MANCHESTER - 9
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If Delta's motive was genuinely to pull out of MAN by stealth, what better opportunity than the time when they're able to substitute codeshare-partner Virgin onto their existing MAN-ATL route? That would be seamless … no need for the charade of launching an unwanted MAN-JFK service at considerable cost. No, Delta and Virgin will aim to make these routes work. ATL is well-established; JFK is a tougher challenge. But aside from this, why would Delta require a ruse to exit 'quietly'? When an airline decides to dump a route they just dump the route. No sideshow required. Commercial aviation is no place for sentiment.
To see what this is really all about we need to look at the big picture. Virgin's efforts to become a serious player in long-haul markets globally have resulted in heavy losses. Delta is exposed to these. What we are seeing now is a strategic withdrawal from markets which are non-core to Delta's operation in favour of UK-US routes where synergies between the two carriers can be leveraged. Note that the four long-haul routes dropped by Virgin following this announcement are just the latest … the prestigious LHR-SYD route was another recent high-profile casualty. Note that the axed routes are NOT drawn from the UK-US portfolio. The LHR slots vacated are being redeployed on UK-US routes where the combined strength of DL/VS provides a heavyweight contender in the strategic North Atlantic market.
To see what this is really all about we need to look at the big picture. Virgin's efforts to become a serious player in long-haul markets globally have resulted in heavy losses. Delta is exposed to these. What we are seeing now is a strategic withdrawal from markets which are non-core to Delta's operation in favour of UK-US routes where synergies between the two carriers can be leveraged. Note that the four long-haul routes dropped by Virgin following this announcement are just the latest … the prestigious LHR-SYD route was another recent high-profile casualty. Note that the axed routes are NOT drawn from the UK-US portfolio. The LHR slots vacated are being redeployed on UK-US routes where the combined strength of DL/VS provides a heavyweight contender in the strategic North Atlantic market.
Last edited by Shed-on-a-Pole; 4th Sep 2014 at 02:05.
Agree 100% with Shed's comments.
I further suggest the catalyst for the DL/VA moves is that LHR is full. Possibly these two airlines are coming to terms with the fact that they are not getting any more LHR slots for at least another 10-15 years, and only then if/when R3 is built. Therefore between them they need to :-
(1) squeeze as much profit out of their current LHR slot holding as possible (because they ain't getting any more !) and
(2) look beyond the LHR perimeter fence if they want to grow their alliance and their share of the UK/NAtlantic market. LGW is too close to LHR (they've both been there, done that), so they can only look elsewhere. MAN has a huge catchment, good and improving surface links, and two under-utilized runways for large swathes of the day. Maybe (just maybe) the penny is starting to drop in a few airline boardrooms !
I further suggest the catalyst for the DL/VA moves is that LHR is full. Possibly these two airlines are coming to terms with the fact that they are not getting any more LHR slots for at least another 10-15 years, and only then if/when R3 is built. Therefore between them they need to :-
(1) squeeze as much profit out of their current LHR slot holding as possible (because they ain't getting any more !) and
(2) look beyond the LHR perimeter fence if they want to grow their alliance and their share of the UK/NAtlantic market. LGW is too close to LHR (they've both been there, done that), so they can only look elsewhere. MAN has a huge catchment, good and improving surface links, and two under-utilized runways for large swathes of the day. Maybe (just maybe) the penny is starting to drop in a few airline boardrooms !
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Logohu
"The penny is starting to drop in a few boardrooms"
My goodness Logohu that is a startling observation and one that a few of us had also considered. In no particular order you should be working for the
Apparently and it must be true because its been on all media apart from the Independent there are only two airports in the UK !
They are called Heathrow and Gatwick, they are really convenient for the UK because they are situated slap bang in the middle of the country, one is near London and the other near Brighton !
Unfortunately they are now as full as a full thing so they need a new runway ! This would be really good for business and is 100% supported by all the engineers, contractors , accountants who are advising the Government and will make lots of money by building it so it must be needed.
