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Old 6th Aug 2009, 09:11
  #5181 (permalink)  
 
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Obviously to draw any meaningful conclusions from the somewhat selective statistics given it would be helpful to know the yield on those 'seat' sales and also the percentage or actual increase in capacity over the same period.
If capacity increases by X and yield is exactly the same as previous then increase in passengers numbers is the same as increase in capacity.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 09:36
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ASFKAP

If you take these figures and the profit made last quater
of £118m and compare it with (for example) BA, then you
can clearly see that Ryanair is not in such a bad state -
taking yields into account or not.

Your interpretation is again leaning towards the negative -
trying to seek solace from yields to prove validity of your
thoughts - Ryanair have trumped you yet again with their
results.

As another poster has written -they must have really p1ssed
you off when they got rid of you (dont worry its just a
negative stab in the dark!!) hey! I could be wrong.

MM
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 10:00
  #5183 (permalink)  
 
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Once the price of that seat goes above that price range people tend to no longer use them (ie people might say I don't mind flying Ryanair if I can get a ticket for 1c but I won't fly Ryanair if I have to pay €250 for the ticket).
This is why the yield is more important than the actual number of seat sales.
A certain % of fares will be sold on promotion however hitting an 89% load factor clearly means that you will also be charging a lot of people a higher fare.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 10:08
  #5184 (permalink)  
 
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I have found that my summer flights with Ryanair this year, have been more expensive than last year. Stansted to Hahn, Alghero, Faro - this year all 3 were more expensive than last year.

But in May and June, tickets were very cheap! Stansted to Marseilles and Basel.

Still, the results are impressive. Even if they have charged passengers more - they still beat every other airline.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 11:40
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Even if they have charged passengers more
FutureCC, before you can attempt any analysis or interpretation of the statistics, you actually have to collect the data. Your own good or bad luck in purchases (concerning you = 1 person) is far too insufficient to draw any conclusions. In reality, the fares have dropped.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 12:00
  #5186 (permalink)  
 
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Obviously to draw any meaningful conclusions from the somewhat selective statistics given it would be helpful to know the yield on those 'seat' sales and also the percentage or actual increase in capacity over the same period.
Their quarterly and annual results will give an indication of yield performance. There was a 13% reduction in average fares in Q1, ancillary revenues up 13%

89% load factor in July 08 with 5.66M bookings, 89% load factor in July 09 with 6.73M bookings so approx. 19% growth in available capacity. Refer to annual results to assess the financial impact of any planes on the ground.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 13:07
  #5187 (permalink)  
 
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pee

Whatever the stats say ones own experience when booking
flights is relevant.I dont think that he wanted to analyse company
performance - just his findings as a fare paying passenger.
Which is fair enough isnt it?

MM
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 13:24
  #5188 (permalink)  
 
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If the airline is "selling" 19% more seats but at 19% less per seat then it is not doing very well. A could open a pub selling very good beer at 49p/pint and I would pack out the place but make a massive loss.

Discounting is a very good way to fill spare capacity but Ryanair are undermining there income instead of just clearing spare seat.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 14:06
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If the airline is "selling" 19% more seats but at 19% less per seat then it is not doing very well. A could open a pub selling very good beer at 49p/pint and I would pack out the place but make a massive loss.

Discounting is a very good way to fill spare capacity but Ryanair are undermining there income instead of just clearing spare seat.
More makey up figures. They not charging 19% less per seats and their revenue seems to be holding up nicely, add in the fact they made a nice profit.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 15:14
  #5190 (permalink)  
 
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ASSKAP

Whilst 'the city' interprets statistics - the bottom line
is the most important one.A profit of 1p is still a profit.
Indeed BA would have been grateful for such a profit
last quater would they not?

But then again - I could be wrong?

MM
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 17:01
  #5191 (permalink)  
 
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If the airline is "selling" 19% more seats but at 19% less per seat then it is not doing very well.
Not a very intelligent comment. An airline could choose to sell seats at 75% less and still do very well as long as their total revenue exceeds total costs.

