MANCHESTER - 9

[MClayton]

Yes eggc I meant that, didn't exactly word it correctly

[BDLBOS]

Bagso, why do you always write a whole life history when your point can be made simply in one line? Still waiting for my crayons too!!

[hammerb32]

Bagso has a very good point, this is the first I've heard of it, it is the main/only route from the south to the airport, a huge amount of MANs catchment area. I am almost worried to ask but have MAN been talking about in on twitter etc?

[MANFOD]

After the cut-backs by UA & AA for part of the winter, I notice that CLT is not bookable on the US Air web site for dates tried in May & June next year. (PHL is)
Do we read anything into this, or are they still deciding whether to resume the route and if so when? I had a feeling it was suggested the route would restart earlier and may be year round but I could be wrong.

As LAX LHR mentions, ORD is showing as a B757 this winter until the suspension, but it's also a 757 when the service restarts although I guess that could change.

[eggc]

The closure is all over local media, Radio and Newspapers. Its been planned and know for months. Personally I think MAN has done a good a job as possible to get this out there.

If your coming from the Manchester direction you can actually get to the airport without diversion, its only the other direction where you have to come off one junction early, so the diversion is short and with it being Sat and Sun it should be OK missing rush hours. Fuss about nothing IMO.

As for Twitter, think they have passed on banging that drum...

Manchester Airport @manairport · 22h Please remember as of tomorrow evening there will be a full closure of the M56 Jct 6-5 until Monday morning: http://ow.ly/zMG6M

Manchester Airport @manairport · Jul 28 This weekend the Highways Agency is carrying out essential works on & around the main routes into Manchester Airport http://ow.ly/zEQK1

Retweeted by Manchester Airport
Highways Agency @HAnews_nwest · Jul 28
Man Airport affected by motorway closure this weekend. Eastbound M56 drivers use J.6 at Hale instead. Tell friends! http://ow.ly/zEoyK

Retweeted by Manchester Airport
GMP Mcr Airport @GMPMcrAirport · Jul 27
Travelling to @manairport next weekend? There is full weekend closure of the M56 between J5 & J6 scheduled for 1st - 4th August. PC Fi Jay


It is also plastered all over the home page of the website, so if people don't know about it can't say MAN hasn't tried !

[ATNotts]

Seems the MAN-USA market is well down this winter, but, with several Euro cuts, at least its not indicative the just the MAN market, and at least its only Jan-Mar. DUB looses all AA service (not including US to PHL) for the whole winter with JFK being cut too.

Looking as an "outsider" it seams to me that certainly for winter, MAN has reached it's level as regards capacity to major US hubs (not pure leisure destinations) and capacity may be being trimmed down to more economic levels which the carriers hope will raise yields.

The shear amount of capacity eastwards via the gulf may also result somewhere down the line in some retrenchment, although as the requirement for the ME3 to make profits (given their ownerships) is probably less than for US carriers.

Either way, the apparent weakness doesn't bode so well for other airports aspiring for additional / new links to the US of A.

[Bagso]

........my ire was actually more directed at the Highways Agency they in turn actually supply content and feed to the BBC travel units both at a national and regional level.

They ALSO supply feed to airlines .

It may well have been mentioned hopefully by now and will continue to be so over the week end...

but if you have a look at their home page whilst their are references to closures over the week end on A38, A1, M27 et al there is absolutely bugger all
(as at 10am Friday) about the main junction outside the 3rd largest airport in the UK on one of the busiest week ends of the year !

Yes granted it is on the Airport home page AND if you alight on the page when the large banner appears at the top that is great, BUT stunningly it appears as part of three rolling adverts combined with "summer sun" and the "escape lounge", given the attention span of your average joe that is 1 in 3 chance that it will be missed !

Users alight on a page and target the link they need they will not wait around for a banner to roll round every 20 seconds !

It should be a fixed message sorry that is standard stuff !

There is a permanent line reference to the work but it is barely visible.

Hopefully the airlines/tour operators have advised customers.

2 years back I was warned about congestion IN LONDON around the Olympics "ON THE M56 MATRIX, again controlled by the H.A.
this week those same signs suggested " Take a break at next services", perhaps M56 Full closure 1/8 - 4/8 was more appropriate

AND as I said my main point was timing, I do appreciate it has to be done but undertaking the work on just about the worst week end of the year seems crazy.

Even the airport spokesman in today's MEN has suggested the airport is at its "Summer peak".... there were 4 mile tail backs last week end and the mway was not fully closed !

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Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southampton are going up for sale, no doubt an opportunity for MAG !

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Re AA.... will the market still be there when they comeback ?

Maybe somebody s/b on phone to EK Re

Dubai - Manchester - Chicago
Or
Dubai - Manchester - CLT

...there is clearly a market !

FlyNas, AA, USAir....... maybe a few of us were right on the mood music !

[chinapattern]

After the cut-backs by UA & AA for part of the winter, I notice that CLT is not bookable on the US Air web site for dates tried in May & June next year.

Can see US/AA dropping MAN-CLT in favour of the new LHR-CLT route they are planning with the slots acquired from Cyprus Airways.

[GavinC]

M56

Closures are often deliberately timed to be at the weekend and in the summer as traffic flows are lower due to it not being a working day and more people are away in the summer.


Ironic I know.....


Based on the same principle, you'll see several day closures of road and rail at both Christmas and Easter.

[BasilBush]

I disagree with Atnotts on this. CAA stats show substantial unfulfilled demand to the US from/to MAN's catchment. New York alone has 250,000 pax from the region who travel via LHR or other indirect routings. There are a lot of other destinations where MAN is not currently meeting the demand, and which could be served by better frequencies on our existing US gateway hubs.

What disappoints me about MAN is that US routes don't seem to develop much once they are started. After 25 years (or whatever), ORD is still only served once daily at best. Schedule depth - or lack of it - is perhaps more of an issue at MAN rather than the range of destinations. I travel to/from ORD quite often and frankly a once daily departure back to MAN at 18.00 isn't much use if you have an afternoon meeting in the city. As a result the route loses a lot of potential high yield J class traffic, with such pax having to route via LHR on a 21.00 flight or whatever. This might explain why I've rarely seen the J cabin on a 767 more than half full, despite AA's fondness for doling out free upgrades (SWUs) to its top tier frequent fliers.

My own view is that there is often too great a focus (including on this forum) on new destinations, when perhaps MAN would capture a better share of long haul traffic - especially higher yielding traffic - by improved frequency on existing routes, especially those to US hubs.

[Bagso]

Quite right Basil

UK's Manchester airport to start flights to Hong Kong | Reuters

Great news that MAN are chasing new routes but surely there should be meetings going on as we speak re news from last 48hours.

[LAX_LHR]

Regarding AA MAN-ORD,

The short suspension is due to a large scale maintence and paint project which is going on over winter.
This combined with the B757 starting to get pulled away from TATL ops means some routes have to be trimmed back.

This is a 1 winter programme only (so no suspension planned next winter), and MAN is relatively strong for AA hence the Jan-Mar suspension, which are the very low travel months, rather than full winter like DUB/DUS etc are seeing.

[Skipness One Echo]

This is a 1 winter programme only (so no suspension planned next winter), and MAN is relatively strong for AA hence the Jan-Mar suspension, which are the very low travel months, rather than full winter like DUB/DUS etc are seeing.

Unless LAX-LHR works for American Airlines the brutal truth is that we can have no idea what their intentions are for next winter. The painting is almost complete, unlike the winglet installation, the program in question is a cabin refresh. I'd be careful not to minismise the damage here as AA have dropped the ball here too often before. B757s fuel stopping in winter etc. What we'd be looking to see in my view is something like an A330-200 on Chicago and AA/US consolidating slightly to get what was a very strong route back up to speed. When BMI launched ORD, AA took a huge hit as their offering to market wasn't up to scratch. Maybe I'm biased but this route's been in place most of my life and I sometimes get the feeling they don't really know what they want to do with it. This is also an opportuity to test whether business traffic will come back after a seasonal drop in service and see if they can hold onto their frequent fliers via another routing, ideally over PHL or JFK direct from MAN.

[j636]

Lax

Cut the crap here, maintenance or not if MAN was profitable it wouldn't be cut over that period. As for next year AA do not know what is happening never mind you.

The key difference between MAN and DUB/DUS is at these airports there is intense competition between carriers on routes which are being cut something which is not seen at MAN.

BTW comparing with DUB, last year was the first winter season in a while AA had a presence as JFK was resumed the previous summer and it was a very low freq.

Don't dress it up, time for a reality check!

[Ian Brooks]

Don`t think the A330 fleet is transferable from US Airlines points so will not be seen on AA sectors for a while from what I`m told, same problem
problem Delta/Northwest had as mixed fleets don`t work to well.
The 757s and some of the 763 are getting quite long in the tooth now, the 757 are getting a lot of flack on the ORD
and until the replacements come through it`s not going to be easy and as we know LHR is always going to win over anywhere else in Europe for
AA

Ian

[LAX_LHR]

Oh dear, seem to have ruffled a few feathers from such a simple comment.

I think some people need to take a chill pill, this thread is for a passing hobby, stop taking it so seriously

[OltonPete]

ORD/IAD

Now I have absolutely no access to yields and I didn't monitor the individual websites during the period re fares but here are the CAA stats for passenger figures and number of rotations. I have used various websites for seating plans. I realise that not all flights were due to operate daily but Atlanta has been upgraded this coming winter and based on these figures they obviously know a lot we don't.

Atlanta

January....8183 pax...average 191 pax...load factor...84%....only 44 flights - max 62
February...6843 pax...average 180 pax.................80%....only 38 flights - max 56
March......8506 pax...average 193 pax.................86%....only 44 flights - max 62

Chicago

January....6569 pax...average 126 pax...load factor...72%....only 52 flights - max 62
February...4484 pax...average 102 pax.................58%....only 44 flights - max 56
March......7672 pax...average 132 pax.................75%....only 58 flights - max 62


New York - JFK

January....7927 pax...average 142 pax...load factor...80%....only 56 flights - max 62
February...7567 pax...average 146 pax.................83%....only 52 flights - max 56
March......9439 pax...average 152 pax.................87%.........62 flights - max 62

New York - Newark

January....9307 pax...average 150 pax...load factor...89%.........62 flights - max 62
February...8513 pax...average 152 pax.................90%.........56 flights - max 56
March......9493 pax...average 153 pax.................91%.........62 flights - max 62

Philadelphia

January...11140 pax...average 180 pax...load factor...71%.........62 flights - max 62
February...9537 pax...average 170 pax.................68%.........56 flights - max 56
March.....11910 pax...average 192 pax.................76%.........62 flights - max 62

Washington

January....4725 pax...average 113 pax...load factor...67%....only 42 flights
February...3028 pax...average 101 pax.................60%....only 30 flights
March......6886 pax...average 128 pax.................75%....only 54 flights

All that I would say is that in this day and age with an ageing aircraft on the the ORD and IAD are these figures are going to be acceptable? It is also worth noting the PHL figures are dipping as well.

MANFOD

Here are the CAA June 2014 figures with the new Charlotte operating - hardly a quiet month for Air Travel and they are moderate to say the least.

Atlanta...... 11498 down 18% from 14058
Chicago......11148 flat
JFK............ 9440 down 3% from 9778
Newark....... 8878 down 5% from 9374
PHL.......... 11964 down 17% from 14386 - Charlotte was 7664 pax
Washington. 8381 down 9% from 9223.

Now BHX, EDI & GLA Newark were all down as was most of the Heathrow US flights so something more widespread was happening here but it seems that extra Charlotte really put a spanner in the works.

Pete

[Logohu]

Ref AA/UA seasonal reductions. Jan-Mar is low season so if essential maintenance is really the reason then it's probably the best time for them to cutback on services and get it done. Let's face it, they have to somehow fill all those empty Y-class seats out of LHR in the low season as well. They can't reduce frequencies there as they will be eaten alive by BA, not to mention risk losing those precious slots. So the regions are a much easier cut for them, unpleasant as that may be for the airports on the receiving end.

These two, and the US legacies generally, have been enjoying unusually good profits lately due in part to them using ageing equipment for longer than they perhaps originally planned - thanks to Mr Boeing and his 787 delays for that - not to mention keeping a much tighter control of capacity than they did previously. As a result their economy fares from the regions can be quite eye-watering at times too. But they are businesses and are in it for the bottom line, so the longer they can prolong the status quo the happier their shareholders will be, if not their customers.

I think S1E is right when he says AA don't really seem to know what to do with MAN-ORD, and considering the effort that went into getting the route started back in the late-80s. They've pulled a lot of transatlantic service out of ORD over the years, but the fact MAN has always survived means it must be profitable. But the chopping and changing between 767s and 757s and fiddling with the frequency in recent years is a cause for concern. It will be interesting to see what they do next year.

Perhaps Bagso is right....a dose of the MEB3 on transatlantic could be just the wake up call one or two airlines might need. Given the choice between a shiny 77W with all the bells and whistles, or a clapped out 757 with possibly a free stopover in Bangor in February, I know which option I'd be choosing Though if this ever became a serious possibility I've no doubt they'd pull out all the stops to ensure it never sees the light of day.

[MANFOD]

OltonPete, thanks again for your efforts.

Re. the 3 winter months Jan-Mar, and purely based on LFs (as like you I've no knowledge of fares or yields), my reaction is that the 2 New York routes and Atlanta are actually not bad at all. ORD, IAD and PHL are a different matter, and it's not hard to see why the first two have been suspended for 12 and 9 weeks respectively this coming winter.

As for June, the LFs if all flights operated would be:

ATL 85%

ORD 85%

JFK 89%

EWR 88%

IAD 83%

PHL 79%

However, I think there may have been the odd cancellation due tech problems (United?) and even weather in the US, but I'm not sure.

If 60 flights operated to/from CLT, the average was 128, not disastrous for a new route on a 757.

No doubt CLT has caused some dilution, mainly it would seem on PHL. The latter is a concern, as for several years when the A333 operated, it was often reportedly full during the summer. Whether we'll see either of the 2 US routes next summer is in my view questionable, not least because of what may result from the AA/US merger.

That said, the other 5 routes in June are pretty reasonable in terms of LFs, despite the percentage drops from 2013.

I wonder whether the Dublin effect of US pre-clearance and no APD is having just a marginal or a more significant impact on the non-stop flights.

[BasilBush]

Regarding CLT and PHL, both routes are regularly showing good availability for mileage redemptions in J class (especially CLT, which seems wide open). This is particularly evident at the AA MileSaaver rates, which are otherwise hard to find on transatlantics. This can't be a good sign in terms of overall route yields.