SOUTHEND - 3 The new beginning [Archive] - Page 3

compton3bravo

4th Aug 2012, 05:02

SWBKCB

4th Aug 2012, 06:31

Unfortunately I think Mr Tinkler has a lot to learn about the aviation world i.e. ´seamless´´ went out of the window years ago. Does he honestly think he is going to make money on a Carlisle-Southend route? There again he might want to use it for tax reasons heaven forbid. I also have an interest in shipping and you want to hear some of the comments made in the shipping media about Stobart. For example quote ´´the company operates the Mersey Multimodal Gateway, a major inland port at Widnes´´ Widnes - a major inland port? - you are joking! Hasn´t seen a ship for ages.

No - Stobart's think they will make money out of the road freight depot they are going to build at CAX - the rest is window dressing to get the planning permission. The area isn't zoned for industrial development so they've had to give the city council a few shiny beads. The airport development is the 'carrot' for the council, while the stick is the threat of moving the entire Stobart's operation out of Cumbria and down to Widnes. Any airline route development is a minor, peripheral consideration. Anyway, based on previous history, this process has a long way to run before the first spade turns over any earth...

And now back to SEN!

daz211

4th Aug 2012, 06:40

Cant wait for the CAX route, I live in Essex and my family live in Cumbria, to take the car costs a bomb and takes about five and a half long hours.

As long as I can book a return flight for around £100 ill be more than happy ;).

LTNman

4th Aug 2012, 08:36

They might get good passenger loads if they use a Cessna 172:E

Aero Mad

4th Aug 2012, 15:03

They might get good passenger loads if they use a Cessna 172http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/evil.gif

Why don't you go back to Luton and stew in your own juices there :D

compton3bravo

4th Aug 2012, 18:03

Quite agree SWBKCB about the road freight depot it is the aviation side that concerns me. Sorry to say IMHO it just will not work - why he put all that money into Aer Arrean God only knows. I suppose the old maxim comes to mind - how do you make your first million in aviation - start with 2 million!
AeroMad don´t be so touchy - LTNman probably only joking - maybe an upgrade to a Piper PA-31 Navajo if demand warrants!:O

easy

4th Aug 2012, 18:24

A Dragon Rapide would be even better...;)

LTNman

4th Aug 2012, 19:40

Yeah Aeromad has no sense of humour which put a big smile on my face at the thought of his tormented post:):p

Aero Mad

4th Aug 2012, 19:54

A sense of humour is indeed a vital asset, but when another poster with a history of slagging off somewhere which is ultimately proving to be jolly successful makes frankly silly comments to be passed off as 'jokes', I'm afraid I simply don't see what there is to laugh at... the fact is that an ATR 42 will probably easily be filled on SEN-CAX. The only possible 'torment' being suffered is that arising from Southend's success :p

LGS6753

4th Aug 2012, 19:59

Aeromad -

ATR42 - say 40 seats.
Twice daily Mon-Fri, once at weekends = 12 flights a week. (Fewer would make the route unattractive to business users)
12 x 40 = 480 passengers each way, each week, every week, even November and February.
That's a very big ask, especially at decent yields.

Expressflight

5th Aug 2012, 07:25

I would tend to support the view that CAX-SEN twice daily might be difficult commercially unless some form of regional support with marketing etc. could be obtained.

Having said that, there are some routes which you would beforehand reckon were surefire winners and they turn out to be failures and vice versa. CAX-SEN certainly has the advantage that road travel is not competitive so it's really all down to latent demand and rail competition factors.

The Stobart ownership of both CAX and SEN, plus its part ownership of Aer Arann, must tip the balance a little towards a positive outcome but nothing is going to happen any time soon that's for sure.

SWBKCB

5th Aug 2012, 08:14

ATR42 - say 40 seats.
Twice daily Mon-Fri, once at weekends = 12 flights a week. (Fewer would make the route unattractive to business users)
12 x 40 = 480 passengers each way, each week, every week, even November and February.
That's a very big ask, especially at decent yields.

A few points:

Aren't RE due to get rid of the ATR-42's if/when the new 72's arrive, or will they retain one for the promised CAX-SEN and CAX-DUB services?;

Does the deal with at EI allow RE to operate flights in their own right, or will these be EIR branded flights (and what do EI think about that)?

I understand there will be no ILS at the re-developed CAX - how many flights will operate in November and February (OK, with current weather we'll add in June and July...)?

LTNman

5th Aug 2012, 16:06

Cumbria is one of the most sparsely populated counties in the United Kingdom, with 73.4 people per km2 (190/sq mi

Has nothing to do with Southend but this route to any London airport with the same Southend landing fees would be a tough thin route.

There is an hourly train service that takes on average 3.23 minutes. Factor in the train travel times from London to Southend and then the check-in time the time saving would be just over an hour.

NorthSouth

5th Aug 2012, 16:17

There is an hourly train service that takes on average 3.23 minutesWow that's fast - an average speed of about 4200 knots. I hadn't realised Branson had put so much money into it. ;)

NS

LTNman

5th Aug 2012, 16:35

Well spotted. Should read 3 hours 23 minutes

Fairdealfrank

6th Aug 2012, 00:54

Quote: "Cumbria is one of the most sparsely populated counties in the United Kingdom, with 73.4 people per km2 (190/sq mi

Has nothing to do with Southend but this route to any London airport with the same Southend landing fees would be a tough thin route.

There is an hourly train service that takes on average 3.23 minutes. Factor in the train travel times from London to Southend and then the check-in time the time saving would be just over an hour."

True, for those going city centre to city centre...

... and the price difference between rail and air?

Barling Magna

6th Aug 2012, 09:44

Cheapest rail fare £41.50. Aer Arann charge £29.99 including taxes to fly from SEN to DUB.

Fairdealfrank

6th Aug 2012, 14:54

Thanks, for the info, Barling Magna, both very reasonable, expect very early booking for the train. Expect at those prices, there's room for both, is it enough for profitability? Guess time will tell.

What a shame that SEN is so far from my house!

Barling Magna

6th Aug 2012, 15:49

LCY hits out at ruling allowing Southend to call itself a London gateway (http://www.airport-world.com/news-articles/item/1787-london-city-airport-hits-out-at-london-southend-ruling#startOfPageId1787)

He doth protest too much, methinks.......

SWBKCB

6th Aug 2012, 16:43

Yes - you'd almost think he was after cheap publicity, if his obvious concern for the poor misled consumer wasn't so clear.

Expressflight

6th Aug 2012, 17:30

Oh dear, poor Matthew Hall. I do hope someone has picked up all those toys and they're safely back inside the pram. Perhaps the validity of his opinion can be judged against the fact that he also claims that Luton and Stansted cannot be considered London airports: indeed he goes as far as to suggest that only City can truly claim that prefix.

One certain thing is that the time from arriving on chocks SEN to reaching Central London by train is likely to be at least as quick as an arrival at STN, LTN, or LHR can achieve. That seems a fairly good basis upon which to describe it as London Southend and I doubt that IATA made their decision lightly.

adfly

6th Aug 2012, 18:27

A regional airport an hour away from central London via the train? Just waiting for 'London Southampton Airport' now! :)

Although on a more serious note Southend needs its London tag to attract passengers as few people outside the region know about 'Southend' which is really a small seaside town in Essex whereas in comparison Southampton is large city known for being one of the main Ports to/from the UK and thus is better known, hence why a London tag would not have as much of an impact and would still look silly!

davidjohnson6

6th Aug 2012, 18:59

Oxford is a substantial city famed throughout the world for its university. Didn't stop the airport adding a 'London' prefix to the name though ! And yes, it does look silly....

London Oxford (Kidlington) Airport EGTK/OXF - Air Travel For the Thames Valley Region, Oxfordshire & The Cotswolds (http://www.oxfordairport.co.uk/)

Barling Magna

6th Aug 2012, 19:13

.... a "small seaside resort".....? Have you been to Southend? I've lived in both Southampton and Southend and I can tell you that Southampton isn't much bigger in terms of metropolitan area population - Southampton about 300,000, Southend about 275,000. Certainly Southampton is known around the world and Southend isn't, but with London in front of it people will know where it is.

adfly

6th Aug 2012, 19:24

I was thinking more how it is perceived by people than its actual size, and I agree the London tag is a good step forward for the airport in establishing itself and I certainly don't doubt there will be ~2 million annual pax by 2020 assuming our economy doesn't do a Greece.

mikkie4

6th Aug 2012, 21:40

LONDON CITY AIRPORT NEED TO MIND WHAT THEY ARE SAYING ABOUT SEN,WERE DO LCY SEND THEIR DIVERTS wHEN THEIR RUNWAY IS CLOSED?ATC MIGHTSEND THEM TO SOUTHAMPTON OR ANOTHER AIRPORT THAT DOES NOT HAVE THE WORD LONDON IN FRONT OF IT

davidjohnson6

6th Aug 2012, 21:53

mikkie - I have no wish to comment on the message you are trying to spread, but would it be at all possible to use a mix of upper and lower case when you're typing, instead of all capitals ? For those of us with dodgy eyes, it makes it so much easier to read what you're saying...

LN-KGL

6th Aug 2012, 21:59

Even Manston Kent's International Airport was once known at London Manston Airport. Manston is 33 miles further afield from London city centre than Southend.

Source: London Manston Airport - 27 March 2008 - Roger's blog - Roger W Haworth (http://rhaworth.me/blog/2008-03-27-4)

Tagron

6th Aug 2012, 22:48

I happen to agree that the spread of London prefixed airport names is “faintly ridiculous”. But then LCY’s CCO is making himself “faintly ridiculous” by whingeing about it in public.

I have a much better idea. Look back to the 1950s before all this nonsense started. Then there was only one London Airport, the place we now know as Heathrow. All the other airports serving the London area would never have dreamed of calling themselves London-Croydon, -Gatwick, -Blackbushe, -Northolt,-Bovingdon etc. It was the reopening of Gatwick which was designated by the government as London’s second airport that started the rot, so we had to have London Heathrow and London Gatwick.

But the hard fact is that LHR was then and is now London’s pre-eminent airport, the one that most deserves to be use the title of London. For this reason my proposal is that Heathrow should revert to its old name of London Airport, and all the other pretenders should drop “London” and revert to their local geographical title, hence plain Gatwick, Stansted,Luton, Southend. And LCY ? It should revert to “Docklands” which was its original title before its owners renamed it.:E:D

Fairdealfrank

6th Aug 2012, 23:44

Why pick on SEN only? Criticise all or none of the "non-London London" airports.

It's a long and growing list: SEN, STN, MSE, LGW, LHR, OXF and LTN, with CBG, SOU, BOH and NWI and maybe one day NHT likely to jump on the bandwagon.

Wouldn't the supporters of the never-to-be-built Fantasy Island want the prefix "London" as well? It's much further out than SEN.

Expressflight

7th Aug 2012, 07:21

I think it needs emphasising here that the SEN case isn't simply one whereby an airport is calling itself London, as certainly is the case with CBG and OXF etc.. The fact is that IATA have accepted that SEN is justifiably a London airport, whereas they are extremely unlikely to do so for the others mentioned.

Perhaps the LCY management are not aware that SEN is preferred alternate for BA Cityflyer, Cityjet and a few others. I would suggest that those carriers do not share the view of SEN being " ......a field on the East coast.", but the best choice in terms of minimising passenger inconvenience and schedule disruption.

