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Southend-2

Old 20th Sep 2018, 07:45
  #2001 (permalink)  
 
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The EZY initial summer 19 schedule is on sale. It appears to be quite similar to this year. Budapest is either dropped from March or is seasonal for winter only which would be a bit odd. Sofia only runs over winter as expected.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 07:59
  #2002 (permalink)  
 
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Murcia also runs through the winter only to be dropped in March.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 08:07
  #2003 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
The EZY initial summer 19 schedule is on sale. It appears to be quite similar to this year. Budapest is either dropped from March or is seasonal for winter only which would be a bit odd. Sofia only runs over winter as expected.
I have noticed it on a few of the 'late winter additions' - Gatwick to Warsaw is one, and routes like La Palma are always late. Looks to be parts missing at the moment rather than not operating.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 08:12
  #2004 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DC3 Dave View Post
Murcia also runs through the winter only to be dropped in March.
The airport closes to commercial traffic after that I believe
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 08:43
  #2005 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GrahamK View Post
The airport closes to commercial traffic after that I believe
Flights to Murcia are being sold by Ryanair out of Stansted and Luton (check end of May)
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 08:50
  #2006 (permalink)  
 
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SEN pax up nearly 40% in the first half of the year according to Shares Magazine and Southend Echo.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 08:51
  #2007 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
The EZY initial summer 19 schedule is on sale. It appears to be quite similar to this year. Budapest is either dropped from March or is seasonal for winter only which would be a bit odd. Sofia only runs over winter as expected.
The main differences for 2019 compared to 2018 (at the time of the early summer schedule release in each case) seem to be that the SEN fleet will be 2 x A319 and 2 x A320 in 2019 compared to 3 x A319 in 2018, there are 79 weekly flights compared to 62 and that 15 destinations will be served compared to 12. The twice weekly MJV seems to have been dropped while ALC increases from 7 to 10 x weekly and FAO from 8 to 10 x weekly.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 09:24
  #2008 (permalink)  
 
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https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/lo...ement/78294445

Am I reading it right that the expanded Flybe franchise has not delivered financially?
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 16:13
  #2009 (permalink)  
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Looks like it:

" At London Southend Airport, the Group has focused on improving awareness through branding and marketing, route development, and airline incentive deals to accelerate its growth. During the financial year, we accelerated the previously announced GBP30m to GBP40m investment plan, principally in relation to the franchised airline business, to enhance the value of the airport through an increase in sustainable and profitable passenger numbers. The introduction of Ryanair flights in Spring 2019 is the next step in the growth of our London airport. This significant long-term partnership agreement is expected to result in at least one million additional passengers in the first year and more than five million in the first five years The agreement with Ryanair gives us further confidence that we will deliver on our aim to welcome five million passengers a year to the airport by 2022. The investment in the franchised operations from London Southend Airport has contributed successfully to the attraction of other airlines to the airport. The results of the Aviation division for the full year, excluding the investment in the franchise operations, are expected to be broadly in line with expectations."

Although it may well have cost a good deal it does seem to have successfully attracted Ryanair and Adria. Maybe other airlines will follow them.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 17:27
  #2010 (permalink)  
 
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Unless I’m being stupid surely a large chunk of that cost will have been the purchase of the aircraft, which will remain an asset. I’d be surprised if the SEN BE branded operation in isolation racked up huge losses as recent stats show overall loads to be fairly healthy which means they can better mitigate any operating losses through ancillary car parking/rail ticket/terminal spend. The pax throughput also probably influenced The Restaurant Group coming on board sooner which means fairly decent rent coming in. There has been a great deal of advertising, although they’ve really got their act together with social media over the last year which should come at lower cost and greater accuracy than traditional methods.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 18:06
  #2011 (permalink)  
 
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Aren't the 190's leased rather than bought? Have any ATR's been purchased this year - the new 42?
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 18:38
  #2012 (permalink)  
 
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Stobart have bought 3 E195s and leased 2. It has been expected that the leased aircraft would be returned as the purchased aircraft were delivered, but right now Stobart account for five in total. The last two purchased aircraft are at Exeter with delivery of one seemingly imminent. The third aIrcraft is due in November. I think the only ATR purchased in the last year is the ATR42-600 which is Dublin based mainly for the Donegal PSO..

