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Old 26th Oct 2017, 13:32
  #101 (permalink)  
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Peak Brum?...
It appears apparent BHX in particular was highly unlikely to support both a major MON base & a new & expanding EXS base..
With the expansive EXS operation among the larger airports BHX was the one in line for a noticeable shake up/shakeout.
The NAX & VLG withdrawal probably bear witness to a finite market for BHX & recognition that one dominant albeit expanding player in this segment will prevail.
Some posters wish-lists for destination provision & frequency must undoubtedly be disappointed.
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Old 26th Oct 2017, 14:35
  #102 (permalink)  
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I don't believe for a moment that we have reached "Peak Brum", but certainly there was probably too much capacity too soon on some routes, not only for the carriers but also for the terminal infrastructure, so a fall back in PAX numbers might prove a blessing in disguise.

NAX has retrenched from the UK / Med market generally, BHX isn't the only victim, and the Vueling situation appears somewhat similar.

There are plenty of possibilities for new destinations that would probably work with the right carrier and frequency, but through no fault of the airport, too much capacity has hit the traditional bucket and spade destinations, and this has now been (over) corrected, probably temporarily.
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Old 26th Oct 2017, 21:03
  #103 (permalink)  
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Thomson W18/19

Looking like two based 788's

Langkawi (Malaysia) and Bangkok run from Dec until the end of March.

Plus Aqaba, Muscat, Dubai

Goa is weekly instead and on a Monday/Tuesday and a second Bridgetown added on a Thursday. Montego Bay Tuesday & Wednesday, Cancun Monday & Friday.

Thursday BGI is from Christmas but the aircraft operates to Sanford for part of November.
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Old 26th Oct 2017, 22:26
  #104 (permalink)  
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I presume the Tui Aqaba, Muscat, Dubai flights are for cruises, not holiday destinations?
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Old 26th Oct 2017, 22:34
  #105 (permalink)  
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I wonder if NAX are intending to expand their German operations in the wake of BER's departure? This might then be the reason for reducing their UK operations.
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Old 26th Oct 2017, 23:03
  #106 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ssflyer View Post
I presume the Tui Aqaba, Muscat, Dubai flights are for cruises, not holiday destinations?
You presume correctly, which makes me surprised this warrants two 'based' season 787s
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Old 31st Oct 2017, 15:49
  #107 (permalink)  
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ACL have published "start of season" data for W17:
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Old 31st Oct 2017, 17:15
  #108 (permalink)  
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Which if it still includes the Monarch movements, which it appears to do, means nothing on the headline figures.

Last edited by Centre cities; 31st Oct 2017 at 17:16. Reason: grammer
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Old 1st Nov 2017, 13:20
  #109 (permalink)  
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Jet2 Winter 18/19

The schedule has started to be loaded with some of the usual suspects bookable as well Prague returning and Rome carrying over.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 09:50
  #110 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by FQTLSteve View Post
Glad to see that Vueling are continuing their BHX-AGP direct service through the whole winter season minimum x2 weekly, not generous but at least another option (plus connection options via BCN and MAD).
Not as far as I can see. Two flights per week to Barcelona and connect at Barcelona for Malaga.

Centre cities
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 09:56
  #111 (permalink)  
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Centre cities...Yes my mistake. I received an email this morning from them advertising AGP-BHX showing winter schedule, I didn't check the flight details properly. Apologies for my lack of attention to detail.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 10:30
  #112 (permalink)  
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Having just looked at a very comprehensive BHX scheduled timetable for winter 17/18, the demise of Monarch and withdrawal of Vueling and Norwegian sees frequency and choice from BHX on traditional winter sun routes slashed. Jet2 have admirably added some capacity but the hole Monarch have left behind is nowhere near filled. I'm not saying that 5 airlines on the same route is financially sustainable (e.g. BHX-AGP) but I doubt what is left (basically Jet2 and Ryanair) will satisfy all the demand for travel on these routes this winter: increased leakage to other airports is inevitable but in my opinion unnecessary. I was booked to fly Monarch BHX-FAO in Nov but am now having to fly out of Bristol instead, due to my travel dates. I should imagine I'm just one of thousands whow have had to do this. Hopefully Summer 18 will see an improvement in frequencies if not choice of airlines.

