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Norwegian Air Shuttle

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Norwegian Air Shuttle

Old 15th Jul 2013, 13:13
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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I wouldn't be so sure. EMA has a large catchment and is in a very convenient location for a lot of cities principally Nottingham, Leicester, Derby but also Sheffield, Stoke on Trent etc and is only held back by its terminal facilities, which MAG are of course currently spending money improving. EMA had a CPH service in 2008 and was flown by 28k that year; with catchment leakage on the route of 62k in 2011.

If anyone were to try longhaul from EMA, a weekly route to India would make sense.

Last edited by sunday8pm; 15th Jul 2013 at 13:27.
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 14:07
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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I think its highly unlikely that NAS would consider EMA for long haul route start up, it has a big advantage cost wise over other more established airlines to go into a major airport that isn't slot restricted in terms of finding one slot a day off peak that also allows transfer traffic from other feeder routes, such an airport would be called LGW
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 14:23
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Did EZY not try MAN-GOT for a while before giving up ?
They did, but, were up against a slightly lesser priced and slightly higher capacity of City Airline (Skyways) at the time, and probably had minimal brand awareness.
Now its just a high fared BA flight and as for brand awareness, I doubt NAX has that issue in GOT.
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 14:30
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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I'd agree with that, although thats not to say there isnt money to be made for the right carrier on a route to India or Pakistan from EMA.
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 17:48
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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I thought easyJet canned the whole of their GOT operation out of the UK i.e. not MAN specific?
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 19:33
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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I highly doubt that it will be EMA without them starting some sort of service out of there first.

Actually the Liverpool to Copenhagen loads have got a lot better and are quite good now, I'd say it was 70-80% both ways today.

Last edited by EZY7117LPL; 15th Jul 2013 at 19:34.
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 20:47
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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So that why they are dropping to two weekly, i see it all now
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 21:06
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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Actually the Liverpool to Copenhagen loads have got a lot better and are quite good now, I'd say it was 70-80% both ways today.
Very interesting. You're basing your statement on casually observing and counting people getting on and off one day of operations, or do you actually have anything factual and informative to share with us with regard to their loads and trends ?

If we're going to rely on casual observations, I'll give you mine. Outbound from LPL, there were about 30 onboard. On our return, the flight was cancelled, apparently due to a tech aircraft ( and who are we to suspect any other reason?), and all 11 of us were re-routed to MAN via ARN.

Truthfully, loads ex LPL remain dire. The main demand continues to come from the CPH end, but to date I have seen little evidence of LJLA fulfilling its part of the deal to actively market the route at the Liverpool end. Epic fail; LJLA get given a subsidised route on a plate then seemingly do nothng to help make the route viable !

Last edited by StoneyBridge Radar; 15th Jul 2013 at 21:07.
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 21:19
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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To be fair stoneybridge, I have it on pretty good authority that LPL are currently in talks to start a further 8 routes next year (mostly bucket and spade)... Also that NAS are quite pleased with the operation out of Liverpool, despite the loads not being amazing (they never expected them to be on the copenhagen route).

However, by no means is anything concrete yet. NAS are also talking to Manchester by all accounts.

So yes, back in the real world... Sorry to burst your arrogant bubble
For goodness sake, of course LPL are talking to NAS. I would be wanting heads on sticks if they weren't talking to NAS and every other possible carrier. Talking though is very far from "agreeing contractual terms," which is the point at which I start taking interest.

Do you not think MAN, EMA, BPL, BHX, LBA et al are all doing the same ?

NAS will remain "happy" with an underperforming route as long as that route is in receipt of subsidy or artificial support. No one (except one vociferous LJLA supporter) denies the route is being subsidised presently. The real litmus test will be the ensuing months after that subsidy expires when the route has to stand on its own success. I remain dubious.

As for arrogance, I'm not sure why you sense that. If my delivery of the facts as they presently are comes across as arrogant, I will endeavour to change my tone for you. What I won't stop is stating fact, no matter how uncomfortable that might be for some.

