Flybe-V1

[Albert Hall]

I haven't heard anything more about an announcement timeline but it obviously now isn't today!

I did get sent a list of routes based on their slots at BHX and MAN though, just trying to find out if it's OK to post it.

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by Albert Hall

I haven't heard anything more about an announcement timeline but it obviously now isn't today!

I did get sent a list of routes based on their slots at BHX and MAN though, just trying to find out if it's OK to post it.

FR24 was showing 4 local sorties (BHX-BHX) for this morning none of which seems to have happened. Perhaps press demo flights?

These are different from the normal pattern of training flights which operate e.g BHX-LPL-CWL-BHX. Today's non-ops all had BEExxT flight numbers.

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by ATNotts

FR24 was showing 4 local sorties (BHX-BHX) for this morning none of which seems to have happened. Perhaps press demo flights?

These are different from the normal pattern of training flights which operate e.g BHX-LPL-CWL-BHX. Today's non-ops all had BEExxT flight numbers.

A number of circuits flown at BHX this morning.

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

A number of circuits flown at BHX this morning.

That will teach me for taking FR24 at face value!

[OltonPete]

DH8D

Originally Posted by ATNotts

That will teach me for taking FR24 at face value!

There were 6 flights lists showing last night with callsigns BEE21T to 26T and I thought the same whether it was going to be PR related.

In the end all six actually operated but 5 without a callsign on FR24, which I think confused it and it certainly did on one of the local arrivals site which only showed the one operating with the flight number and still does.

In the meantime nothing bookable on the EI website for BHD - BHX, MAN etc from the end of March. BHX - BHD is offered at the end of March on Loganair and BA - I jest not BHX-ABZ-LHR-BHD

Pete

[davidjohnson6]

Having a bit of a bleak thought... are Flybe definitely going to launch ? One of the first lessons in finance is not to get emotionally involved and ignore what's already been spent. When appraising a project, ignore what's already happened as it can't be changed; think only of what cash needs to be committed in the future, and what return you expect on that yet-to-be-committed cash. If you expect a project to be a loss maker, it may be better just not to start the project at all and hand money back to lenders and investors... aka cut your losses instead of sinking further. A hedge fund will likely be very much aware of this concept

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

Having a bit of a bleak thought... are Flybe definitely going to launch ? One of the first lessons in finance is not to get emotionally involved and ignore what's already been spent. When appraising a project, ignore what's already happened as it can't be changed; think only of what cash needs to be committed in the future, and what return you expect on that yet-to-be-committed cash. If you expect a project to be a loss maker, it may be better just not to start the project at all and hand money back to lenders and investors... aka cut your losses instead of sinking further. A hedge fund will likely be very much aware of this concept

It looks very much to me as though the launch has been delayed probably due to uncertainties around the war situation, fuel prices, and the effects on the domestic and European economy. As you quite rightly say, if venture capitalists and hedge funds can't see a return on their investments they will cut and run.

Hope for the sake of all those who have taken up employment with them that we're wrong.

[bean]

Why oh why oh why does this daily nonsense have to continue. None of you know what's happening. For christs sake stop speculating and WAIT

[cavokblues]

Originally Posted by bean

Why oh why oh why does this daily nonsense have to continue. None of you know what's happening. For christs sake stop speculating and WAIT

It's a rumour network for goodness sake. If you don't like speculation and rumour then I think you might need to browse a different forum.

[RogueOne]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

..are Flybe definitely going to launch ?

Yes. Just have some patience.

[Alteagod]

Guys guys guys keep your hair on. This is a RUMOUR network. Its not the gospel word of god. Its a talking shop for ideas, thoughts, notions, rumours and ruminating. What will be will be with Flybe.

[Local Variation]

Originally Posted by Alteagod

Guys guys guys keep your hair on. This is a RUMOUR network. Its not the gospel word of god. Its a talking shop for ideas, thoughts, notions, rumours and ruminating. What will be will be with Flybe.

Think the recent points being made are that the rumours and speculation in here have an underlying negative repetitive theme to them.

[jethro15]

Post No 1342...................This thread is now akin to airline passengers who, when given the reason for the delay to their flight, proceed to tell friends, family and media that they were never given any information. What they actually mean is ‘I was not told what I wanted to hear!’

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by Local Variation

Think the recent points being made are that the rumours and speculation in here have an underlying negative repetitive theme to them.

Nature abhors a vacuum...