And its really frightening because these same engineers, contractors , accountants have said if we don't build another runway 200 miles away lots of people will go and live in Europe instead because they have airports that are empty !
Personally Logohu I really hope they choose Brighton , sorry Gatwick, this is actually nearer Paris than The North of England so in terms of planning would be absolutely ideal !
There was an idea to build a new airport in the Thames, which for Northern folk would have been brilliant and dead easy to get to (estimates vary between 5 and 7 hours)! but sadly that idea has now been dropped.
But what of this place Manchester, yes I know, like me your amased arn't you, I hadn't heard of this either !
But even more incredible Manchester sits in the middle of the UK in this vast catchment area of 20m people...check the map it sits just South of a place called Scotland (pop. 5m ) They are really lucky they are are not as big as Manchester but they got a bit restless, did a bit of shouting and now look....
Anyway back to Manchester it has motorway links to all these major cities in the North of England like Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, AND get this, it EVEN has a train station, I know, exciting isn't it !
It has these two runways, three terminals and they are building these new industrial units right next door, this year lots of new airlines thought , that looks a good spot to do business and now we have a new airline called Virgin who want to use it !
Funnily enough Virgin said yesterday that rather than deploying aircraft to France and Holland and Germany like the engineers, contractors and accountants said they would, they have checked the map , scratched their head and thought hang on, why don't we use this place !
AND wait their is more good news, incredibly two more airlines are also going to join them, their the people building the new units !
So yes logohu it is a revelation, maybe word might spread ?
Ps I have Pm you
"The penny is starting to drop in a few boardrooms"
My goodness Logohu that is a startling observation and one that a few of us had also considered. In no particular order you should be working for the
- Airport Commission,
- CBI,
- Daily Telegraph
Apparently and it must be true because its been on all media apart from the Independent there are only two airports in the UK !
They are called Heathrow and Gatwick, they are really convenient for the UK because they are situated slap bang in the middle of the country, one is near London and the other near Brighton !
Unfortunately they are now as full as a full thing so they need a new runway ! This would be really good for business and is 100% supported by all the engineers, contractors , accountants who are advising the Government and will make lots of money by building it so it must be needed.
And its really frightening because these same engineers, contractors , accountants have said if we don't build another runway 200 miles away lots of people will go and live in Europe instead because they have airports that are empty !
Personally Logohu I really hope they choose Brighton , sorry Gatwick, this is actually nearer Paris than The North of England so in terms of planning would be absolutely ideal !
There was an idea to build a new airport in the Thames, which for Northern folk would have been brilliant and dead easy to get to (estimates vary between 5 and 7 hours)! but sadly that idea has now been dropped.
But what of this place Manchester, yes I know, like me your amased arn't you, I hadn't heard of this either !
But even more incredible Manchester sits in the middle of the UK in this vast catchment area of 20m people...check the map it sits just South of a place called Scotland (pop. 5m ) They are really lucky they are are not as big as Manchester but they got a bit restless, did a bit of shouting and now look....
Anyway back to Manchester it has motorway links to all these major cities in the North of England like Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, AND get this, it EVEN has a train station, I know, exciting isn't it !
It has these two runways, three terminals and they are building these new industrial units right next door, this year lots of new airlines thought , that looks a good spot to do business and now we have a new airline called Virgin who want to use it !
Funnily enough Virgin said yesterday that rather than deploying aircraft to France and Holland and Germany like the engineers, contractors and accountants said they would, they have checked the map , scratched their head and thought hang on, why don't we use this place !
AND wait their is more good news, incredibly two more airlines are also going to join them, their the people building the new units !
So yes logohu it is a revelation, maybe word might spread ?
Ps I have Pm you
Last edited by Bagso; 4th Sep 2014 at 10:50.
DL/VS
Very much a surprise this one.
DL is about the only US airline I would consider using. The ATL is very well supported & in summer can be overbooked. Used the service countless times in both classes.
Not sure how the VS will work with a single based airframe as presumably it wouldn't be interchangeable with the based beach fleet.
