British Airways - 2

[Omnipresent]

Going slightly off at a tangent, I note that BA 'lease' some slots to Aegean & Brussels Airlines.
Can anyone confirm; when the leases expire (I assume they are time limited?)
Can BA simply say; -
"Thanks very much for your last payment but we will not be renewing the lease as we wish to use the slots"

Yes. It's a commercial agreement between the airlines so BA has no obligation to extend/renew a lease beyond the agreed term.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "China Southern stated that the reason its had taken so long to launch a London-Guangzhou service was that they found it difficult to find slots in LHR, they did in the end but its just shows how hard it is for new entrants to access LHR"

Yet another very good reason for LHR expansion.....

Quote: "Even if the slots are merely up for sale, VN will still have to compete with BA when it comes to buying those slots, along with other major airlines, so unless they are prepared to pay though the nose for them, they will find it hard to get any

Also what do you mean “so BA wouldn't necessarily know about it” I thought it was a open market?"


Not neccessarily, it may be a private arrangement between two carriers: it could be a sale, it could be a lease. There are enough carriers with LHR slots who are in dire financial straits, for example, could be anyone.

Quote: "If you mean within ST, which one would be willing to do a deal with VN? (Maybe they could get some if AF-KL-DL decides to fully buy out VS and transfer the assets to those airlines and their partners, like VN)

In fact which airline would be prepared to sell to VN (outside of VN) without demanding them to pay a lot of money in return, unless the airline is in serious financial trouble"


Who knows? It doesn't have to be a deal with another Skyteam member, although it's probably more likely. If VN is serious about the route longterm, they may want to move from LGW to LHR-4, it would be a natural progression as it is/was with other carriers. VN gets access to a Skyteam hub by being at LHR-4.


Quote: "Someone's back at college with internet access I see"

Yes, skipness, this college term does appear to have started early!

[BALHR]

Would any of these destinations in Latin America be viable to serve for BA from London? (Even with short-haul connections, codeshare with LATAM and 787s, maybe even BA divorcing IB):
Belo Horizonte
Bogota
Brasilia
Guayaquil
Lima
Medellin
Recfite
Salvador
Santiago
Quito
I did try asking this question before, problem was that It ended up causing a lot of confusion and other issues (with the way I wrote it)…

[pwalhx]

BA are not going to divorce from IB however much you would like the idea. Much in the same way your list of destinations in East Asia there may be a possibility the odd one or two on your list could sustain a direct flight. If it can it may be on BA's radar however I do not see any of them coming to fruitaion in the short term.

[LGS6753]

BALHR -

No.

That's what IB is for.

[Dannyboy39]

... and that's what Oneworld is for in other regions. Technically BA serve 750 destinations worldwide in 150 countries.

Edit: And how would BA divorcing IB exactly help in those destinations? How many people would want to travel from the UK, especially with Spain's heritage within Latin America.

[Heathrow Harry]

Frank

Do you think BA would agree to serve all those UK airports for say 10 years if they got the extra runway (s) at LHR?

they'd really strengthen their case politically

But of course they won't - what they want is more interlining long haul passengers

[Skipness One Echo]

Do you think BA would agree to serve all those UK airports for say 10 years if they got the extra runway (s) at LHR?

That's a very good point, indeed those long haul heavies need to be filled by connecting traffic. Surely some method of ring fencing x number of slots for particular regional routes is possible? Or is even that illegal now I wonder?

[BALHR]

Well that's original! How would it be funded? higher fares, higher taxes in general, a specific rail passenger duty, more government borrowing?

Remember, the taxpayer subsidises the “privatised” rail industry far more than what it did when BR was ever around, in fact “renationalisation” would mean more of the money will be going to towards the railways rather than waste and dividends

[BALHR]

BALHR
Whilst I admire your enthusiasm your posts are rather lengthy and at times difficult to follow.
New ideas and approaches are great, but they need underpining with fact and sound economics before being implemented.
I am sure that the experienced and highly qualified professionals at BA examine all possibilities before considering further route developments.
BA is profitable and stable. It is a well respected airline that at the moment is following a clear strategy that involves playing to the relative strengths of its Heathrow, Gatwick and London City bases. These bases allow it to balance different types of traffic across its operations to maximise yield and profit.
It will never be a perfect match but at the moment its doing ok!!

V.

