Aer Lingus - 6

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Storm ahead for Aer Lingus as US crews seek parity - The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 27, 2012

[Cyrano]

Interesting report on FlightglobalPro this afternoon based on an interview with Stephen Kavanagh of EI.

It's subscription content so I won't cut and paste, but the key points:

• Aer Lingus is the process of deciding whether it will go for the Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737-9 Max to modernise its SH fleet. Decision timescale is 12-18 months. Despite the existing all-Airbus fleet, they are open to talking to Boeing. [He would say that, wouldn't he... ]
  
• EI plans to own more of its fleet directly, as it has €1bn of gross cash on the balance sheet. Hence for example the plan is that half the A350-900s on order will be paid for in cash and half will be leased.
  
• Iberia A319s leased from RBS: 2 aircraft expected by 3Q2012, others by 3Q2013.
  
• Recently returned some A320/A321 to ILFC at the end of their leases, and completed some sale and leasebacks with short leaseback terms. One A320 is currently offered for sale. They want to keep the fleet size at 36 and the aircraft for sale is the 37th.

[DollarBill]

While I understand that EI have to publicly keep their options open I just cant see the B737MAX being in a strong position for them. They have just spent the last decade converting from mostly B737 to all A320 family, and now dangle the idea that they may switch back 5-7 years from now? And this just after they would be taking delivery of their A359's? And after the A320NEO has been in service.


In relation to the story about the US based EI cabin crew- didn't they know what they were signing up for? Can anyone remember the uproar from the UA staff as 'their' jobs were being stolen from them? I wonder what the margins are on the route, could something like this make it non-viable in its current J/V form?

[Bearcat]

If I was a betting man, Id have a wager that AL will make money out of the 350 orders by flogging them on, trade their current 330s for new ones as part of the deal. I think the company is too small to expand on it's long haul selection and the immigrant routes will be their main stay for the foreseeable future being Boston, JFK, ORD.
West coast, forget it.....cost a fortune to run unless a daily and the yields aren't there to justify a 365 operation.

This is all on the premise that the company's status quo re ownership. This may dramatically change in the next 12 months with the government making noises that heathrow slots are not as strategic anymore and the governments desire to imminently address the general pension problem that is a noose around its neck.

[MCDU2]

West coast, forget it.....cost a fortune to run unless a daily and the yields aren't there to justify a 365 operation.

I think the yields aren't there because our branding is poor. We only seem to be able to attract Irish travellers. You see this time and again. EK are overbooked into and out of DUB, United/Continental can fly from IAD to DUB, the yanks can make Shannon work and the Washington "success" story is down to the yanks booking on united.com. I can assure you they have no idea that a green aeroplane is going to fly them until they front up to the gate. The sad reality as has been seen in LGW is that people just don't know about AL nor seem to wish to.

Entry into one of the alliances may well have helped but Mueller doesn't seem to want to. Unfortunately I see no growth on the medium/long haul side of the business and we might even get pushed out altogether by the bigger players.

As an aside the impact that the likes of EK will have on the LHR route will be interesting to see over time as people head to Dubai to connect and avoid the high UK taxes.

[EI-BUD]

our branding is poor

This is a key challenge for any airlines (especially if you are not Ryanair or Easyjet). How to market the other end of the route that is not Ireland/UK, not easy to do. Without the scale of operations that FR has around Europe it is difficult to pitch for the business to potential customers, despite how keenly priced it may be (ie for Aer Lingus), simply so difficult to market the audience in a meaningful way outside of Ireland.

We only seem to be able to attract Irish travellers

I travel to Spanish inlaws a lot, recently when waiting for my flight Alicante/Belfast, 2 flights (FR + EI) were leaving for Dublin. I noticed as I was waiting that FR seemed to have a lot more european customers than Irish and it appeared that EI was attracting a lot of Irish and not so many Spaniards. Ryanair have such an advantage in that the natives in any of the European countries will check Ryanair for flights and will often book with them without evening having checked other smaller companies, leads to another interesting point, FR dont always need to be cheap to attract the customer as often as far as many can see there are no others on may routes Ie if they dont check EI, and other carriers operating.

