Along with the "G" reg comes CAA oversight and inspection................not something MOL will be keen on.

However, Ryanair is apparently in the process of moving two Polish and two Maltese aircraft two Ryanair UK. Not sure it that will be sufficient to get below the 50 per cent threshold.

Reading the Brexiteer grievances here is worth the gold :D

Surely the CAA should require the number of UK - registered a/c to at least equal the number of a/c which are normally on the ground overnight in the UK in low season.

virginblue

Out of curiosity is there an available source for this?

It was posted on a German aviation forum by someone who quoted ch-aviation (the article he linked to is paywalled):

https://www.vielfliegertreff.de/sons...ml#post3323733

Handy link if I could speak German.

Try having a look at the following (mentioned in the post from virginblue)
https://aviation.direct/ryanair-uk-u...eiche-strecken

You can set Chrome to automatically translate other languages for you - or use Google Translate. The link from virginblue gives the aircraft registration details

LTNman
"Worth reading this from 2016 when they threatened to cut investment in the U.K in retaliation for the U.K voting to leave the EU. Well that never happened did it."
It is worth reading. Did you read it?
I read nothing of any threat or in retaliation.
I did read read about possible future plans to pivot growth toward Europe and perhaps set up a UK Operating Licence.
Are you tilting at windmills, DQ?

There appear to be a large number of routes which operate during Jan-Mar 2021, but which cease after 27 March. No, these are not ski or winter seasonal routes. The removal of flights seems to be across the network, and not specific to a single country or few airports

Is there a computer failure or some sort of major reworking of schedules going on ? If not, there appears to be a cull of about 15% of all routes across the network effective 27 March 2021

Irish carrier’s chief plans to take seating capacity from distressed competitors
 

davidjohnson6

Integration of Max ?

davidjohnson6

I think no airline can tell you with any degree of certainty what routes they will operate in Summer 2021. IF Covid becomes a part of history through burning itself out and vaccine then there will be lots of routes. However the big Caveat is will people be willing to travel. IMHO the answer is not yet.

Flying somewhere is about confidence as post 9/11 showed in Europe, then it was against a visible threat. now it is an invisible one.

People are influenced by others. So if Kevin and Sharon do a couple of weekend breaks and keep telling friends the message from them and others is flying is OK. Getting the same message from Del and Tracey etc etc then confidence will start to rise as people think "If they can then we can". Knowing someone who has done it an arrived back safe and well is key.

Confidence is fickle, as post 9/11 the AA crash on Long Island almost brought US Aviation into an immediate shutdown.

I do feel many marginal routes where airline only really makes money for 4 months a year but it covers most costs rest of year are under threat in 2021. Until population are back treating travel as before then airlines will chop and change routes all the time.

It is likely that during 2021 that routes will appear and disappear all the time but airlines will be in the driving seat, airports can not afford to be choosy as the local economies they serve will need as many travellers in to sustain jobs as possible.

COVID is much worse as 9/11 for the aviation industry, Yes it is about confidence, but we are now lets say 10 months inn and the rules are changing per country overnight and mostly are getting worse and worse... and with a vaccine that will see enough people vaccinated in about 6-12 months I am afraid we can bin 2021 too... Even if we set all lights on green tomorrow and covid is gone by a miracle.. it will take 3-6 months to get recovery.. so that is between 9 and 18 months from now... sorry..

Been flying for work weekly also this year majority on RYR and during the year the chopping changing and cancelling only got worse and worse, I was surprised that they kept going so long without drastic route cuts as flights have been empty for RYR LF.

H1 2021 is a write off, H2 is a who knows but likely will be ok, not good, not bad but ok. The issue will be for another 5 years is people will be Virus sceptics, the mere hint of one will change airlines markets up and down.

Fear of catching the C-19 virus itself is not the only thing holding back air travel. Most people cannot take the risk of being ordered to self-isolate at short-notice upon their return home (or at intended destination). People are wary following the debacle of the on / off 'travel corridors' and are in no hurry to be caught out by these again. Many lost money on non-refundable items like car hire and accommodation in 2020; they don't want to lose more. Others are put off by the requirement for a covid test taken within 72 hours of departure, often at greater expense than the underlying air fare. For a family that cost can mount up, and the test is only good for one trip. Some jurisdictions aren't allowing overseas nationals in at all yet, and we can't predict when that will change. Other countries have more overbearing restrictions than others: anyone fancy being muzzled-up 24/7 whenever outdoors in a tropical climate? And then there is the admin factor. Few relish another round of interminable phonecalls listening to muzak, unanswered emails and long waits for travel vouchers when flight arrangements have been cancelled yet again. Or - in the case of some Ryanair routes - customers lost their fares as the airline went ahead with flights which the passenger as an individual was banned from using on the grounds of nationality / residency.