Tagron

One of the main aims of IATA in designating which airports serve a particular city is that it enables travel agents worldwide to offer their clients a choice of flights to a number of suitable airports, which they could not do otherwise without local knowledge of the area. I agree with your perhaps tongue-in-cheek idea in principle but it would actually only produce more confusion for the traveller.

Expressflight

7th Aug 2012, 07:57

Italian holiday specialists Citalia have added SEN departures to their 2013 Italian Cities holiday programme. Taking seats on the easyJet SEN-VCE route, the programme begins 8 February 2013 and runs through to the end of October. SEN becomes the 10th UK airport from which the company offers holday departures to Venice.

Tagron

7th Aug 2012, 07:59

Extra smily added for the avoidance of doubt, Expressflight:D

Phileas Fogg

7th Aug 2012, 14:09

When I was selling stuff on eBay a year or so back one of my buyers, with a non British sounding family name, notified me that her address was "Luton, London".

When I questioned if she lived in Luton, Bedfordshire or in London I became informed that it was the local airport identity that had confused her!

tws123

7th Aug 2012, 16:05

On the Citalia Holidays website they don't call Southend 'London Southend' but just 'Southend'. I thought they said that from now on all holiday companies would use 'London Southend' on their flights and holiday searches?:confused:

LTNman

7th Aug 2012, 16:27

Don't think that not listing Southend under London will cost it any bookings as UK holiday companies will be selling holidays to the British who will know that Southend is by the sea.

It will be interesting to see if there is a price premium for flights from Southend. Companies like Thomson can load several hundreds of pounds per family for flights that don’t depart from Gatwick.
Might well explain why Gatwick is number one for IT when one of my neighbours who lives no more than a mile from Luton picked a family holiday from Gatwick due to the amount of money he saved despite simular flight times.

vulcanised

7th Aug 2012, 19:39

I can't help wondering just how much potential Flybe missed out on when they virtually had SEN to themselves for commercial flights.

Aero Mad

7th Aug 2012, 21:22

That was a big whoopsie. Mind you, without the train station it was hardly a London airport - although that only required a certain amount of investment? They could have made quite a packet by upping sticks at Gatwick and selling their slots, and then had a monopoly at SEN. Oh for the missed opportunities...

LTNman

7th Aug 2012, 22:07

Mind you, without the train station it was hardly a London airport:eek::eek::eek:

So in your eyes Southend isn't a London Airport for those early morning departures and late arrivals when there is no train service and isn't for any passengers using a car:confused:

If I said that you would have attacked me yet you admit it.

EI-BUD

7th Aug 2012, 22:29

They could have made quite a packet by upping sticks at Gatwick and selling
their slots, and then had a monopoly at SEN. Oh for the missed
opportunities...

In principle this sounds fine but consider each Flybe LGW route, I dont see many of them stacking up from SEN.
E.g. BHD - never achieve 20k pax per month
JER ?? Wasnt and isnt breaking delph so if you think it is a direct transfer to SEN you would be mistaken, the competition would fill some of the void.

Elsewhere, Flybe increasingly looking to interlining for pax, not available ex SEN
Flybe not well know around Europe in the way EZY is. EZY is best placed of all airlines to make a sucess of SEN.
Flybe not cheap, so from a route development point of view, dont see them as being particularly ideal.

However, nothing to still stop them coming into SEN and doing short routes domestically or near Europe with 175 or 400s. Easyjet may have 3 aircraft but they have in essence at this point a handful of routes, more than ample room for BE to fit in. Besides I cant imagine if BE had set up a base at SEN that they would have went after half of the routes that EZY have. Maybe AMS but not Belfast or any of the longer holiday routes.

EI-BUD

Expressflight

8th Aug 2012, 07:28

LTNman

A quick check on the Citalia website shows that using LGW as the baseline, SEN departures are about 5% more expensive and LCY about 20% more expensive. I would think that those figures make SEN quite an attractive proposition taking everything else into account.

I do agree with you that the current lack of early morning train arrivals at SEN from London is a problem and I know every effort is being made to resolve the situation. As far as getting to/from SEN by road is concerned I don't see there is any problem with SEN being designated a London airport, especially as both the A127 and A13 can be used in the event of delays on one or the other.

Barling Magna

8th Aug 2012, 08:48

I agree that EZY is a much better catch for SEN that FlyBE, but FlyBE could operate services to France and Germany from SEN which would be quite attractive to the local catchment as well as to Londoners - should also attract the French and Germans to a London terminal. Domestically Glasgow and Edinburgh are still available from SEN - the large RBS presence at Southend should make those routes attractive. I guess FlyBE have other things on their mind, as well as a small bit of unwillingness to admit an earlier mistake in not seeing the potential of SEN?

shamrock7seal

8th Aug 2012, 08:50

I agree...

Flybe would be perfect for double daily services to EDI, GLA, ABZ and near-Europe centres in Germany, France, Switzerland, Poland, Scandinavia, Austria etc etc.

I could see it surpassing SOU in importance if they were to really develop a base.

I also agree they probably didn't see the viability or success looming and were probably basing their asusmptions on the passenger profiles of their SEN-JER route which of course would give a squewed outlook.

EI-BUD

8th Aug 2012, 09:34

Domestically Glasgow and Edinburgh are still available from SEN - the large RBS presence at Southend should make those routes attractive

This is a very valid point. And interestingly enough EZY seem to be very successful on STN to BFS, EDI & GLA. Eventhough they did introduce a BFS I cant see them doing SEN to GLA and EDI. This could dent the STN numbers, I think when BFS to SEN was launched it was part of a wider London Strategy for Belfast London route in the face of bmibaby on Belfast City to Stansted and the European routes (which obviously have now gone). EZY were keeping the pressure on the competition on the crowded Belfast London route and for this reason I think BFS was chosen for a domestic SEN route rather then GLA and EDI. I feel that BE aircraft size much more suitable than say Airbus.
Would be nice to see the airport getting another operator. Would Wizz consider splitting its London operations between Luton and Southend?

Wizz being so well known by Poles, I feel that moving some flights would have minimal effect and lower cost base?? 319 perfectly suitable.

EI-BUD

ericlday

8th Aug 2012, 10:18

Wizz being so well known by Poles, I feel that moving some flights would have minimal effect and lower cost base?? 319 perfectly suitable.
Problem is that Wizzair fleet is A320.

LGS6753

8th Aug 2012, 10:57

FlyBe are taking another 3 175s this year according to Jethro's. These seem to be replacing some of the Dash 8s, so I'm not sure that FlyBe have the capacity to start new, unproven routes at present.
They have recently announced lower profits, so that's another reason why they aren't likely to want to throw resources in to money-burning start-up routes from an unproved base.

Sorry!

Tagron

8th Aug 2012, 11:57

Full payload A320 operations from SEN to Polish destinations should be entirely feasible.

Although that statement is based on study of material from the Airbus website, and I fully acknowledge the potential pitfalls of this method, some corroboration is available elsewhere from a recent report that an A320 operator had studied A320 performance from SEN and concluded that AGP and FAO were viable destinations.. As always, welcome comment anyone with more authentic information.

Straight line distances from SEN are: FAO 948nm, AGP 921nm, WAW 749nm, Lublin LUZ (furthest likely Polish destination) 820nm.

Of course Polish routes would be a good fit for SEN insofar as EZY is not a major player in the Polish market. Would Wizzair really want to move part of their operation and how keen would SEN be to have them ? They seem to have a reputation that rivals Ryanair's, whether deserved or not I do not know. And this is all just a speculation with no basis in reality I think ?

There is a good case for saying that the development of domestic routes from SEN would be better served by smaller aircraft operating at greater frequency than is likely with an A319. If the business case is strong then sooner or later someone will pick it up. For whatever reason, Flybe turned their backs on SEN. I don’t think we should be too concerned at their absence.

LTNman

8th Aug 2012, 19:02

Would be nice to see the airport getting another operator. Would Wizz consider splitting its London operations between Luton and Southend?

Can't see it. They tried Stansted but that didn't last long.

A quick check on the Citalia website shows that using LGW as the baseline, SEN departures are about 5% more expensive and LCY about 20% more expensive. I would think that those figures make SEN quite an attractive proposition taking everything else into account.

It will be the Thomson one that will be interesting. Their pricing policy means that most London passengers looking for the lowest price will always pick Gatwick even when another airport is easier to get to.

vulcanised

10th Aug 2012, 11:36

Sounded as if the Beeb have picked up on the 'London Southend' debate on R4 You & Yours today.

Unfortunately I missed it, so will have to listen on iPlayer later.

Barling Magna

10th Aug 2012, 11:39

I listened. It was a good item, with Simon Calder and Southend Councillor Derek Jarvis. Overall it made London City look a bit silly, and was excellent publicity for SEN. Well done, Beeb.

Buster the Bear

10th Aug 2012, 18:00

If you look at the Flybe press release today, I think you will find they have more pressing issues including dire load factors and awful financial results.

Barling Magna

10th Aug 2012, 18:30

Ah, well, if they'd only opened schedules from SEN they'd be making some money.....:)

Nakata77

14th Aug 2012, 00:30

Is the SEN-JER route daily or 4 weekly? Aug is showing daily but Sep is showing 4 weekly...

Expressflight

14th Aug 2012, 07:52

Nakata77

I think you've answered your own question regarding JER.

As far as any Flybe interest in SEN is concerned I would say it is currently non-existent. The last time I met them I was surprised at their negativity so I wouldn't expect that to have changed markedly in the interim.

Barling Magna

14th Aug 2012, 08:23

Maybe they need to reconsider. Their current account looks poor, but they could follow that old dictum to invest during times of recession rather than the current retrenching. I'm sure schedules from SEN would offer them a good income.

Nakata77

14th Aug 2012, 09:07

Expressflight - so the daily in Aug was temporary to meet demand or was it reduced to 4 weekly after poor demand?

Barling Manga, I agree with you. Considering BE are in the 'low cost' segment, they arn't taking full advantage of this.

BE SEN routes that could offer viable solutions to increased fleet size abound including GLA, EDI, ABZ, INV, NCL, MAN, IOM, GCI, JER, CDG, FRA, HAN, DUS. They surely would do better from SEN than messing around with LGW, slots and high landing fees.

Barling Magna

14th Aug 2012, 09:15

That's right Nakata77. Places in France, Germany, Belgium would be excellent destinations for their Q400s. I'm not sure whether their E175s and E195s can operate from SEN's runways (they are both groundhuggers compared to the E170 and E190), but if they can then Eastern European destinations would also prove attractive - there are certainly plenty of Poles in Southend (and delightful they are too).

shamrock7seal

14th Aug 2012, 09:29

I believe the negativity comes from the fact that Southend were not prepared to offer exclusive offers to Flybe and when they started talking to easyJet this sent Flybe over the edge. I think Flybe have a right to be a little peeved seeing as they stuck with Southend albeit only weekend JER services in the doldrums. I would also be apprehensive if I was Jim French because if Southend is as successful as everyone thinks it is, easyJet will not think twice about doing those very routes mentioned with A319's and lower fares.

