Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
Early data coming out of Israel suggests that the vaccines also prevent infection as well as symptoms which is very positive.
The purpose of the vaccine was to always prevent severe disease, not infection as well. The vaccines that have already been approved show that there is not just a high degree of efficacy but a 100% rate of non-hospitalisation.
I fear for countries (Aus / NZ / HK) who have got themselves into a position where there is a "1 case and you're out" mentality, as that is simply not going to be sustainable unless they want to be North Korea for the next 5 years. I too think quarantines, even with vaccines will be mandatory for a very long time. It feels like it's becoming more of a political than scientific thing.
The purpose of the vaccine was to always prevent severe disease, not infection as well. The vaccines that have already been approved show that there is not just a high degree of efficacy but a 100% rate of non-hospitalisation.
I fear for countries (Aus / NZ / HK) who have got themselves into a position where there is a "1 case and you're out" mentality, as that is simply not going to be sustainable unless they want to be North Korea for the next 5 years. I too think quarantines, even with vaccines will be mandatory for a very long time. It feels like it's becoming more of a political than scientific thing.
France is starting a 6pm Curfew - anyone found outside after that time will be fined.
All of France has been under a nighttime curfew for a few weeks now.
In the high incidence areas (generally the east of France) it has run from 6pm to 6am. For the rest of France it's been 8pm to 6am.
Yesterday's announcement puts everybody on 6 to 6 (plus lots of other things regarding Borders, schools etc)
FWIW if you believe the testing results over the last week or two the "taux incidence" has plateaued at about 6.5% but the authorities are v concerned about the various "foreign"
variants getting a grip and the rates escalating.
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ara01jbb
I think this is right for now because we don’t know any different and should assume the worst. However, most vaccines usually reduce transmission levels too, and in some cases stop, so there is hope that something similar will be the case here. This would be great news if it happened, but too early to tell for now.
I think this is right for now because we don’t know any different and should assume the worst. However, most vaccines usually reduce transmission levels too, and in some cases stop, so there is hope that something similar will be the case here. This would be great news if it happened, but too early to tell for now.
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Air travel and Covid 19
As I have indicated earlier a relative has flown out to Australia to join his ship but has to isolate for a fortnight in a hotel room for a fortnight paid for by I presume his Company not the Australian Taxpayer, his food is brought up on a tray with a knock on the door to indicate it is there, can any of our Australian members tell me what this concoction is which he was given as part of his Breakfast.
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It seems to me that the U.K. handled this pandemic in 2020 like a dummy run. Now we have finally learnt our lesson from successful regions such as SE Asia and Australasia and are implementing policies such as
1) stricter enforcement of social distancing non-compliance
2) stricter enforcement of mask wearing
3) and unfortunately for us....the closing of international borders!
We have been far too lax in all of these areas so far.
Now herd immunity is our only way out. Even if we are all vaccinated by spring, I can’t see any countries opening up to us until they also have equal immunity.
1) stricter enforcement of social distancing non-compliance
2) stricter enforcement of mask wearing
3) and unfortunately for us....the closing of international borders!
We have been far too lax in all of these areas so far.
Now herd immunity is our only way out. Even if we are all vaccinated by spring, I can’t see any countries opening up to us until they also have equal immunity.
South east Asia had their dummy run with SARS. the only difference is the UK really didn't bother to learn that lesson. To be fair the UK seemed to have gone out of it's way to do almost exactly the opposite of the lessons learn't from SARS.
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Thanks DC3, it looks like something else you would see down the toilet the morning after, I suppose it could be classed as good for you and energy giving during his lockdown.
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I think you are in the majority in this case, which is why S21 summer is a write off as tourist sector needs to be able to plan, little or no bookings means no planning possible.
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Absolutely S21 is a write off. While the U.K leads Europe in vaccinations too many people in the U.K. won’t be vaccinated by the summer. Europe will be even worse with its slow disjointed response with some smaller EU nations now complaining of being rationed as I predicted weeks ago due to a vaccine shortage.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...ries-to-europe
As time goes on, more and more mutations will appear so it will be exceedingly difficult for the U.K to lift any international restrictions, in fact I can see the U.K making international travel even harder and more expensive by only allowing the PCR test as the only negative test acceptable and banning all international direct flights to more countries.