I am not the sort of person who randomly puts out new ideas on this form without some idea about how it could work, I am not proposing anything radical, I am just furthering the practises of BA and trying to think of solutions with what they have got at LHR/LGW/LCY

However I am not the best person to judge if my ideas would work economically and I have no access with any inside information of any airline

[BALHR]

No one is going to ever change BALHR's mind and I honestly think engaging him is a waste of effort as he is one of these guys who just doesn't get it.
He's the one and only person on my ignore list (!) Except people keep quoting back the garbage he is spouting so there's no escape from such drivel!

On what basis do you seem to think that I am “one of these guys who just doesn't get it” and why I am I in your ignore list?

Firstly I am more than happy to listen to other user’s advice, after all the vast majority of you have more experience than I do in this sector
What I have a problem is that people don’t read the entirety of my posts and then comment about them

He does NOT work for BA!!! Just imagine if he did (!)

If I did I would not be making much of a difference (I would not be in a job deciding strategy with my age and experience)

No it will wither and die over the summer as the schedule is designed to run at a loss and be unattractive to business. Unless they give it a night stopper and an early into LHR, making use of a prime time slot, it's not useful for P2P. Without a good P2P mix to balance out connections, it will bleed red. The summer sees a first Southbound at 1135. Unless that changes, they're not serious about serving LBA.

Well look its early days for a start, also I don’t think BA would launch a service to a new destination if they thought it was unprofitable (or did not contribute to profitable routes) and would be scrapped (after paying for slots at that new destination) before long

BA wants more connecting flights to the regions, but they cannot find space at LHR without compromising the number of medium/long-haul flights…

[BALHR]

All of Europe's five major hubs are in the west of the continent, in fact four of the five are remarkably close to eachother!

The question is not of location, but of how many slots you can muster

When you mean “Europe’s five major hubs” do you mean LHR, AMS, CDG, FRA and MUC?

Yes, this is the main point. JL and CX are BA's only local (Oneworld) partners in Asia, so HKG has the highest frequencies and BA goes to both NRT and HND in Tokyo.

China is mostly Skyteam territory, and south east Asia is mostly Star Alliance, BKK, SIN, etc., so adequate connectivity at the LHR end of BA's Asia routes is critically important.

Because they lack OW partners in Asia and Africa, they would have to do agreements with non-OW (including *A and ST members) airlines, it would not be the first time it had done this (they already do it with EI) and their “partners” Qantas have also do this as well

[BALHR]

Can posters please stop focusing on the routes I highlighted as possible slot sitters. 32 people from Leeds is nothing, how many would they get serving Lima in Peru for example, more than 32! Of course these slot sitters make money, the question relates more importantly to feeding our NATIONAL ECONOMY though. So does anyone have knowledge on the success of these routes at CDG, AMS etc?

BA only has to look as its sister airline IB to be how successful flights to Europe are; good enough for BA to launch London-Lima services, rather than rely on a financially struggling airline in a country whose political and economic future looks uncertain

But its needs short-haul connecting routes like Leeds to make medium/long-haul work for BA and needs more of them

[BALHR]

But BA aren't a nationalised industry, so their responsibility is to their shareholders. I think you'll find they will only play the 'national interest' card when they want something off the Government.

In general terms they will have an interest in the health of the national economy, on the basis that the richer the country is the more profitable they are likely to be, but feeding our National Economy is probably not top of the priority list.

BA’s financial health depends a lot of the state of the National Economy, so the two things are closely linked, most of all when we really need to do more trade with the outside world

[BALHR]

Going slightly off at a tangent, I note that BA 'lease' some slots to Aegean & Brussels Airlines.
Can anyone confirm; when the leases expire (I assume they are time limited?)
Can BA simply say; -
"Thanks very much for your last payment but we will not be renewing the lease as we wish to use the slots"

I thought SN got their LHR slots from LH (who got them off BMI before selling it to BA)

Answering your question, it’s up to BA if they want to renew the leases once the current ones expire…

[BALHR]

I thonk BA have lost a good bit of ground to EK EY among others as the product now offerred to UK regional passengers via the ME is excellent and compares very well with a transit in LHR between term 1 and 5

If I chose to go Business class from UK regional say EDI GLA MAN BHX to say HKG SYD among others I am going to opt for the airline with fewest stops, easy transfers and best producxt, eg new planes non stop longhaul

EK wins hands down for me, and they are cheaper as well a s less hassle.

BA have loads slots currently, they are squatting on some eg DUB , where they returned after a 20 year sbscence, advertised 8 roundtrips a day , actually never got near 8 on a daily basis and are now reducing to 4 or 5 a day after only 4 months of their return, these slots will be better used for other higher yiled and presumably longhaul routes as new aircraft arrive.

