QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

[DirectAnywhere]

With an Aussie populace almost fully vaccinated by Christmas 2021 and similar occurring in the UK and the USA there is no way the public will put up with an additional 12 months of quarantine

I hope I’m wrong but I disagree with this statement entirely. Scomo has realised he has a problem. His language around the “risk matrix” after national cabinet last Friday, and the appointment of the Secretary of Dept of PM and Cabinet to plot a way forward post vaccination, confirms it. The problem is this. COVID has been demonised in Australia to the point - rightly or wrongly - that the Australian public now demand zero cases. Australians have repeatedly shown a remarkable willingness to comply with whatever has been demanded of them to drive cases (cases, not deaths or hospitalisations) to zero. Election results in QLD and (soon to be, probably) WA will confirm it. It’s the post 9/11 “who do you trust to keep you safe?” environment all over again.

If border restrictions are lifted post vaccination, and infected people introduced in to the broader community, case numbers will increase. People will get sick. Some will go to hospital and some will probably die. Governments will need to change the narrative around COVID so that people are willing to accept some illness and sadly, probably, some deaths.

Are state governments willing to do that? How will they do that? Damned if I know. In the US and UK their populations have become so immune to daily deaths in the thousands that they won’t blink if people are dying in the hundreds. It will be considered a triumph. How would Australians handle perhaps tens of deaths a day?

It’s a dastardly conundrum and one the federal and state governments will need to navigate if we are any chance of ever getting state, let alone international, borders open again.

QANTAS’s language around domestic ops is now that flying in the 2nd half of the year to “almost” pre-COVID block hours. That means 737 pilots might be back at work some time before Christmas. I seem to remember a base manager telling me in June 2020 I’d be back at work by September, yet here I am. 2nd half of the year, best case July = 16 months stand down. December = 22 months, assuming they’re right this time, which they haven’t been yet.

[Transition Layer]

I hope I’m wrong but I disagree with this statement entirely. Scomo has realised he has a problem. His language around the “risk matrix” after national cabinet last Friday, and the appointment of the Secretary of Dept of PM and Cabinet to plot a way forward post vaccination, confirms it. The problem is this. COVID has been demonised in Australia to the point - rightly or wrongly - that the Australian public now demand zero cases. Australians have repeatedly shown a remarkable willingness to comply with whatever has been demanded of them to drive cases (cases, not deaths or hospitalisations) to zero. Election results in QLD and (soon to be, probably) WA will confirm it. It’s the post 9/11 “who do you trust to keep you safe?” environment all over again.

If border restrictions are lifted post vaccination, and infected people introduced in to the broader community, case numbers will increase. People will get sick. Some will go to hospital and some will probably die. Governments will need to change the narrative around COVID so that people are willing to accept some illness and sadly, probably, some deaths.

Are state governments willing to do that? How will they do that? Damned if I know. In the US and UK their populations have become so immune to daily deaths in the thousands that they won’t blink if people are dying in the hundreds. It will be considered a triumph. How would Australians handle perhaps tens of deaths a day?

It’s a dastardly conundrum and one the federal and state governments will need to navigate if we are any chance of ever getting state, let alone international, borders open again.

This ^^ :D

The appetite for risk in this country is so low, that I’m surprised people even get in their cars anymore or cross a busy street.

The generation that have had OHS/WHS/PPE rammed down their throats for years is now calling the shots!

[dr dre]

No Chance! Just watched Q&A with three of the most eminent epidemiologists in Australia. Quarantine will be around until the end of next year, mostly because of the poor vaccination rates and procedures in other countries.

I just watched the program, you're being hyperbolic. One speaker said it may last until to the end of next year, although she thought it will last until the end of this year. Importantly quarantine would change depending on risk, it would change taking into consideration of where returnees came from, it may be done at home, it won't be the same as it is now. And most importantly it'll be altered as the vaccine is rolled out, the further it rolls out the more quarantine arrangements will change.

[krismiler]

What the vaccine does is the critical factor here, if it stops someone getting COVID and stops them spreading it then there is no reason why the borders couldn’t open. If it only stops someone from getting sick but still allows transmission, then a very high percentage of the Australian population will need to have had the jab before travel can resume.

As mass vaccination has only recently started, more time is needed to study the results.

[dr dre]

It’s a dastardly conundrum and one the federal and state governments will need to navigate if we are any chance of ever getting state, let alone international, borders open again.


I'm going to just repeat a post I made last month about that point, I think it's still relevant:

We have a vaccine coming that will take the steam out of the health crisis. This vaccine has been developed safely at an unprecedented speed due to the amount of resources put into development. At the start of the pandemic I read best case scenario was end of 2021, so the fact members of the public were receiving Covid vaccinations in December 2020 is a testament to the knowledge and dedication of those medical scientists. It's come so quick that our own government has been able to bring our vaccination plan start date forward to next month, but has probably been caught on the back foot because of it's speed.