As the world has discovered with the U.K version, by the time a mutant has been detected it is often too late so the threat of spreading new versions to the U.K needs to be stopped even before they are detected. This will no doubt be on the governments mind despite protests come the Spring from Ryanair with its jab and go campaign.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...ries-to-europe
As time goes on, more and more mutations will appear so it will be exceedingly difficult for the U.K to lift any international restrictions, in fact I can see the U.K making international travel even harder and more expensive by only allowing the PCR test as the only negative test acceptable and banning all international direct flights to more countries.
As the world has discovered with the U.K version, by the time a mutant has been detected it is often too late so the threat of spreading new versions to the U.K needs to be stopped even before they are detected. This will no doubt be on the governments mind despite protests come the Spring from Ryanair with its jab and go campaign.
Last edited by LTNman; 16th Jan 2021 at 09:07.
If S21 becomes a write off, which I indeed too fear, how are we to have a travel industry?
If the significant / all of the most vulnerable are protected by Easter, what justification is there to maintain lockdowns and travel restrictions?
I wouldn't use "disjointed" to describe the European vaccination programme - I'd call it pathetic in all honesty. Scientists have done their bit. Time for the politicians to get a grip.
If the significant / all of the most vulnerable are protected by Easter, what justification is there to maintain lockdowns and travel restrictions?
I wouldn't use "disjointed" to describe the European vaccination programme - I'd call it pathetic in all honesty. Scientists have done their bit. Time for the politicians to get a grip.
...but the net result is still the same. The jab goes in the arm of the population.
Back to aviation anyway - I wouldn't want to guess what would happen if S21 was a total washout. This summer needs to happen. Otherwise there will be significant casualties. A lot of money from last year is tied up in this year's bookings. That cash flow was a lifeline, but I cannot see passengers being as patient as before.
Back to aviation anyway - I wouldn't want to guess what would happen if S21 was a total washout. This summer needs to happen. Otherwise there will be significant casualties. A lot of money from last year is tied up in this year's bookings. That cash flow was a lifeline, but I cannot see passengers being as patient as before.
Thread Starter
Some airlines have been taking a longer term pudent view, while some have been racing to open new bases and new routes. Personally speaking I think those who have taken a prudent view will have the cash when market really does open up.
racedo
They won't be happy because the loss of foreign income with be felt quite badly, plus the welfare costs of most of the UK travel industry being out of work will out weigh any benefit from a "staycation".
The UK is a trading nation, it needs its transport sector to be fully operational, and not just aviation.
Personally I think S21 will happen. S20 happened to an extent, and now we have safe and effective vaccines. Too many jobs and business are riding on it, both here and abroad for it not to happen.
They won't be happy because the loss of foreign income with be felt quite badly, plus the welfare costs of most of the UK travel industry being out of work will out weigh any benefit from a "staycation".
The UK is a trading nation, it needs its transport sector to be fully operational, and not just aviation.
Personally I think S21 will happen. S20 happened to an extent, and now we have safe and effective vaccines. Too many jobs and business are riding on it, both here and abroad for it not to happen.
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The Sunday Telegraph is reporting that the government intends to jab everyone aged over 18 by the end of June. If you think that means opening up the world for holidays then think again as it might well mean the opposite as the Sunday Times is reporting that ministers are drawing up plans that all arrivals into the U.K. will have to stay in quarantine hotels as the government fears mutant strains.
Last edited by LTNman; 17th Jan 2021 at 04:08.
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Jonty
Average spend of a couple on holiday abroad including flights is £3000, aside from air fares, all the money is spent in a foreign country. IF people stay in UK then Govt views it they will spend it in UK and UK VAT is 20% so tax man will be happy. In addition it will provide jobs and income in UK. £2000 spent in Uk holiday area is probably worth £5000 to the local economy, hence why Govt will be glad as it provides jobs and stops money leaving the UK.
Average spend of a couple on holiday abroad including flights is £3000, aside from air fares, all the money is spent in a foreign country. IF people stay in UK then Govt views it they will spend it in UK and UK VAT is 20% so tax man will be happy. In addition it will provide jobs and income in UK. £2000 spent in Uk holiday area is probably worth £5000 to the local economy, hence why Govt will be glad as it provides jobs and stops money leaving the UK.