BA have to improve their current product and TERMINAL FIVE has to be ramped up for UK domestic and ROI arrivals asap in order to provide less hassle for connecting high yiled passenfers, I believe it may even be too latenow that TK are tapping into this market as well as the desert carriers.

BA are NOT circling the EI slots at LHR , thats just MOL stirring the pot, BA have loads slots and are thus increasing European feed to LHR , eg NICE a high yield route with good demand for Longhaul not currently targeted by the middle east folks.

BA will grow , but the market has moved futher east for east bound transit passengers

South America on the other hand is there for the taking .....currently

They have suffered in the UK regions thanks to KL, EK, EY and several others, mainly because BA is hampered by the fact LHR is tight in terms of space and is forced to choose with connecting flights to the regions and medium/long-haul

But it’s not just that (as you say), KL at AMS and EK at DXB beats BA hands down (their base at LHR is within 3 Terminals) who have all their operations at 1 terminal which gives them an advantage in easy transfers as well

EK also has a rather good reputation in terms of service and comfort (bar 3-4-3 Economy seating on their 777-200LR/300ER)

For BA to compete with this, they need to do the following things:
1: They need to buy a lot more slots at LHR, LCY and LGW (right up the 70% limit)

2: They need to get a move on with their upgrades of all 4 classes (they still have old versions of all classes in their fleet) and maybe consider further upgrades to all 4 classes (maybe introduce Cathay Pacific’s new business class as well…)

3: They need to launch a lot more UK/European Short-Haul + Connecting, Africa, South America and Asia routes

4: With the extra slots they would have and the pressing need to replace their existing fleet (along with aircraft to launch new routes), they would need to order more E170s, E190s, A319neo’s, A320neo’s, A321neo’s, 787-8s, 787-9s, A350-900s, A350-1000s and A380-800s
5: Lastly they needs to a major expansion of T5 at LHR (and LHR in general) to consolidate all its LHR (and LGW) operations to this terminal, including further expansion routes

On the matter of “BA are NOT circling the EI slots at LHR” firstly BA have agreed to take on the LHR slots owned by EI (not including the EI slots leased from VS), IF FR manages to takeover EI (which is not a easy task), so this is not once of MOL/FR idiotic comments for once, also they don’t have “loads slots” they barely have enough to compete with its rivals such as LH/LX/OS/SN

Also BA cannot afford to lose “eastbound” traffic, which is where most of the growth in air travel is (home to a lot of the emerging economics) either and they really need to get a move on by “divorcing” IB and launching their own Latin American Routes, remember OW have a lot of the continent with the help of partner LATAM, so they recall need to make the most of it with a codeshare partnership with them

[BALHR]

Alderney is currently hanging on to around 3 daily flights to Southampton and a few more to Guernsey, which give travellers links to a reasonable selection of UK and European destinations, and if they want to go furhter getting from Southampton Airport to Heathrow or Gatwick is a fairly easy process, so I don't really see how there is any demand for an LHR link to this tiny island. Not forgetting that a 16 seat Trislander (Largest aircraft viably operated from ACI) would be a huge waste of LHR slots, regardless of whether it gets 2 more runways or not.

Could see Liverpool, Isle of Man, Inverness, Jersey, Newquay working although only with the mentioned extra runways combined with significantly reduced or ideally scrapped APD.

To be honest Alderney was a long shot, how do the residents of Alderney get to LHR/LGW?

Also are you sure Doncaster-Sheffield, Exeter, East Midlands, Humberside and Teeside are not viable out of LHR?

Also I deliberately ignored Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff and Norwich because they rather too close to LHR/LGW (in terms of getting there…)

Lastly, I agree on your APD statement…

[BALHR]

With 3/4 rwys at LHR anything becomes possible.

Not ACI, and if EMA is viable, so may BHX, NWI and CWL be as well. Would expect either DSA or HUY but not both.

All the above, and others, are crying out for an LHR link, but not convinced that BA would neccessarily be on all of these routes. AFAIK, they don't have the aircraft suitable for the thinnest routes.

Could see other carriers on the thinner routes (BM or BE perhaps?), perhaps in collaboration with BA and/or VS, (through ticketing and baggage checked through to final destination, etc.).

Also suspect that commuter flights will come into their own with increasing congestion on the roads and another 10 years of above-inflation rail ticket hikes. Feeding longhaul as well makes more of these viable.

As for BA flights, or VS for that matter, think adfly's list (see below) is about right.

However none of this will happen without the elimination of the delays, congestion and the artificial market in slots at LHR, and that means 1-2 more rwys and new terminal capacity. Under those circumstances could also imagine a U2 presence at LHR for some of their more busines-orientated routes!