The last time I flew DL MAN-JFK was in 2000 it was a B763 & J class was full- I could never understand how they let the route flounder by messing with frequencies & types.
To be honest, I'd rather see them on a Boston run. DL have a fair hub at Boston-it's a relatively short sector & currently not served from MAN at all.
Delta are up against JetBlue at BOS and have been trying to bolster services from there to maintain market share.
Maybe VS/DL might add this at some point? I'd have thought BOS would have more potential than the sometimes rumoured Detroit.
None the less, the current changes are a nett gain...so half full...
DL is about the only US airline I would consider using. The ATL is very well supported & in summer can be overbooked. Used the service countless times in both classes.
Not sure how the VS will work with a single based airframe as presumably it wouldn't be interchangeable with the based beach fleet.
The last time I flew DL MAN-JFK was in 2000 it was a B763 & J class was full- I could never understand how they let the route flounder by messing with frequencies & types.
To be honest, I'd rather see them on a Boston run. DL have a fair hub at Boston-it's a relatively short sector & currently not served from MAN at all.
Delta are up against JetBlue at BOS and have been trying to bolster services from there to maintain market share.
Maybe VS/DL might add this at some point? I'd have thought BOS would have more potential than the sometimes rumoured Detroit.
None the less, the current changes are a nett gain...so half full...
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And its really frightening because these same engineers, contractors , accountants have said if we don't build another runway 200 miles away lots of people will go and live in Europe instead because they have airports that are empty !
1) LHR's huge north atlantic connectivity does impact on MAN's ability to offer direct services as there is an immense amount of discounting available over the hub.
2) Most comparable countries have a single flag carrier that dominates their main hub, the UK is much more competitive where our main hub has a based legacy which dominates to a lesser extent than EK/LH/AF/KL do at their own homes.
3) The UK hub also has a world class new facility for the main alliance of it's main German competitor (STAR's new T2). As well as SkyTeam having T4.
4) London's position as a world city and one of / the most visited destination on the planet is going to skew matters in it's favour at the expense of regional focus.
So focus :
MAN-ATL's cost base is about to fall as SRB has not exactly paid his staff generously VS taking this one on is not going to go down well in Delta towers either I suspect, however as DL open JFK yet again, expect American to walk away as the route seems unlikely to be upguaged to a B763 now US Airways and Philly are on board. I would be surprised if CLT actually returned next year but time will tell. This is all about maximising revenue and cutting costs, a focus VS have been missing of late.
In the year of the Scottish Referendum / Divorce, which as a Scot I don't even get a vote in, I keep seeing the old chippy shoulder card being played time and time again. People should try and understand business is seldom personal, if the numbers support something, it will happen. The biggest mistake politicians think is that they have "levers of power" they can pull to make things happen when most of the time, that's actually a myth.
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Good news for some , with the expansion of virgin flights from Man,even if it is swapping some with Delta. there obviously had to be some reaction from Virgin , what with all the new long haul from Tcx and Thomson and not forgetting , Virgin Holidays recently expanded and growing network of travel shops in the likes of tesco, and other large dept stores throughout the northwest, need something more than Florida and The Carribean to sell, not everyone wants to trek to London, to get to the rest of the world, on the plus side to , will this not bring more jobs to the area ?
Bagso.
We’re on the same team and (I think) we’re saying the same thing – I just used rather less words….
It’s great that airlines appear to be seeing the potential of opening or expanding at an additional UK gateway or gateways. It would be nice to think the recent return (or announcement of) more services at MAN by the likes of SV, AC, CX and now DL/VS is the start of a sustainable trend.
The point is that even if an extra runway at LHR or LGW gets the nod tomorrow, and LHR is clearly most needed, it will be 10-15 years before the first aircraft lands on it. MAN (and to a lesser extent a few others) is therefore in an excellent position to capitalize on the gridlock in the south-east by courting airlines who want/need to grow their coverage of the UK.
