QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

[Blueskymine]

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.

Makes more sense to run an A330 with a denser config than a 787. Unless the 787 is continuing on with range considerations then they’ll stay in bed until required.

[Angle of Attack]

Ozbiggles, interest rates are around 0.4% for the government at the moment, do you think taking on debt is bad?

[Angle of Attack]

It’s common sense money is free atm and you would be mad not to use it.

[ozbiggles]

The debt has to be repaid at some stage, regardless of the interest rate. Free money? Really...best laugh all day. You are telling me in excess of 100 billion dollars debt is free? I think I will go borrow a free 100 million for me tomorrow.
Debt is Debt.
Why doesn’t Qantas borrow another 6 billon if it’s free?
Why doesn’t VA just borrow 6.2 Billion for free?

[patty50]

The shenanigans the Fed are getting away with are insane and make what we’re doing look a-ok, raising the dole a bit (should’ve been done years ago) and paying some people’s wages for 6 months. Adds to the debt but the alternative is mass homelessness and kids starving.

At least our government isn’t doing anything stupid like buying Virgins debt for face value.

[oicur12.again]

But change is here. Embrace it, or it will embrace you.

The best advice of this thread. Those who fear change are going to struggle over the next several years.

[Ragnor]

Several years? All these random time lines. Honestly, no one has a clue when and what post covid will be like.

[cloudsurfng]

Or if there will even be a ‘post covid’

[blubak]

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.
Been told 787 wont do domestic flying as the power by the hour deal will cost them a lot of money when its combined with high cycles(short sectors as in domestic flying)
330 much cheaper to operate on domestic sectors.

[slats11]

Several years? All these random time lines. Honestly, no one has a clue when and what post covid will be like.


True. The future is unclear.

But if you don't plan your future, others will plan it for you. Guess what they have planned? Nothing good.

So plan for aviation to be very different for years to come
Short term = next few months = effectively shut down with very limited domestic operations
Medium term = next 6-12 months = reduced operations, with domestic recovering before international
Long term - a progressive and gradual return towards business as before. However there will be some permanent change. This has been too disruptive to our collective psychology and to the economy to expect there won't be a long term consequence. Major events change the world, and there is a "before" and an "after" COVID is such an event.

The medium term is the important thing to focus on right now. I expect
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). This will hit airline revenue. Hard. A minority of seats count for most of the profit.
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y.

Leisure V business:
Leisure will recover faster, but will be to different destinations. People will want to travel, and can't get the holiday experience by Zoom.
Business will be harder hit. Fewer conferences. For business meetings, the bean-counters and CEOs will be saying "Well, zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....." In addition to saving $, businesses will think about their liability and reduced productivity if an employee contracted COVID during work-related travel when there was a safer alternative.

Domestic V International
Domestic will obviously recover faster. But even domestic will be affected long term by reduced business travel - there will be reduced business travel between east coast cities, with less day trips for a 1 hour meeting
International business will also be hit hard.
Leisure is the market which will bounce back faster.
NZ will be an early one to open, and people will travel to NZ if that is where they can go.
South Pacific Islands will likely be early. These countries will miss the cruise ship industry, and will be keen to open their economies to tourists from safe destinations. So New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa.
Hawaii may be another viable destination. This will also be missing the cruise industry. Only 700 cases in total. Non-stop, people will decide they can wear a mask for 8 hours if they are the rules. Will be in high demand by tourists seeking more than just a sandy beach.
Bali and Singapore are possible early recoveries, depending on what unfolds there over the next few months.
Long haul will be slowest to recover. Family budgets have been hard hit, and many people won't have the money and won't be able to afford the time away. There will be some of course, but numbers will be way down. The exception will be families keen to reunite after a year or more of not being able to catch up.

So, that is the future I would plan for. And I expect that is the future the airlines are planning for.

[Ragnor]

Well it won't be covid holding aviation back, ACCC wants QF to play nice to let a competitor be given a fair go what a load of BS. Guess they won't acknowledge QF group has taken a massive financial hit and are in need of having to get revenue. At the end of the administration VA will have a company with billions at hand, should be open slather.ACCC told to watch airlines to give Virgin Australia a chancehttps://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4f3eb2aeb5091a1982bfe5fd0a0039d2?width=650 (https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4f3eb2aeb5091a1982bfe5fd0a0039d2)The ACCC has been directed to monitor competition among domestic airlines over the next three years.

Robyn Ironside (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Robyn+Ironside)
Aviation Writer
@ironsider (http://twitter.com/ironsider)
https://i1.wp.com/pixel.tcog.cp1.news.com.au/track/component/author/6e7c15929181150836944cea1b4d0979/?esi=true&t_product=the-australian&t_template=s3/austemp-article_common/broadsheet/components/article-author/widget&td_bio=false&td_bylinetitle=Aviation%2520Writer&td_location=none

The federal government has ordered the competition watchdog to monitor domestic flights in Australia for the next three years in an effort to give a renewed Virgin Australia the best chance of succeeding.

A statement form Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Australia’s national interest was best served through having a sustainable, competitive aviation sector.

He said the direction would require the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to monitor prices, costs and profits in the domestic air passenger sector.

“A key matter covered will be the level of capacity the airlines are putting on each route and whether this is occurring in a way that may damage competition,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“The ACCC will release reports at least quarterly.”

ACCC Chairman Rod Sims welcomed the direction from government and the “opportunity to ensure competition in the domestic travel market at this time”.

He said the commission would be looking out for any early signs of damage to competition in the domestic airline industry which could harm the long-term interests of consumers.

“This information can then be quickly acted on by the ACCC and/or provided to the government,” said Mr Sims.

Mr Frydenberg indicated the move was a further example of the government’s support for the aviation industry as it navigated the coronavirus pandemic.

“This includes continuing to work constructively with the administrator in relation to the Virgin administration and supporting a market-based solution,” he said.

[ozbiggles]

I wouldn’t stress over that, somehow what has been happening for the last decade is new news?
Anyway, If Qantas are happy chucking out $19 fares to everyone and everywhere they can’t be too hard up for cash. Although try finding one!

[chookcooker]

Well it won't be covid holding aviation back, ACCC wants QF to play nice to let a competitor be given a fair go what a load of BS. Guess they won't acknowledge QF group has taken a massive financial hit and are in need of having to get revenue. At the end of the administration VA will have a company with billions at hand, should be open slather.=16pxSeeing as you’ve openly stated you’re happy for qantas to solely be given financial assistance even if virgin is denied, I’m not surprised you dont like this. Why cease being a ******** now?

[slats11]

Hang together or hang separately. Your managers must be just loving this. Divide and conquer.

[Ragnor]

Seeing as you’ve openly stated you’re happy for qantas to solely be given financial assistance even if virgin is denied, I’m not surprised you dont like this. Why cease being a ******** now?

I would be surprised if I have stated that, more like I would of meant VA should be denied funding for the sole use of itself but funding given to Aviation equally and in proportion to the size of the company. Why should Joe and Jane Doe be made to pay for incompetent previous management?!

My problem with this article it’s just another level of the rubbish that Australia has, Australia is large enough for QF and VA to co-exist and have strong competition but if VA can’t manage their own well stiff! Also, Bain and Cyrus both keeping the current management well we all know what the definition of insanity is, good luck!

[dr dre]

Business will be harder hit. Fewer conferences. For business meetings, the bean-counters and CEOs will be saying "Well, zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....." In addition to saving $, businesses will think about their liability and reduced productivity if an employee contracted COVID during work-related travel when there was a safer alternative.

This is just based on those who work in office buildings, but feedback I’ve heard suggests Zoom isn’t the be all and end all of business communication. A lot of employees sick of talking with their colleagues on a screen all day long, and want to be back in a physical location together. Meetings aren’t as good online as they are in person, can’t pick up the personal communications, can’t detect body language, can’t have quick off the record chats with clients etc. We hear the same suggestion that online conferencing would replace business travel all the time, including post GFC but business travel always seems to return. Even in the age of technology being physically in front of people is the best way to do business.

If anything I’d expect leisure travel to be slightly more affected as holidays are one of the first things to be cut in a recession.

In terms of liability I’m sure in time contacting COVID on a business trip will be the same as contracting the flu on a business trip in terms of corporate liability.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

This is just based on those who work in office buildings, but feedback I’ve heard suggests Zoom isn’t the be all and end all of business communication. A lot of employees sick of talking with their colleagues on a screen all day long, and want to be back in a physical location together. Meetings aren’t as good online as they are in person, can’t pick up the personal communications, can’t detect body language, can’t have quick off the record chats with clients etc. We hear the same suggestion that online conferencing would replace business travel all the time, including post GFC but business travel always seems to return. Even in the age of technology being physically in front of people is the best way to do business.

If anything I’d expect leisure travel to be slightly more affected as holidays are one of the first things to be cut in a recession.

In terms of liability I’m sure in time contacting COVID on a business trip will be the same as contracting the flu on a business trip in terms of corporate liability.

A friend of mine from the corporate world told me his companies new policy is that anyone who goes on an plane trip (whether it be for business or leisure) will have to work from home for 14 days post trip. Just a small example, but could be an insight into the apprehension a lot of businesses have about putting their people on flights for the short to medium term.

[slats11]

Zoom isn’t the be all and end all of business communication. A lot of employees sick of talking with their colleagues on a screen all day long, and want to be back in a physical location together. Meetings aren’t as good online as they are in person, can’t pick up the personal communications, can’t detect body language, can’t have quick off the record chats with clients etc.

You are telling me what the employee is wanting and what they are sick of. I am telling you what management and accounting and risk management are thinking. For the foreseeable future, business travel will be way down and only after a risk assessment. Even self-employed who can make up their own mind will think about the risk of shutting down for 14 days.

If anything I’d expect leisure travel to be slightly more affected as holidays are one of the first things to be cut in a recession.

leisure will hold up better overall. There will be a cascade phenomenon. Some people will drop out of budget holidays, but they will be replaced by the next group up who now want a budget holiday. The tier above who have downgraded To budget will themselves be displaced by previous premium leisure.
people will still spend on holidays and travel. But they will mostly spend less than previously. And the destinations available will also be less expensive. So Fiji rather than Hawaii, Hawaii rather than Europe.

In terms of liability I’m sure in time contacting COVID on a business trip will be the same as contracting the flu on a business trip in terms of corporate liability.

No. if you get flu on a trip, your partner does not have to stop work for 14 days and your kids are not excluded from school for 14 days.

The world has changed.

