hasn't happened. In the grand scheme of things a RIN is not expensive, we have over 30,000 people employed in Qantas on various pay scales and conditions so for about 100 pilots to be absorbed throughout the network isn't the great financial burden that we are convincing ourselves it is. From what I've heard I certainly do not believe the company will go rouge but I do believe there will be tough times for all of us, things are certainly not going to happen as fast as we would like, flexible working arrangements will be required for the interim and there probably will be a few that have flown their last sectors for QF. But the intentions of the award will be followed.

Keep well.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Consider the cost of redundancy payments for crew with 20, 30, 40 years of service and then allowing them to return to work, with the associated training costs; compared to a RIN and trickle down training costs; and compare that too to keeping people stood down.

[dr dre]

In the grand scheme of things a RIN is not expensive, we have over 30,000 people employed in Qantas on various pay scales and conditions so for about 100 pilots to be absorbed throughout the network isn't the great financial burden that we are convincing ourselves it is.

There’s probably only 100-150 ish 747 pilots remaining anyway. From what I’m led to believe a lot of them were planning on retiring when the fleet retired so they were going anyway. Add to that the retirements that probably would’ve been occurring on other fleets in the next 12 months and that’ll sort out the remaining 747 numbers. Don’t forget the 150 pilots who won’t be recruited into mainline to replace those retiring 747 (and other) pilots over the next 12 months are sort of job losses in a way.

If there is a permanent reduction in any other fleets (not just shorter term stand downs) then there’ll be the need to talk of surpluses, but it doesn’t look like they’re proceeding on that path from anything which has been said at the moment.

[normanton]

We need to take our pilot hat off, and put on a company hat.

What would you do to reduce pilot costs to 0 while there is no flying?

[Green.Dot]

My pilot hat has been off for a while now mate!

good riddance to that white thing!

[Lookleft]

We need to take our pilot hat off, and put on a company hat.

I don't have a pilot hat but when those wearing the company hats have an idea of what those wearing the pilot hats do for the company then there can be a swap.

[neville_nobody]

We need to take our pilot hat off, and put on a company hat. What would you do to reduce pilot costs to 0 while there is no flying?

Bizarre question because if you are stood down there is nothing you can do as you are not obligated to do anything and you are not being paid!! Unless of course you want to lead by example and resign that might help.

[normanton]

Bizarre question because if you are stood down there is nothing you can do as you are not obligated to do anything and you are not being paid!! Unless of course you want to lead by example and resign that might help.
You are still accruing sick leave / annual leave. Tino said he has that in his sights.

Why don't you answer the question neville? Don't like the answer?

[ExtraShot]

There’s probably only 100-150 ish 747 pilots remaining anyway. From what I’m led to believe a lot of them were planning on retiring when the fleet retired so they were going anyway. Add to that the retirements that probably would’ve been occurring on other fleets in the next 12 months and that’ll sort out the remaining 747 numbers. Don’t forget the 150 pilots who won’t be recruited into mainline to replace those retiring 747 (and other) pilots over the next 12 months are sort of job losses in a way.

If there is a permanent reduction in any other fleets (not just shorter term stand downs) then there’ll be the need to talk of surpluses, but it doesn’t look like they’re proceeding on that path from anything which has been said at the moment.


Yeah, I would have imagined any genuine surplus from the 747 would have been about that number (100-150, plus the same yet to be recruited to replace them, so roughly 300 in total). If 100 or so make the decision or some are offered some kind of VR, then provided we don’t have another catastrophe the numbers should be about right.

The twin engined fleets look look like being the way forward for a while, so you’d have to say they’d want those numbers to be maintained for a ramp up over the next 12 months or so.

That’d be a little bit of a relief to those on the bottom of the list anyway.

[Blueskymine]

Finally some reason on here.

I’d be highly surprised if QF make ANY pilot CR. Maybe some early retirements and VR. A small RIN from the 747. That’s about the extent of it.

Once the borders open watch it take off quicker than anyone expected and life will go on.

Remember there’s 3 x new 787s waiting to be crewed and parked up. They’ll be busy soon.

[C441]

Whilst there are some close to 65/retirement on the 744, many Captains are younger (and senior) than/to me and I'm not yet 60.
At some point the three or four (down)training courses that result from each RIN'ed pilot or paying for additional F/Os and maybe even Captains not required in rank, will be a greater cost than a VR.
Compulsory redundancies off the bottom will not change that.

"We need to take our pilot hat off, and put on a company hat."
Normanton, some would suggest you hadn't removed your Company hat since the commencement of the EA10 discussion! :)

[normanton]

So why do pilot costs have to be 0??
Because that is what Tino said in the webinar. That is the "flexibility" he is looking for. Doesn't mean I agree with it.


Normanton, some would suggest you hadn't removed your Company hat since the commencement of the EA10 discussion! :)
Ahh well I guess 80 odd % of pilots agreed with me enough to vote yes. Shall they all remove their company hat too?

Love it :D

[neville_nobody]

You are still accruing sick leave / annual leave. Tino said he has that in his sights. Why don't you answer the question neville? Don't like the answer?

I am aware of that and you can't refuse it as it is a requirement under law. It would take a court case or some legal maneuvering with the government to have it waivered. It would also set a precedent that may not be appreciated by the government or other unions and could have other unintended consequences.

It is a bit of a long shot, but maybe they're getting desperate and running out of options.

[Slezy9]

Finally some reason on here.

Once the borders open watch it take off quicker than anyone expected and life will go on.

Remember there’s 3 x new 787s waiting to be crewed and parked up. They’ll be busy soon.

Do you think borders will open anytime soon? Other than the "Tasman Bubble" I just can't see it happening in the near future? Are you aware that at the moment you need permission to leave the country as an Australian Citizen?

Leaving Australia (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia)

If you are an Australian citizen or a permanent resident you cannot leave Australia due to COVID-19 restrictions unless you have an exemption.

[crosscutter]

Let’s say pilots agreed to waive leave accrual whilst stood down...kicks the can down the road and saves 150 jobs just like that. Zero cost to the company whilst pilots do the lifting. Company win, pilots ‘do the right thing’. Sounds like continuation of EBA season.

lost leave should be repaid in 24months. Then it’s a non current liability.

[Wingspar]

I love it!
Qantas never cease to surprise me.
Even being stood down with no pay, sick leave etc they’re still looking for efficiencies!
Classic!

[C441]

Let’s say pilots agreed to waive leave accrual whilst stood down...kicks the can down the road and saves 150 jobs just like that. Zero cost to the company whilst pilots do the lifting. Company win, pilots ‘do the right thing’.
Try telling that to the Pilots who have little or no leave left now and are living off Jobkeeper. At least when Jobkeeper ceases (possibly/probably) at the end of September they'll have another few weeks of base pay income and can rely on having a further week of base pay for every 60 days they're stood-down after that. Some of those Pilots are conceivably looking at another 12 to 18 months of stand-down.

Sure, they can look at other income sources but after September it would be reasonable to assume that some businesses will fail and the job-seeker market will grow.

[Iron Bar]

All the more reason to get out there and find another income now. It’s a big reality check, but the days of LH gravy are going to pause for a bit.

[ozbiggles]

For those holding out hope of the international flood gates opening the Federal government has just said no more funding for international flights and both Qantas and Virgin have canceled all international passengers flights. (Sydney Morning Herald Sunday)
Winter is still coming and I don’t see Aus or NZ opening up international borders to go back to square one other than to each other and maybe the Pacific islands. Once the VA outcome is better understood and how long jobseeker will last I think the HR surgeons will know just how deep to cut. They won’t care if they go to hard as there will be plenty out there willing to take any spots on offer. Remember only a few months ago the talk was about the ULH conditions and they won that before the virus.Even Holdor had to let go in the end.

[SandyPalms]

All the more reason to get out there and find another income now. It’s a big reality check, but the days of LH gravy are going to pause for a bit.

This is the advise we all need to listen to. This is going to suck for a long time to come. Find some other way to feed yourself and your family, and forget about returning to Qantas in the near future. If it gets better quick, that’s awesome, but I think we all know that’s not going to happen, at least not for LH. Qantas will do everything in their power to stop paying you anything, AL/LSL, redundancy, RIN, whatever, it’s a business and will do what it can. But remember, it’s not personal. You can take that to the bank.

[dr dre]

Try telling that to the Pilots who have little or no leave left now and are living off Jobkeeper. At least when Jobkeeper ceases (possibly/probably) at the end of September they'll have another few weeks of base pay income and can rely on having a further week of base pay for every 60 days they're stood-down after that. Some of those Pilots are conceivably looking at another 12 to 18 months of stand-down.

Sure, they can look at other income sources but after September it would be reasonable to assume that some businesses will fail and the job-seeker market will grow.

Those pilots could be made eligible for JobSeeker (not keeper), and that would give them at least a basic income.

That would probably be better than 1/8th of their base income (1 week per 60 days) in the form of leave.

As to what to do beyond that? Well that’ll have to be up to those stood down pilots themselves. Some are looking at temporarily re-skilling, looking at running their own small businesses, accepting positions of even unskilled labour if it’s available, modifying their lifestyle to suit.

Yes it’s a reduction in pay and lifestyle from what they were used to in the past. I don’t really have any words of encouragement beyond that. Nowhere in any society is there a job on a 747 Captain’s wage that you can easily walk into with no prior skills or experience.

If there is a word of encouragement, Aviation will return. The Boeing forecast was for 600,000 new pilots over the next 20 years, no doubt it’ll be decreased somewhat but it will still be a huge number. Developing economies are expanding and modernising, necessitating more aviation. The pandemic will subside, in a year or so (or even earlier if a second wave does not appear). Management will want an airline roughly as big as it was at the start of the year in 2022/23 I presume. It is good that pilots will be able to return back to their original positions on what are still good terms and conditions after that period of stand down, rather than being made redundant and having to find another long term job from scratch

[Section28- BE]

Link/Reference here: https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp....html#comments (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-and-virgin-australia-suspend-remaining-international-flights-20200608-p550jl.html#comments)

Extract here:Qantas and Virgin Australia suspend remaining international flights
By Patrick Hatch (https://www.smh.com.au/by/patrick-hatch-hvf90)

June 8, 2020 — 3.45pm

Qantas and Virgin Australia have regrounded their remaining international passenger operations after government funding for the handful of overseas routes they were flying came to an end.

The Morrison government says it is reviewing whether it needs to fund further flights to get Australians home from abroad as some overseas airlines resume flying here.

Qantas and Virgin will again suspend their international passenger operations.

Under the government program, Qantas was flying a twice weekly London-Perth-Melbourne return service and a weekly Los Angeles-Melbourne service, the last of which landed on Monday morning.

Meanwhile Virgin - which is in voluntary administration seeking new owners (https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p54zix) - was flying a weekly Los Angeles-Brisbane service which ended Sunday.

Both airlines confirmed on Monday they had no further international passenger services scheduled following the end of the government scheme, with aircraft to be grounded and crews working the flights stood down.

A spokeswoman for the Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Michael McCormack said the scheme with Qantas and Virgin was established to get Australians home as soon as possible amid the pandemic.

"The government is reviewing the program noting there are now alternative commercial flight options available from London and Los Angeles," she said.

The government also has previously arranged for ad hoc repatriation flights from Peru, Argentina, South Africa and India.

Government to extend financial backing for domestic flights (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/government-to-extend-financial-backing-for-domestic-flights-20200606-p5505l.html)

Qantas will continue to fly some international freight flights and said it was ready to fly any further repatriation flights for the government as needed.

A Qantas spokesman said the airline was "proud to have helped thousands of Australians return home as well as taking foreign nationals back in the other direction".

Over the weekend Mr McCormack announced the government will extend the underwriting over a minimum number of domestic and regional flights operated (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/government-to-extend-financial-backing-for-domestic-flights-20200606-p5505l.html) by Qantas, Virgin and Regional Express.