A could open a pub selling very good beer at 49p/pint and I would pack out the place but make a massive loss.
Pointless analogy and again incorrect. You would only make a loss if your equivalent cost per pint served is greater than 49p.

Is that not how the City judges your performance....?
No. It is one factor, judging by yield only would be as stupid as judging by load factor only.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 18:03
  #5192 (permalink)  
 
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mickyman - whether a large company makes £1 profit or £1 loss is not considered by equity analysts in itself as particularly important.

Instead, one considers how much capital (or equity) the company is using per share, the current share price, and then compare it against the profit (or loss) figures. Of course, people also consider the size of the balance sheet and (when companies are struggling) the cashflow situation. One also considers the profit as a proportion of revenues

Broadly speaking, if one deposits cash in the bank, one is unlikely to get more than a few % of interest as bank deposits are normally deemed low risk - the Govt essentially guarantees them anyway.

Investing money in airline shares is considered rather more risky, and investors will demand a much higher return on capital employed - a figure of over 10% is quite normal.

On revenues of £1 bn, the City doesn't care whether you made a profit of £1 or a loss of £1. The City does however care whether you made a profit of £50m or just £10m
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 19:32
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davidjohnson6

You are correct ofcourse in respect of the city and
its overall statistical analysis of a companies health.

Unfortunately some people on here are not able to
grasp certain aspects of business and therefore
make sweeping statements on unproven figures and
expect to be taken seriously.

Posters who try and turn all things into negatives
using spurious figures/assumptions need challenging

Mr blanket statement should be argued with for the
sake of fairness.

MM
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 20:32
  #5194 (permalink)  
 
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I think a passengers experience regarding the price of the ticket is entirely relevent.

Also, Ryanair have made a profit in a time like this - yes it was not the €400 or so million that they wanted or that would be achieved in a good boom; but in a deep recesion making any money at all is, in it's own right, a blessing.

I don't think any other airline in the "Big 3" -Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, BA- have made any money. If anything, they are loosing money.

Whilst other airlines are putting expansion on hold - Ryanair is continuing to grow. Which surely, must mean more money in the bank?

Ancillary revenue has remained strong (I think this is the real money) which means passengers are still taking bags, can't fly without priority boarding, and must have those oh-so-delicous sandwiches and coffee.

Last year it was €21 million - now it is €136.5 million. Enough said.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 20:58
  #5195 (permalink)  
 
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Whilst other airlines are putting expansion on hold - Ryanair is continuing to grow. Which surely, must mean more money in the bank?
That doesn't follow, you can be loss making and cut a dash for growth and survival. The issue is that with Ryanair, they have their fan boys and detractors but only time will be the judge of ultimate success. There is a real argument that this growth means they will over reach themselves.

Ancillary revenue has remained strong (I think this is the real money) which means passengers are still taking bags, can't fly without priority boarding, and must have those oh-so-delicous sandwiches and coffee.
Last year it was €21 million - now it is €136.5 million. Enough said.
Passengers are taking on FEWER bags as was the intention of hiking the prices, hence the rise... I think you are being oversimplistic. I am spending way less with Ryanair as I have gotten wise though still happy to use them.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 21:00
  #5196 (permalink)  
 
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Grrr

Ryanair's long-term problem is travelling folk perceptions. The UK market I would wager as far as Ryanair is concerned is stagnant or in decline, probably due to the fact that folk are wising up to the subtle fees inc bizarrely, one to check in!

So what happens as the recession bites deeper and our European cousins also realise that flying Ryanair for 1 Euro is more like 70-90Euro per sector and then start looking elsewhere?

Ryanair flying from Gatwick is frankly absurd considering their anti 'big airport' stance, but when I read that Ryanair are looking at a new UK base, Gatwick it must be? (Yields, market, presence at Gatwick already, anti Aer Lingus who will have 8 planes based by winter...) Only a guess, but somewhat an educated one?

