Southend-2
Join Date: Oct 2013
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It's been suggested that a new three weekly Paderborn service will be opened by Adria Airways this summer. Small progress, but every little helps.
Source below (in German):
Adria Airways plant Paderborn-Wien - Austrian Aviation Net
Source below (in German):
Adria Airways plant Paderborn-Wien - Austrian Aviation Net
Join Date: Jul 2015
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Shareholders getting twitchy? Buyback to calm the shareholders down and keep them sweet with further investment reward? Or simply trying to bump their EPS. Who knows but missed strategic growth forecasts may not be acceptable to investors which is my theory, are they possibly trying to keep them onside?
Join Date: Aug 2014
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Approximate December loads for Stobart routes
Dublin - 72.6 (61.5%),
Glasgow - 39.5 (33.5%)
Manchester - 27.4 (39%)
Cologne - 72.5 (61.4)
Budapest - 67.2 (57%),
Prague - 94.8 (80.4%)
Rennes - 46.3 (66.2%)
Groningen - 45.7 (65.3)
Vienna - 63.5 (53.8%),
Lyon (approximate based on EZY assumption) - 46.9 (39.7%)
All in all not too bad. Glasgow continues to be quite poor, Manchester has improved on November but still needs improvement. Cologne seems to have done better than I expected. Lyon looks to have been weak which would explain why it was dropped for January.
Dublin - 72.6 (61.5%),
Glasgow - 39.5 (33.5%)
Manchester - 27.4 (39%)
Cologne - 72.5 (61.4)
Budapest - 67.2 (57%),
Prague - 94.8 (80.4%)
Rennes - 46.3 (66.2%)
Groningen - 45.7 (65.3)
Vienna - 63.5 (53.8%),
Lyon (approximate based on EZY assumption) - 46.9 (39.7%)
All in all not too bad. Glasgow continues to be quite poor, Manchester has improved on November but still needs improvement. Cologne seems to have done better than I expected. Lyon looks to have been weak which would explain why it was dropped for January.
Join Date: Aug 2011
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I beg to differ, must be costing STK a fortune to run their routes. Something will have to give one day!
Surely it would make sense to look to convert MAN/GLA/GRQ/RNS into AT46 routes?
Whilst fuel costs will be similar to a AT76, leasing/purchase will be 30% cheaper (I expect they've got EI-GEV a lump cheaper again as it had been sat around for a while). SEN base still relies to a certain extent on crew from DUB/ORK bases all of which adds further costs, to reduce CC to 1 would be helpful.
At least figures would show good loads, one of a more successful airport. Not only that they'd not be throwing a shed load of money down the drain each flight and actually stand a chance of brining something in.
Why MAN/GLA were chosen over BHD/EDI from the outside seems madness. Seemed more than enough trade to BHD/EDI to support ATR operations when EZY operated them or are there restrictions with BE on these routes?
Quite what they are going to do with the full compliment of E-jets I don't know. Would probably make more sense to try and persuade EI to let them operate a number of them under the EIR banner.
Surely it would make sense to look to convert MAN/GLA/GRQ/RNS into AT46 routes?
Whilst fuel costs will be similar to a AT76, leasing/purchase will be 30% cheaper (I expect they've got EI-GEV a lump cheaper again as it had been sat around for a while). SEN base still relies to a certain extent on crew from DUB/ORK bases all of which adds further costs, to reduce CC to 1 would be helpful.
At least figures would show good loads, one of a more successful airport. Not only that they'd not be throwing a shed load of money down the drain each flight and actually stand a chance of brining something in.
Why MAN/GLA were chosen over BHD/EDI from the outside seems madness. Seemed more than enough trade to BHD/EDI to support ATR operations when EZY operated them or are there restrictions with BE on these routes?
Quite what they are going to do with the full compliment of E-jets I don't know. Would probably make more sense to try and persuade EI to let them operate a number of them under the EIR banner.
bigjim99
I suspect that STK would have chosen BHD and/or EDI ahead of GLA but there was no way BE would have approved that for competitive reasons. I tend to agree that a couple of AT46s for the SEN base would make sense for MAN, CFR, ANR, RNS & GRQ, particularly because of GRQ's frequency increases this year.
It's an interesting suggestion that the E-Jets could operate under the EIR brand but I seem to remember that not being permitted under the franchise agreement. Perhaps someone closer to the action can comment on that.
I suspect that STK would have chosen BHD and/or EDI ahead of GLA but there was no way BE would have approved that for competitive reasons. I tend to agree that a couple of AT46s for the SEN base would make sense for MAN, CFR, ANR, RNS & GRQ, particularly because of GRQ's frequency increases this year.
It's an interesting suggestion that the E-Jets could operate under the EIR brand but I seem to remember that not being permitted under the franchise agreement. Perhaps someone closer to the action can comment on that.
Join Date: Aug 2014
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bigjim - you're idea would only really work with the GLA route, and that makes the suggestion unviable.
GLA has as far as I'm aware been persistently poor, whereas MAN has been erratic with some flights virtually full and others almost empty. As an extreme example last week one flight was upgraded to an E195 and had 100+ on board ahead of Spurs v Man U.
