Second that motion
 

Agreed it is time for some sort of backlash as we will end up with no aircraft to fly, due to rising fuel cost.

Passengers asking why the extra charges
GLA - LHR ticket £128.last month this week
GLA - LHR £240 ?

Why dont we start something together at LHR that would hit the most.:*

Why can't the airlines or who represents them get together & TELL the oil traders that they will not buy fuel over a certain price? If all airlines & operators of aircraft did this would that not force the oil majors to peg prices,at least for aviation?

Or is getting aviation to present a united front an impossible dream?

I guess it's always a case of economics - supply & demand, plus geopolitical tensions when it comes to oil.

Something has to be done at some point - we can't have 90% of the airlines that fly people, including oil execs, around the world go to the wall!

I think it is time for interpreter, BYALPHAINDIA and DAVYDAY to wake up. You have no birthright on cheap energy.

If you think you can do better than BP & Esso, just start your own energy company. If you think you have an viable way of extracting oil shales, do it. Better than blaming OPEC, energy company's, China, India, Bush, the entire US, the speculators etc, etc.

Cheap oil
 

SACCADE. You have not read what I said. The oil companies will find a way to provide an economcal energy source for transpotation but to think that oil is close to running out is absurd. At current usage we still have hundreds of years supply. Locally there may be problems. The gulf states are now planning coal fired power stations with South African coal. We have coal reserves of enormous magnitude here in the UK.

Mankind will find a way but - watch this space - oil prices will come down and I hope a lot of speculators burn their fingers.

Don't buy petrol from Esso and BP to hurt them? What a load of bollocks frankly. Where do you think that the supermarkets get their fuel from? To be honest i haven't heard too many reports coming in of oil exploration in the "Tescos" oil field.

interpreter, we are not running out, but we are peaking. Supply is stagnant over the past three years, and the bad news for 2008 is that production from Russia (2nd producer in the world) is now in decline. EIA has estimated that demand is 87,2 mb/d for 2008, and supply is approx 86mb/d. This is the reason for $129 oil, and the Goldman & Sachs prediction of $200 oil.

I don't share your religious confidence in the ingenuity of mankind, but I will definitely be watching this space.

Supply is stagnant because of limitations in refining capacity, not resource. Irans refineries are aging, Nigeria produces less than 20% of it's available output due to local instability, Russia is limited in it's ability to attract outside investment due to Putins unfortunate habit of seizing Western investments and handing them to his mates, whereas Venezuelas president hands them to the state instead. The only thing that will drive the price down is a reduction in the Wests dependency on cheap oil.

It's about time people woke up to the fact that oil is a scarce and valuable resource. Fossil fuels are a one time geological inheritance that our species will never see again once they have been used up.
The fact that certain businessmen have chosen to make use of the material merely as an ingredient in their profit making engines is crass and demonstrates ignorance on a frightening level.
I predict future generations will look back on our epoch and it's energy profligacy, shaking their heads in much the same way as we do now when we think about the slave trade.

Spain for 99 pence (plus taxes)! Get real.

And for those people who think the problem's all down to refining capacity, allow me to introduce my good friend, Mr Ostrich.

Mystery
 

The demand for Oil is increasing wildly, but not because people are burning it.

The Price is twice what it was one year ago.

The value of oil has not gone up appreciably in the last year.

What happened? (Is Happening)?

What is about to happen that will right this mess for most of us?

Who is about to lose a very large investment, and in what?

Do I (You) care.

It's more fun to say it this way.

Airfoil

This is starting to read like a copy of the daily mail.

Boycotting the forecourts of BP and whoever else is going to do sweet FA. Supplying petrol to ego-centric right-wing reactionaries in middle England is a sideline of a highly diversified global business - It's a bit like boycotting the prawn sandwiches in M&S. BP right now has a market capitalisation of £118 billion, are you honestly childish enough to believe that this is a result of shafting you at the pump?

For what it's worth, oil is doing what it's doing because of a few factors.

Currency and Speculation are the two main drivers. The market is delinquent right now, and overblown (think perhaps of the last 10 years of the national obsession: house prices). Like house price rises, it is less to do with hard and fast supply and demand, but more about availability of money and the goal of profit. The delinquency comes from the fact that catalysts for price rises in the price of oil, once removed, seem not to affect the price in the opposite way. They remain in the price. Now, if you were OPEC what's the incentive to flood the market? They can't either, believe it or not, those evil guardians of our birthright can't just open the taps (remembeer Grangemouth) because aside from Saudi, there's not ever so much spare capacity. They're making great money and good for them.

