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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 13th Mar 2020, 16:18
  #301 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting that according to the WHO the daily cases outside of China are still above 15%
UK daily increase currently at 20%
USA daily increase currently trending at over 40% per day..... that could be tricky!!

Really interesting if you haven't looked at these: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

With global borders shutting down and almost everyone having to self isolate for 14 days on arrival if they are flying then I think by Monday 16th the world airline landscape is going to be very different again.

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 17:20
  #302 (permalink)  
 
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Chinese domestic airline travel continues to increase. Was on an absolutely jam packed flight today between two lesser known cities. The whole system is working towards the greater cause with temperature checks, a barcode system linked to an app which tracks your whereabouts and knows if you've been in a high risk area and much more. Every single person wears a mask and just gets on with it. Meanwhile d*ckheads at home are scrambling and brawling over loo rolls and hand gel. Talk about third world!
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:11
  #303 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CW247 View Post
Chinese domestic airline travel continues to increase. Was on an absolutely jam packed flight today between two lesser known cities. The whole system is working towards the greater cause with temperature checks, a barcode system linked to an app which tracks your whereabouts and knows if you've been in a high risk area and much more. Every single person wears a mask and just gets on with it. Meanwhile d*ckheads at home are scrambling and brawling over loo rolls and hand gel. Talk about third world!
UK has always been lead by the Daily Fail, The Scum, and other vile nasty pieces of gutter press. This is why we've got this going on - they are causing panic for no reason for a cheap headline the following day. Hence why we've got Boris "clueless" Johnson and his vile government. These nasty scum bag pieces of press led a campaign full of lies against Corbyn and Labour. Brainwashed the nation. They'd certainly be a target of mine if i was to ever become Prime Minister.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:22
  #304 (permalink)  
 
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You will find that many would disagree with you. But this thread isn't the place to argue party politics.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:29
  #305 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OzzyOzBorn View Post
You will find that many would disagree with you. But this thread isn't the place to argue party politics.
Certainly isn't - and people have their choice. But you try have a factual debate with someone re: the election and i tell you right now the people voting for the conservative or the ones i have had the debate with were quoting lies which were peddled by the Daily Mail, The Scum etc.

I'll stick by my point above - we are acting 3rd world thanks to the nasty scum bags who write crap for their income.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:32
  #306 (permalink)  
 
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You are out of order. It would be quite easy to point out untruths peddled by the left. But leave this thread for COVID-19. That is concern enough.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:34
  #307 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OzzyOzBorn View Post
You are out of order. It would be quite easy to point out untruths peddled by the left. But leave this thread for COVID-19. That is concern enough.
Im pointing out why are, the UK, are acting in the 3rd world way we are WHILST China has very much organised a very structured approach to it. Our free press. And i used GE as an example of this. I'm not out of order, i'm highlighting the simple truth.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:10
  #308 (permalink)  
 
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Read post 287 on this thread. The strategy is quite logical. Not a matter for party political point scoring.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:18
  #309 (permalink)  
 
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There is much to be said on how the media and different political systems influences how Govt forms policies towards handling pandemics. What works in an authoritarian state with little journalistic freedom doesn't work in a liberal democracy, different societies prioritise human rights in different ways - it's a huge topic for debate... but maybe something for JetBlast ?
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 23:39
  #310 (permalink)  
 
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The strategy adopted by China, and by its neighbours, has been to use draconian restrictions to throttle the spread of the virus. The trouble is that outside Hubei province very few have been infected, so, as soon as normal activities resume it is likely that the disease will reappear (until a vaccine is developed).
The policy in the UK and I think the rest of Europe is to accept that most people will catch it and it will die out when enough have, and are immune. The focus is on ensuring that we don't all catch it at once, overwhelming the hospitals as has happened in northern Italy.
Which strategy will prove to be correct? Time will tell.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 00:15
  #311 (permalink)  
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Now the UK govt talks of banning mass gatherings from next week. This seems curious as, an infectious person can more easily infect those around them - than across a stadium. If you ban mass gatherings it does not stop infected (but asymptomatic) people from infecting numerous people.

But, happily we shall know the answer very shortly, in about three months time...
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 04:37
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Originally Posted by LBAflyer22 View Post
Certainly isn't - and people have their choice. But you try have a factual debate with someone re: the election and i tell you right now the people voting for the conservative or the ones i have had the debate with were quoting lies which were peddled by the Daily Mail, The Scum etc.

I'll stick by my point above - we are acting 3rd world thanks to the nasty scum bags who write crap for their income.
You are clearly an angry person who hasn’t got over the loss of yet another General Election, which is actually yesterday’s news. People like Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were the authors of their own downfall together with a manifesto that made the party unelectable.

Back to the thread. Countries are shutting the door after the horse has bolted but there is an argument that restrictions on entry could still make a difference. This virus can’t be stopped now, most people accept that point so it comes down to controlling the speed of the infection rate to build up the populations immunity in a controlled manner, if that is even possible, and to keep it away from elderly people. When enough people have immunity it will help keep others safe and reduce the impact of further waves of infections hitting the U.K. next winter.