The end of Qantas and Virgin’s Los Angeles flights leaves United Airlines’ daily Sydney-San Francisco service as the only direct passenger air link between Australia and the United States.

Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways have resumed regular flights connecting Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth to the UK, Europe, Middle East and Asia via their Gulf hubs, while Air New Zealand is operating some trans-Tasman flights and Cathay Pacific is flying to Hong Kong.

There is a $165m plan for Qantas and Virgin to resume domestic routes.

Under current border restrictions, only Australian citizens, residents and immediate family members can travel to Australia and must go into quarantine for 14 days on arrival.

Australians have been banned from leaving the the country since March 25 unless they receive an exemption because their travel relates to work combating the COVID-19 pandemic, is in an essential industry, is for medical treatment or on compassionate or humanitarian grounds.

Patrick Hatch (https://www.smh.com.au/by/patrick-hatch-hvf90)
Business reporter at The Age and Sydney Morning Herald.

Rgds
S28- BE

[ozbiggles]

Good news is Rex will get more money! Maybe they can go for a 12 jet operation?

[Section28- BE]

Good news is Rex will get more money! Maybe they can go for a 12 jet operation?

Hmmmm- Should 12x be, 'enough'...............???? ring 'Sharpie' and see/find out!!!!! (apparently).

Rgds
S28

[blubak]

I love it!
Qantas never cease to surprise me.
Even being stood down with no pay, sick leave etc they’re still looking for efficiencies!
Classic!
Time for effeciencies to start right at the top.
Take a look at the weekly town halls or whatever yuppie name they decide to call them,add up the yearly income of the 10 or 12 that sit around that table thanking each other for answering questions & continually insisting they are doing such a good job.
Not once have they mentioned that the company doesnt need to make record profits after flying starts again,there are many businesses out there just happy to be open again & probably breaking even but as far as these hi flyers are concerned that is not near good enough.

[krismiler]

Singapore Airlines are increasing the number of destinations they operate to and will cover most Australian capital cities in the near future,as well as a skeleton international network. Changi airport is now allowing transits, so anyone stuck overseas can get home. The flights aren't profitable and are operated to maintain essential links between Singapore and the rest of the world, with cargo and mail being the main focus.

[Wingspar]

Time for effeciencies to start right at the top.
Take a look at the weekly town halls or whatever yuppie name they decide to call them,add up the yearly income of the 10 or 12 that sit around that table thanking each other for answering questions & continually insisting they are doing such a good job.
Not once have they mentioned that the company doesnt need to make record profits after flying starts again,there are many businesses out there just happy to be open again & probably breaking even but as far as these hi flyers are concerned that is not near good enough.

You’d think just clearing the leave off the books would be considered acceptable?
Always wanting, wanting, wanting....!

[Half Baked]

Hey............all you QF guys that hate you're management team so much; why not ask your VA and TT colleagues how it's working out for them! I'd wager that every one of them would love to trade places with you guys. Just a hunch but I reckon I may be right!

Nobody here has any justifiable reason to flame QF management when you take a step back, take a holistic look at their financial position and consider that they can still survive in this environment as has been stated, deep into the second half of FY2021. You all should be very grateful of the strong financial position the Company is in. It's not by good luck, it's by very clever and sound business management.

Youre very fortunate that Il Deuce wasn't afforded the top gong, for there by the grace of god go you!

As bitter pill as this may be for some of you to swallow, QF has one of the sharpest management teams in global aviation. It's hard to argue with facts.

[Ragnor]

Hey I’m very happy with the QF group management and even AJ, I think they’re doing a great job. I’m not worried about redundancy long term stand down.

but you’re very correct half baked ppl get upset over the little things with management.

[crosscutter]

Meanwhile in HK, the govt has essentially bought Cathay. $30B recapitalisation (loan and shareholding ). Certainly doesn’t happen in this part of the world...oh unless you’re Rex.

[ozbiggles]

I think if it came down to the wire the Feds would bail out Qantas but VA would have to be extinct and the rat up against the wall with no options. Qantas still have a few rounds in the chamber and with jobkeeper and the vast majority of government funding under the government scheme for flying compared to VA they have time, As has been mentioned before once the VA outcome is known so to will be the size of the cuts required. I don’t think you can go past AirNZ for a good litmus test of the future.

[Wingspar]

Hey............all you QF guys that hate you're management team so much; why not ask your VA and TT colleagues how it's working out for them! I'd wager that every one of them would love to trade places with you guys. Just a hunch but I reckon I may be right!

Nobody here has any justifiable reason to flame QF management when you take a step back, take a holistic look at their financial position and consider that they can still survive in this environment as has been stated, deep into the second half of FY2021. You all should be very grateful of the strong financial position the Company is in. It's not by good luck, it's by very clever and sound business management.

Youre very fortunately that Il Deuce wasn't afforded the top gong, for there by the grace of god go you!

As bitter pill as this may be for some of you to swallow, QF has one of the sharpest management teams in global aviation. It's hard to argue with facts.

Half baked, it didn’t need this crisis for both the pilots and management to dislike each other.
Its been going on since Pontius was a pilate!
Nevertheless I agree with you and my glass is now half full.

[Going Boeing]

I'm sorry Half Baked and others, Joyce is not the Messiah.

He's still a narcissistic bully and the ONLY reason that Qantas is in a strong financial position is that he has been contracting the airline to maximise share value, of which he has a massive number. Qantas has far fewer aircraft and flys a lot less routes than when he took over. It's only through his greed that has got the airline into a strong financial position to weather this crisis, lucky timing now happens to make him look good.

[slats11]

This is one of the strangest virus outbreaks. It is very strange clinically. It is also very strange epidemiologically. There has been a lot to learn, and much remains unknown.

However, it increasingly appears we don't need 60-70% of the population to be infected / immune to develop herd immunity and for the pandemic to burn out. All over the world, we are not seeing a significant 2nd wave as social restrictions are relaxed. Several European countries (e.g. Austria) have now relaxed long enough and have sufficient public health capability that they should be seeing a 2nd wave if it was there.

After several weeks of relaxing and colder weather, cases in Australia have not increased. Despite a lot of testing.

This figure of 60-70% was a core assumption from early days. This figure underpinned much modelling which has influenced government policy.

No country has close to 60% (NY city may have 25%, maybe).

We don't know why we are seeing this striking disconnect between theory and reality. More recent and more sensitive antibody tests suggest it may relate to prior coronavirus infection (there is a whole family of coronaviruses , and they are a relatively common cause of the common cold). So while we have not been exposed to this coronavirus before, many of us have been exposed to other coronaviruses which may be "close enough" to confer immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ation-immunity (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/immunological-dark-matter-does-it-exist-coronavirus-population-immunity)

So...., we may be significantly closer to the end than we think.

The challenge may be matching supply to the new demand. I suspect there will be much less passenger traffic to/from China.

[Green.Dot]

I'm sorry Half Baked and others, Joyce is not the Messiah.

He's still a narcissistic bully and the ONLY reason that Qantas is in a strong financial position is that he has been contracting the airline to maximise share value, of which he has a massive number. Qantas has far fewer aircraft and flys a lot less routes than when he took over. It's only through his greed that has got the airline into a strong financial position to weather this crisis, lucky timing now happens to make him look good.

I certainly was critical of QF for not buying a lot more newer generation aircraft in the past, and still would be if it wasn’t for COVID. Amazingly though it is this inaction that has put them in a better position. The timing of the 747 planned retirement couldn’t have been much better and just imagine the additional pain the company would be in if a large fleet of 350s were locked in pre COVID!

[ACMS]

I certainly was critical of QF for not buying a lot more newer generation aircraft in the past, and still would be if it wasn’t for COVID. Amazingly though it is this inaction that has put them in a better position. The timing of the 747 planned retirement couldn’t have been much better and just imagine the additional pain the company would be in if a large fleet of 350s were locked in pre COVID!

yeah it would be terrible having the Worlds most efficient fleet wouldn’t it.....almost make them as unlucky as CX....:rolleyes:

[DirectAnywhere]

yeah it would be terrible having the Worlds most efficient fleet wouldn’t it.....almost make them as unlucky as CX....:rolleyes:

All aeroplanes are equally efficient if they’re parked.

As an airline I’d much rather have a bunch of old, wholly owned aeroplanes right now than a highly leveraged or leased fuel efficient fleet burning no fuel but lots of cash.

[dontgive2FACs]

I have had a few friends head to QF in the last year. Would anyone have an idea; of the junior most 300 on seniority list, how many would be Long Haul / SO’s please?

[mustafagander]

I have had a few friends head to QF in the last year. Would anyone have an idea; of the junior most 300 on seniority list, how many would be Long Haul / SO’s please?

Long haul S/O is generally entry level.

[Fujiroll76]

I have had a few friends head to QF in the last year. Would anyone have an idea; of the junior most 300 on seniority list, how many would be Long Haul / SO’s please?

Since the doors opened in 2016 - QF has hired 450-500 pilots.

I’d say at least 350 would be LH

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

I have had a few friends head to QF in the last year. Would anyone have an idea; of the junior most 300 on seniority list, how many would be Long Haul / SO’s please?

Not sure about right now, but when the seniority list was last released in July’19, about 85% of the most junior 300 were LH SOs.

[dr dre]

I have had a few friends head to QF in the last year. Would anyone have an idea; of the junior most 300 on seniority list, how many would be Long Haul / SO’s please?

The majority would be, along with a decent number of 73 FO's. If it's any consolation almost all of those junior SO's would be either 330 or 78, so they'll be back up and running first when things turn around.

[SandyPalms]

Webinar called for tomorrow. They only seem to have them when something has been announced. Any rumours from today’s meeting?

[Ragnor]

One was always planned for tomorrow the email came out Monday

[dr dre]

Webinar called for tomorrow. They only seem to have them when something has been announced. Any rumours from today’s meeting?

Nothing unusual, webinars have been held once per week or more since this all started.

[ozbiggles]

Webinars shouldn’t scare you, announcements to the asx should (no there hasn’t been one announced today).

[dragon man]

Rumour of 5000 jobs to be cut - announcement before the end of June.


I would say that’s highly likely.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Webinars shouldn’t scare you, announcements to the asx should (no there hasn’t been one announced today).
Bingo. You can include the rumours in this forum among the things that shouldn’t scare you.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Webinar called for tomorrow. They only seem to have them when something has been announced. Any rumours from today’s meeting?
Rubbish. They’ve been held almost weekly. With the same questions asked and dodged over and over.

[Ollie Onion]

Rumour of 5000 jobs to be cut - announcement before the end of June.
to be honest, in a company of 30,000 employees an initial target of 5,000 is not as bad as it could be in current circumstances. Many will be saved by consultation and efficiencies. Yes, I am potentially one of the jobs on the line but I think anyone suggesting Qantas will come through this without redundancies need to be a bit more realistic. It seems that Airlines across the world are suggesting 30% headcount reductions when their main business is international ops. So 15-20% for Qantas group with its domestic ops may be pretty close to the mark. Goodluck everyone.

[ozbiggles]

Legend has it that posters on pprune using their ‘first’ post to shock and awe generally work in sewage farms. If said person has the real info then they have just released market sensitive information which comes with a hefty fine.

[dr dre]

to be honest, in a company of 30,000 employees an initial target of 5,000 is not as bad as it could be in current circumstances. Many will be saved by consultation and efficiencies.

In 2014 it was a very similar number. 30,000 employees were reduced down to 25,000. This was mostly in non-operational back office roles. It was only a small number of pilots who took VR. But no CR was even close to being needed.

This time if the numbers are similar I’d imagine the surplus of pilots would probably be taken care of with expected upcoming retirements and the existing stand down arrangements. But obviously if there is no international flying for a while and no 4 engined flying for a little longer than that there’s going to be an excess in a lot of other roles that don’t require the long lead in training times pilots need. There’ll probably be a cut in international cabin crew, along with other roles supporting international. The need to find efficiencies in hard economic times means a lot of middle management positions will go.

