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FRatSTN 13th Nov 2020 09:12

Ryanair UK from 1st Jan 2021
 
Ryanair booking system is being updated with Ryanair UK flight numbers with effect from 1st Jan 2021.

This only applies to a fairly small number of routes from the UK that would otherwise be impacted by Brexit, including UK domestic, Montenegro, Morocco and Ukraine.

From 1st Jan, all flights from the UK to those destinations will operate with "RK" flight numbers and presumably therefore under the ATC callsign "Blue Max".

southside bobby 13th Nov 2020 09:36

Will one a/c G-RUKA be enough to cover the programme ?

commit aviation 13th Nov 2020 11:45

Hardly a complicated job to re-register a few more if necessary. They have moved plenty to Maltese and Polish registrations over the last couple of years.

southside bobby 13th Nov 2020 14:01

It was a genuine question...

G-RUKA was originally registered on 20.12.18 & then sat idle for some months & remains so far the only G dash in service around the network almost certainly to keep the UK AOC valid even though MOL said at one time he would not fly UK domestics at least after the event.

Will automatic cross validation of crews between Europe & UK still exist from Jan 1.




mugam45 18th Nov 2020 21:54

Current January timetable sees three Saturday evening RK rotations (TGD, AGA, RBA) so, from the timetable at least, they will need two more moved to the UK reg

southside bobby 19th Nov 2020 11:07

Interesting then...Thanks for the information.

LTNman 19th Nov 2020 12:17

This from an airline that made Brexit threats.

D9009 19th Nov 2020 15:51


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10930224)
This from an airline that made Brexit threats.


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10926808)
MOL has been consistently wrong footed by the virus despite liking to think he has all the answers


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10926546)
When that happens the likes of Ryanair just hang on to the money and refuse refunds making any booking risky so deceasing the numbers of bookings.


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10921725)
Meanwhile good old Ryanair, which is as predictable as Trump


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10917204)
Ryanair are actually encouraging the public to ignore the English lockdown, which they have never believed in.


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10915792)
Ryanair are suspending services not pulling out. They make threats like they did over Brexit and then they change their mind when no one takes any notice.

Do I detect a little anti Ryanair sentiment?




​​​​​​​

davidjohnson6 20th Nov 2020 16:46

Ryanair to Stockholm Arlanda ?
 
Norwegian are experiencing significant issues, as evident in their requesting examinership (i.e. bankruptcy) in Ireland. It seems that even if they get through their issues, they will likely be a MUCH smaller airline than they were in 2019 - most likely falling back to their core market of Oslo where they had significant market share in 2019
Besides Norway, one of their main country markets was Sweden, with an emphasis on Stockholm Arlanda airport. Following the collapse of NextJet, the minimal existence of BRA and the likelihood that Norwegian will be doing a lot less flying in Sweden in the next couple of years, that leaves a bit of a gap in the Swedish market

Ryanair fly to Skavsta instead of Arlanda (as well as Vasteras until it closes completely in 2022 due to local subsidies ceasing). I know Ryanair cut Skavsta as a base but that was when Norwegian were doing a lot of Swedish flying - post Covid the market dynamics are changed long term. I'm wondering if Arlanda might decide to encourage Ryanair with a deal to move some of their city flying to Arlanda from October 2021 while leaving the beach routes at Skavsta, similiar to what happened with Glasgow/Prestwick, Brussels/Charleroi or Frankfurt/Hahn. If Ryanair decide not to capitalise on Norwegian's misfortunes, I imagine Wizz might be interested. No, I don't see Greta/flygskam killing off Swedish flying long term

Any thoughts on Ryanair turning up at Arlanda some time in 2021 ?

racedo 20th Nov 2020 17:52

I love your optimism but I see 2021 as a write off with passenger traffic at circa 25% of 2019, a possible recovery in last 2021 is possible.

Ryanair will not be worried about anybody jumping on routes, they have a proven ability to deliver pax numbers and will do so when a sense of normality returns.

Bottom line I believe at the moment is to generate enough cash to keep operation going without digging too much into cash pile.

davidjohnson6 20th Nov 2020 18:04

I'm thinking of Ryanair starting ops at Stockholm Arlanda at the end of October 2021 - not before. It's most likely too late by now to persuade Ryanair to turn up at Stockholm Arlanda for the peak of the S21 season

racedo 20th Nov 2020 20:01


Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 (Post 10931152)
I'm thinking of Ryanair starting ops at Stockholm Arlanda at the end of October 2021 - not before. It's most likely too late by now to persuade Ryanair to turn up at Stockholm Arlanda for the peak of the S21 season

I do love your optimism but maybe in that time frame.