Last edited by Tagron; 20th Sep 2018 at 21:52. Reason: Minor addition
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 19:31
  #2013 (permalink)  
 
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I know you don't much care for speculation Tagron, particularly when it is ill informed, but Stobart have obviously purchased the E195s for a reason, and you would think utilising them in a way that helped SEN grow towards their own targets would be a priority?
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 21:46
  #2014 (permalink)  
 
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Ha ha Dave you are right, I do speculation of course but preferably in private. Seriously though I do not know what to make of the present situation either. Stobart indicated right from the purchase announcement that one intended use of those E195s was ACMI work. Now they are advertising for pilots for a Dublin-based operation (ACMI apparently) of E190s while at SEN they have enough crews to run three E195s. Developing SEN traffic has certainly been a priority but at the end of the day ACMI work will surely generate a more certain revenue stream than starting up more new routes at SEN. And it can hardly have helped that this years operational difficulties are likely to have generated costs far beyond budget.


Several posters have opined that its now "job done" at SEN with the arrival of Ryanair. I am not so sure. The Stobart routes appear to have performed very well in terms of passenger numbers but thats not necessarily a statement of satisfactory revenues. To pull the operation now before it has reached its true potential and without a replacement operator for the uncovered routes could be seen by the market as an admission of failure which could deter some.possible future operators. There are surely other "development" routes they could try in the interests of broadening the base and the diversity of the route network. Some have been rumoured. If the attitude is "well we have got Ryanair now so its all going to be OK" then I can only say best of luck with that.

So there are two conflicting scenarios. What I think is there must be negotiations ongoing with various parties that have not yet reached a conclusion. But of course the existence of negotiations is no guarantee of a satisfactory outcome.
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Old 20th Sep 2018, 22:09
  #2015 (permalink)  
 
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I concur with Tagron. I think there is still a place for Stobart/BE and there are certainly routes with potential I’ve highlighted in the past.
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 08:09
  #2016 (permalink)  
 
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I agree with the above. The Stobart routes from SEN are an interesting collection, much more so than you would expect from FR and U2. The ATR routes in particular.

I still feel that Stobart may want to “go it alone” in some way with the SEN routes. Does the flyBe franchise really add very much in terms of sales/advertising/marketing? Is it just a cost which doesn’t appeal to the more egotistical side of the management? Or maybe Stobart feel they have built their own advertising and social media teams up to a point the can operate independently, depending on Skyscanner and Google flights for clicks?

Finally, as I have said elsewhere, there’s no obvious reason they couldn’t sell via ryanair.com, like Air Europa and Air Malta do for some flights.
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 08:41
  #2017 (permalink)  
 
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I think the ATR operation and the Embraer operation are two very different things that must be appraised separately.

The E195 operation was clearly a door opener to attract carriers with A320/737 equipment by demonstrating that carefully selected routes have potential from SEN for an airline with slightly larger aircraft, but a much better sales force than Stobart/Flybe. I don't think that Stobart ever planned to operate those routes longer term. It was either a miss with the route getting scrapped or a hit so that it could be offered on a silver platter to a larger airline. After all, airports earn most of their money with passengers in the terminal, not aircraft on the apron.

