Aer Lingus - 6

[Charlie Roy]

Government waits for formal offer from Ryanair for Aer Lingus - RT News

...the Government will take into consideration when considering selling its share what is best for passengers, what is best for the taxpayer in terms of the price they get, what is best for the economy in terms of competitiveness and the views of the regulatory authorities to any bid.

Minister Varadkar also said that continued access to London's Heathrow will be considered when looking at any offer.

Willie Walsh said he was not interested in acquiring Aer Lingus, or the Government's 25% stake in the airline.

He also said there was probably "some merit" to Ryanair's argument that it should now be allowed to acquire Aer Lingus.

Scenario:

1. Government sells Aer Lingus stake to Ryanair with the condition that a certain number of Heathrow slots be used by them to fly to Ireland
2. British Airways buys the Heathrow slots from Ryanair and honour the condition to use them to operate a certain number of Heathrow to Ireland (DUB/ORK/SNN) flights
3. Aer Lingus Regional franchise deal finishes, Aer Arann re-emerge as an airline, Ryanair/Aer Lingus do not compete with them on certain routes for say 5 years (one of the conditions of buying the government stake in Aer Lingus)
4. Aer Lingus brand exists alongside Ryanair for 5 years before disappearing

[EI-BUD]

Ryanair/Aer Lingus do not compete with them on certain routes

CharlieRoy, the whole scenario is scary, the above would be most unlikely given that the deregulated market etc, though it is ironic that Ryanair owes its survival to a similar 5 year restriction on Aer Lingus competing with them on their routes.

BA's support of Ryanair investment is an interesting development. Willie Walsh had said before that given the state of the pension deficit in Aer Lingus he wouldnt be interesting in them pursuing it.

Things can change very quickly that is one thing true in the aviation industry. So who knows?

EI-BUD

[mart901]

So heres one for the employment law specialists among you. Lets just say hypothetically FR take over EI. Where does that put the trade unions in EI? Would MOL ever be dictated to or would they be on strike for ever more or could FR's non-union acceptance policy over ride peoples trade union affiliation?

[Just a spotter]

If history is any guide (and I'm basing this on the Buzz experience), then, IMHO, the most likely outcome should FR purchase EI is that within 3-6 months there is an industrial relations stand off with the newly acquired firm and within 18-24 month EI ceases to exist.

But, that is nothing more than my own personal opinion based on my own assessment of the situation and reference to the only available prior historical data.

How FR would react to achieving a near monopoly position on short haul air links into and out of the State can only be a matter of speculation.

JAS

[racedo]

So heres one for the employment law specialists among you. Lets just say hypothetically FR take over EI. Where does that put the trade unions in EI? Would MOL ever be dictated to or would they be on strike for ever more or could FR's non-union acceptance policy over ride peoples trade union affiliation?

Equally possible to run the companys as completely separate companys........ BA Gatwick / Heathrow T&Cs are a prime example.

Aer Lingus long haul and on city main airport routes and Ryanair on everything else with Ryanair being used as a feeder service for LH Trans Atlantic.

Big plus is that Aer Lingus gets volume for TA flights with Customs and Immigration clearance done in Ireland, volumes drops TA price and not so worried about covering huge Dublin overhead. As flights from Ireland then Irish govt eliminates travel taxes for everybody.

Ryanair takes the people to Ireland but as people book separate onward flights then no huge travel taxes to EU Govts.

[Skipness One Echo]

Equally possible to run the companys as completely separate companys........ BA Gatwick / Heathrow T&Cs are a prime example.

Indeed with Mixed Fleet at LHR now on less than LGW(!)

Aer Lingus long haul and on city main airport routes and Ryanair on everything else with Ryanair being used as a feeder service for LH Trans Atlantic.

NOBODY on God's Earth is going to fly Ryanair to connect to Aer Lingus out of Dublin on long haul. The only thing worse than a normal short haul connection at the end of an overnight transatlantic flight would be if it were with Ryanair. In all seriousness, even on price, I think that's a step too far. MOL does NOT do complexity, one aircraft type, no sophisticated booking, cheap as chips, no connections. The FR culture would get f***ed up overnight the day they did that. They dismantled Buzz for a good reason, Aer Lingus in the hands of Ryanair would be....er Ryanair in a year. A for long haul, well in all seriousness it's only six aircraft and one on lease to United. The real win win would be decreased competition and massively increased yields out of Ireland.
Eire is not nearly as competitve as London, hence this is not like BA buying out BMI.

[Shamrock350]

Etihad pledges to hold on to Aer Lingus stake

Etihad CEO says "we are not selling" and backs the current management team and strategy at Aer Lingus

Etihad investments are strategic and long term.

In talks with Aer Lingus about the possibility of code sharing.

Etihad pledges to hold on to Aer Lingus stake - FT.com

[Jack1985]

Traffic Statistics for June 2012

Dublin & London, 5 July 2012: Aer Lingus Group plc (“Aer Lingus”), today announced traffic statistics for the month of June 2012.

• Aer Lingus’ flown passenger load factor in June 2012 increased by 3.8 points on June 2011 to 82.6%.
  
• Short haul flown load factor was 78.1%, an increase of 1.4 points on June 2011, with capacity in line with the prior year.
  
