great thanks

September figures out today,+1.8%.Thats 3 months in a row of positive growth,albeit small figures. Have we finally turned the corner?:DDub-3.3% ,Snn-0.3%

Hopefully we have turned the corner although the fact that Dublin has gone back into decline is not good. I still think the route mix from Cork isn't as good as it could be.

Very good news.

Taking the average of the first 9 months the decline rate in pax is -2.774%.

Total pax Jan-Sep 2011 (9months) is 1,869,507.

Given the decline from 08-09: -15%, 09-10: -12% and ytd 10-11: -2.774% then there is clear data showing an improvement.

I feel that taking the avg% growth of Aug/Sep 2011 and applying this to the period Oct-Dec 2011 gives us a very good measure of where we'll be in total pax 2011. This would give a figure for 2011 of: 2,384,661 (2010: 2,425,131) Decline -1.6971%.

A decline yes but a vast improvement in % terms compared to the previous two years.

Aer Lingus Summer 2012
 

Main changes:
TFS dropped from late April - to late September (one weekly last summer)
LPA same as TFS (never planned to operate fo summer)
FAO increases to 6 weekly (5 this summer)
PMI drops to 2 weekly

Sure EI have further changes to make but the above were made in the last 2 weeks.

With SNN-CDG and TFS droped there should be room for a new route but havn't looked at the schedule in detail.

LGW kept even though EI reducing the base. 15.05 departure from LGW and 17.10 departure from ORK

I expect the timings on this will be changed, as this pattern implies an LGW crew, or a W from DUB. Glad to see LGW is still being maintained.

The LGW base is going to be 1 aircraft for summer 2012. Was 3 for summer 2011. The aircraft does LGW-DUB-LGW-NOC-LGW-ORK-LGW-DUB-LGW daily. It was updated today. Only thing keeping it open is the early morning flight to DUB which does qiuiet well.

Aer Lingus Cork Base Schedule; Summer 2012 (25/03/12 -> 27/10/12)
 

A/C 1 - A320:

EI710 DEP ORK 07:15 ARR LHR 08:45 MTWTFSS
EI711 DEP LHR 09:30 ARR ORK 10:50 MTWTFSS

EI712 DEP ORK 11:45 ARR LHR 13:05 MTWTFSS
EI715 DEP LHR 14:00 ARR ORK 15:20 MTWTFSS

EI722 DEP ORK 16:00 ARR LHR 17:20 MTWTFSS
EI723 DEP LHR 18:15 ARR ORK 19:35 MTWTFSS

EI724 DEP ORK 20:15 ARR LHR 21:35 MTWTFSS
EI725 DEP LHR 22:15 ARR ORK 23:30 MTWTFSS

A/C 2 - A320:

EI840 DEP ORK 06:00 ARR AMS 08:45 MTWTFSS
EI841 DEP AMS 09:25 ARR ORK 10:10 MTWTFSS

EIXXX DEP ORK XX:XX ARR XXX XX:XX M-W-F--
EIXXX DEP XXX XX:XX ARR ORK XX:XX M-W-F--

EI836 DEP ORK 10:50 ARR MUC 14:10 -T-T-S-
EI837 DEP MUC 14:50 ARR ORK 16:30 -T-T-S-

EI868 DEP ORK 11:00 ARR BCN 14:15 ------S
EI869 DEP BCN 14:55 ARR ORK 16:25 ------S

EI844 DEP ORK 17:10 ARR AMS 19:55 MTWTFSS
EI845 DEP AMS 20:40 ARR ORK 21:25 MTWTFSS

A/C 3 - A320:

EI896 DEP ORK 06:40 ARR FAO 09:10 MTWT-SS
EI897 DEP FAO 09:50 ARR ORK 12:20 MTWT-SS

EI890 DEP ORK 06:40 ARR LIS 09:00 ----F--
EI891 DEP LIS 09:40 ARR ORK 12:00 ----F--

EI822 DEP ORK 13:00 ARR CDG 15:40 MTWTFSS
EI823 DEP CDG 16:20 ARR ORK 17:05 MTWTFSS

EI890 DEP ORK 17:50 ARR LIS 20:10 M------
EI891 DEP LIS 20:50 ARR ORK 23:10 M------

EI868 DEP ORK 17:50 ARR BCN 21:05 --W-F--
EI869 DEP BCN 21:45 ARR ORK 23:15 --W-F--

EI856 DEP ORK 17:50 ARR ALC 21:30 ---T--S
EI857 DEP ALC 22:10 ARR ORK 23:50 ---T--S

EI824 DEP ORK 18:00 ARR NCE 21:20 -T---S-
EI825 DEP NCE 22:10 ARR ORK 23:45 -T---S-

A/C 4 - A320:

EI882 DEP ORK 07:00 ARR AGP 10:45 MTWTFSS
EI883 DEP AGP 11:30 ARR ORK 13:30 MTWTFSS

EI876 DEP ORK 14:10 ARR ACE 18:05 -T-T-S-
EI877 DEP ACE 19:05 ARR ORK 23:00 -T-T-S-

EI874 DEP ORK 14:15 ARR TFS 18:30 --W---- *
EI875 DEP TFS 19:30 ARR ORK 23:40 --W---- *

EI872 DEP ORK 14:15 ARR LPA 18:25 ------S **
EI873 DEP LPA 19:25 ARR ORK 23:30 ------S **

EI860 DEP ORK 14:50 ARR PMI 18:20 --W---S ***
EI861 DEP PMI 19:00 ARR ORK 20:45 --W---S ***

EI802 DEP ORK 15:45 ARR FCO 19:40 M---F--
EI803 DEP FCO 20:30 ARR ORK 22:50 M---F--

NON-BASED - A320:

EI815 DEP LGW 15:05 ARR ORK 16:30 MTWTFSS
EI814 DEP ORK 17:10 ARR LGW 18:30 MTWTFSS

Routes Summary:

Amsterdam increased from 13PW to 14PW.
Faro increased from 5PW to 6PW.
Palma Majorca decreased from 3PW to 2PW.
Gran Canaria, Tenerife become Winter Sun routes. (Replaced with PMI for Summer Sun)

Notes:

*OPX 28/03/12 -> 25/04/12, OPX 03/10/12 -> 24/10/12
**OPX 25/03/12 -> 29/04/12, OPX 07/10/12 -> 21/10/12
***OPX 02/05/12 -> 30/09/12

Time Changes for EI822, EI823, EI840, EI841 are estimates (minor changes) as EI will change them shortly.

New Route Possibilities for A/C 2 M-W-F-- slot:

Resumption of a previous route (Berlin, Madrid, Prague)
New Service (Brussels, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Zürich)

or maybe a continuance of the Geneva route into summer 2012?

Highly doubt that, it operates once weekly from late December until late March as a W route from Dublin (DUB-GVA-ORK-GVA-DUB). Its target market is Winter Ski. :ok:

I'd rule out Brussels due to its proximity to Schiphol. Let's hope it's not another bucket and spade route.

Any truth in the story MON may be baseing planes at cork next year?

I doubt unless they're about to start schedulec routes which seems unlikely.

Monarch are basing one A/C operating flights to Faro, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, Malaga, Palma and Reus. All flights are charter not scheduled (i think), there replacing Iberworld/Orbest. Just out of curiosity Ryan2000 your're around longer then me no offence intended, if i heard rightly i understand Aer Lingus previously operated Frankfurt? cant understand how it was dropped.

Jack1985, Frankfurt was operated as a one stop on a 735 via Dublin, this was when Aer Lingus had a high frequency on Dublin/Cork with a mix of props and jets!!

A direct-nonstop flight may have operated pre 1987 (that's as long as I can recall) but not since then!

EI-BUD

The EI ORK FRA never operated directly. In fact PAC frequently had to change planes in Dublin particularly on the inbound flight. Surprised to hear thst OM are replacing IWD as the cost of using U.K. airlines was seen as prohibitive.

Suprised myself given that they've closed there DUB base and replaced it with a Cork one :D Hopefully as you've said Ryan and many Cork tourism officials and airport staff included have said we will actually get a route which will bring tourists in not bring irish pax to the beaches :ugh:i wonder what Summer 2012 holds for FR all the seasonal routes removed from the booking engine except Faro and Gran Canaria which are bookable for next summer, although i do remember them releasing this summer's schedule in January last year! hopefully there will be positive FR developments and not just the return of the ''bucket and spade'' routes for once! I'd love to see Aer Lingus announce FRA as the new route or the return of Berlin for that matter alot of Germans would use the route as would Cork nationals in the Rhine.

Aer Lingus A/C 2: MWF gap
 

Great analysis Jack 1985!
If Aer Lingus were to follow the results of the August 11th poll on Cork Airport's Facebook page it would be Brussels, but personally my money is on Berlin or Madrid...

Cork Airport - Airport - Cork, Ireland | Facebook

1. Brussels 77 (+ Antwerp 9 + Luxembourg 5 + Düsseldorf 5 + Cologne 3)
2. Madrid 26
3. Berlin 23
4. Prague 21
5. New York 20
6. London City 10
7. Geneva 9
8. Antwerp 9
9. Krakow 8
10. Budapest 6

Perhaps Aer Lingus Regional should try out the Brussels route as it's within range for the ATR. Would be great if they based an extra ATR in Cork and fly to Dublin, Brussels and perhaps one of the unserved London airports, either London City, Luton or Southend.
Aer Lingus could then use their open slot in the summer schedule for a longer route to Geneva, Madrid or Berlin.

CCR your views above are slightly over optimistic to say the least. I dont see Aer Lingus Regional doing European routes other then France from Cork or entering the London market even though London City is ATR certified and a viable option for them, i could see DUB being re-launched by them to tie into the Aer Lingus Transatlantic operation. Geneva will not be announced Aer Lingus have stated its a Winter Ski route and are selling it in co-op with Topflight which is an Irish Winter Ski (Primary Business) travel group aswell as Italian Summer Sun.