[dr dre]

You are telling me what the employee is wanting and what they are sick of. I am telling you what management and accounting and risk management are thinking. For the foreseeable future, business travel will be way down and only after a risk assessment..

Here’s comment from a chair at the chamber of Commerce and Industry published in the SMH the other day:

John Hart, executive chair at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said boosting business travel would assist with ramping up economic activity."Whatever can be done to make travel as seamless as it possibly can be will be good in getting the economy back to work," he said.

"There is a hell of a lot of movement around the country that is business and corporate-based and that's a really important start of the restart, particularly as we start to see business events picking up again."Mr Hart said there was a case for eased quarantine arrangements for countries deemed low-risk and travel should be permitted based on the benefit individuals were bringing to the Australian economy.


It looks like he, as a representative of the business community, is desperate to get business travel back up again

[slats11]

It looks like he, as a representative of the business community, is desperate to get business travel back up again

Of course he is. Many travel / hotel / accommodation / travel agent groups are members of this organisation. So it is only right and appropriate he represent these interests. Otherwise why would they be members.

The real question however is whether thousands of small and large businesses will buy into this.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/06/confidence-floods-back-as-jetstar-19-fares-sell-out-in-hours/

Jetstar just sold 10,000 $19 seats in 4 hours, 70,000 by early afternoon.

fair to say people are ready to travel again.

[slats11]

Yep. But my guess is a very large % were leisure. People are sick of not travelling and sick of holidays at home.

Managers don’t really care whether employees are sick of no business travel. In fact, no travel has been a blessing to the financial bottom line.

[Bad Adventures]

Just the beginning really. With the NZ bubble not far off and Japan with the Olympics next year, Singapore and Hong Kong should have things well under control by years end, I think confidence and demand will return quicker then people think.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Yep. But my guess is a very large % were leisure. People are sick of not travelling and sick of holidays at home.

Managers don’t really care whether employees are sick of no business travel. In fact, no travel has been a blessing to the financial bottom line.

yeah, absolutely. It’s only really a reflection of the leisure market, the jury is still out on business travel.

[Green.Dot]

I really hope they are proven wrong in the future but I think slats11 is pretty close to the money with his overall predictions....

[ScepticalOptomist]

Yep. But my guess is a very large % were leisure. People are sick of not travelling and sick of holidays at home.

Managers don’t really care whether employees are sick of no business travel. In fact, no travel has been a blessing to the financial bottom line.

Time will tell. The business owners I deal with daily think virtual meetings are a band aid and can’t wait to send their people in face to face.

Business has and will always be done face to face - rather than on the phone / zoom etc. We’ve had other means of communicating for decades and yet business still relies on the ability to travel to a meeting.

CV won’t change that.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Time will tell. The business owners I deal with daily think virtual meetings are a band aid and can’t wait to send their people in face to face.

Business has and will always be done face to face - rather than on the phone / zoom etc. We’ve had other means of communicating for decades and yet business still relies on the ability to travel to a meeting.

CV won’t change that.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting business travel will disappear completely, but it could definitely become less common. Yes, the technology has been available for sometime, but it’s only been recently that many business have been forced to use it and can now evaluate its merits.

Zoom meetings have their flaws, but so to does air travel. Packing, traffic to the airport, flight delays, the time incurred by the flight itself, waiting for bags, taxi out of airport, hotels and doing it all again to get home. The time/financial costs of business travel vs a simple log on to a zoom meeting will see many businesses reevaluate their business travel needs.

Plus we’re evaluating the technology associated with Skype/zoom meetings today, who knows how much better all of that will be in 3-5 years time.

[Lookleft]

Many a business deal is consumated over lunch or in the informal times between meetings, Skype or Zoom won't replace that.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Many a business deal is consumated over lunch or in the informal times between meetings, Skype or Zoom won't replace that.

very true, however, will the quarterly follow up meetings become 6 monthly, replacing every second meeting with zoom. I’m some cases no, but in others, perhaps yes.

[ExtraShot]

Many a business deal is consumated over lunch or in the informal times between meetings, Skype or Zoom won't replace that.

Nor does it really facilitate supporting the non verbal communications, such as body language and mannerisms that form a significant part of human to human communication. It can be incredibly important in business.

I think skype and zoom will have a newfound place, but certainly will only replace a minimal component of business travel.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Notice the advertising and how it’s targeted?

Jetstar - LCC/ Leisure traveller whom is very price sensitive - $20 airfares.

Qantas - Premium / Business traveller - Triple frequent flyer points.

Management know how to spark demand, and know where the yield is.

[slats11]

Just ask video libraries and bookshops how the internet changed their business model.

no one is saying there will be zero business travel, and it is a straw man argument to say anyone did.

But business travel will take a big hit. And business travel accounts for a large % of the margin in the airline industry where margins are very thin.

Warren Buffett has sold his airline stocks. All of them. How do you think he sees airline profitability going forward. Sure they have bounced off their lows. And if that gives you comfort, I guess I am happy for you. But the stock market is now crazy and totally disconnected from any fundamentals, with people gambling their redundancy payments on Robinhood.com. Like the shoeshine boy giving Joe Kennedy stock tips, this will end in tears. And worse.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/how-to-spot-stock-market-bubbles-2017-10%3famp

Plan accordingly.

[C441]

"Just ask video libraries and bookshops how the internet changed their business model."

As an aside however, consider the current media attention being paid to breaches of a some well known entities' IT business platforms and you've got to wonder how long businesses will continue with online meetings after the first major business or government seriously confidential online hookup is hacked and then announced to the world. Most of the entities currently threatened with 'unknown sourced' intrusions already have reasonably robust defences and yet they are being hacked and breached with significant effect - to them anyway. Think Lion Nathan in recent days.

[MickG0105]

Notice the advertising and how it’s targeted?

Jetstar - LCC/ Leisure traveller whom is very price sensitive - $20 airfares.

Qantas - Premium / Business traveller - Triple frequent flyer points.

Management know how to spark demand, and know where the yield is.
And they know how to go after market share. Triple frequent flyer points, just the thing to have erstwhile VA punter think twice about not only their next flight but the one after that also.

[Cdash]

Anyone else hearing jobs to go before the 30th?

Look after each other.

[dragon man]

Yes, lots, board meeting next Thursday. It will be ugly I suspect but maybe for the moment not for pilots.

[Ollie Onion]

Well, they have been saying we will know by the end of June.

[Cdash]

Up to 10,000 is the figure I’m hearing being thrown around.

It would be a low move considering most would have budgeted on getting the jobkeeper allowance until October and that would essentially have to be turned off and those desperate to find immediate funds may miss the boat on that first super withdrawal available for this financial year.

[crosscutter]

Yes, lots, board meeting next Thursday. It will be ugly I suspect but maybe for the moment not for pilots.

I think board meeting was last Thursday. Brace!

[DirectAnywhere]

those desperate to find immediate funds may miss the boat on that first super withdrawal available for this financial year.

If that’s a concern, grab the 10k now, stick it in the bank and, if you don’t need it, put it back as a non-concessional contribution. No biggy.

[Angle of Attack]

Take both lots of 10k out of super, this and next financial year, as said before if you don’t need it put it in later. And either way if you find out your redundant at the end of June there notice periods then CR payments, you won’t be left out in the woods within a few days financially, and hell you could just turn your Jobkeeper to Jobseeker either way.

[Cdash]

Thanks lads,
Not something I think I have to do at this stage but a consideration for others as many guys are still confident we won’t see any CR.

Keep in mind anyone who lives with a partner who is employed is unlikely to get jobseeker as they haven’t removed the income test.

[Ollie Onion]

I am not sure pilots will see the brunt of CR initially. Pre-COVID they were so worried about the lack of pilot availability they were investing in setting up their own academy. They worked bloody hard to redeploy the 40 pilots left after Jetstar Regional to keep them in the group. They may offer some early retirement / VR packages but they may also offer Furlough options and LWOP as even if it takes 24 months to get back to reasonable pax numbers it will be cheaper to keep people attached to the group. Maybe it is wishful thinking, but the lead time to get a pilot recruited and on line is probably 12 months so they will be conscious of that. It looks as though Jetstar Japan will shortly be back to normal op’s, Jetstar NZ is said to be at 100% domestic capacity in August with the Tasman and Pacific coming soon and of course East Coast Oz should be back big time domestically when the states lift restrictions. The problem areas are wide body international, how they deal with that will be very interesting.

[PoppaJo]

Hands are tied with the 787. Can’t sell them. I guess they could retire a large chunk of 747/333s and send them over the fence. That doesn’t help the guys at the star though.

With Tiger now out hopefully some growth opportunities across the market next year. 17 odd aircraft taken away that’s a lot of seats. Market share that they have held since 2007. Hopefully they can use the 787 pilot body back on domestic.

Alan will want his $40m a week back. Anything is possible I guess.

[Ragnor]

Well sadly at JQ , 78 crews could be stood down until next yr there is no possibility of the 78 being used domestically due infrastructure and airports where they could use stand off bays wouldn’t make using 78 viable. I’ve heard rumblings of SOs on the bottom could be let go.

320 crew in the smaller bases could be stood down till September or when demand dictates maybe one base could be closed but I don’t think any will be made redundant anytime soon. JQ have said from the start they will do what’s cheapest for the company and doing big payouts is more expensive than AL accruals for stood down pilots. JQ also did a massive recruitment drive last 4 yrs spending a lot of money the EBA has a type rating payback over 5yrs 6th yr you go on level 3 there is nothing in EBA to say if you leave inside that time you have to pay back the balance. So that would leave JQ with more than a redundancy bill.

[normanton]

It's a new world. How many times have we heard the word unprecedented?

Some quotes from the last webinar:

"no plans for any permanent changes" (Tino talking about SH)
"looking for other alternatives to the default position of making junior pilots redundant" (Tino)
"VR is an option, but not sure if it is possible" (Tino)
"individual VR packages are problematic" (HR)
"changes to the EBA" (Tino)

The email from AIPA pretty much confirms Tino's quotes, and which path they are headed. I suggest everyone plans accordingly.

[Poto]

They may be headed that way but any ‘changes to the EA‘ requires a Vote. VR does not require a Vote. Targeted VR is not problematic, it’s just not cheap! We have all the ME3 flying here, two US airlines from July plus the Chinese and Singaporeans. Apparently everyone is happy to lose money to do it. QF has JobKeeper funding to the tune of $75M month. Now it has been suggested that Crew remain stood down without accrual of entitlements?

