QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

[ScepticalOptomist]

...How else will Management feed the gullible their narrative so that Pilots can continually kick own goals in Public Forums....
FUD

100% this. You need to understand the mechanisms that the company use to slowly erode staff resistance to otherwise BS ideas..

[KRUSTY 34]

Can you share the link?

Sorry, tried and failed. Story is in SMH today.

[Chris2303]

Can you share the link?

Is this it?

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/enormous-wastage-audit-looms-for-executive-bonuses-paid-by-firms-on-jobkeeper-20201212-p56my4.html

[FightDeck]

Yes but Alan got 1,700,000 share options. So it’s not a “bonus” but It’s an awful lot of awarded shares.
must be worth at today’s value? 9 million?

[Wingspar]

December 8 article about vaccine rollout in the UK;

“Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said: "I don't think people should expect anything over the next few days because the reality is, as I said, that for the vast, vast, vast majority of people this will be done in January, February, March.”

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1369238/vaccine-rollout-timeline-when-can-i-get-vaccine-order-uk-evg

So if the ‘vast’ bulk of the UK is vaccinated by March and I’m assuming the reproduction number and active case would be significantly reduced by then what is stopping QF reactivating PER-LHR after that time?

[ruprecht]

So if the ‘vast’ bulk of the UK is vaccinated by March and I’m assuming the reproduction number and active case would be significantly reduced by then what is stopping QF reactivating PER-LHR after that time?

Mark McGowan :hmm:

[Wingspar]

Classic!😂

Actually if he does object then I hope QF do LHR-DRW with connections to other states.

More direct route for east coast pax.

[DirectAnywhere]

It's actually a really interesting question.

It's become apparent Australia's politicians won't accept any cases of community transmission. If Australia's vaccine of choice (Oxford/ Astra Zeneca) is 70-90% effective, seemingly dependent upon the final dosage regime, some might get sick, some might die if they come in to contact with a COVID case.

The politicians are still going to have to make some decisions around the risk they're willing to accept and how that's going to translate when it comes to opening up the international borders.

[compressor stall]

There's significant information suggesting that the vaccine does not stop you spreading the virus - rather it stops you getting sick.

In that light, don't expect borders to open quickly until most o the population has received the vaccine.

[knobbycobby]

By the time everyone is vaccinated in overseas destinations and here at home,I think it is fair to assume there will not be significant International travel until start of 2022 at the earliest.With the exemption of a very small number of travel bubbles.
The Government is not going to risk a domestic consumer boom given no COVID cases.Shopping centres are packed.Restaurants full.
2021 will be closed off whilst until vaccinations take place.They have said late 2021 but I think start 2022 or mid 2022 is realistic.

[FlareHighLandLong]

There's significant information suggesting that the vaccine does not stop you spreading the virus - rather it stops you getting sick.

In that light, don't expect borders to open quickly until most o the population has received the vaccine.

You may be right. I am of the impression that the focus of the initial trials have been on whether it stops disease. It might be that any one of the vaccines are also very effective at preventing infection. It’s not that they don’t prevent infection, it’s just that that hasn’t been the focus of the testing and they haven’t gathered the data yet (perhaps it requires widespread blood testing instead of simpler observations). We have the luxury of waiting and learning from millions of foreign citizens providing data to enable a calm (non-emergency) approval, which may be of a vaccine that’s highly effective at both.

If we find that the vaccines are highly effective at preventing infection, a combination of vaccines and rapid testing technology could lead to significant non-quarantine travel just months into 2021.

What’s more concerning is questions about which vaccine is acceptable/approved and how it’s documented. If Australia approves oxford and is satisfied that it prevents infection, would we let in someone who’s received Pfizer if Aus isn’t satisfied about its effectiveness yet?

[Australopithecus]

Currently there is a difference between the designs of the stage 3 trials of the three leading vaccines.

The two messenger RNA vaccines were only evaluated by symptoms, not actual testing for the virus. The results are in the 90+% range.
The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine trial involved testing each participant weekly. The results are in the 70% range.

Because the trials were designed differently, the old apples/oranges comparisons are at work. And because of the different trial protocols, we don’t know really anything about if or for how long a vaccinated person may eventually become infectious without themselves ever getting sick.

Eventually these unknowns may prompt a rethink at the national level about compelling people to get vaccinated.

Currently about 70% of people aim to get vaccinated. If the vaccine is 70% effective at preventing infections, that still leaves about 50% of the population at risk, although with a reduced infection rate owing to at least partial herd immunity.

[knobbycobby]

Annoyingly the spam folder missed David Andrew’s or it is Andrew David’s BS email about the Quaintarse family.

The rhetoric about a Qantas being a family is unrealistic. Parents don't fire or stand down their children without pay to cut costs.
Hope he’s enjoying his share options and a return to full pay.Meanwhile the stood down staff scrape by below the poverty line. Unpaid by Quaintarse and in government minimums.
Abusive family more like it.

[blubak]

Annoyingly the spam folder missed David Andrew’s or it is Andrew David’s BS email about the Quaintarse family.

The rhetoric about a Qantas being a family is unrealistic. Parents don't fire or stand down their children without pay to cut costs.
Hope he’s enjoying his share options and a return to full pay.Meanwhile the stood down staff scrape by below the poverty line. Unpaid by Quaintarse and in government minimums.
Abusive family more like it.
The 'been everywhere' man.
He doesnt care about anyone,fits in perfectly with the rest of his smiling assasin executive team or whatever label they put on themselves.
Trouble is there are still people who believe what they say & think they care.

[Qanchor]

Trouble is there are still people who believe what they say & think they care.
It's not a lie if you truly believe it...:rolleyes:

[Ragnor]

The war room must be busy, not even a happy new yr email or a rundown of the last 12 months, not that we want to be reminded.

[dr dre]

The war room must be busy, not even a happy new yr email or a rundown of the last 12 months, not that we want to be reminded.

They did that in the Xmas emails, there were a few

[Fonz121]

So now that it looks like domestic crew will be going back to the stand up/stand down merry-go-round again, what’s going to happen once jobkeeper finishes in March? Will everyone have to down tools to go find a job that pays consistently?

[Buster Hyman]

... what’s going to happen once jobkeeper finishes in March?
Some might wish they didn't go sick for the pre Christmas training on offer. Just some....

[Transition Layer]

The newly announced PPP (Pilot Preservation Program) must surely be in doubt now with hard border closures all over the country. I note that attendance is compulsory.

Can the company force the program onto us? I gather that we will be stood up for maybe just a week or so. The ramifications for many people are huge if forced to isolate and therefore jeopardise their secondary employment. These secondary jobs are what is keeping food on the table and roofs over heads - not the paltry JobKeeper payments. Many people I speak to are extremely grateful for the lifeline handed to them by other companies, and won’t want to risk that. These such scenarios will continue to arise as flying increases and/or restrictions come and go and Qantas wants more and more flexibilities but doesn’t seem to want to pay for it.

I’m very happy there is finally recognition that we need to maintain our skills but at what point do we need to say enough is enough...we aren’t casual workers! Does AIPA have an opinion?

[PPRuNeUser0184]

The newly announced PPP (Pilot Preservation Program) must surely be in doubt now with hard border closures all over the country. I note that attendance is compulsory.

Can the company force the program onto us? I note that we will be stood up for maybe just a week or so. The ramifications for many people are huge if forced to isolate and therefore jeopardise their secondary employment. These secondary jobs are what is keeping food on the table and roofs over heads - not the paltry JobKeeper payments. Many people I speak to are extremely grateful for the lifeline handed to them by other companies, and won’t want to risk that. These such scenarios will continue to arise as flying increases and/or restrictions come and go and Qantas wants more and more flexibilities but doesn’t seem to want to pay for it.

I’m very happy there is finally recognition that we need to maintain our skills but at what point do we need to say enough is enough...we aren’t casual workers! Does AIPA have an opinion?

I am in this position you talk about. I have a full time job. I cannot jeopardise this and can’t just take a weeks leave every 3 months because Qantas want to stand me up for 4 days every 90.

I suspect that if people are unable to SU and participate in the PPP due to secondary employment then they will have to take LWOP This may well be a tactic to force more onto LWOP. Remember, Stand Down costs the company money (AL and LSL accrual).

[Tucknroll]

Where/when was this PPP thing announced?

[Wingspar]

I am in this position you talk about. I have a full time job. I cannot jeopardise this and can’t just take a weeks leave every 3 months because Qantas want to stand me up for 4 days every 90.

I suspect that if people are unable to SU and participate in the PPP due to secondary employment then they will have to take LWOP This may well be a tactic to force more onto LWOP. Remember, Stand Down costs the company money (AL and LSL accrual).

Nailed it!

[Wingspar]

I think the ball is in the company’s court while Jobkeeper is still going.

[Transition Layer]

Where/when was this PPP thing announced?
FSO came out just before Xmas

I hasn’t even considered that it was a ploy to force more onto LWOP. :bored:

[OnceBitten]

First of heard of this PPP. There is no requirement to check company emails or documents whilst stood down so how would you know unless you were being advised you were being stood up first?

On another note, its a shame Australia continues to flounder in and out of lockdowns for very small cases, massive over reaction that is costing individuals untold stress and companies millions of dollars.

And now it appears we have a Prime minister who either due to his religious beliefs is dragging the chain on the vaccine or alternately have been caught out with his pants down and hadn't ordered enough vaccines as they were hoping the UQ vaccine was going to be a cheaper option.

Agree or disagree about vaccinations, one thing that is certain is it's the only thing now that will save Australia from the current stupidity and allow the borders to remain open.

[Potsie Weber]

I would be surprised if the PPP went ahead for those subject to border restrictions. They would have to pay you an extra 2wks for isolation and I think forcing you to go to a state with community transmission could create a legal minefield.

[dr dre]

I would be surprised if the PPP went ahead for those subject to border restrictions. They would have to pay you an extra 2wks for isolation and I think forcing you to go to a state with community transmission could create a legal minefield.

They’ve done it for LH and SH training when required.

[Potsie Weber]

They’ve done it for LH and SH training when required.

When required to keep the operation going is likely a bit different. Forcing people to stand up, go interstate to do unnecessary training and then isolate for 2wks? For WA, if it’s medium risk, you may not even be allowed to return home.

[dr dre]

When required to keep the operation going is likely a bit different. Forcing people to stand up, go interstate to do unnecessary training and then isolate for 2wks?

Essential worker for required training is fine. This will keep the operation going (albeit in the future) as it’ll require less retraining just prior to operational stand up.

[ruprecht]

What course are the A380 crew going to do when they eventually come back?

BAK? :hmm:

[DirectAnywhere]

Maybe the risk analysis coupled with TRE feedback at training meetings has finally made them nervous?

I haven’t thought about flying an aeroplane for close to 12 months now. I certainly haven’t opened a manual. I’ve had better things to do, namely focus my efforts on my family and the people who now pay my salary. It’s going to be interesting to see how things go if and when I get back to work.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Maybe the risk analysis coupled with TRE feedback at training meetings has finally made them nervous?

I haven’t thought about flying an aeroplane for close to 12 months now. I certainly haven’t opened a manual. I’ve had better things to do, namely focus my efforts on my family and the people who now pay my salary. It’s going to be interesting to see how things go if and when I get back to work.

my thoughts exactly

[Keg]

I suspect that if people are unable to SU and participate in the PPP due to secondary employment then they will have to take LWOP This may well be a tactic to force more onto LWOP.

The PPP is aimed at crew who are standing up once every 4-6 months. IE those that still want the flying when it comes around. For those who have been stood down longer than 6-7 months (IE, those who have opted out of flying completely because of their new employment status), they do the new training courses as now outlined in the TACM whenever they decide to stand up and fly.

I know that from the discussions I’ve had with a few different people the LWOP aspect hasn’t even rated a mention. They were in fact quite conscious of the impact the PPP would have on people’s employment. Various iterations were being considered including it being just a weekend thing that people could fit in around their employment or be able to do whilst just taking an extra day or so off from their current work. Of course stupid lock down rules complicate things considerably and I don’t know how or why it ended up as the current system.

To suggest it’s intent or even secondary effect is to force people onto LWOP? I think that just demonstrates once again that pilots tend to jump at shadows.

I fear this year will feel longer and harder than last year as frustrations over what is occurring (or not occurring) increase. The PPP has already increased the level of angst for some as they work through what it means from them without more information. Theories such as the above will only increase the level of angst for some.

Be nice to each other. Take care. Happy New Year to all.

[Ollie Onion]

During our restructuring meetings with management it was voiced to us that Flying Operations were disappointed that flight crew were not keeping up with online courses, downloading manual updates etc, they put out several emails suggesting people use the 'break' to bone up on manual and SOP knowledge. I was amazed that they were surprised how when people are not getting paid they didn't want to carry out work tasks. Now I know there are some aerosexual's out there who get off on reading manuals but personally I do work related stuff when I am at work, if I am not working or being paid I don't even open my Company Ipad. I had no issues going back after 6 months, but do they really expect us to carry on with work related tasks when we are stood down on no pay?