In terms of priority amongst all governments now would be containment of current outbreaks in Australia, then reducing risk for inbound international travelers. Once that is done then the vaccine plan comes in to effect, thought first of all needs to be given to which order various groups will receive it, then how it will be distributed, transport, vaccination sites and staff, an knowledge campaign to educate Australians on how to get the vaccine. Along with all the other functions of government at the time. So I can forgive the government if their number one priority right now isn't loudly shouting "Don't worry once we all get vaccinated and there's still some cases!" There's a lot of other higher priorities now, especially since the vaccine rollout is being expedited.

That type of messaging is probably best left towards the end of the vaccine program rather than the start. If people get complacent with messaging that a few cases aren't a problem then the things that are still required at the moment like hygiene, social distancing, app check ins etc may become lax.

We can see some indication of what future messaging will look like when we get to this stage from this Federal Health Department document:

Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/02/australian-health-sector-emergency-response-plan-for-novel-coronavirus-covid-19_2.pdf)

Page 45 under the Standown Stage - Public Messaging heading. Plans that will be implemented include "Advise of the commencement of transition to normal arrangements and how this will be managed", "Coordinate public messaging through media networks", "Notify the public that services will transition to normal arrangements and the reason for this" and "Provide the media with access to information regarding the change of the status of disease spread and the transition of the response". That last point will be crucial to ensure the media don't continue to portray low numbers of cases as a serious health threat as it is now. This messaging is the correct one but as the document states it wouldn't be prudent to start this messaging until well into the vaccine program.

As a side note there's also some information in that document about the future of borders and air travel in a Covid normal world.

It's easy to think that politicians are just playing political games for votes, and in some respects that has been true, but they all have a goal for re-opening as soon as safely possible and there's official policy out there about this if you look hard enough. I know as pilots we would want these politicians to be shouting the end game at the top of their lungs so we have the assurance our industry will be back to normal at a specific time, but that will come within time as this vaccine program is rolled out.

And some further comments on this topic that were made Feb 5 (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/05/covid-case-numbers-will-be-less-of-a-focus-once-vaccines-roll-out-scott-morrison-says):

Morrison hinted that Australians could expect a return to a greater level of normality in the months ahead, as vaccinations would reduce the incidence of severe disease and fatalities, while cautioning that “we’re not there yet”.

“The vaccination program, over months, as it’s rolled out, can change the nature of how Australia then manages the virus,” Morrison said after a national cabinet meeting (so for the naysayers yes this is where the states are getting onboard) where the issue was discussed. “The point was made: it’s less, then, about cases as it is about presentations at ICU or seeking significant treatment, and that we can potentially move to a situation where we manage the virus potentially like other conditions that are in the community.”

What the vaccine does is the critical factor here, if it stops someone getting COVID and stops them spreading it then there is no reason why the borders couldn’t open. If it only stops someone from getting sick but still allows transmission, then a very high percentage of the Australian population will need to have had the jab before travel can resume.

As mass vaccination has only recently started, more time is needed to study the results.Israel - 95% drop in hospitalisation with moderate to critical Covid amongst the vaccinated (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55706855).

[Silverado]

The ALAEA took management to the Federal Court over stand downs and lost.

That is incorrect. The ALAEA did not take Qantas to the federal court over stand downs, I suggest re-reading some news articles on that matter.

[dr dre]

That is incorrect. The ALAEA did not take Qantas to the federal court over stand downs, I suggest re-reading some news articles on that matter.

Um, yeah they did?:

Qantas stand-downs justified by pandemic (https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/qantas-stand-downs-justified-by-pandemic-20201006-p562g1)

Are you confusing this case with the sick leave case?

[blubak]

Um, yeah they did?:

Qantas stand-downs justified by pandemic (https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/qantas-stand-downs-justified-by-pandemic-20201006-p562g1)

Are you confusing this case with the sick leave case?
Absolutely right they did,it was based on useful work as in rectification such as hold items etc.

[airdualbleedfault]

As to the effectiveness of the vaccine, when you consider how tiny the test group was and how many anti vaxxers and scaredy cats there are I am reminded of a quote from Anchorman :
"60% of the time it works every time"

[Silverado]

Um, yeah they did?:

Qantas stand-downs justified by pandemic (https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/qantas-stand-downs-justified-by-pandemic-20201006-p562g1)

Are you confusing this case with the sick leave case?

Did you read that article? The application to the Federal Court was made by Qantas, not the ALAEA.

[Silverado]

Absolutely right they did,it was based on useful work as in rectification such as hold items etc.


Nope, wrong again.

The useful work case, is not what was won by Qantas, it was the stoppage of work case. Although it sounds the same, it isn't.

[ruprecht]

So, the 744 RIN is on....

Any bold predictions on how this’ll play out?

[Tucknroll]

So, the 744 RIN is on....

Any bold predictions on how this’ll play out?

I assume like a normal RIN. What are your specific concerns?

[Fujiroll76]

So, the 744 RIN is on....

Any bold predictions on how this’ll play out?

Its a pretty straight forward RIN...
787 or 330 - very few may loose a stripe but nothing too outrageous.