All the previous press releases talk of a launch in early 2022, so when nothing has been heard from BE by the start of March, hardly surprising that there is comment/speculation

Flybe will serve key regions across the UK and EU with operations scheduled to begin in early 2022.

Press Release - Flybe announces new Birmingham Headquarters and First Crew Base

[Albert Hall]

The update I was given based on the slot information is below. I guess the start date plus any of the stuff below could easily change. On top of the health warning that this can and probably will change, this only covers flying at slot constrained UK airports so omits plans to fly between airports that aren't slot restricted. So if BHD-LPL, BHD-CWL etc etc are in the plan, they won't be listed here.

Birmingham-Paris CDG 1 x daily from 31 March (covering a W pattern also)

Birmingham-Belfast City 3 x daily from 31 March

Birmingham-Edinburgh 2 x daily from 28 July, increasing to 3 x daily from 18 August and to 4 x daily from 15 September

Birmingham-Glasgow 2 x daily from 28 July, increasing to 3 x daily from 18 August

Birmingham-Isle of Man 1 x daily from 18 August

Birmingham-Jersey 1 x weekly (Saturday) from 9 July to 17 September

Manchester-Belfast City 2 x daily from 7 July, increasing to 3 x daily from 28 July and 4 x daily from 25 August

Manchester-Southampton 2 x daily from 21 July

[adfly]

Originally Posted by Albert Hall

The update I was given based on the slot information is below. I guess the start date plus any of the stuff below could easily change. On top of the health warning that this can and probably will change, this only covers flying at slot constrained UK airports so omits plans to fly between airports that aren't slot restricted. So if BHD-LPL, BHD-CWL etc etc are in the plan, they won't be listed here.

Birmingham-Paris CDG 1 x daily from 31 March (covering a W pattern also)

Birmingham-Belfast City 3 x daily from 31 March - Emerald (details tbc) + easyJet to BFS

Birmingham-Edinburgh 2 x daily from 28 July, increasing to 3 x daily from 18 August and to 4 x daily from 15 September - easyJet

Birmingham-Glasgow 2 x daily from 28 July, increasing to 3 x daily from 18 August - easyJet

Birmingham-Isle of Man 1 x daily from 18 August - Loganair

Birmingham-Jersey 1 x weekly (Saturday) from 9 July to 17 September - Blue Islands and Jet2

Manchester-Belfast City 2 x daily from 7 July, increasing to 3 x daily from 28 July and 4 x daily from 25 August - Emerald (details tbc) + easyJet to BFS

Manchester-Southampton 2 x daily from 21 July - Eastern

I'd hedge bets on the CDG w-pattern being CDG-SOU. It is the busiest ex. Flybe route still unserved from Southampton.

Also, as per my bold comments in the quote, that's a lot of competition straight from the off...

[jethro15]

There are far more qualified folk on this forum than I to work this out, but can the schedule provided by 'Albert Hall' be covered by the following?

G-JEJX Currently undertaking training flights
G-JECY Currently at EXT (Since 07 Jan on mx before being registered 10 Feb - Not flown since)
G-JECP Currently at Wheeze since 15 Jun 20. Now in new Flybe Livery (Not yet registered)

[Albert Hall]

I also thought it was more than likely to be CDG-SOU but didn't have any basis beyond my thoughts on which to suggest it. And yes this does seem to be picking a fight in almost every possible direction.

Apparently they've been rather crass in managing their slots by trying to disguise what they're up to but using the old Flybe flight numbers for each new route which then makes their plans pretty obvious. If they wanted secrecy then that's a schoolboy error.

[JobsaGoodun]

Given the slot waivers that have been in place due to COVID, couldn’t they just be holding their historic slots in the same way as they have since the Administration?

It wouldn’t surprise me if they’re playing around to keep us all guessing.

[davidjohnson6]

Originally Posted by JobsaGoodun

It wouldn’t surprise me if they’re playing around to keep us all guessing.

Albert Hall's inferred route/schedule looks plausible - but there are plenty of other people reading this who are more expert than me
It's realtively easy to fake some minor detail in a system, but those who try to disguise things heavily by putting very false information in record systems usually have a hard time both covering their tracks *and* making their tracks look plausible.
In other words, you can sometimes get away with one fib, but lying repeatedly in a credible way is difficult
When large amounts of fake info appear, there is usually something which doesn't pass a smell test and people start asking questions
There are more than enough people on this website and the Internet who will cast their eye over public airline info for a large set of porkies to remain hidden for long