[ozbiggles]

So Qantas will keep all its pilots while the rest of the worlds airlines can’t/don’t keep theirs. I’d like to see that, I really would. But It’s not going to happen. But I guess AirNZ parking up its 777 fleet in the desert isn’t enough of a hint. 2014 was a relatively predictable economic cyclic thing. This isn’t that.

[dr dre]

So Qantas will keep all its pilots while the rest of the worlds airlines can’t/don’t keep theirs. I’d like to see that, I really would. But It’s not going to happen. But I guess AirNZ parking up its 777 fleet in the desert isn’t enough of a hint. 2014 was a relatively predictable economic cyclic thing. This isn’t that.

The key difference between Australian and New Zealand IR law is that Australia has provisions for unpaid stand downs, NZ doesn’t. In the US they have a sort of similar thing called furlough.

[JPJP]

The key difference between Australian and New Zealand IR law is that Australia has provisions for unpaid stand downs, NZ doesn’t. In the US they have a sort of similar thing called furlough.

No. A furlough means you have been made redundant. You have no job, and no connection to your previous company, other than the right of return in seniority order. If and when the company requires more pilots.

Thankfully none of the majors in the U.S have enacted the abhorrent actions of Qantas management. Pilots are being paid, Early retirement and long term paid leaves are being offered. The extent and scope are company dependent.

means a lot of middle management positions will go.

Do you think they’ll keep you ? Or will you be ‘made efficient’ ?

[Green.Dot]

Thankfully none of the majors in the U.S have enacted the abhorrent actions of Qantas management. Pilots are being paid,


You people won’t stop will you. Im not sticking up for management but don’t you suspect if pilots were getting a full wage then QF would already be an Air NZ with a third of its pilots SACKED? I’ll take my JobKeeper in the meantime with a long term view of going back- hopefully...

there seem to be a lot of people who are still “f$&k the company at all costs” yeah that’s a great plan in the COVID world. Sadly you won’t be going back to your 550k Quad Skipper wage and if you think you are, you are delusional 🙄

[Australopithecus]

The US airlines are constrained by their government aid packages that prohibit furloughs until October. After that though most industry observers are expecting wholesale lay-offs and downgrades. Seniority systems in North America require LIFO and open bidding for every position which of course causes a training cascade. Those obligations are written into contracts that did not anticipate a pandemic so there may be airlines that seek relief in the courts including Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see our government extend job keeper for the airline and tourism sectors.

[JPJP]

You people won’t stop will you.


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/258x200/00844b27_54d4_4b38_a8f9_8758551fdded_8fb7ea0a6880f1f1870ae6b cbb7987c52fbcc84c.gif


Im not sticking up for management but don’t you suspect if pilots were getting a full wage then QF would already be an Air NZ with a third of its pilots SACKED?

Uhhhh ? A third of Air NZ pilots have been sacked ? No.

I’ll take my JobKeeper.

Enjoy. Because you know Alan won’t use any of the companies profits to pay employees in the hard times. That money is used to pay himself, and for stock buy backs (pay himself again). ‘No work to do, so no sick pay’- What a perverse, disgusting way to treat employees.

Below is an example of not immediately throwing everyone under the bus, also known as ‘stand down’ (at Qantas). Still paying employees and still looking after each other.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/2020/06/10/with-a-strong-balance-sheet-and-finally-the-737-max-southwest-is-ready-to-clobber-rival-airlines/

[JPJP]

The US airlines are constrained by their government aid packages that prohibit furloughs until October. After that though most industry observers are expecting wholesale lay-offs and downgrades. Seniority systems in North America require LIFO and open bidding for every position which of course causes a training cascade. Those obligations are written into contracts that did not anticipate a pandemic so there may be airlines that seek relief in the courts including Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see our government extend job keeper for the airline and tourism sectors.

Most of that is fairly accurate. However, it would depend on the airline - A large single fleet airline can furlough with almost zero training churn and very little cost. United and Southwest being examples of massive churn vs. none.

Hopefully the paid leaves and early paid retirement will take care of the flex. Although, if an airlines management decides to use this as an opportunity to slash and burn (British Airways) then anything’s possible. It’ll depend on culture, money and the level of sociopathy at the top. Add the latter, and an Irishman; then it may be ugly. Good luck to BA and Qantas :E

[MickG0105]

No. A furlough means you have been made redundant. You have no job, and no connection to your previous company, other than the right of return in seniority order.
That's complete and utter nonsense. Furloughs in the US under the Fair Labor Standards Act is essentially the same thing as stand-downs in Australia under the Fair Work Act. You are most assuredly not made redundant when you are furloughed.

​​​​​https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/70-flsa-furloughs

Uhhhh ? A third of Air NZ pilots have been sacked ? No.
Uhhhh? Yes.
Air New Zealand announces 3500 job losses due to Covid-19 pandemic
WED, MAY 20 • SOURCE: 1 NEWS
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/air-new-zealand-announces-3500-job-losses-due-covid-19-pandemic

Air New Zealand are sacking 3500 employees out of a workforce of about 10,500 - that's a third. Do you think they're getting rid of everyone other than pilots?

[Australopithecus]

Once again...the US airlines cannot stand down employees until October. That was a fundamental condition of the aid they got in April. The rest of that Forbes puff piece is at complete odds with reality. At least until there is widespread inoculation the US isn’t going to see returns to 2019 flying. That said, I have always been an admirer of Southwest's relationship with their employees.

[Arctaurus]

Just look at what's happening in the middle east carriers at the moment - large numbers of pilots who thought they had jobs for life, are now out of work.

Australia can't be immune from this. A lot will hinge on how jobkeeper is treated after September.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Just look at what's happening in the middle east carriers at the moment - large numbers of pilots who thought they had jobs for life, are now out of work.

Australia can't be immune from this. A lot will hinge on how jobkeeper is treated after September.

how does job keeper effect this?

Don’t forget, QF group announced the stand downs (march 19th) before jobkeeper was announced by the government (March 30th).

After September, staff could simply remain stood down with no government subsidy, as was the initial intent of the stand downs.

However, there seems to be a good chance Jobkeeper will be extended for aviation beyond September, as the government moves towards a more industry selective approach to the scheme.

[Arctaurus]

However, there seems to be a good chance Jobkeeper will be extended for aviation beyond September, as the government moves towards a more industry selective approach to the scheme.

You've answered your own question. Might be wrong, but I would have thought airlines will be more likely to use stand down provisions rather than redundancies if jobkeeper stays for aviation.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

You've answered your own question. Might be wrong, but I would have thought airlines will be more likely to use stand down provisions rather than redundancies if jobkeeper stays for aviation.

not at all, re-read my first paragraph.

QF announced stand downs about 2 weeks before job keeper was announced by the government. I think they’ll quite happily leave workers with ‘no useful work’ as they say on stand down for 12-18 months if required regardless of Jobkeeper (long haul pilots).

Still much much cheaper than redundancies.

[ozbiggles]

I’m not so sure Jobkeeper will stay, again an unknown unknown. The government just took a lot of heat for taking it off the childcare workers...are they going to want to take the pain for us well to do pilots? I know the logic of the argument, but we are talking politics. The perception of taking money off Anna Lisa 19, struggling single mum of 2, childcare worker up against Capt Buck Rodgers 35 year veteran of flying with a million dollars of super is a fight they might not want.

My feeling is funnily enough the sooner we see the borders fall, the sooner Jobkeeper will be removed (not before September). As a taxpayer I get that, for my pilot allegiance I hope not. The governments response to VA has set the example for all business, they can’t bail one sector out without opening the floodgates.

JP, bloody funny GIF, well played.

[Blueskymine]

Jobkeeper will remain while government restrictions prevent certain industries from operating.

While your example of a captain who earns big dollars on jobkeeper is interesting, there’s plenty of single mums up the back who walk the aisles, checkin staff, rampies, office staff etc etc who need the help.

So while the borders are closed, it should remain for the travel industry.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

The governments response to VA has set the example for all business, they can’t bail one sector out without opening the floodgates.

On the contrary, the rhetoric from govt regarding Virgin is that they won’t bail out individual businesses and that financial support would be sector based. To quote Mr Frydenberg commenting on Virgin’s request for a bailout. “our focus has been is on providing (aviation) industry-wide support.”

With people returning to the office, the demand for childcare is increasing, hence that industry no longer needs a wage subsidy via jobkeeper. Attendance back to above 70% pre COVID levels according to Mathias Cormann

[ozbiggles]

Like I said, I know the logic but we are talking politics. I know Captain Buck doesn’t represent the vast majority of people in the industry. Who do you think the media and opposition parties will use as their example to pander to their demographic?

[Fujiroll76]

My 2 cents worth

Its clear QF are in discussions with AIPA on how they can manage a potential excess of crew moving forward. Every department and union involved within QF would be doing the exact same.

In the pilot world we are unique in the way you can’t just hire someone off the street Day 1 and start your role Day 2....unlike many middle management roles within QCC who still trump our onload priority...that’s for another day.

A recruitment stream can take from application to checked to line of approx 12 months. QF will be taking this into account when the “R” word gets thrown around.

People think they know what will happen in 12,24,36 months but in reality they can’t. This would worry QF when it comes to having / not having the flexibility that they currently have standing people up and within a few days currency is achieved and flying the line.

Now it’s no secret it’s a $$ game.

As I read on here previously. Every stood down pilot is effectively taking an 86% pay cut when you factor in AL accrual. I’m sure the company will abuse this and will be in discussions with AIPA to have this removed from the stand down provisions and effectively coasting the company $0 but still having the flexibility it currently has. A win win for QF

Retirements are set to skyrocket over the next 5 years, factor in those who will settle for early retirement in lieu of having to train onto a new fleet and those who are looking at an extended stand down and the super implications.

LWOP is already being offered and taken by a selected few. 12 months for SH and 24 months for LH has been granted.

My opinion is that the 747 RIN will occur later in the year. Training will be delayed until a time that allows for demand to reach an adequate level for training sectors.

A combination of LWOP, VR (380), Agreed Flexi line arrangements (Job share) to stand up as many as possible. This will all come after Sept as JK takes up the slack for the time being.

once JK concludes the above will be implemented with those stood down to agree to no AL accrual.

380 to be stood down indefinitely as the EA permits - No training allocations for the foreseeable future.

It’s easy to shave the bottom 300-400 pilots but carrying a small surplus will be the only way forward. Let alone having to recruit again once things pick up.

Anyway that’s my thoughts.

Have we heard what’s happening to the CEO’s pay after June 30???? Hmmm

AJ pay alone last year would cover the the entire SO 787 fleet..go figure.

Fuji

[dragon man]

The only thing I would add to that is VR for anyone over 60 regardless of fleet.

[Fujiroll76]

The only thing I would add to that is VR for anyone over 60 regardless of fleet.


I would agree - this would be a very smart move for the company moving forward over the next generation of pilots.

[JPJP]

That's complete and utter nonsense. Furloughs in the US under the Fair Labor Standards Act is essentially the same thing as stand-downs in Australia under the Fair Work Act. You are most assuredly not made redundant when you are furloughed.

​​​​​https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/70-flsa-furloughs



Fail. Airlines are governed under the RLA (Railway Labor Act). That web page you produced may as well have been a McDonalds menu. Give ALPA a call and quote the DOL page. Should be amusing. Research the NLRB in relation to labor law and the RLA.

Uhhhh? Yes.
Air New Zealand announces 3500 job losses due to Covid-19 pandemic
WED, MAY 20 • SOURCE: 1 NEWS
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/air-new-zealand-announces-3500-job-losses-due-covid-19-pandemic

Air New Zealand are sacking 3500 employees out of a workforce of about 10,500 - that's a third. Do you think they're getting rid of everyone other than pilots?

Ouff ! This is getting ugly to watch Mick. You stated that “a third of Air NZ pilots have been sacked”. Nothing of the sort has happened. Nor did your TV NZ webpage link mention it. You could always ask an Air NZ pilot eh ? No ? Thought not.