Summer 18 will indeed be interesting. At present, BHX has lost Aegean, Air Transat, Cobalt, Norwegian and United. Flybe are down to 10 aircraft. In terms of destinations, no more Athens, Brest, Gibraltar, Limoges, Lisbon, Luxembourg, Nice, Nuremburg, Paris Orly, Preveza, Rennes, Toulouse, Valencia. Perhaps small fry in terms of individual route performance, but they all mean lost passengers, lost revenue to BHX and reduced choice.

On the bright side though - Jet2 of course add aircraft and Pisa, Almeria and Thessaloniki as well stepping in on a number of Monarch routes, SAS start Stockholm and Primera start Newark, Boston and Toronto which could revolutionize trans-Atlantic travel from BHX. TUI and Thomas Cook also see expanded operations with Varna and Marsa Alam back on the departure screens and Podgorica a first from BHX, amongst other increases. Winter 18/19 sees TUI start Langkawi and Bangkok which shows continued commitment to long haul leisure routes from BHX.

By no means is it a glass half empty situation at all but summer 18 will have a very different feel at BHX to the one just gone.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 10:52
  #113 (permalink)  
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a very interesting time ahead indeed. Yes lots of Gaps in the schedule and following my recent Calcs, as things currently stand, seat capacity for next summer is reduced by circa 10%. that said, I expect that a lot of work is being done behind the scenes to find extra capacity to expect news over the coming few weeks which may well respond to this drop...

A balance needs to be found. Yields were killed this summer. great for passenger choice but awful for sustainable passenger services. we have now gone to the other extreme with demand going through the roof! a re-balance needs to be struck over the coming months to find a suitable middle....
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 11:17
  #114 (permalink)  
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It's great that other airlines have picked up some of the excess capacity. At short notice, there was never going to be a full replacement to MON's schedule.

Definately agree with nwoody, we need S18 to take stock, and replenish the yields to balance the supply/demand. May lose out in the short term, but with the insatiable growth of FR/LS and others, S19 might be back on track. What we don't want is another oversupply to kill the market again
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 11:44
  #115 (permalink)  
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I think S17 will be seen as a peak performance year for a number of UK airports. The continued uncertainty of Brexit (eg will Brits have visa free travel to the EU come March 2019?) will have an effect on people's planning as will a slightly gloomier economic outlook and the weakness of the Pound. I think people will still take their Summer holiday whatever the cost but will cut down on short breaks / weekends away etc.

On the point of 10% seat capacity reduction S17/S18 (as it stands now) that is indicative of the over-supply from S17.
I know many aviation enthusiasts will say 'yes but the planes were full' but clearly they were full of too many people not paying an economically sustainable price - hence no more Monarch and all the other airlines exiting. Take it to the ultimate extreme and give seats away for nothing you will have almost 100% load factor.

I would not expect the 10% lost capacity to be fully made up as that would imply another round of over-supply, losses and more tears next Winter. Some more capacity will inevitably appear but the full 10% would be daft and ultimately undesirable if we want sustainability over the long term.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 11:54
  #116 (permalink)  
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Very fair analysis, and if Catalunya were to go thoroughly pear shaped the outlook could become extremely dire. Thankfully, at the moment, both sides in that spat appear to be keeping their heads. Long may that continue to be the case, but still I wouldn't be booking my holiday on the Costa Brava 6 months ahead in the current climate.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 12:16
  #117 (permalink)  
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Take it to the ultimate extreme and give seats away for nothing you will have almost 100% load factor.
Case in point...Ryanair. It's the only reason you see fares as low as 2 sometimes (previous promotion, i think it was a black friday event) , it's as close as they can get to giving them away, but it's the only way they'll fill the flights no one really wants
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 14:26
  #118 (permalink)  
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Ryanair is an advertising/marketing ploy. Judging by the Ryanair results they do not operate flights that nobody wants and if they do it is pulled pretty quickly.

Overcapacity can not be blamed solely for the Monarch demise at BHX and elsewhere although extra competition did not help. Were they not in the same mess last year without the Jet 2 presence at BHX.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 15:29
  #119 (permalink)  
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I agree that many airports will struggle to sustain numbers over the next year. Recent routes have had long enough to prove that they can generate real income rather than PAX at loss leading fares.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 16:35
  #120 (permalink)  
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(eg will Brits have visa free travel to the EU come March 2019?)
You mean like the way we did before there was an EU? Am going to go out on a limb and say "yes".
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