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Brexit impact on UK Aviation

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Brexit impact on UK Aviation

Old 26th Jun 2016, 06:57
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Brexit impact on UK Aviation

I notice a thread on this appeared but has now dissappeared?

.... a new service from say Newquay to Norwich may be significan't but I would have thought a discussion on the implications of exiting the EU might also be of mild interest to some ?
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 07:27
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Bagso, more than a mild interest! Front and centre!

I'm guessing the UK government will want to leave all as is and continue to be part of an open skies arrangement with the rest of EU.

We are unlikely to go back to the days of regulations and the need for bilaterals between the UK and all other EU countries. Should the government implement a range of barriers to non UK carriers, Ryanair surely would feel the greatest impact. BA though owned by Spanish parents unlikely to be in the same boat.?

While I don't expect to see any major changes, any intervention by the government could offer some level of protection to the existing UK airlines, the number of which is now very small. Let's not forget the sheer impact of deregulation has in effect seen lots of UK airlines disappear. Though that's a debate for another day, pax are up but we now have a few dominant carriers and new start ups are now less likely than ever due to that dominance.

However, are we likely to see Heathrow expansion speeding up if Boris gets into the driving seat at number 10?
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 07:48
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Will duty free return as flying outside the eu?
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 07:56
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What we do know is that we don't know (as an example, just look at the number of topics on Prune about the what our relationship to EASA will be - anybody seen a definitive answer? and that's one issue in one industry).

Might be not much different to now, might not - who knows?

What that does mean is that the likes of EZY, RYR, etc will be putting lots of effort into contingency planning etc, which is effort that they aren't putting into growing the business. What's this uncertainty doing to investment plans?

UK govt will also be totally pre-occupied with Brexit for the foreseeable future - so just looking at topics of interest to these forums, what happens to decisions on R3/HS2, Northern Powerhouse (surely Osborne is now a dead man walking?)

Now multiply that impact across other industries - interesting times...
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 11:34
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It's certainly interesting times.

I suspect there is a good chance HS2 could be pulled, the costs are going up and up but there would still be time to save the cash.

I think Heathrow is a dead duck. Lilkey leaders will surely come from the outers not the remain. Even those sympathetic are surely not going to take on another fight that they might lose. AND to some degree its why there was a groundswell of protest in the North in respect of the EU vote. Lets not kid ourselves this was just about the EU.

I suspect quote a few took the opportunity to stick two fingers up to Westminster not specifically due to the EU but because for the first time ever they could make a difference ....unaware of the wider implications.

As for the Northern Powerhouse (see above) Osborne gone and possibly the opportunity? Whilst he wasn't everybodies cup of tea it could be argued that under him we made more progress in 3 years than we did in the previous 30. It was Osborne who got the Chinese PM here and as likely result Hainan.

Will another cabinet minister commit? Well given what's happened it should in effect be a wake up call to do even more not skulk away in Westminster !

Last edited by Bagso; 26th Jun 2016 at 11:45.
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 16:29
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Bagso...I presume you mean Heathrow's third runway is dead duck, not Heathrow per se...

The problem nationally is the risk we don't get any leadership. No one for Leave or Remain wants to be the one to negotiate Brexit as it's likely to ruin their careers.

In terms of aviation, Kenny Jacobs from Ryanair was on the BBC on Friday basically saying that following the result Ryanair will concentrate growth outside of Britain, within the remainder of the EU. Presumably, irrespective of any open skies agreement, if they want to operate services within the UK and employing staff here, they will have to set up a UK subsidiary; EZY will similarly have to set up a European-based subsidiary. They could do that relatively easily via acquisitions, but presumably at significant cost?

The north is, in the short term, probably screwed. Much of the investment delivered in recent years in the north has been as a result of EU structural funds. The Northern Powerhouse is too closely associated with the Chancellor who will most likely follow the PM in resigning; the project (including Transport for the North) is still in its infancy and so likely to be fatally wounded as a result. Significant funding would have flowed in due course - I can't see that happening now.