Barling Magna

14th Aug 2012, 09:41

SEN does seem to be successful - today's CAA stats will be interesting - but it's asking a lot for 156 seat A319s to be filled on French regional flights. The Q400 looks more SEN sized to me, for secondary point to points.

Steviec9

14th Aug 2012, 09:56

SEN does seem to be successful

No reason for it not to be. Allowing for a settling down period, nit picking about whether its London or not (apparently being in West Sussex or Bedfordshire is no bar to being an official 'London' airport) and having good links to the city, it seems to be proving its value. I know a few people (non aviation buffs) who have used it already and, despite some comments about 'ooh, innit small though? is it a proper airport?' :rolleyes:, all of these people now favour it and are recommending it. I'm sure we'll see some tweaking of routes, some new operators arriving and some probably disappearing - all of this is part of the genesis of a new or re-generated airport. Look at LCY for the first few years - a myriad of routes and operators came and went until it settled down. There is a place for all six of the London airports, between them they serve a vast and diverse population that needs to travel quickly all over the UK, Ireland, Europe and the world.

The only negative comments I'm picking up at the moment are about lack of early morning/late night connections from London and the fact that the departure lounge can get crowded during the peak movement times. Both of these can be easily addressed and the latter's extension is already underway.

Expressflight

14th Aug 2012, 10:00

Nakata77

JER was daily from 27th June onwards, not just in August, having started at 4 x weekly in May. Presumably they feel traffic will tail off somewhat in September, when frequency reduces to 5 x weekly until the end of October (not 4 x weekly as you suggest). It reduces to 4 x weekly in November.

I would say the demand may not quite support a daily rotation even at peak season so next year's timetable will be interesting.

adfly

14th Aug 2012, 10:08

They may not be quite as effective as the E170/E190 off short runways but the E195 especially is far from a ground hugger - it has very little trouble reaching FAO from SOU with a shorter runway than SEN (1732m vs 1799m) in the Summer with a full load (Just over 1000nmi). The E175 is not quite as good mainly because of its smaller wing and de-rated engines on the Flybe ones but should be good for around 800nmi (about the same as the Q400) ex. SOU so again about the same from SEN. :)

Jes

14th Aug 2012, 10:43

May I just say that this thread is probably the best in this section. Expressflight is always authoritative and erudite, and today Steviec9 makes some very good points.
Always a pleasure to read.

stluke

14th Aug 2012, 12:51

Does anyone have the latest CAA figures please?

maliyahsdad2

14th Aug 2012, 12:56

stluke, they are due today but are not on the website yet.

keep an eye here...
UK Airport Provisional Statistics | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&pageid=11&sglid=11)

LTNman

14th Aug 2012, 13:25

Prediction.

This year Southend will be the UK’s fastest growing airport by a long way for passenger numbers as a percentage gain.

Next year the growth in percentage terms will be just a fraction of this year but will still be the UK’s fastest growing airport and in year 3 it will level off with next to no growth.

davidjohnson6

14th Aug 2012, 14:18

Expressflight

14th Aug 2012, 14:50

July saw SEN achieve 84,792 pax, up from 77,580 in June.

LTNman

14th Aug 2012, 16:07

LTNman - when an airport has 42,000 passengers (i.e. barely registers as a commercial passenger airport), and then receives a brand new terminal just before the summer season begins in March, along with a railway station and a load of routes are opened by a large airline, it is to be expected that both this year and next, the %'age passenger number increase is bound to be extremely high. Thus your prediction for 2012 and 2013 is not particularly eye-opening.

The CAA stats for the 12 months ending June 2012 published a month ago indicate a growth in passenger numbers of approx 1,000 %.
Add in the extra passenger numbers for the Nov12-Mar13 season, and the %'age increase for 2013 will also be extremely high, simply because Jan12-Mar12 had very few passengers and Easyjet only began operations in April 2012

That's what I said but in one sentance.

I am slightly surprised that in 2014 you expect next to no growth. What does "next to no growth" mean ? Below 1% ? Below 5% ? Below 10% ? Or something else ?

I would guess around zero % Some easyjet routes might be dropped to be replaced by new ones. The soon to be expanded terminal will still be maxed out in the early morning thus preventing additional night stoppers from what ever additional aircraft are based next year.

There will be no real demand from other airlines that will be looking at a more competitive Stansted under new owners.

IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year.

Chidken Sangwich

14th Aug 2012, 16:23

A quick check on the Citalia website shows that using LGW as the baseline, SEN departures are about 5% more expensive and LCY about 20% more expensive. I would think that those figures make SEN quite an attractive proposition taking everything else into account.

Certainly not. Citalia is a PREMIUM Thomson product which sadly EZY is not. Citalia via BA from LGW will win every time with the majority of their clients.

Expressflight

14th Aug 2012, 16:36

LTNman

I know you always deny being anti-SEN, but your post looks more like wishful thinking to that end rather than any thought out projections.

Firstly, you could be right and easyJet might simply replace some existing routes with others over the next couple of years. On the other hand they may find that nearly all the existing routes perform satisfactorily after a period and increase the number of routes and based aircraft. Such a scenario seems equally possible surely.

Secondly, it's rather sweeping to say that "there will be no real demand from other airlines...." just because STN may be under new ownership by then. Would you say that about LTN then in those circumstances?

Lastly, on what basis do you state that "IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year." ? SEN's natural catchment area is well populated by those most likely to take IT flights, so there is no reason to assume that it might not be serving half a dozen destination on that basis after a couple of years, rather than the one or two anticipted so far for 2013.

The truth surely is that no one knows how successful SEN with prove to be in the medium to long term; it probably very largely depending on if (I don't feel able to say 'when' any more in that context) the UK economy recovers to a meaningful extent by 2015. The airport's potential is still evolving and it's not expected that the extended terminal will be "maxed out" as you put it until 2 mppa is achieved and it will require considerable growth beyond 2013 before that landmark is reached.

LTNman

14th Aug 2012, 17:10

Lastly, on what basis do you state that "IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year." ? SEN's natural catchment area is well populated by those most likely to take IT flights

Luton has the second biggest catchment area in the UK after Heathrow. Once upon a time Luton charter flights accounted for 100% of all its passengers but now it is down to just 5%. Gatwick is king while the rest of London’s airports pick up the crumbs. This has nothing to do with demand and catchment areas but is imposed by the likes of Thomsons.

Secondly, it's rather sweeping to say that "there will be no real demand from other airlines...." just because STN may be under new ownership by then. Would you say that about LTN then in those circumstances?

Just my opinion, I might well be wrong. Keep this post for a couple of years and then you can say you told me so.

By 2014 Luton will be looking for another 8 million passengers. Stansted under new owners will be looking to fill up its half empty terminal and Gatwick will be eyeing all airports north of the Thames as a souse of more passengers. Life might get tough for Southend but then as I said who knows.

Barling Magna

14th Aug 2012, 17:34

To be fair to LTNMan, this is what he said on 7th February 2011:

"From little acorns grow might oaks come to mind. Ok Southend is hemmed in a bit and the terminal will be small but an airline like easyjet could move 3 or 4 aircraft out of say Luton to set up a base at Southend which would have a big impact on Luton’s passenger figures.

Coventry has been mentioned why Southend could struggle but then look at how Belfast Harbour has taken business away from Belfast’s main airport. OK this might be a bad comparison as Harbour is a city airport but with its own railway station Southend could well provide a few surprises."

Which seems pretty percipient to me. Just to amuse everyone, here is what is being stated on another forum today:

"....rumours among The Aviation Industry,are circulating, by stating that Easy Jet, are to base 6 Airbus 319s - at London Southend Airport for Summer 2013, and will be operating New Services, and Destinations !!!! "

Pure speculation, I suspect....

rowly6339

14th Aug 2012, 21:16

For anyone who is interested,

ADS Advance - Southend welcomes 500th new employee as it is named fastest growing airport in Europe (http://www.adsadvance.co.uk/southend-welcomes-500th-new-employee-as-it-is-named-fastest-growing-airport-in-europe.html)

rowly6339

14th Aug 2012, 21:19

Not quite sure where he gets the idea that Stobart's are a good firm to work for from? :confused:

Barling Magna

14th Aug 2012, 21:22

They'd be down to 499 again if he said anything else on his first day....:)

rowly6339

14th Aug 2012, 21:39

Well if CAX-SEN does start then at least there is one person that well benefit from it :)

LTNman

14th Aug 2012, 22:18

..rumours among The Aviation Industry,are circulating, by stating that Easy Jet, are to base 6 Airbus 319s - at London Southend Airport for Summer 2013, and will be operating New Services, and Destinations !!!! "

If true then my 2014 prediction could be true as the airport could be maxed out by then. Remember that an airport does not need year on year growth to be classed as successful.

So what is Southend’s full potential?

LTNman

14th Aug 2012, 22:25

ADS Advance - Southend welcomes 500th new employee as it is named fastest growing airport in Europe

The sky really is the limit for London Southend Airport as it welcomes the 500th new member of staff on site since summer 2011, at the same time as it is highlighted as the fastest developing airport in Europe, possibly even the world

Who wrote this rubbish. At least the people here understand that if you start off with next to no passengers then it does not take many new passengers to bump up the figures.

pug

14th Aug 2012, 22:31

LTNman clearly doesnt work in PR or marketing then :ok:

Barling Magna

14th Aug 2012, 22:40

Southend's full potential has always been stated as 2 million ppa, similar to Southampton. However, somebody from Stobart once mentioned 5 million ppa - could have been a slip. With one short, narrow runway I can't see SEN expanding much beyond 2 million ppa; but then there's always LCY with 3 million plus per year.....

mikkie4

14th Aug 2012, 22:45

since when has 84,792 passengers for the month of july not been very many?.there are a lot of well established airports that would like those passenger numbers.congratulations to all at SEN for their hard work,long may it continue

davidjohnson6

14th Aug 2012, 23:55

Southend had 84,792 passengers in July 2012
Bournemouth had more passengers
Doncaster had more passengers
Guernsey had more passengers

Yes, it is credit-worthy to see the new routes at SEN perform so well, but neither Bournemouth nor Doncaster would be regarded as having particularly high passenger numbers in the general scheme of things.

mikkie4

15th Aug 2012, 00:03

with only 3 a319s and 4 atrs totaling 70 flights a week,thats still dam good going

shamrock7seal

15th Aug 2012, 01:52

Excellent news on the passenger loads. 84,792 is incredibly exciting for Southend. They haven't seen these kinds of numbers in their history, ever! There were some entire years that went by in the 90's with less than the July total.

Southend, being marketed as a London gateway and an alternative for those who despise Stansted, not to mention the immediate catchment area, should easily be able to support 200-250,000 passengers a month once the extension is available in my opinion.

The best days are still ahead for Southend.

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 07:05

since when has 84,792 passengers for the month of july not been very many?

I was talking about last year not this year.:=:confused:

Southend, being marketed as a London gateway and an alternative for those who despise Stansted

Don't think that many people despise Stansted as an actual airport. There might be an issue about its slow rail link as it seems to give the impression that it is further away from London than it really is.

Expressflight

15th Aug 2012, 07:29

LTNman & davidjohnson6

I start to wonder what sort of figures you would want to see before you admitted that the rebuilt SEN has so far been an outstanding success.

What is the point in selectively comparing the pax figures for three well established UK airports when SEN has been operational for only 5 months?