I suppose its the result of the move away from travel agents and the companies who have really embraced and exploited deregulations enjoy other benefits that smaller rivals cant.


EI-BUD

[Skipness One Echo]

our branding is poor

Surely though United can make both Dulles and Newark work due to a wealth of onward connections? The same goes for Emirates and the other US network carriers, leaving Aer Lingus with no Alliance partners mopping up seasonal point to point?

[dublinaviator]

Originally Posted by DollarBill

While I understand that EI have to publicly keep their options open I just cant see the B737MAX being in a strong position for them. They have just spent the last decade converting from mostly B737 to all A320 family, and now dangle the idea that they may switch back 5-7 years from now? And this just after they would be taking delivery of their A359's? And after the A320NEO has been in service.

They switched to an all-Airbus fleet to save costs. If Boeing can offer Aer Lingus an aircraft that has reduced running and operating costs compared to the A32X fleet, and at a good price, then Aer Lingus will buy it. Its as simple as that.

Originally Posted by MCDU2

Entry into one of the alliances may well have helped but Mueller doesn't seem to want to.

The reason they've decided not to fully join an alliance is because the costs involved outweigh the few benefits Aer Lingus would get from full membership. The only area Aer Lingus would really gain any benefit from being in an alliance is being part of one of the joint ventures. But apparently Aer Lingus are in discussions now to join one of the transatlantic joint ventures as a non-member, so expect a decision on that in the next few months.

[airbourne]

Sitting in my armchair I must express my disappointment at the lack of success of EI on some of their routes. Leaving aside the SH routes I look to the LH routes.

2 flights a day to JFK from DUB. No brainer, that works. But why was EWR dropped? Although that is a major CO hub it allowed them to come in and mop up some nice traffic from people that do not want to use JFK. Albeit on a 757, this is something that CO have done quite well is use the 757 on the thinner routes.

As has been said, its the paddy routes and Orlando. The thing that gets to me is the lack of the major selling point of DUB and SHN and that is the immigration! Like, how great is that, get off the aircraft, get bags and go! No long lines at the end of a 7-10 hour flight! I would sell the bejaysus out of that 'perk'.

In terms of selling the EI brand, all you have to do is look at the sponsorship of things in Ireland and the UK by airlines. Oh great, EI can sponsor the Capital London breakfast show for the LGW launch, but Emirates will sponsor a premier football team! I feel when I look at Aer Lingus, its all about the short game with them. If it is not an instant hit, they pull it. Start small, build and develop. Sometimes I wonder is the planning done with a blindfold and a pin the tail on the donkey?????

Do you remember the excitement last year when there was talk of a return to the west coast? There was interest alright, but not from EI. Does anyone want to take a bet that we might get UA operating a SFO-DUB route in 2012/3. What is the smallest aircraft type in UA's fleet that could do a non stop service and turn a few quid?

Who am I? Im a nobody except an aerosexual with a PPL, and even I can glance at the LH product and wonder aloud why EI cannot make routes work with passengers, and cargo alike. I wonder aloud why 2 airlines can fly to the UAE and make money and EI was in there before them and they couldnt make it work and pulled out.

Final point that someone pointed out was the american carriers and their onward connections. Does the EI/Jet Blue alliance not work well enough?

[EI-A330-300]

Jan passenger numbers up 5.8% to 563,000

EI Regional - up 26% to 53,000

Short Haul - up 6.2% to 514,000

Long Haul - up 2.1% to 49,000

Short Haul LF up 2% to 62.5% - Short Haul capacity increased by 4.6%
Long Haul LF down 3.1% to 61.8% - Long Haul capacity increased by 8%

[PPRuNeUser0176]

From 2012 Aer Lingus monthly traffic stats will represent the amount of passengers that actually fly and not the amount of booked passengers.

[dublinaviator]

Originally Posted by airbourne

In terms of selling the EI brand, all you have to do is look at the sponsorship of things in Ireland and the UK by airlines. Oh great, EI can sponsor the Capital London breakfast show for the LGW launch, but Emirates will sponsor a premier football team! I feel when I look at Aer Lingus, its all about the short game with them. If it is not an instant hit, they pull it. Start small, build and develop. Sometimes I wonder is the planning done with a blindfold and a pin the tail on the donkey?????

