BELFAST (BHD) - 3
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Good to see BE having a stab at 'EU Jet Mk2' on the Belfast - Manston route.
Hope they get this one off the ground, unlike the BHD - Humberside service announced a while back - which mysteriously never took to the air in the end!
Hope they get this one off the ground, unlike the BHD - Humberside service announced a while back - which mysteriously never took to the air in the end!
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February stats
Again BHD have filed the flybe figures first allowing for a compare to be
carried out when the baby figures are known.
BHX - BHD 12700 down from 14720
EMA - BHD 3057 down from 15777
MAN - BHD 16100 down from 16376
BHX averages at 56 per flight up from 50 last year - load factor also 56%.
The 2011 rotations have been taken from libhomeradar (228) so
not accurate compared to the CAA in 2010 (253 rotations)
EMA averaged 32 or 41% Load Factor in 2011 if all flights operated.
Manchester - no idea.
I suppose some changes ahead with a certain orange airline
at BFS starting Manchester.
Pete
carried out when the baby figures are known.
BHX - BHD 12700 down from 14720
EMA - BHD 3057 down from 15777
MAN - BHD 16100 down from 16376
BHX averages at 56 per flight up from 50 last year - load factor also 56%.
The 2011 rotations have been taken from libhomeradar (228) so
not accurate compared to the CAA in 2010 (253 rotations)
EMA averaged 32 or 41% Load Factor in 2011 if all flights operated.
Manchester - no idea.
I suppose some changes ahead with a certain orange airline
at BFS starting Manchester.
Pete
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dog in the park
To replace the 2 E195 or to replace 2 Q400's? Or a bit of a mix?
Olton Pete
do you mean 5777 EMA. Would be one hell of a drop from 15777
BHX figures are not too great, although MAN seems to be holding up.
To replace the 2 E195 or to replace 2 Q400's? Or a bit of a mix?
Olton Pete
do you mean 5777 EMA. Would be one hell of a drop from 15777
BHX figures are not too great, although MAN seems to be holding up.
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EMA
big d1
Definitely 15777 - remember it was three daily 73H's 189 seats per sector.
Just to add in 2010 BFS - EMA was 5586, BHX 8877 & MAN 8414.
Manchester stands a chance of been up in total as does BHX. The baby
and flybe 2011 BHD-EMA was never going to match the February 2010
FR EMA-BHD and Baby BFS-EMA figures.
Question is, who is making money - if anyone?
Pete
Definitely 15777 - remember it was three daily 73H's 189 seats per sector.
Just to add in 2010 BFS - EMA was 5586, BHX 8877 & MAN 8414.
Manchester stands a chance of been up in total as does BHX. The baby
and flybe 2011 BHD-EMA was never going to match the February 2010
FR EMA-BHD and Baby BFS-EMA figures.
Question is, who is making money - if anyone?
Pete
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TCX now showing A321 for the BHD/REU flights now.
Few other one of flights for BHD
28-03-11 ADR A319
In from MBX 1240 - Out to LJU 1325
14-04-11 CFE E90
In from GLA 1305 - Out to GLA 1345
DLA starting VRN again on 02-07-11
Few other one of flights for BHD
28-03-11 ADR A319
In from MBX 1240 - Out to LJU 1325
14-04-11 CFE E90
In from GLA 1305 - Out to GLA 1345
DLA starting VRN again on 02-07-11
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OltonPete
Ah, thank you for pointing that out, getting my dates all mixed up. Forgot (put brain in gear before typing
) that it was still FR 737's operating BHD EMA back in Feb last year and not BE + Baby.
Who is making money? My guess neither. Although BE could be making a small amount but I have not checked to see what the ticket prices are like at the moment for either. I still believe that there just is not the demand for 2 carriers and that one of them will eventually drop the route or at least reduce the number of rotations.
Ah, thank you for pointing that out, getting my dates all mixed up. Forgot (put brain in gear before typing
) that it was still FR 737's operating BHD EMA back in Feb last year and not BE + Baby.Who is making money? My guess neither. Although BE could be making a small amount but I have not checked to see what the ticket prices are like at the moment for either. I still believe that there just is not the demand for 2 carriers and that one of them will eventually drop the route or at least reduce the number of rotations.
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big d1
I suspect that baby will throw all its toys at Flybe on BHD-EMA, i would be very surprised if they did not night stop a 73 at BHD before long to hit the early rotation to EMA from BHD.