[normanton]

We have all the ME3 flying here, two US airlines from July plus the Chinese and Singaporeans. Apparently everyone is happy to lose money to do it.
And yet, Qantas was happy to do it as well while the government was funding it.

The only difference is the ME3 and US airlines are still being funded!

[dragon man]

I don’t think it’s as easy as saying you are stood down and you don’t accrue any leave entitlements as it’s part of the FWA act and Would need an amendment to the act.

[Buster Hyman]

They worked bloody hard to redeploy the 40 pilots left after Jetstar Regional to keep them in the group.
Great bunch of Guys & Gals! Well worth keeping them in the ranks! :ok::ok::ok:

[Ollie Onion]

I totally agree.

[Angle of Attack]

Ozbiggles I wasn’t talking about companies taking on debt, it was the government! QF and VA can’t get interest rates close to 0.5%, but the government can. VA would have been hard pressed to get any loan under around 5 % and also who the hell is going to offer them the loan? no one!
Because they were a basketcase to start with!

[ozbiggles]

I was talking about both...there is no such thing as free money (or close to free). Unless you win powerball..
The taxpayer still has to pay it back long after the politicians who spent it have gone.

[Chairmans Lounge]

38
I don’t think it’s as easy as saying you are stood down and you don’t accrue any leave entitlements as it’s part of the FWA act and would need an amendment to the act.

Agreed. Being stood down doesn’t permit QF to act carte blanche with our awards.

[Wingspar]

The EA covers this scenario very well. As mentioned, notice periods, CR payments and re employment when the time comes.
Let it be.
Very lucky to have it there.
They certainly had no qualms when it came time to cut off negotiations and put a ‘take it or leave it’ vote to the pilots earlier in the year.
Chances are they will have Buckley’s chance of a variation vote getting up.
It’s opportunistic to clear the ‘leave’ decks and pay no one at this time.
Just leave it at that.

[wszza]

The EA covers this scenario very well. As mentioned, notice periods, CR payments and re employment when the time comes.
Let it be.
Very lucky to have it there.
They certainly had no qualms when it came time to cut off negotiations and put a ‘take it or leave it’ vote to the pilots earlier in the year.
Chances are they will have Buckley’s chance of a variation vote getting up.
It’s opportunistic to clear the ‘leave’ decks and pay no one at this time.
Just leave it at that.

Ah yes, throw 300+ colleagues under the bus + all those that will be demoted because of your vendetta against the company. You must be a joy to fly with

[Icarus2001]

.there is now such thing as free money (or close to free). Unless you win powerball..

Well that is certainly one view. What is fiat money? If the US government can simply print whatever they like.The Australian government has done exactly the same thing. Creating funds out of nothing.
Quantitative Easing is essentially making money appear from nowhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/qe-what-it-means-for-australia-20200323-p54cvr

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081415/understanding-how-federal-reserve-creates-money.asp

[ozbiggles]

So you are advocating we should do what Zimbabwe does?

from one of your sources.Loss of backing[edit (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Fiat_money&action=edit&section=11)]A fiat-money currency greatly loses its value should the issuing government or central bank (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank) either lose the ability to, or refuse to, further guarantee its value. The usual consequence is hyperinflation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation). Some examples where this has occurred are the Zimbabwean dollar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_dollar), China in 1945 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#China) and the mark in the Weimar Republic in 1923 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic).

So again there is no such thing as a free ride. Unless you consider hyperinflation a fun thing.

[Icarus2001]

I made no such advocacy. I asked a question and pointed out that the USA and Australia have already done this and are doing it. I make no value judgement. This is the reality, not my opinion.

The key words in that quote however are either lose the ability to, or refuse to, further guarantee its value.

[MelbourneFlyer]

Qantas Airways Ltd has told pilots it plans to make an announcement on the airline’s future direction by the end of the month and that it hopes to avoid forced job cuts among flight crew, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

Qantas International Chief Executive Tino La Spina made the remarks at a webinar with pilots on Monday, said the people, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak with media.

La Spina said avoiding forced redundancies, which he would view as a “failure”, would require flexibility from the workforce as the airline grapples with the coronavirus outbreak, the people said.

Measures could include early retirement, voluntary redundancy and pilots agreeing to be paid for fewer than the minimum hours in their industrial agreements due to the lack of flying, one of the people said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-qantas/qantas-to-announce-future-direction-soon-trying-to-avoid-forced-pilot-job-cuts-sources-idUSL4N2DZ19F

[ozbiggles]

It always astounds me people expecting to hear anything new and exciting on these town halls when the first thing that happens after is people do pay for comment to the media. Interesting times ahead. No forced job losses would be a nirvana but here’s hoping.

[Ollie Onion]

Headline should really read ‘Airlines use COVID as reason to tear up existing agreements’.

[Emmit Stussy]

“Please help us avoid redundancies by accepting a pay cut”. ​​​
Six months later...
“Really sorry but that didn’t work, we’re going to need to lay people off. By the way, your redundancy payout is based on the reduced T&C’s you agreed to six months ago”.


I’m unaware of an airline manager anywhere who wouldn’t sell his/her mother’s pacemaker.

[hoss58]

As opposed to pilots??

[Fonz121]

As opposed to pilots??

I guess we're about to find out.

[Keg]

“Please help us avoid redundancies by accepting a pay cut”. ​​​
Six months later...
“Really sorry but that didn’t work, we’re going to need to lay people off. By the way, your redundancy payout is based on the reduced T&C’s you agreed to six months ago”.


I’m unaware of an airline manager anywhere who wouldn’t sell his/her mother’s pacemaker.

There’s no way the Qantas pilot group is going to agree to things like lower divisors and other means to protect jobs AND in the case of redundancy see the payout tied to those lower hours.

I’d prefer to see it the other way around. If we vote on a variation to the agreement to share the pain and preserve as many jobs as possible through things like flexible divisors I’d like to see greater CR redundancy provisions.

[rrramjet]

I could not agree more Keg.

However, the problem becomes short haul will be asked to make the majority of the concessions to share the pain. If the “4 holers” (sorry for the stupid reference, but this is how some w@nker referred to himself in a webinar) want to start flying again anytime soon, it has to be in short haul. Any change to MGH in short haul to bring in surplus long haul crew will in my opinion fail. Of interest, if the change was to bring all short haul crew back, I think that would be a different story.

Short haul has already taken a circa 34% pay drop to MGH (72 hrs vs 53.54). Long haul fleets when they were flying were still cruising along on 160/145 (B787 - at a high hourly rate) a little while ago - a reduction of a whopping 9% from their usual divisor of 175, even if it was only for 4 week rosters. Didn’t see too much talk about reducing divisors then.... If these guys/girls want to fly on the B737 when there is not enough flying for the current crews, they may need start making some sacrifices themselves.

[dragon man]

International cabin crew managers stood up from Friday for 30 days. Redundancies to be announced on Friday.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

International cabin crew managers stood up from Friday for 30 days. Redundancies to be announced on Friday.

Stood up to handle the redundancies?

[dragon man]

Stood up to handle the redundancies?

I would assume so.

[V-Jet]

I'd love to be wrong but the recent history of QF (which to my mind predates Elaine) shows they will never do the 'right' thing when the cheaper option that screws everyone is available.

Even if it means holding the Govt of Australia and any others to ransom - see the shutdown. Wee Elaine is, after all, SUCH a BIG and IMPORTANT man.

Currently, as far as airlines go in Australia, they are in a pretty decent position to do just that. They are incompetent airline/business managers (though they would argue even more strongly now that they aren't) but they are very competent political managers and extremely adept at extracting cash for their own (personal) purposes. There is also a very strong overseas precedent of sacking anyone you can, that you must consider.

Comments like 'The FAAA are still in consultation about....' is a totally meaningless comment. How long did AIPA (to pick one example) have to sit through meetings of nothing month after month when record profits and a CEO getting $25m were in play?

To show my age and quote 'The Youmg Ones'; Qantas management are utter, UTTER BASTARDS. And totally incompetent business managers because they do NOT care about the company. They ONLY care about their OWN tenure and unbelievably lucrative salary package - which, I would like to point out, would not be replicated if they became redundant for any reason. Do not for a second think that anyone of junior management level and above will sacrifice a single dollar (or cent) of their own personal income to help the company (and far less, any employee). They simply don't understand the concept of company morale, nor what is the 'right' thing for the business. Qantas is nothing but a cash cow and anyone in management will sacrifice anyone else (not themselves, obviously) to ensure their personal financial survival.

Management know there will be a Govt backing for their own salary - as long as they cut costs. It's as clear to me (as it should be to anyone else) that Elaine and his management 'team' are worth the $50m++ to steer the company through this unprecedented period, but that doesn't leave much else for those left under them. The company is losing billions and existing on taxpayers funds. I just can't see very much money left for those doing the clearly minimal actual work... And ESPECIALLY (see comment above) those already marked for termination.

[crosscutter]

International cabin crew managers stood up from Friday for 30 days. Redundancies to be announced on Friday.

I guess that works with the Mon morning asx announcement. If true similar emails should be delivered to those in the office?

Might also be consultative?

[wheels_down]

Alan did say back in April if it drags into next year there is going to be considerable pressure on the balance sheet, essentially the business will be broke. It’s obviously more clear now that this is likely to be the case. International will obviously drag as far as 2022. Domestic is going to be very patchy for the next half thanks to Victoria.

Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.

[dragon man]

I’m sorry but that’s complete BS! The FAAA are still in consultation about managing numbers through a possible offer of VR and LWOP going forward.

We will find out on Friday won’t we?

[Bad Adventures]

Well let’s get some more detail on this announcement on Friday from those that seem to know on here lol. Are these redundancies voluntary? Are they compulsory? Are they for QAL or QCCA crew or both? Is it last on 1st off? What are the numbers?

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Alan did say back in April if it drags into next year there is going to be considerable pressure on the balance sheet, essentially the business will be broke. It’s obviously more clear now that this is likely to be the case. International will obviously drag as far as 2022. Domestic is going to be very patchy for the next half thanks to Victoria.

Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.

If QF/JQ domestic come back to 60-80% capacity within the next 3-6 months, can this generate enough cash for the group carry on perpetually with the long haul fleet in mothballs and crews on stand down? Or is there still too much cash being bled to have this as a medium-long term solution?

[Angle of Attack]

I’d guess no ECAMS, LH struggles to make more than a small profit at the best of times, with it in mothballs it will bleed far too heavily for even Domestic to make it up. Monday 29th will be the release after the ASX announcement, there may be some guidelines for when some of the LH aircraft are planned to start flying again, but I’d suggest prepare for thousands, if not 10 thousands to be made redundant across the whole business. You only have to look at pretty much every Airline anywhere and they are cutting back between 25-40%, it isn’t going to be any different at QF.