I think it is generally accepted that SEN is unlikely to exceed 2 mppa under current plans for terminal capacity and its infrastructure. That's all it needs to do in order to become a commercial success for its current owners while maintaining its growing reputation as an easy to use, rapid transit airport.

I don't see how LTNman squares his view that STN will offer lower costs to fill their half empty terminal with his statement that LTN will be looking for an addition 8 million pax by 2014. Surely that would be a tough ask for LTN, while I don't see why it should dent SEN's modest ambition for 2 mppa by then.

Aviation has suffered more than its fair share of bad news in recent years, dealing with the impacts of recession and ever increasing APD and fuel costs etc. and many airports are seeing reductions in passenger numbers and profitability. Just for once can't we all welcome the good news that SEN represents to the industry?

Nakata77

15th Aug 2012, 07:51

Well said.

I love the UK aviation industry and have a very strong interest in all the UK regional airports but like a lot of people I have my favourites and I would almost compare this forum to forums on who supports what football club - its difficult to separate the emotion if a particular airport means something to you.

davidjohnson6

15th Aug 2012, 09:06

When Easyjet began selling seats out of Southend they were at very low fares. Filling aircraft on beach routes in July from an airport that covers the London area when some of the aircraft capacity has simply been moved from Stansted should not be too hard particularly with the marketing power of Easyjet

I have no dislike for SEN at all and genuinely want it to succeed given the monopolistic behaviour of BAA at Stansted.

Yes 84,000 passengers per month is credit worthy with current aircraft but it sets the airport size at what I believe is still quite a modest level and means the airport is dependent on a small number of routes.
Yes, it's a lot more passengers than in the 1990s and 2000s, but with all the expenditure on new terminal, runway extension and train station, one should also expect a lot more passengers when setting any kind of performance target.
Hit 1 million bums on seats in a year (yes I know it'll require more based aircraft) and I'll regard SEN as a serious airport and genuinely be impressed.

Expressflight

15th Aug 2012, 10:17

davidjohnson6

Do you really believe that "84,000 passengers per month ....... is still quite a modest level" just five month into SEN's new life? I would suggest that few on here would have thought that even remotely likely just 18 months ago.

Stobarts have been sensible enough to realise that it would be unwise to chase too many other operators at this stage, with a limited sized terminal and only five close-in stands. You said yourself just a year ago:

"Perhaps a few months of letting some A319 and any other similar or smaller sized aircraft bed in and operate in a stable manner would be worthwhile first?"

That's exactly the policy they have followed, but once a date for the extended terminal with its additional five stands to come into use is firmed up they will obviously be working hard to add additional airlines and routes.

davidjohnson6

15th Aug 2012, 11:12

84,000 is for a month in peak summer. Yes it is a lot of people, but has to be seen against likely numbers in low season as well.

My point is that SEN has seen very large capital expenditure over the last few years. Any major consumer-oriented project would likely need the customers to come flooding in as soon as the product goes on sale - a comparable might be a new out of town shopping centre that opened in September and was being judged on its performance purely in the run up to Xmas.

I don't deny that 84,000 is plenty of passengers for a new-ish airport, but given the population on its doorstep, the new capacity of the airport, the new terminal, the train station, the marketing power of Easyjet, the fact that based aircraft have been moved to SEN from a major (but monopolistic) London airport, and a shockingly rainy spring/summer for a peak summer month I see this as performing well, but still not yet fully proven.

We're currently looking at SEN numbers under perfect conditions - we need to see SEN perform under some less than perfect conditions to judge its underlying strength - e.g. November. How many people flying out of SEN would have flown out of the other Essex airport anyway but for the fact that aircraft have moved to a different base ?

I think people are getting a little too excited at this stage in SEN's development. Hit (or be on target for) 1m pax per year, and I'll genuinely regard SEN as an unqualified success.

tophat27dt

15th Aug 2012, 11:19

Stobarts are very good for keeping their mouths shut when actively seeking new business. How many of us knew six months before it was announced that EasyJet were starts operations from SEN? Rumours will always happen, some with dead ends, but I believe the rumour that the same airline WILL base three or more A319s there next year provided all the facilities are open for the comfort of their passengers. Thomsons/First Choice and Stobarts have not officially confirmed their twice-weekly flights to Palma yet because contracts need to be signed, but it got leaked out via the broker dealing with the Germania aircraft used by Fords. He is actively looking for more useage and basing it at SEN. Other scheduled operators? maybe but you certainly wont hear about them until every dot is in place. :D

EI-BUD

15th Aug 2012, 12:24

What is the point in selectively comparing the pax figures for three well established UK airports when SEN has been operational for only 5 months?

I completely agree, the airport is just started out with a new terminal, gotten Easyjet to start a base and the 3 aircraft are fully utilised and the loads are very good. The business case was and is strong for the airport and solely looking the local catchment it is a good story. The airport and terminal in the current state has major opportunities to expand. When the 3 easyJet 319s go out in the morning there a few hours of gaps with an empty terminal. So I would say at a guess the airport could handle x4 times the passengers without extension etc.

The plan was to use the olympics as a major opportunity to get SEN on the map. the next challenge is to convince the flying public bound for London that the airport is just a credable and convenient at other London Airports.

Continued success to SEN and Easyjet (and EIR)

EI-BUD

Nakata77

15th Aug 2012, 13:10

Funny how yesterday I was saying Flybe should forget LGW and consider SEN.

They have just announced closure of their LGW base.

Daily Nantes route will transfer to SOU, but i'm sure this is opportunity to revisit SEN development

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 13:57

I think it is generally accepted that SEN is unlikely to exceed 2 mppa under current plans for terminal capacity and its infrastructure. That's all it needs to do in order to become a commercial success for its current owners while maintaining its growing reputation as an easy to use, rapid transit airport.

So you agree with my predictions up until 2014 when I predict the airport could be maxed out if all goes well:ok:

When Luton was hovering around the 2 million mark it was seen as an unsuccessful failing airport. I would say that 2 million passengers at Southend would be viewed as a great success. :ok:

I don't see how LTNman squares his view that STN will offer lower costs to fill their half empty terminal with his statement that LTN will be looking for an addition 8 million pax by 2014. Surely that would be a tough ask for LTN, while I don't see why it should dent SEN's modest ambition for 2 mppa by then.

If easyjet keeps faith at Southend and why shouldn't it then Southend will do well but as we all know airlines close bases and shift capacity at a drop of a hat. Look what happened with easyjet at East Midlands. Look how easyjet has reduced capacity at Stansted. There are only so many passengers around and all the airports want them.

Easyjet

East Midlands Airport
Earlier today we announced our intention to stop all flying from East Midlands Airport from 6 January 2010.

This decision is a result of Commercial considerations and plans to redeploy our aircraft across our network. We will continue to operate as normal up until 5 January 2010.

.

When the 3 easyJet 319s go out in the morning there a few hours of gaps with an empty terminal. So I would say at a guess the airport could handle x4 times the passengers without extension etc.

Wouldn't say 4 times but Southend needs to attract jets that are not Southend based to fill in the gaps. Think they might find it hard to get airlines out of other London airports though but that is the way to go.

pug

15th Aug 2012, 14:14

LTNman, correct me if I'm wrong, however I was under the impression that easyjet pulled out of EMA due to only having 2xaircraft stationed there (they tend to base at least three aircraft), and increased competition from FR, WW and Jet2.

Easyjet currently have the run of SEN, it has been rumoured that they got a very good deal to operate from there, and that the contract is a long term one being 10 years..

Stobart and easyjet's ideas of success may be different from your own.

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 14:23

Stobart and easyjet's ideas of success may be different from your own.

Success = profit for airline and airport

pug

15th Aug 2012, 14:27

Success = profit for airline and airport

Of course, so you will also know that profit/loss is not necessarily defined by the number of passengers using the airport. I expect you do not have access to that information either.

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 14:35

Of course, so you will also know that profit/loss is not necessarily defined by the number of passengers using the airport.

Could not agree more with your wise words.

1,000,000 passengers and a nice profit = success.
2,000,000 passengers and a fat loss = failure

Problem is that there are a few plane spotters here that would disagree as numbers mean everything and nothing else counts.

pug

15th Aug 2012, 14:42

Problem is that there are a few here that would disagree as numbers mean everything and nothing else counts.

I would say that 2 million passengers at Southend would be viewed as a great success. http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

I need say no more.

My opinion is that the people who need to know what they are doing, will know what they are doing. Stobarts also dont appear to have gotten ahead of themselves, perhaps unlike some other airport operators in recent years who have publicly over estimated their future passenger throughputs.

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 15:11

I would assume that 2,000,000 passengers at a maxed out Southend would return a nice profit. If it didn't then there will be trouble ahead.

Expressflight

15th Aug 2012, 16:06

LTNman

I cannot help but me amused by your criticism of those here to whom "numbers mean everything and nothing else counts". Yet all of your recent posts have been full of references to the 'numbers' and what represents good numbers and what would represent failure. I happen to agree with you that numbers don't mean anything on their own, but they are all that we generally have to go on, as pug has pointed out.

I personally feel that 2 mppa will not only represent a profitable situation for all involved (whether that is reached by 2014 or later), but that it will also ensure that SEN can continue to offer something a little different in terms of passenger experience to that available at LTN and STN. SEN will certainly be tied to a movement cap of around 55,000 mpa by its planning consent Section 106 agreement so growth beyond 2 mppa might anyway become difficult. SEN would at that stage be similar is size to SOU today and I assume you would consider that to be a successful airport.

To be honest, I getting a bit tired of all this to and fro number exchange and meaningless speculation, so until something more interesting comes up I'm giving this thread a rest.

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 16:36

good news indeed:D

vulcanised

15th Aug 2012, 16:54

That's a stupid and totally wrong remark LTNman.

Expressflight is arguably the most knowledgeable contributor to this thread and has provided useful information on many occasions.

Aero Mad

15th Aug 2012, 17:47

The silencing of some truths (inconvenient and otherwise) can often be good news for those who don't wish to hear them.

Barling Magna

15th Aug 2012, 17:52

I know you were only joking, but not very funny LTNMan. :=

Expressflight is the most informed contributor to this thread, and to many others.

EI-BUD

15th Aug 2012, 18:30

Wouldn't say 4 times but Southend needs to attract jets that are not Southend
based to fill in the gaps. Think they might find it hard to get airlines out of
other London airports though but that is the way to go.

I think x4 comfortably and you are absolutely right that it is jets that are not SEN based that are needed. Hence my suggestion previously that Wizzair would be ideal airlines. As with LTN a wave of aircraft coming in just as the over nighting aircraft have left. And another wave in the evening before the 3 319s get back from their respective destinations.

The proof will be what easyJet do re STN and SEN, if EZY move another 319 over then it will prove that SEN is commercially working for EZY, airlines will watch this with interest. EZY @ STN will not be closed mainly because the 3 dometics are a great success and numbers strong, and no competition from Ryanair. If EZY moved STN EDI or GLA to SEN completely, FR would find it too attractive to pass up (EDI) and even BFS.

SEN now has to take the next step and sell the good news story that has been this summer, the olympics will be a good support. Looks like the domain of low cost airlines, and room for strong regional airlines who can develop thinner routes though sadly the list of possible airline options is getting smaller by the year.

asdf1234

15th Aug 2012, 18:31

I may be wrong but I sense that Expressflight has a vested interest in championing SEN?