No-one expected Leave to win so there is no plan on what happens next, absolutely no comprehension of the scale of the task ahead and no understanding of the implications for the everyday activities of businesses operating across borders in the EU.
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 17:48
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are we likely to see Heathrow expansion speeding up if Boris gets into the driving seat at number 10?
I doubt it very much. Just as long as he doesn't resurrect his bonkers island airport idea.......
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Old 26th Jun 2016, 17:58
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Boris will not get into number 10 anytime soon, it would be suicide for the Tory part outside London! It will likely be somebody from the remain side or somebody not as vocal during the leave campaign.

It's certainly interesting times.

I suspect there is a good chance HS2 could be pulled, the costs are going up and up but there would still be time to save the cash.

I think Heathrow is a dead duck. Lilkey leaders will surely come from the outers not the remain. Even those sympathetic are surely not going to take on another fight that they might lose. AND to some degree its why there was a groundswell of protest in the North in respect of the EU vote. Lets not kid ourselves this was just about the EU.

I suspect quote a few took the opportunity to stick two fingers up to Westminster not specifically due to the EU but because for the first time ever they could make a difference ....unaware of the wider implications.

As for the Northern Powerhouse (see above) Osborne gone and possibly the opportunity? Whilst he wasn't everybodies cup of tea it could be argued that under him we made more progress in 3 years than we did in the previous 30. It was Osborne who got the Chinese PM here and as likely result Hainan.

Will another cabinet minister commit? Well given what's happened it should in effect be a wake up call to do even more not skulk away in Westminster !
Any small slip in the economy and all these projects will be top of the list to cut costs before the leave side have to hit people's income and services.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 04:03
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No one knows yet, it's way too soon to say. People just need to put their heads in a paper bag and breath. Everything is going to be OK.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 05:51
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Surely the politicians got a bloody nose precisely because we relied on EU funding rather than proper investment from our own country?

I'll say again we don't want hand outs, subsidies BUT some proper investment in infastructure on a proportional basis. Our own MPs of BOTH persuasions are accountable.

..and yes we agree S1E it will be ok ��

Last edited by Bagso; 27th Jun 2016 at 06:17.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 06:13
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Spot on S1E.

It appears there's a few sore losers though (I'm not a Brit so just an observation).
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 07:30
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One would assume bang goes the EU compensation for flight delays.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 08:14
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One would assume bang goes the EU compensation for flight delays.
Only:
a) when we actually leave
b) if we decide to drop the requirement
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 08:51
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One would assume bang goes the EU compensation for flight delays.
Only one of the airports needs to be in the EU.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:04
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Interesting discussion, but still needs to be ratified by Parliament and from what I can see it is unlikely that UK will leave now that the statements and claims made by Brexit are unravelling
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 10:47
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Don't worry, Boris will ensure there is no impact through investment in flying pigs.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 11:49
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Easyjet shares down 19.5% this morning

They'll be off to Switzerland sharpish.

I'm aware of a new 6 a/c base at a UK regional airport from May 2017, that now looks to have been put off indefinitely, to add to Ryanair's claims all UK growth suspended.

The effect looks sizable to me.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 11:55
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Which airport was that?
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 12:16
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I'm aware of a new 6 a/c base at a UK regional airport from May 2017, that now looks to have been put off indefinitely, to add to Ryanair's claims all UK growth suspended.
Hopefully not BHX ?
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 12:17
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Corporate Britain has entered prudent short-term 'wait and see' mode. Not a mindset of 'never invest here again.' Don't forget that both possible referendum outcomes were destined to produce near-term market turbulence as investors adjusted to the outcome. Currency exchange rates are fluid. They will shift again as the US faces its controversial presidential election and Euroland addresses the next tranche of the Greek bailout (and other internal issues). Remember too that market moves produce winners and losers either way. A 10% reduction in GBP exchange rates is akin to a lottery win for UK exporters. It also heads off the spectre of deflation (a government's worst nightmare).
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