Airlines don't sponsor events/teams/venues for the sake of it, they do it to increase brand awareness and advertise their business. Aer Lingus clearly saw a need to do so with their LGW route and sponsored the Capital FM breakfast show which has been a huge success for them. Similarly they sponsored the Belfast Giants so as to increase their brand awareness in the North. And to advertise their business product, they've sponsored the breakfast with Ivan & Chris show on Newstalk.

Look at Etihad, they knew they had to promote their brand here as they were virtually unknown when they first started their Abu Dhabi route and what did they do? They became the main sponsor of the hurling championship. Their CEO being a hurling man probably helped as well, but they didn't just sponsor it for no reason. Aer Lingus don't need to do this because their brand is already very well known in Ireland.

Originally Posted by airbourne

Do you remember the excitement last year when there was talk of a return to the west coast? There was interest alright, but not from EI. Does anyone want to take a bet that we might get UA operating a SFO-DUB route in 2012/3. What is the smallest aircraft type in UA's fleet that could do a non stop service and turn a few quid?

There may well be a lot of interest in the route, but theres not enough people willing to pay the necessary fares in order for a west coast route to be profitable. Thats the only thing holding Aer Lingus back, the market is clearly there, but the yields aren't.

[Andrew R]

Sorry if this is a silly question but what sort of routes can we expect the A319s operate on? Domestic UK and Ireland routes? Where can we expect the A319s to be based at?

[dublinaviator]

Originally Posted by Andrew R

Sorry if this is a silly question but what sort of routes can we expect the A319s operate on? Domestic UK and Ireland routes? Where can we expect the A319s to be based at?

Theres no such thing as "domestic UK and Ireland routes", they're 2 different countries.

The first 2 A319s are to be based in Belfast AFAIK. Whether they'll be used on the Heathrow route depends on whether Aer Lingus retain an A320 based in BFS, otherwise the A319s will be operating all BFS routes.

[mikkie4]

how about southend?could that work?

[Andrew R]

Apologies, I sort of meant routes like Belfast - Heathrow, Dublin - Heathrow, Dublin - Manchester etc etc. Where will the Belfast A320s be going?

Thanks very much.

[Jamie2k9]

Sorry if this is a silly question but what sort of routes can we expect the A319s operate on? Domestic UK and Ireland routes? Where can we expect the A319s to be based at?
Apologies, I sort of meant routes like Belfast - Heathrow, Dublin - Heathrow, Dublin - Manchester etc etc. Where will the Belfast A320s be going?
Thanks very much.

The A319 will be operating all routes from BFS (AGP,FAO,ALC,BCN,LHR) except ACE,TFS and LPA which will be A320. A few of the A319 routes will be an A320 on certain days but mainly A319.

2 A320 have being retuned to leasor
1 A320 stored and for sale.

[Tom the Tenor]

What A320 aircraft is stored and is for sale?

Thanks.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by Tom the Tenor

What A320 aircraft is stored and is for sale?

Thanks.

If we are to believe ACAS, that would be MSN1242, their oldest A320 (2000 vintage): EI-CVA.

[brian_dromey]

Originally Posted by dublinaviator

[Theres no such thing as "domestic UK and Ireland routes", they're 2 different countries.

In this context I believe that the domestic related to the UK, as in BFS-LHR but not to Ireland, of which EI operates exactly zero domestic routes. Maybe to avoid confusion he should have said "routes within the British Isles" although, IIRC this has also upset a poster in the past, despite this being a recognised geo-political reference to the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.
As an aside, if RE brands all its flights as EI, as is rumoured, EI will once again serve a domestic Irish route in KIR-DUB, if only in name.

As it stands at the moment the A319s are being confined to the BFS base, probably to simplify their introduction. As more join Im sure they will be seen across the network. I think we might see one or even two in ORK for the winter, taking the base back to four based aircraft year round. If EI were really feeling adventurous NOC might be an option to base an aircraft. It seems pretty much any route one fancies can operate from NOC, including trasatlantics!