[Transition Layer]

The PPP is aimed at crew who are standing up once every 4-6 months. IE those that still want the flying when it comes around. For those who have been stood down longer than 6-7 months (IE, those who have opted out of flying completely because of their new employment status), they do the new training courses as now outlined in the TACM whenever they decide to stand up and fly.

.

Have a look at the 787 list of flyers. Plenty of those in Capt/FO ranks haven’t touched the controls since March ‘20, and not through their own choosing. It just simply hasn’t reached their number on the list. They have no choice but to obtain secondary employment but would obviously also like to be kept current. The longer it drags on, the stronger the ties become to their new employer and many will be less likely to bend over backwards for QF.

The whole thing is a can of worms. People may be jumping at shadows about the company’s motives, but we’ve already seen during the pandemic how keen they are to force the LWOP option onto people to save a few measly bucks.

[Keg]

No objections to your first paragraph TL. I understand that. I’m hopeful and quietly confident that the aims of the PPP are honourable and won’t disadvantage people who aren’t able to organise the time off their new employment to do it. I’m also hopeful that they may be able to sort out some flexible arrangements/ modes of delivery for it.

However, if those further down the list (who haven’t flown yet) are able to take leave from their secondary employment to stand up and fly for a month, wouldn’t that mean they’d able to take leave for the PPP also?

As a side note, no one was ‘forced’ onto LWOP. Many on here advocated strongly against taking it unless you had something else up your sleeve already.

[ruprecht]

As a side note, no one was ‘forced’ onto LWOP. Many on here advocated strongly against taking it unless you had something else up your sleeve already.

How about “coerced with the threat of compulsory redundancy”? :hmm:

Speaking of which, where is normanton...? :p

[PPRuNeUser0184]

No objections to your first paragraph TL. I understand that. I’m hopeful and quietly confident that the aims of the PPP are honourable and won’t disadvantage people who aren’t able to organise the time off their new employment to do it. I’m also hopeful that they may be able to sort out some flexible arrangements/ modes of delivery for it.

However, if those further down the list (who haven’t flown yet) are able to take leave from their secondary employment to stand up and fly for a month, wouldn’t that mean they’d able to take leave for the PPP also?

As a side note, no one was ‘forced’ onto LWOP. Many on here advocated strongly against taking it unless you had something else up your sleeve already.

Not that easy. My secondary employer has advised that there are no more AL slots available until the new FY. I can’t just take leave when QF want me to. I suspect many will be the same .

Regarding the FSO my manager basically said since I’m only stood down I can be recalled with 14 days notice for the PPP. If that’s unachievable then my options are LWOP.

[Transition Layer]

No objections to your first paragraph TL. I understand that. I’m hopeful and quietly confident that the aims of the PPP are honourable and won’t disadvantage people who aren’t able to organise the time off their new employment to do it. I’m also hopeful that they may be able to sort out some flexible arrangements/ modes of delivery for it.

However, if those further down the list (who haven’t flown yet) are able to take leave from their secondary employment to stand up and fly for a month, wouldn’t that mean they’d able to take leave for the PPP also?

As a side note, no one was ‘forced’ onto LWOP. Many on here advocated strongly against taking it unless you had something else up your sleeve already.
The big problem comes when leave is not available from your secondary employer, perhaps due to length of service or staffing levels. Do you risk that full time job which will see you through the next year, for what is effectively now a casual position at QF offering one month of work every so often? And from a financial perspective, the secondary employment might pay poorly which means the need to stay “attached” to QF in order to dip into leave as required, especially once JobKeeper ends.

Qantas wants all the flexibility in the world, but aren’t willing to pay for it. It can’t go on like this indefinitely.

[pig dog]

It would be an interesting argument whether an employer has the right to demand an employee complete a duty which then results in mandatory quarantine.

There are various human rights that protect an individual from being detained including for the case of disease control. I understand that a crew member may be prepared to waive these rights if they wish to work however I’m not sure that an employer could enforce a work contract that would, as a result of crossing a border whilst working, create a situation where the employee is forced into detention thereby having their human rights breached.

If anyone knows the answer I’d love to hear it.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

The big problem comes when leave is not available from your secondary employer, perhaps due to length of service or staffing levels. Do you risk that full time job which will see you through the next year, for what is effectively now a casual position at QF offering one month of work every so often? And from a financial perspective, the secondary employment might pay poorly which means the need to stay “attached” to QF in order to dip into leave as required, especially once JobKeeper ends.

Qantas wants all the flexibility in the world, but aren’t willing to pay for it. It can’t go on like this indefinitely.

Exactly right

[Scooter Rassmussin]

This is 3rd wave , it will be devastating and there will be lay-offs .
The QF group will rebuild slowly and off the street over the next few years , and will be on a if you don’t like it leave contract ! As long as they don’t go broke !!

[The The]

We look after a severely immunocompromised close family member, if I am forced to stand up that will result in travel to anywhere there is community transmission and/or involves subsequent quarantine, I will direct them to my lawyer. If they say fine, go on LWOP, I will direct them to my lawyer for discrimination as every other pilot under the agreement has not been directed to take LWOP. I don't see how they can direct some to LWOP whilst leaving others just stood down. If they want me to come back to work, I will come back full-time as per the agreement, else I will stay stood down. I will take LWOP, if every single stood down pilot takes LWOP.

[engine out]

The The I think you will find you are not “stood up” your stand down is cancelled and you would be required to return to work as per your contract. If you didn’t wish to return to work then you would have a few options; a) take annual or long service leave, b) take LWOP, c) resign. The company can’t force you to do any of the above (they may suggest it’s in your best interest) but if you are not taking any of those options you will have to do what you are contractually obliged too or face disciplinary action. No conspiracy there just how they would see it.

[NGsim]

I believe ultimately it would be more complex than that or otherwise you’re a casual employee not a full time permanent employee as the concerned individual is.

[Keg]

Rather than jump at shadows, how about we do the right thing here by engaging firstly with your Base Ops managers re your concerns. After that, having taken some notes as to their response to your concerns, engage with the AIPA exec re any ongoing issues.

[Ragnor]

This is 3rd wave , it will be devastating and there will be lay-offs .
The QF group will rebuild slowly and off the street over the next few years , and will be on a if you don’t like it leave contract ! As long as they don’t go broke !!

If you’re LH yeah I’d be bloody worried. SH will come back hard again all this will be knocked on the head by March in time for Easter holidays.

[Green.Dot]

If you’re LH yeah I’d be bloody worried. SH will come back hard again all this will be knocked on the head by March in time for Easter holidays.

Knocked on the head by Easter? Wasn’t that the plan for Xmas?

Are you honestly confident in this not occurring again and states being locked down? Same risk, same result.

[DirectAnywhere]

It was also the plan for the June and September holidays last year.

[Ragnor]

NSW will have it sorted by end of January, another 3 weeks for states to get confidence then we go again like I keep saying this will be here for years just need for rest of Australia to wake up accept it and let Gladys be the covid commander of Australia. Oh and this is a disease that is so deadly that a lot of people don't know they have it or had it. I can vouch from personal experience.

As long as VA are breathing down AJ neck he will not give an inch, Rex well that will be a pile of mess JQ will get Tiger share and what ever Rex thought they had.

As much as I am a fan of Gladys I am finally relived she has made mask mandatory should have been done with the Casula but this will speed up the process now. With that and NSW being the best in the world at this it will be knocked on the head quickly. All the doubters out there just look at what happened with the Avalon, Casuala, Picton etc etc etc NSW the only state capable and has proved it all whilst taking in the most internationals although that is the time bomb that will go off again. WA, like to see you have a go!

Victoria I don't have confidence in and the newly appointed Covid commander what a joke that guy is resign now mate, fancy not having the first line of defense armed and ready to go at a moments notice he should have had an army of testers on STBY ready to go but nope they turned them away due to being overloaded.

NSW tested over 40,000, 45,000, 55,000 60,000 in one day I think 35,000 today no one was sent home yes long waits but all were tested.

[dr dre]

This isn’t getting knocked on the head until the vaccine uptake is at a level to allow herd immunity and widespread removal of restrictions. The current Federal Government plan for that is October.

Of course it could be much, much faster, Israel has already vaccinated over 10% of their population in just 12 days. They are planning to get to the required level to be over the pandemic in March, before any Australian has received a Covid vaccine here.

[Fonz121]

If you’re LH yeah I’d be bloody worried. SH will come back hard again all this will be knocked on the head by March in time for Easter holidays.

At the speed Morrison is moving on a vaccine, we’ll probably be better dealing with vaccinated international pax before the domestic scene sorts itself out. But I guess they still need to determine if vaccinated peeps are contagious.

This whole “we don’t need to move fast on a vaccine as it’s not a big problem for Australia” narrative needs to change.

Edit: Beat me to it Dre

[vhtae]

NSW will have it sorted by end of January, another 3 weeks for states to get confidence then we go again like I keep saying this will be here for years just need for rest of Australia to wake up accept it and let Gladys be the covid commander of Australia. Oh and this is a disease that is so deadly that a lot of people don't know they have it or had it. I can vouch from personal experience.

As long as VA are breathing down AJ neck he will not give an inch, Rex well that will be a pile of mess JQ will get Tiger share and what ever Rex thought they had.

As much as I am a fan of Gladys I am finally relived she has made mask mandatory should have been done with the Casula but this will speed up the process now. With that and NSW being the best in the world at this it will be knocked on the head quickly. All the doubters out there just look at what happened with the Avalon, Casuala, Picton etc etc etc NSW the only state capable and has proved it all whilst taking in the most internationals although that is the time bomb that will go off again. WA, like to see you have a go!

Victoria I don't have confidence in and the newly appointed Covid commander what a joke that guy is resign now mate, fancy not having the first line of defense armed and ready to go at a moments notice he should have had an army of testers on STBY ready to go but nope they turned them away due to being overloaded.

NSW tested over 40,000, 45,000, 55,000 60,000 in one day I think 35,000 today no one was sent home yes long waits but all were tested.

Apologies to the moderators as it’s off topic. Victoria have sequenced all cases back to the initial NSW cluster and have no mystery cases to date. NSW aimed to nip it in the bud by Christmas Day and didn’t.

[dr dre]

This whole “we don’t need to move fast on a vaccine as it’s not a big problem for Australia” narrative needs to change.


Something for management to use their decades of influence gaining in government to push for? Company could offer free transport of the vaccine into and around the nation in exchange for an expedited rollout.

[Ragnor]

Apologies to the moderators as it’s off topic. Victoria have sequenced all cases back to the initial NSW cluster and have no mystery cases to date. NSW aimed to nip it in the bud by Christmas Day and didn’t.


Oh please you really want to play the blame game! Two Victorians started the crossroads outbreak in Sydney by bringing their strain up genomic testing proves this which was announced by John Barilaro 14th July.

The issue is Victoria should be prepared (like all other states) they are not. If you think we can eradicate this and get back to normal pinch yourself and wake up. It’s not going anywhere.

[Green.Dot]

Oh please you really want to play the blame game! Two Victorians started the crossroads outbreak in Sydney by bringing their strain up genomic testing proves this which was announced by John Barilaro 14th July.

The issue is Victoria should be prepared (like all other states) they are not. If you think we can eradicate this and get back to normal pinch yourself and wake up. It’s not going anywhere.

I don’t think anyone is blaming NSW. I certainly am not. I was a big fan of Gladys’ decision making up until this outbreak- I wish she threw every defence (within her control) in the early stages. That free hit was masks, AMA said they should be mandated. You admitted it yourself it was a good move to implement (3 weeks later). Don’t start me on SCG test. I love cricket but WTF?

Would have masks actually made a difference? Who knows, but we won’t die wondering.

Once again, no consistency across the board.

My biggest concern is the incompetence of Vic Govt dealing with another clusterf@“k. Let’s all cross our fingers- most Victorians are justifiably nervous and pissed off that we are in a position of uncertainty again.

[Ragnor]

I agree with Green Dot on all points. Yes mask should have been implemented when Crossroads happened my opinion hindsight is a good thing. I just read an article in the Australian QLD health have done the same, CMO requested citizen to be tested if you had been in Vic they turned out in thousands to be told to go home as it was knock off time 21:00.

What is happening now is what AJ was concerned about end of last yr he can’t run a airline that operates with open/closed borders. Let’s hope drastic measures are not taken with domestic crews.

[blubak]

Oh please you really want to play the blame game! Two Victorians started the crossroads outbreak in Sydney by bringing their strain up genomic testing proves this which was announced by John Barilaro 14th July.

The issue is Victoria should be prepared (like all other states) they are not. If you think we can eradicate this and get back to normal pinch yourself and wake up. It’s not going anywhere.
So, 2700 tests done in Qld yesterday with 76 sites operating,thats less than 40 people per testing site & the qld health minister says people must look around if they get turned away due to no capacity for a test.
Vic tested 22000+ and Nsw over 30000 i believe so in reality,what state isnt prepared??
Easy to criticise but dont just throw it all in 1 direction & like i have said before the hotel quarantine was a complete f up as was the cruise ship debacle in sydney but just maybe some states are flying under the radar right now as the focus is again on the 2 most populated states.
A bit like the 2 people who fled from melb airport the other day-they were confused they say🤔

[Keg]

Victoria tested 22K on Saturday (more than NSW did) but were essentially at capacity.