There’s nothing quite like a capacity crunch at your most profitable and only gateway to concentrate the mind of an airline planner. And even the most spreadsheet driven airlines tend towards the herd mentality occasionally – where one goes, others do the maths and sometimes follow. The airport’s job is to make sure they choose MAN, rather than go elsewhere.
Some airlines of course will be happy to sit it out in the waiting rooms of LGW or STN until new runway capacity at LHR becomes available. Other arguably more forward thinking airlines will see the opportunities offered by the large catchment areas of a more centrally located second gateway like MAN, many of whose constituents or visitors already choose to fly via European or Middle East hubs rather than the south east UK.
Bottom line is it’s the airlines that MAN has to convince, not the Davies Commission, CBI or Daily Telegraph (and no thanks, I don’t want to work for any of them). It’s the airlines who decide where and when they are going to fly, and who stand to make or lose the most money by doing so.
We’re on the same team and (I think) we’re saying the same thing – I just used rather less words….
It’s great that airlines appear to be seeing the potential of opening or expanding at an additional UK gateway or gateways. It would be nice to think the recent return (or announcement of) more services at MAN by the likes of SV, AC, CX and now DL/VS is the start of a sustainable trend.
The point is that even if an extra runway at LHR or LGW gets the nod tomorrow, and LHR is clearly most needed, it will be 10-15 years before the first aircraft lands on it. MAN (and to a lesser extent a few others) is therefore in an excellent position to capitalize on the gridlock in the south-east by courting airlines who want/need to grow their coverage of the UK.
There’s nothing quite like a capacity crunch at your most profitable and only gateway to concentrate the mind of an airline planner. And even the most spreadsheet driven airlines tend towards the herd mentality occasionally – where one goes, others do the maths and sometimes follow. The airport’s job is to make sure they choose MAN, rather than go elsewhere.
Some airlines of course will be happy to sit it out in the waiting rooms of LGW or STN until new runway capacity at LHR becomes available. Other arguably more forward thinking airlines will see the opportunities offered by the large catchment areas of a more centrally located second gateway like MAN, many of whose constituents or visitors already choose to fly via European or Middle East hubs rather than the south east UK.
Bottom line is it’s the airlines that MAN has to convince, not the Davies Commission, CBI or Daily Telegraph (and no thanks, I don’t want to work for any of them). It’s the airlines who decide where and when they are going to fly, and who stand to make or lose the most money by doing so.
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New LPL Boss!
First those Scousers nabbed Mario Balotelli … now it's Andrew Cornish! Liverpool Airport have a new CEO in the form of ex-Manchester Airport MD Andrew Cornish. He certainly brings plenty of insight into strategy at the competition. It seems we are in a week of big surprises ...
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Add me to the list of those slightly concerned by VS taking over ATL. I use DL and ATL for most of my NA trips at the moment and if they can keep the transfer in ATL as seamless as it is now, then fair enough. But if not then it will ruin what is easily the best way for MAN based pax to transit on their way around North America. DL have good flat seats, great crew and a great hub. I say this as someone who knows a few of the VS MAN based crew and as 'lovely' as they undoutedly are, providing top service on board would not figure high on the list of priorities for a few of them...
If only.....
I just used rather less words....
If only.....
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Changing tack ...
Further to the Ryanair discussion simmering on the Liverpool thread, just a little observation. Following a lengthy hiatus, Ryanair is finally about to start accepting delivery of new-build B738's again. I have read elsewhere that the first unit of the 175-strong order is all painted up and ready to join the fleet.
According to 'Jethro's' site, 75 of the new aircraft will replace older units from the existing fleet whilst 100 will represent fleet expansion. It will be interesting to observe how Ryanair play this … whether the imminent new deliveries will be straight fleet expansion or whether early disposal of older frames will take priority. For the last couple of years, Ryanair capacity increases at growing bases have been the result of moving frames around from one base to another. Now the opportunity again exists to grow a base with new-delivery units straight off the production line.