I can't see baby wanting share the Man route with Easy out of BFS and will probably drop it at the end of the Summer and find something more productive to do with the aircraft, failing that start the route out of BHD instead of MAN, which would hit Flybe as well?
I await OP figs when baby figs filed
I can't see baby wanting share the Man route with Easy out of BFS and will probably drop it at the end of the Summer and find something more productive to do with the aircraft, failing that start the route out of BHD instead of MAN, which would hit Flybe as well?
I await OP figs when baby figs filed
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Ema/bhx/man
big d1
No probs, the Ryanair load factor was just over 50% in February 2010, even with their low cost base that must have been challenging.
Facelookbovvered
I can see that happening re an early morning inbound EMA from BHD and I assume that aircraft would come from re-directing a Manchester based unit? Surely baby won't continue the MAN - BHD and if not will another route be needed from BHD to replace it and if so, where?
flightglobal blog suggests that G-THOL & G-THOP will end up at baby not just the one. Very interesting and changing times ahead possibly?
Pete
No probs, the Ryanair load factor was just over 50% in February 2010, even with their low cost base that must have been challenging.
Facelookbovvered
I can see that happening re an early morning inbound EMA from BHD and I assume that aircraft would come from re-directing a Manchester based unit? Surely baby won't continue the MAN - BHD and if not will another route be needed from BHD to replace it and if so, where?
flightglobal blog suggests that G-THOL & G-THOP will end up at baby not just the one. Very interesting and changing times ahead possibly?
Pete
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Surely baby won't continue the MAN - BHD and if not will another route be needed from BHD to replace it and if so, where
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MAN
wanna_be_there
Depends on the time-frame involved with the start of any potential BHD routes as the summer schedule from all bases especially from late May
has very little slack until late September.
If the extra ex Thomson 733 arrives, maybe things might change
although that will depend on crewing but you would think September
would be the earliest for any changes but things seem to change fast
in the whole BMI group at present.
Pete
Depends on the time-frame involved with the start of any potential BHD routes as the summer schedule from all bases especially from late May
has very little slack until late September.
If the extra ex Thomson 733 arrives, maybe things might change
although that will depend on crewing but you would think September
would be the earliest for any changes but things seem to change fast
in the whole BMI group at present.
Pete
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Sorry Olton, dont think I explained myself very well.
you seemed to indicate WW should start a route from BHD instead of MAN, and it seemed like you were talking about the aircraft and slot times from a potentially displaced MAN-BHD service.
What I meant, was that, MAN-BHD is a MAN based unit, so that one can not be used, and its nore likely a new route would be at the MAN end.
Obviously, a new frame at BHD means they can start whatever routes they want.
Anyway, I think we are being a bit premeture, as WW might actually surprise everyone and stick to the route? I have to admit, Im guilty of it myself (having just posted something in the bmibaby thread), but, we seem to write WW too quickly.
MAN-BFS on easyjet doesnt even start until 31st October, and we are already talking about WW pulling off MAN-BHD. Who is to say, that under LH ownership, bmi baby actually fight their corner for once, after all, some people might actually prefer using BHD over BFS, or even WW over EZY?
you seemed to indicate WW should start a route from BHD instead of MAN, and it seemed like you were talking about the aircraft and slot times from a potentially displaced MAN-BHD service.
What I meant, was that, MAN-BHD is a MAN based unit, so that one can not be used, and its nore likely a new route would be at the MAN end.
Obviously, a new frame at BHD means they can start whatever routes they want.
Anyway, I think we are being a bit premeture, as WW might actually surprise everyone and stick to the route? I have to admit, Im guilty of it myself (having just posted something in the bmibaby thread), but, we seem to write WW too quickly.
MAN-BFS on easyjet doesnt even start until 31st October, and we are already talking about WW pulling off MAN-BHD. Who is to say, that under LH ownership, bmi baby actually fight their corner for once, after all, some people might actually prefer using BHD over BFS, or even WW over EZY?
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MAN
wanna_be_there
I probably didn't explain very well what I meant either.
I was thinking more September/October time for any
change but was just musing that any early morning
BHD-EMA could come from cancelling MAN-BFS, as you
have stated on the BMI Baby thread exactly where are
they going with the MAN base and now they have extra
pressure on a route what is double daily in the week?
I think you are right they will fight their corner against
flybe at EMA and at BHX but am I not so sure against
easyjet and flybe from the Belfast area to Manchester
but I could be wrong.
Any earlier start of an early morning BHD-EMA would
require some drastic changes.