Easyjet will be at SEN as long as their sweetheart deal lasts. At maximum profits of around £2.50 per seat flown the true test of SEN's worth to Easyjet is when Easyjet have to start paying for the use of the airport rather than SEN paying them.

Trying to gauge the success or otherwise of a new airport from 5 months operations, the majority of them summer months is just daft. By all means get excited at pax numbers in excess of 80k for one month but remember that Easyjet redeployed units to SEN, they didn't position new units there. As far as they are concerned they are simply serving the same Essex pax from a different location - no real increase in demand.

LTNman is right (and funny). I'm bored of SEN mouthpieces spouting off when the facts simply aren't there to make an informed judgement. I've posted elsewhere on the airport's dismal failure to attract business aviation, their laughable attempts to create a "world class" FBO facility (look at the pics - if that's world class Harrods must be laughing right now!) and their failure to open their own build hotel in time for the Olympics.

For all the spotters out there it must be terribly exciting to see 3 x based orange aircraft flying daily - to the rest of us it is business as normal until enough time passes to be able to accurately judge the success or otherwise of the airport.

Expressflight

15th Aug 2012, 18:43

asdf1234

Solely to avoid any possibility that my contributions here might be interpreted as anything other than my honest opinions, no I have commercial vested interest in SEN. I do have happy memories of many years working there though and I hope you get as much satisfaction of working in the industry as I did, assuming that you do.

EI-BUD

15th Aug 2012, 18:59

Easyjet will be at SEN as long as their sweetheart deal lasts. At maximum
profits of around £2.50 per seat flown the true test of SEN's worth to Easyjet
is when Easyjet have to start paying for the use of the airport rather than SEN
paying them.

Completely odd statement, can you explain how you know this detail? At this stage there are no indicators of success or failure of easyJet at SEN. I noted the term 'well informed facts' in your post somewhere.

I may be wrong but I sense that Expressflight has a vested interest in
championing SEN?

I sense you may be wrong too.

asdf1234

15th Aug 2012, 19:11

Happy to accept Expressflight's over enthusiastic championing of SEN as a direct result of his former employment there and not because of any commercial interests he may now have.

Easyjets per seat profits are public knowledge. Their average cost of their airport utilisation is approx 26-27% of seat revenue. As the majority of their summer flights out of SEN have been discounted to attract the pax we know that either 1) Easyjet are operating out of SEN at a loss right now or 2) SEN are paying Easyjet to be there. As these are relocated units (not new units) why would Easyjet make a loss to be at SEN? The answer is, they aren't making a loss. SEN are making a loss to promote their airport.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Easyjet have to pay the going rate for a landing and handling. If the pax loads don't support the £2.50 per seat profit margin they will relocate the aircraft. However I have pointed out that until meaningful time has passed all this is pure speculation. Let the spotters ooh and aah for now, it keeps them happy and the rest of us can put a distant date in the diary for a "I told you so" discussion in a few years time.

Tagron

15th Aug 2012, 20:19

The driving purpose surely of EZY’s SEN operation is not simply to cannibalise their STN traffic but to give themselves a competitive advantage by offering an alternative departure point in south east England and ultimately to grow their business in this way.

The use of introductory discounts or loss leaders seems an absolute no-brainer in this situation. We can make inspired guesses as to which party is bearing the brunt of the start up costs but none of us are privy to the contractual details between SEN and EZY and how these will pan out in the longer term.

The passenger figures are telling us that SEN works and that people are prepared to use it after years in the doldrums. That is an important first step. Jacking up yields can follow. EZY are not exactly inexperienced in that area. And by the way SEN fares are not necessarily that cheap at present - check EZY's website.

Certainly EZY will have their own projections on the growth of traffic and revenue and they will have assessed the reality of the situation already and how actual performance compares to the plan. Consistently since April, EZY’s public statements about their progress at SEN have been extremely positive.

But then they would say that, wouldn’t they ?

airhumberside

15th Aug 2012, 20:25

Thomsons/First Choice and Stobarts have not officially confirmed their twice-weekly flights to Palma yet because contracts need to be signed, but it got leaked out via the broker dealing with the Germania aircraft used by Fords.
Thomson put the info into the public domain via their brochures

LTNman

15th Aug 2012, 20:45

At 16:08 Expressflight wrote

To be honest, I getting a bit tired of all this to and fro number exchange and meaningless speculation, so until something more interesting comes up I'm giving this thread a rest.

At 18:48 Expressflight replied

Solely to avoid any possibility that my contributions here might be interpreted as anything other than my honest opinions

Well that didn't last long did it;););)

The problem is that you don't like other honest opinions if they are not seen by you as 100% pro Southend even when they are posted as pro Southend.

There are a few other usual suspects here with the same mind set. What a shame that this thread is welcoming only for a select few and where a post by me predicting Southend doing so well that it could be maxed out in a couple of years is seen as being negative. :oh::oh::oh::yuk:

Expressflight

15th Aug 2012, 21:11

LTNman

Your shots are just so cheap.

I was merely putting the record straight so that my position was clear. I suspect most will appreciate my reply for what it was.

Nakata77

16th Aug 2012, 01:44

STN pax numbers fell 5% in July'12

SEN pax numbers were 4.75% of STN monthly total

Interesting how close that number is.

Discuss!

tophat27dt

16th Aug 2012, 06:29

Is the breakdown for SEN's July pax figures available yet?
I am keeping a record of these on my PC...to watch them climb and climb and.....:O

ericlday

16th Aug 2012, 06:49

maintain altitude and heading !!

Expressflight

16th Aug 2012, 06:50

tophat27dt

At the risk of more invective from LTNman I'll risk posting the figures.

ALC 8,982
AGP 8,771
AMS 12,424
BCN 8,824
BFS 13,242
DUB 5,168
FAO 9,602
JER 4,872
IBZ 3,766
PMI 4,772
WAT 3,392
CGN 178
STN 272
Other 527

tophat27dt

16th Aug 2012, 15:20

thanks for the July figures...I dont give a SSHHIT about what this LTN man thinks...he is a jealous provocator....i just want the facts. Thanks

Expressflight

16th Aug 2012, 16:26

I see that SEN-PMI is shown in the Thomson online brochure as operating on Tuesdays and Saturdays from 4/5/13 until 22/10/13, but I cannot find reference to it on the booking engine. It will be interesting to see how prices compare with other airports when they become available.

stluke

16th Aug 2012, 19:38

I for one appreciate your posts express so keep them coming, looking at the figures for the AMS and BFS routes they look good with load factors between 70-75% and these are not summer holiday routes which bodes well from a standing start 5 months ago!!:D

shamrock7seal

17th Aug 2012, 03:40

Very encouraging figures indeed. SEN-WAT flight really doing well also. Leads me to believe that other regional Irish routes might do well - some that used to have direct London links from Ryanair with their ATR-42 a long time ago could do well. I'm thinking of Donegal, Sligo, Derry & Kerry

LTNman

17th Aug 2012, 05:48

I for one appreciate your posts express so keep them coming, looking at the figures for the AMS and BFS routes they look good with load factors between 70-75%

Having a quick look at prices for Monday it is clear to see that yields are very poor on the Belfast route. I did hear a while back that this route was already under review.

Southend- Belfast £50 Belfast- Southend £50
Gatwick-Belfast £135, Belfast Gatwick £185
Luton- Belfast £115 Belfast- Luton £170
Stansted- Belfast £120 Belfast –Stansted £125

All prices are the first flights of the day from each airport.

On Tuesday you can fly Belfast-Southend for only £34 plus the normal easyjet £9 admin fees which are applied to all their routes.

If the route is dropped then easyjet will no doubt redeploy the aircraft on new routes so will not affect future growth at Southend.

EI-BUD

17th Aug 2012, 06:15

My understanding is that the holiday routes to ALC FAO and AGP are doing exceptionally well on all fronts ie loads and yield.

Perhaps these are the types of routes where we will see capacity focusing on in the near future. BFS will be in the mix for the longer run as competition intensified in the Belfast Market for London routes. Easyjet may like to have the biggest area of London covered as a competitive advantage.

EI-BUD

cjags

17th Aug 2012, 06:15

Oh no, that must mean the SEN operation is a complete disaster :(

tophat27dt

17th Aug 2012, 06:16

Ryanair out here at Frankfurt-Hahn are often stopping and starting routes. I don't pretend to know the reasons, but it makes sense to drop those that lose money and find alternative options. EasyJet will no doubt do the same. Personally I was amazed when they announced Belfast from SEN twice a day, and yet the total pax carried so far is amazing (for me, I mean). I believe next year we will see more new destinations to the east, like Berlin, Prague, Budapest, etc. They make fine places to go to for a short-break holiday. I believe EasyJet will always have an operation at SEN and hopefully a very profitable one for airport and airline alike.

LTNman

17th Aug 2012, 06:22

Oh no, that must mean the SEN operation is a complete disaster

I know you are only joking but no one is saying that but Easyjet has put its toe in the Southend water and needs time to see which routes work for this airport and this one doesn't despite being the airports top selling route.

smallpilot

17th Aug 2012, 06:39

Anecdotal evidence in the area suggests a route to GLA or EDI could be well used.

EI-BUD

17th Aug 2012, 06:43

GLA & EDI, why would easyJet go for this? STN routes to these 2 airports are very successful and would be canibalised, and if were withdrawn in favour of SEN it is almost a cert that Ryanair would join STN EDI...?

LTNman

17th Aug 2012, 06:50

Might be a factor that there is no public transport available from London to get passengers to the airport for this 7am departure.

tophat27dt

17th Aug 2012, 07:37

I wonder if Stobart has enough influence over the railway company to introduce more early and late trains next year. Personally, if I have an early departure, I stay overnight in a hotel and travel refreshed. Next month the Holiday Inn will be open so that may appeal to some. Others will make alternative travel arrangements.

Barling Magna

17th Aug 2012, 08:30

EI-BUD wrote:
GLA & EDI, why would easyJet go for this? STN routes to these 2 airports are very successful and would be canibalised, and if were withdrawn in favour of SEN it is almost a cert that Ryanair would join STN EDI...? 17th Aug 2012 07:39

One factor might be the large presence Royal Bank of Scotland has at Southend?

Expressflight

17th Aug 2012, 08:36

LTNman

I have monitored the fare levels on LON-BFS-LON regularly since the SEN route started and the differential whereby SEN was much cheaper initially than STN, LTN or LGW has started to decrease in the past couple of months. I tend to choose dates 7 days ahead and a glance at travel on the 24 or 25 August shows much less differential than the figures you quoted for travel next Monday - correct as those are. Quite what that tells us I'm not quite sure to be honest!

The first BFS departures to LGW, STN and LTN are all before 0700, so I wonder if easyJet actually place some value on having an 0840 departure to LON in the shape of the SEN service. Generally the LON-BFS-LON traffic will be business biased so the build up of any new route is likely to be slower in that case and I would be surprised if easyJet are unhappy with a 73% load factor for SEN-BFS in July.

I agree with the point you make in your other post to the effect that some routes will work better than others and it takes time to see which are which. I would say the jury is still out on BFS and the winter traffic levels will probably give us the answer.