The reason I picked EMA is because (based on looking on a map), it’s quite a distance from Derby/Nottingham/Leicester to LHR/LGW, maybe Norwich and maybe (at a push) Birmingham fits into that category as well, there might also be a direct rail link to Heathrow from Cardiff (there is already a indirect one via Reading)

Why do you suggest that either Doncaster-Sheffield OR Humberside is viable?

Also BA does have the aircraft suitable for the thinnest of routes, when I mean “BA” however, I mean BA CityFlyer who have E170s and E190s available, not only that, but they wet-lease a Saab 2000 for the LCY-IOM route from Eastern Airways

If a E-jet is too big for the route to be viable, then perhaps BA could wet-lease a turboprop from either Eastern Airways or Flybe (with BA livery, FF and interlining) to do the job (either a Saab 2000 or a Bombardier Dash-8 Q400)

“Commuter Flights” (I would prefer to call them “Intercity Flights”) out of LHR/LGW/LCY (preferably the latter) could work, but only if the oil price remains stable ($100-110 per barrel) and rail fares continue to rise at the rate it currently is doing for a extended period, then we might see London-Birmingham/Cardiff (and a lot more) again, if BA CityFlyer operated these routes, it could turn out to be quite lucrative…

As for Easyjet operating out of LHR, I would feel that it would become possible (as they become more of a business orientated “hybrid” carrier) once there is space at LHR (they are only at LGW/LTN/STN because there is space and its cheap, but LCCs are creeper into LHR recently…), if they move their LGW/LTN/STN operations (which can be done once LHR has 4+ runways), then it would leave massive holes at both airports

In fact of LHR gains at least 2 runways, (with all the full-service carries at LGW moving to LHR along with U2’s LGW/LTN/STN ops), it would leave Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, quite empty, certainly no need for a 2nd runway at LGW

[BALHR]

Can't see the point, they've only recently put it together. they have to resolve IB's problems and soon! It's a similar situation at AF-KL.

Of course, BA should have linked up with KL back in the day, but regretably, it was not to be.

The trouble is that IB is facing a fight for survival in a country that is in a poor economic state and is facing a uncertain future (politically and economically), not only that buts its losing ground in its main market (Europe-Latin America) to its rivals and even one of its own OW partners (LATAM)

BA on the other hand is doing fairly well, but still faces the problem of strong competition between its rivals in Europe, North America and the Middle East

In other words, both airlines have different needs, are quite distant to each other (unlike AF-KL and LH/LX/OS/SN) and don’t have too much in common (bar OW membership and having A320s as the main NB type)
That is why I have called for a separation, so that IB can have the financial resources and survive the hard time and BA can focus on better competing with its rivals

I still feel that both airlines should retain a close partnership and perhaps maybe the “new” IAG (holding company for IB and VN) could retain some sort of shareholding in BA

As for Air France, at least it’s located in a country that is (relative) economic and political stability, its CDG base is close to AMS and has got a rather extensive network (IB does not have this), all it needs to do is fix the issues it faces and things should be good form them

I agree on the matter of a posibble BA-KL merger, it would have been great for both airlines (LHR can service the London + SE O&D market, AMS the rest of the UK), though it would have caused some problems in terms of alliances (and would have ended up in NW merging with AA, not DL)

Yes, you keep banging on about a 70% maximum slot ownership for one carrier at any one airport, but you fail to explain where this figure comes from and why. To say that LH have 70% of slots at FRA is not an explanation. To say it is "unofficial" is not an explanation.

Please don't take us all for idiots, can't put it any more politely.

Well I got the figure from LH’s presence in FRA and I got this from the various news reports (and Airliners.net forums) in relation to the BA/BMI deal (any idea on getting the actual figures for AMS/CDG/ORY and FRA/MUC/DUS/BER/ZRH/GVA/VIE?)

What I am saying is that this is the highest figure from one airline in a major hub airport in Europe, which the EU has not issue with, otherwise it would be insisting on a sale of some of those slots…

If you were secretary of state for transport (heaven help us), you ought to be pushing those in the government who favour LHR expansion (behind the scenes of course) into growing a pair and a backbone. Indeed, you could it make it a condition of accepting the job.

Thanks for the advice, shame it’s not likely for me for at least 15-20 years at least…

[aeulad]

BA on the likes of LHR-DSA/HUY will never happen. There isn't the market there to provide enough bums on seats with very good and frequent rail connections. Also, with UK APD and heavily taxed domestic flying, I doubt the fares would be attractive enough to attract pax away from AMS.

Kind regards

Mike