COVID-19 testing sites across Melbourne closed within an hour of opening yesterday, swamped by thousands of Victorians requiring tests after returning from NSW and further stressed by health staff taking holiday leave.



NSW just had lower demand on Saturday, not capacity issues. I think they did more than 60K in the days before Christmas.

DHHS performing an outstanding job at letting people know what is going on.



Victorian health authorities have been forced to amend a list of potential coronavirus exposure sites after incorrectly listing locations, including one hours away from where it originally said it was.

The Department of Health and Human Services on Saturday published an alert for the Wonga Estate winery in Strathbogie, in Victoria’s northeast.

Later that day, that alert was replaced with one for the same time period but for the Wyanga winery in Lakes Entrance, a five-hour drive on the other side of the Great Dividing Range.



Australian Venue Co chief executive Paul Waterson found out via the media on Saturday afternoon that his European Bier Cafe on Exhibition Street in Melbourne's CBD was an exposure site after a confirmed case visited last week.

"We saw it on The Age website. That was the first we heard about it," he said.

[C441]

So, 2700 tests done in Qld yesterday with 76 sites operating,thats less than 40 people per testing site & the qld health minister says people must look around if they get turned away due to no capacity for a test.
I may well be wrong but not all of those 76 sites offer free testing. Brisbane's major public hospital, RBWH, had long queues on Saturday (when people were sent away at 9:00pm) and Sunday, however friends of ours who returned from country Victoria were able to get a test, at a small cost, at another facility with minimal wait time.

[ANstar]

Apologies to the moderators as it’s off topic. Victoria have sequenced all cases back to the initial NSW cluster and have no mystery cases to date. NSW aimed to nip it in the bud by Christmas Day and didn’t.

NSW also have another cluster that has escaped from hotel quarantine yet no outrage. Imagine if a transport worker in hotel quarantine had let the virus out in Victoria?

[Green.Dot]

NSW also have another cluster that has escaped from hotel quarantine yet no outrage. Imagine if a transport worker in hotel quarantine had let the virus out in Victoria?

Probably no outrage as it hasn’t exploded in to 3 digit figures a day because NSW has their finger on the pulse.

But anything’s possible. If NSW turns in to a high numbers outbreak, businesses beyond the point of no recovery, etc, people will be enraged and be looking for answers, don’t you worry about that :ok:.

Oh and Gladys didn’t blame the average New South Welshman in an initial attempt to cover up the real reason for the outbreak. She isn’t like Dan.

[myshoutcaptain]

Long testing lines and media coverage is why McGowan just throws the key away for 14 days. Protecting his March 13th poll.

If you have been free in the community for 10 days before being told you must now isolate what’s the difference in a mandatory test - isolate until result.

My mate in WA says most of the QF base is in isolation after Mad Marks latest.

[Keg]

Crikey theres some revision of history going on here. The grief at Victoria back in June wasn’t just because Victoria had crap processes that allowed the virus out of HQ with not very significant cases to manage, it was more about the crap process to contact trace and nail down the virus. Here we are a further 6 months down the track and Covid testing centres are shutting shop at 0930 because they’re at their daily capacity. That doesn’t strike me as a very proactive, efficient government.

It would seem though that the discussion about QF Group redundancy numbers and packages is kinda done though?

[NGsim]

I really hope you’re correct Keg (as you often are) but personally I can’t help but think when referring to the entire QF group that the redundancies aren’t finished yet.

[Green.Dot]

Yep agreed- a sh!t tin of revenue during the most lucrative time of the year has been lost. The domestic cash cow has not delivered this time round and management were banking on it.

[Keg]

Yeah, you could be correct NGsim.

Network won’t need to VR crew given they’re still trying to attract both 717 and A320 drivers.

Eastern or Sunnies are probably ‘right sized’ at the moment also.

That leaves JQ and I know very little about their crewing numbers. The only thing I can see them over stocked with would be 787 drivers. I’d also expect their age demographic to be very different tot mainline though so wonder if they’d get a decent uptake of VR if it were offered. I suspect not? They also may decide it’s cheaper/ easier to go CR from the bottom if they need to shed some numbers. If the 787s end up not returning then those crew would mostly find a natural home in the A321ULR which will no doubt be the replacement jet for some of the previous 787 routes.

[Ragnor]

JQ has a very young demographic 40ish 787 captains FOs even younger. If there are any CR at JQ it will be SOs first then 78 crew and it won’t be bottom up on the list, the way it’s in the EA they can do it how they please “Seniority will be a major consideration” I’d guess the 320 crew at this stage will be fine.

[dr dre]

Yep agreed- a sh!t tin of revenue during the most lucrative time of the year has been lost. The domestic cash cow has not delivered this time round and management were banking on it.


Not necessarily. In May last year after this had just started, with Domestic capacity at 5% and International effectively at 0% guidance was released showing cash reserves with flying at that level could last until December 2021:

Qantas Group Market Update (https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/doLLG5ufYkCyEPjF1tpgyw/file/2020HY/Qantas_Group-Market-Update-Increasing-resilience-for-long-term-recovery.pdf)

Now since then we’ve had some increase in domestic travel, not as much as hoped but still more than 5%. I’ll hazard a guess a lot of those tickets bought were full fare as well. We’ve had a strong FIFO market offering additional income. We’ve had government funded IFAM and repatriation flying. Some large corporate customers have switched from VA to QF. Loyalty remains cash flow positive. And we’ve had Jobkeeper extended beyond it’s initial end date. It sounds tough but outsourcing of some jobs will have a positive effect on cashflow too. The saving grace has really been stand down clauses.

Share price is around $5.00 after both the current NSW and Victorian outbreaks, still above the $4.20 it was at the start of November, and the highest at anytime since March. The company still has an investment grade credit rating.

Probably the only large cash burn currently is redundancy payouts, and they’ll mostly be all paid out over the next few months. Something tells me they wouldn’t have paid out all those redundancies unless they were sure cash reserves could lasted far into the future until a vaccine arrives.

So I’d guess the cash burn is now at a position where reserves could last well into 2022. Add to that the reopening today of booking availability for most international services from July 2021. I guess that can’t have been made on a whim, it would have had to have a deeper knowledge of the vaccine rollout plan than what’s being told to the general public as management certainly would know how cautious Australian governments are about outbreaks. And they wouldn’t be looking at re-opening bookings for most international services if they didn’t expect most domestic services to be operating as well.

[krismiler]

Bookings are now opened up for most QF international flights from 1 July.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-reopens-bookings-for-all-international-flights-from-july-2021

Obviously, subject to change but things are looking up.

[wheels_down]

July 1 not even half the nation will have the jab. I was thinking more Q4 of this year.

He did say last year, October of this year and if he is a still largely grounded the cash has run out. I assume major equity raising on the cards because I don’t think we will be seeing much movement until late year.

[blubak]

Crikey theres some revision of history going on here. The grief at Victoria back in June wasn’t just because Victoria had crap processes that allowed the virus out of HQ with not very significant cases to manage, it was more about the crap process to contact trace and nail down the virus. Here we are a further 6 months down the track and Covid testing centres are shutting shop at 0930 because they’re at their daily capacity. That doesn’t strike me as a very proactive, efficient government.

It would seem though that the discussion about QF Group redundancy numbers and packages is kinda done though?
There were 32000 tests in victoria on sunday,i would have thought that was at least a fair if not good number.
Of course the hotel quarantine was crap in june but what was done to fix it has worked & yes us the public paid the price.
We can go on & on criticising govt decisions but in reality overall we are doing pretty well when you look at the numbers coming out of some european countries with population similar to ours.
Its not great that the borders were closed so quickly but when the outbreak in nsw started the vic govt advised people not to go to sydney.
There are many now jumping up & down saying it took too long to close the border so really how do you win.
I really dont care whether the premiers are lib or lab & i have always thought Gladys has done a very good job & although many wont agree i believe Dan has done pretty well down here apart from his monumental f up with quarantine.

[Ragnor]

Yes Dan is doing well 800 dead on his watch, turning ppl away for testing due insufficient staffing seems this guy does not learn from the past.

Yes NSW stuffed up early on Ruby princess I'm sure everyone remembers, they learn from that at least.

So AJ, is he on a fishing expedition to gather interest for a bigger plan on how to manage numbers into 2022, or, does he have better intel than the gov?

[Keg]

Closing Covid testing at 0930 during a pandemic due to excess demand doesn’t classify as doing a ‘good job’. Even more so when you’ve had 8 months to put the processes in place. Even more significantly after having already been caught with you pants down previously. We haven’t even started on the ‘hard border’ locking Victorians in NSW and unable to return home, the 24 hours notice provided, the contrary nature of the advice that previously spoke of Sydney but then extended the hard lock down to all of NSW. Victorian government is a basket case.

[NGsim]

Bookings are now opened up for most QF international flights from 1 July.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-reopens-bookings-for-all-international-flights-from-july-2021

Obviously, subject to change but things are looking up.


Or it’s merely a very easy and cheap method to conduct market research about the level of demand and how that varies by destination

[krismiler]

It generates cash flow as well, pax pay for tickets and QF get to use the money interest free until the flight either operates or gets cancelled and refunded.

With the vaccine now a reality, realistic predictions can now be made regarding a return to something approaching normal.

[galdian]

It generates cash flow as well, pax pay for tickets and QF get to use the money interest free until the flight either operates or gets cancelled and refunded.

With the vaccine now a reality, realistic predictions can now be made regarding a return to something approaching normal.

Domestic - hmmm, maybe.
International - totally different beast, no way.
Just IMHO.

[Fonz121]

Domestic - hmmm, maybe.
International - totally different beast, no way.
Just IMHO.

Depends how the vaccine is going really. If all the vulnerable groups here are vaccinated and only vaccinated pax are carried with some kind of testing done on arrival I don’t see what the issue is. I haven’t seen the schedule but I’m guessing it’s possibly reduced to start, with the aim of ramping up once everyone here has had the jab.

[ANCDU]

“Closing” a testing station in Melbourne doesn’t mean it’s closed all day, it means it’s unsafe to accept more people due to safety reasons ( like cars blocking roads, excessive wait times). These stations are usually re opened a few hours later and continue through the day.
the media gets everyone in a frenzy to get to a station at 5 am before they open at 9, if people got to these so called “closed” testing stations at 5 in the afternoon it’s a 15-20 minute wait, but that’s not newsworthy...from personal experience.
not sticking up for the Vic gov at all, just as is often the case in our industry, the media are selective how they report.

[dr dre]

Depends how the vaccine is going really. If all the vulnerable groups here are vaccinated and only vaccinated pax are carried with some kind of testing done on arrival I don’t see what the issue is. I haven’t seen the schedule but I’m guessing it’s possibly reduced to start, with the aim of ramping up once everyone here has had the jab.

The vaccine will only stop the severity of the the disease, not specifically infection. There’ll still be vaccinated travellers who spread it, but not nearly as much as those with a full blown version of the disease. Eventually with enough herd immunity the virus won’t find anywhere to go and spread won’t be exponential.

There are some at risk groups with weak immunity who can’t be vaccinated successfully so herd immunity will
be crucial to protecting them. But yeah it’s telling how international are iced are planned to begin in July, I thought the vaccine rollout wasn’t going to be completed until closer to year’s end, but management might have more accurate info from the government on when the critical levels will be reached.

[galdian]

I'm somewhat surprised after all that's happened that so many are simply expecting a new vaccine, without the usual testing protocols, on a virus that's already mutating, will be the silver bullet.
Hopefully yes - hell yeah but .....

There's no way the government has any "superior" info to pass on to anyone, they can only go along and react to the successes and failures that get thrown up as we bumble along.

Equally - just like the borders opening and closing on whims - Qantas et al can just as quickly stop selling seats, cash to gain and nothing to lose.
And if flights cancelled - rebook or credits, no probs.
Refund the cash? :D:D:D Not in this lifetime! ;)

[krismiler]

Any form of forward planning requires assumptions to be made and plans are based on this and tweaked as necessary. In the past, computer modeling was reasonably accurate, schedules and fares could be set based on the previous year + or - a bit. Now it's a shot in the dark, no one knows how many people want to fly from Sydney to Hong Kong on the 23 of October and what price they will be willing to pay. The software that adjusts prices based on supply and demand needs altering, bookings could be lost if it sets fares too high based on a last minute rush and people decide not to travel, but revenue gets lost if it fills the aircraft up early with cheap fares in response to low demand as people wait and see.

QF need to start somewhere and getting a few flights going in July, possibly with similar fares to 2019 and adjusting from there seems a reasonable move.

[Keg]

“Closing” a testing station in Melbourne doesn’t mean it’s closed all day...

The day they were closing multiple sites early they did 23K tests in the day. Hardly a big load when you consider that NSW did just under 70K tests in the 24 hours leading up to 8pm on Christmas Eve.

[blubak]

The day they were closing multiple sites early they did 23K tests in the day. Hardly a big load when you consider that NSW did just under 70K tests in the 24 hours leading up to 8pm on Christmas Eve.
70k is a huge number but for the past few days there have been more tests done in vic than nsw,in reality there are always people who will pick the facts they like out of media reports & use them to their advantage.
There were 2700 tests done in qld recently over 70 sites so avg less then 40 per site but the media didnt like that story.
In the act 1 day recently there were about 200 tests done for the day,what a massive result!
I think you will find that most if not all of the hierachy in the testing scenario right now are trying to get as many people tested as possible but like lots of things its very hard to please everyone & achieve a timeframe that everybody likes or is happy with.