[wheels_down]

60-80% is unrealistic if your talking group wide. Group level with International your talking 20-30% by Christmas. 50% Domestic might be realistic by December but it’s all just speculation. Nobody knows. If Victoria screws up again, then December becomes Easter.

[Jeps]

Times like this I wish I didn’t agree with all the posts above, but unfortunately this forum is being rational and considered. It’s very sad to see my brothers and sisters in an industry we all love in dire straits because of the invisible enemy.

[slats11]

The other issue is you need to think in terms of yield or revenue rather than capacity.

All seats are not equal. 1 business pax (even full fare Y) MEL-BNE-MEL is higher yield than a family of 4 deeply discounted Y MEL-YBCG-MEL.

So the answer will depend on which pax come back faster

[PoppaJo]

There has not been much fear spread around in terms of implications to the balance sheet, but I think it’s pretty clear, it’s going to be nasty. They can’t drag International along in the mud for the next three years, it will sink the whole operation.

Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.

Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.

A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.

[Angle of Attack]

Well looking at the Newsroom with flight schedules they are planning 65-70% of Domestic capacity by October, of course that’s just the current plan, International I doubt there will be much at all this year, it really depends on the destination countries and they handle their outbreaks. Regardless I think the requirement to self isolate incoming international passengers into Australia is going to be around for an extremely long time, years probably.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

There has not been much fear spread around in terms of implications to the balance sheet, but I think it’s pretty clear, it’s going to be nasty. They can’t drag International along in the mud for the next three years, it will sink the whole operation.

Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.

Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.

A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.

A quarter to half JQ domestic passengers are foreign tourists? Not in my experience, maybe 5-10%. Theres also the fact Tigerair aren’t coming back, so that’s 15 airframes less in the low cost domestic market.

Also, Aussies who would have otherwise travelled overseas going on holiday at home. Air New Zealand are seeing more demand to Queenstown domestically than this time last year. With a bit of luck (and the Melbourne situation being contained) we might be at that point in 2-3 months.

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/06/air-new-zealand-ups-school-holiday-capacity-from-2019/

[Ollie Onion]

Yes, there is no doubt a strong domestic market here in NZ. Ski fields and Queenstown hotel bookings in July are UP 5% on this time last year, Air NZ has added hundreds off flights and a couple of domestic cabin crew I know have had their redundancy notice cancelled. Kiwi’s spend $15 billion per year on overseas travel, they can’t do that now so even if a quarter of that is spent domestically then it won’t be all bad. Jetstar town hall last week said they expect Jetstar NZ to fly 100% domestic schedule in August. I think domestic in Australia and NZ could be quite vibrant, the question is how you deal with the lack of international.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

AJ stated at the beginning of May that “we can continue like this until at least December 2021 if we had to”.

Any sudden need to offload staff is pure opportunism.

[wheels_down]

AJ stated at the beginning of May that “we can continue like this until at least December 2021 if we had to”.

Any sudden need to offload staff is pure opportunism.
At the cost of $3 billion. That wouldn’t be business as usual January 2022 onwards.

[Ragnor]

I would think middle management and other BS jobs will go first. Aussies traveling domestic will be higher than normal as long as borders open, when NZ let us in and vice versa we will also have FiJi. Plenty of bums on seats for NB operations.

[ozbiggles]

That’s the way, save my job but destroys everybody else.

Don’t worry, I’m sure there will be plenty of misery to go around.

[Wingspar]

Ah yes, throw 300+ colleagues under the bus + all those that will be demoted because of your vendetta against the company. You must be a joy to fly with
When did I say throw 300+ colleagues under the bus?
WHAT I said was we have an EA that QF only agreed to a few months a go. Hell they pushed it!
Now they want to change it?
Infact they haven’t demanded anything yet. Everyone’s jumping to hand over conditions!
Why don’t we just wait and hear what they have to say at the end of the week?
I have ideas but I’m not going to offer them up before I hear what they have to say.

[V-Jet]

And everyone voted for it because the Sunrise Fleet HAD to be ordered by the end of March. Great to know those jets are on their way:):)

[Keg]

The only difference between Qantas and ‘everyone else’ is the size of Qantas domestic network compared to international. So whilst I can see international being paired back quite strongly for the next 12-18 months, I’d be surprised if there was much of an impact on mainline SH crew apart from staying on MGH for the foreseeable future once they get back to about 75% of pre COVID levels. Of course that 75% mark may not be until close to December, or as wheels down Correctly put it, much later if Victoria stuffs up this community transmission.

What to do about international the in the interim? Who freaking knows!

A lot of this comes down to a vaccine. If one of those gets up and going within the next 6-12 months the 12-18 months after that could be flat out.

[V-Jet]

Could be. But won’t. Read up on the Depression. We’ve got another 9 months until the financials of March ‘20 hit. It’s not going to be pretty - most in the Western world are sitting pretty (not crew) because stimulus is so far covering their lifestyles. Nice break to get those home Reno’s done and catch up on Netflix.That fun is ending very soon. Then what?

There aren’t even enough syringes in the world to administer vaccines - that’s aside from any nasty mutations or even developing and administering the thing.

Kung Flu is the gift that will keep on giving....

[slats11]

A safe and effective vaccine is conceivable given the huge $ being spent this time, and given the many independent efforts currently underway. But previous SARS coronavirus vaccine research failed (the vaccine appeared to be hazardous rather than protective to animals who were exposed to the SARS virus after the vaccine). So a vaccine (and any plans dependent on a vaccine) are no more than plausible at this very early stage. I don't think it is realistic to plan on a vaccine.

The economy is sick. Far sicker than many people suspect. Huge money is being invested in stock markets which have recovered quickly. However the stock markets are now totally disconnected from fundamentals in the real world economy. As V-jet said, it is all being propped up by stimulus. But that has to end at some stage.

I suspect COVID will be with us indefinitely. It is much less lethal than previously thought - perhaps 0.1% mortality in well people < 70 years. It can be controlled somewhat - at a price. But I doubt it can be completely contained. Some difficult compromises will need to be taken balancing the twin priorities of stimulating the economy and protecting the vulnerable.

There are multiple geopolitical threats. There is an unpredictable US election in 5 months. And there is the growing spectre of China applying economic pressure to influence Australia's political leaders.

So overall, volatility and risk are both off the scale.

Warren Buffett sold his airline stock. All of it. Including carriers which were majority domestic operations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/warren-buffett-dumps-us-airline-stocks-saying-world-has-changed-after-covid-19
https://www.businessinsider.com/american-airlines-raising-billions-financing-supports-warren-buffett-exit-2020-6

[cynphil]

With Qantas saying they will update by the end of June, this coincides with the 3 month requirement for redundancy in most agreements.....being July,August and September. Jobkeeper ends on 27 September and government is consistently said it will end then. Also what a reborn VA will consist of should be known by then. So I am thinking it could be 20-30% of Qf workforce affected in some way or the other! Hopefully no more than that!

[Chad Gates]

Up to 9000 group wide, or 30ish%

[Ollie Onion]

Announcement tommorrow.

[Ragnor]

Had there been any email about this? I don’t have one about possible redundancies. Or is this pure speculation that there will be an announcement regarding lay offs.

[Ollie Onion]

No comms from Company, but a Manager has told me there will be a Group Wide announcement tomorrow which will include plans for up to 10,000 redundancies. Might just be a rumour but fits with the stock exchange announcement on Monday morning, my feeling is that narrow body domestic and Tasman operators will be largely untouched with the brunt coming in non operational and international wide body areas. Good luck everyone.

[Ragnor]

Well lets hope its a rumor, Surely the company and unions can come to a SLWOP agreement preserving jobs, after all we will be flying to Europe again one day.

[Ollie Onion]

I hope so as well, what I do know of Qantas though is their version of consultation is to listen to our Unions idea’s and then to do whatever they have decided to do.

[mmmbop]

I'm not sure AJ would be running a Town Hall the day they make an announcement such as that.

[wheels_down]

Such a large announcement such as that would require a ASX release before they announced it internally.

This stuff is fairly confidential outside a C line role so could be well off the mark.

[dragon man]

It’s coming it will be brutal.

[wheels_down]

Once in a generation chance to pull out a large amount of cost in one hit. Everyone is doing it.

[SandyPalms]

It’s coming

it’s coming tomorrow?

[dragon man]

it’s coming tomorrow?

Friday I was told.

[Cdash]

Dragon man has been on the money in the past...

enlighten us, any insight as to how many redundancies? Which work groups?
CR or VR?

I’m hearing quite dramatic fleet reduction crewmours inc a decent number of 330 and 737

[dr dre]

No comms from Company, but a Manager has told me there will be a Group Wide announcement tomorrow which will include plans for up to 10,000 redundancies. Might just be a rumour but fits with the stock exchange announcement on Monday morning, my feeling is that narrow body domestic and Tasman operators will be largely untouched with the brunt coming in non operational and international wide body areas. Good luck everyone.

Probably fits in with the rumour about standing up international Cabin Crew managers time deal with it. I doubt there will be 4 engined long haul flying for a few years, even when international does return it’ll be 787 and 330 only initially. There’s a lot of Cabin Crew needed to crew a 747 or 380 who won’t be needed for a few years.

International Pilots should escape this due to the long lead in times for training and a more complex structure of their agreements if crew are going to be moved. I would expect them to be stood down for the foreseeable future however.

[IsDon01]

Two days ago Mr LaSpina went to great lengths to debunk these redundancy rumours. His words were he would see CR as a failure and that’s not on the radar.

Now it is possible that there has been some seismic shift in thinking after 48 hours, and that all of you harbingers of doom are right all along, but, frankly, I reckon you’re all talking out of your collective arses.

How about we just wait until an announcement is made, if one is made at all? Then the doomsayers can gloat that their expert reading of the tea leaves from their cup of morning brew was correct all along. I hope those same prophets of doom will have the intestinal fortitude to admit they made the whole thing up if it turns out to be exactly what I expect it to be. Complete nonsense.

[Chairmans Lounge]

Might just be a rumour but fits with the stock exchange announcement on Monday morning

ASX website shows last announcement 2nd June. However rumours of mass layoffs are trickling into stock advisor sites.

[normanton]

Since we are all throwing wild allegations out there. My guess is 800 pilots surplus to requirements over the next 2 years. Pilots to exit the business through use of VR, LWOP, retirements, and CR.