Your point about the lack of a early train from Liverpool Street is certainly true and I haven't heard recently of any progress in resolving that problem. Apparently Network Rail are very reluctant to open up the line any earlier and it may perhaps need Stobarts to use any political influence they may have to break the stalemate.

davidjohnson6

17th Aug 2012, 08:52

If the rail line cannot be opened easily, can Stobart persuade National Express, Terravision, Easybus or Greenline to run a route to central London or Stratford early morning and late evening ?

I realise that with only a few services a day and traffic likely to be very unidirectional operational cost per passenger will be higher.

smallpilot

17th Aug 2012, 09:07

Earlier trains from London would be helpful. However I'm curious to know what percentage of Pax are coming by train. I'd suspect its quite low from how full the car parks are and the constant dropping off of people by cars / taxis outside he terminal. A lot of the people using the airport are local to South Essex. In addition there is the new Holiday Inn at the airport opening this month and there is a Premier Inn moff the A127 by the 06 threshold, just 3 mins away by cab.

Barling Magna

17th Aug 2012, 09:13

Well, there always seems to be a stream of people crossing over to the station after a flight arrival, but I suppose 20-30 people looks a lot in that confined space. It would indeed be interesting to know the balance between rail and road - maybe this is something the aviation enthusiasts (can't bear the derogotary title of "spotters") can do one day?

tophat27dt

17th Aug 2012, 13:22

it's all such a new operation...for the airport, the airlines, the train company, the taxis.....if only 20 pax get off the last flight and want a train, surely its not worthwhile laying on an 8-carriage train to Liverpool Street for them.....but if (eventually) there are several hundred people, i am sure minds will think differently.

For me, as a passenger on low cost carriers (not only) across the world, if there is no public transport, I make my own arrangements...no big deal and sometimes less stres.

LTNman

17th Aug 2012, 14:51

Southend had 84,792 passengers in July 2012

The sky really is the limit for London Southend Airport as it welcomes the 500th new member of staff on site

That works out as 5.4 passengers a day per member of staff. Is Southed an airport or a cruise ship:eek::confused:

LGS6753

17th Aug 2012, 15:01

pug

17th Aug 2012, 15:13

...but other "staff on site" will be involved in aircraft maintenance, spraying, training and hotel & parking staff too. I read this bit of PR fluff to include all employers on site - to make it look more impressive!

Whats wrong with that? Nowehere does it say that the 500 employees are related to the passenger operation. :rolleyes:

tophat27dt

17th Aug 2012, 15:29

Absolutely right....500 staff extra on an airport.....it's in every department.....the more flights (pax, freight, maintenance) will require extra staff.

LTNman

17th Aug 2012, 15:31

I know that. Just a light hearted comment on a Friday afternoon to see who is awake:p

Expressflight

17th Aug 2012, 15:38

LTNman

You are correct, I believe, (how much longer can I keep this up?) in assuming that the 500 employees relates to operation of the airport and the airline activities. I don't think it includes the MRO companies etc. operating on the airport although I stand to be corrected if anyone knows for sure. The ATC Lasham, Air Livery, Inflite and IPECO operations are substantial and must amount to well over 500 employees themselves.

I don't seem able to dig it out at the moment but I produced a paper for a local politician a few years back estimating the number of employees that SEN would be likely to generate at 2 mmpa, including MRO activity etc. and I think the answer came out at between 1,750 and 2,000. Maybe someone has comparable figures for other airports to see if 5.4 ppd per employee is as daft as it might at first appear.

Mind you if an airport wants to offer "cruise ship" levels of service it obviously needs cruise ship staffing levels!

Expressflight

17th Aug 2012, 15:53

I've just found the report I produced and that showed that each employee at LCY and SOU served 4.5 ppd and BHX served 3.8 ppd. These figures were for 2009.

With SEN at 2 mppa I projected it would need 1,200 employees, excluding all the MRO and other aviation related businesses active on the airport, so that would be 4.6 ppd per employee.

So if 5.4 passengers per day per member of staff are being processed at SEN at the moment they are operating more efficiently than I predicted, but this may be accounted for by technology changes and less hold baggage etc. since 2009, so requiring less staff.

LTNman

17th Aug 2012, 16:06

Anything that creates jobs in these hard times has to be a good thing for town and country.

davidjohnson6

17th Aug 2012, 16:39

So that's 500 people who are employed in some way or other with the overall aim of helping their fellow Brits travel quickly to and spend their money on a Mediterranean beach, giving money for food and a roof over their head to Johnny Foreigner.

And yet we wonder why the UK economy is so feeble at the moment...

pug

17th Aug 2012, 16:49

And yet we wonder why the UK economy is so feeble at the moment...

...And there was me thinking the UK trade deficit was the problem :ugh: Its not like these new employees will be contributing to the local economy or anythingn is it.. :rolleyes:

Expressflight

17th Aug 2012, 16:52

....... but I wouldn't even like to think about all the UK taxation that I, my employees and my aviation companies have paid over the past 40 odd years. There's always another side to every equation.

Buster the Bear

17th Aug 2012, 19:12

In my day for every million passenger through put, would deliver 1000 jobs locally and another 1000 in ancillary. I guess today the numbers might be less?

mikkie4

17th Aug 2012, 22:57

stobarts have trains,why not put one /two of them on for the late/early flights?

davidjohnson6

17th Aug 2012, 23:16

What trains do Stobart have that are capable of carrying passengers (not freight) and which don"t partly involve a steam train pulling ancient coaches on a tour through the countryside ?

mikkie4

18th Aug 2012, 00:58

if stobarts can spend upteen million pounds on an airport ,what price a couple of railway carridges?????coulpe of grand each

compton3bravo

18th Aug 2012, 04:22

I think some of you guys want to gen up on how and how not the railway system in the UK works. Stations owned by one company, carriages owned by another etc. You just cannot put a ´´Puffing Billy´´ on when you want to!

davidjohnson6

18th Aug 2012, 05:02

Stobart used to run steam trains for spotters - ceased a few years ago. Stobart used to (still do ?) have an involvement with moving freight by train. Sourcing 4 carriages for a twice daily run to Liverpool St for passengers is quite a different game.

LTNman

18th Aug 2012, 05:48

Routes are awarded as franchises for the payment of large fees. No doubt one off charters are allowed but not a scheduled passenger service.

rowly6339

18th Aug 2012, 19:26

Stobart Rail is freight and engineering/maint, why on earth would they want to start running passenger trains?:=

airhumberside

18th Aug 2012, 19:34

Routes are awarded as franchises for the payment of large fees. No doubt one off charters are allowed but not a scheduled passenger service.
'Open Access' operators are allowed - Heathrow Express is one - but they need to prove they are not abstracting most of their revenue from franchised operators

LN-KGL

19th Aug 2012, 14:55

In case you want to know the passengers per employee per day number for Manchester Airport is 2.8. The Manchester airport site state "around 19,000 people employed directly on-site" and with 19,324,997 terminal passengers in 2011 out of the calculator pops this rather low number. As a comparison my own home airport, Oslo Airport/Gardermoen, has 4.8 passengers per employee on site per day.

Now back to the July numbers for Southend, or more correct the passenger numbers the four last months at the airport. The growth these four months compared with the same months last year was 248,906 passengers. During the same months the neighbouring Stansted continued its decline with 275,718 passengers. The growth at SEN was 90% of the decline at STN. I don't think we can conclude that SEN is the cause to the decline at STN, but SEN has a share in this. In 2011 the decline at STN was 2.8%. These four last months the decline at STN has been 4.1% - bit worse than the average last year. I guess some of the growth at SEN can have been old STN customers.

To set this growth at SEN in perspective, let's look at the largest London airports and their growth January to July this year. I have corrected the growth numbers due to the leap day in February, and here they are:

Heathrow = +229,792 passengers
Gatwick = +232,238 passengers
Stansted = -487,008 passengers
Luton = +64,653 passengers
London City = -14,351 passengers
Southend = +255,107 passengers

In other words Sounthend has the strongest growth of all London airports the first 7 months this year. This may come as a surprice to many here I guess.

vulcanised

19th Aug 2012, 16:48

Not really surprised since SEN started from such a low base. Good news though, and I wonder what the statistics will be this time next year?

LTNman

19th Aug 2012, 17:16

Doesn't surprise me either as it was what was expected.

pottwiddler

19th Aug 2012, 17:22

This year's growth figures are very misleading, so should be ignored. Hopefully the airport management are happy with the figures that they have currently got.

Next year will be telling, no Olympic Passengers just your normal type of traveller going into London on a cheap flight.

compton3bravo

19th Aug 2012, 17:22

Those Stansted figures are terrible. Down hearly half a million in seven months.

LN-KGL

19th Aug 2012, 18:39

-450,085 passengers if not corrected for the leap day compton3bravo.

In 2011 there was 133,594,431 terminal passengers at the six London airports Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, City and Southend. The total growth the seven months of 2012 is 635,367 passengers which equals to 0.48% growth. These growth numbers are including the leap day, and with that day excluded the real growth is only 0.2% over these seven months.

There are other parts of the UK that have experienced more positive tones, like Britol, Aberdeen and Birmingham that all had a growth of over 4% in July.

Aero Mad

19th Aug 2012, 22:04

As pottwidler says, you can't really look at SEN's 2012 year-on-year growth figures with any degree of realism as it really is a different airport to this time last year. This time next year (if there hasn't been a total economic meltdown by then :ooh:), perhaps we might be seeing growth in percentage terms more similar to other UK airports... especially if the rumour regarding proposed U2 expansion is true.

Expressflight

20th Aug 2012, 07:05

Regarding the "rumoured U2 expansion", I would be surprised if they increased the based fleet until the doubling of the size of the terminal is completed. Perhaps some w-patterns might be operated to increase the number of destinations available for S13.

davidjohnson6

20th Aug 2012, 10:09

How does the sale (when it actually happens !) by BAA of Stansted affect Southend ?

Presumably any new operator will likely be rather more aggressive for new customers, will not be constrained by internal policies vis-a-vis Heathrow, and no longer need to adopt a strategy at STN consistent with its legal arguments against the Competition Commission.

In particular, will this make Southend more or less appealing to airlines compared to Stansted, once the sale is completed ?

vulcanised

20th Aug 2012, 11:29

any new operator will likely be rather more aggressive for new customers

Depends on how much they pay for STN.

commit aviation

20th Aug 2012, 12:56

Remember that STN is still a regulated airfield so the charges are set to a certain extent by the government. Whilst I have no doubt the new owners will find ways to "sweeten the pot" if needs be, it will still put STN at a competetive disadvantage to the likes of SEN & LTN.
I see no need for SEN to panic!!

McGoonagall

23rd Aug 2012, 08:57

Well, tried SEN last Sunday with a flight to AMS. Very impressed with the quick transit from the rammed train to the terminal. Less than 10 mins from bag drop to through security and a cold beer. Speedy boarding worked fine. Just one point, security. No problem, rucksack and belt, coins, mobile etc into the tray. Through the arch and away. Only later in the hotel, 'er in the window seat produced a three pointed triangular screwdriver about 6" in diameter, a large railway 'T' key and a large bunch of various keys from the rucksack. I had forgotten to remove them with the other railway equipment. They seemed more interested with swabbing laptops for explosive residue. If security is to be effective then the sharp metal objects should have been identified.