[Ragnor]

70k is a huge number but for the past few days there have been more tests done in vic than nsw,in reality there are always people who will pick the facts they like out of media reports & use them to their advantage.
There were 2700 tests done in qld recently over 70 sites so avg less then 40 per site but the media didnt like that story.
In the act 1 day recently there were about 200 tests done for the day,what a massive result!
I think you will find that most if not all of the hierachy in the testing scenario right now are trying to get as many people tested as possible but like lots of things its very hard to please everyone & achieve a timeframe that everybody likes or is happy with.

The issue has never been about who is testing more, well for me anyway Vic and NSW the biggest so should be comparative in numbers. My issue is the capability for a state to handle a spike in testing and cope QLD recent debacle WA has never even tried they think 2000 is a massive haul you would think given what Vic has been through no thanks to DA incompetent leadership that they would be the world leaders in this area the Vic gov have not learnt a thing. Only NSW has proven they can handle this pandemic whilst living as normally as possible yes there have been mess ups but lessons learned. Victoria random rule changes based on nothing, the latest this morning not allowing their own residents to cross not only have we now separated as Australians their own state is turning them away.

[Predator Jock]

I suspect that the QF Head Shed are working on two plans. The one being advertised is the best case scenario - everything tracks towards being able to start flying Internationally from 01 July 21. The other (confidential) plan is the worst case scenario. This takes into account Covid +. The plus? If you hadn't noticed things aren't so great around the world and events even bigger than C-19 may be in this planning mix. China, Iran, US domestic politics - take your pick. I suspect that this plan will be the absolute last ditch attempt to keep Qantas International afloat with a core of International expertise if it all blows over.

I reckon that this second plan would be the sweeping away of all industrial agreements and a selection of a small group of personnel to keep the operation in a sort of hibernation. You can speculate on what that would look like. Perhaps just keeping the 787 due to its youth and legs and 300 pilots. Less? From that work out how many people are required to support them.

With left and right of arc established, as events unfold, management can select boxes from each plan's shelves and apply as necessary. Note that I think that government ownership will also be at play if events approach the worst case situation.

[hoss58]

''With left and right of arc established, as events unfold, management can select boxes from each plan's shelves and apply as necessary. Note that I think that government ownership will also be at play if events approach the worst case situation.[/QUOTE]''


Why would government ownership come into play when the government made it perfectly clear when VA was looking for help "a market lead solution"was the way to go. Not saying that was the wrong response by the way.

Cheers Hoss 58

[Predator Jock]

[QUOTE]Why would government ownership come into play when the government made it perfectly clear when VA was looking for help "a market lead solution"was the way to go. Not saying that was the wrong response by the way./QUOTE]

Fair enough. I personally think the government would not let the 'flag carrier' shrink its international arm past a certain mass.

[FightDeck]

Qantas has already said it won’t come out the other side of the pandemic the same size in international.No airline has.
Around 190 + pilots were identified as Long Term Surplus. They won’t need those numbers for a decade.
Just because a seniority number might be 200 less does not mean anything.That is best case scenario.Even after moving up a few hundred numbers many will not keep their position after a few RINs.
Getting rid of a few people off the bottom in long haul would be a reality.Would only cost QF 26 weeks pay at SO rates.

[Fonz121]

If they were going to use CR, you’d think it would be before everyone who took lwop to avoid CR start coming back in September.

Unless the vaccine somehow turns into an abysmal failure, I really don’t see CR being needed.

[Ragnor]

With the announcement today re vaccine going earlier (February now) which makes me think did AJ know or maybe heard a rumor this could happen hence selling tickets in July?!

I’m sure AJ and co will be formulating a plan and that plan will involve every Domestic pilot. I’m sure every international pilot will be needed there is a void in the Australian market now VA are no longer.

[LostWanderer]

With the announcement today re vaccine going earlier (February now) which makes me think did AJ know or maybe heard a rumor this could happen hence selling tickets in July?!

I’m sure AJ and co will be formulating a plan and that plan will involve every Domestic pilot. I’m sure every international pilot will be needed there is a void in the Australian market now VA are no longer.

It would be wonderful news if they can roll this out on the timeline announced and we can all get back to work again. The US also had a plan to vaccinate huge numbers in a short time frame, last I read at the rate it is actually going at now, it would take them about decade to vaccinate most of the country. I'm sure the Australian roll out plan will be smooth as silk though...

[Heavy Metal]

It would be wonderful news if they can roll this out on the timeline announced and we can all get back to work again. The US also had a plan to vaccinate huge numbers in a short time frame, last I read at the rate it is actually going at now, it would take them about decade to vaccinate most of the country. I'm sure the Australian roll out plan will be smooth as silk though...

If it is to be mostly the Astrazeneca vaccine for Australia, and it is widely available from CSL at refrigerator temperature(-2deg C), can't see why vaccinating the entire country in short order would be much of a big deal at all. I didn't see any queues whilst as many as 18 million people received the flu jab, last year.

27 May 2020
"An additional two million flu vaccines will be available from this week bringing the total number available in 2020 to a record 18 million.This is up from 13.2 million flu vaccines in 2019, 11 million in 2018 and almost 10 million more than the 8.3 million flu vaccines provided in 2017.".
https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/record-flu-vaccines-in-2020-to-protect-australians

[VH-ABC]

What proof is there you’ve had the flu jab though? If it’s a requirement to have some sort of COVID passport stamp for travel, that would add to the logistics compared to the flu?

[maggot]

What proof is there you’ve had the flu jab though? If it’s a requirement to have some sort of COVID passport stamp for travel, that would add to the logistics compared to the flu?
i have a travel vaccination record. Somewhere.
it was a thing for a long time for visiting some parts of the world.

mechanism exists

[C441]

What proof is there you’ve had the flu jab though? If it’s a requirement to have some sort of COVID passport stamp for travel, that would add to the logistics compared to the flu?
Whilst we've rarely had the flu vaccine the past, in order to enter the retirement facility where my Mother-in-Law resides, we were required to show proof of having had the flu vaccine. Three of us had received the vaccine at different centres, but a simple receipt from each, presented at the time, showed the date and the type of vaccine received. I'd be surprised if this information is not available anytime you get this jab.

[krismiler]

IATA are working on a vaccine passport at the moment.

https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/

[kiwi grey]

Whilst we've rarely had the flu vaccine the past, in order to enter the retirement facility where my Mother-in-Law resides, we were required to show proof of having had the flu vaccine. Three of us had received the vaccine at different centres, but a simple receipt from each, presented at the time, showed the date and the type of vaccine received. I'd be surprised if this information is not available anytime you get this jab.

And this works fine in a high trust environment - all that's at stake is your propensity to kill your Grannie, so you have a high incentive to be actually compliant.

Not so much if having a genuine-looking Covid vaccine certificate is needed to allow you to for example: escape the Covid-hotspot hell you are stuck in; and/or gain the DEC position you've been working towards since you were a teenager; and/or complete the PhD that will ensure your and your families financial security for the next twenty years.
In these situations, something you can bodge up with a word processor and a bit of free PDF editor software isn't going to cut the mustard. I'm guessing there might be something like a Visa stuck into your passport with an official stamp.
Of course, in a country where $US100 is a month's wages for a high-paid passport office worker ...

[ruprecht]

Whilst we've rarely had the flu vaccine the past, in order to enter the retirement facility where my Mother-in-Law resides, we were required to show proof of having had the flu vaccine. Three of us had received the vaccine at different centres, but a simple receipt from each, presented at the time, showed the date and the type of vaccine received. I'd be surprised if this information is not available anytime you get this jab.
My stand down job involves me ensuring people have a fluvax. Some print out their immunisation record from mygov, others have a standard letter from their doctor. All of them look like they could be created on Word in about 5 minutes.

It will have to be a lot more secure than that.

[krismiler]

It wouldn't be hard to have something that could be verified online at a government website. A bar code on the vaccine pass which when scanned confirms the validity of the pass and displays a picture of the holder, no more difficult than scanning a boarding pass at an airport autogate.

[SixDemonBag]

My stand down job involves me ensuring people have a fluvax. Some print out their immunisation record from mygov, others have a standard letter from their doctor. All of them look like they could be created on Word in about 5 minutes.

It will have to be a lot more secure than that.

laminated cards at least! Would take at least a trip to Koh san road to get something that legit.

[knobbycobby]

The government said there is no way borders will be open or Australians permitted to travel overseas In July.
Greg Hunt said it was always the end of 2021.
Considering a mutated and more infectious strain exists and has spread globally like the UK strain, they won’t be in a hurry to open borders.
It may even be delayed till 2022.
Other than the IFAM flying, repatriation or Tasman flying there won’t much international flying.
Does not look like there will be much domestic flying either.Border closures look to be in place till the vaccine is established.
Lot of unknowns why qantas would be doing this.Could be revenue.Could be best case scenario as someone said.Could be a way of pushing for extended jobkeeper so they can extend stand down.

[krismiler]

July is 6 months away and vaccination is expected to start in February. A well run campaign could have sufficient numbers of people protected to allow a limited opening up with restrictions and conditions in place. A vaccination certificate and negative test result might suffice for inbound travellers, and could be a requirement for departing the country.

Borders are unlikely to be thrown open on 1 July but there could be an easing of the noose.

[aviation_enthus]

July is 6 months away and vaccination is expected to start in February. A well run campaign could have sufficient numbers of people protected to allow a limited opening up with restrictions and conditions in place. A vaccination certificate and negative test result might suffice for inbound travellers, and could be a requirement for departing the country.

Borders are unlikely to be thrown open on 1 July but there could be an easing of the noose.

“Start” in February is the key word. Pretty sure the Aus Govt plan has the vast majority vaccinated by the end of October at the earliest.

Israel currently has the fastest rollout of anywhere and they can only do 1 million in 12 weeks.

Given the highly conservative choices taken by the state governments at least (not sure the Feds have the same view), I’d say July has ZERO chance of QF doing any international flights. Even at Christmas time my pessimistic view has a 50/50 chance 14 day quarantine will still be in place for a large number of arrivals.

[Ragnor]

Fed Gov plan is to have 4million people done by end of March. Given the cautious approach and planning they’re taking they can’t afford to mess this up. Sco Mo will announce an election some time this yr so this will be apart of his election campaign, the success of the roll out.

[lc_461]

Fed Gov plan is to have 4million people done by end of March. Given the cautious approach and planning they’re taking they can’t afford to mess this up. Sco Mo will announce an election some time this yr so this will be apart of his election campaign, the success of the roll out.

Most definitely - in an election year ScoMo can't really campaign on closing the international border like the state leaders were able to trumpet their excellence in keeping out the great unwashed. WA appears to be doing just that (election in Mar). ScoMo will be judged strongly on the rollout and it's perceived effectiveness from now until then. It is in his best interests for it not to be a clusterf*ck. The federal health department doesn't seem as dazed and confused as some of it's state counterparts.
News suggests most of USA and Europe under emergency protocols are not even coming close to using all of their batch allocations (lots of vials in warehouses not being utilised yet).

We have a chance for the government to really try to get the rollout right. Media suggests they are working with the states and territories right now... I think in this aspect of the pandemic response there is room for cautious optimism.

[OnceBitten]

The other thing to keep in mind is as the vaccine is rolled out and as the percentage of the recipients increases, you might find that the requirement to quarantine will probably change from mandatory hotel to being able to be done at home, this in itself will allow an increase of travel inbound, although probably initially not tourists, more like returning citizens and students. You will then find vaccinated Australians will be able to apply for a permit to leave and travel.
So around July you have the situation crossing over from what we have now to what will become the new new norm for a while until it can be fully opened up, my guess would be about this time next year.
WA will be sometime around 2050. :rolleyes:

Caveat being this is applying commonsense which has been lacking with the current bunch of Australian politicians.

[Wingspar]

I think with four million being vaccinated by March, a July start date for QF might not be far off the mark. The main issue is to vaccinated the vulnerable group ASAP. Get them done and the pressure is off the health system. Anytime after that and it’s icing on the cake.

[Fujiroll76]

So with international fights commencing July 1...whose coming back from LWOP? Where’s Normanton these days - very quiet!!

787 is scheduled for daily

SYD - SFO, LAX, DFW, JNB, LHR, HKG*
PER - LHR
BNE - LAX
MEL - LAX

Did we acquire some extra airframes or something??
Let alone crew.......

[Wingspar]

There’s the three extra airframes stored in California. They haven’t been officially delivered to QF yet.

[maggot]

So with international fights commencing July 1...whose coming back from LWOP? Where’s Normanton these days - very quiet!!

787 is scheduled for daily

SYD - SFO, LAX, DFW, JNB, LHR, HKG*
PER - LHR
BNE - LAX
MEL - LAX

Did we acquire some extra airframes or something??
Let alone crew.......

some 330SOs have already been recalled from LWOP

[SixDemonBag]

So with international fights commencing July 1...whose coming back from LWOP? Where’s Normanton these days - very quiet!!