Once the announcement is made to the ASX (share price goes up), discussions will swiftly start with AIPA (as mentioned by the CP) to enforce Allan's grand plan. Take what your offered or be made redundant.

[Keg]

I’m with IsDon. I can foresee redundancies across office and other areas depending on the nature of EAs. I can even foresee as many as 10K from across the group. CR for mainline pilots? Not at this stage. It probably depends on how flexible the majority of pilots want to be in order to save jobs.

[dragon man]

They want pilots to take LWOP at their own volition as it means they don’t have to pay them their 51 days of LSL and annual leave as we are now accumulating. Also I believe that CR has become a big problem as there is a belief that under a CR pilots under the long haul contract would then have the ability to displace pilots in short haul which they can’t do under a RIN using the integration clauses in the contract. Confused? So am I.

[cloudsurfng]

Dragon man has been on the money in the past...

enlighten us, any insight as to how many redundancies? Which work groups?
CR or VR?

I’m hearing quite dramatic fleet reduction crewmours inc a decent number of 330 and 737

they have said repeatedly that there will be opportunities both domestically and internationally, so nothing will be happening to 737/330/787.

[SandyPalms]

They want pilots to take LWOP at their own volition as it means they don’t have to pay them their 51 days of LSL and annual leave as we are now accumulating. Also I believe that CR has become a big problem as there is a belief that under a CR pilots under the long haul contract would then have the ability to displace pilots in short haul which they can’t do under a RIN using the integration clauses in the contract. Confused? So am I.

With regards to redundancy are you saying a SH pilot can be displaced by a LH pilot even if the LH pilot is more junior? Or are you saying they can be made redundant in seniority order, irrespective of which haul they are in?

[cloudsurfng]

In redundancy, there is still no displacement. The hauls are separate.

[crosscutter]

In redundancy, there is still no displacement. The hauls are separate.

Further, in response to a junior SH pilot, TLS replied ‘you’re in a pretty good spot’.

[dragon man]

I’ll say it again there is a belief that under a CR and the integration document a pilot facing CR from long haul can displace a more junior pilot in short haul. Don’t attack the messenger it is above my pay grade, I see where it is coming from but I’m sure there will be different views from different lawyers depending on who is paying them.

[normanton]

Let me guess. The company is saying LH can't displace SH (because it saves them money on training costs). But more senior pilots and or AIPA are of the belief that they can.

Well that's headed to the courts.

[dragon man]

Let me guess. The company is saying LH can't displace SH (because it saves them money on training costs). But more senior pilots and or AIPA are of the belief that they can.

Well that's headed to the courts.

Yes, that is correct

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Let me guess. The company is saying LH can't displace SH (because it saves them money on training costs). But more senior pilots and or AIPA are of the belief that they can.
Ha! This would be hilarious. So the bottom couple hundred 737 crews get made redundant and now a couple hundred ex career LHers have to get their heads around the 737 operation while commuting to PER and ADL - hard at the best of times but utterly masochistic on a limited domestic network - to fly a bunch of early Pilbaras or crew a handful of reserve days.
:hmm:

[Fonz121]

What? So if there are 200 pilots made redundant (pulling that figure out of my a*se), isn't it the bottom 200 on the list regardless of position?

[ScepticalOptomist]

What? So if there are 200 pilots made redundant (pulling that figure out of my a*se), isn't it the bottom 200 on the list regardless of position?

Thats how the EA reads - last on, first off. Purely by seniority number.

[Chad Gates]

There are 2 different EA’s. Does what it says in the LHEA apply to anybody on the SHEA. What a mess.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Ha! This would be hilarious. So the bottom couple hundred 737 crews get made redundant and now a couple hundred ex career LHers have to get their heads around the 737 operation while commuting to PER and ADL - hard at the best of times but utterly masochistic on a limited domestic network - to fly a bunch of early Pilbaras or crew a handful of reserve days.
:hmm:

Without looking at the seniority list - the last couple of hundred - using your figures - would be a mix of A380/A330/787 SOs and very junior 737 FOs.

Who would fill the vacancies? Probably no one in the short term, but I reckon a few career LHers might want the chance? Hard to tell. Depends how much this current crisis has altered their mindset?

[Poto]

For QF Mainline It’s not ‘displacement’ as such. CR is last on first off- Any Haul! After the CR is complete everyone grabs a chair where their seniority lands with the remaining chairs. Tino’s comment to the Junior SH lad was simply saying he is less likely to be stood down like, say a, A380 pilot. Obviously they don’t want to run an extensive CR program as it’s will cost a fortune. SU gets around this for now. Reduction in heads is inevitable. Reduction in Tech crew heads is a little more tricky.

[ScepticalOptomist]

There are 2 different EA’s. Does what it says in the LHEA apply to anybody on the SHEA. What a mess.

Add to the mix - what does the Integration Agreement say?

A mess is right. A mess QF will need to sort out if it goes down the CR path.

[OnceBitten]

There are 2 different EA’s. Does what it says in the LHEA apply to anybody on the SHEA. What a mess.

Integration Agreement, section 16. Basically redundancies will come from the bottom of the Q seniority list, not the SH or LH EA you are on.

[cloudsurfng]

The integration agreement says new hire pilots will be made redundant before Q or A list pilots. (Not sure where that is on the list, but if it gets that far there are big problems!). It then says pilots will be made redundant in accordance with the “Pilots Agreement”. which agreement are you on? That will be the question...

I’ve always been of the understanding the seniority applied, but only within the agreement I was on when it came to redundancy. ie, things don’t looks great for LH at the moment, it could just as easily be SH next time.

it would seem this is the company position as well.

im confident now however, that CR will be avoided.

[Angle of Attack]

As Gazza stated, in a Redundancy situation regardless of which haul it is purely on Seniority number as current agreements stand.

In a RIN in LH , SH can not be touched as per displacements, however the company could choose to make SH positions available to bid to as they did in the 767 RIN.

Its pretty cut and dry, I don’t believe a heavy CR will be pursued for pilots right now, (too expensive) they will prefer extended standown. Not ruling it out but training costs will be too high while no one in the world knows when LH flights will resume.

The other issue is an amendment to the EA, but that requires majority vote by members in that EA.

Or the nuclear option could be QF go to fair work to demand redundancy on fleet and rank out of seniority, which would be fairly unlikely to succeed seeing as they forced in the LH vote during the Virus period.

[Fonz121]

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/companies/looming-staff-cuts-at-qantas-likely-larger-than-the-2014-purge-of-5000-20200624-p555st.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feedBut now it is time to deal with staffing levels.

The most difficult to deal with will be the international pilots. It is understood Qantas will initially offer voluntary redundancies for pilots over 60 years old, but may need to go to compulsory redundancies.

[cloudsurfng]

Below 570 ish, we are all ‘new hire’ pilots. We appear on Q list and A list. If redundancy got this far, there are specific provisions on how redundancy works.

as a new hire pilot, it is reverse seniority..in accordance with the pilots agreement. If you are a SH pilot...are you employed on the LH award?

[ScepticalOptomist]

Below 570 ish, we are all ‘new hire’ pilots. We appear on Q list and A list. If redundancy got this far, there are specific provisions on how redundancy works.

as a new hire pilot, it is reverse seniority..in accordance with the pilots agreement. If you are a SH pilot...are you employed on the LH award?

I believe you are misunderstanding Section 16 - it is purely by seniority - then by what else the redundancy sections of each SH and LH award specify. When it comes to CR there is no SH/LH differentiation in regards to your overall seniority. One big list.

[OnceBitten]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Could not have explained it better. Thanks SO.

[cloudsurfng]

I believe you are misunderstanding Section 16 - it is purely by seniority - then by what else the redundancy sections of each SH and LH award specify. When it comes to CR there is no SH/LH differentiation in regards to your overall seniority. One big list.

where does it say it’s purely by global seniority? It says ‘in accordance with the pilots agreement’

its not what’s right...it’s whose lawyers can argue the best.

anyway, I’m confident that noone will leave unless they want to..and that as a collective, we can find a way to support everyone’s position.

[crosscutter]

Philosophers have been debating whether egalitarianism or utilitarianism is superior for thousands of years. I don’t think pilots are going to solve it. Fortunately, a consensus won’t be required. Sometimes certainty, even if the initial outcome seemed unfavourable, is more beneficial than a death by a thousand cuts.

[Blueskymine]

Actually during the 767 RIN the company advised that CR would apply to surplus positions.

So if you find yourself in a surplus position, that position can be made redundant.

You also cannot displace someone from a different award.

So if Qantas go down the CR path, your position can become redundant, and if there is nowhere else for you to go, the retrenchment list will be your home.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Around half a dozen A330s headed to the desert too according to the SMH today. That leaves a pretty small international fleet for the post COVID network.

[dr dre]

Around half a dozen A330s headed to the desert too according to the SMH today. That leaves a pretty small international fleet for the post COVID network.

That's an engineering request to temporarily store aircraft in a low humidity environment rather than permanent disposal of the aircraft.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

That's an engineering request to temporarily store aircraft in a low humidity environment rather than permanent disposal of the aircraft.

True, but also a fair indication that they won’t be required for quite a long time

[dragon man]

True, but also a fair indication that they won’t be required for quite a long time

Or they are aircraft close to needing their life extension done and not worth spending money on.

[Chad Gates]

There were a number of A330's that were getting close to cycles limit. The general consensus was that the JQ787's would replace them.

[stiffwing]

Thats why the ‘QP’ regos (-300) are doing the flying atm, both domestic and international, as they have less cycles than the others.
I would be stunned if they go to the states, maybe to YBAS if there is room?
Or perhaps kick singair out of there🤬$$$$$.
But I’ve been wrong before.

[morno]

I would be stunned if they go to the states, maybe to YBAS if there is room?
Or perhaps kick singair out of there🤬$$$$$.
But I’ve been wrong before.

Why the angry face? Singapore are just as entitled to pay to park their planes there as anyone else

[Con Catenator]

This from the AFR late last night:

Qantas has called in its investment bankers to help consider its liquidity position ahead of its June 30 balance date.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.114%2C$multiply_0.582%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_9 6%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/e_sharpen:25%2Cq_85%2Cf_auto/e84ee55872d9d47522c91ca4e5532d069d2aec0eQantas Airways is considering its financial position ahead of its June 30 balance date. Paul Rovere

The bankers, including long-time adviser Macquarie Capital, are understood to be taking Qantas through a range of options including a $1 billion-plus equity raising.