Let's watch how RYR play it. Obviously, plans announced for the STN programme suggest extra units needed there. And of course there are bases all across the continent which I haven't tracked closely. But at least we're moving back into an environment in which MAN could eventually gain an extra frame or two without the need to cannibalise another base. Fingers crossed!
According to 'Jethro's' site, 75 of the new aircraft will replace older units from the existing fleet whilst 100 will represent fleet expansion. It will be interesting to observe how Ryanair play this … whether the imminent new deliveries will be straight fleet expansion or whether early disposal of older frames will take priority. For the last couple of years, Ryanair capacity increases at growing bases have been the result of moving frames around from one base to another. Now the opportunity again exists to grow a base with new-delivery units straight off the production line.
Let's watch how RYR play it. Obviously, plans announced for the STN programme suggest extra units needed there. And of course there are bases all across the continent which I haven't tracked closely. But at least we're moving back into an environment in which MAN could eventually gain an extra frame or two without the need to cannibalise another base. Fingers crossed!
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Ryanair
On the LPL thread, it mentions that it currently looks like 7 based a/c for MAN for S2015. the same as this summer, but more flights. I thought we only have 6 based at present or am I out of date?
On the LPL thread, it mentions that it currently looks like 7 based a/c for MAN for S2015. the same as this summer, but more flights. I thought we only have 6 based at present or am I out of date?
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Ryanair Summer 2015 schedule
In Summary, based on June 2015, Manchester has:
7 based aircraft
35 destinations
193 return flights per week
It appears Bremen has been dropped and Reus only currently scheduled to operate in August 2015.
However new routes starting this winter and the odd frequency increase here and there results in a small overall increase in the number of weekly flights compared to the same period this year.
Still very early days but it seems at the moment in time, onwards and upwards for FR at MAN. (In reality there's little reason why they'd cut flights now but you never know, so any new routes between now and next spring should bring an even bigger bonus).
7 based aircraft
35 destinations
193 return flights per week
It appears Bremen has been dropped and Reus only currently scheduled to operate in August 2015.
However new routes starting this winter and the odd frequency increase here and there results in a small overall increase in the number of weekly flights compared to the same period this year.
Still very early days but it seems at the moment in time, onwards and upwards for FR at MAN. (In reality there's little reason why they'd cut flights now but you never know, so any new routes between now and next spring should bring an even bigger bonus).
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LAX LHR
I kind of hope so. The schedule is no shambles by any means, it looks as if it makes sense and clearly showing 7 a/c at the moment.
The only thing is that it looks very peaky. MAN has always been quite peaky for FR flights (I think because they fly a lot of non-based aircraft in from Europe around the same time) but looks particularly so next year. There's some quite large gaps in the day where not a lot happens and then other times where they have maybe 10+ flights in an hour.
I kind of hope so. The schedule is no shambles by any means, it looks as if it makes sense and clearly showing 7 a/c at the moment.
The only thing is that it looks very peaky. MAN has always been quite peaky for FR flights (I think because they fly a lot of non-based aircraft in from Europe around the same time) but looks particularly so next year. There's some quite large gaps in the day where not a lot happens and then other times where they have maybe 10+ flights in an hour.
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They appear to be doing so Bagso. Im also sure I had seen the flybe/TCX transfers were still going?
In terms of growth from the low costs, one that appears not to be growing is Norwegian. Next summers schedules have been put on the site, Stavanger/Stockholm continue at a measly 2 weekly each, and now Oslo has intermittent periods of 2 weekly too.
Seems the North West is just one market Norwegian don't seem to be able to crack, or are reluctant to do so.
In terms of growth from the low costs, one that appears not to be growing is Norwegian. Next summers schedules have been put on the site, Stavanger/Stockholm continue at a measly 2 weekly each, and now Oslo has intermittent periods of 2 weekly too.
Seems the North West is just one market Norwegian don't seem to be able to crack, or are reluctant to do so.
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I will not ignore the fact that Norwegian has been training Virgin Atlantic's 787 pilots the last months. Maybe more information has flown between VS and DY?
Last edited by LN-KGL; 4th Sep 2014 at 22:15.