• Long haul flown load factor was 92.4%, an increase of 9.0 points on June 2011, with capacity increasing by 0.1%.
  
• Total flown passenger numbers, including Aer Lingus Regional operations, increased by 4.8% in June 2012.
  
• Aer Lingus’ total flown passenger numbers in June 2012 were 918,000, an increase of 2.0% compared to June 2011.
  
• Short haul flown passengers in June 2012 were 819,000, an increase of 0.1% on June 2011, while long haul flown passengers in June 2012 were 99,000, an increase of 12.5% on June 2011.
  
• Aer Lingus Regional’s total flown passenger numbers in June 2012 were 95,000, an increase of 41.8% compared to June 2011.

So both Aer Lingus Regional and Long Haul operations continue to go from strength to strength, a strong set of results from Aer Lingus today.

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Very impressive long haul LF. Can't wait to see there plans for summer 2013 and if the A332 operating for United comes back to DUB to increase ORD and others like was stated in May or will they lease an A330.

Also good to see that Aer Lingus are one of the airlines scrapping last minute debit surcharges.

[ayroplain]

NOBODY on God's Earth is going to fly Ryanair to connect to Aer Lingus out of Dublin on long haul

Have to agree with this. FR makes it clear that it is a “point to point” airline and MOL has consistently expressed his desire to do away with hold baggage and this is reflected in the charges. Who is going to fly longhaul with just carry-on? This is not to denigrate Ryanair who are a lifesaver for me and 75m other passengers but, for this to happen, there would have to be a complete change of mindset.

I also don’t go along with this theory that hordes of people in the UK and/or Europe will want to fly to the US through Dublin just because of the US Clearance facility. The vast majority of people prefer direct flights from their own cities. Even if their ultimate destination in US is not served by a direct flight are they really going to want to fly a third leg to/from DUB. I don’t think so.

I still can’t understand why FR would want take onboard EI and all its baggage. Apart from the pensions problem, from day one they would be up against “outraged and angry” trade unions and staff whose resentment is abundantly clear and who would do all in their power to create agro every single step of the way. In an era when airlines have to make instant decisions and changes as things happen (and which MOL is steeped in) can he afford to wait 12 months or longer before change is “agreed” around a table.

Maybe he has a plan for all that in which case I’d love to hear it.

[IrishFlyer2013]

EI returns to CPH!

Aer Lingus to operate daily flights between DUB & CPH from the 28 of October.

[Jamie2k9]

Up aginst SK and DY will be intresting. Both have slightly reduced CPH this winter. In other news Dublin-Bordeaux is now year round. Will be 2 weekly.

[mart901]

Do we have a date for the Belfast announcement?

[PPRuNeUser0176]

2001......2004.........2007........2012.......will we be posting the same here in lets say around 2015?

History suggests that DUB-CPH hasn't worked for EI and since it was dropped in 2007 DY took it up in 2009 so compitation is worse than ever...Currently 22 weekly flights planned for 2012/13 season including EI.

If EI have any sort of change of lasting it will need to be dropped to 3/4 weekly. DY can only manage 2 weekly in winter and 3 in summer and they are a loco.

[Jack1985]

Would have to agree really only thing Aer Lingus are going to achieve operating a daily service to CPH this Winter is the flooding of the market. However though their research/route development team obviously researched this well.

[EI-BUD]

Yes Aer Lingus have tried CPH to death including a via Manchester option in the past if memory serves me correctly. However, if the demand is greater for DUB originating passengers there is no reason why Aer Lingus cannot get a fair slice of the market. Though I must admit to do so will make it quite marginal. When do the second pair of 319s join the fleet? Perhaps using a 319 may make it that bit more sustainable? Based on the fact that EI havent issued a Belfast winter timetable, and no sign of European routes, and still no sign of clarity of Belfast base for winter, a 319 or 2 may be appearing in Dublin sooner rather than later. a 144 seater could open up a range of routes from the Dublin market that Aer Lingus is not currently involved in.

EI-BUD

[Jack1985]

That's true EI-BUD, two more A319's are due in early 2013 so at least they have the option of smaller equipment this time to maybe finally get CPH to work for them.

[BHD2BFS]

With BA upping its services from BHD to LHR and no bfs winter schedule this late, could they possibly be leaving the NI market?

[Mlinnie]

NI

I don't know about Aer Lingus but I would hope they would remain at BFS but we haven't been waiting far too long we need an announcement soon

With the Aer Lingus A319s do you think EI would start up Luxembourg ? Now that luxair have left dublin im sure that there is still demand for it.

[racedo]

NOBODY on God's Earth is going to fly Ryanair to connect to Aer Lingus out of Dublin on long haul. The only thing worse than a normal short haul connection at the end of an overnight transatlantic flight would be if it were with Ryanair. In all seriousness, even on price, I think that's a step too far. MOL does NOT do complexity, one aircraft type, no sophisticated booking, cheap as chips, no connections. The FR culture would get f***ed up overnight the day they did that.

It depends....

Dunno - Book an Aer Lingus TA flight and get a voucher that entitles you to a Ryanair flight to Dub / SNN with checkable bag allowance / reserved seating and priority boarding and its cheaper than a direct as not a connecting flight.

No UK tax on flight as separate flights and fares a lot lower and think you may find quite a few takers.

Relatively easy to have 2 separate brands from same company.