We can see what is happening in Italy where their health service is overwhelmed. This is going to happen to not only the NHS but most health services in Europe so is a frightening prospect as people will die due to a lack of treatment.

It might not happen in America where many Americans would rather die than pay the deductibles which insurance companies charge. Then there is of course those millions of Americans with no insurance who could not even afford the $2000 for a ride in an ambulance let alone any treatment.

It will be interesting to see the final death rates for America compared with Europe with its socialised health care.

Last edited by LTNman; 14th Mar 2020 at 05:17.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 06:39
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Last mention of aviation was ten posts ago - back on topic, please or take it to JetBlast.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 07:54
  #314 (permalink)  
 
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Concerning the air traffic, the most radical countries in that regard are at present these in Central-Eastern Europe. For example:
  • Czechia is closing all its borders, allowing only its own citizens to return back home. To my understanding, that does not mean ban on flights at the moment
  • Slovakia closes all its international airports for passenger traffic as of now
  • Poland introduces ban on all international flights from Sunday 15th of March
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 14:11
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For an airline that is medium sized or larger (ie 50 aircraft each with 150 seats), does anyone have an idea of how much of the company's costs would be variable (fuel, air nav charges, per-pax airport charges, etc) versus fixed costs (salaries, debt repayment for new aircrafy, rental on office space, etc) ?
Furthermore, how much of these fixed costs can be cut (eg staff redundancies) without the risk of being sued heavily in court (eg by aircraft lessors) ?

I realise that every airline is different and commercial confidentiality mean exact figure are private - but there must be some sort of ballpark ranges for this
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 14:53
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Spain is now closed and citizens under effective lockdown
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 14:56
  #317 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
For an airline that is medium sized or larger (ie 50 aircraft each with 150 seats), does anyone have an idea of how much of the company's costs would be variable (fuel, air nav charges, per-pax airport charges, etc) versus fixed costs (salaries, debt repayment for new aircrafy, rental on office space, etc) ?
Furthermore, how much of these fixed costs can be cut (eg staff redundancies) without the risk of being sued heavily in court (eg by aircraft lessors) ?

I realise that every airline is different and commercial confidentiality mean exact figure are private - but there must be some sort of ballpark ranges for this
Every airline will be different but as posted day or two ago the 1.) Lease 2.) Payroll 3.) Fuel 4.) Airport / APD / ATC / etc wil likely to be the highest in value terms.

Aircraft lessors will have to take a pragmatic view of rescheduling payments because failing to do that means Airlines start collapsing and there is not a who new range of clients out there will to take aircraft on, hence still owe but instead of paying next quarterly payment (not sure whether it is like property where rent paid 4 times a yr in advance) debt gets parked until can be paid. Lessors taking a hard line will likely find that other airlines / govts etc act against them like banking license etc. Basically everybody in same boat so consistent approach sought.

Employess............. likely to be laid off, Govt will then have to fund via welfare system

Fuel............. not using then not paying and contracts for certain levels will just be rolled over, bearing in mind fuel price halved then oil companies will want airlines held to contracts at 75 a barrel, hence play ball.

Govts etc............... possibly more problematic but can see airlines taking a lot longer to pay, airports which do not have aircraft stationed there and no flights coming in for foreseeable future may not be paid for a long time. Pay those whom you need to pay, rest will pay eventually. Some airports will go bust.

We should also remember the thousands of staff who work in airports, many already on reduced hours and many will lose their jobs.

Bottom line is to manage cash flow now.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 16:05
  #318 (permalink)  
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LTNman
it comes down to controlling the speed of the infection rate to build up the populations immunity in a controlled manner, if that is even possible, and to keep it away from elderly people. When enough people have immunity it will help keep others safe and reduce the impact of further waves of infections hitting the U.K. next winter.
Unfortunately, the virus has already mutated and at least two strains have been identified. Herd immunity is not possible.

All govts are going to print money, unfortunately, as we were on the brink of recession anyway - this will compound the sovereign debt problem.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 16:46
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UK and Ireland to be added to the list of naughty countries by the USA
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 17:13
  #320 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
For an airline that is medium sized or larger (ie 50 aircraft each with 150 seats), does anyone have an idea of how much of the company's costs would be variable (fuel, air nav charges, per-pax airport charges, etc) versus fixed costs (salaries, debt repayment for new aircrafy, rental on office space, etc) ?
Furthermore, how much of these fixed costs can be cut (eg staff redundancies) without the risk of being sued heavily in court (eg by aircraft lessors) ?
A good example is airlines that have been hit by long term strikes, sometimes several months. These seem to manage through all these fixed costs with no income without significant subsequent collapse. This happens even through passenger loyalty, once restarted, may have evaporated to other carriers, which is not going to happen here.
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