[Green.Dot]

Ouff ! This is getting ugly to watch Mick. You stated that “a third of Air NZ pilots have been sacked”. Nothing of the sort has happened. Nor did your TV NZ webpage link mention it. You could always ask an Air NZ pilot eh ? No ? Thought not.

Sorry I’ll take the hit, I said “a third of ANZ pilots have been sacked”. It’s closer to 25%

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/05/300-air-nz-pilots-made-redundant-hundreds-more-taking-30-percent-pay-cut.html

[MickG0105]

A furlough means you have been made redundant.
You can dress it up however you like but a pilot being furloughed in the US is most assuredly not the same as a pilot being made redundant in Australia. There is no obligation to rehire someone who has been made redundant. To the contrary, in Australia, there are specific measures that restrict the practice of rehiring employees that have been made redundant.

[ozbiggles]

I’m sure the 200 hundred Tiger pilots made redundant at Virgin would like to hear your take on not being re-employed after being made redundant...

[dr dre]

My opinion is that the 747 RIN will occur later in the year. Training will be delayed until a time that allows for demand to reach an adequate level for training sectors..

It’s easy to shave the bottom 300-400 pilots but carrying a small surplus will be the only way forward. Let alone having to recruit again once things pick up.




I agree with most of what you’ve written Fuji, good work.

I would say that in regards to a RIN there isn’t really anything specified anywhere that once a pilot is RIN’d to somewhere that their training has to begin within a specified time. Potentially a 747 pilot RIN’d to another fleet may be stood down waiting until all existing pilots from that fleet have been stood back up fully until their training commences.

I also wouldn’t say it’s “easy” to shave the bottom pilots off, almost all of the pilots at the bottom are on fleets that are going to be back up and running first so they will need replacements to be trained into their positions at a cost of money and time.

[ElZilcho]

Sorry I’ll take the hit, I said “a third of ANZ pilots have been sacked”. It’s closer to 25%

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/05/300-air-nz-pilots-made-redundant-hundreds-more-taking-30-percent-pay-cut.html

We went from a list with 1209 names to one with 851, so that’s about 30% however it’s a bit more complicated than that.

Of the 300 Redundancies, ~200 were operational and ~100 were Regional Pilots on reserved numbers. They’re still with the Regionals but had to be taken off the Jet list due to Last on First off.
We also have a decent number of Pilots over 65, mostly on LWOP (some flying the A320). They’ve all been given notional Airbus Commands but we’re yet to see how many take them.

The redundancies were also reduced by 91 due to us agreeing to a temporary pay cut and others voluntarily opting for LWOP or 50% for 12+ months.

So in total we’ve lost about 30% but I’d say the actual redundancies of Pilots on the Payroll was between 15 & 20%.

[MickG0105]

You stated that “a third of Air NZ pilots have been sacked”.
No, I did not.

Nothing of the sort has happened.
Between almost 300 and 387 Air New Zealand pilots have been made redundant. That's pretty close to vaguely resembling something of the sort. It's most assuredly not 'nothing of the sort'.

You could always ask an Air NZ pilot eh ? No ? Thought not.
Or you could check with NZALPA, eh ...
https://www.nzalpa.org.nz/Media-Centre/News/ArticleId/140/statement-from-the-new-zealand-air-line-pilots-association-nzalpa

Or the news, eh ...
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/416118/covid-19-300-air-new-zealand-pilots-lose-their-jobs
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121446383/air-nz-pilots-to-take-30-per-cent-pay-cut-300-lose-jobs

Or you could take ElZilcho's outline of events as posted above.
​​​​​​​

[MickG0105]

I’m sure the 200 hundred Tiger pilots made redundant at Virgin would like to hear your take on not being re-employed after being made redundant...
The only way that they could be re-employed by Tiger or Virgin is if they repay their redundancy payouts or sit on the sidelines for a defined period or are employed into an entirely different role. Nothing to stop them being employed by a different employer other than current market conditions.

[Keg]

I agree with most of what you’ve written Fuji, good work.

I would say that in regards to a RIN there isn’t really anything specified anywhere that once a pilot is RIN’d to somewhere that their training has to begin within a specified time. Potentially a 747 pilot RIN’d to another fleet may be stood down waiting until all existing pilots from that fleet have been stood back up fully until their training commences.

I disagree.

The nominal retirement date of the 747 fleet was March next year. The RIN process should be completed prior to 31 March (in fact prior to the end of February given the notice period required for new training courses).

When the 767 RIN occurred there were a number of pilots who waited 2-4 months for their new type course. They were not stood down due to ‘no useful work’ as the training bottleneck is not of their making. The same principle applies to 747 crew from 1 April next year onward. Now a senior 747 pilot may elect to displace to the A380. If there is no ‘useful flying’ (IE, any flying) on that fleet then I agree they remained stood down.

However, if they take redeployment (or displace) to a fleet that actually is doing some flying then they should NOT remain stood down. They’ve elected to displace under the rules in place to a fleet that actually has some ‘useful work’ so should be stood up to train and then fly. Once checked out they should rotate in with the rest of the crew who are doing whatever ‘useful work’ exists.

I’d hope AIPA would take a similar stance and argue as such as strenuously as possible.


I also wouldn’t say it’s “easy” to shave the bottom pilots off, almost all of the pilots at the bottom are on fleets that are going to be back up and running first so they will need replacements to be trained into their positions at a cost of money and time.

Actually, it’s far easier than many realise. Qantas could get rid of most S/Os on the 787 and A330 and heavy crew with Captains and F/Os for the next 12-18 months. The cost? CR only as you already have enough Captains and F/Os on those fleets to cover the reduced flying and even some of the ramp up. More expensive than S/Os? Yep? Short term pain compared to multiple RINs.

I know they don’t want to do that and I hope it doesn’t come to it but let’s not pretend that it is either difficult or expensive (in the scheme of things).

[ShandywithSugar]

Delete every JQ MoU number from the Mainline list and tell the market. Done.

[hotnhigh]

Any truth that Jetconnect will be operating the Tasman services for Qf first?
If so, I’d hope every politician of every persuasion was all over “the spirit of Australia” and what it means to Australians and the Australian tax payer in light of jobkeeper payments. :ugh:

[Ollie Onion]

Thats what they said at the webinar today. Paraphrasing, but along the lines of 'yes Jetconnect will be operating the Tasman' 'Groups who were previously carrying out work will likely get that work back as there is a potential increase in cost to try and transfer the work'.

[Ragnor]

Delete every JQ MoU number from the Mainline list and tell the market. Done.

Also Jetstar gets to delete every MOU number. I like it.

[hotnhigh]

They could save on cost by reducing the number of CEO’s for a start. Then offshore the ones left to NZ, jobkeeper and all.
it’s a remarkable state of affairs if Qantas deems it appropriate to receive government funding whilst individual workers that could work and currently subsidised by jobkeeper, remain idle.
The current environment aviation finds itself in, isn’t one of profitability, it’s one of survivability. And I thought Qantas was supposed to be Australian.
yeah I know, we’ve been here before....

[ozbiggles]

Mick, once again you are wrong and dare I say F.O.S.
it is people like you that give the internet a bad name. Do 30 seconds worth of research and correct your post so those less inclined to check the facts Don’t believe the crap you post.

[Ollie Onion]

They could save on cost by reducing the number of CEO’s for a start. Then offshore the ones left to NZ, jobkeeper and all.
it’s a remarkable state of affairs if Qantas deems it appropriate to receive government funding whilst individual workers that could work and currently subsidised by jobkeeper, remain idle.
The current environment aviation finds itself in, isn’t one of profitability, it’s one of survivability. And I thought Qantas was supposed to be Australian.
yeah I know, we’ve been here before....

Well that is debatable, Qantas Mainline might be considered Australian but they own or part own a lot of businesses that are not considered Australian such as Fiji Airways, Jetstar NZ, Jetstar Japan, Jetstar Pacific etc. Let's not forget that Jetconnect pilots are also sitting at home crapping themselves about their jobs, I don't think it is unfair for the work that they were doing immediately before COVID to be returned to them in the first instance. With the current outlook, from a business point of you it is probably better to re-activate the lower cost area's of the operation. Yes it sucks, but let's face it, Qantas doesn't give a sh*t about you or me despite their platitudes.

[Overspeed1]

If they run the 74 RIN why would they need to heavy crew? Any training positions allocated would be kicked down the road until there’s flying available to facilitate so those crews stay stood down for a while.

Therefore any 787 or 330 Captains that are demoted can’t be FO trained and stay stood down anyway.

The FOs demoted to SO is easily achievable. A few Sims and the line training is only 1 observation sector so that’s not hard to find.

The 330 and 787 SOs are all at the bottom of the list so are obviously the ones who get made redundant. That would normally be an expensive exercise given the requirement for the period of notice and redundancy entitlement to be not less than 26 weeks but given we’re all stood down on no pay does that mean they only have to worry about purely the redundancy payout? Relatively inexpensive if that’s the case.

As for the cost of recruitment on the other side, doesn’t the ‘redundancy list’ kind of take care of that? It states a pilot on the list will be offered a position when available based on seniority

[Ollie Onion]

I have a good source in Air NZ training that said the way they are tackling it is deciding where the shortage of crew may be as the result of the redundancies, working out a down training schedule which resulted in 48 months of training required and then selecting the 40% of pilots who are required in the short term. Everyone else will have their training delayed until demand warrants them coming back on line, so 60% of the pilot moves are on hold for the medium term. I would think Qantas would be the same, carry out the training that is required to keep the operation going and leave everyone else on LWOP until needed regardless of seniority.

[Keg]

If they run the 74 RIN why would they need to heavy crew? Any training positions allocated would be kicked down the road until there’s flying available to facilitate so those crews stay stood down for a while.

I think this is directed at my post? Not 100% sure.

The two issues are separate. The RIN should be run regardless given the previously articulated time frame for the 747 farewell. If there is ‘useful flying’ on any of the other LH fleets (even if it’s 1/2 or 1/3 of the normal hours) then a RIN’d 747 crew member electing to go to that fleet should be stood up and trained. Deal with any surplus on that fleet once that is complete.

My ‘heavy crew’ comments were in relation to the alleged difficulty of getting rid of the bottom 300 crew (if that’s what was deemed surplus to requirements). I’m simply pointing out that resorting to heavy crewing makes it decidedly simple to still crew those aeroplanes on longer flights until the fleet flying hours get beyond about 2/3 of the previous flown hours. It’s certainly easier and cheaper than the domino effect of doing multiple RINs across multiple fleets as the crew all push downward. Redundancy payouts for 300 pilots is going to be circa $20 million.

The F/O demoted quickly and easily to S/O with a sim (it wouldn’t even take that realistically) isn’t quite as clear cut. That demoted F/O may choose to become a S/O on a different fleet- a massive training cost. Again, cheaper to heavy crew and not demote people.

I don’t think Qantas wants to go down the redundancy road though. They don’t want to spend $20 million only to re-employ those crew a year or two later. Much easier to come to an agreement with current crew as to how to manage our way through this.

[ozbiggles]

20 Million? That’s isn’t even a years salary for Joyce.

I think Qantas wouldn’t blink at a $100 Million. What did the shutdown cost all those years ago? I’m sure Joyce’s accountants could make it look good in the books whilst also writing it off as a tax loss and justify it as a bonus to the CEO for improving efficiency.

[dragon man]

$20 million might cover 300 SOs it won’t go any where near covering 300 Capt/FOs on 26 weeks via a VR if that’s what they choose.

[Keg]

That’s why I’d be surprised if there were widespread offers of VR to A380 crew.

The EA allows the company to tailor their VR offer to individual crew members. One pilot may be offered something different to someone else depending on their specific circumstances.

The 747 crew you’re least likely to get a return from if they do a conversion course post March next year are those who turn 65 in the 18 months after that time. These are the ones most likely to get a targeted VR. There are less of them than you’d think.

[cloudsurfng]

That’s why I’d be surprised if there were widespread offers of VR to A380 crew.