787 is scheduled for daily

SYD - SFO, LAX, DFW, JNB, LHR, HKG*
PER - LHR
BNE - LAX
MEL - LAX

Did we acquire some extra airframes or something??
Let alone crew.......


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/480x265/giphy_fe924fe6b5732447fbe006f408186913599d30c1.gif

[galdian]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/480x265/giphy_fe924fe6b5732447fbe006f408186913599d30c1.gif

Short, sweet, sadly spot on IMHO. :(

Understand the desire for some for things to settle for the "new normal" but anyone who expects Australia to open up to a pox ridden world on July 1st just to make AJ happy is going to be severely disappointed.

Be grateful if Domestic is anything like a "new normal" by then, International you're just dreaming.

[Keg]

So with international fights commencing July 1...whose coming back from LWOP? Where’s Normanton these days - very quiet!!

787 is scheduled for daily

SYD - SFO, LAX, DFW, JNB, LHR, HKG*
PER - LHR
BNE - LAX
MEL - LAX

Did we acquire some extra airframes or something??
Let alone crew.......

A330 is forecast to take up the BNE-LAX. JNB rumoured to be going via PER also with an A330.

Crew are going to be the problem... particularly 787 and A330 Captains.

[Fujiroll76]

A330 is forecast to take up the BNE-LAX. JNB rumoured to be going via PER also with an A330.

Crew are going to be the problem... particularly 787 and A330 Captains.

Ive heard the same re 330’s filling the void.

To all the Negative Nancy’s
AJ has a plan - There needs to be a starting point for the ramp up “when” it occurs. Will it be July 1? Who knows. Would we have a vaccine if you asked me back in April 2020..who knows?

Fast forward to today and the vaccine rollout is happening. Faster than anyone imagined. It’ll take time to get the uptake required but it’s only a matter of time.

Open the CBT my fellow colleagues 👍🏼

[Chad Gates]

A330 is forecast to take up the BNE-LAX. JNB rumoured to be going via PER also with an A330.

Crew are going to be the problem... particularly 787 and A330 Captains.

Technical Question

Do QF have any of the increased MTOW versions of the A332? Or at least any that can have the increases applied. I think it was increased to something like 237K or similar.

[galdian]

The old saying we all laugh at: " never buy the first of anything...."

You're heralding a new vaccine, development fast tracked and standard protocols diminished if not removed completely....what could possibly go wrong.

AJ can do what he wants - I can only trust that if ScoMo approaching mid year is presented with too many variables for the good of Australia he politely tells AJ to f**k off.

If that happens then you'll have all the returned LWOP/jobkeeper/had a job et al pilots/staff to deal with - but sure AJ has that all under control.:ok:

Hope I'm 100% wrong, just can't see the timeline working and reckon you're herding cats.

[Wingspar]

I say good onya AJ!
These politicians need a good kick up the backside. I mean the whole episode reads like something out of Fawlty Towers.
The only reason, and I mean the only reason, Australia is in a relatively good place is because when things starting going askew they simply closed the borders. It’s akin to amputating an arm to fix an infected finger. Bonehead logic but hey it works.
I’d say AJ has looked at the numbers and said July 1st is a good estimate to start international. Hell he needs revenue to start paying the bills. I don’t blame him. At least by stating this it starts putting the pressure on those who have the responsibility to open the borders ASAP.

[Ragnor]

Need to start somewhere may as well be July 1st a new financial year. AJ in my opinion is doing a good job others I’m sure will disagree. but the sh!t sandwich that has been delivered 2020 and 2021 I can’t think of an airline that’s as strong as QF group at the moment. This is his legacy and when he departs 2023 it’s all he will be remembered for, anything prior will be forgotten and he will want QF group to be bigger and better than ever.

[Keg]

Technical Question

Do QF have any of the increased MTOW versions of the A332? Or at least any that can have the increases applied.

No and yes.



AJ can do what he wants - I can only trust that if ScoMo approaching mid year is presented with too many variables for the good of Australia he politely tells AJ to f**k off.

I’m not sure any of us within Qantas expect to be flying passengers on 1 July. Whatever reasons they’ve used to decide to start selling tickets, actually flying passengers is likely to be lower on the priority list. Perhaps it’s to gauge demand. Perhaps it’s to get a few $$$ in the bank to assist with the ramp up. It’s certainly easier to tell people ‘the government said no, care to slide your booking’ than get bookings for flying in a month’s time when the borders finally open on bugger all notice.


If that happens then you'll have all the returned LWOP/jobkeeper/had a job et al pilots/staff to deal with - but sure AJ has that all under control.:ok:

.

So it’ll be the same in the lead up to 1 July as it is at the moment then?

[galdian]

No and yes.



I’m not sure any of us within Qantas expect to be flying passengers on 1 July. Whatever reasons they’ve used to decide to start selling tickets, actually flying passengers is likely to be lower on the priority list. Perhaps it’s to gauge demand. Perhaps it’s to get a few $$$ in the bank to assist with the ramp up. It’s certainly easier to tell people ‘the government said no, care to slide your booking’ than get bookings for flying in a month’s time when the borders finally open on bugger all notice.



So it’ll be the same in the lead up to 1 July as it is at the moment then?

I'm assuming to ramp up then people currently with second/third employers will have to chuck that in - will those employers take them back again?
Similarly depending on how Australia's travelling economy wise - what's going to be available regards (if any) jobkeeper etc?

If AJ is working on a serious intent and belief that International WILL substantially resume July 1st - time will tell, I'd disagree but hope to hell he's got it right.
If he's just going fishing/floating some ideas - could be a lot of unhappy QF boys and girls left in difficult positions.

But all that is somewhat irrelevant - it won't be AJ's decision whether QF International flies again July 1st it'll be the Feds.
Blame the Feds - first line of attack BUT if AJ's plans were based on blatently over optimistic or downright ludicrous assumptions then even his delightful Irish brogue won't save him from some, maybe many.

[krismiler]

Last year when all this was kicking off we didn’t really expect it to last as long as it has, a few weeks at the most. Not many would have believed that the borders would still be firmly shut well into the new year. Now we are looking 6 months ahead and many people are saying that will be too soon.

Realistically, there will probably be some limited international travel permitted subject to conditions and restrictions. AJ can’t afford to wait indefinitely for a return to normality, and 1 July isn’t too near or too far. It could easily be brought forward or pushed back a bit subject to changing conditions.

Opening up the whole network for bookings is quite reasonable as tickets for the destinations which still can’t be served in the middle of the year can be refunded or rebooked. Leisure travel is more flexible as Fiji can easily replace Bali for example.

Waiting for things to get back to near normal before starting up again will cost the airline significantly as pax will have already purchased tickets on airlines which have maintained services, such as SQ and QR, instead.

[OnceBitten]

It's not just the aviation and tourism sectors that are being smashed due to the border closures, its the universities due lack of international students and fees, farmers not getting workers, just to name a few.
The pressure to open up once the elderly, the vulnerable and essential workers are vaccinated will be to overwhelming from the Business sector for the Government to ignore and could be politically damaging come election time if it is to coincide with their inability to continue to keep things locked up.

[SixDemonBag]

I heard 4-6 a330s will be getting the 4t(?) increase in MTOW signed off FWIW

[Wingspar]

Also keep in mind a 789 seats 236. AJ has pointed out as long as the flight makes one dollar they’ll do it. Now come July when a 789 does SYD-LAX it won’t take too many seats to make that dollar.
I can’t see it being too difficult to achieving that.

[Keg]

I'm assuming to ramp up.....


There are enough crew current(ish) on the A330 fleet that for it to ramp up to even 60% ops wouldn’t take much additional training at all. The 787 would be a bit different but they’ll have enough information in April to know whether or not they need to be ramping up towards 10%, 30%, or 50%.


...then people currently with second/third employers will have to chuck that in - will those employers take them back again?

I suspect that most of us would be able to ‘make do’ on 50% and/or 50% is going to be close to more than what we were making full time on other jobs. Either way, depending on how the ramp up looks, I suspect there will be enough lead time and information available for people to decide if they want to be part of the 50% of the flying, or whether they want to hold off for a bit longer and be assured that the flying will be there to replace their other jobs.

[Fujiroll76]

How’s the 787 SYD base looking??
with the rumour 330 taking the BNE-LAX, I sense some considerable time in the lounge paxing up and down the east coast for the BNE base.

Just as it was pre COVID 😆

[hotnhigh]

How’s the 787 SYD base looking??
Why worry. The amount of flying being dished out to nsw/Syd pilots doesn’t see the need for a Syd base ever again. Brown paper bag anyone?

[jrfsp]

Whats the MTOW they would be able to bump the A330s to? 240t? Would that be enough for LAX-BNE?

[blubak]

Probably in preparation for the 4 oldest to be converted to freighters.....
That will obviously be another game changer,see if it is anywhere near as successful as the 1st a321p2f conversion,what could go wrong.

[Ngineer]

"Last year when all this was kicking off we didn’t really expect it to last as long as it has, a few weeks at the most. Not many would have believed that the borders would still be firmly shut well into the new year. Now we are looking 6 months ahead and many people are saying that will be too soon."

I wasn't expecting to be back at work for the rest of 2020 after my stand-down commenced last year.

And in all honesty, I don't expect things to get back to normal until this flu hype subsides. I doubt the vaccines will open up international boarders whilst there are still traces flaring up in different communities. Health bureaucrats only have a one track mind.

And this whole experience has taught me that politicians will go to any length to stop the spread of any virus, going forward, no matter how dangerous or harmless it may be.

[morno]

I doubt the vaccines will open up international boarders.

Boarder or border?

One sleeps in a bed, one is an imaginary line between countries

[Chronic Snoozer]

Boarder or border?

One sleeps in a bed, one is an imaginary line between countries

Like a river?

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Boarder or border?

One sleeps in a bed, one is an imaginary line between countries


Honestly who cares.....but yeah....thanks Dad.

[Climb150]

Honestly who cares.....but yeah....thanks Dad.

Who cares? Our Ops manager does. If he finds spelling mistakes in your CV or cover letter, straight to the garbage/trash/bin it goes.

[das Uber Soldat]

Who cares? Our Ops manager does. If he finds spelling mistakes in your CV or cover letter, straight to the garbage/trash/bin it goes.
I'll keep that in mind should I desire a job flying a piston single in the middle of bum**** nowhere.

In the meantime, we all know what the guy meant so this whole circus of tears wasn't required. But i hope it made those involved feel important.

[Green.Dot]

Well it is a prestigious badge for some


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/611x907/d7a57e87_4d7b_452f_81d1_584a5cd7ba8e_573d4dd8861a84b6dd75342 ee4f7fca5e84c29d1.jpeg

[Buster Hyman]

They're watching & waiting....

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1022x651/68d2b2842388fc7ee085be3b3f2da630_e88daab10b5bbc8595f08145e1a 6e054328d6b58.jpg

[Climb150]

I'll keep that in mind should I desire a job flying a piston single in the middle of bum**** nowhere.

In the meantime, we all know what the guy meant so this whole circus of tears wasn't required. But i hope it made those involved feel important.
We fly 73s and 76s but thanks for your insight.

[Capt Fathom]

We fly 73s and 76s but thanks for your insight.

So flying light twins in the middle of nowhere! :E

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Who cares? Our Ops manager does. If he finds spelling mistakes in your CV or cover letter, straight to the garbage/trash/bin it goes.

well your ops manager is clearly a moron

[morno]

Honestly who cares.....but yeah....thanks Dad.

Honestly, it’s not hard to spell correctly. But yeah, thanks pal

[Climb150]

well your ops manager is clearly a moron
Oh really? 30 years of flying widebody and he is a moron? Checking people's spelling is not only a good way to assess attention to detail, but also gives an idea if the person is able to use all tools at hand to do the job better. Spelling mistakes on pprune when writing on a smart phone or tablet is par for the course but anyone thinking that nobody cares when writing for business or doing a job app is wrong.

[Tucknroll]

Hi Climb150

Let’s hope your ops manager doesn’t ever get you to bite the bullet.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x351/786207cf_af69_4b53_a7da_907f48b94682_c46cac35dee0ff61fcb4903 80e11cbd82312e824.jpeg

[Ragnor]

Some ppl have a lot of time on their hands!

[Climb150]

Hi Climb150

Let’s hope your ops manager doesn’t ever get you to bite the bullet.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x351/786207cf_af69_4b53_a7da_907f48b94682_c46cac35dee0ff61fcb4903 80e11cbd82312e824.jpeg
You have to explain that to me. Break it down real simple.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Oh really? 30 years of flying widebody and he is a moron? Checking people's spelling is not only a good way to assess attention to detail, but also gives an idea if the person is able to use all tools at hand to do the job better. Spelling mistakes on pprune when writing on a smart phone or tablet is par for the course but anyone thinking that nobody cares when writing for business or doing a job app is wrong.

30 years of flying wide body ........oh......

Stop embarrassing yourself.

[Ragnor]

Our Ops manager does. If he finds spelling mistakes in your CV or cover letter, straight to the garbage/trash/bin it goes.