Sources said Qantas' board, led by chairman Richard Goyder, had yet to sign off on a deal, However, it's understood discussions were set to continue throughout Wednesday night and into Thursday.

While Qantas has resisted calls to raise equity during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is easy to see how the board could decide it was prudent to top up its capital position in light of the circumstances, and ongoing uncertainty about when conditions will improve. There's also the possibility that there could be a second wave of COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, which would prolong the pain for Qantas.

[dragon man]

While the share price has recovered from its lows and share market is defying gravity seems to me it would be a very sensible thing to do.

[ampclamp]

Raising cash from investors is better than accruing even more debt imo. With mass redundancies now being touted they will need the cash.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/looming-staff-cuts-at-qantas-likely-larger-than-the-2014-purge-of-5000-20200624-p555st.html

[Vindiesel]

Shares in trading halt.

[brokenagain]

6000 jobs to go, 15000 to remain stood down.

CEO speech – Qantas Group Post-COVID recovery plan (https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200625/pdf/44jy122rsl7blv.pdf)

[gordonfvckingramsay]

I seem to remember Joyce saying during one of those babble fest, town halls that QF could hold out till the end of 2021, now they can’t. He’s been economic with the truth somewhere, my guess is that this is him signals to both the government and the unions in order to get either of them to bend to his will. Only a despicable prick would make statements suggesting one thing and then do the opposite, and to think that those town hall briefings were dripping with an undying commitment to the wellbeing of QF staff.

[Seaview2]

ASX announcement from Qantas that I can’t post a link to because of stupid Pprune rules. Anyway says 6,000 people to depart with an announcement later today.

google Qantas asx and you will you will find it.

Good luck everyone and our thoughts are with the 6,000 people affected by this.

[Maggie Island]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/qantas-launches-1-36b-placement-20200625-p555y3

After a long night of deliberations, Qantas Airways has launched a $1.36 billion institutional placement and unveiled its three year post-COVID recovery plan, which will see more than 100 aircraft grounded for the next 12 months.The deal – which was foreshadowed by Street Talk on Wednesday evening (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p555w5) – was launched on Thursday morning, with the help of investment banks Macquarie and JPMorgan. It is understood Luminis Partners also advised on the deal.

The fully underwritten placement was priced at $3.65 a share, which represented a 12.9 per cent discount to Qantas' last close.

It would be followed by a $500 million non-underwritten share purchase plan.

Like all airlines, Qantas has been on equity raising watchlists since the pandemic struck but up until Thursday had resisted calls to make a trip to equity capital markets.

It raised $550 million debt in May and $1.05 billion in March to shore up its cash position.

When Thursday's share purchase plan and placement were finished, Qantas would have pro forma liquidity of $4.6 billion, with $3.6 billion in cash and $1 billion of undrawn facilities.

The announcement of the raising coincided with the release of Qantas' three year COVID-19 recovery strategy

[SandyPalms]

2900 pilots to be stood down with 220 actual job losses. I think they will get that with VR. 100 aircraft to be grounded. The group widebody fleet is only 65 aircraft so it will effect narrow body pilots around the group also.

[WannaBeBiggles]

Interesting quote.

Many of the 6,000 of the job losses we're announcing are people who have spent decades here

RIN on the 747 and 380 fleet?

[dr dre]

Interesting quote.
RIN on the 747 and 380 fleet?

It doesn’t specifically mention pilots, could be any of the numerous ground staff, cabin crew, engineering or office roles.

Plus I would think VR or retirements would be included in those going, and they would’ve had “decades of service”.

I think 220 pilots across the group would easily be managed with retirements and maybe a slight VR package. I’m fairly sure no CR will come out of this, for pilots at least.

[Chairmans Lounge]

The announcement of the raising coincided with the release of Qantas' three year COVID-19 recovery strategy

Going by this statement, QF thinks the world will return to normal within 3 years.

Even with some overseas travel resuming inside that timeframe, that’s a long time for international pilots to be stood down.

[dragon man]

220 pilots to retire ? Not a chance they won’t even get that many without a good VR.

[dr dre]

220 pilots to retire ? Not a chance they won’t even get that many without a good VR.

Not just mainline, across the group as well. There’ll probably be a lot of other pilots, not only from the 747, who’ll hang up the hat if it looks like it’ll be a few years before getting back into the saddle. I’m told quite a few are ready to retire, they’re just waiting to see if a VR will be offered, but will go anyway if one isn’t.

There’ll also be a small number who take LWOP, much smaller than 2014 due to worldwide aviation being in a downturn but some do have other things lined up they can do for a few years.

In 2014 AIPA said the VR package on offer wasn’t enough (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/pilots-not-happy-with-qantas-redundancy-offer-20140519-38jo4.html), but evidently it was because enough took it in the end.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

2900 pilots to be stood down with 220 actual job losses. I think they will get that with VR. 100 aircraft to be grounded. The group widebody fleet is only 65 aircraft so it will effect narrow body pilots around the group also.
“Up to 100 aircraft for up to 12 months”
There are plenty of narrowbodies still grounded right now.

[SandyPalms]

It doesn’t say they will all come from mainline. I think there will be a VR. A “good” VR, may not happen though. Many guys will reach 65 while this is ongoing and will have to retire without any SH spots. Time will tell, but until Sept and the end of Jobkeeper nobody will do anything. It will be different when the tap turns off. I don’t think they fear being held to ransom as being paid nothing is the alternative. If people say no, they will just shrug and let time pass.

[machtuk]

Well that's that, it was inevitable but I guess a lot where living in hope!
A new era has dawned.

[Chris2303]

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/06/breaking-qantas-group-to-axe-6000-jobs/?fbclid=IwAR0-Rbj_Ailg6Qr25dVB5JwikJHpdFAYLXmDfnj7AnRRgkQB91AQwOi-Yog

[Fonz121]

220 pilots to retire ? Not a chance they won’t even get that many without a good VR.

Joyce just said A380 to be out for three years. Will that change a few minds?

[ExtraShot]

So it’s 220 pilot positions across the group?

The 747 accounts for around 150 odd positions from mainline. So there’s 70 or so to account for from elsewhere..

[normanton]

Can the company pick and choose who they offer VR too?

Why would they offer it to anyone who is due to retire in the next 1-2 years when they know you will just remain stood down?

[dr dre]

Can the company pick and choose who they offer VR too?

Why would they offer it to anyone who is due to retire in the next 1-2 years when they know you will just remain stood down?

Yes, in 2014 it was offered to 747 or 767 pilots only, and then the exact numbers at their discretion.

Age discrimination laws will probably prevent them from setting age restrictions on the ability to take a package.

[SandyPalms]

Joyce just said A380 to be out for three years. Will that change a few minds?

My bet is it will never return. It appears the gravy train has run out of track.

[MelbourneFlyer]

Alan Joyce says all A380s are off to the Mojave Desert and "will be parked for at least three years".

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-a380-retirement

[Chad Gates]

3 years is the length of this recovery plan. I suggest that is the rational behind the 3 years comment. I doubt we will see it again.

[maggot]

Ah another thread on qf from bnea320

[maggot]

It doesn’t say they will all come from mainline. I think there will be a VR. A “good” VR, may not happen though. Many guys will reach 65 while this is ongoing and will have to retire without any SH spots. Time will tell, but until Sept and the end of Jobkeeper nobody will do anything. It will be different when the tap turns off. I don’t think they fear being held to ransom as being paid nothing is the alternative. If people say no, they will just shrug and let time pass.

>60 you'd be mad not to take any VR

bird in the hand and all that

[maggot]

So it’s 220 pilot positions across the group?

The 747 accounts for around 150 odd positions from mainline. So there’s 70 or so to account for from elsewhere..
not clear just yet
yep not just jumbo crew.

[SandyPalms]

It is the group. Mainline is the largest proportion, but it’s not all mainline.

[maggot]

"Can a stand down be indefinite?"


*words but not an actual answer*

[Chairmans Lounge]

There is “significant uncertainty” as to when flying levels will support the return of the A380.

Joyce said he regretted the staff losses but the “crisis has left us no choice” and that he’s committed to providing those affected with as much support as he can.

“That includes preserving as many jobs as possible through stand-downs, offering voluntary rather than compulsory redundancies where possible, and providing large severance payouts for long-serving employees in particular,” he said.


A380 not returning and large payouts for long-serving employees. Join the dots

[dr dre]

"Can a stand down be indefinite?"


*words but not an actual answer*

The words from management have been quite clear, as long as they are planning on your airplane coming back into service at some point then yes you can be stood down until that time.

It is the group. Mainline is the largest proportion, but it’s not all mainline.

Maybe JQ 787 as well?

But it’s also 220 positions surplus. Not wholesale redundancies, they could be dealt with via LWOP, via reduced rosters, part time rosters, month on month off etc. Combine that to the expected upcoming retirements and I think we’ll be a long way from any CR

[dragon man]

VR will be for pilots over 60 based on time remaining till 65. What that figure is I have no idea but I do know that the American Airlines scheme appealed to them . They were getting 50 hours a month pay till 65.

[maggot]

The words from management have been quite clear, as long as they are planning on your airplane coming back into service at some point then yes you can be stood down until that time.



Maybe JQ 787 as well?

But it’s also 220 positions surplus. Not wholesale redundancies, they could be dealt with via LWOP, via reduced rosters, part time rosters, month on month off etc. Combine that to the expected upcoming retirements and I think we’ll be a long way from any CR
does jetstar have LOFO?

[Fonz121]

does jetstar have LOFO?


Yes they do apparently

[patty50]

Flight attendants seem to have been spared relatively speaking. Not much point getting rid of cheap QCCA but I would’ve thought with huge international reductions more would go. Maybe MAM all go to zero and some international are sent to domestic.

How many ground crew are there currently employed? Can’t tell if 1500 is a major percentage or not. Swissport will be cheering assuming they still exist in the future. Jetstar might get punished for going on strike.

More engineers gone, plenty might go voluntarily, many have 40+ years of service.

The office critters hit hard again another 1500 gone. All IT contractors gone...lucky the company doesn’t rely too heavily on functional IT systems...

[krismiler]

Jetstar Asia are having redundancies as well.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/budget-carrier-jetstar-asia-to-cut-a-quarter-of-its-mainly-singaporean-workforce?utm_source=STSmartphone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-06-25+11%3A00%3A17


SINGAPORE - Budget carrier Jetstar Asia is cutting a quarter of its mainly Singapore-based workforce in July as part of "difficult but necessary decisions".The cuts of up to 180 people across all parts of its business affect 26 per cent of Jetstar Asia's workforce, even as most of its remaining employees will stay furloughed until the end of the year.

