EDINBURGH - 2

[CabinCrewe]

Over 8000 for Newburgh looks a pretty reasonable number on the July CAA stats, less so for the others, particularly Bradley.
Im guessing thats the explanation for almost 15% combined mainline carrier drop to NYC airports, quite large decrease for them peak summer.

[inOban]

You don't add the 12% and the 3%! The overall drop to JFK and EWR is less than 10%. However the new Delta service to GLA is presumably responsible for the larger fall to JFK.

[CabinCrewe]

Of course not, what was I thinking. 12% JFK drop and overall 9 % drop to NYC is significant enough for high summer.

[inOban]

But if we add GLA and EDI together, there is an increase on 2016, even before Norwegian.

[A350Saltire]

JFK on DL was a 767 last year, 757 this year. There have been a few cancellations in July as well I think.

[inOban]

I seem to remember this being mentioned before, and there being a response that the 767 was substituting for a 757 which had gone tech.

I was wondering whether with UA dropping GLA this winter, indeed until may, they might employ a larger a/c on the EDI route.

[GASA]

I think EDI is doing well with United all winter, Norwegian most of winter and Delta most of winter. Clearly lots of demand!!

[EIFFS]

Can only be a matter of time before Norwegian deploy a 787 to JFK or even SWF from EDI

[Flightrider]

Blimey GASA, that has to be a posting made through rose-tinted spectacles to a greater degree than I can recall in the recent past of this website! EDI-USA this winter is shaping up to be an utter bloodbath. No-one can afford to blink or cede ground to a competitor - which is why some of the cuts have fallen at GLA and not EDI - but the demand is already proving insufficient to sustain the capacity during the height of the summer given the July pax figures just released. There is plenty of capacity but an insufficient level of demand to sustain it and no hope of that situation improving into the winter.

Norwegian are also struggling like **** as their selling prices ex US are broadly the same for BFS/DUB/SNN as for EDI yet APD applies ex EDI and so the airline's nett yields are on the floor at EDI. One can argue about the inequalities of APD and all that, but the fact remains that they knew (or certainly should have known) about this before deciding to launch, as it is hardly a secret.

If you genuinely think that this is all good news, then I'm surprised. This situation has the potential to do real damage to the long-term airline perception of viability of EDI-US and Scotland-US services in general over the coming months. It is a cause for concern, not for cheerleading, surely?

[A350Saltire]

Originally Posted by inOban

I seem to remember this being mentioned before, and there being a response that the 767 was substituting for a 757 which had gone tech.

I was wondering whether with UA dropping GLA this winter, indeed until may, they might employ a larger a/c on the EDI route.

DL operated EDI-JFK with a 767 during July and August last year in place of the usual 757. This year its all 757.

[A350Saltire]

Originally Posted by Flightrider

Blimey GASA, that has to be a posting made through rose-tinted spectacles to a greater degree than I can recall in the recent past of this website! EDI-USA this winter is shaping up to be an utter bloodbath. No-one can afford to blink or cede ground to a competitor - which is why some of the cuts have fallen at GLA and not EDI - but the demand is already proving insufficient to sustain the capacity during the height of the summer given the July pax figures just released. There is plenty of capacity but an insufficient level of demand to sustain it and no hope of that situation improving into the winter.

Norwegian are also struggling like **** as their selling prices ex US are broadly the same for BFS/DUB/SNN as for EDI yet APD applies ex EDI and so the airline's nett yields are on the floor at EDI. One can argue about the inequalities of APD and all that, but the fact remains that they knew (or certainly should have known) about this before deciding to launch, as it is hardly a secret.

If you genuinely think that this is all good news, then I'm surprised. This situation has the potential to do real damage to the long-term airline perception of viability of EDI-US and Scotland-US services in general over the coming months. It is a cause for concern, not for cheerleading, surely?

I think that is overly pessimistic. There were many sold out Norwegian flights from EDI certainly during July. Surely yield would not be on the floor if flights were selling out?

UA's service from GLA-EWR has not been cut solely as a result of the increased competition at EDI as its loads have been falling recently.

[A350Saltire]

Originally Posted by EIFFS

Can only be a matter of time before Norwegian deploy a 787 to JFK or even SWF from EDI

I cant see that I am afraid. I do see Norwegian using a 787 for future US services to the likes of LA, San Francisco and Orlando like they have talked about in the past.

The only upguage on NYC services I could see is UA consolidating the double daily 757 to a 767 or 787 and perhaps Norwegian switching to A321NeoLRs in the future on its routes from EDI to SWF, BDL and PVD but again I think that is a long shot.

[willy wombat]

Is anyone able to look at the figures for the whole EDI/GLA US Eastern Seaboard market and come up with a reasonable estimate of how much Norwegian has stimulated the market vs how much they have just taken share off the existing carriers? I know that's a bit difficult as you have the effect of the new DL GLA service to consider but any educated guesses would be of interest.

[EIFFS]

Norwegian stated at the time they switched their A320 orders to A321NeoLR that it would have a lower seat cost than the 787 so I think it would be likely to replace the Max on these routes.

Whilst EDI is a very different market to LGW many of the same " can't see it, won't happen, not the market" views were aired, the rest is history.

Let's see what the spring brings

[inOban]

Originally Posted by willy wombat

Is anyone able to look at the figures for the whole EDI/GLA US Eastern Seaboard market and come up with a reasonable estimate of how much Norwegian has stimulated the market vs how much they have just taken share off the existing carriers? I know that's a bit difficult as you have the effect of the new DL GLA service to consider but any educated guesses would be of interest.

They're on the CAA website. Without using a calculator, it seems that the legacy scheduled carriers from EDI (JFK, EWR, ORD) are down about 2500. The carriers from GLA (Philadelphia, EWR, and now JFK) are up 7500 - Delta having taken some business from AA and UA. So overall TA PAX on these airlines are up even before you count in the 17500 who flew with Norwegian.

[alasdair1]

Easyjets seat load % to dlm and bjv up on last year info from caa stats may to bjv was up 20% and jul up 6%altho tom is down on the dlm route due to 1 less flight per week
Ls are re introducing dlm from edi 1 per week

[SWBKCB]

Airport destination 2017 2016
edinburgh chicago (o'hare) 8,744 8,987
edinburgh new york (jfk) 16,407 18,615
edinburgh new york (newark) 15,031 15,554
edinburgh newburgh/usa 8,860 0
edinburgh providence 4,635 0
edinburgh sanford 2,036 1,746
edinburgh toronto 8,232 7,946
edinburgh bradley intl 3,940 0
glasgow las vegas 4,110 2,265
glasgow montreal (dorval) 0 1,387
glasgow new york (jf kennedy) 8,545 0
glasgow new york (newark) 8,080 8,972
glasgow orlando 23,614 26,304
glasgow philadelphia 8,678 8,824
glasgow sanford 5,458 4,139
glasgow toronto 23,774 23,591
glasgow vancouver 2,390 2,252
total 152,534 130,582

[jensdad]

Surprised at how many Transatlantic routes there are from the Central Belt. Even more than the more heavily populated M62 belt of North Central England, by my reckoning.

[VickersVicount]

...but is the relative inbound tourism figures similar for peak summer months?

[inOban]

The vast majority are seasonal.