I am no English expert, but, someone better call 150 flight ops manager have him/her/they terminated for their spelling mistake and misuse of the English language. That could result in canceling the scenic flight over the Great Australian bight today.

[Climb150]

30 years of flying wide body ........oh......

Stop embarrassing yourself.
What are you talking about? I didn't say I did. You realise I don't live in Australia anymore. Thank God I got away from this backwater mentality.

[das Uber Soldat]

What are you talking about? I didn't say I did. You realise I don't live in Australia anymore. Thank God I got away from this backwater mentality.
Any second now he's going to figure it out. Aaaaaaaany second now.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

[QUOTE=Climb150;10968087]What are you talking about? I didn't say I did. You realise I don't live in Australia anymore. Thank God I got away from this backwater mentality.[/QUOTE

Say hi to your ops manager for me

[Fonz121]

Wrap it up kids.

[maggot]

Wrap it up kids.
good life advice in general

[Climb150]

I'm glad Dad Uber and KZ Kiwi can take a post made by someone and turn it into an attack. Well done guys, I'm sure you are a pleasure to fly with.

[das Uber Soldat]

I'm glad Dad Uber and KZ Kiwi can take a post made by someone and turn it into an attack. Well done guys, I'm sure you are a pleasure to fly with.
Sorry mate, god knows you should be free to lecture us all about how important of all things spelling is, on an anonymous internet forum, and how critical it is to our careers. I've always felt that people who don't know the difference between 'bite' and 'bight' are in a particularly strong position to criticize others on matters of spelling and grammar.

I personally feel it was an insightful and significant addition to this thread, about QF Group careers, and in no way worthy of being criticized as a pointless triviality that didn't affect a solitary soul.

Let these heartfelt words of sorrow dry your salty tears, and forever know how worthy you are to us all, here, in inferior aviation land.

Can we get back on topic now, or did I use a split infinitive somewhere?

[dr dre]

Can we get back on topic now

As the new year is here and all managers should be back at work any indications of how things will pan out this year with return to work? It looks like those on long term stand downs will be undertaking sim training to ensure not too many critical skills are lost.

[Fonz121]

20 repatriation flights just announced.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-16/repatriation-flights-stranded-australians-coronavirus-government/13064006

[NGsim]

I'm glad Dad Uber and KZ Kiwi can take a post made by someone and turn it into an attack. Well done guys, I'm sure you are a pleasure to fly with.

As only one member of these forums can spell, it looks like das will be changing his username to Dad. Your Op’s manager weeps.

[dr dre]

20 repatriation flights just announced.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-16/repatriation-flights-stranded-australians-coronavirus-government/13064006

Any info on which airline/s will be contracted?

[Climb150]

Enjoy your echo chamber.

[Beenherelonger]

I recently heard a rumour that QF have put together a business case to bring ALL of the A380’s back into service. The rumour is they will use them on short haul routes (might even be flying each one once a week) as it’s close to cost neutral compared to the maintenance costs of having them stored. Has anyone heard similar?

[Fujiroll76]

I recently heard a rumour that QF have put together a business case to bring ALL of the A380’s back into service. The rumour is they will use them on short haul routes (might even be flying each one once a week) as it’s close to cost neutral compared to the maintenance costs of having them stored. Has anyone heard similar?

Not a chance.

[C441]

Only if the overall costs vs. benefit outcome is a dollar or more better than any other aircraft in the fleet…..

[lc_461]

Another BNEA320 handle?

[Chris2303]

Another BNEA320 handle?

Which one?

[goodonyamate]

Which gates/aprons can handle an a380?

[dr dre]

That rumour has as much chance of happening as them bringing the Super Constellation back onto scheduled flights. I hear it has a super low
fuel burn.....

[Heavy Metal]

I recently heard a rumour that QF have put together a business case to bring ALL of the A380’s back into service. The rumour is they will use them on short haul routes (might even be flying each one once a week) as it’s close to cost neutral compared to the maintenance costs of having them stored. Has anyone heard similar?

Nice one, Half the A330's are parked locally, with similar expenses. 8/10 for humour. 2/10 for originality.

[maggot]

Far fetched but the was some ops talk for them due to maint procedure costs. Doubt it will happen

[Iron Bar]

All A380’s - no

All A380 crew - yes

[dr dre]

All A380’s - no

All A380 crew - yes

Even if that was to occur there's still quite a few CPTs and FOs left, far more than what would be needed to throw them on a a handful of domestic sectors every week for currency. In addition to the many SOs who would not be needed until substantial international flying occurs.

However there is a thought that the 350 could be a factor sometime after this year, so maybe getting a core of the 380 pilots back and operational to be able to allow easier transition to the 350 could be a possibility?

I strongly doubt the majority of 380 crew will be stood up and operational until the international network is fully re-established. But a few trainers could be stood up later in the year to allow the fleet to maintain a level of currency. The 787 and 330 have been flying intermittently all this time and still most on those fleets will need proficiency training. None of the 747 or 380 pilots have been included in that program as of yet.

[Overspeed1]

The only 380 rumour I’ve heard that has any merit is that apparently engineering have been asked to cost a return to service for 6 of them in a year or so from now. Don’t have a figure, but word is the sum is eye watering. Apparently if you don’t swing the gear up and down for a few years airbus insist on some fairly heavy maintenance. The only thing that remotely balances it is that they own them outright so no capex on brand new planes and they’ll have 6 spare parts bins to plunder which should lower the maintenance costs for the remainder of the aircraft life. Who knows which way they’ll go with it.

[maggot]

Even if that was to occur there's still quite a few CPTs and FOs left, far more than what would be needed to throw them on a a handful of domestic sectors every week for currency. In addition to the many SOs who would not be needed until substantial international flying occurs.

However there is a thought that the 350 could be a factor sometime after this year, so maybe getting a core of the 380 pilots back and operational to be able to allow easier transition to the 350 could be a possibility?

I strongly doubt the majority of 380 crew will be stood up and operational until the international network is fully re-established. But a few trainers could be stood up later in the year to allow the fleet to maintain a level of currency. The 787 and 330 have been flying intermittently all this time and still most on those fleets will need proficiency training. None of the 747 or 380 pilots have been included in that program as of yet.
330/350...

[Spring_water]

How many 380s in LAX? Will they use these or 789s to fly Aussie team to Tokyo for Olympics. 450 odd team of athletes. Coaches and support staff on top.

[Green.Dot]

How many 380s in LAX? Will they use these or 789s to fly Aussie team to Tokyo for Olympics. 450 odd team of athletes. Coaches and support staff on top.

Is this a serious question? You really think carrying the Olympic party in one aeroplane will be part of their decision making to bring the Dugong back?

[Spring_water]

Is this a serious question? You really think carrying the Olympic party in one aeroplane will be part of their decision making to bring the Dugong back?

Not in the long term. But they maybe holding one or two aircraft for this purpose. Some flying that will come for the 380.

Eventually they will need the heavy metal. In those peak periods (Xmas) QF have up to seven services out of LAX.

[PW1830]

Management would not be doing their job if they did not consider all options however looney at first sight - lateral thinking can produce solutions.
Interesting rumours originating from the emptiers of waste paper bins have been around always.

[Buster Hyman]

Knowing AJ, he's probably trying to do a number on Airbus. Buy back some of our 380's & we'll place the Sunrise 350 orders.

[C441]

How many 380s in LAX?
Two. I can't remember if they're among the half dozen refurb'ed or not.
Buy back some of our 380's & we'll place the Sunrise 350 orders.
That's probably closer to the mark.

[FightDeck]

A380 crew told me who listened on the webinar that only 3 hulls need to go to LAX or Abu Dhabi soon to get checks and a gear service otherwise they turn into coke cans.
They then go back to the desert to be stored.Some management pilots will prob do the three flights.
3-6 380s to return is what I heard .And 2023 is the return date Qantas claimed on webinar. 2 years away at least. But who says they even return? Red Q was going to happen and did not.Jetstar Hong Kong was going to happen and didn't.The company minion was claimed to have said the 787 will take all the 380 flying for a number of years due to aircraft being more fuel efficient and the load being more commercially suited to the 787.
All bull**** unless it actually happens.

[Wingspar]

The only thing going for the 380 is it has First class.(At least some of them).
When QF see a demand for it then back they come.
Having said that if they don’t come back by next year then forget it.
That being the case Busters idea would seem to be logical.
If I remember correctly I think AJ said they’ll revisit Sunrise at the end of this year.
Additional 350’s with First class......
interesting?

[blubak]

The only thing going for the 380 is it has First class.(At least some of them).
When QF see a demand for it then back they come.
Having said that if they don’t come back by next year then forget it.
That being the case Busters idea would seem to be logical.
If I remember correctly I think AJ said they’ll revisit Sunrise at the end of this year.
Additional 350’s with First class......
interesting?
All 12 have 1st class,the reconfigured ones had a refresh of 1st class(nothing major).
The 6 reconfigured hulls did not all have heavy maint checks so no guarantee that the 6 that return to flying(if indeed 6 ever return) will be pre or post reconfig or just the best combination for the lowest cost.

[Keg]

They’re fully written down. The only ‘cost’ of them now is how much it takes to get them back flying again.

If there is demand in a couple of years, they’ll return in line with demand. If demand is still subdued then they won’t. Pretty simple really.

The only real crystal ball gazing in this equation is will demand return on SYD-LAX, MEL-LAX, SIN-LHR to justify an A380. I reckon in 2-3 years time the demand will be there. That’s six jets right there.

Of course, where does the A350 fit into this? Who freaking knows. May end up running a 787 between SIN and LHR whilst an A350 goes direct from the east coast. The Kangaroo route is the only one that I can see is complicated by the A350. LAX certainly isn’t given the proposed config of the ULH A350s QF is considering.

Though even something like ADL-LAX could become a thing for a 787 or A350 given the config- probably the 787 given the A350 is supposed to have P/C and I can’t see there being demand for that out of ADL. Perhaps SYD-LAS an option for a 240ish seater as well. The only thing that would see the A380 not return is if QF decide to increase hull numbers and go point to point into some of these secondary routes.

[Lookleft]

The only thing that would see the A380 not return is if QF decide to increase hull numbers and go point to point into some of these secondary routes. That was Boeing's prediction for the fate of 4 engine designs when the A380 was first announced by Airbus.

[Street garbage]

I recently heard a rumour that QF have put together a business case to bring ALL of the A380’s back into service. The rumour is they will use them on short haul routes (might even be flying each one once a week) as it’s close to cost neutral compared to the maintenance costs of having them stored. Has anyone heard similar?

Welcome to PPrune, Sir Richard, lovely of you to grace us with your presence.

[Going Boeing]

https://simpleflying.com/hibernating-an-airbus-a380/

This article gives an indication of some of the maintenance that A380’s required while stored. It obviously adds up to many man hours and it would be good to know if Qantas is paying for this maintenance on all 12 of their A380’s or just the 6 refurbished ones or none of them - that would give a strong indication of what their long term plans are.

[krismiler]

It would make sense to preserve the newest, refurbished aircraft as even the best case probably won’t see all of the A380s returning. Keep 6-8 of the best ones in flying condition and use the rest for spares. Even if you err on the low side it wouldn’t matter as if the A380 could be used profitably on a route it wouldn’t be essential to have one, and a different aircraft would probably make more money.

[Silverado]

The A380's need 3 things to bring them up to date.

1. Landing gear change
2. 12 year heavy maintenance check
3. Interior refurbishment

Want to guess how many of them have all 3?

[SixDemonBag]

The A380's need 3 things to bring them up to date.

1. Landing gear change
2. 12 year heavy maintenance check
3. Interior refurbishment

Want to guess how many of them have all 3?

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/480x366/giphy_42646f1942a130c2a1dacb9b6cfd549f1d2eb2cc.gif

[Keg]

6 are re-furbed and I think some of them have the 12 year check also. Not sure how many

I’m not sure if the gear needs to be replaced or just needs to be swung on the ground before it can be put back into service. It probably means a gear down hop across the hills from Victorville to LAX when the time comes to get it going again. The good news is that will count as a recency sector to get someone back up to speed.

[kiwi grey]

Simple Flying is reporting "Qantas CEO Refuses To Rule Out The A380’s Return"
----- quote -----
Speaking today at EuroControl‘s Aviation StraightTalk Live, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce refused to rule out a return to service for the Australian flag carrier’s A380 fleet. He stated “We do think, if you look at the Qantas network, there are going to be opportunities to deploy those aircraft.”
----- end quote -----
So he's saying that some of them might come back.

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?

[1A_Please]

Simple Flying is reporting "Qantas CEO Refuses To Rule Out The A380’s Return"
----- quote -----
Speaking today at EuroControl‘s Aviation StraightTalk Live, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce refused to rule out a return to service for the Australian flag carrier’s A380 fleet. He stated “We do think, if you look at the Qantas network, there are going to be opportunities to deploy those aircraft.”
----- end quote -----
So he's saying that some of them might come back.

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?
IN theory, yes but in practice, no. You can't stand down people forever and effectively starve them out of the business. At some point, someone will put forward a constructive dismissal claim against QF and will probably succeed. When that happens, QF will have no choice but to make these positions redundant and pay out the affected staff.

[ruprecht]

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?

Precisely.