The ATR operation is different as the routes are mostly to tertiary airports with no/little air services to the UK. There is no apparent airline which could take over those routes after some warming up by Stobart as most of the routes can only be served, volume-wise, by regional aircraft and there are very few airlines left in that category. So I guess Stobart will keep those routes if the overall calculation shows that getting those passengers into the terminal makes sense for Stobart with regard to its SEN airport ownership even if the routes as such do not generate a profit for the airline. The problem is that there is little room to expand that operation as the number of potential destinations that are small enough and near enough for an ATR72 is somewhat limited.
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 08:44
  #2018 (permalink)  
 
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Tagron

I agree with most of what you say. I think that some of the new STK/BE routes that were launched were marginal in terms of long term success while others showed real potential and that potential has been realised with the result that RYR and EZY have taken them on for the future. I also think that the costs of launching the routes has been much greater than anticipated and this is alluded to in the Stobart Trading Statement. The MAN route in particular may never be able to turn a profit and this was much discussed, externally and internally, at the time of its launch so I don't see much prospect of that continuing under another brand. What the SEN-MAN did prove is that there is sufficient demand within the catchment areas for the route at a certain pricing level. What surprised me was that at the same time that it became apparent the route would not continue next year they increased the prices, whereas I would have expected that a period of selling at the new prices would be allowed to elapse before pulling it, just to see if it the market would absorb the price increases.

Like you I had expected Stobart to now identify a second tranche of routes and this could still happen next summer if one of the E195s remains SEN-based, which I'm hearing is the current plan. Also I would have expected the ATR routes to continue in 2019. Both of these things really need the BE/STK franchise deal to be continued beyond June 2019 to achieve maximum effect; the brand could change to, say, Loganair but that would entail expensive awareness marketing and short term traffic loss perhaps so would not be ideal. As you suggest I think there must be negotiations going on with perhaps more than one potential partner and this is the cause of the delay in releasing the Spring 2019 timetable.

It's certainly no surprise that there is speculation regarding the outcome of all this and that is surely inevitable so the sooner something concrete is announced the better for all parties concerned.
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 10:09
  #2019 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
Like you I had expected Stobart to now identify a second tranche of routes and this could still happen next summer if one of the E195s remains SEN-based, which I'm hearing is the current plan. Also I would have expected the ATR routes to continue in 2019. Both of these things really need the BE/STK franchise deal to be continued beyond June 2019 to achieve maximum effect; the brand could change to, say, Loganair but that would entail expensive awareness marketing and short term traffic loss perhaps so would not be ideal. As you suggest I think there must be negotiations going on with perhaps more than one potential partner and this is the cause of the delay in releasing the Spring 2019 timetable.

It's certainly no surprise that there is speculation regarding the outcome of all this and that is surely inevitable so the sooner something concrete is announced the better for all parties concerned.
Pardon my ignorance but on what basis is Stobart's Aer Lingus operation? Is all economic risk with EI, so white label-style flying?

The most straightforward solution to keep the SEN operation alive would be to simply use the Aer Lingus brand with Stobard taking the commercial risk/franchising it. At least on the continent it would make relatively little difference if Aer Lingus or Flybe flies from, say, Groningen to Southend. Not sure how it would be see in the London catchment area, but IIRC, EI has offered flights from the UK to third countries in the past (from LGW?), so apparently not a big no no. Aer Lingus would be, if you ask me, a more helpful brand on the continent than Loganair. Theoretically, it could even be used - if SEN-DUB is kept and suitably timed - to offer some one-stop connections to/from DUB that otherwise are inaccessible by air (e.g. Groningen, Caen, Antwerp).
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 10:34
  #2020 (permalink)  
 
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virginblue

As far as I know the financial risk for the Aer Lingus Regional route network is largely with Stobart Air. There may be exceptions where it makes economic sense for EI to ask EIR (STK) to take on an existing route but others here perhaps have the definitive answer.

What I would say is that the original plan, in 2014, was for the SEN routes to CFR, RNS, GRQ etc. to be operated under the AER brand but for some reason this did not happen and the deal was then done between STK and BE which currently expires at the end of May 2019. Maybe whatever precluded the EIR deal going ahead four years ago does not now apply and we could see EIR branding on the SEN routes. Definitely the uncertainty over the future of these routes which currently exists needs to be resolved as quickly as possible.
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