Red Four

24th Aug 2012, 18:16

This is a fun summary of the last couple of years work at SEN:
Timelapse video of London Southend Airport's new passenger terminal - YouTube

fatmed

28th Aug 2012, 10:00

copied from sen website today!

You are here London Southend Airport LSA - Community Relations & News Latest News London Southend Airport applies for Controlled Airspace
London Southend Airport applies for Controlled Airspace

London Southend Airport has started the process to apply for ‘controlled airspace’ in order to safeguard aircraft approaching and departing from the airport and minimise distance flown to improve environmental performance.

*The Airport had Controlled Airspace until 1992, when it was removed following a reduction in scheduled services using the airport. Temporary Controlled Airspace was also in operation at the airport during the London Olympic Games.

Controlled Airspace is a defined area of the air space around an airport where any aircraft must communicate with Air Traffic Control.* The application to introduce controlled airspace was one of the commitments the airport made to local councils and community groups as part of the airport’s redevelopment.*

Currently aircraft are permitted to come within 2.5 miles and 2000 feet in height of London Southend Airport without having to talk to air traffic controllers, which can lead to unplanned alterations to an aircraft’s track and possible delays in the arrival and departure of scheduled flights.

The application process - which is envisaged to take around two years to complete - will include an extensive public consultation process during late 2013.

The final decision over whether to reinstate the Controlled Airspace over London Southend Airport will be taken by the Directorate of Airspace Policy (DAP) within the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

London Southend Airport Managing Director Alastair Welch explained “Safety and security are our number one priority. *Controlled Airspace safeguards aircraft when they are approaching and departing the airport. Improving our efficiency by getting aircraft in and out of the airport without last minute alterations and delays will also minimise the impact of the airport’s operations on the local community and is much better for the environment. Temporary Controlled Airspace around London Southend Airport was operated very successfully during the London 2012 Games, and we are now seeking to have this reinstated as a permanent feature.”

tws123

28th Aug 2012, 18:35

Looks like OLT Express Germany plan to start flights from Southend to Dresden and Saarbrücken this October. Have a look at the link. OLT Express GMBH - Flugplan - London - Southend (SEN) (http://oltexpress.partners.de/de/rozklad_lotow/london)

j636

28th Aug 2012, 19:00

When its in German it shows SEN but when Google Translates its showing LTN.

tws123

28th Aug 2012, 19:07

On the link it quite clearly says Southend and i've heard nowhere about Luton, only Southend. These are purely plans and not officially announced yet :ok:

davidjohnson6

28th Aug 2012, 20:29

Have been wondering for a while when Dresden would get a link to London. Well served by leisure airlines taking locals to beaches in the Med, but virtually nothing to major cities outside Germany. Train line from Berlin is slow (minimum 2h30 from Tegel / Schonefeld), the train line to Leipzig isn't great either, and the line to Wroclaw is hopeless.
Oh yeah - and now that the locals have fixed up the mess we made in 1945, the city looks quite good as well. Bit of a shame that the route is being launched just before the winter season starts though.

Slightly off topic, but do OLT Express Germany intend to rebrand ? The bankruptcy of OLT Express Poland earlier in the summer gives me cause for concern before booking a ticket.

tws123

29th Aug 2012, 07:38

Panta Holdings have bought OLT Express Germany (who are still flying successfully). OLT Express recently bought Contact Air and so their fleet is be integrated into OLTs and hence with the inherited fleet they want to expand their route network. Interestingly Panta Holdings also own Denim Air.

tophat27dt

29th Aug 2012, 08:14

For the people of Saarbrucken and other large cities nearby, it would save them driving one hour to Luxembourg in order to fly to London. For English tourists, there is nothing special to see in Saarbrucken, but Dresden is a beautiful city and well worth a short-break there. I cannot open the link to OLT-Germany which mentions any plans to SEN, but if they want to start in the autumn, they should start advertising now, I would have thought. Fokker 100s?

tws123

29th Aug 2012, 08:50

They've now password locked the webpage so don't bother trying to access it now :ugh:It mentions F100s to be used. OLT will inherit 7 x F100s from Contact Air.

davidjohnson6

29th Aug 2012, 09:35

tophat - apologies for going off topic, but while I agree that Saarbrucken city isn't much to see in its own right, only a few miles away, there is a UNESCO World Heritage site, in Volklinger Hutte. Perverse though it may be, last time I was there at the weekend it was crawling with visitors. As to how many people will want to fly from Southend just to see Volklingen is an entirely different story...

tws123 - could I suggest an alternate website for OLT Express (admittedly it doesn't show the Southend routes, but then again I was under the understanding that they hadn't gone on sale quite yet)
Flights within Europe - Flight offers - Book flights online (http://gds.oltexpress.de/en/home/)

Tagron

29th Aug 2012, 10:04

It looks as though that webpage escaped prematurely into the public domain. Certainly it gave the impression of not being joined up with the existing OLT Express website. I would imagine that finding work for all those F100s and undergoing a change of company ownership only three weeks ago is causing some intensive planning activity. Something more definitive will presumably emerge very soon especially if those October start dates are to be adhered to.

For what I recall of that now vanished webpage, SEN-Dresden was to be daily, and
Saarbrucken three times a week. It also included several other new routes mainly centred on Munster, which have already been announced.

OLT has a long history in Germany so perhaps the new owners will rely on that and their own track record to reassure potential passengers. As for the UK I would guess most potential customers other than those in the industry have never heard of OLT and the Polish debacle so that problem will not arise, but the lack or brand awareness may be one they have to contend with.

On the face of it OLT’s type of operation, perhaps offering the potential for further expansion in future, looks a good fit for SEN. One hopes the F100 does not prove too big. At least it is a real airline with real aircraft.

alm1

29th Aug 2012, 10:17

Direct Belin Linien Bus takes only 1:50 from Dresden city center to Berlin Schoenefield airport. That is roughly comparable to Frankfurt to Hahn (which is only 5 min shorter). So I do not see too much untapped potential from Dresden.

tophat27dt

29th Aug 2012, 10:25

I doubt if the aim of a SEN-Saarbrucken route would be to attract tourists to Volkingen, as interesting and unique as it it. The city is nice for shops and restaurants, but is not in the same league as Berlin or Munich.
I was hoping the Saarbrucken route would be twice daily to London, so it would be in a healthy competition with the three airlines operating from LUX to London daily. Does anybody know the runway length requirements for a fully laiden FK100?

Tagron

29th Aug 2012, 10:43

It is impossible to be too prescriptive about maximum takeoff weights without access to data specific to the aircraft version and the runway in use. However the Contact Air website gives some guidance. It quotes a take off distance of 1855m and a landing distance of 1320m. I am assuming it means at maximum weight though it doesn't specify. So, most likely entirely viable from SEN given that the proposed sector lengths would not require heavy fuel loads.

Expressflight

29th Aug 2012, 10:48

tophat27dt

SEN should present no problems performancewise for the F100 on the 500nm SEN-DRS sector length. Both DRS and SCN were shown on the website as being operated by F100 equipment.

The DRS plan seems to be a daily rotation arriving SEN 1045 M-F, 0720 Sa and 1420 Su, but that's a lot of capacity for a route which when operated from LHR carried 41,000 pax in 2011. bmi operated it for LH from April 2010 with A319s but it was transferred to LH City Line after about a year I believe. The route was pulled at the end of March 2012.

It may well be that OLT Express fares will be somewhat lower than were those of LH so they may attract a wider market. The new owners are very experienced so one would assume the economics have been carefully considered.

On the website, before access was locked, SCN-SEN was shown as 3 x weekly arriving SEN 1345 Tu & Th and 0645 Sa.

LTNman

29th Aug 2012, 11:16

Wonder what will fail first, the route or the airline?

vulcanised

29th Aug 2012, 11:32

Wonder what will fail first, the route or the airline?

Or, hopefully, your keyboard.

LTNman

29th Aug 2012, 11:46

Or, hopefully, your keyboard.

That was a really funny comment which has put a big smile on my face:D ;)

Barling Magna

29th Aug 2012, 12:27

.... and you're normally so grumpy, LTNMan. :)

compton3bravo

29th Aug 2012, 16:00

My parents told me some time ago that the Dresden run was very popular about 70 years ago, apparently started by some chap called Harris!

SENChris

29th Aug 2012, 18:08

I've got to admit, a daily F100 seems like an awful lot of seats for Dresden, particularly when neither the airline nor the city have particular recognition among the British public. Fairly clearly the airline looks to be targeting the German traveller coming to London but I guess time will tell whether this level of frequency ultimately turns out to be too ambitious, if it actually launches that is...

I've got to say I am somewhat surprised at their route choices as neither Dresden nor Saarbrücken would be very high up my list of German cities to serve. I would have thought Berlin, Frankfurt and Munich at the very least would be more popular. From what I understand, OLT seem to have a reasonable sized presence at Dresden and with the fleet expansion, perhaps there would be the potential to expand further or to serve alternative routes depending on how these work out.

tws123

29th Aug 2012, 19:49

For those who didn't get a chance to read the page, although now password locked if you type into google 'olt express germany sen' the first result shows you some info on that page. It headlines as 'OLT Express GMBH - Flugplan - London - Southend (SEN)' and then read the available info below it. :ooh:

tophat27dt

29th Aug 2012, 23:42

But on Wikipedia, it says they will use London-Gatwick from October 2012, no mention of Southend.

Expressflight

30th Aug 2012, 07:12

tophat27dt

You're looking at the Wikipedia entry for the now defunct OLT Express Poland. The Wikipedia Dresden Airport entry says SEN, but then that may have come from here.

Mind you it did seem to me yesterday that SEN were perhaps rather surprised by the story, so who knows. It certainly doesn't leave much time to market the route before launch.

tws123

30th Aug 2012, 08:19

The wikipedia entry was how I found the link to the whole story!

vulcanised

30th Aug 2012, 11:31

It's got me wondering whether that page was leaked 'accidentally on purpose'.

tophat27dt

30th Aug 2012, 11:43

What would be the purpore of doing that, in this case?

approach24

30th Aug 2012, 12:34

Saarbruecken - SEN now advertised on the OLT Express de website along with a press release. Also advertised on the Saarbruecken Airport website.

davidjohnson6

30th Aug 2012, 13:01

As all are aware, OLT Express will find life easier at Southend if they can gain some UK originating traffic, rather than relying purely on German originating traffic. Without a strong brand in the UK, I assume that anyone thinking of booking a ticket would Google the company to check they are a plausible outfit.

I really do hope that OLT Express (Germany) do something about their brand name.
If I Google "OLT Express", on the first page of results, every link is to the Polish carrier, with 4 of the links referring to people being stranded, bankruptcy, and the airline being grounded.

Route seems to begin in less than 5 weeks - hope this is enough time to get forward bookings going.

Oh yeah - and an option on the homepage to switch from German to English might be nice.

Don't get me wrong - I really would like to see this route work, but I can just see a bit of an uphill struggle ahead.