I think Qantas are trying to ‘run down the clock’ here. By deferring the announcement on the fate of the A380, they are hoping to keep the crew stood down under the assumption that they’re coming back someday.

My gut feeling? The A380 isn’t coming back, and a RIN will be run when the demise of the A380 is announced in 2023.

[Telfer86]

There won't be any retraining of A380/747 crew to other types , displacements of those less senior on 330/787 - it won't happen

There is a lot of luck that as to where one is placed when Covid hit , those who just upgraded to SH lhs/rhs win

The professional SO/FO cohorts on LH lose , especially those on the 380/747

Don't think CR will come to those at top of LH list on 380 etc, there aren't going to be any 100 week payouts

Possibly another VR , that will be exactly the same as last time

Maybe a CR from bottom of list before August this year , won't affect those who took lwop - that's 250 there

Coupled with retirements , loss of medical , VR that will get numbers down to somewhere where they need to be

International at zero % right now & will likely be same number in 12 months

Very challenging & unfortunate for everyone but if Brendan Murphy says he doesn't like to predict more than three
months out , how an earth is anyone at QF going to know more than Murphy ?

[OnceBitten]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Please don’t feed the troll.

[The_Equaliser]

There is currently a globally declared pandemic in full flight through most of the world. Medical and political thought indicates that international travel is dead for 2021 at least. The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment. They may need to read the room.

[Tucknroll]

There is currently a globally declared pandemic in full flight through most of the world. Medical and political thought indicates that international travel is dead for 2021 at least. The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment. They may need to read the room.

Which rooms are you referring to? The rooms in QCC full of managers and office workers on full pay? Or the rooms in the terminal which are now filled with outsourced workers? Perhaps you might be referring to the flight training rooms at Network, which are full of new hire short haul crew while mainline pilots are stood down unpaid?

I think the new Exec at AIPA will be more than capable of reading the room just fine. Hell, they may even listen to the room full of other CoM members.

[dr dre]

The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment.

They really don’t have any options. EBA negotiations are years away. They can attempt to challenge the legal status of the stand downs, but the ALAEA tried and failed. Courts found stand downs can occur until the pandemic is over.

What else can they do, pressure the government for more assistance? Run a media campaign? Any unauthorised industrial action will be met with a ton of bricks from a conservative government and business oriented FWA.

[Transition Layer]

They really don’t have any options. EBA negotiations are years away. They can attempt to challenge the legal status of the stand downs, but the ALAEA tried and failed. Courts found stand downs can occur until the pandemic is over.

What else can they do, pressure the government for more assistance? Run a media campaign? Any unauthorised industrial action will be met with a ton of bricks from a conservative government and business oriented FWA.

When is the pandemic “over”? Please do tell!

At some point between now and then, there needs to be a gradual return to full or part-time employment for all QF pilots. It’s not a sudden flick of a switch.

[Fonz121]

“Theoretically speaking, an infection becomes endemic if on average each infected individual transmits it to one other person. In other words, when the reproduction number (https://theconversation.com/how-to-model-a-pandemic-134187) (R) = 1. In comparison, during an epidemic when the spread of the disease is increasing, R is more than 1, and when the spread is decreasing through control measures or population immunity, R is less than 1.”




https://theconversation.com/covid-19-will-probably-become-endemic-heres-what-that-means-146435

[kiwi grey]

I think Qantas are trying to ‘run down the clock’ here. By deferring the announcement on the fate of the A380, they are hoping to keep the crew stood down under the assumption that they’re coming back someday.

My gut feeling? The A380 isn’t coming back, and a RIN will be run when the demise of the A380 is announced in 2023.

And the longer the story (possibly already thought to be a fiction) that the A380 will be back can be run, the longer the expensive effects of the RIN can be averted

[dr dre]

When is the pandemic “over”? Please do tell!


When it no longer qualifies as one. It’s fluid, depends on levels of strain of health systems, amount of restrictions on movement, levels of immunisation etc. On an international scale it won’t be until sufficient levels of immunisation are reached, the situation is mixed, even some first world countries haven’t immunised to a great extent.

It’s not just the status of the pandemic, the Federal Court in the ALAEA case found four factors (https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2020/2020fca1428) which triggered the stand downs:

(i) the collapse in passenger travel;
(ii) measures implemented domestically and internationally to restrict movement;
(iii) the increasing concern that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be sustained; and
(iv) uncertainty as to how long the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would last,

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

[ScepticalOptomist]

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

What rubbish - pre pandemic, aviation was in a boom time - billion dollar profits etc. Can’t tell me any court in the land would say until that returns, stand downs are justified / legal.

Getting a little tired of the rhetoric.

[Props _are_for_boats]

What rubbish - pre pandemic, aviation was in a boom time - billion dollar profits etc. Can’t tell me any court in the land would say until that returns, stand downs are justified / legal.

Getting a little tired of the rhetoric.

wish there was a like button

[Keg]

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and it’ll be a moot point anyway.

[Angle of Attack]

They will keep stand downs ongoing until they feel like it, that’s the unfortunate truth. So if your on a Longhaul fleet 3 more years until constant Stand up. You might not agree to it but unless your union challenges it that’s what will happen! Meanwhile contract companies will employ to take Domestic Services 😂

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and it’ll be a moot point anyway.
You clearly haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in short haul.

[Keg]

We saw in November and December that demand returned very quickly. Of course the snap border closures just prior to Christmas have had an adverse impact on sentiment with people concerned they’ll be locked out of their state with only hours notice. Those sorts of things are still within what FWA have said are legit reasons for stand down.

Internationally a post vaccine world with open borders is a very different context to what is occurring domestically at the moment.

As an aside I think the forecast is for all 737 crew to be stood up by about April/ May? (Dependent on state borders remaining open of course). Not sure. Missed that webinar earlier in the week.

[Ragnor]

The real test will be school holidays March/April hopefully the vaccine roll out is in full swing. The issue at the moment is confidence, there is none. JQ seen demand sky rocket in Nov/Dec now everything is open again the traveling public are sitting on their hands and the schedule is the same with no increase in sight.

All the talk about stand up, being busy again is all a dream at the moment, vaccine needs to start happening but I fear it could be to late for some. CR is sure to happen at QF, JQ and soon wether from the top middle or bottom I don’t know but it’s going to happen.

[DirectAnywhere]

As an aside I think the forecast is for all 737 crew to be stood up by about April/ May? (Dependent on state borders remaining open of course). Not sure. Missed that webinar earlier in the week.

Initial forecast for all crew stood up was Sep 2020, then Dec 2020, then Feb 2021 now April/ May 2021. There's a pattern developing here and with ongoing quarantine failures, border closures and now the destruction of traveller confidence from repeated, no-notice border closures, I don't see it changing anytime soon.

[George Glass]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Please don’t feed the troll.

Yeah , but show me where he’s wrong .

[krismiler]

My money is on some limited international travel around July when most Aussies will have had the vaccine. Allowing vaccinated travellers with negative COVID test results in and out of Australia will probably be an acceptable risk if data gathered over the next few months provides good news. It won't be back to normal, a handful of detinations with smaller aircraft at best but hopefully there will be a start.

Australia can afford to wait and see as it is less dependant on international travellers than countries such as Thailand. It can sit in isolation at the end of the world as it has done for thousands of years and watch while other countries take the first steps.

[Fonz121]

Australia can afford to wait and see as it is less dependant on international travellers than countries such as Thailand.

Tourism is (was) Australia's fourth largest export accounting for just over 8% of all export earnings before everything went south. It even overtook coal for a while there. This may become apparent at the end of March. The theory that we can 'afford to wait' is undone every time we shut down a whole state for a single case. People who haven't had their lives inconvenienced by more than a mask and working from home, which is most, would probably agree with you though. I guess that's the PR problem the rest of us have.

[krismiler]

Tourism in 2019 made up 3.1% of Australia’s GDP and there were 9.4 million international visitors, Bangkok had nearly 23 million. To some extent, international arrivals have been replaced by domestic tourists unable to travel overseas however they don’t spend as much money or stay as long. With Australia being a long way from anywhere and relatively expensive to get to, those who visit tend to be higher yielding tourists.

Undoubtedly, COVID is many times worse than the pilots strike of 1989, however Australia is a relatively wealthy country with a high degree of self sufficiency and is better placed to isolate itself. Places such as Phuket and Bali are totally dependent on international visitors and the effects have been devastating. Businesses and hotels have been closing down en mass and the streets are like a ghost town. There are few replacement jobs available for those affected, and they were living close to the breadline anyway. Thailand and Indonesia can’t afford a comprehensive welfare system and the situation is dire.

Australia will probably be one of the last places to open up.

[Climb150]

Krismiller,
Alice Springs, Cairns and the Gold Coast are almost completely dependant on tourism. When there is no tourism there is no economy. Wealthy country or not its not like Sydney where you can probably find alternative employment.

Getting unemployment may keep you from starving but it won't help a business stay afloat. There seems to be a belief that when the tourists return everything will go back to normal. Many hotels will not reopen and nor will many small businesses. At least 6 local businesses near me in suburban Melbourne remained closed after lockdown and we have never had to rely tourism at all. How will a tourist dependant business cope?

The USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated by mid year and International travel between them (and many popular tourist destination in Asia) should be near 50% of pre covid numbers.

Im not saying Australia should throw its doors open right now but you must start vaccinating soon to have any hope of being ready for the recovery. I fear the hide away mentality will cost Australia dearly in the long term when people decide to travel to other places instead.

[cynphil]

Climb150......I don’t know how you get the view that the USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated ​​​​​​ by mid year???

[Climb150]

Climb150......I don’t know how you get the view that the USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated ​​​​​​ by mid year???
When I say fully vaccinated I mean everyone who wants one gets one. The Australian govt thinks that vaccinating half the population is sufficient so maybe only half is full? When I said Europe I meant Western Europe. Usa vaccinated 23 million people in the last 4 weeks and the rate of vaccinations is increasing rapidly. The UK has vaccinated 10 million people in 8 weeks, France and Germany about 2 million a piece.

[krismiler]

Australian, with a population of 25 million has had 900 COVID deaths.
UK, with a population of 66 million has had 111 000.
USA, with a population of 328 million has had 462 000.

Australia locked down early and tightly, where as the USA/UK had partial lockdowns and some restrictions which were enforced to varying degrees. The results speak for themselves. The UK is back on lockdown for the third time and vaccination is a race against time to reduce the spiraling death toll. Australian has had hotspots and flare ups but life goes on.

One of the best examples of coping with a pandemic is Singapore which has a population of 6 million yet only suffered 29 deaths. The city state locked down hard and regulations were enforced with a draconian efficiency which would have put the Gestapo to shame. However this strategy worked, though it might not be acceptable in a liberal western democracy with a strong emphasis on individual rights.

Hopefully borders can start to open around mid year when sufficient numbers of people have been vaccinated and the pandemic downgrades to an epidemic.

[krismiler]

The Economist Intelligence Unit has made predictions regarding vaccination levels.

https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/

Having people in wealthy countries vaccinated is what will have most effect on the recovery. To put it bluntly, having Europeans, Japanese and Americans able to travel will speed up the opening of borders. Vaccinating people in developing countries who don’t travel anyway will have least effect.

Looking at the map in the link, important markets for Australia could be available towards the end of this year with an increasing number next year.

[cynphil]

I think this pandemic will be around for a few more years before it is downgraded to an epidemic......the whole world is involved and to think that this will happen by mid year....is a bit of wishful thinking!!

[Ollie Onion]

According to Bloomberg, it will take a further 7 years for the world to return to the same freedoms we had pre-covid given the current expected rates of vaccination. Obviously elements of travel and tourism will return in the shorter term but being realistic it will be years for all past Qantas markets to be available. Greg Foran started yesterday it will take a MINIMUM of 10 years from now for Air NZ to reach its pre-covid size.

[krismiler]

Most of QF's international destinations are are in countries which are expected to have widespread vaccine coverage by mid next year and Australia will be seen as a safe destination. Having large parts of Africa, South America and Central Asia unvaccinated won't make much difference. Europe - USA travel could resume later this year with Australia added soon afterwards. Direct flights from the east coast to the US are possible and SIN/HKG will be safe stops en route to Europe.

Travel bubbles proved too fragile but vaccine bubbles might be possible.

[galdian]

So exactly which unproven, untested, protocol minimised vaccine are we talking about that's going to sort out the virus in one mighty stroke?
From which previously and not so long ago pox riden countries, using the above various and different vaccines, will Australia accept travellers from?

What will be the requirements on arrival - a test/no test, quarantining short term or long term, you have a certificate (real or forged, can you tell the difference?) so just walk out of the terminal and be a tourist?

What happens when a new variant pops up that those already allowed into the country may have?
Sorry, questioned already answered - the magic, untested, infallible vaccines will take care of that....until they don't.
However you view it, whether luck or better judgement Oz overall has come through better than many other countries/continents and that's just going to be compromised and thrown away because of these "magical vaccines".

My bewilderment level at those who believe (wish?) for any significant International opening by the end of the year varies between wishful thinking to delusional.
F**k I hope I'm wrong!