Ryanair is a not a low cost airline, but then again, which one is now?
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 21:40
  #5197 (permalink)  
 
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You're absolutely correct, expansion too quickly could lead to collapse - look at Easyjet; expanding, but not so rapidly. However, look at any big Ryanair base; Girona, Weeze, Hahn, etc - when Ryanair comes, passenger numbers soar. So I geuss the model they have is proven, reliable, and trusted! 3 banks have backed the $1.6 billion aircraft finance agreement. So I geuss they are not going anywhere.

Passengers taking fewer bags? I disagree, although passenger experience doesn't seem valued - each flight I have done, most passengers check-in at least 1 bag.

In theory, ancillary revenues would fall - I think what people are not paying for is the on-board food and drink, credit card charges, and the priority boarding. But checked-in luggage is not falling.

Well, the travelling folk certainly must like Ryanair - as the passenger numbers are on the rise, and have been since Jan 09. In fact, have Ryanair's passenger numbers ever fallen?
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 21:49
  #5198 (permalink)  
 
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Saying Ryanair is going anywhere is just wrong. They will be around for a while longer!

The reason they can open bases and see numbers flock in is because they are able to offer fares at stupidly low prices and people swarm in like flies.

I have flown with them a number of times on day trips and weekends away where I wouldn't have been able to if I hadn't of only paid £2 etc. for a seat. I know this is not good for the airline but there are passengers who will pay much more from most places as their perception of flying is still quite expensive and many who look on Ryanair see a price of £200 etc. and assume they are the cheapest and not look anywhere else.

The first reason is why it is good for the passengers and the latter is why it is good for Ryanair.

SO! Next time you are on a Ryanair flight - thank the person next to you for thinking that Ryanair would be the cheapest fare they would find at short notice which in turn has saved you tens, maybe hundreds of pounds/euros!
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 21:50
  #5199 (permalink)  
 
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So I geuss the model they have is proven, reliable, and trusted! 3 banks have backed the $1.6 billion aircraft finance agreement. So I geuss they are not going anywhere.
First of all it's "guess".
Secondly you're advocating a banker as a trusted man of good judgement with other people's money.
Thirdly the whole point of the bag check in fees is to reduce bags carried and speed up turn around times. Hence, fewer bags carried. If you still disagree can I have the link to the figures you are using?

I think what people are not paying for is the on-board food and drink, credit card charges,
Rubbish given the comparitively low circulation of the ONE card that they don't charge for that's not true.

Well, the travelling folk certainly must like Ryanair as the passenger numbers are on the rise
Did you see the news at Stansted this weekend? Very few people LIKE Ryanair, I use them but I think they're God awful in many respects.

Google PeopleExpress and discover what happens when you go mad for growth at low cost with an inflexible business model. Not a perfect analogy but there are good comparisons.
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Old 6th Aug 2009, 22:03
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Can you show evidence to suggest that checked-in bags are falling?
There is nothing either way, but with results on ancillary remaining strong, I can only draw the conclusion that bags are here to stay! Now that I have to pay to check-in, why not take a bag? It's a extra £20 - and if I am lucky enough to find a fare with free check-in, the bag will only cost a mere £20. Seems to be like a false friend about this reduce handling costs and fast turnaround times...

Well, there are online services which act as a Visa Electron, so anyone with a credit/debit card can use Paypal or Entropay to get a virtual card, so no one really has to pay the £10 a flight charge.

I was in Stansted that weekend, and it seemed like a lot of people were queueing at Ryanair desks, each and every passenger has a choice in the airline that he/she flies with. And more and more people are choosing to fly with Ryanair.

Well, I geuss it pays to shop around - usually Ryanair are cheapest, however on a recent flight Aer Lingus was cheaper; so I went with them!

I said "geuss" as if I said anything else, quotes regarding my age would of surfaced dismissing whatever I say.

I am only 17 -as pointed out many times before- and here is a example of being 17! I went with Aer Lingus as I couldn't afford Ryanair's price - if anyone thinks Ryanair is cheapest (usually they are) well it is there own fault if they find another airline offering a cheaper route.
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