Phileas Fogg

30th Aug 2012, 13:33

I lived and worked in Luxembourg for a few years, Saarbrucken is a poor person's Luxembourg, very few people actually want to fly to/from there, correct me if I am mistaken but has there ever been a LHR/Saarbrucken service? ..... And if LHR/Saarbrucken isn't viable then go figure what chances SEN, LGW, STN, LTN or wherever ..... such a route will last about one season or less

Barling Magna

30th Aug 2012, 14:06

It does seem a strange choice of route; Dresden would have been much more viable, I reckon.......

serko

30th Aug 2012, 14:35

€98 return isn't a bad price though. Maybe Dresden will be confirmed later when more planes become available.

Yak97

30th Aug 2012, 15:03

Isn't there a Ford car plant near Saarbruken?

Barling Magna

30th Aug 2012, 16:11

Yes, at Saarlouis only a few miles to the north west. Might generate some traffic I suppose.....

tophat27dt

30th Aug 2012, 19:51

Saarlouis is also a decent sized city not far from Saarbrucken, but I am a bit worried about the Saturday schedule (Dep SEN 0715). How do they expects passengers to get from London. There are no trains. This is where I am sure one day Stobarts will ensure things change on that rail-link. Dresden is not yet confirmed but is written about in many press releases around Europe. A lovely city, well worth a 3 nights short break. A flattened city from WW2, and now lovingly restored. Good luck to all. :D

davidjohnson6

30th Aug 2012, 20:43

0528 from London Liverpool Street arrives 0632 at Southend Airport.
Just about OK for those who have already checked in on the web and printed out their boarding card, have no luggage, have no mobility issues (e.g. difficulty walking), prepared to take a bit of a gamble on the train not being too late / cancelled, and would not consider it a disaster if they ended up missing the flight.

For anyone who doesn't meet all those conditions and are coming by train from London, I agree there are issues with an 0715 departure

tophat27dt

30th Aug 2012, 21:13

One could argue that three easyJet flights depart before 0730 every morning, but they are holiday makers..friends can drop them off by car, etc...but for foreigners visiting London, it could be a bit tight to make that first train. Pax from Saarbrucken are used to early departures, our two Luxair flights position in via SCN every morning just after 0630! Will OLT Express only operate FK100s? what about Saab 2000s and Dornier 328s?

Tagron

30th Aug 2012, 21:54

Some would consider that staying in the airport hotel overnight would be a good way of coping with early departures.

Barling Magna

30th Aug 2012, 21:58

....and the Holiday Inn Southend Airport opens on 14th September.....

LTNman

30th Aug 2012, 22:01

London Southend Airport tries to process all passengers as efficiently as possible. London Southend Airport advises all scheduled flight passengers to arrive two hours before the scheduled departure of their flight.

Passengers with hand luggage only can check in up to 40 minutes before take-off. All passengers with hold luggage should check in at least one hour before their flight is due to take off.

Passengers should be aware that the terminal building is open between 04:00 and 00:00. All passengers arriving before 04:00 will not be allowed access to the terminal.

No one in their right mind would chance the first train of the day as the times are too tight.

I have read comments on other websites that the airport makes passengers stand outside if they arrive too early while the staff look out of the windows at them. I didn't believe it until I read the airports website and it is true!!! Come on Southend the terminal must be staffed overnight so why make your passengers wait outside in the cold and rain. This is supposed to be a London Airport and not a bus stop.

tophat27dt

30th Aug 2012, 22:06

I am not sure it is staffed overnight...only staff in the railway station...but of course thats no excuse not to open the damn doors and let people inside!

rowly6339

30th Aug 2012, 22:10

If that was the case then you would have tramps sleeping there at night, why would it be open if there are no staff?

LTNman

30th Aug 2012, 22:15

I am not sure it is staffed overnight...only staff in the railway station

From the website

The station opens 15 minutes before departure of the first train and closes immediately after departure of the last train.

Barling Magna

30th Aug 2012, 22:29

I guess the rail company will only run an additional service if there is evidence of demand, and the only way to get evidence of demand is to attract more services departing before 7.00 a.m. ........ It's a comparatively small issue but an important one nonetheless. I'm sure Stobart Air are working hard to overcome this, but it would be good to see some positive results soon....

davidjohnson6

30th Aug 2012, 22:53

Running a train service on track that is normally closed at 4:30 am involves getting quite a few different organisations to sign up - unlikely to be easy for the time being.

Could the train company however not at least run a coach very early morning and very late at night between Liverpool Street station and Southend airport, stopping at maybe Stratford and Romford on the way as intermediate points ?

LTNman

31st Aug 2012, 05:14

Trains run into London really early, they just don't leave London early. At night it is the other way around.

Expressflight

31st Aug 2012, 07:24

A lot of valid points have been raised in the last few posts, so let's clarify a few things to avoid misunderstandings:

The terminal does not open until 0400 and I can't see that it would be reasonable to expect overnight security to just open the doors to anyone standing outside earlier than that. The opening of the Holiday Inn in two weeks will certainly add another option for pax on early departures.

It isn't the train operator that refuses to operate an earlier train, it's Network Rail who do not want to lose any of their overnight track closure period. I understand that SEN are lobbying hard to get that attitude changed or overruled. I quite agree with those who say that no one can be expected to rely on the 0632 train arrival to catch a flight at 0715. Currently it's not just 'holiday flights' that are affected either; there are the 0645 DUB, 0700 BFS & 0730 AMS all of which will have a large business user element.

An early morning coach from Liverpool Street calling at Stratford and Romford is a good idea at first sight, but it would have to be well advertised. I hope SEN have looked seriously at that idea.

I'm surprised that OLT have scheduled the Sa departure to SCN for 0715 when a delay until 0745 would overcome the train situation (the first two train arrivals are then viable) and surely could be accomodated in the ongoing schedules for the aircraft, as I assume it's one of the additional Contact Air F100s that is forming the basis of the new routes from SCN. The rationale of the SCN-SEN timetable escapes me anyway with no provision for a weekend trip in either direction. The early Sa gets you there but you can't get back until Tu afternoon, so at whom is the Sa flight aimed?

LTNman

31st Aug 2012, 07:37

The terminal does not open until 0400 and I can't see that it would be reasonable to expect overnight security to just open the doors to anyone standing outside earlier than that.

Sorry I disagree. Luton has 24 hour rail and coach services yet many passengers choose to spend the night in the terminal. Southend claim that 500 people now work at the airport. Maybe that should be increased to 501

I'm surprised that OLT have scheduled the Sa departure to SCN for 0715

I bet they have no idea about the trasnsport situation.

Expressflight

31st Aug 2012, 08:02

LTNman

It would be disappointing if OLT have not been made aware of the train situation but it's certainly a possibility I suppose.

I don't really see why the SEN terminal should be open between midnight and 0400. I know you're not serious in saying that only one additional employee would be needed, but equally I don't see why anyone should feel the need to arrive three hours before the first scheduled departure. I honestly think you are making a mountain out of a molehill on this subject.

Barling Magna

31st Aug 2012, 08:50

I hope that Europort Express, JOIN and all the other supposed start-ups are aware of the train schedules - just in case they actually start flying into SEN. Any news on these outfits....?

davidjohnson6

31st Aug 2012, 09:45

Expressflight - admittedly a somewhat tenuous suggestion, but I'm wondering if the Saturday morning flight from SEN to Saarbrucken is aimed partly at those travelling to places near Luxembourg.

Easyjet have flight from Gatwick to Luxembourg at 1430 on Friday and Sunday afternoon arriving at about 1700. Flight then departs Luxembourg at 1730 back to Gatwick.
A 1430 from Gatwick is too early for anyone working in an office on Friday.
There is a bus taking 1h15 from Saarbrucken to Luxembourg.

Thus a SEN-SCN on Saturday early morning can be combined with a LUX-LGW on Sunday late afternoon.

Phileas Fogg

31st Aug 2012, 10:03

For Luxembourg they'll have difficulty competing on fares, and routes, with the Mad Irishman's outfit in/out of Hahn and/or Charleroi!

Expressflight

31st Aug 2012, 10:25

Barling Magna

I wouldn't put any credence to Europort Express coming to anything, although I would like to be proven wrong.

JOIN has been a very long time in gestation, but you never know ......

tws123

31st Aug 2012, 10:32

Last time I heard they were close to having all their funding in place so fingers crossed. At least they seem to take things slow and get it right as opposed to rushing around to get things organised - they look promising. :D

stluke

31st Aug 2012, 11:38

Why have Southend Airport not mentioned OLT Express start up, it's meant to start in little over a month and nothing!?

tophat27dt

31st Aug 2012, 12:27

The local press is aware, but are not allowed to report it until Stobart's make a press release. The sooner the local people know about it the better, but i too don't know why it takes so long. Perhaps OLTexpress haven't even told SEN yet! Contracts have to be agreed and signed. etc.

irishlad06

31st Aug 2012, 12:29

I don't think any contracts will be signed by olt express considering they suspended operations and are bankrupt.

Phileas Fogg

31st Aug 2012, 12:32

Bullsh1t tophat27dt ... That's like suggesting the press weren't allowed to report that Princess Di were having her affair(s) until 'Big Ears' reported it :)

tophat27dt

31st Aug 2012, 12:33

but that was the Polish division...not the German one

tophat27dt

31st Aug 2012, 12:36

The Evening Echo have before leaked news about the start-up airlines when they allegedly started to sell tickets on thier websites, then nothing happened, but Stobarts has some sort of news control since then, and can only print their official press releases.

davidjohnson6

31st Aug 2012, 13:26

Perhaps this is being done on the basis of a standard news embargo ? Often happens for things like corporate press releases.

News embargo - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_embargo)

LTNman

31st Aug 2012, 19:30

How many hectares of land does the airport sit on?

Barling Magna

31st Aug 2012, 20:27

Do you want to buy it...?

LTNman

31st Aug 2012, 21:03

Just been reading a report of how many hectares of land each million passengers get at the UK’s airports.

Stansted for example has 957ha. With a forecast of 35 million passengers that works out at 27.3ha per million passengers.

Of all the airports listed Luton sits on the smallest piece of land at only 245 ha. With a forecast of 18 million passengers that works out as 13.6ha per million passengers.

Just wanted to know how many hectares of land Southend sits on to see what its full potential is.

Barling Magna

31st Aug 2012, 22:11

Well, I don't know and I can't seem to find it anywhere on the web. So I've got out my OS map and tried to calculate the area from that. The result of my simple calculation is about 220 hectares....... how far that is from the reality, I really can't say.

LTNman

1st Sep 2012, 05:16

Southend comes top then out of the airports listed but what is Southend's true potential?

Southend
220 hectares
2,000,000 passenger forecast
110 hectares per million passengers

East Midlands
445 hectares
9,000,000 passenger forecast
49.4 hectares per million passengers

Stansted
957 hectares
35,000,000 passenger forecast
27.3 hectares per million passengers

Manchester
710 hectares
30,000,000 passenger forecast
23.7 hectares per million passengers

Edinburgh
367 hectares
16,000,000 passenger forecast
22.9 hectares per million passengers

Glasgow
340 hectares
17,000,000 passenger forecast
20 hectares per million passengers

Gatwick
674 hectares
38,000,000 passenger forecast
17.7 hectares per million passengers

Birmingham
330 hectares
20,000,000 passenger forecast
16.5 hectares per million passengers

Luton
245 hectares
18,000,000 passenger forecast
13.6 hectares per million passengers