The announcement comes on Thursday (June 25) as the Qantas Group, which includes Jetstar, detailed its post-Covid-19 recovery plan. The three-year plan will involve measures including reducing the group's pre-crisis workforce by at least 6,000 people across all job roles, from baggage handlers to corporate non-flying workers.

The early retirement of some planes and possible return of leased aircraft also means some 220 pilots will have to be let go.

Jetstar Asia chief executive officer Bara Pasupathi said the "single biggest shock to the aviation industry" caused by the pandemic has forced tough decisions so the airline can "remain agile while staying true to our low-cost DNA".

Five Airbus A320 aircraft from Jetstar Asia's fleet will be retired, reducing the budget carrier's total fleet to 13 aircraft.

"There is no doubt that the travel market will look very different moving forward, so it is imperative that we change and adapt," he said in a statement.

"Singapore and Changi Airport remain a strategic footprint for Jetstar Asia and the Qantas Group and we look forward to growing passenger numbers further through innovation and enhancing the customer experience in the future."

He thanked the Singapore Government which "acted swiftly and decisively" to support the aviation sector through its budget measures, which have helped mitigate the situation.

The aviation industry and tourism sector are eligible for the highest tier of support provided by the Government's Jobs Support Scheme (https://www.straitstimes.com/business/over-130-firms-return-97m-in-job-support-payouts)announced in April, qualifying for 75 per cent wage support throughout the nine months that the scheme is in effect.

Qantas Group said it still expects to break even for the financial year ending in September despite the significant reduction in revenue due to the coronavirus. It has needed to take "swift action to reduce its cash burn as travel demand evaporated".

[KRUSTY 34]

It is the group. Mainline is the largest proportion, but it’s not all mainline.

Just to be clear. Does “The Group” include Jetstar and Qantaslink (ie Eastern/Sunstate). In terms of Seniority based CR that is?

[Renton Field]

I reckon I’d speak for the guys that do actually care over the road,but to any and all of our brothers and sisters in arms that may be affected by this,genuine thoughts and sympathies from a humble,currently-stood -down- but-hopeful line driver at VA.
Cheers...and hold fast.

[Arnold E]

I note that the 380's are going to be stored in the USA, anyone have an idea why they wouldn't be stored at Alice Springs ?

[Green.Dot]

I reckon I’d speak for the guys that do actually care over the road,but to any and all of our brothers and sisters in arms that may be affected by this,genuine thoughts and sympathies from a humble,currently-stood -down- but-hopeful line driver at VA.
Cheers...and hold fast.

thanks buddy, good luck to you guys too. It will be a great day when we hear most of the callsigns in the sky again. Cheers all

[nvfr]

Looks like it’s hitting Jetstar NZ as well. I like the way they have said all along no redundancy. Look how true that turned out to be.

[Stickshift3000]

I note that the 380's are going to be stored in the USA, anyone have an idea why they wouldn't be stored at Alice Springs ?

I guess it depends where they currently are, not all of them are in Australia. Parking space and engineer support are also more likely in the USA. They're also a bit closer then to Mojave's boneyard...

[ScepticalOptomist]

The words from management have been quite clear, as long as they are planning on your airplane coming back into service at some point then yes you can be stood down until that time.


What they say - and would like - is different from what they CAN do.

If there are no government restrictions imposed, the stand downs cease. Then they are dealing with a business issue - if there aren’t enough customers. If they decide they are overstocked with staff, then they need to follow the relevant EAs with respect to redundancies etc.

Irrespective of what is implied, you can’t be kept stood down forever - I wish people would realise this. It’s not up to the company to decide when it applies - otherwise no one would ever be made redundant - they’d just be stood down indefinitely.. that’s not how IR law works.

[unobtanium]

Maybe they can start from the top. For such a small airline does quantas really need 5 CEOs?

https://www.qantas.com/au/en/qantas-group/acting-responsibly/our-leadership.html

[Fujiroll76]

Just to be clear. Does “The Group” include Jetstar and Qantaslink (ie Eastern/Sunstate). In terms of Seniority based CR that is?


Its all very confusing when they don't actually stipulate individual entities.

I think for QantasLink (Dash) they will be OK - As for the Q300 I believe their time is limited...The 380 equivalent. Theres a spot for them (somewhere) but the 787 (Q400) does whats needed for the indefinite future.

Enjoy your seat however, doubt there will be any positive movement for quit sometime.

[wheels_down]

Jetstar Singapore removing 6 Aircraft bringing its fleet down to 13. Cutting 1/4 of its headcount.

Not much info on Kiwi or Japan.

[plainmaker]

Sounds like almost all the international terminal ground staff have got the axe. Takes a huge chunk out of TWU representation (and remove another thorn from Joyce's garden). Just wonder if the Transport Guys at Mascot will be spared - or will that go to Carbridge as well.

[Weapons Grade]

Yes they do apparently

Actually, they do not have LOFO.
A check of their EBA does not specify any such reverse order.

[Wingspar]

What they say - and would like - is different from what they CAN do.

If there are no government restrictions imposed, the stand downs cease. Then they are dealing with a business issue - if there aren’t enough customers. If they decide they are overstocked with staff, then they need to follow the relevant EAs with respect to redundancies etc.

Irrespective of what is implied, you can’t be kept stood down forever - I wish people would realise this. It’s not up to the company to decide when it applies - otherwise no one would ever be made redundant - they’d just be stood down indefinitely.. that’s not how IR law works.

Yes, they can say ‘no useful work’ all they want but if the international borders come down then there is no legitimate reason to stand someone down.
It becomes a commercial issue of demand!
I foresee an argument from the A380 crew when the time comes if QF still insist on standing them down.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Yes, they can say ‘no useful work’ all they want but if the international borders come down then there is no legitimate reason to stand someone down.
It becomes a commercial issue of demand!
I foresee an argument from the A380 crew when the time comes if QF still insist on standing them down.

Exactly right!

[SandyPalms]

Yep, without question.

Stand-Down Provisions

Notwithstanding any other clause of this Agreement, the Company is entitled to deduct payments from the pay of a pilot for any day on which the pilot cannot be usefully employed because of any strike, stoppage or any other limitation of work for which the Company cannot be held responsible subject to the following conditions:

Once we are past the government restrictions, it can’t be considered that the Company cannot be held responsible

[Fonz121]

Borders would have to be open with no covid-related restrictions on people entering both here and at the destination for that to be the case I'd have thought.

[dragon man]

Borders would have to be open with no covid-related restrictions on people entering both here and at the destination for that to be the case I'd have thought.

If here the USA and UK were open then the 380 could return to its previous routes therefore no reason for those crews to be stood down.

[normanton]

Yep, without question.

Stand-Down Provisions

Notwithstanding any other clause of this Agreement, the Company is entitled to deduct payments from the pay of a pilot for any day on which the pilot cannot be usefully employed because of any strike, stoppage or any other limitation of work for which the Company cannot be held responsible subject to the following conditions:

Once we are past the government restrictions, it can’t be considered that the Company cannot be held responsible
So come July 2021 when Allan says international will be at 10%. Can you please confirm you are saying you would like 90% (1350) pilots made redundant so those at the top can do some ‘useful work’ ?

[SandyPalms]

Norm, Norm, Norm. Again with the hatred of those senior. That is the legal clause. Are you suggesting we should amend it? I don’t want anybody made redundant. If amendments are to be made, the company must negotiate.

I would add that company will ask for concessions. Many of those will, most likely, adversely effect those at the top half to benefit only those at the very bottom. Your attitude won’t be helping them when their finger is poised over the yes or no button. Something to think about.

[The_Equaliser]

The clause in the EA partially quoted above sets out the triggers for the stand down. There is nothing written in the EA or the general stand down info available at Fair Work that outlines a process or trigger for stand up. It will be the FWC that will have to rule on this. What is the political make up of the FWC these days, who appointed them? Where will they sit in terms of the needs of the economy and the health of Qantas versus the interests of the A380 guys. Will the government be supportive of the A380 pilots position or join the proceedings to offer a counter view. Good luck in predicting how this will turn out.

[cloudsurfng]

I doubt there would be too much of an issue claiming that the ‘no useful work’ was due covid, even when the borders open and therefore beyond the company’s control. The movement of people is likely to be heavily restricted for years to come.

what a sh$t day.

[ShandywithSugar]

Jetstar Newcastle pilots + crew , Maintenance and Perth pilots closing. Best wishes to all.

[StudentInDebt]

Actually, they do not have LOFO.
A check of their EBA does not specify any such reverse order.
It doesn’t use that term but 24.2.1(e) and 24.2.4(b) could be considered to mean the same thing (assuming LOFO is Last On, First Off)

[34R]

I doubt very much the majority of my colleagues will see fit to hamstring themselves to prevent my inevitable reunion with the scrap heap.... and to be honest I wouldn't expect them to either.

Qantas has always been the land of the have's and the have more's. On the one hand there are people hanging on for dear life and on the other are people squabbling about superannuation implications.... quite surreal really.

I went through this with Ansett and am preparing to go through it again now. If you are in the firing line, I'm thinking of you.

[normanton]

Norm, Norm, Norm. Again with the hatred of those senior. That is the legal clause. Are you suggesting we should amend it? I don’t want anybody made redundant. If amendments are to be made, the company must negotiate.

I would add that company will ask for concessions. Many of those will, most likely, adversely effect those at the top half to benefit only those at the very bottom. Your attitude won’t be helping them when their finger is poised over the yes or no button. Something to think about.
Pretty much what Equaliser said.

You have your definition and reasoning, the company has a different view. It's the same with redundancy LH vs SH. If it goes that far it will end up in the courts. Stuff like this has never been tested. Your not right, your not wrong, it is just an opinion.

If you are employed on the 380 and the company says there is no useful work for them for 3 years (borders closed or not) then you can remain stood down (yep it sucks).

I do not believe that allows you to use your seniority to jump ship elsewhere, simply because another fleet is maybe flying 10%. That's ridiculous.

[maggot]

It doesn’t use that term but 24.2.1(e) and 24.2.4(b) could be considered to mean the same thing (assuming LOFO is Last On, First Off)
yeah that's what i meant by lofo; redundency in reverse order

[Feetweet]

A lot of the senior QF pilots should really treat this as a golden opportunity to wind down, to travel a bit (when able) etc. VR would be great but many of us do this job because we love flying and it is bloody hard to give up, not because of the money but job satisfaction. This period will give those who don't want to retire just yet, time to really explore what retirement will be like, and hopefully in a year or so, get back to flying.