My travel for the first half of 2021 will be limited to very late bookings with high confidence of going ahead to destinations which I know will be welcoming, open and not oppressively restricted. And I'll need to know that the destination I'm planning to visit isn't completely shut down too - we've got to be able to do the things we want to do and meet the people we want to meet when away. Avoiding the virus itself is only the start of it.

Set against this there are some positives. People holding travel vouchers will want to deploy them - especially if expiry date becomes an issue - though I think most of Ryanair's revert to a cash refund upon reaching their anniversary anyway. Though voucher redemptions don't represent new income for the airline. Folks who have worked throughout the crisis - in many cases (key workers) doing all the overtime they can bear - have the funds and inclination to treat themselves to a decent break away somewhere. Many of those furloughed have had money coming in and much reduced opportunity to spend. Pensions have been coming in as normal too. So there is pent-up demand to be satisfied once travel reliably opens up again.

When mass-market travel does come back, I would expect Ryanair to be a big winner. Their services can be booked easily at short notice to destinations which have been reliably opened up to visitors. They go to the right places for shorter, high confidence breaks away. And if travel is disrupted again, the funds committed are generally much lower than those for alternative long-haul or high-end trips. Ryanair also has the flexibility to blitz short-haul destinations which do reliably open up for bookings. Familiar 'old favourite' destinations will be in high demand once re-opened.

On the leisure side I think long haul will be the big winner when things become easier. People haven’t been anywhere, like you say lots will have disposable income mounting and I think people will want a big ‘adventure’ as a reward for what they’ve been through. I suspect the ME3 along with the Chinese and others will be dumping low fares like we’ve never seen before.

Ryanair blocks UK investors from buying shares in Brexit move - CityAM

https://flip.it/4hoeOK

AirportPlanner1

Perhaps in 2022, but I think short-haul is where it will be at for S21. Flexibility and ability to make changes at short notice are going to be key to confidence.
To various extent some form of certainty that you will:
1) able to go,
2) not have to quarantine on arrival,
3) get home quickly if things change
4) work remotely if things really go wrong,
5) not have to restrict movements/self-isolate on return
Will play to each individuals confidence. Many long haul destinations do not meet even one of those criteria. Time zones, for example could mean you would be working in the middle of the night in a £500+ a night over water Villa indefinitely. The EU traffic lights and physical proximity make short haul a better bet for a lot of people. I think bookings will trend close to departure, for all of the above. That said, I do agree that some will want to splash out, there are plenty of places around the Mediterranean and Adriatic with the ability to charge like a wounded bull!

Just seen a RYR sales advert on TV - strap line is "Jab & Go!"....

Can't see any long haul getting underway soon.
It's not a question of customer confidence- but Government policies.
Currently flights (as are pax) from the UK are banned to India, Singapore, Philippines, & Hong Kong. Even HKG residents can no longer fly to HKG if they have been in the UK within 14 days. Even then, they need a PCR test before & on arrival - if negative result you are compulsory quarantined in an appointed hotel- at your expense for THREE weeks now.
Thailand is not expected to start any vaccination until May/June.
( As an aside all the M &S chilled food shelves in HKG are empty due to the complete lack of flights between the two countries)
So, only shorthaul is where any up swing will be. Right on Ryanair territory. They are able to act swiftly to demand & are perceived not to be as "clunky" as the Orange rivals in terms of flexibility on scheduling.
I'm not a fan of the outfit, but they always seem to land on their feet with deep pockets to ride out problems. I'm not a fan of their Jab and go adverts either. It is simply something you cannot do. Who are they trying to appeal to at the moment? The over 80s in care homes? I think it's a stupid and baffling ad.

I think you are right - RYanair are almost always ahead of the game - what they're targetting is everyone who has had the vaccine - they'll feel happy to fly - and that's currently 500,000 people a week being added to the lcustomer base

Sure a lot of them are old and in homes but in a month there'll be lot of care workers and over 70's outside homes - several million - desperate for a winter break.........

