How much would it cost Ryanair to get their IT systems into a state able to accurately report to customers at the time of booking, the planned aircraft type, and (potentially) also email customers when the planned aircraft type changes ?

How much revenue would Ryanair lose by not spending this money on their IT systems ?

Which of these 2 options is more profitable ? I suspect it would be hard to convince the FR board to spend the money

Ryanair are doing what ever big company does in looking at performance in certain areas and cutting when appropriate. Easyjet do and have done exactly the same thing.

As for "fleet", look at performace in Quarter to June. Easyjet increased pax numbers by 2 Million, Ryanair increased by 4.4 Million, Easyjet load factor dropped by 1.7% year on year to 91.7% where as Ryanair is 96%+.

In the 9 months to June Easyjet added 6.8 million passengers, Ryanair added 10.7 million and is pretty much 50% bigger than Easyjet in number of passengers carried year on year.

Why would they do it ?

See no benefit because by time Max flies again i will be as forecasted next year.

Nice to see Boeing giving an idea of what it cost them, $5 billion is the current estimate so realistically it is likely to be closer to $8.

Think you will find that forward bookings into next year for airlines is 5% or less at this time.

On the two routes we use regularly, we dropped FR in 2016. We got sick of FR not treating their Pax as people, simply as a source of Revenue.
Ok , we are that to ALL airlines but at least our two current choices do it with good grace and a smile on their faces. Oh, and the price penalty didnt turn out to be as bad as we'd expected when ALL costs/extras added together.

Am I correct in saying that both easyJet and Ryanair declare their LF on the basis of seats sold, not on the actual number of PAX who turn up to fly? I've been told that there are people who buy up the £9.99 tickets just in case they need or want to fly to that destination that day.

They have both been following the standard airline reporting since they started.

Which is? Apologies for my ignorance.

Legacy airlines sell a mix of refundable (even after a passenger was due to fly) and non-refundable tickets. The refundable tickets that were not used can sometimes still be refunded several months after the original planned departure date

LCCs tend to sell non-refundable tickets, some of which can be changed before, a flight or maybe a couple of hours after in case of accidental missed departure

Airlines report load factor no more than a couple of months after the month in question. For LCCs, they know a ticket not used more than 2 hours after a flight can never be reused or refunded, and the airline can book this in the accounts as revenue (minus possibly APD that would have gone to Govt anyway). Thus an LCC can choose to report either a 'bums on seats' load factor or a 'seats sold' load factor

Legacy airlines cannot book refundable tickets as revenue in the accounts until the refund period in the ticket fully expires. While they can estimate likely refunds, they cannot be 100% certain and accountancy rules thus prevent them reporting a 'tickets sold' load factor. A legacy carrier can only report a 'bums on seats' load factor

There are always more tickets sold than bums taking their desired seat... so LCCs choose to report the higher and more flattering 'tickets sold' load factor

Load factors from Ryanair and Aer Lingus are not exactly comparable - maybe add 5 percent to the 'bums on seat' load factor to get a 'tickets sold' load factor - but it is still a useful comparison tool

Thanks for that. I thought that APD was only payable on actual fliers?

It is.

Therefore a no show for a LCC carrier is regarded as profit as 99.9% never seek to get back APD back.

Tickets sole where non refundable is perfectly legitimate because LCC do not overbook unlike legacy carriers.

load percentage equates from 1-3 seats depending on a/c model

Wizz Air does overbook. But they also sell Flex option for 10€ where you can change flight for free up to 3 hours before departure.

Never had an overbooking issue with Wizzair and flex options are likely way less than .1 of a % that it doesn't even register. Nice addition to claim you offer it but few use.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49149151

not a live link, 2para

Many thanks

👌 no worries

FR7118 from Strasbourg to Stansted on Sunday 28 July had an aborted take off because of possible bird-strike and returned to stand for assessment and if necessary repair and sign off. Why were engineers were flown in from Milan Bergamo when there is an FR base at Karlsruhe-Baden? Many thanks.

Looks like Mr O'Leary is losing patience with Boeing over the delay in B737MAX (B737-8200) re-certification.

Thanks GJP. I did see the Learjet parked up by our 737-800! And they all did a damn good job. It's so easy to criticize FR and their terms and conditions ... but when it comes to safety and rigorous hull servicing, they are excellent.

Someone needs to tell Mikey that they've alerady dropped these routes with the exception of EDI which is ending shortly.

Bad news video MOL
 

so much for bigger is best, 900 jobs to go?

Looks like FR will give up their last German domestic route SXF-CGN this winter.

With the 900 jobs to go,are the seasonal jobs included in this number.??

Whilst I've no knowledge on the subject, if I were to take a best guess in light of the recent news, I think BFS and maybe BOH are the most at risk of base closure (currently only a single aircraft each and with route networks that can largely be covered by non-based aircraft)- No reason why they cannot continue with a reduced schedule similar to that currently in GLA, NCL or CWL.

Base cuts I think LPL is a potential risk, as is maybe EDI and possibly somewhere like BRS, BHX or LBA.