I probably didn't explain very well what I meant either.
I was thinking more September/October time for any
change but was just musing that any early morning
BHD-EMA could come from cancelling MAN-BFS, as you
have stated on the BMI Baby thread exactly where are
they going with the MAN base and now they have extra
pressure on a route what is double daily in the week?
I think you are right they will fight their corner against
flybe at EMA and at BHX but am I not so sure against
easyjet and flybe from the Belfast area to Manchester
but I could be wrong.
Any earlier start of an early morning BHD-EMA would
require some drastic changes.
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Wanna Be There
" Who is to say, that under LH ownership, bmi baby actually fight their corner for once, after all, some people might actually prefer using BHD over BFS, or even WW over EZY? "
Up until WW moved to Bhd, pax had the choice of using Bfs or Bhd. About 8k pm made a choice to use Bfs, when they could have used Bhd. So I think it is fair to assume that there are about 8k pm who are showing a preference to use Bfs, I know that might come as a surprise. That in the face of a better schedule from Flybe as opposed to a not very good one from WW. Let us make an assumption that those 8k migrate back to Bfs. The pax level for Bhd - Man is about 16k pm. If the figures go back to about these levels, but now Man - Bhd has 2 carriers with about an extra 500 seats pd approx, then what happens? Use a little imagination and assume the pax totals settle down to pre WW move levels, what happens then?
I would also argue that Ezy has a greater pulling power than either WW or Flybe.
" Who is to say, that under LH ownership, bmi baby actually fight their corner for once, after all, some people might actually prefer using BHD over BFS, or even WW over EZY? "
Up until WW moved to Bhd, pax had the choice of using Bfs or Bhd. About 8k pm made a choice to use Bfs, when they could have used Bhd. So I think it is fair to assume that there are about 8k pm who are showing a preference to use Bfs, I know that might come as a surprise. That in the face of a better schedule from Flybe as opposed to a not very good one from WW. Let us make an assumption that those 8k migrate back to Bfs. The pax level for Bhd - Man is about 16k pm. If the figures go back to about these levels, but now Man - Bhd has 2 carriers with about an extra 500 seats pd approx, then what happens? Use a little imagination and assume the pax totals settle down to pre WW move levels, what happens then?
I would also argue that Ezy has a greater pulling power than either WW or Flybe.
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About 8k pm made a choice to use Bfs, when they could have used Bhd. So I think it is fair to assume that there are about 8k pm who are showing a preference to use Bfs, I know that might come as a surprise
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More than fair point True Blue
It will be interesting to see how this pads out in the months to come, FR killed baby when they started BHD EMA, but the tickets were for free, this will have generated volumes that will not be repeated by the price levels that Easy/Baby/Flybe will seek.
It always seemed wrong that FR went to BHD rather than BFS although i understand why.
On a like for like comparison i would expect that if fares & frequency were similar then 60- 70% of all traffic would opt for Bhd over Bfs, Flybe are normally more expensive, so when up against either baby or Easy i would expect Flybe & BHD to take a smaller share, when up against baby at BHD that share will fall further.
But i tend to agree that Easy will win against baby because of their greater marketing reach, the big looser will be Flybe
It always seemed wrong that FR went to BHD rather than BFS although i understand why.
On a like for like comparison i would expect that if fares & frequency were similar then 60- 70% of all traffic would opt for Bhd over Bfs, Flybe are normally more expensive, so when up against either baby or Easy i would expect Flybe & BHD to take a smaller share, when up against baby at BHD that share will fall further.
But i tend to agree that Easy will win against baby because of their greater marketing reach, the big looser will be Flybe
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In Feb 2007
MAN-BFS = 13,963 WW
MAN-BHD = 18,789 BE
BHX-BFS = 14,698 WW
BHX-BHD = 16,737 BE
Now in those days WW had up to 3 returns per day, and I think up to 4. ie they were growing the market and had more seats for sale. After this period they just lost interest or something and the route went to the dogs.
Wait and see how EZY perform, I would say they will not be long on the route and there will be 4 returns every week day.
MAN-BFS = 13,963 WW
MAN-BHD = 18,789 BE
BHX-BFS = 14,698 WW
BHX-BHD = 16,737 BE
Now in those days WW had up to 3 returns per day, and I think up to 4. ie they were growing the market and had more seats for sale. After this period they just lost interest or something and the route went to the dogs.
Wait and see how EZY perform, I would say they will not be long on the route and there will be 4 returns every week day.