I would imagine that NHS staff and carers won't be able to get time off for winter holidays just yet. The virus spike at the moment seems to be overtaking the summer one, more pressure on NHS hospitals, less people for holidays.

Passengers would still need to meet both U.K. and European nations travel requirements vaccine or no vaccine in the coming months.

The UK is an European nation,the EU is something very different.

old-art

Ryanair are selling holidays for the post vaccination period - looks like by Easter things my be under control

Who the hell would book a holiday with this mob after this years performance regarding refunds..

Plenty of willing punters who perceive they may be getting a fantastic bargain for their money

A bit wildly over optimistic.
The UK is stretching the gap between Dose 1 & Dose 2 to 12 weeks. So, even if you are in the over 65 group- expect a jab Feb/March - second dose May/June - give it another 3 weeks for full effacy.
We are looking at August / September at the very earliest before any significant impact on leisure travel.
That's without any issues with production or distribution.
The Ryanair" jab & go" adverts completely absurd IMHO. You need two jabs- in the UK a gap of 12 weeks- then wait for effect- so you can't just jab and go can you(?)

And wherever you're going has to accept that you've had the jab, through a process that hasn't been created yet.

And assuming the vaccinations are 100% effective, and stop you carrying/transmitting the virus.

All seems pretty straightforward.

The briefing on TV today said 12 weeks between doses for Astra.
The Moderna isn't available in the uk until "early spring" according to NHS and then only enough for 3.5M
The Pfizer is also stock limited in smallish batches.

The reason for the longer gap between doses is because the evidence shows that the first dose protects against severe illness and so the likelihood of hospital admission. Whether this will satisfy destination countries, who knows.

As for the vaccination of countries like Thailand, most of the world will use the Oxford vaccine because it is a fraction of the cost and easy to distribute.

Aviation was amongst the first industries to be affected by this virus, with closing of international borders. Unfortunately I feel it will also be the last to recover.
Even if we in the U.K. vaccinate quickly and successfully, I can’t see other countries opening up to us until their respective populations have achieved equal inoculation.
U.K. pubs will open, and domestic travel will probably boom this summer, but I just can’t see Spain etc being ready for a summer of (vaccinated) Brits!

Had no problems with them
 

For me they have been good, I use them regular and got the vouchers and spended them, asked for a refund on the familiy holiday (as that was a bigger amount) and got that whitin 3wks so for me not bad, I think any "bad" RYR do is always under a loop... Dont use Ryanair if you are not used to flying and your 60 plus.. but they are fantastic from a buisness point of view and you get what you pay for, a seat, on time, safe and the rest you pay for but that is nowadays with most.. Aer Lingus, Transavia... many Legacy have scrapped the free drink and sambo (that you paid for yourself).. so what is the real difference... a few avios or flying blue points... but they lost the value 5-10 yrs ago..

Above post...

Quote..."Dont use Ryanair if you are not used to flying and your 60 plus"

Please explain!

Ryanair is not the most forgiving of airlines - there are more traps a passenger can fall into, and mistakes by passengers tend to be punished more severely. I've flown with Ryanair over 250 times for leisure, but know that when dealing with the FR website, I need to concentrate fully on what I'm doing and that I need to be hawk-like against being taken advantage of. I know that I will have to argue hard (and possibly revert to use of law) on anything which is a grey area, where other large airlines might be more prepared to accept they were at fault. When things go wrong with Ryanair, resolving them is always painful. Ryanair are the only airline where I've had to raise multiple chargebacks via my credit card on different occasions or make recourse to courts for claims

When I took my dad (in his 70s) on a flight with them I found myself regretting not paying more and giving him the comfort of a legacy carrier

Yes, the fares are cheap, flights delays are few and I still use Ryanair, but I know I'm dealing with a shark and to expect sharp practice from them

Still not quite getting the allusions to RYR firstly with "the 60`s & now over the 70`s" !!

= young people think we're stupid.:ok:

Ryanair appear to be operating a few flights out of the UK this morning. Assuming they are starting here, does anyone know what rules, AOC's approvals they are operating under? All EI aircraft and no sign of the Ryanair UK G-Reg machine.

As long as one end of the flight is in the European Union they're good. They need the G- aircraft for UK domestic.