With the company adamant that training will not occur until all current crew are stood up - it’s much of a muchness which fleet will get you back in a seat quicker.

[ruprecht]

I assume like a normal RIN. What are your specific concerns?

No concerns, just interested in predictions of who is going to displace who. This is a rumour network after all... :p

[Tucknroll]

I think you’ll see a few head to the 380 based on posts and things I’m hearing.

[ruprecht]

I think you’ll see a few head to the 380 based on posts and things I’m hearing.
Yes, I can’t see too many of the 744 SOs heading off to be 787 SOs in Perth. :)

[maggot]

No concerns, just interested in predictions of who is going to displace who. This is a rumour network after all... :p

just remember folks, getting 'displaced' doesnt mean you get booted. It just gets you onto the fleet, should the co wish to domino it they must repeat the process.

most will end up on the 787 at a guess, or the juniors on the 330. I'd be surprised if any stripes were lost unless a stubborn LOP is submitted.

[maggot]

I think you’ll see a few head to the 380 based on posts and things I’m hearing.

there's always some that will try to outsmart the RIN. The co always gets what they want.

[dr dre]

Yes, I can’t see too many of the 744 SOs heading off to be 787 SOs in Perth. :)

On the other hand the 787 (and 330) will be first to have all pilots stood back up so training can commence.

Displce to the 380 all you like, it ain’t coming back for much longer.

[ruprecht]

On the other hand the 787 (and 330) will be first to have all pilots stood back up so training can commence.

Displce to the 380 all you like, it ain’t coming back for much longer.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/400x300/d8228bd9_1f76_46d4_ad5f_2e3ec8b0722b_f29f74b590427f43e216bbe 4729ed0add44a3065.gif

[Telfer86]

There is no international flying now & there won't be any this year

Likely it would take a couple of years for all 787/330 crews to be consistently stood up
, assuming no hiccups , no further shut down of international travel etc etc

So that is three years away from now - all going very well & why an earth would you assume it
will all just go swimmingly ?

It will be at least an order of magnitude more complex and challenging than getting (& keeping) Australia's domestic borders open

Nobody is doing anyone any favours by claiming it will all be over by Christmas

Stood down / unemployed crew have a real opportunity(ie: two to four years) to reskill/ requalify in other areas if they desire

The RIN is years away & I think you would be pretty naïve to think that is how QF will proceed, it ain't the CP who makes that call

[OnceBitten]

just remember folks, getting 'displaced' doesnt mean you get booted. It just gets you onto the fleet, should the co wish to domino it they must repeat the process.

most will end up on the 787 at a guess, or the juniors on the 330. I'd be surprised if any stripes were lost unless a stubborn LOP is submitted.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What Maggot said. I wouldn't over think it, it's probably the most straight forward rin we have actually had.

[maggot]

There is no international flying now & there won't be any this year

Likely it would take a couple of years for all 787/330 crews to be consistently stood up
, assuming no hiccups , no further shut down of international travel etc etc

So that is three years away from now - all going very well & why an earth would you assume it
will all just go swimmingly ?

It will be at least an order of magnitude more complex and challenging than getting (& keeping) Australia's domestic borders open

Nobody is doing anyone any favours by claiming it will all be over by Christmas

Stood down / unemployed crew have a real opportunity(ie: two to four years) to reskill/ requalify in other areas if they desire

The RIN is years away & I think you would be pretty naïve to think that is how QF will proceed, it ain't the CP who makes that call

you have NFI here. Its happening and its a needed papershuffle at this point.

its literally published and needs to be addressed. Getting RINned sucks no matter what.

STFU

[Telfer86]

Well if you believe its a RIN because the execs say that is a matter for you
Did you also believe the shrieking excitable claims by some of the execs back to 80% by July , back to 80% by December , the A380s will come back, we will order 350s
at the end of 2021
My definition of a RIN is that you go off to train & fly a new airplane

[Keg]

Don’t feed the troll!

[Fujiroll76]

Well if you believe its a RIN because the execs say that is a matter for you
Did you also believe the shrieking excitable claims by some of the execs back to 80% by July , back to 80% by December , the A380s will come back, we will order 350s
at the end of 2021
My definition of a RIN is that you go off to train & fly a new airplane

Just wondering if anyone cares about your definition of a RIN?

Anyone?

Hello?

No didn’t think so. Bye bye

[Street garbage]

So the 90 odd named in the NFS FSO shouldn"t update their LOP, they shouldn't read clause 18 of EBA10, shouldn't ring AIPA and gather more information......because the FSO doesn't meet Telfers' definition of a RIN.
As the above posts say Telfer, go away, troll somewhere else, you are just embarrassing yourself, some of us have been through a RIN and can offer advice...instead of shouting "there is no RIN! There is no RIN!".

Fear, uncertainty, doubt. That's all you've got.

[Street garbage]

Just wondering if anyone cares about your definition of a RIN?

Anyone?

Hello?

No didn’t think so. Bye bye

Plus 1..Gold mate.