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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 18th Mar 2020, 18:22
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Air Tahiti have changed their flights from CDG_LAX_PPT to go via Guadeloupe in the West indies to avoid the USA - where there's a will ..................
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 20:58
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As all are aware, plenty of airlines have stated that they will be suspending operations for maybe 2 weeks, or they plan to ground maybe 75% of their fleet for a month
I realise that airlines are almost all seeing very negative cashflow, so are desperate not to lose any more cash / working capital from their bank accounts than absolutely necessary - so no airline will say "we are suspending ops for 3 months" when they could just suspend for 2 weeks and then keep adding a week at a time incremenetally over the next few months

Does anyone have any thoughts as to when flight operations might return to being at least two thirds of what they were for the equivalent month in 2019 ? September 2020 ? Spring 2021 ? Autumn 2021 (i.e. 18 months after Covid-19 became uncontained and we hopefully have a vaccine) ? Later ?
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 21:20
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Don't see much reduction in traffic on FR24. Over 11,000 planes in the sky ATM.
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 21:45
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What is your point? Surely you don't doubt the reduction exists? There have been an unprecedented amount of flight cancelations in Europe, all European airlines have frozen recruitment, uprgrades and are forcing unpaid leave or holiday, Ryan Air has cancelled around 85% of it's schedule for example. Didn't I hear that Airbus also paused their prodcution? At my airline we are told we may not even operate in April all together. This is literally the quiet before the storm, **** is about to get much worse in Europe.

I think we will be facing this threat for at least 18 months, however I hope by the summer it will somewhat stabilize, procedures will be in place and people may start flying again. But my humble estimate is that April, May and perhaps June are complete write offs for European aviation.

Best of luck everyone

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Old 18th Mar 2020, 23:22
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Originally Posted by pedrothepilot
I think we will be facing this threat for at least 18 months, however I hope by the summer it will somewhat stabilize, procedures will be in place and people may start flying again. But my humble estimate is that April, May and perhaps June are complete write offs for European aviation.

Best of luck everyone
Think that is a reasonable assumption because it will be close to that.

Issue in the great reboot is lots of refresher time needed.
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Old 18th Mar 2020, 23:24
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Originally Posted by The AvgasDinosaur
More screen time for pundits to pontificate👎
If I get house arrest hope they take my telly too
🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
David
Will send food parcels............... sorry will send Beer parcels.

Noticeable the Vegan aisle is still fairly full in supermarkets.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 00:10
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Air Tahiti have changed their flights from CDG_LAX_PPT to go via Guadeloupe in the West indies to avoid the USA - where there's a will ..................
Now it's a proper domestic flight.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 00:56
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Don't see much reduction in traffic on FR24. Over 11,000 planes in the sky ATM.
If you follow FR24's twitter feed you'll find some graphs showing the fall
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 07:07
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Originally Posted by racedo
Noticeable the Vegan aisle is still fairly full in supermarkets.
Ive noted too. Which adds further weight to my theory the toilet roll and pasta hoarders are one and the same as Daily Mail readers and “I want my country back” Brexiteers
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 09:46
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We can't do much right now but I'd like to see some thought given on how we'll agree to lift bans etc and get back to "normal".

China & S Korea are effectively in the post infection phase now - you can expect the infection rate in W Europe to start flattening in 4-6 weeks.

Do we start to to lift curbs when our country is no longer infectious? Do we wait until NO country is showing large scale infections?? Do we start be restarting life in our own neighborhood and wait on the rest of the world??
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 11:37
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A news item this morning mentioned that Lufthansa is to ground 700 aircraft.

With all these airlines suspending routes, where are they going to find enough space to park up all these Airbuses and Boeings?
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 11:51
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Qantas to standdown 20,000 people with immediate effect until at least end of May
Annual bonuses cancelled, Board / Group Manageent will not be paid for 3 months
Annual wage bill of $4.3 Billion so need to save cash now.
Memo was from Alan Joyce
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 11:56
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Originally Posted by Martin the Martian
A news item this morning mentioned that Lufthansa is to ground 700 aircraft.

With all these airlines suspending routes, where are they going to find enough space to park up all these Airbuses and Boeings?
There are large numbers of airports all over DACH which do not normally have much traffic at the best of times. Think of somewhere like Lubeck... I imagine that military air bases could also be used if necessary. Alternatively, if aircraft are expected to be unused for several months, they may be sent to a boneyard somewhere hot and dry

Shorthaul aircraft are all grounded every night anyway - although airlines might need to swap parking spots with each other if they want everything in their home countries. It's only long haul aircraft that need the extra space
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 12:09
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No one will be storing aircraft at Luton as it has eye watering stand charges.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 13:00
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
Alternatively, if aircraft are expected to be unused for several months, they may be sent to a boneyard somewhere hot and dry
Problem is how would you get the crews home again?!
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 13:11
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10 aircraft need to go into long term storage ?
Send them all off to Teruel or some other boneyard, at gaps 5 mins apart, from your base. Send an 11th plane (either your own, or charter something smaller if cheaper) to bring those 20 pilots home a few hours later.
Offer the 20 pilots extra money to do this task, and provide them all with hazmat clothing to prevent infection risk
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 15:59
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Ive noted too. Which adds further weight to my theory the toilet roll and pasta hoarders are one and the same as Daily Mail readers and “I want my country back” Brexiteers
Time to self-isolate?
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 17:14
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Does anyone else feel that Coronavirus is achieving in a matter of months what 10-25 years of industry evolution would be seeing - massive consolidation, LCC dominance (when they re-emerge) and the end of domestic and regional flying. It is probably also going to see early retirement of all A380's and 747's. I doubt very much if they will make any sort of come-back.

But once this is over I guess it's going to be a leaner fitter and much more efficient airline industry. Hopefully airlines like Wizz and Ryanair and others will be places for new work and job opportunities.

Expansion of airports may be delayed by a few years I think.

Oh... and Alitalia will still be around.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 17:18
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No, please you just go ahead and kick us as hard as you can in the 'nadgers' - don't hold back!!

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/theme...nger-rights_en
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 17:24
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32
No, please you just go ahead and kick us as hard as you can in the 'nadgers' - don't hold back!!

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/theme...nger-rights_en
They providing clarification and stating E261 does not apply.

Most airlines are being fair but there are some travel agents who are blissfully ignoring customer calls and refusing to return cash received on paid for flights.
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