What I do know is that it's better to be able to see beyond the end of ones own nose. It's not the end of the world and neither will it prove to be, once the price has fallen and the dust has settled, you'll have forgotten it. As you've already forgotten the huge gains in the price of domestic property over the last decade and are now overeacting towards current trends. As Grangemouth was going to throttle Scotland and northern England.

Finally, there is lots and lots and lots and lots or oil left. Lots. As we go forward it'll get harder and more costly to extract - because it will be deeper (Tupi or Namibia) more distant (potentially the Falklands) and heavier (our own backyard). I'll happily take bets from anyone at whatever price that nobody here is going to outlive internal combustion.

Indeed, no foreseeable shortage of oil. Problem is twofold : a) upstream, shortage of production capacity and/or unwillingness of existing producers to produce more, and b) downstream, shortage of distribution/pipeline systems to meet current demand and also refining capacity.

The US will sell oil from Iraq
 

Iraq could have largest oil reserves in the world
Sonia Verma in Sharm el-Sheikh, The Times

Iraq dramatically increased the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested that they could exceed Saudi Arabia’s and be the largest in the world. The Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister told The Times that new exploration showed that his country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with as much as 350 billion barrels. The figure is triple the country’s present proven reserves and exceeds that of Saudi Arabia’s estimated 264 billion barrels of oil. Barham Salih said that the new estimate had been based on recent geological surveys and seismic data compiled by "reputable, international oil companies . . . This is a serious figure from credible sources."...
continua / continued avanti - next [44184] [ 20-may-2008 08:02 ECT ]

Red Herrings
 

Reserve estimates are just that...estimates. There is a decades long history of over or under estimating oil reserves for political or economic advantage. The doubling or tripiling of reserve estimates has been done before. Saudi Arabia is a classic example.

Besides it's not really a reserve issue, it's an extraction and refinement issue. Peak oil refers not only to reserve estimates, but to production results and available supply into the marketplace.

Good luck to us all.

I am not BA and haven't read all the posts, so forgive me if this has been mentioned previously.

What will WW do with the surplus crews that will be standing around on full pay etc.? I cant see him paying out for too long before he starts looking for "volunteers" to depart.

This maybe good timing on BA's part and a shot across the bowes of BALPA. More or less saying if you go on strike we wont have to look for volunteers to take early retirement. Yes early retirement. Just because one is ex BA will not mean that most will be snapped up by another airline. The "glory days" are over for a few more decades now. In fact if you think about it, WW's timing maybe be spot on, as far as BA are concerned, come October there will probably be a large surplus of experienced pilots on all types flooding the market. So he may do the 2 together, save money by parking up a/c and the early retirement volunteers handed to him on a plate, if the strike goes ahead. Mind you I guess he would have no hesitation getting the axe out should he need to.

I am sure it wont only be BA parking a/c in the desert either, as oil will hit $200/barrel, within a year is my guess.

Just a thought.

Reading an article in the HR section of a newspaper stating the hiring of oil-industry professionals is becoming more challenging now as the technical skills are highly demanding due to the increasing difficulty in finding and digging out that precious liquid, I started thinking this is the beginning of the end of our system as we know it.

Let me explain : if oil-producing firms hardly find anyone skilled enough to pump out petrol, WHATEVER THE SALARY(!!!), this should mean this petrol IS getting extremely scarce. The number highly-qualified engineers ready to put tons of cash in their pocket should be sufficient. In fact, it is not because this task has become so complicated if not nearly impossible.

And when I link this information to the fact countries like Saudi Arabia tend to blow their figures on remaining stocks a little bit, I believe it is high time I started thinking about a future reconversion and change in life-style.

Now, who in this room is surprised with this outcome ? Everybody knows it won't last another century and our lives will change more than dramatically. And in a way, isn't it time we stopped that whole messy dependance on oil ? Look where it's taking us to : wars and pollution. We can make it a chance for an environmental revolution or it can kill our societies.