The EA allows the company to tailor their VR offer to individual crew members. One pilot may be offered something different to someone else depending on their specific circumstances.

The 747 crew you’re least likely to get a return from if they do a conversion course post March next year are those who turn 65 in the 18 months after that time. These are the ones most likely to get a targeted VR. There are less of them than you’d think.

Id leave those 747 crew out of it completely and assume they'd either give up, call it a day early or hit 65 before they can be trained.

[Callsign Please]

I think Qantas wouldn’t blink at a $100 Million.

They sure blinked at $90 million for a new sim centre. Based on some of the options given above, they’re still gonna need one soon.

[Beer Baron]

I disagree.

The nominal retirement date of the 747 fleet was March next year. The RIN process should be completed prior to 31 March (in fact prior to the end of February given the notice period required for new training courses).

When the 767 RIN occurred there were a number of pilots who waited 2-4 months for their new type course. They were not stood down due to ‘no useful work’ as the training bottleneck is not of their making. The same principle applies to 747 crew from 1 April next year onward. Now a senior 747 pilot may elect to displace to the A380. If there is no ‘useful flying’ (IE, any flying) on that fleet then I agree they remained stood down.

However, if they take redeployment (or displace) to a fleet that actually is doing some flying then they should NOT remain stood down. They’ve elected to displace under the rules in place to a fleet that actually has some ‘useful work’ so should be stood up to train and then fly. Once checked out they should rotate in with the rest of the crew who are doing whatever ‘useful work’ exists.

I’d hope AIPA would take a similar stance and argue as such as strenuously as possible.
The fact that the RIN operated that way previously is no guarantee it will do so now. These are vastly different times.

As you would know, the crew who were the last to be RIN’d off the 767 had no aircraft to fly for up to 4 months. They had training courses planned for a future date BUT they remained a 767 Capt’s or F/O’s until that course and received the pay and conditions applicable to that fleet despite the fact that there were no aircraft to fly.
By the same logic Qantas could easily determine that 744 crew were stood down before the RIN and will remain stood down after the RIN up until a training course is run. The allocation of a future training date need not interrupt one’s stand down.

I would certainly hope that is NOT the interpretation Qantas take but they have a long history of interpreting rules/laws to benefit the company and screw us. Let’s hope I’m proven wrong.

[nvfr]

Excuse my ignorance but what exactly is RIN

[nvfr]

Reduction In Numbers, a complex process to right size surpluses on fleet(s).
thanks for that

[Keg]

Id leave those 747 crew out of it completely and assume they'd either give up, call it a day early or hit 65 before they can be trained.

Well then you’ve got to pay them MGH. There is going to be ‘useful flying’ in long haul at some stage during that time frame. If you’re going to pay them MGH over a period of 18 months you could offer them 12 months MGH and with the redundancy tax rates they clear the same (or perhaps a bit more) money.

The fact that the RIN operated that way previously is no guarantee it will do so now. These are vastly different times.

As you would know, the crew who were the last to be RIN’d off the 767 had no aircraft to fly for up to 4 months. They had training courses planned for a future date BUT they remained a 767 Capt’s or F/O’s until that course and received the pay and conditions applicable to that fleet despite the fact that there were no aircraft to fly.

Yes, these are different times but a RIN is an agreed process with a set outcome as per the award. I’d reckon it’d be ‘bad faith’ to say that when the 747 is finished at the end of March that a crew member could remain stood down for an indeterminate time before starting their training course at a time of the company’s choosing. The number of Captains that will require re-training will be in the thirties. Under normal circumstances if they were all going to the same fleet that would be 3-4 months. F/O numbers are slightly higher than that and then there’s the S/Os. There is ‘useful work’, it’s their training course. That there is a bottleneck is not the fault of the individual crew member.

If there is training capacity then again the courses should be started fairly promptly post March next year.


I would certainly hope that is NOT the interpretation Qantas take but they have a long history of interpreting rules/laws to benefit the company and screw us. Let’s hope I’m proven wrong.

Agreed. I’d hope AIPA would argue against this fairly strenuously.

Telfer86, LHEA 15.10.3 under voluntary redundancy.


The Company may, at its discretion, offer voluntary redundancies prior to making pilots compulsorily redundant. Prior to final determination of the package to be offered, the Company will meet, as a minimum, its obligations pursuant to clause 9 to consult with the Association on details of the package and, in addition, provide the Association the opportunity to negotiate, in good faith, the package to be offered. The Association acknowledges that the package to be offered in the case of voluntary redundancies by the Company is ultimately at the Company's discretion.

(b) Additionally, the Company will have the right to identify which pilots or groups of pilots will be offered the opportunity to apply for voluntary redundancy and will have the final decision on which pilots are made voluntarily redundant.

[OnceBitten]

Redundancies would be as per the intergration agreement under the title Redundancy which is based on seniority, not long haul or short haul if it comes to this which I doubt.

[Blueskymine]

Redundancies would be as per the intergration agreement under the title Redundancy which is based on seniority, not long haul or short haul if it comes to this which I doubt.

Actually it’s A or Q list with two different provisions under two different EBAs.

So from me reading it a senior pilot in Longhaul can be made redundant over a junior pilot in shorthaul. Simply because you cannot displace someone under a different award.

It’d be like a Qantas pilot displacing a Jetstar pilot to CR.

Of course if guys want to complain about that, they were senior and could have gone to short haul.

Anyway it’s pie in the sky stuff. With stand down, jobkeeper and perhaps a few tweaks to entitlements during standown, I don’t think we will see a single Qantas pilot exit the business who doesn’t want to.

[cynphil]

With 3 787’s waiting to be delivered, managing the RIN for the 747 will be made very easy. The A380 is a different story! As per the awards, LH and SH are completely seperate when it comes to RIN’s.

[Wingspar]

At some stage they’re going to have to address the numbers on the 380.
RIN for sure but there should be a sizeable number of retirements that will help.
RIN is problematic no matter what the fleet so VR must be a consideration.
Having said that the 65 club can’t rely on 737 slots because there won’t be any for some time.

[OnceBitten]

Actually it’s A or Q list with two different provisions under two different EBAs.

So from me reading it a senior pilot in Longhaul can be made redundant over a junior pilot in shorthaul. Simply because you cannot displace someone under a different award.

It’d be like a Qantas pilot displacing a Jetstar pilot to CR.

Of course if guys want to complain about that, they were senior and could have gone to short haul.

Anyway it’s pie in the sky stuff. With stand down, jobkeeper and perhaps a few tweaks to entitlements during standown, I don’t think we will see a single Qantas pilot exit the business who doesn’t want to.
BSM, Read the Integration award 16 (e) this relates to redundancies across mainline and states "vacancies resulting from the re-shuffling of positions consequent upon retrenchment shall be filled in accordance with the provisions for filling vacancies set out in this award and other applicable awards/agreements". Basically meaning in the whole context of section 16 relating to redundancies for those A and Q pilots above the Y, and below the Y relates to all remaining Q pilots in seniority. Vacancies that are created by these provisions will be subsequently advertised to be filled in seniority order from the remaining pool of pilots. So redundancies across mainline are done in seniority and are not dependant on the Haul according to the IA.
I agree with you in regards to RINs and displacements that these do not apply across the Hauls but mainline redundancies do. I also agree with your sentiment that with standown, Jobkeeper and VRs we won't see a crew member depart that doesn't want to.

[Blueskymine]

BSM, Read the Integration award 16 (e) this relates to redundancies across mainline and states "vacancies resulting from the re-shuffling of positions consequent upon retrenchment shall be filled in accordance with the provisions for filling vacancies set out in this award and other applicable awards/agreements". Basically meaning in the whole context of section 16 relating to redundancies for those A and Q pilots above the Y, and below the Y relates to all remaining Q pilots in seniority. Vacancies that are created by these provisions will be subsequently advertised to be filled in seniority order from the remaining pool of pilots. So redundancies across mainline are done in seniority and are not dependant on the Haul according to the IA.
I agree with you in regards to RINs and displacements that these do not apply across the Hauls but mainline redundancies do. I also agree with your sentiment that with standown, Jobkeeper and VRs we won't see a crew member depart that doesn't want to.

16.D.iii trumps that though. If there are surplus Q pilots but not A pilots, Q pilots shall only be retrenched.

section E refers that if for instance a pilot is retrenched and that position becomes a consequential vacancy, It shall be filled in accordance with seniority. For instance if 10 787 SOs are made redundant, those positions if required will be filled from the top down. It doesn’t refer to jumping from long haul to short haul or vice versa.

I read it more as those positions are filled in order of seniority from those that are left, not the retrenchment list.

[Wingspar]

If it gets to Q and A pilots then it’s goodnight Irene!
Party’s over!

[Telfer86]

Well if what is stated above is true , then moving to SH straight after joining was a wise move

If you assume QF redundancy numbers similar % to AirNZ, BA - maybe 30% , but not quite the disaster level of Air Canada

then about 750 , that takes you back to LH hires circa 2005 to 2007 era doesn't it ?

You may as well wait for a CR as it is a much better deal in terms of quantity of payout & certainty of return

Why would you take a lesser value VR ?

[nvfr]

Any idea of what’s likely to happen at Jetstar

[Fujiroll76]

Any idea of what’s likely to happen at Jetstar

I would say domestic back to normal within 12 months.

the 787's would have the same question mark as the QF 380's....nothing anytime soon.

[Ollie Onion]

Domestic, Tasman and Pacific look to be positive for Jetstar OZ and NZ for a quick Ian recovery. 787 and international such as Bali look weak. No rumours of redundancies yet, they were undercrewed anyway and will likely manage things througH LWOP, continued stand down, part time etc.

[Bad Adventures]

Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China along with all of the Pacific will back open by the end of the year. The 787’s and 330’s will be busy again. Also you’d think QF will have around 80% of the domestic market.

[Anti Skid On]

Not if Victoria keeps having transmission

[ozbiggles]

You can think what you want but International travellers won’t be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments haven’t done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas don’t downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market won’t have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they won’t be taking now.

[flyingfrenchman]

BSM, Read the Integration award 16 (e) this relates to redundancies across mainline and states "vacancies resulting from the re-shuffling of positions consequent upon retrenchment shall be filled in accordance with the provisions for filling vacancies set out in this award and other applicable awards/agreements". Basically meaning in the whole context of section 16 relating to redundancies for those A and Q pilots above the Y, and below the Y relates to all remaining Q pilots in seniority. Vacancies that are created by these provisions will be subsequently advertised to be filled in seniority order from the remaining pool of pilots. So redundancies across mainline are done in seniority and are not dependant on the Haul according to the IA.
I agree with you in regards to RINs and displacements that these do not apply across the Hauls but mainline redundancies do. I also agree with your sentiment that with standown, Jobkeeper and VRs we won't see a crew member depart that doesn't want to.


It’s not talked about much but since the 767 RIN the firms opinion has been that SH/73 is quarantined from both RIN and CR. The outcome of any subsequent challenge to that is of course unknown. It is also worth remembering that opinion cuts both ways if there were to ever be an over supply domestically.

[Blueskymine]

You can think what you want but International travellers won’t be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments haven’t done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas don’t downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market won’t have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they won’t be taking now.

Except where there used to be 380s/747s, there will be 787s. Where there used to be 330s, there will be 737s. Where there used to be 737s, there will be 717s, where there used to be 717s, there will be Q400s etc etc.

Qantas has a lot of flexibility with its fleet, over say a giant A380/777 operator or the like.

So in reality, Qantas will have a similar network with similar frequencies to what it had before. It’ll just fly smaller aircraft.

[logansi]

You can think what you want but International travellers won’t be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments haven’t done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas don’t downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market won’t have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they won’t be taking now.

While I'm sure the reduced international visitors will impact domestic demand as well, it may be largely offset by an increase in domestic travel by Australians unable to travel overseas.
The best evidence we have right now is China where domestic flights are no up to 80% of pre-covid levels.