EMA and PIK I think will be reasonably safe, both are well established/long standing and strategically quite important crew bases especially from a technical/training point of view.

LTN and SEN I think will be quite safe also; the access those aircraft give to "first wave" slots in a congested London market will be extremely valuable and cannot see the logic of letting them go. STN they may have a bit more flexibility to shift towards more non-based flying with vast European network served from there.

MAN too I think is a similar situation and has seen a phenomenal amount of growth over recent seasons.

Of course, lets hope any cuts are a minimalist as possible and best wishes to the pilots, cabin crew and colleagues that frankly do an incredibly important and fantastic job in what is a massively testing time for the aviation business.

Will we be saying bye-bye to SXB ... or simply au revoir after S19?

Aside from the Max challenges and uncertainty, he's admitting this week that there are markets under huge strain, I.e. Frankfurt.

Lufthansa have not taken Ryanair's entry to Frankfurt likely. The message is clear Ryanair will only invest into unprofitable routes for a limited period of time, by which time the incumbent throws in the towel and Ryanair gets all of the business. Lufthansa and easyJet since Carolyn McCall's departure have shown that you play the long game and challenge Ryanair instead of giving up on your market. Frankfurt is an example, as is Belfast in the case of easyJet.

I'm not entirely convinced that Ryanair have the lowest cost base in Europe of the LCCs, I think in unit cost Wizz would be ahead and a few LCCs comparacble.

We see at many UK bases where Ryanair and easyJet battle it out, that easyJet is larger in , flights and based aircraft numbers.... says a lot.

ei-bud

Yesterday Nimes was closed due to forest fire.
 

A tracker aircraft crashed whilst fire bombing killing the pilot.
Daughter and two small children were coached to Montpellier where the Ryanair flight had diverted to.
Excellent service, well organised especially as a black day on french roads..30 mins of traffic delays on the motorways.
Started a thread whichnwas taken down - probably due to a clown criticising my syntax or because I commented that it was far better treatment than my son had at the hands of Big Airlines.

I think MAN to FRA also pulled.

New route (winter route)

Bristol - Turin

1pw (sat)
Begins 14 DEC 2019

I think Ryanair are entering a critical period right now. I know they are very profitable, but they have problems coming in several directions. Many large and very profitable companies have found it very hard, in the past, to keep going in the right direction. Some have failed. I said when FR cancelled a large number of flights due to pilots having to take holidays, that they way they handled that crisis would be very telling for the future. I had a flight cancelled at that time, I had to book new flights that cost me more money. I have had a second flight cancelled now, no consideration from Fr at all. On every flight they cancel, there will be a number of pax, large or small, that will have been caused financial loss. In my case, I was connecting to another flight. Now to make that flight, I have to travel the night before and pay for a hotel room. FR will say, we are a point to point carrier, that is correct. But for many, they are embarking on more than just the Fr flight. It is the last time they will do this on me. So as they keep pissing pax off, there will be those who will vote with their wallets. There will be those who will still use them, if the fare is low enough. And that is part of the FR problem, they have no regard towards the paying pax, the pax have no loyalty towards FR.

A previous poster mentioned Bfs as a base at risk. He is probably correct. Trouble for Fr is, they have a large number of planes on order, they have to put them somewhere, they can't avoid a Bfs for ever, a 6m+ pax airport. If they can't make Bfs work, what does that mean for the many far smaller airports that they might have to put aircraft into? Most of the larger airports have Fr services. And they can't make Fra work!

Another poster mentioned culling not very profitable routes. That puts you on a path of contraction. Fr seem to be closing routes all over the place at the moment. There comes a point when that option is all worn out. They have reduced Bfs - Stn to 2 services a week. Bfs- Man goes the same way at the start of the winter timetable. What use is that to the vast majority of pax? And who thought that 2 a week is a good idea? And what if Wizzair start to take on some of the routes that FR drop? They may be profitable, but not profitable enough for Fr. Wizzair seems to be making good progress, without the bad publicity. They could make enough profit on some of those routes to keep them happy.

For years, Fr treated everyone they came into contact with with contempt. Threats, route closures, base closures you name it. Make a big reduction at Gla, blame it on APD. Expand at Edi, APD not a problem. And press never asked the question, what are you talking about? Now I think Fr have lots of issues, but no goodwill anywhere to get the help they might need. Long runs the fox!

True Blue - I voted with my wallet in 2014 after a particularly noisy flight BHX - DUB where it seemed a lot of Pax (all c20 something single males) were intent on singing and shouting loudly for the duration.
Fortunately its a short flight. FR CC seemed unable to cope.
So, Lingus now get my once a year return trip.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...J3QRHISYkFXOok

Ryanair shifting many aircraft and staff to Malta Air.

Ryanair lay off staff (contract short term) and mothball aircraft every winter- so this laying off staff happens every year- coupled with the shift to Malta Air. Isn't this just the usual smoke and mirrors that they are famous for? Generates news and any news is always good for FR.

From Flight International: