BELFAST AIRPORT INTERNATIONAL
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airport66
A while back some kind of top10 was drawn up of where N ireland people fly to the most and Dubai was on it 95000 people a year flew to this destination, would that be enough to sustain such a route directly or would they need to try and expand it further to make it sustainable.
Join Date: Oct 2011
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Y Passengers are not the issue but First and Business passengers as well as cargo.
NCL may not be such a good comparison as it's not exactly operating with wonderful loads. Even if it was loss making it's a route EK would never drop for strategic reasons, if they leave somebody else will arrive however this is not an issue for BFS.
A new Sales Executives based in BFS was hired by EK a few weeks ago to increase numbers on existing services at DUB and I expect via UK points.
NCL may not be such a good comparison as it's not exactly operating with wonderful loads. Even if it was loss making it's a route EK would never drop for strategic reasons, if they leave somebody else will arrive however this is not an issue for BFS.
A new Sales Executives based in BFS was hired by EK a few weeks ago to increase numbers on existing services at DUB and I expect via UK points.
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Indeed EI-A330-300!
And you can glibly satisfy yourself with that dismissal of what may or may not be feasible for Emirates and others out of BFS.
And you can glibly satisfy yourself with that dismissal of what may or may not be feasible for Emirates and others out of BFS.
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As much chance as ORK or SNN getting a DXB flight. NI airports have probably had there day for long haul flights. More likely to get more short haul European routes into hubs. Maybe Westjet or Europeairpost might work to Canada but it's like the corner shop trying to compete with a tescos superstore BHD /BFS vs DUB.
In fact could West jet operate from BHD? Probably not but what would the limits be for BHD for aircraft say 319/320 736 735 types
In fact could West jet operate from BHD? Probably not but what would the limits be for BHD for aircraft say 319/320 736 735 types
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While EK might seem a long shot, we shouldn't be too quick to dismiss the possibility...EK seem to be able to find the customers where others struggle, and as mentioned above, they are running from reasonably close airports all over the UK. If NCL, MAN, BHX and GLA can all co-exist, maybe EK could make BFS work. Add in the fact that they are about to place an order for either 787-10s or A359s, and they may have a better sized aircraft to consider opening BFS. It's great to see the new MD at BFS pushing for new routes...with VS coming in (albeit in a small way) and UA now more secure, maybe the shoots of recovery are beginning to show. And there is a lot of business in NI making its presence felt all over the globe.
But I do wonder why our friends from south of the border seem so keen to talk BFS down?
But I do wonder why our friends from south of the border seem so keen to talk BFS down?
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LAX_LHR thanks for the correction on Newcastle frequency.
As for this guy:
I don't follow this logic... you say that Newcastle has weak demand, so Emirates won't drop it because then some other airline would be able to come in and lose money on it instead? ???
Emirates are one of the smartest airlines on this Earth. If a route can't sustain them, it won't sustain Etihad or Qatar by far. And unlike that pair, Emirates has to make money; it provides a dividend back to the Dubai government.
As for this guy:
NCL may not be such a good comparison as it's not exactly operating with wonderful loads. Even if it was loss making it's a route EK would never drop for strategic reasons, if they leave somebody else will arrive however this is not an issue for BFS.
Emirates are one of the smartest airlines on this Earth. If a route can't sustain them, it won't sustain Etihad or Qatar by far. And unlike that pair, Emirates has to make money; it provides a dividend back to the Dubai government.
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why daily from the start? They could start with say 3x weekly and build it up, limiting losses as opposed to going daily from day 1. The ME3 are going to have to find somewhere to put all the aircraft they have on order.
TB
TB
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3 times weekly routes etc are often hard to coordinate as you need another similar route to operate using the aircraft the rest of the week. Not unheard of for EK but increasingly less common. Don't see it for BFS. Will be all or nothing.
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Meanwhile Dublin has four dailies to the UAE and has Qatar coming on-stream too. The ME3 make their own market.
El Bunto,
in relation to that above statement, particularly 'has Qatar coming on stream too'. when was this announced?? I wasn't aware of this...
in relation to the debate about whether a middle eastern route is viable ex Belfast; it is not simply a case of whether such a route is viable, it is the case of Belfast competing on a world stage for the service of Emirates or equivalent.
NI has struggled to make a routes viable to Rome, Milan, Berlin, Gdansk, Leeds Bradford (ex BFS), Budapest, Venice etc. etc. and these are certainly much lower risk. I fail to see how these airlines will look at Belfast for a middle eastern route . Also considering a perfectly good alternative down the road that offers;
1. Lower APD
2. Significant transatlantic connectivity and US pre clearance
3. And an airport authority that has deep pockets ...
Furthermore, the airport MD has said that such a route will not happen anytime soon. Sorry to put a dampener on this discussion.
El Bunto,
in relation to that above statement, particularly 'has Qatar coming on stream too'. when was this announced?? I wasn't aware of this...
in relation to the debate about whether a middle eastern route is viable ex Belfast; it is not simply a case of whether such a route is viable, it is the case of Belfast competing on a world stage for the service of Emirates or equivalent.
NI has struggled to make a routes viable to Rome, Milan, Berlin, Gdansk, Leeds Bradford (ex BFS), Budapest, Venice etc. etc. and these are certainly much lower risk. I fail to see how these airlines will look at Belfast for a middle eastern route . Also considering a perfectly good alternative down the road that offers;
1. Lower APD
2. Significant transatlantic connectivity and US pre clearance
3. And an airport authority that has deep pockets ...
Furthermore, the airport MD has said that such a route will not happen anytime soon. Sorry to put a dampener on this discussion.
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Not heard, hopefully. They need to bring BCN back because VY's cheapest seats are selling out next summer rather rapidly, I would imagine because its a lot cheaper than flying to REU.
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I assume that EZY will be putting their early summer flights on sale next month and expect BCN to start with three weekly increasing to four in peak season.
Wonder if they will introduce any new destinations ??
Wonder if they will introduce any new destinations ??
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"But I do wonder why our friends from south of the border seem so keen to talk BFS down? "
DUB will probably get close to 25 million pax this year. There's no logical reason for anyone to be talking anyone down.
FWIW, I think EK will open BFS, and sooner than we think. Once they've built out DUB to whatever target they have in mind, the next logical thing is to look to the next largest city - and particularly when a lot of traffic on the DUB service is coming from the North anyway.
DUB's relative success can be viewed in fact as an advantage to Belfast - it opens airline's eyes to opportunities on this Island that they may not have otherwise envisaged. I'd see Air Canada and Westjet in a similar vain to EK - BFS cant be far away from their thoughts either.
DUB will probably get close to 25 million pax this year. There's no logical reason for anyone to be talking anyone down.
FWIW, I think EK will open BFS, and sooner than we think. Once they've built out DUB to whatever target they have in mind, the next logical thing is to look to the next largest city - and particularly when a lot of traffic on the DUB service is coming from the North anyway.
DUB's relative success can be viewed in fact as an advantage to Belfast - it opens airline's eyes to opportunities on this Island that they may not have otherwise envisaged. I'd see Air Canada and Westjet in a similar vain to EK - BFS cant be far away from their thoughts either.
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I can remember talking to a very wise old lady in the west of Ireland explaining her thoughts about why there was so much objections in Dublin to an airport opening in Knock and all the foggy boggy airstrip on a hillside jibes. The last thing anyone wants to see in DUB is anyone believing they can have a viable airport anywhere else on the island. Its something similar to the inner M25 mentality - everything else is a foggy wasteland, unworthy of anything except a roadway to London.
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@justanotherloser
Pretty much echoes much of what I was thinking, which is why I'm bewildered about some dismissing it straight away.
I've assumed that they must be more knowledgable than I am, being just an engineer / PPL / fairly frequent NI traveller
With Emirates wanting to start 100 new cities in the next decade (and EK being EK who's to say that they won't meet or exceed that target?), do we really think that BFS won't be one of them?
What other unserved UK cities do we think they would look at before Belfast? Given that a mid east flight ex BFS would be exempt from APD?
(Those are genuine questions by the way)
As someone said all those new aircraft have to fly somewhere.
Will it happen in the next couple of years? Maybe not. But then again, maybe it will (BFS management said it would not happen this year if I remember correctly).
I also fail to see why NCL isn't a reasonable comparison:
- Second tier UK city
- Annual passenger demand about two thirds that of Belfast
- Has to compete with no less than THREE major airports within reasonable driving distance (going with the opinion held by some that 2 or more hours' drive is "just down the road"), all with significant ME3 presence.
- UA may be struggling there, albeit in a first limited season of operation?
- Yet EK appear to be well established and doing well (up 13% in July), one poster on the NCL thread (possibly optimistically) entertaining the possibility of a second daily?
As I say, all genuine questions
I've assumed that they must be more knowledgable than I am, being just an engineer / PPL / fairly frequent NI traveller
With Emirates wanting to start 100 new cities in the next decade (and EK being EK who's to say that they won't meet or exceed that target?), do we really think that BFS won't be one of them?
What other unserved UK cities do we think they would look at before Belfast? Given that a mid east flight ex BFS would be exempt from APD?
(Those are genuine questions by the way)
As someone said all those new aircraft have to fly somewhere.
Will it happen in the next couple of years? Maybe not. But then again, maybe it will (BFS management said it would not happen this year if I remember correctly).
I also fail to see why NCL isn't a reasonable comparison:
- Second tier UK city
- Annual passenger demand about two thirds that of Belfast
- Has to compete with no less than THREE major airports within reasonable driving distance (going with the opinion held by some that 2 or more hours' drive is "just down the road"), all with significant ME3 presence.
- UA may be struggling there, albeit in a first limited season of operation?
- Yet EK appear to be well established and doing well (up 13% in July), one poster on the NCL thread (possibly optimistically) entertaining the possibility of a second daily?
As I say, all genuine questions
Last edited by madgav; 19th Aug 2015 at 14:12.
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Also Belfast is bigger population wise than Newcastle. As has been mentioned before, any such route doesn't have to suddenly be daily or more, even 2 or 3 rotations a week is a starting point. Its only the same as the Newark route, last winter it ceased, this winter it will operate, there are many here in NI who rubbish the route on the grounds its too expensive before even checking the price. To me its a matter of principle, of trying to support local business, aviation, jobs etc. I do think BFS will get there, albeit slowly with more long haul, they seem to have a more forward looking attitude of late.