Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

[PAXboy]

Before this has fully played out, I expect there to be civil unrest with Food being the number one category. No one can say where or when but do not be surprised when it happens.

[mike current]

I expect you to be wrong, but only time (and date / timestamps on posts) will tell

[ZFT]

With poor souls in the Sub Continent already dying of hunger, sadly PaxBoy will be correct. Crime and civil unrest is inevitable in the developing world and possibly even in the (so called) developed world too.

Somewhat easier to self isolate when one has a roof and a full larder I would suggest.

As you say, time will tell!

[PAXboy]

1. Human behaviour.
2. UK humans stock piling in panic at the first glimpse of risk.
3. UK humans ignoring govt advice - when it eventually came.
4. Interconnected supply chains, the complexity of which most have no knowledge - count how many countries are involved for basic food stuffs.
5. The UK govt having little understanding of business in the 21st Century (despite claiming to be the party of buisness) they did not understand the implications of leaving the EU on supply chains
6. The UK govt having run down the Police force by 20,000 not to mention the Health Service and Fire Brigade. The Military are also below strength.
7. Human behaviour.

[LTNman]

Originally Posted by PAXboy

Before this has fully played out, I expect there to be civil unrest with Food being the number one category. No one can say where or when but do not be surprised when it happens.

I was watching a news item where Americans were queuing around the corner to buy even more guns as though they didn’t have enough already

It seems that they are more frightened of their neighbours than the virus but then there was more than 15,000 gun deaths last year excluding suicide. The virus death toll stands at 8500 as of today.

I note that even the American government is stealing other countries supplies so the country has form when it comes down to looking after number one.

[SWBKCB]

Don't underestimate the amount of planning that has gone into maintaining the food supply chain and distribution network.

[racedo]

I think we are coming from same place on this.

I buying Alaskan pollock fish frozen in Lidl that was caught in 2017 and this was before crisis started.

I know we diverging from the air travel bit but chickens from hatch to plate is 30 days minimum but reality closer to 40 so anything hatched on 1st March is ready.
Beef is a lot longer but there is massive amount there plus add in sheep / pork then there will not be a lack of protein.

Wheat crops worldwide will be high, Russia is massive producer with huge exports that outstripping US.

Fruit and Veg will be an issue due to the floods last winter in Lincolnshire / Norfolk / Suffolk, add in the issues across Europe and there will be issues come summer because countrys will want to hold for safety stock rather than export.

There likely enough apples for a couple of years, mainly in sheds where CO2 is reduced to prolong life plus reduce cider crop in Herefordshire to human consumption.

Issue is picking and logistics.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by PAXboy

Before this has fully played out, I expect there to be civil unrest with Food being the number one category. No one can say where or when but do not be surprised when it happens.

8 weeks ago with my lad built up food stock well before the panic craze, had been working away so there was little in house anyway and he living elsewhere. Once we had stocked up we split it and put large container of food away into the attic in a bugger to get to place. If we get to needing to go there then a different plan comes into play which involves exiting place of abode.

The events have played out as I saw it to now but final stage is the one below.

When supemarkets have no longer any food, supply chain is exhausted and people are hungry then I view the civil unrest because of food likely to occur. However allied with attacks on food stores which will be defended by police, will be attacks on homes which are then stripped of food. I think we are a way way off that yet but will revise that in 3 months.

Friends keep reminding me that Transit van to Ireland full of food is still an excellent option as ferrys still running, hell they said just take the transit and don't worry about the food if TSHTF. I am hopeful that will not be the case ever.

[SWBKCB]

This is Jet Blast stuff and now well off topic.

[Yeehaw22]

Indeed. I'm just glad I'm not a resident in the racedo house at present. Life is depressing enough right now without spending time thinking like that.

[racedo]

Same thinking has gone on in Govt and Police, hence pressure on food manufacturers / retailers to keep food supply going. We shown not to far away from it either.

But back to Aviation.

[Barling Magna]

I see another Aer Lingus A330 heading across the UK now en route from Dublin to Beijing. Presumably to pick up more PPE like the flight three days ago.

[racedo]

Dublin v Beijing is Dublins busiest international air route with 5 flights per day.

Total schdeuled flights are 60 over a period of weeks.

[davidjohnson6]

BRA in Sweden seem to be in deep trouble

[inOban]

RR have cancelled their dividend and withdrawn their financial forecast because much of their income is per hour in use, which has obviously collapsed. On the other hand, issues with the Trent 1000 seem to be easing.

I've been wondering. Various airlines must have been looking for compensation for the unavailability of Trent-powered a/c. Since the planes now wouldn't be flying anyway, presumably their claim is reduced?

BTW won't the same apply, even more, to the MAX? Can't claim for the grounding of planes now grounded by COVID 19

[commit aviation]

I’m sure Boeing would like your thinking bit it seems a bit unlikely to me.

Airlines or leasing companies would own the aircraft. They will decide how often, where and when to fly it. Airlines are not flying because there are very few customers around due the countries closing their borders but it is the airlines choice (albeit the only obvious one)
If I was an airline or leasing company I would probably argue that I was deprived the used of the aircraft notwithstanding Coronavirus.

If I follow how I think you are thinking, what’s to stop me heading down to my local Ford dealership when it reopens and asking for some money back on my car? I am currently working from home, can get my groceries delivered, so as we are all technically under lockdown, I can’t really drive my car at the moment. I suspect I would be told that it is my choice not to drive (after they stopped laughing and before asking me to go away!)

As for “power by the hour” engine deals, you might have a stronger case there.
...no doubt a lot of lawyers will make a few pounds, euros and dollars arguing about it in due course...

[commit aviation]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52190502

Not a huge surprise to see this story - my only real surprise is that it took this long to appear.
My question is will pro-aviation or pro-environment have the loudest voice or deepest pockets to win the day?

All thoughts welcome - the situation feels so fluid at the moment I’m still not sure anyone knows how this will pan out.

[Jetscream 32]

It will be interesting to see who can withstand and model a return to scheduled services in possibly 10% incremental capacity steps on certain routes as the world begins to slowly try and get back to a new normal.

I am still struggling to see how large fleet operators will be able to keep the company alive whilst re-introducing reduced capacity in a competitive environment - if you only reactivate 30% of your fleet - can you still afford the fixed costs of the other 70%? I'm not sure many can for potentially 2-5 years.

[LGS6753]

Two views of the future on Blue Swan today:

https://blueswandaily.com/iag-negoti...contracts-ceo/

https://blueswandaily.com/easyjet-wi...ifted-founder/

Entirely predictable that the BBC should report on the demands of a lunatic fringe group (above) instead of reporting in a balanced manner.

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by LGS6753

Entirely predictable that the BBC should report on the demands of a lunatic fringe group (above) instead of reporting in a balanced manner.

Hmmm.

The article ends with

"IATA has been approached for a comment".

Presumably no response was received that might have provided aforesaid balance.