Last edited by StoneyBridge Radar; 15th Jul 2013 at 21:20.
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Old 15th Jul 2013, 22:21
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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sunday8pm, Sterling flew both to CPH and OSL in 2007 + 2008 and the result was 5 555 + 26 011 passengers to/from CPH and 3 291 + 13 602 passengers to/from OSL. I was one of the passengers from EMA to OSL on 29 October 2007, and I would say the passenger loads on bord OY-MRH that day was shockingly low. Sterling failed miserably on the flights to EMA, not so much on loads as on yields. EMA was certainly a contributing factor for why Sterling had to file for bankruptcy and ceased to operate on 29 October 2008. I don't think Norwegian will like to end the same way, and therefore shun EMA like the plague.

I will agree with StoneyBridgeRadar's comment about the CPH-LPL route. In May the route had an average cabin load below 40%, and under normal conditions this route would have been classified as "been there, done that" route. The only UK airports that Norwegian can link to Scandinavian destinations with a profit right now are LGW, EDI, MAN, ABZ and perhaps BHX. The number of UK airports that can be served from the Spanish DY bases however is not as few as from Scandinavia.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 01:22
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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"As for arrogance, I'm not sure why you sense that."

I wont use the smilles that some members are so fond of but I've not had such a good laugh for a long time.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 05:43
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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Appreciate the sentiment and certainly some of the more peripheral European city destinations would be rather fragile. EMA is a better airport than it was in 2008 though and I believe could sustain traffic to Denmark and Sweden were DY willing to test the water.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 07:13
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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I wont use the smilles that some members are so fond of but I've not had such a good laugh for a long time.
Always happy to entertain the lurkers. Would be great if they contributed something to the debate rather than, as they tend to looking at their historical posting, just popping up intermittently with one liners.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 17:03
  #174 (permalink)  
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I may be mistaken, however a rough working out of the passenger figures for the LPL-CPH route in June (based on 8 return flights using a B738) shows a load factor of barely 30%

If there is any truth to the rumour of NAS considering LPL as UK base no. 2, it surely doesn't inspire confidence?

Last edited by pug; 16th Jul 2013 at 17:10.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 18:30
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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For goodness sake, the route has been operating for barely 10 weeks, mainly in the closed season given its target football market and you're writing it off already!
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 19:44
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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The route was put in because Norwegian were not sure that LPL could reach their turnaround targets, up to now they have achieved 100%. Load factors are not a concern at the moment and the route is subsidised from the Danish end.
By the way LPL have achieved 96% for EZY, MAN 64% so they'll have to get their finger out or they may not get any more routes until they do.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 20:11
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Load factors are not a concern at the moment
Ah, don't worry dear bean counters. We know the loads are averaging 30-40% per month, and the majority of fares struggle to get off the initial base rate, but at least we have 100% punctuality. We worry not of making money, just turnarounds. Reality check needed

By the way LPL have achieved 96% for EZY, MAN 64% so they'll have to get
their finger out or they may not get any more routes until they do.
Ah, so that explains fully why MAN is now a bigger base. Growing faster. Just gained another ex-LPL route. All make sense now. Ive said it before, if this is the level of expansion easyjet puts in if they re unhappy, it would be great to see the OTP improve just to see the mammoth scale of expansion it would apparently bring.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 20:51
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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LAX LHR

Of course load factor and yield are critical if a route is to last, this route utilises a gap in the flying program and I suspect it is underwritten from the CPH end of things

NAS are very focused on both punctuality & regularity, the latter means we very very rarely cancel a planned flight unless its exceptional circumstances & performance is reported in a live open format in most crew rooms, on our internal web site base by base, so today of 455 scheduled departures 439 have already departed 46 experienced a delay >15 min & the other 16 have yet to depart.

If price doesn't drive volume then no amount of marketing will, we use price to get people to try our airline, the product is not well known in the UK and people have low expectations based on the previous offerings in the UK LoCo market, we know we are streets ahead of the likes of Ryanair & EasyJet and the other UK operators in terms of customer satisfaction, but we are not well known and that takes time, LGW is proving to be a huge success and we are ramping up to 330 departures a week over the next 3 months or so, so a couple of rotations to LPL is neither here or there in the big scale of things, but it will work or be chopped if we are paying for it.
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Old 16th Jul 2013, 20:57
  #179 (permalink)  
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OK guys, you know what? I am closing this thread because there is so much gossip, guesswork and non-factual BS on here, and I am getting complaints about it, that you all need a rest from it. DON'T start another one until I give the OK. Any attempts to do so will be its end and of the one who does so.

Just relax for a while and ponder the rubbish that people have been posting. There is a limit and it has been reached.

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