Look where it's taking us to : wars and pollution

Isn't that where it will initially take us?
Countries scrabbling for remaining "cheap" oil.
:sad:

plastic

Yes, the old "don't buy from BP" e-mail...what a crock of x.

The fact is that retail petrol operations are very far removed from the oil exploration businesses of any of the oil majors. Oil flows from the majors into refineries (often not owned by the majors), which is then distributed to the petrol stations by other companies.

The petrol stations themselves are largely franchised these days, so the only person you are hurting is the hard-working Mr Patel who owns the place.

Back to the topic...

Deserted forcourts
 

Whilst I believe a boycott won't work for practical reasons i.e company cars = company fuel allowances, it nonetheless focusses the 'little guy' on something. The fuel protests of 2001 only achieved a partial success due to the lorry drivers picketing oil installations. Since then fuel has tripled and we stand by, apparently helpless. Don't know about you, but I was lead to believe, the UK government takes around 85% in duties and tax so diesel at 120/lt is a pound for Golden Brown. :ugh:

Why are Emirates/Etihad/Qatar buying aircraft like gifts at a pound shop? There won't be a emirati green tax. Their access to heavy oil (processed to make kerosene) ensures that derivatives are about 10p a Gallon - retail !! Level playing field - not !!

If BA decide to do this, we'll just be flying in different colour aircraft in the future.:eek:

If BA do park aircraft, and some of them are LHR based, presumably they could glean some revenue from leasing out the slots or even wet lease aircraft and slots combos to other operators (Maybe they could flog a 75 and LHR slots to the good folks in the Shannon region!)

Dose LHR operate a "Use 'em or Lose 'em" policy on slots, if so, how many do you need to miss before they get taken away from you?

JAS

Its quite amazing how this thread about the proposed grounding of BA aircraft due to a fuel crisis has virtually degenerated virtually into a discussion about the oil company's, pricing, global resources and extraction technologies. Absolutely great for the National Geographic Channel but really out on a total tangent to the real purpose of this thread.:sad:
The first valid & specifically relevant point that has actually been raised seems to me to be that by Just a spotter who has raised the once very topical issue of slots at LHR, in that if BA aren't going to use them then how are they to protect them, based on smaller fleet presumably means less flights or can additional utilisation of remaining fleet cover for those aircraft laid up?
In addition then are these 'mothballed' aircraft going to remain at LHR, be dispersed at other UK sites, or indeed sent to Arizona? If the latter then does one really expect to realistically see them all return to BA service?

British Airways buys two Airbus A318s for London City Airport services "Confirmed!"
 

British Airways has signed a firm contract with Airbus for two Airbus A318 aircraft to launch services between London City Airport, in central London, and New York. The A318 is the most modern and largest aircraft certified by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for the steep approach procedures which are required at London City.


http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...ways_a318.html

Possible Routings:

EGLC-EGPF-KJFK
KJFK-EGLC
Or EGLC-EINN-KJFK.



Intresting buy.

A bit like Hooters'; ' "Tacky yet completely unrefined"

This is interesting, yet completely insignificant!

A disaster in progress!

Not literally I hope

No, it's not literally in progress yet. :)

How much time will the extra stop add to the westbound flight?

Will there really be any significant advantage over 'conventional' longhaul - apart from avoiding the misery of Heathrow, that is?

I can't see it having much appeal, to be honest.

Short trip from the City to LCY - time saving ***
Expedited check-in - time saving **
Preclearance US Immigration at the Shannon stop - time saving ******

This is possibly the worst timing imagineable.

Oil prices and record high and climbing....

Credit crunch means financial institutions and business travel in general set to shrink.....

And don't even start on the green issues......

I'll put money on that it will never even start. They will be used on shorthaul in normal config.

Call me a pessimist but.....

Inspired thinking
 

To operate Longhaul (with tech. stop) from LCY is an inspired idea. LHR has to be one of the most dreadful airports in Europe - because of its popularity and the lack of investment in passenger facilities and infrastructure (I'm not talking damn shops either). So to launch a service from a London airport where passengers can get from its front doors to the aircraft in 15 minutes has to represent a giant step forwards in passenger service. So what if it has to tech. stop - you are still ahead of the crowd after you have taken off following refuelling. Those at LHR will be doing battle with my "friends", the goons "doing security" at LHR. They'll still have to battle their way past thousands of people to get to their gate to find their aircraft is delayed.