[ExtraShot]

According to Bloomberg, it will take a further 7 years for the world to return to the same freedoms we had pre-covid given the current expected rates of vaccination

That article in particular I believe is talking about if current rates were to be maintained, not Expected rates. Current rates won't be maintained, as bureaucracy, manufacturing and distribution issues are sorted through the pace will no doubt pick up, most particularly in Western Countries.
From the article: "With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace..."

It'll be a little while before we are back to normal but the catastrophism is unnecessary (though not unexpected from the press these days), and unhelpful to those who might be having a hard time of things. In a separate article Bloomberg is talking of a return to international travel in 2023, so really, they have no idea and are trying to sell newspapers.

Things won't be back to the pre-pandemic normal quickly, but provided the emerging evidence from the Israeli vaccine experience is replicated across the rest of the world, the probability should be they will start improving soon.

[dr dre]

So exactly which unproven, untested, protocol minimised vaccine are we talking about that's going to sort out the virus in one mighty stroke?

The vaccines aren’t untested, they’ve gone through the same strict phase trials as any other vaccine with the usual gaps due to the need to beg for funding for each trial overcome by the massive amount of funding injected into the development process.

There’s clear real world data now proving the vaccine is effective and dramatically reducing the effects of the virus.

The CMO last week hinted at a return to international travel in the second half of this year. Whilst the company’s July 1 prediction may be a bit premature, it may not be far from the truth.

[krismiler]

QF are in a much better position than EK. A substantial part of EKs route network is badly affected by COVID, will be delayed in getting the vaccine and DXB isn’t a virus free transit stop. Also, their aircraft are too big for the numbers of pax that will be traveling initially.

If the vaccine proves effective, direct USA flights could resume and Singapore is a safe en route stop for London. Japan and South Korea could be available around the end of the year. China might be possible with restrictions. The B787 and A330 are well suited to the lower numbers travelling.

Australia has coped well with COVID and with much of the world likely to remain isolated, it could be an attractive destination for vaccinated travellers from wealthy countries.

The next few months are important in determining how effective the vaccines are and what they actually do. The holy grail is one that prevents infection and transmission. We will find out how long they are effective for and if they protect against the new variants.

I’m now vaccinated and expect this to be an annual event for the foreseeable future. Next years dose will almost certainly be improved as new data becomes available.

COVID isn’t going away anytime soon, but it can be brought down to a manageable level like AIDS has been.

[Green.Dot]

I’m now vaccinated

Before Sunfish too. He won’t be happy.

[blow.n.gasket]

Good luck !

[dr dre]

Article about yesterday’s events:

The stress of the long-running COVID-19 crisis has taken its toll on the Qantas pilots’ union, with the entire executive resigning en masse after learning of moves to replace them.

It’s understood the Australian and International Pilots Association executive was targeted by their own committee of management, after growing discontent among members.

The problems stemmed from dissatisfaction with the executive’s handling of the long haul enterprise agreement and uncertainty over hundreds of pilots’ jobs in the pandemic.

A380 captain Murray Butt was installed as the new AIPA president, just over two years after he was replaced in the top job by 737 pilot Mark Sedgwick.
Captain Butt said there was much concern about the previous executive’s handling of the long haul pay deal, that saw Qantas go over AIPA’s head to put an offer directly to pilots last year.

“(Pilots) had to make a decision based on the offer of backpay which for a lot of them was a big consideration given the stand downs that were occurring at that time,” Capt Butt said.

“As a result the enterprise agreement was endorsed quite strongly. We will never know if that was out of satisfaction with the deal.”

He admitted the stress of the current pandemic was taking its toll on many pilots, with A380 pilots in particular unsure of when they would work again.
Although Qantas Group chief executive Alan Joyce has insisted the superjumbos will return to service, that was unlikely to occur until demand returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, which could be many years away.

It was perhaps not surprising then that the majority of the new AIPA executive, were A380 pilots, including Captain Butt who has gone to work driving buses since COVID-19 struck.

“There is a greater presence of A380 pilots,” Captain Butt conceded.

“They have a greater motivation than anybody to ensure the best outcomes of any talks we have with Qantas going forward.”

As a first step, Captain Butt said AIPA wanted to bring a number of issues to a head with Qantas so pilots could make a decision on their futures.

“As a first step, we want to get a better understanding of where Qantas would like this to go, the different plans they’re examining at the moment so that we can come up with something that’s of benefit to the pilots and the airlines,” he said.

“They obviously have greater information of their capital needs, the aircraft requirements, the forward bookings – information that’s not readily available to pilots.”

The “changing of the guard” within AIPA was still being digested by many Qantas pilots on Tuesday with one expressing his disappointment at the upheaval.

Another pilot, who did not want to be named, said members of the new executive had deliberately set out to destabilise Mr Sedgwick and his team, with a sometimes “vile” campaign.

“Many of them were advocating postponing the long haul enterprise agreement vote in March last year,” said the pilot.

“What a complete debacle that would have been now to still have that EA open.”

As well as Captain Butt, the new line-up included two former executives involved in the industrial campaign that led to Qantas being grounded in 2011.

Former president Barry Jackson and former vice-president David Backhouse gained a reputation for their hardball style but the pilot questioned if that was suited to 2021.

“Hopefully they’ve learned something from that experience,” said the pilot.

[Telfer86]

Send a thank you card to Dan & the gang who have now botched HQ for a second time & made redundancies a much more real possibility
At the very least put domestic back by six months

You can rest easy that the Vict Govt are now going to ensure that the guest are now made fully informed not to use their nebulisers with an engaging & socially comforting with diversity respected pretty please

[Ollie Onion]

BA A380 Pilots are on furlough with 80% base pay. Qantas have used this crisis to totally screw their staff, the frustration is there is no ‘plan’ to give people a bit of certain going forward.

[jrfsp]

BA A380 Pilots are on furlough with 80% base pay. Qantas have used this crisis to totally screw their staff, the frustration is there is no ‘plan’ to give people a bit of certain going forward.

Isnt this the UK Gov's furlough scheme actually paying this, the same as Jobkeeper here. I cant see BA continuing to pay stood down staff once that scheme ends.

[ruprecht]

Isnt this the UK Gov's furlough scheme actually paying this, the same as Jobkeeper here. I cant see BA continuing to pay stood down staff once that scheme ends.
It will be interesting to see what happens to QF’s cashflow when jobkeeper ends and a lot of pilots start taking leave.

[krismiler]

This article gives some hope for the future of the A380 with QF.

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-airbus-a380-makes-sense/

[Climb150]

I don't know if it was the terrible condition of the QF A380 interior that made my two flights on a Q 380 so bad (broken seat back entertainment, power outlets not working, seats that don't recline or recline straight into the lap of person behind you) or the terrible passengers on board. You know, the ones who they keep serving alcohol too even though they are clearly intoxicated?

The Qantas international product had gotten so bad pre covid that I know people who would fly to the USA or UK via just about anywhere to avoid Qantas. AJ should focus more on actually keeping customers than putting out fluffy press releases.

[Going Boeing]

Joyce’s comments to media are always pitched with an aim, even to the extent of disinformation - they are rarely truthful. Therefore the conclusions in that article can’t be believed.

There’s no doubt that keeping the possibility of the A380’s returning to service allows the airline to keep the A380 pilots stood down indefinitely without triggering the RIN process, as detailed in the award.

[kiwi grey]

There’s no doubt that keeping the possibility of the A380’s returning to service allows the airline to keep the A380 pilots stood down indefinitely without triggering the RIN process, as detailed in the award.

^^^^^^
This

[OnceBitten]

Beyond the international borders opening the decision to not fly the 380 becomes a commercial decision and therefor a surplus of numbers on that fleet to be actioned as such. That is also in the award. Don't be fooled the company is seeking a variation to min guarantee due to kindness to get others back in seats.
They know dam well they won't be able to keep crews stood down for an excessive period of time so probably have concluded its better to pay them less on a variation on other fleets than to pay full 380 MGH to stay at home and do nothing. Which makes sense.

[ScepticalOptomist]

There’s no doubt that keeping the possibility of the A380’s returning to service allows the airline to keep the A380 pilots stood down indefinitely without triggering the RIN process, as detailed in the award.

That’s not how IR law works - can’t be stood down indefinitely- when the border opens up QF know they have to stand everybody up. They may choose to make some redundant, but stand them up they will...

[ScepticalOptomist]

Beyond the international borders opening the decision to not fly the 380 becomes a commercial decision and therefor a surplus of numbers on that fleet to be actioned as such. That is also in the award. Don't be fooled the company is seeking a variation to min guarantee due to kindness to get others back in seats.
They know dam well they won't be able to keep crews stood down for an excessive period of time so probably have concluded its better to pay them less on a variation on other fleets than to pay full 380 MGH to stay at home and do nothing. Which makes sense.

Exactly right. QF know this is coming up pretty soon.

[Keg]

QF know this is coming up pretty soon.

Define ‘pretty soon’? When do you expect all border restrictions to be lifted?

QF is preparing to fly to many destinations before all restrictions are lifted. I’m not sure that helps the A380 drivers in the short term.

The real question re EA variations is whether you can convince A330 F/Os to accommodate an extra 80 A380 F/Os onto their type (about an extra 1/3 of the establishment) in return for 1/3 reduced MGH. A big ask!

That said, my gut tells me that the A380’s return would be only about 6 months after the A330 and 787 fleets are fully back. Cheaper to just pay the A380 crew for those 6 months that train them across and then back again.

[dr dre]

That’s not how IR law works - can’t be stood down indefinitely- when the border opens up QF know they have to stand everybody up. They may choose to make some redundant, but stand them up they will...

So management have consistently stated that border openings are not the trigger for standing up all crew. Domestic borders have been open at various stages during this time and still stand downs have been enacted, even amongst crew solely flying within one state.

The Fair Work Ombudsman has stated this (https://coronavirus.fairwork.gov.au/coronavirus-and-australian-workplace-laws/stand-down-during-coronavirus):

Employers may be able to stand their employees down during the coronavirus outbreak for various reasons, including when there's a stoppage of work due to lack of supply for which the employer can't be held responsible.

I'm not saying this is how is should be. But this is what the powers that be are are saying. Management could change their mind and choose to stand up crew before there is useful work for all, but that's their decision to make. The ALAEA took management to the Federal Court over stand downs and lost, the Court finding stand downs were enacted due to the collapse in passenger travel and concern that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be sustained, in addition to movement restrictions.

Then when the border is opened it won't be fully open like in January 2020 immediately. There'll be restrictions on entry from some countries, vaccination requirements, possible isolation and testing requirements etc for several years that will be argued are preventing useful work outside of the company's control.

The new AIPA will probably challenge stand downs legally again, will they be successful? I wouldn't put my money on it.

[Wingspar]

Define ‘pretty soon’? When do you expect all border restrictions to be lifted?

QF is preparing to fly to the many destinations before all restrictions are lifted. I’m not sure that helps the A380 drivers in the short term.

The real question re EA variations is whether you can convince A330 F/Os to accommodate an extra 80 A380 F/Os onto their type (about an extra 1/3 of the establishment) in return for reduced MGH. A big ask!

That said, my gut tells me that the A380’s return would be only about 6 months after the A330 and 787 fleets are fully back. Cheaper to just pay the A380 crew for those 6 months that train them across and then back again.

Imagine the training bill?
Would AJ like it if he wanted to get the A380’s back and Dick says no can do, they’re all trained up on the 330?
OK train ‘em all up again.
As Keg said, better to keep them there. ....and pay them a MGH of 100 hours.

Fair Deal Murray?

[cynphil]

Maybe the most simple and cost effective way for Qantas moving forward is to announce the retirement of the A380.....then just follow the EA with the following RIN. Not many airlines are keeping the A380’s. Also, maybe time to order those A350’s that AJ likes so much! With many cancelled or delayed orders, availability shouldn’t be an issue.

[wombat watcher]

“The new AIPA will probably challenge stand downs legally again, will they be successful?”

The new AIPA, which really the old AIPA from previous years, didn’t win any court cases over about a 6 year period, what makes you think the same people have acquired the skills to pick which court cases to run.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Define ‘pretty soon’? When do you expect all border restrictions to be lifted?



By second half of this year.

Vaccine doing a good job, case numbers down approx 30-40% in the worst countries (with a few exceptions) in the last 21 days or so. Those numbers will only
improve as momentum builds.

[The_Equaliser]

No Chance! Just watched Q&A with three of the most eminent epidemiologists in Australia. Quarantine will be around until the end of next year, mostly because of the poor vaccination rates and procedures in other countries.

[Keg]

By second half as in by July? Or ‘in’ the second half meaning perhaps October- December? If you’re right the A380 is back in business within 6 months of that occurring.

With an Aussie populace almost fully vaccinated by Christmas 2021 and similar occurring in the UK and the USA there is no way the public will put up with an additional 12 months of locked borders and quarantine.

Would these be the same epidemiologists who predicted massive first and second and third waves and how allowing gatherings in NSW at Christmas would see thousands of cases by early January? The same ones that claimed the cricket at the SCG was going to be the mother of all super spreaders?

[The_Equaliser]

Aah no, end of 2022. Nick Coatsworth, Tony Blakely and Sharon Lewin. At every point in this pandemic the optimistic timelines that people here have put forward have invariably proved wrong.