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Old 12th May 2013, 20:51
  #2981 (permalink)  
 
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Always amazed at the number of posts generated about NQY in here...whats its annual pax throughput ?
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Old 12th May 2013, 20:55
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Point taken
Ill leave you all too it


cs
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Old 12th May 2013, 21:01
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It will be a clear message from BE if they do pull out of LGW. They have just introduced the E175 on the GCI route, and have long standing roots to the JER-LGW, GCI-LGW and BHD-LGW and in the past few years INV-LGW and the NQY-LGW.

JER would be picked up I am sure by BA and EZY - I cannot see GR increasing on this one as they would have competition and are facing the increased landing fees just like BE are. GR would however I am sure pick up the slack on the GCI-LGW.

I expect EZY would pick up NQY maybe once a day, twice at the most or Ryanair may decide to put in an appearance once again. INV will remain unchanged I expect and NCL would be without.

However this is all speculation, until more details are confirmed its all we can do. It could be that only certain slots will be sold in affect closing routes or reducing frequency on others.
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Old 12th May 2013, 22:30
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If easyJet were to buy FlyBE's slots, I highly doubt they will take on the routes...

easyJet will want to use the routes they feel they will get maximum return from.

I wonder if FlyBE could switch ops to Luton, if they are moving out of Gatwick... That is there only other London airport they to at present, but that is only 10 flights a week to JER and IOM.

It sure as hell would break boredom of easyJet, Ryanair and Wizzair!
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Old 13th May 2013, 07:17
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Not sure it’s a “clear message from Flybe” being forced out of Gatwick – more a clear message from Gatwick PLC that they’ve won and don’t want smaller aircraft operating into their airport.

It is however a clear message that UK aviation policy is a complete shambles, there is a massive lack of runway capacity at our hub airports, and that the UK is unable to maintain air connectivity to its regions.
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Old 13th May 2013, 07:24
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Anodyne Spot on
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Old 13th May 2013, 07:29
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Confirmed Flybe to sell 25 pair slots at LGW

Deals/Restructuring / Flybe confirms Gatwick slots sale talks THEBUSINESSDESK.COM

Chaps
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Old 13th May 2013, 07:41
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Maybe flyBE will reconsider operations from the revitalised London Southend Airport with its newly expanded terminal, its direct rail link to eastern and central London, its 0.8 million pax per year and its lower charges........ why not move to an airport where they are still held in high esteem for their presence in the past and would be welcomed with open arms?

No doubt MAG are well aware and will catch the flyBE fish though......
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Old 13th May 2013, 08:05
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Share price up 15% this morning - strong signal of approval from stock market
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Old 13th May 2013, 08:59
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So that's 22 years of history down the pan then.
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Old 13th May 2013, 09:17
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One of history's lessons is that money talks and wins all arguments......
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Old 13th May 2013, 09:40
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I would have thought that selling off assets would have been a bit of a warning. Perhaps the investors are happy (and hence share price rising) cos they are hoping to recoup some of their investment as opposed agreeing with a sell off?
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Old 13th May 2013, 10:31
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Share price up 15% this morning - strong signal of approval from stock market.
Even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from high enough. Approval from the markets only happens when you have a compelling and believable story on how you will invest the capital i.e. how you will use the money to make more money. I hope the board are in a position to do just that.
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Old 13th May 2013, 11:40
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Originally Posted by MCDU2
I would have thought that selling off assets would have been a bit of a warning. Perhaps the investors are happy (and hence share price rising) cos they are hoping to recoup some of their investment as opposed agreeing with a sell off?
Exactly. I don't think it's approval as much as relief. Cash is cash at this desperate stage.

Potentially very bad news for some key UK air links - particularly NQY (sorry for mentioning!)
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Old 13th May 2013, 11:57
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I would have thought that selling off assets would have been a bit of a warning.
Not necessarily. My analysis of the situation:

LGW have raised landing fees for smaller planes. This suggests they expect to be able to hit 100% runway capacity with 737/320 series aircraft, and the extra passengers mean more revenue for the airport overall.

This now means that FlyBe cannot profitably operate their fleet into LGW. Option 1: BE could lease 737s if they felt they could fill them profitably, but if they can, then surely EZY can too, who will kill them head-to-head due to scale. So not feasible. You either operate domestic flights into these airports with A319 or larger, or not at all.

Option 2: If LGW capacity is tight, then what the slots are worth to FlyBe for is a lot less than what the same slot might be worth to EZY, BA, or a Gulf carrier. If something is worth more to somebody else than it is to you, then it's something worth selling.

Option 3: Staying at LGW with RJs takes BE along the path towards the situation bmi found itself in at the end - flying E145s into LHR, and completely unsustainable.

Approval from the markets only happens when you have a compelling and believable story on how you will invest the capital i.e. how you will use the money to make more money. I hope the board are in a position to do just that.
At the moment the story seems to be mostly about reducing cost and waiting until the UK economy picks up, which does reflect the relationship between air travel and the macro economic picture, but doesn't make me want to rush out and buy FlyBe shares.
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Old 13th May 2013, 12:47
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Potentially bad news for the Newcastle 3 x daily link to Gatwick
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Old 13th May 2013, 14:16
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Stock market investors know nothing.

My employers share price crashed to 12p a few years back, despite us posting record profits. All the staff bought big and are now laughing their heads off at the current 183p share price.
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Old 13th May 2013, 14:45
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Selling assets that aren't making any money for the business is probably not a bad idea.

It's well known now that Gatwick want small aircraft like Flybe's gone (particularly those occupying prime time slots like most of Flybe's) and are trying to price them out. It will only become more and more difficult to make those flights pay their way so selling off the slots and moving out of Gatwick on mass could make sense. The alternative would be the gradual run down of routes and relinquishing of slots a pair or two at a time which would not attract anywhere near as much interest.

Worth noting though as some of this talk could be a little misleading.... Nothing is confirmed. Nothing has been sold. No one has said now many (if any) will be sold. They have 25 slot pairs, but no one has said they are all up for grabs and they may well want to hold on to a couple of routes that are still potentially viable?

Pure speculation here on my part here.... But could Flybe and Easyjet perhaps do a deal along the lines of "we'll flog you xx slot pairs for £xx as long as you leave the routes that we want to keep alone." Could be win win for both airlines, Easy get some valuable slots and Flybe retain/regain a monopoly on a couple of key routes.

Guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Old 13th May 2013, 14:51
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I heard an 'analyst' on TV at lunchtime saying that LGW NQY is their prime business route. Does it make sense to give up those slots in exchange for a cash injection? The answer is either that it's a well thought out strategy and they've looked at the value of other routes where they may re-deploy the aircraft, or they've sold the family jewels in a desperate attempt to stave off the bailiff.

We will see in time. I don't like the airline, never have, but for the sake of all the employees, I really hope this works for them.
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Old 13th May 2013, 15:08
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It may be that NQY-LGW is Newquay's prime business route, but I doubt it's Flybe's.

However, they have a monopoly on the route so if they do retain some slots after any deal is done, NQY could be one of the routes they decide to keep (if any that is).

We could view it as selling the family silver. However, if the silver is sitting in a box in the basement and not earning anyone any cash, may as well sell it while there are some buyers.

Last edited by JC25; 13th May 2013 at 15:10.
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