[Chad Gates]

Jetstar Newcastle pilots + crew , Maintenance and Perth pilots closing. Best wishes to all.

Indeed. Best wishes. Newcastle based could just commute to Sydney, but Perth based will be facing major upheaval

[Ragnor]

QF guys Looking at JQ eba, why?
GE email today wanting to reduce 550 AUSNZ no indication of pilots or cabin crew, NTL and PH crew will be given options For a base most likely limited choices given the environment. 787 crew stood just like QF international. All in all JQ pilots NB and WB will be stood up as needed no word of any being made redundant.

[Middle.Marker]

Odd that there’s no mention of JQ 787 redundancies. Fair enough Per base due no DPS flying, but closing NTL ? Surely there’s more demand for NTL tech crew than SO’s for the next three years. If any intl comes back it’s probably going to be DPS runs and Japan ex CNS. The longer three crew runs weren’t doing well even pre rona anyway from what I heard. I.e HNL.

[Middle.Marker]

GE email today wanting to reduce 550 AUSNZ no indication of pilots or cabin crew, NTL and PH crew will be given options For a base most likely limited choices given the environment. 787 crew stood just like QF international. All in all JQ pilots NB and WB will be stood up as needed no word of any being made redundant.
Answered my question a minute before I posted it well done 👏🏻👏🏻

[wheels_down]

Are those Perth and Newcastle Pilots being offered other opportunities to relocate or is it goodbye and that’s it?

[Ragnor]

They are going to be given options, my guess SY and ML will most likely be it at this stage.

[Lookleft]

The NTL maintenance base is also being closed and moved to Melbourne. I think that JQ over time will move to only have 3 major bases. What the current situation has demonstrated is that the bigger bases are easier to administer.

[Ragnor]

I don’t know about three, ADL and CNS bases definitely have their place in the network post COVID, OOL could be looked at tho.

[wheels_down]

Cairns should only grow in the medium term with countless neo opportunities into Japan and Asia. The 787 base perhaps not though.

[TimmyTee]

Gotta lol at the mods quickly closing a second Qantas thread, despite 5 or 6 near-identical VA threads jockeying for top spot on the forums.. Not saying this shouldn’t have been merged, just noting the double mod standards when it comes to the daily new “Sky is falling” VA thread..

[ozbiggles]

This is your major area of concern tonight?

[maggot]

Gotta lol at the mods quickly closing a second Qantas thread, despite 5 or 6 near-identical VA threads jockeying for top spot on the forums.. Not saying this shouldn’t have been merged, just noting the double mod standards when it comes to the daily new “Sky is falling” VA thread..
i suspect it's more the multi-user poster involved

[TimmyTee]

This is your major area of concern tonight?

Of course not. But most other nights the poor VA guys and girls are subjected to new threads proclaiming that their place of employment will cease to exist (usually supported by a single new news article).
Just asking the mods to take note of this tidy up and apply it to the other threads as well.

[Angle of Attack]

No disrespect but International is fuc$ed for at least a year or 2 regardless of airline.

[Ando1Bar]

No disrespect but International is fuc$ed for at least a year or 2 regardless of airline.

Wow, what an amazing insight.

[Blueskymine]

A380 crew will be back.

Unfortunately it will be in an A350. But it’s better than the alternative and I gather after 3 years they’ll take anything...

Aviation really really sucks sometimes.

My gut feeling is however the recovery will be a lot faster than anyone imagined. Travel demand is still
there. It’s just restricted. As soon as the stimulus ticket sales go out, the seats will fill up and people will get moving. Just like domestic.

[Lapon]

A380 crew will be back.

Unfortunately it will be in an A350. But it’s better than the alternative and I gather after 3 years they’ll take anything...

Aviation really really sucks sometimes.

My gut feeling is however the recovery will be a lot faster than anyone imagined. Travel demand is still
there. It’s just restricted. As soon as the stimulus ticket sales go out, the seats will fill up and people will get moving. Just like domestic.

I agree. There are a lot of glass half empty types here, but like you I believe the problem is that travel is restricted rather than the desire to travel has evaporated.

[Angle of Attack]

Prove me wrong.....

[Angle of Attack]

What I mean is you can crap on and whinge but real international unrestricted travel is long off, at least a year for bubbles and 2-3 years for unrestricted travel, It’s dead in the water....

[ozbiggles]

Hong Kong just revived 26 positive Covid results off a inbound Emirates flight from Doha. From memory it was something like people in rows 20,22, 24, 26, 30, 32 etc etc. No one is saying they caught it on the aircraft but do you really think Australia and NZ are just going to import plane loads of Covid passengers from around the world. The fallout from Victoria should be enough to guide the jeez it may be the dregs but it is half full types. People can have desires, but that won’t get you through customs.

[Blueskymine]

Once there’s a vaccine it’ll be like the malaria pills we used to have to take. You get a shot and you head overseas.

I fully suspect though like SARs, it’ll burn out and become less severe and more like a common cold.

[Buster Hyman]

You get a shot and you head overseas.
It used to be three shots at one stage, early '70's, and you had a little Health book that went with your Passport....those were the days!

[Shot Nancy]

[/QUOTE]Hong Kong just revived 26 positive Covid results off a inbound Emirates flight from Doha.
[QUOTE]

https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/flights_trains_en.pdf

Can't deny entry if residents.

[Slezy9]

I fully suspect though like SARs, it’ll burn out and become less severe and more like a common cold.

What are you basing that on?

[Ollie Onion]

It is already happening, read the reports coming out of Italy, they are saying that people who get it now and would have died 3 months ago are now not dying. They reckon it will fizzle out this year. The Brits disagree, they say it is becoming less fatal but will take 2-3 years to fizzle out. They both agree though it will be less fatal.

[dr dre]

A380 crew will be back.

Unfortunately it will be in an A350. But it’s better than the alternative and I gather after 3 years they’ll take anything...

Aviation really really sucks sometimes.

Unfortunately? I think any pilot getting the chance to fly an A350 should be over the moon. It’s an infinitely better aircraft than an A380 which is the biggest white elephant in aviation. The A350 is better for the group, more fuel efficient, more flexible, gives the ability to open new routes which will give the company a competitive advantage. Having A350s in the group right now would probably mean a faster return to sustainable load factors and the normal resumption of international schedules.

[Wingspar]

It makes sense that if the A380’s are intended to be out for three years then slowly introduce A350’s instead.
Just have to get over the whole capital expenditure thing.
Mind you I heard AJ say yesterday that the capital raising was in part to help Qantas invest after the recovery??

[Wingspar]

Actually, the wording was with reference to the capital raising;

”to capitalise on opportunities aligned with its strategy.”

?????

ASX

How much for a A350 at the moment?

[maggot]

Yeah i heard that too but....

[Wingspar]

I’m starting to believe my own crap now but why do a raising when you spruce to the market you have the ability to run in hibernation until the end of
2021?
Ok, so 600 million for redundancy payments.
Whats the rest for?

[blubak]

I note that the 380's are going to be stored in the USA, anyone have an idea why they wouldn't be stored at Alice Springs ?
Its cheaper,dont listen to all the spin about them being in better condition when & if they decide to fly them again,after sitting over there for well over 12 months,getting them serviceable will be a nightmare.

[Capt_SNAFU]

If the 380s are there that long it is not just maintenance that is a problem, you effectively have to start the fleet from scratch again. Train the trainers etc etc.

[Lookleft]

When A380's start becoming freighters then they are already in the country that has the world's biggest freight companies.

[normanton]

They spent $500m on refurbs for 6 of them. At least 6 will come back. My guess is the remaining money from the share raising will be used to buy 350s.

[pig dog]

I guess a fair bit of the capital raising will go towards paying this little gem off. This was buried deep within the ASX announcement and was glossed over using weasel words however I read it as “fuel hedging losses are costing QF $11-12 million per week!”

“FUEL HEDGING
The Group’s fuel was fully hedged for the second half of FY20, and 90% hedged for the first half of FY21. With the significant decline in flying activity, the Group’s overall capacity flown has resulted in a substantial reduction in fuel consumption from April 2020 and the anticipated decline in consumption to June 2021 will lead to the non-cash recognition of hedge ineffectiveness of $550–$600 million in the FY20 statutory result.”

[unobtanium]

Its cheaper,dont listen to all the spin about them being in better condition when & if they decide to fly them again,after sitting over there for well over 12 months,getting them serviceable will be a nightmare.

Easier (cheaper) for engineers in the US to store + reactivate aircraft, who wouldn't whinge about every small little detail and non compliance. Also if they decide not to activate it, noneed to fly Alice Springs > USA again just to scrap.

[noclue]

What does the recently completed share buy back (at $5.56) and now the SPP at 3.65 mean for the bottom line? It gives them access to more cash, but it would be a net loss wouldn’t it?

[ozbiggles]

You have to raise the money to pay for the handout Joyce will get when this is all ‘over’.

[Chairmans Lounge]

When A380's start becoming freighters then they are already in the country that has the world's biggest freight companies.

Not sure the economics of operating/maintaining such a small fleet would be worth it.

[Blueskymine]

You have to raise the money to pay for the handout Joyce will get when this is all ‘over’.

love him, hate him, I don’t care. However I’m glad he’s the one in the big seat. It means the company will survive.

At the end of the day Qantas ain’t a government entity anymore. Many still behave as if it is.

[krismiler]

Realistically, when the government sends in the army over a few cases of COVID - 19 in Victoria, international flying is unlikely to resume this year with the exception of NZ and possibly limited travel bubbles. Profitable international flying will take even longer to come back and the network planners will be starting from scratch with a clean sheet of paper rather than simply reinstating the previous routes. Due to the distances involved in international flying from Australia, widebody aircraft are normally required to reach most destinations in Asia and beyond, these will be difficult to fill at first. Running a hub through Darwin with the B737s into SE Asia could be considered until direct routes become viable again.

City pairs which previously supported direct flights may have to go through a hub instead, double daily may go daily, wide body may go narrow body. Certain routes may turn into cash cows if competing airlines withdraw. Matching capacity growth to pax growth needs to be done right else money is lost or profits are missed.

When to jump back in requires careful judgement due to the lead time required and the necessity to operate at a loss for as short a period as possible. SIA are flying a skeleton international network due to the need to maintain connectivity, but this needs Singapore government backing as pax numbers reaching three digits is cause for celebration.

[Busbitch]

QF A380 is one for the history book now, you won't see it flying people ever again. They are just letting the shareholders down lightly.