PM

Not the most timely start up for a new service. I am sure it will be great for staff travel when the numbers expected are not achieved. If there is very limited space at LCY for parking will the a/c at times then move to SEN. Are there other companies about to start up from LCY with longhaul intentions. As LCY are also bidders for purchase of SEN there bid might make sense if there are to be more longer routes served because presently I fail to see why LCY would want to purchase another airport so close which also is very limited in what it can operate.

I suspect BA are talking up plans for their service to stop anyone else doing it. It may also have seal the long term chances of EOS. BA needs to make sure that any threat to its most profitable routes is killed off. I think its about 50-50 that the flights will happen. As long as no one else is doing it then BA does not need to either.

Would be quicker to swim to New York than go on a A318 :}

It makes huge business sense for City Types who believe their time is money.

32 searter A318 parked down in LCY, proposal I believe is check in closes 30 mins before take off. Hop to Shannon to re-fuel for TA and do US boarder controls (and soon customers) clearance, pop to JFK, swan through the crowds and into your waiting taxi/limo.

Compare that to fight your way from the Canary Warf/City to Heathrow. Check in 2 hours prior to take off, queue through LHR security, sit in the lounge, queue onto Aircraft, taxi to runway, queue for take off and then to JFK. Queue for passport control and then queue for customs.


I suspect time from London desk to kerb side in JFK with the new LCY/A318 service will be shorter than traditional services.

Sounds like a brilliant bit of lateral thinking to me.


JAS

Having once worked in business travel I can see this being a major success
as the people who will use this will be the top bosses and bank officials who want to save as many hours by leaving the office and being at the airport yesterday and not getting stuck in mega traffic jams on the way the LHR
and going through endless delays at security, check in and boarding.
They are already corportate high rollers who will have already been sounded out by BA probably years ago and their needs and wishes well known by BA marketing and corporate sales

Ian

Is there really a best time to launch long haul from LCY when offering a business product?

The bankers and investors based in the city really wouldn't know if there was a difference of a couple of pounds onto their ticket. They earn so much they would probably pay for the service due to:

1. Distance to the city
2. Can carry on using their BA frequent flyer programme
3. Avoid LHR, LGW and STN
4. Fly from one of the best airports in the country - and even if you don't like it you will only have to be there for 15 minutes!
5. Avoid US customs in the states, especially at JFK where it is terrible whatever class you fly in.
6. Fly on the eqivalent of a private a/c

BA have to fill less than fourty seats each way twice daily - pretty easy really, and they can pretty much charge what they like.

Agree this is a good move by BA. I can see it being popular with City folks and profitable regardless of the oil prices.

Only slight concern is the tendency for LCY to be closed by fog pretty frequently during autumn / winter. I hope when that happens BA communicate with their customers better and handle the resulting cancellations / transfers to SEN a little more effectively than their counterparts at Cityflier have been known to do ;).

13Alpha

"Not the most timely start up for a new service".

This is exactly the time to start being creative, and frankly it's quite surprising that BA have opened their eyes to alternatives like this.

Small capacity, high yield, convenient, route protecting... and escaping LHR which is such a thoroughly miserable experience as a passenger...

Good luck to them :ok:

I know this a thread that has a view from Europe, but just think of the appeal from NYC! Non-stop from NYC to the City of London. Check in with a small crowd and easily be at the Bank of England 45 mins after landing at LCY. Magic!

And then leave Bank station one hour before the departure for NYC and be sure of getting the flight. Drink chamagne during the Tech Stop rather than queing in security at LHR - once you'v got there!

Goldmine.

Imagine the shock horror when the executives find themselves diverted to SEN. They might be forgiven for thinking that that they have gone back in time like the TV programme 'Life on Mars'. Every cloud has a silver lining but I still can,t see why LCY wants to but SEN. Please explain

PS; Like open skies will the 318 have retro fitted large windows.

Those flights from the City will be full - whether or not it means more empty seats on BA LHR services is another matter. I work with many frequent US travellers and for us its really good news.

Door to door with the wind is expected to chop the journey time by 3 hours, maybe half that the other way - and avoiding LHR - priceless.

A thorn in the side for Silverjet or not ?????????