[Transition Layer]

Except where there used to be 380s/747s, there will be 787s. Where there used to be 330s, there will be 737s. Where there used to be 737s, there will be 717s, where there used to be 717s, there will be Q400s etc etc.

Qantas has a lot of flexibility with its fleet, over say a giant A380/777 operator or the like.

So in reality, Qantas will have a similar network with similar frequencies to what it had before. It’ll just fly smaller aircraft.

Yep spot on. 3 x week will be the new daily.

Large aircraft won’t be required unless of course these “travel bubbles” eventuate. I’m hypothesising here, but if say Thailand and Australia form a bubble, you may need a 380 running to Bangkok because the demand is centralised on a few specific approved countries and it’s the only place people can travel. Likewise Japan, Singapore etc. And then potentially use the 787 for long thin routes to countries in Europe like Austria and Germany.

QF obviously need to shift away from UK and US destinations, their traditional heartland. Might involve some loss making routes for a while but you can’t just sit on your hands forever (with aircraft sitting on the ground) and do nothing.

[crosscutter]

Qantas group profit drivers are domestic and QFF. Obviously international traffic feeds into domestic operations so I’m not trying to discredit the role of International. Qantas own most their fleet. They obviously have debt to service so there may be a balance where a bit of extra revenue is a good thing even if it is loss making. I suspect the scope for this is very small, and it’s far more likely the A380 operation will take another year off with their crews remaining stood down.

Jefferies Investment Bank have assumed QF wages bill next financial year will be over 50% down from FY19. They have assumed the government will be very slow opening international borders even once a vaccine is developed.

Leave accrual for 1500 long haul pilots whilst stood down cost the company about $30M/yr. That is the redundancy payout for more than 400 juniors.

There are tough decisions ahead. I’d like to believe no pilot who doesn’t want to leave the company will be forced to. It is becoming clear though that keeping the piloting family together is going to be dependent on our leadership.

[Potsie Weber]

You can think what you want but International travellers won’t be allowed back into the country without a 14 day isolation at their own cost for a loooooong time yet. There are not going to be to many rushing for that deal. The governments haven’t done all this just to start from scratch again. If Qantas don’t downsize they will be the only major airline in the world to achieve it. You can toss around percentages of the market, but that market won’t have anywhere near the number of passengers it used to...there not allowed into the county.
IN 2018 there were 8.5 million international visitors, it was projected to hit 10 million in 2020. There are an awful lot of domestic trips that they won’t be taking now.

i think we will be surprised by just how many will want to come to Australia when they can, even with strict 14 day quarantine. Backpackers, retirees etc who can spend months travelling around a huge country and NZ, freely with no risk of COVID.

If quarantine controlled international arrivals are allowed here by northern hemisphere winter, Australia will be a very popular place for those with money to stay here for 3-4mths.

I have been talking with some expat UK friends that live here and they are really hoping to bring parents and family here to escape the northern winter and potential second/third wave. They said everyone they talk to are thinking the same thing, even getting family out here permanently as soon as possible.

Australia is in for a post COVID boom the likes of post WWII.

[Captain Fun]

Leave 1500 stood down for $30 million, or

Make 400 redundant for $30 million.

400 redundant still leaves 1100 stood down at a cost of about $20-25 million...

So 400 redundancies and 1100 stood down is $50+ million.

Very rough numbers and plenty of variables but prolonged stand down makes sense to me over deep cuts.

[crosscutter]

Absolutely Captain! Remember that when the company come asking to save some of that $30M. They want flexibility from us to reduce costs, but what do we want in return? Did someone whisper the Tasman?

[Ollie Onion]

Ha ha, it is cute that you think this will be a negotiation. It will be more like ‘do it this way or stay stood down’.

[crosscutter]

Usually I’d agree with you...however, whenever ratified EBA’s are up for temporary amendment it certainly is a negotiation. We have savings they want that are currently unavailable.

[Blueskymine]

If we have to give up leave accrual while stood down to prevent CR. Its a no brainer.

[Beer Baron]

If we have to give up leave accrual while stood down to prevent CR. Its a no brainer.
Is it?
2000+ pilots go to zero income to prevent (who knows) 2-300 pilots from going to zero income. It’s something we will all need to consider the merits of but I don’t think it is a ‘no brainer’.

Are the most junior pilots served well by being stood down with no leave for an indefinite period vs being made redundant and paid out accordingly?
I’d have though that a guarantee of re-employment, in seniority order, at the earliest possible moment in reply to a temporary reduction in MGH (as an example) would provide a greater total benefit to the pilot body.

[dr dre]

Is it?
2000+ pilots go to zero income to prevent (who knows) 2-300 pilots from going to zero income. It’s something we will all need to consider the merits of but I don’t think it is a ‘no brainer’.

Are the most junior pilots served well by being stood down with no leave for an indefinite period vs being made redundant and paid out accordingly?
I’d have though that a guarantee of re-employment, in seniority order, at the earliest possible moment in reply to a temporary reduction in MGH (as an example) would provide a greater total benefit to the pilot body.

The big advantage to keeping everyone one stood down, is that you are still an employee. You are still in the system, so when some flying slowly comes back it can be shared around for all at lower divisors and all can have a regular income (albeit less than before). Being an employee means the company has legal obligations to you, and should look out for your welfare as well.

Being made redundant means you are on your own. There is the redundancy list, but it means running the HR gauntlet again and having them approve more recruitment, which won't happen for a while I guess. HR may be happy to keep a lower number of pilots on higher hours than re-employ those made redundant? Not to mention the psychological effect of being made redundant. Anyone made redundant isn't going to be finding employment as a pilot very easily.

A lot of those at the bottom are in their first stable airline job, and at an age where they have taken out a home loan, just gotten married, had their first child etc. They are at a vulnerable stage of life and throwing them out on the street with a few weeks redundancy payout into an environment where airline employment is near on impossible is something I cannot do in good conscience.

[Beer Baron]

A lot of great points. Well put.

[Transition Layer]

Is it?
2000+ pilots go to zero income to prevent (who knows) 2-300 pilots from going to zero income. It’s something we will all need to consider the merits of but I don’t think it is a ‘no brainer’.

Are the most junior pilots served well by being stood down with no leave for an indefinite period vs being made redundant and paid out accordingly?
I’d have though that a guarantee of re-employment, in seniority order, at the earliest possible moment in reply to a temporary reduction in MGH (as an example) would provide a greater total benefit to the pilot body.
Didn’t blueskymine refer to leave accrual while stood down? Not sure how that equates to zero income. JobKeeper might continue post Sept for certain industries/companies (like Qantas) but the company might say “collect your govt money, burn some leave (if you have some) to supplement it, but your leave balance won’t grow while stood down on Jobkeeper”. I think that’s what they were referring to.

[Blueskymine]

Well said Dr Dre, for exactly that.

A no brainer.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Sorry to disagree here. If the viability of the company is dependant on whether or not they are accruing leave entitlements for those stood down, we are all doomed.

I am all for reduced MGH once we are all stood up to avoid redundancies - as per Dr Dre’s reasoning, but the company can’t have half its workforce stood down indefinitely because it suits them at zero cost to them.

There has to be some give and take - the company get massive flexibility when it’s time to be ramping up by having everyone still on the books, the least they can do is dribble in your entitlements, and the least we can do is be flexible around MGH once we are all stood back up.

[Global Aviator]

i think we will be surprised by just how many will want to come to Australia when they can, even with strict 14 day quarantine. Backpackers, retirees etc who can spend months travelling around a huge country and NZ, freely with no risk of COVID.

If quarantine controlled international arrivals are allowed here by northern hemisphere winter, Australia will be a very popular place for those with money to stay here for 3-4mths.

I have been talking with some expat UK friends that live here and they are really hoping to bring parents and family here to escape the northern winter and potential second/third wave. They said everyone they talk to are thinking the same thing, even getting family out here permanently as soon as possible.

Australia is in for a post COVID boom the likes of post WWII.

It is great to see people with a positive outlook. It can’t get much worse than what it is, one would hope! I to am a believer that things will get better sooner than expected. Of course for airlines that means they have to be ready when a ramp up comes.

Making huge redundancies, LWOP, etc, will there be enough trainers and sims?

Will it be a case of QF Int parked up whilst the likes of QR, EK, SQ, etc who are possibly in a more ready position take the work?

[Fonz121]

I guarantee that almost, if not every pilot on the bottom of the list would very much prefer no leave accrual whilst stood down (lwop pretty much) over redundancy. Keeping the connection is key.

[Green.Dot]

I guarantee that almost, if not every pilot on the bottom of the list would very much prefer no leave accrual whilst stood down (lwop pretty much) over redundancy. Keeping the connection is key.

Concur, I would say a huge difference in most people’s mental health between taking LWOP over redundancy, don’t underestimate the importance of that right now.

[dragon man]

The 6 380s that are not refurbished are been sent to the Mojave next month to reduce parking fees. I don’t know if they are coming back.

[dontgive2FACs]

True that redundancy has a terrible effect on someone’s mental health.

It’s happened to me twice before, once in 90s and another time as a knock-on from Ansett.

Both times it was just myself (no dependents or mortgage etc). Both times still terrible; as were the empty promises from the regional operator to rehire us when the time came.

Sadly, in our volatile industry, it can be cyclical feast or famine. If you haven’t already, It’s likely that most will be touched by some form of this in a pilot career.

For the newer pilots, perhaps those who just landed an airline job and thought they’d made it (took out the mortgage, bought the car, had the kids etc), I do feel for you. Sometimes you’re just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Could just as easily have been me.

Lessons learned the hard way. The only thing for sure is that persistence and determination will ensure you’re back flying when the time comes.

[Scooter Rassmussin]

Honestly I think QF Long Haul will need everybody by sometime next year . you would think that with a strong balance sheet QF will exploit the market where other Airlines cannot , they surely must be looking at new routes as country's open up .
Qf has probably a once in a lifetime chance to establish new markets and encourage Australians to fly with them, the FF scheme certainly helps with loyalty. The other unknown is Virgin , if they dont come back who will carry the 20 million pax per year they once had .
There is a real possibility in the future that QF group will need to expand in size rather than contract. play the waiting game and all will be revealed .

[Wingspar]

Also I would expect a lot of point to point travel.
That way would minimise risks that hubs would otherwise present.
Perhaps something for the 787 crew to be positive about.

[TimmyTee]

For those advocating that being redundant and then re-employed will be a simple process, just need to go ask the third of the bloke cadets who got scrapped for pretty dodgy reasons (if any). While they weren't on the seniority list, they did have to go through the whole HR gauntlet all over again. Effectively you could be in a similar position they found themselves in years after passing all the hurdles.
If you're a male near the bottom of the list, I'd be cautious of any "offer" like this..

[Give it the herbs]

If you're a male near the bottom of the list, I'd be cautious of any "offer" like this..

I must have missed the part of the EBA that says they'll only fire males in reverse seniority

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

I must have missed the part of the EBA that says they'll only fire males in reverse seniority

but if they lay off the bottom 200 pilots, when it comes time to re-hire, HR have diversity quotas to fill...

[dragon man]

but if they lay off the bottom 200 pilots, when it comes time to re-hire, HR have diversity quotas to fill...


F##k HR and the horse they rode in on.

[Lookleft]

So just to be sure that I have this correct. At present there has not been a single pilot within the Qantas Group who has been issued with any redundancy notice. This might change in a very dynamic situation but for now all pilots are still employed as pilots albeit most not actually flying. I think all this angst over RIN/ redunancy/ down training is just causing a lot of people a lot of unnecessary anxiety. Just be grateful that you are employed by an airline that stands a very good chance of coming out of this situation in a much stronger position than its contemporaries. Certainly in a much better position than any domestic competitor. If you are so concerned about where you stand in terms of having a job in QF then can I suggest you start focusing your energy on obtaining a different qualification otherwise just take things one roster period at a time to paraphrase the footy coaches.

