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Old 3rd Jul 2008, 18:33
  #1981 (permalink)  
 
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RYR Transatlantic

Remember that RY at BHX was based on facilities not cost. This is a former BA hub facility that was never fully utilised, perhaps RY see this as London North (fast light rail to Bham Intl station and 70 minutes to London may be seen as just as attractive as Heathblow.) RY are expanding rapidly - could we see this as a move into ahib and spoke type operation to incorparate the transatlantic ops??
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Old 3rd Jul 2008, 18:45
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Unicuique actioni reactio est

...and the result?
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Old 3rd Jul 2008, 19:02
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i believe legislation sould be brought in that limits the amount of time people can spend on a ryr a/c. for me 2 hours is enough of the lowlife that seem to inhabit these a/c - god forbid what effect 8 hours would have on a half decent soul.
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Old 3rd Jul 2008, 22:09
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Ryanair have removed the full price quote facility when selecting a flight. This is in breech of current regulations requiriung all taxes and charegs to be shown at the time of selection.

Hope the Oft throw the book at them for this blatent abuse
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Old 3rd Jul 2008, 22:41
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Prices

lexoncd

Lucky devil - all I have had since 18.00 is a white screen on the FR site!

Agree though, just before that the taxes were on the next page.

I assume technical problems and to be fair it has never been the same
since they changed - well not on my PC.

Pete
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 05:48
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Angel Temet---and the results!

Hi,

OK point taken on the low share price of RYR shares however all the major companies shares have taken a tumble due to the credit crunch and lack of consumer spending. The airlines are getting hit very hard due to high oil prices and oil speculators coupled with consumer belt tightning. However RYR have a war chest of over £4 BILLION so they are not short of cash and can easily wether the storm.
When RYR take over Aer lingus the obvious move is to eliminate all the EI services in Europe RYR can fly those routes. Next EI have a very good Atlantic network flown by highly experienced pilots,Mr O Leary will tweek the North Atlantic and devote all his time and his team to accomplish this. That said I can see RYR becoming a real serious player not only in Europe but also on the North Atlantic..
Interesting times ahead!!!!! Good Luck to Ryanair
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 08:20
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Spot on Kennedy

Good to see some decent vision on Prune.

MOL will undoubtedly win the legal challenge on EIN probably no later than early 2010.

Meanwhile EIN will shrink, 2009 will be painful for them, but I predict that 2010 will see one large Irish airline, with a mega European network that also operates Transatlantics from Dublin, London and Shannon of course.

With Transatlantic operations from Frankfurt, Milan and probably Madrid to come by 2011.... and Asia - I reckon even Asia & Australia will feature on the radar by 2012 at the latest.

Air AsiaX will not ride into STN, without some head on competition.

You read it here first!

FF

Last edited by Flitefone; 4th Jul 2008 at 08:21. Reason: Typo
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 08:29
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EI pilots have really taken a bath with the EI share price....


Pilots in Aer Lingus nursing paper losses of €34m

PILOTS IN Aer Lingus are nursing paper losses of €34 million as a result of the recent steep decline in the airline’s share price.

This is based on an analysis of share trading by both Irish Airline Pilots Pensions Ltd and Tailwind Nominees Ltd following Ryanair’s offer for Aer Lingus in October 2006 and their shareholdings in advance of the failed bid by Michael O’Leary.

The pilots’ pension fund owns just over 12 million shares, which cost it €35.3 million. This stock is now worth €15.1 million, leaving the pension fund nursing a paper loss of €20.1 million.

Tailwind, meanwhile, owns 9.7 million shares. It paid just over €26 million to build that position and the shares are now worth just €12.2 million. This leaves it with a paper loss of €13.8 million.

These losses are based on Aer Lingus’s closing share price in Dublin yesterday of €1.26. The pilots paid up to €3.04 for their shares.

When contacted, Evan Cullen, president of the Irish Airline Pilots Association and a director of Tailwind, declined to comment.

The pilots have previously stated that they are long-term investors in Aer Lingus.

Accounts just filed for Tailwind show that it made a loss of €5.9 million in the year to the end of September 30th, 2007.

The company is funded by members contributions. About 500 Aer Lingus pilots are members of the scheme, along with 20-30 Ryanair pilots, and cabin crew and middle management at Aer Lingus. Annual contributions range from €10,000 to €60,000 based on service, rank and salaries.

© 2008 The Irish Times
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 08:35
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The pilots losses are nothing compared to Ryanair's

Between Ryanair's stake, the Irish government's, ESOT, the pilot's stake and Denis O'Brien's - none of which are available for trading - there must be a serious problem with liquidity in Aer Lingus shares now, with every significant buy or sell decision causing comparatively large share price changes.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 09:16
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So if 2 hours is enough for you when flying RYR would you also consider yourself one of those lowlife !!!
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 11:03
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MOL will undoubtedly win the legal challenge on EIN probably no later than early 2010.