I think peak S21 maybe be 5% better than peak S20.

DomyDom 21st Nov 2020 11:51


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10930224)
This from an airline that made Brexit threats.

We still don't know where we are aviation/ travel wise post 2020 with Brexit despite BoJo's 'oven ready' deal. So far the UK has caved in to the EU last minute at every milestone in the negotiations. I think it's odds on the same will happen again over the next few weeks so there is a good chance that FR will not have to deliver on any Brexit threats.

eye2eye5 21st Nov 2020 12:03

That’s an interesting statement. Which milestones has the UK “caved in to the EU at the last minute”?

chaps1954 21st Nov 2020 12:39

Racedo I really cannot agree with your thoughts re 5% growth next year

FRatSTN 21st Nov 2020 13:01

For Summer 21, unless we're bound by similar to current restrictions and quarantine measures, recovery in volumes by the low-cost operators (Ryanair and Wizz predominantly) would likely be pretty swift, in excess of 70% of 2019 levels I don't think would be unrealistic if travel restictions ease. But any growth will be unbalanced and fragmented. The majority of carriers who are more yield rather than volumes driven, especially the full service and business traffic, will take longer as for pricing we're talking more years as opposed to months for a recovery.

Airports are desperate for volumes to return since the bulk of their revenue comes from passenger related, non-aeronautical streams. Gatwick charging 5 for drop-off next year and big increases by MAG in drop-off charges, all this is to allow more competetive pricing to airlines in a bid to win back traffic volumes. Airports in Scandinavia and Germany as examples who generally have expensive handling and operating costs will lose out to those who can offer effecient and cost effective solutions to the likes of Ryanair and Wizz who will drive the volumes recovery. Even those traditionally more expensive, full-service, business travel airports will be unlikely to resist the need to turn to the low-cost carriers to secure and safeguard their business for the future. It truely will be the biggest race to the bottom as far as airports are concerned we've probably ever seen.

eye2eye5 21st Nov 2020 13:44

A well reasoned hypothesis FRatSTN which would tend to explain some current manoeuvrings. Thank you.

racedo 21st Nov 2020 16:07


Originally Posted by chaps1954 (Post 10931560)
Racedo I really cannot agree with your thoughts re 5% growth next year

Thats fine.

I am working on assumption that vaccine will be rolled out and despite the hype will not do as expected. However this takes 2-3 months before people know and then panic and lockdown recurs so killing the S21 summer market.

It is a forecast as have no better information than anybidy else.

Happy to be wrong because so many jobs depend on aviation restarting but expectation is everything gets back to normak with a vaccine, it is not a thread of thought that I share.

eye2eye5 21st Nov 2020 16:32

Racedo, the vaccines have been well tested and their effectiveness is established. The emerging challenge appears to be the reluctance of the general public to be vaccinated. That said, if the high risk groups do indeed step forward to be vaccinated and both hospitalisations and deaths plummet, then I can also see some return to normality in Summer.
Having already had Covid and despite showing high antibody levels at three tests, I will have my hand up to be vaccinated as soon as possible. It’s not a pleasant virus to experience.

commit aviation 21st Nov 2020 17:12

FRatSTN

Noted that MAG are keen to do a deal with Ryanair and I am sure there will be others. However, the aircraft need to operate to somewhere and that somewhere needs to be where the public want to go in reasonable numbers (for instance Spanish holiday resorts.) The interesting bit will be whether the airports that are prepared to offer deals will align and who bends first. I think most Spanish airports are operated by AENA still? If they don't choose to play ball, will Ryanair operate anyway because that is where the British public want to go and be grateful they have a deal at the UK end? Perhaps AENA will do a deal and so Ryanair operate to all UK airports making MAG wish they hadn't been so quick. (assuming the deal is done.)
I think there are a lot of variables at play and first mover might be an advantage but could equally bite some on the backside.
Ultimately lets hope that "aviation wins" and that the process sees passengers back in the sky as soon as the vaccine begins to roll out in reasonable quantities (whenever that might be.)


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