Can't see how any UK airline will have an ACMI requirement for winter 21/22, and that's before considering IOSA, quality audits etc. Even if they were on sale they wouldn't see much cash until they commence revenue flying due merchant agreements. In any event I suspect the booking profile on a domestic network only kicks in from c. -90 days so plenty of time for an S22 launch. Closing out airport agreements should be the current priority.

Doubt the Dash 8 that was delivered to Exeter would have sported the new Flybe colours if it was going to be used for an ACMI contract.

Wonder if its possbily not the one in EXT but in NRN and could be used on an UK Regional Airline? So the Airline can free up one their planes for an PSO route?

runawayedge

Maybe it's not about making a huge profit initially, or huge ticket sales. What if regular guaranteed flying can also be used to recertify flight crews (thereby not having to do it in empty planes) back onto the line again? Things aren't always as they seem. If ACMI flying and contracts have been worked on behind the scenes ready to go at a given time, a small number of crew, with more filtering in to get current, bodes well for a larger ramp up of operations.

Finally, something we can all agree on!

RogueOne

If you refer back to my post I never mentioned 'huge profits initially or huge ticket sales', unlikely both will ever happen, and I also agreed that there was no urgency to be on sale. My question was which UK airline is going to have an ACMI requirement this winter and secondly if they did would they select a start up airline without IOSA? Maybe the alleged guaranteed flying is a PSO, though I somehow doubt it! Good luck to them if they manage to pull a rabbit from the hat!

I have to say that I don't understand why everyone is getting so worked up (and I also can't actually understand what one post is trying to say).

The only PSO up for grabs is Newquay and that has apparently been awarded to Eastern (and best of luck to both of them with that one) with an announcement imminent.

The wet-lease market is all but dead and if any airline does get itself into major issues with crewing etc, they are far more likely to cancel flights and reduce their schedule in today's weak demand environment to mitigate whatever problem they have before they'll ever opt for a wet-lease.

If as rumoured a February start is in prospect, I'd have thought we will not have long to wait to find out what Flybe 2.0 is planning.

Feb-Apr would be my guess, must be ready to announce the launch soon now CX is in the uk and in the new paint job with other dash being prepared at MST.
Suppose once they announce the launch and routes/times /prices it gives the competition time to respond and counter them with actual flights from an operating airline.

Still this isn’t Cyrus’s first rodeo and they must have a pretty solid plan. I bet they launch with cheap as chips flights so the competing airlines have to swallow a painful price reduction in their offerings.

I would imagine flights will need to start by S22 launch otherwise they will lose slots they hold (at slot constrained airports) unless the waiver is extended.

By "painful price reduction" you mean drop to loss making levels? "Cheap as chips"'isn't an option on a 20 year old 74 seat Q400, it doesn't have the CASM of an A320 which is the reason why no locos operate anything that small. High frequency regional turboprop flying has to survive on it's own fare structure and high volume low pricing isn't an option and low volume, low pricing won't make you any money.
They're going to have to compete on reliability and frequency rather than price IMHO.

Really surprised that there has been no mention of Exeter being a base. I was there on Wednesday and what a sad place it is these days - as far as I could make out there were only two pax flights in and out all day. I know that no airline is a charity (and yes, I have been watching the news the last 20 months) but the southwest seems to be the big missing link in the UK's connectivity drive. No substantial international flights from anywhere west of Bristol (TUI's 737 was sat on the ground all day). The thousands of folks who flew from there every week on Flybe Mk.1 are still there.

It was a major pain having the headquarters, sims etc stuck down there. The cost of shuttling all the regional crews back and forth with nightstop costs was part of the financial problems of Flybe 1.0

Maybe, but if you’re going to run an operation with multiple crew bases, which was the Flybe 1 model, you’re going to have to put your training facility, sims etc somewhere and crews from the other bases are going to have to travel.

I have to admit to be bemused by the current Flybe 2 situation. I know I have previously shouted “slot scam” and it doesn’t obviously appear to be that at the moment but I can’t get my head round why people would currently put money into a UK regional start up where, with the best will in the world, returns will at best be minimal (particularly considering the lost opportunity cost - i.e. what else they could do with the money). I feel I’m missing something.

Wonder if Cyrus will fill the hole in my BRAL pension once they get up and running?:mad:

Would a training / simulator facility somewhere near Birmingham airport have worked better for Flybe v1 ?

As mentioned above, crew still have to travel wherever it is. I've worked for London based operators who put you in a taxi and hotel for a sim near Gatwick airport (a journey of just an hour or so from your base airport) so I'm not sure what cost saving there is having a sim closer to home vs having to position crew on one of your flights.

willy wombat

I'm certainly also intrigued as to what their intentions are and where they feel they can make a profit. I know Cyrus are involved but they simply will not make the returns they did on Virgin America which, in 2015 had a profit margin of 22% versus turnover. In the few years recently where Flybe 1.0 did make profit recently they had about a 1% and 2.7% return. Loganair in 2019 made 0.84% profit on turnover. I just don't see it being some lucrative money pit that Cyrus can flip in a few years. There might be a slim profit to be made with a tightly run ship and well focused brand, but IMO they'll face the same issues as before. If any route is making cash an easyJet or Ryanair will jump in and see them off leaving them in a fight on the likes of Norwich - Exeter with Loganair and already paltry returns being divided even further.

Cavok - you know that, I know that, but do Cyrus know that ? You would be surprised how little industry knowledge there can sometimes be in venture capital investors

Perhaps they are going for the Uber approach. It needs deep pockets and I’m not sure the end goal is worth it but basically offer cheap fares, drive the competition out and then raise your fares once you’re the monopoly.