Meanwhile EIN will shrink, 2009 will be painful for them, but I predict that 2010 will see one large Irish airline, with a mega European network that also operates Transatlantics from Dublin, London and Shannon of course.
Flitefone, you obviously don't know much about Aer Lingus. Whether or not Ryanair win the legal battle is irrelevant if shareholders won't sell their shares to them. What is often forgotten is that before the EU blocked the attempted hostile takeover the takeup by Aer Lingus shareholders for the Ryanair deal was virtually non existent, less than 1% of shareholders voted to accept the deal (excluding the shares already held by Ryanair) despite the fact that the initial offer period had expired, and had even been extended. While in the current climate the takeup would probably be higher, the Irish government, the Employee Share Ownership trust, the Pilots and Denis O'Brien own about 47% of Aer Lingus shares between them. They are all staunchly opposed to the Ryanair bid and would never agree to sell their stakes. Even if every single other Aer Lingus shareholder agreed to sell (highly unlikely) to Ryanair the maximum they could get would be 53%. With only a bare majority, Ryanair would not be able to make any big decisions such as on the fleet, on any sale of Heathrow slots or even any new bases. They also would not be able to delist the company, or Ryanair would not be able to takeover Aer Lingus. The 2 airlines would have to remain 2 seperate entities. There is zero chance of Ryanair and Aer Lingus merging into one Irish airline, simply because the other shareholders won't let it!!!
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 11:25
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Originally Posted by OltonPete
All I have had is a white screen on the FR site!

I assume technical problems and to be fair it has never been the same
since they changed - well not on my PC.
Ryanair is obviously backing the wrong horse here - and I do not mean MOL's War of Attrition. The software has been extremely slow, rough and ready, unable to cope with big amount of data to process.
Think of those thousands of potential customers tired with waiting or annoyed with the asthenic screens meaning the notion of insecurity... How many of them went away to check other options and booked with the competitors? How much did this turmoil (started weeks and weeks ago during the famous "upgrade" of the site) actually cost Ryanair in terms of real money?
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:56
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Money is the root of all

en2r I think you are allowing the politics of today's shareownership to cloud the prediction I am supporting.

I am talking about 2010, not 2006.

The pilots views are significant today because the Aer Lingus is still a reasonable (ish) size, but as the airline shrinks, and it inevitably will, while some others (RYR) grow, the once loud pilot voice will become ever more mute.

How many of those pilots would swallow their pride to accept Euro 2.80 today when the share price is a depressing Euro 1.21. More than a few I'm sure. We all have our price.

Don't put it past MOL to make it clear that what he offers in consideration to the Irish Govt for their share in EIN, will pay for x hospitals, x schools etc. In the end MOL needs the Irish tax payer on his side, not the EIN pilots.

I agree that RYR will not likely offer 2.80 again, but the thing to recognise is that they or someone else could.. and no government or union can stop that in European society.

My main point on RYR is nevertheless that they will go long haul, they will win the EU legal challenge re EIN investment, and they will push EIN aside sooner or later whether by consuming them or killing them. Aer Lingus is too small and too bureacratic to change fast enough and avoid it.

The challenge for Aer Lingus today is how to exploit the inevitability of their future for the benefit first of its shareholders and second it's staff.

To deny that at EIN is a bit like Austrian or bmi pushing Lufthansa away, we all know how that will end up.

In the end it all comes down to who has the money and how they can legally spend it.

I know where my bets are.

FF
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 15:58
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Your comment makes sobering reading, Flitefone, with regards to the years ahead for Ryanair and Aer Lingus.

MO'L has still not consumed or killed off Aer Arann on Cork - Dublin and he has been trying hard now for a few years so in a way FR can be stood up to a point at least.

Off course, if it is inevitable that FR go longhaul, that changes the whole picture. They will still need to have a product worth buying and in the next few years even cheaper long haul travel will hardly be the stuff of low prices like they have been for a few years in the short haul market.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 17:31
  #1995 (permalink)  

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If the Exchequer figures keep going the way they are Brian Cowen will sell his family, never mind EI shares, if MOL can offer a face-saving price. If a deal can be worked out with Denis O'Brien then that leaves the pilots in a very exposed position.

The question is whether the numbers make sense for FR shareholders - if they ever did.
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 17:39
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One thing for sure, none of us can predict the future, but there are some very powerful players out there, RYR being one. LH, AF and RYR will be the big three in Europe by far before long.

Going to be an interesting year ahead. Loads of work in the Gulf fortunately.... and the sun shines there!

FF
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Old 4th Jul 2008, 21:49
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Underestimation of unity

Flitefone,

Some of the current Aer Lingus pilots have had the experience of working for ryanair in the past.

As a group, they are vividly aware of the damaging effects ryanair management has already had on the career of the airline pilot.

I can guarantee, in total certainty, they cannot be bought out.
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Old 5th Jul 2008, 08:16
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Ryanair June Figures

Up 19% to 5.17m (4.35m in June 2007), load factor 84% (85% in June 2007)

12m ending 30.06.08 - 53.29m pax with a load factor of 81%

No doubt helped by their new BHX base !
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Old 5th Jul 2008, 08:23
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How are all the new routs performing from the UK. EDI loads seem very strong, ALC, PSA and DUB all looking good. SNN continues to look weak.

How long will it be till RYR announce new routes and extra aircraft at EDI?

How are loads at the two new bases BOH and BHX?
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Old 5th Jul 2008, 09:44
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FR at BHX

frfly

With the base less than three weeks old there is little information at hand
at present but most of the based flights are supposed to be doing well.

However this does not say a lot as it is July and the fares on some routes
were quite low. One or two loads mentioned on the Scandi, Polish and French routes have been excellent.

It was the earlier new routes from the "away" bases which have not been
so good. Marseille averaged about 90 in May and that was before BMI baby re-instated their flight. Pisa had increased to about 118 per flight
in May but this is still disappointing - thought this one would be better.

Girona is fine up to 70%+ in May already but Shannon still around 60%.

The June CAA provisional stats will be out soon and they will give a bit more insight to load factor but alas not yield.

Pete
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