The average for RNS and GRQ on an AT4 would be nothing like mid-40s because the capacity cap means you would lose pax on flights where current loads exceed 48. The AT7 works just fine, likewise for MAN because a number of individual flights have had loads in the 50s and 60s, but I accept for the latter they need greater consistency and to get the overall average up. To be fair RNS and GRQ had similar averages in the early days and they've now grown, hopefully MAN will do the same but we'll see.
GLA has as far as I'm aware been persistently poor, whereas MAN has been erratic with some flights virtually full and others almost empty. As an extreme example last week one flight was upgraded to an E195 and had 100+ on board ahead of Spurs v Man U.
The average for RNS and GRQ on an AT4 would be nothing like mid-40s because the capacity cap means you would lose pax on flights where current loads exceed 48. The AT7 works just fine, likewise for MAN because a number of individual flights have had loads in the 50s and 60s, but I accept for the latter they need greater consistency and to get the overall average up. To be fair RNS and GRQ had similar averages in the early days and they've now grown, hopefully MAN will do the same but we'll see.
Join Date: Jun 2006
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You have to remember that MAN, GLA etc are only 2 months old. Routes take 1-3 years to mature and establish, and I am told that forward bookings are improving.
The AT46 has almost the same operating economics as the AT76 so there is actually not that much advantage in operating the smaller aircraft apart from driving up seat costs.
I have always said I think MAN will mature, it will be a slow burn but it is a useful route and when it gets into the public consciousness it could tick over quite nicely.
Launching routes in winter is always harder than the summer as demand is generally lower, and January is of course a very poor month, but as we look to the spring i imagine the loads will improve and the routes will do well.
GLA does double daily in the summer season and that could help its fortunes somewhat.
As for EJETs in Ireland, who knows, anything is possible I guess.
The AT46 has almost the same operating economics as the AT76 so there is actually not that much advantage in operating the smaller aircraft apart from driving up seat costs.
I have always said I think MAN will mature, it will be a slow burn but it is a useful route and when it gets into the public consciousness it could tick over quite nicely.
Launching routes in winter is always harder than the summer as demand is generally lower, and January is of course a very poor month, but as we look to the spring i imagine the loads will improve and the routes will do well.
GLA does double daily in the summer season and that could help its fortunes somewhat.
As for EJETs in Ireland, who knows, anything is possible I guess.
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Stobart are taking one additional AT46 into the fleet when the exisiting AT43s retire in the next few weeks. The AT46 is specifically for the CFN route as it is performance limiting for the AT76 due to field length limitations, and has an operating restriction on which crews can operate it.
The rest of the ATR fleet will be AT75/6s as I said above, there is little economic advantage of the smaller aircraft.
The rest of the ATR fleet will be AT75/6s as I said above, there is little economic advantage of the smaller aircraft.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Luxembourg
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I totally agree with Cumbrianboy. the VLM FK50 service from LUX to LCY took 12 months to get 75%+ load factors in competition beside Luxair. Some observers here are suspicious doom and gloomers even before a new route starts. Judge it after a full 12 months and then tell me what you guys think please!
cumbrianboy
Thanks for your useful insight on the subject of AT76 vs AT46 suitability for the SEN routes.
I agree that it is much too early to judge any of the new routes and that should wait until the end of this summer season allows some reasoned judgments to be made. I do feel though that the AT46 could have a useful role at SEN. The GRQ frequencies increase greatly this year and I think the AT46 would be appropriate on that route. Also you have to balance frequencies to demand and the smaller aircraft allows you to make the best market penetration. RNS is a route which benefited greatly from being double daily but the AT76 was just too big for that to continue economically this year apparently so I would put the AT46 on that route and restore its previous frequency. If, of course, the DOC savings are minimal between the two aircraft it is useful, as you suggest, to maximise on peak demands but are their respective costs really that similar?
Thanks for your useful insight on the subject of AT76 vs AT46 suitability for the SEN routes.
I agree that it is much too early to judge any of the new routes and that should wait until the end of this summer season allows some reasoned judgments to be made. I do feel though that the AT46 could have a useful role at SEN. The GRQ frequencies increase greatly this year and I think the AT46 would be appropriate on that route. Also you have to balance frequencies to demand and the smaller aircraft allows you to make the best market penetration. RNS is a route which benefited greatly from being double daily but the AT76 was just too big for that to continue economically this year apparently so I would put the AT46 on that route and restore its previous frequency. If, of course, the DOC savings are minimal between the two aircraft it is useful, as you suggest, to maximise on peak demands but are their respective costs really that similar?
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Don`t forget RYR recommence STN-GLA from 25.3.18 at 3 daily & appears fares promo underway too.
RYR halting their service for the Winter due to the crewing issues was remarked "a bonus for Stobart" on here at the time....
RYR halting their service for the Winter due to the crewing issues was remarked "a bonus for Stobart" on here at the time....
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Whilst I don't use Ryanair, I am sure its a "threat" to the Glasgow route from SEN. The future of this route is on hold for me. I do believe the Manchester route will improve, especially if a few pax are fed in from Groningen, for example.
Join Date: Jun 2011
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amsterdam
starting tomorrow (fri) Amsterdam will be 4 x daily on fri/sun only for the next 2 weeks...ALL FLIGHTS SOLD OUT FOR THE SUNDAY FLIGHT....never had 4 x daily before ,maybe its a sign of things to come