[Asturias56]

"Hiring and training pilots can be so limiting to expansion as it has a considerable lag time."

true but you're assuming the rebound will be very fast - in fact , like after 911, it'll be 2-3 years. there will be a load of pilots out there , many in Australia, and they don't need training from scratch when you need them. I suspect it'll be a slow, but steady expansion - but from a very low base.

[ozbiggles]

You have to admire the optimism considering Qantas are still led by the CEO who locked everyone out in 2011.

[TimmyTee]

I must have missed the part of the EBA that says they'll only fire males in reverse seniority
With the current PC climate that we find ourselves in, you're highly optimistic if you don't think there will be a 50/50 gender "equality" quota installed when all this turns around..

[Give it the herbs]

With the current PC climate that we find ourselves in, you're highly optimistic if you don't think there will be a 50/50 gender "equality" quota installed when all this turns around..
Without drifting from the thread too far - from all accounts of pilots who were involved in recruitment in late 2016, the 1/3 of "bloke cadets" that you mentioned earlier who "got scrapped for pretty dodgy reasons" arrived on interview day feeling rather self-important and underprepared.

Let's hope no one needs to be made redundant on the list. Re your earlier post, suggesting taking LWOP (or some variation of) to be recalled in seniority would be a disadvantage to males only is drawing a longbow. However, I do agree 50/50 gender targets will be back on HR's menu once the hiring wave begins down the track, as it was pre CV19.

[JamieMaree]

With the current PC climate that we find ourselves in, you're highly optimistic if you don't think there will be a 50/50 gender "equality" quota installed when all this turns around..

You are dreaming . as someone once said, RTFA. (Read the fuc*king Agreement)

[ScepticalOptomist]

Love all this pie in the sky BS you guys are going on about.

Redundancy and re-employment are all VERY well covered in the EBA. As is LWOP, stand down, and all the good things that go with it.

As fun as it is to poke fun at QF - the pilots EBA spells out what can and can not happen.

Deep breath and relax folks - the sky isn’t falling.

[TimmyTee]

You are dreaming . as someone once said, RTFA. (Read the fuc*king Agreement)

What I admittedly don't understand is how someone can be assured that they are covered by an agreement if they are not employed by the company.
In other words, what stops a company coming out and saying "in line with gender equality criteria, we will be employing at 50/50"?

[Jack D]

F##k HR and the horse they rode in on.


Amen to that ! Best post here

[Jack D]

F##k HR and the horse they rode in on.


Amen to that ! Best post here

[ozbiggles]

Better be careful, HR hold a pretty good hand in this scenario.

[Keg]

The EA has pretty comprehensive guidance around re-employment. If a pilot has complied with the EA requirements it’d take a pretty significant argument by the company to suggest that re-employment should be by different means.

[Telfer86]

I wouldn't be too worried about any gender targets re: hiring because the QF group won't be hiring for a long long time

Remember mainline didn't hire for 8 years post GFC , & this is a tad worse , international business now at zero and will stay there for
the foreseeable future

Wouldn't the only hiring be reshuffling those already within the group ?

Agree with Keg that CR is clear how re-employment occurs . On that point why would any ML person take a VR ? , the payout will be lesser than CR and there
is no right of return, and no other flying jobs out there

The return to work following a stand down is clear as mud , no details , nothing prescriptive at all , ie" by seniority , by type , by base , by % of normal workload
No details there

You should just unite as a group and make QF make you CR if that is what it comes to , payouts maximised & a guaranteed right of return first

The only other element you might be able to add is preference for employment with other group airlines , in Australia & OS while you wait , or other employment
in the group

[Obie]

For anyone that may not know Keg, he has been around a long,long time and his view is always worth listening to!

[ozbiggles]

We will just have to settle for reading it here, at least until pprune comes with an audio function on e day.

[Keg]

We will just have to settle for reading it here, at least until pprune comes with an audio function on e day.

I’d need to get someone to do the audio. My Aussie strine would be torture to listen to!

I think it’s also worth looking at this from the company’s perspective- isn’t that a Sun Tzu thing to consider your predicament from the opposition’s view point?

Do you think they’d prefer to pay 6 months to someone at the start of their career and run the risk of not getting them back or find the ‘sweet spot’ amount of money (perhaps a similar amount of money or perhaps less depending on who they’re offering) to get people to leave at the end of their careers and still retain the investment on those newer crew.

If the A380 is a chance to remain stood down beyond March next year and/ or reduced capacity when it comes back, would an A380 Captain consider taking a package worth (say) $150K in March next year or potentially work 50% (or less) divisors for the next 12 months until they get to retirement?

I’m also pretty confident that the company can put an individual offer to specific crew so I’m sure there would be a bit of a ‘sliding scale’ as to how much a particular pilot may be offered depending on their time to retirement.

Anyway, it’s going to be a rough couple of years. Very few winners anywhere.

[73qanda]

Keg FM....I’d tune in.

[oicur12.again]

What I admittedly don't understand is how someone can be assured that they are covered by an agreement if they are not employed by the company.
In other words, what stops a company coming out and saying "in line with gender equality criteria, we will be employing at 50/50"?

Not legal.

But it is amusing watching pilots soil their strides at the thought of losing almost exclusivity in the workplace.

[TimmyTee]

Losing exclusivity in the workplace? You mean their own individual jobs?

[Telfer86]

But why would you accept a VR ?

The money will be less than CR and you forfeit guaranteed right of return

Think Keg is incorrect in thinking that a sliding scale can be offered which targets those who are older

Don't VRs just apply for years of service , not years remaining , why for example would a 55 year old leave - they will not get another job

Just stick together and maximize the payout to any who get CR , make AJ pay the full amount as prescribed by EA

"If" there is a CR it would have to be done in seniority , so a % of those at the bottom go & are all reemployed within 5 years - all works out

The Kiwis acted promptly and set the example - just follow it and try to get provisions in any deal for those made redundant to have preference for employment at other QF group airlines (obviously after their own for example
Qlink come back)

The only variable is if you have to CR across each division of mainline - are SH FOs who have been around for short time protected by the fact they went to SH

[Street garbage]

Careful oicur12. Pilots are loosing their livelihood and some have gone further than “soil their strides”. Just look at what’s happened at EK in the last week. Very sad. I don’t think it’s amusing at all.

Some people will always gloat at other's misfortune.
What a low life comment.

[Street garbage]

Not legal.

But it is amusing watching pilots soil their strides at the thought of losing almost exclusivity in the workplace.

What a low life comment, gloating at other's misfortune. Are you looking for a job in management? Or just trying to climb the greasy pole?

[oicur12.again]

Careful oicur12. Pilots are loosing their livelihood and some have gone further than “soil their strides”. Just look at what’s happened at EK in the last week. Very sad. I don’t think it’s amusing at all.I agree, the loss of jobs occurring is very stressful and I have several friends in dire circumstances. There is nothing funny at all about job loss and I didn't mean to imply anything to the contrary.

What is amusing and the subject of my previous post is that even in these desperate times, men are still conspiracy theorizing about mythical quotas that could see women move beyond the pathetic 5% of the cockpit seats they presently occupy.

Hence my comment about exclusivity.

It's something our friend from NZ in later comments clearly does not understand.

[Pundit]

Isn't a pilot a pilot a pilot? Or at least I thought that was the case.

[TimmyTee]

The point was, even if it’s only 5%, if a group of them are made redundant, there will no doubt be a push by HR to re-employ at a different, more “equal” ratio down the track..

[slats11]

Back in February on another thread, I was warning this was going to be huge. I was repeatedly told "this virus has nothing to do with aviation so take your opinions elsewhere", as well as receiving the benefit of several lessons in high school math regarding exponential growth curves and log functions.

Anyway, that was a few months ago. I think the latest data suggests fairly strongly that we are further through this than we think, and that society overall will recover a bit faster than many think. Look at the ASX and NYSE.

I don't think there will be a devastating 2nd wave. Yes cases will increase as measures are relaxed. However there is very little chance we will need to lockdown again.

Sure, cases are increasing in parts of the USA. Behind the headline total numbers however, the % hospitalised and the % who die are falling significantly. The explanation is that with increased testing capacity, they are finding more of the milder cases that were always there but not diagnosed initially. It now appears clear the mortality rate is way under 1% (and closer to 0.1% for those under 60).

However, it will be a very different world for aviation for years to come
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). Businesses will be saying "Zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....."
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y

So aviation will recover sooner than we think. But it will be a different world. Airlines and their workforce will need to plan accordingly.

Embrace change, or else it will embrace you.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-retire-a380s?fbclid=IwAR2xlaF1ezJFN1YemSdPopRX_fom7lFFInmQPI3J_jPoS hcOp82UzxwEQpM

Qantas looks to mothball it’s flagship Airbus A380s

[Telfer86]

TT , QF can employ 100% diversity if or when they chose if they employ externals

Compulsory redundancies are re-employed in seniority order

So why does diversity employment atm even rate a mention

Mainline didn't employ externals for 8 years post GFC , so long time to employ any externals now

Just take the very generous & prescriptive CR dollars and put the guaranteed re-employment slip in your back pocket

Your leader will probably be sipping pink daiquiris at a luxurious penthouse on South Beach or yodeling from atop a luxurious villa in the Swiss Alps by that time
but you can't change that

[SandyPalms]

the A380 fleet will only ever return to maximum of six. That confirms it. The aircraft the haven’t been redone are finished.

[Ollie Onion]

I have heard that Jetstar is planning on the 787 being grounded for another 9 months, so no realistic plans for international travel until March/April 2021.

[Icarus2001]

so no realistic plans for international travel until March/April 2021. Not really realistic given that there is a small amount of international travel even now. This will lift faster and harder than the media are portraying. Their focus now is second wave fear.

[Keg]

Even when the borders do open up I can’t see the demand coming back for another 12+ months beyond that for 500 seats a day between SYD/ MEL and LAX, or SYD/MEL- LHR.

I can see demand coming back that would require smaller aeroplanes to fly that schedule though. Aeroplanes that Qantas currently doesn’t have enough of!

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Even when the borders do open up I can’t see the demand coming back for another 12+ months beyond that for 500 seats a day between SYD/ MEL and LAX, or SYD/MEL- LHR.

I can see demand coming back that would require smaller aeroplanes to fly that schedule though. Aeroplanes that Qantas currently doesn’t have enough of!

If QF took JQs 11 787s that would be 22 787s and 28 A330s. Would that be enough to cover QFs international network post COVID?

[ozbiggles]

Really?
Qantas and Air NZ parking up their international fleets in deserts fills you full of confidence?
2nd waves breaking out in the States fills you full of confidence?
The majority of cases in NZ and Aus are being bought in from overseas fills you full of confidence?
The tourism minister today saying he doesn’t know when it is going to happen and saying the tourism industry is going to be hit the longest fills you with confidence?
You are not seeing travel at the moment, you are seeing citizens returning home for a 14 day stay in a hotel.
I mean I’d love to have a leprechaun to find me a pot of gold but I think I will tune into reality first.

[Keg]

If QF took JQs 11 787s that would be 22 787s and 28 A330s. Would that be enough to cover QFs international network post COVID?

Yes but I’ve been told previously the JQ 787s are ‘unsuitable’ to be converted to mainline configuration (crew rest the biggest issue but not the only one) and QF would be better off just sourcing new airframes and trying to sell the JQ airframes. That said, they’ve already put out an EOI for at least some of those airframes and I’m not sure they have received or will receive much interest in them.

Of course if a vaccine is discovered before the end of the year then it’s going to be a V and I can see demand for the A380s coming back pretty quickly. Without that vaccine though.....

[Telfer86]

You guys need to get a grasp of reality

The Chief Medical Officers say vaccine 12 to 18 months "best case" ; 18 months is a "best case" , that is September 2021

A vaccine to this point has never been successfully developed for any Coronavirus

Our state borders remain closed

If you are back to 50% of international two years post pandemic - well that would be incredible

[dragon man]

Let’s face some reality if I may. There has never been a successful corona vaccine. The 6 380s go next month as I posted days ago, the 747s are finished, the Jetstar 787s can be used on some Qantas routes as they are ie Bali, New Zealand and domestic. The number of infections are surging in Mexico, South America, India, Pakistan and The Middle East. The death rate has dropped however BUT Florida as an example is reporting a mutation that makes it easier to spread. As the minister has said no international travel from Australia till 2021 and he didn’t say when in 2021. Qantas has to many long haul pilots and that’s a fact also I think it’s fair to say they don’t want to keep paying 51 days leave per year to pilots stood down. I think it’s fair to see there will be a VR. If that doesn’t get the numbers where they want them then they will look at other options. This doesn’t only apply tp pilots but CC , engineers, etc. Good luck to everyone and keep well.

[Maggie Island]

Back in February on another thread, I was warning this was going to be huge. I was repeatedly told "this virus has nothing to do with aviation so take your opinions elsewhere", as well as receiving the benefit of several lessons in high school math regarding exponential growth curves and log functions.

Anyway, that was a few months ago. I think the latest data suggests fairly strongly that we are further through this than we think, and that society overall will recover a bit faster than many think. Look at the ASX and NYSE.



Let’s not forget that the ASX/DJI hit their all time highs in mid-late Feb AFTER the initial travel bans had been enacted and more importantly after many experts in the field had warned of the severe impact.

The stock market isn’t the worst indicator of where things are going but it’s far from the best.

[slats11]

A vaccine to this point has never been successfully developed for any Coronavirus

Yes. Previous CV vaccine research ran into problems. Far from being protective, vaccinated animals did worse when subsequently exposed to the virus. In the end, SARS disappeared and CV vaccine research was shelved with some warnings for future potential researchers.

A vaccine is possible. Sure. A lot of $ are being thrown at this. But it remains highly speculative. As do any plans dependent on a vaccine.

[Telfer86]

Assume no vaccine - it hasn't been done before

If people were to hazard a guess what do you think the numbers let go around the group would be ? or %

Will it be similar to NZ mainline around 30 % , they let go 380 then 100 more ? Qlink ? , Jetstar ?

If those who have to leave can be re-employed with other QF group airlines , well that is way better than nothing

[slats11]

The stock market isn’t the worst indicator of where things are going but it’s far from the best.

TAB etc do a better job of picking winners (sports or elections) than do professional pollsters. Partly because people place their $ on what they honestly believe the outcome will be - not on the outcome they hope for. Partly because of the large numbers of people involved in the markets tend to cancel out bias (scorpion submarine).

I have seen a number of financial analyses peering into the COVID crystal ball. They have been better than the medical analyses. I suspect this is because the financial guys just look at the data and try to see a pattern, rather than trying to get the data it to fit a preconceived model. Perhaps also the financial guys are better funded / resourced.

Sure the markets were slow to price in the bad news. So was just about everyone. But my guess is the pros did ok. It’s unusually the mugs who pile in at the end of a Ponzi scheme who do their dough.

[crosscutter]

In a week or so we will have a better idea.....however it has been said by TLS, ‘we (Qantas) have to plan for the worst’.

Even if a vaccine was proved late this year, there is the issue of global distribution. Vaccine passport anyone? The likelihood of Qantas PLANNING for any long haul schedule in FY21 is slim. This is backed up by Jefferies’ analysis. Of course, they want the flexibility to ramp up though.

They will transfer as much ‘risk’ to employees as possible whilst reducing their own cash burn. This means any non essential RIN will be delayed. 747 RIN will happen. Redundancies will be minimised as they are expensive compared to existing stand down provisions but some will be offered. Some may be forced. Consequently, the majority should expect to be stood down for another year. Qantas’ prerogative is to minimise costs. In the pilot division that doesn’t necessarily mean a massive headcount reduction. It’s not that we’re ‘family’, it’s because it COSTS LESS.

The company and the association have said no decisions have been made. It is absolute rubbish. The management of those decisions are being explored but they have a strategy and just need the board to sign off on it. Making certain your own personal circumstances would be sound advice. Don’t be the one left staring at the headlights.

Unlike the sharemarkets, aviation profit and the success of their workers is not based on sentiment.

[Blueskymine]

QF can move costs around at will. It can justify 6 weeks leave a year per pilot as an expense. 6 weeks leave is cheaper than making guys CR and then the churn in training to backfill in the future. 1 seat change is 4-6 seat changes & 2-3 years of paying a pilots to be non productive.

When a suitable time presents, it’ll write the costs off. For instance it could hold the cost of the fleet higher and use that gap for wages, then write the fleet off at a later date.

The staff will be stood down until required. Natural attrition will sort out the numbers through retirements and medical retirements. I don’t even think there will be VR packages.

[ozbiggles]

I’m sure the ATO will be happy to hear that is the plan.

[Keg]

The company and the association have said no decisions have been made. It is absolute rubbish. The management of those decisions are being explored but they have a strategy and just need the board to sign off on it.

Approaching DPA I’ve planned for a few different outcomes and contingencies. As I get there I say ‘go’ on the required option. This is the same in terms of looking at the company response to Covid. The significant difference being that there are multiple decision points along this COVID journey including ‘sit on your hands’. In the next week or so we reach one of them. There are more to come as more information comes in.

[Blueskymine]

I’m sure the ATO will be happy to hear that is the plan.


Well 6 A380s parked up and written off at a future date at a convenient time should sort that out. 12 is golden.

You also saw something similar during the record loss. It was basically manufactured by holding the fleet value high and pumping the write offs into one FY. Plus a lot of waste was cut and here we are today.

[Ollie Onion]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8431679/Qantas-cancels-international-flights-end-October.html

[73qanda]

Slightly off topic but
Approaching DPA I’ve planned for a few different outcomes and contingencies. As I get there I say ‘go’ on the required option. This is the same in terms of looking at the company response to Covid.
That is the easiest and simplest way of describing the purpose/ use of DPA I’ve heard. For some reason some pilots make DPA complex but that sums up its simplicity well.

[Angle of Attack]

I reckon all the A380’s are dead in the water, what a monumental waste of money those pieces of junk have been.

[Australopithecus]

I reckon all the A380’s are dead in the water, what a monumental waste of money those pieces of junk have been.

In hindsight, yes. But back in the day they sure looked like the future of aviation. Too bad Airbus overpromised on reliability and efficiency, but that was only slightly predictable back then.

[V-Jet]

I think every Qf pilot would recall 777's were available.... :( :(

[Sunfish]

The border closures are going to have to remain until at least India and China are no longer out of control. The reason being that the pandemic is triggering massive migrations of those who can afford to escape to relative safety. We will simply be overwhelmed in Australia if we opened our borders any time soon.

[slats11]

Unless they are “students” of course. Then it’s open sesame.

[Lookleft]

The students will still be required to quarantine in a hotel at the University's expense and the cost of the flight will be covered by the student so not really open slather.

[ozbiggles]

I’m sure the UK and USA and all other countries other than just the Asian ones were meant to be on that list..

[slats11]

ANU vice-chancellor Brian Schmidt said while the students would need to be quarantined for two weeks in hotels — with costs divided between students, the universities and the ACT government…

Good to know the taxpayer is on the hook for this one

[Rabbitwear]

QF if they are considering and have the Nuts for it could possibly make all long haul crews redundant pay them out and absorb the loss in future by reemploying as required on new lower paid contracts so in 5 to 10 years they are streaks ahead of leaving the status Quo .

[Keg]

QF if they are considering and have the Nuts for it could possibly make all long haul crews redundant pay them out and absorb the loss in future by reemploying as required on new lower paid contracts so in 5 to 10 years they are streaks ahead of leaving the status Quo .

Nope. That’s not how it works. Qantas Pilots made redundant are re-employed on the same terms and conditions as they left. It would take a very significant challenge in court for Qantas to have the agreement cancelled for them to try that on. I’m not sure anyone has ever had success making their workforce redundant, apply to cancel the award that covers those employees redundancy and re-employment, and then re-hiring those same employees on lower terms and conditions.

[Global Aviator]

If Qantas or Virgin are not doing all the student flights you have to ask why?

[Transition Layer]

The Government has shown throughout this crisis that they don’t give a sh1t about aviation in this country or the jobs associated with it. The cancellation of the minimum International network flown by Qantas and Virgin just one example. Now the Middle Eastern mobs are increasing capacity (running at a loss), but no more subsidies for any International flights flown by QF or VA.

[ozbiggles]

Because other companies do it cheaper? If you try and enforce an Australian only airline then every other country will retaliate and then this thing continues on even longer that COVID. Would you go overseas if that country said you can only fly our airline or am I pitching this to high? If it was a government paid charter different story but the students will pay the airline bills. Simples

It is not the government paying the bills, it is the TAXPAYER. Everybody wants the taxpayer to pay their bills at the moment it seems. If you have kids they will be very old before they see the bill paid back for this. And what happens in the meantime if another black swan takes flight? Not everything can be saved including your job, welcome to the new reality.

Now I would have liked the government to bail out the airlines, but I understand it is what it is. Now again before people go off on their completely uneducated tangents the government has been paying jobkeeper to Qantas, VA, Rex etc and some support for domestic and international flights. I’d love to see more, but it is already a lot in terms of TAXPAYERS money. It is all going on a credit card, not from a savings account. Do we stop paying for hospitals because every pilot should keep his job?

Speaking as a pilot who lost his job because of Covid who doesn’t get Jobkeeper or jobseeker.

[Pundit]

Keg, I appreciate you are an elder statesman of Prune, but it is a new world. AIPA/AFAP contracts will be thrown out the window. AJ has grounded the airline and will do it again. I believe it is goodbye seniority, goodbye 4 engines. Adjust to the new world. IMHO, neither AIPA or AFAP will fight for seniority.

[34R]

Keg, I appreciate you are an elder statesman of Prune, but it is a new world. AIPA/AFAP contracts will be thrown out the window. AJ has grounded the airline and will do it again. I believe it is goodbye seniority, goodbye 4 engines. Adjust to the new world. IMHO, neither AIPA or AFAP will fight for seniority.

Wow!
Thanks for clearing that up...

[Pundit]

I really hope I am proved wrong 34R

[slats11]

I suspect you are right.

There had already been a progressive transfer of risk to the individual eg casualisation of the workforce, more superannuation & less pension ....

COVID will dramatically accelerate this.

The world is going to look very different. It some ways, better maybe. It other ways, I fear worse.

But change is here. Embrace it, or it will embrace you.

[Blueskymine]

Qantas have said over and over again that any RIN will be in accordance with the contract at an appropriate time.

The red herring is how long they can keep crews stood down for. Qantas thinks there is no limit. That is where the debate will be. Not about a CR by fleet.

[Keg]

Keg, I appreciate you are an elder statesman of Prune, but it is a new world. AIPA/AFAP contracts will be thrown out the window. AJ has grounded the airline and will do it again. I believe it is goodbye seniority, goodbye 4 engines. Adjust to the new world. IMHO, neither AIPA or AFAP will fight for seniority.

Crikey, I’ve no objection to people disagreeing with me but ‘elder statesman’? That’s just a low blow, particularly when I’m still south of 50! :eek: :sad: :{:ok:

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

JQ officially planning on 787 being grounded until mid 2021, I’d imagine QF would be similar.

[Australopithecus]

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.

[Global Aviator]

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.

STOP talking common sense!

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.

That point has been raised multiple times by JQ 787 guys but has been flatly rejected by the company. Unlike QF, JQ don’t have the infrastructure set up for WB domestic operations. The fleet is being put into long term storage and the 787 pilots aren’t being put through the sim to maintain currency, unlike the NB pilots.

[Bad Adventures]

I think you’ll find there will be travel bubbles with Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong by the end of the year in addition to NZ and the Pacific Islands if not then very early next year. They’ll be huge pressure from business and tourism to get the things moving. Qf domestic will be busy with Virgin being a substantially smaller operation.