LONDON CITY - 2
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No slots available.
I'm afraid the proposed LBA & MME schedules posted above are a non starter due to there being no slots available.
LCY is pretty much full at peak times.
If you live in the Leeds or Teeside areas then travelling to this part of London can only really be done in a rather longish return day trip by train via Kings Cross. Sorry but that's just the way it is! Any rail journey of under 2.5 to 3 hours to the capital is going to be hard to beat & I would foresee the VLM MAN route coming under increased pressure as the recession continues to bite into business travel budgets.
LCY is pretty much full at peak times.
If you live in the Leeds or Teeside areas then travelling to this part of London can only really be done in a rather longish return day trip by train via Kings Cross. Sorry but that's just the way it is! Any rail journey of under 2.5 to 3 hours to the capital is going to be hard to beat & I would foresee the VLM MAN route coming under increased pressure as the recession continues to bite into business travel budgets.
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With LX reducing ZRH, LH moving TXL to LHR, is LCY likely to have some spare peak time capacity soon, or are these slots likely to be taken up by some new flights?
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Originally Posted by ExpectmorePayless
LBA 0700 - LCY 0810
LCY 0840 - LBA 0950/1020 - LCY 1130
LCY 1200 - JER 1330/1400 - LCY 1530
LCY 1600 - LBA 1710/1740 - LCY 1850
LCY 1920 - LBA 2030
MME 0710 - LCY 0820
LCY 0850 - MME 1000/1030 - LCY 1140
LCY 1210 - GCI 1340/1410 - LCY 1540
LCY 1610 - MME 1720/1750 - LCY 1900
LCY 1930 - MME 2040
LCY 0840 - LBA 0950/1020 - LCY 1130
LCY 1200 - JER 1330/1400 - LCY 1530
LCY 1600 - LBA 1710/1740 - LCY 1850
LCY 1920 - LBA 2030
MME 0710 - LCY 0820
LCY 0850 - MME 1000/1030 - LCY 1140
LCY 1210 - GCI 1340/1410 - LCY 1540
LCY 1610 - MME 1720/1750 - LCY 1900
LCY 1930 - MME 2040
The absence of LCY slots has already been noted. In general if carriers are reducing frequencies in LCY they'll try to rejig their existing slot portfolios to maintain the best slots, so the chances of a new entrant obtaining (for example) an 0820-0850 slot pair at LCY are slim to none.
But let's assume that LCY slots magically come available (and that Scot Airways magically decides to relaunch scheduled flying under its own name)...
The Dornier 328 could never be accused of having a low operating cost per seat
so it needs to be deployed on high-yield sectors to have a chance of profitability (believe me, I know 
). Your proposed peak morning MME-LCY probably fits this bill, and possibly the 0850 LCY-MME and 1750 MME-LCY, but IMHO that's about it. Why would a business passenger pay a premium for a late morning flight to/from MME or LBA, or a midday flight to/from Guernsey or Jersey? And in the evening, if I am a business traveller who's come down from MME for a day's meetings in London, why would I want to hang around until 1930 for a flight home when I could have taken a train two hours earlier and been home in the same time? (This argument applies a fortiori to Leeds with its even better train service.) In other words, most of the sectors in the proposed schedule would be relatively low-yield - filled with the sort of VFR and non-time-sensitive passengers interviewed in the press article mentioned earlier on the MME thread. I don't mean to rain on your parade, but there is a vast gulf between a purely theoretical schedule and a potentially profitable one. So perhaps (since this isn't Spotters' Corner
) it's time that we pinch ourselves and return to the real world... C.
Last edited by Cyrano; 22nd Feb 2009 at 22:11. Reason: Added link to other thread
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No slots
Please do correct me if wrong, but I assume eastern are still holding the numerous daily LCY slot pairs for the 'phantom' LCY-AMS? Given the fact that T3 have now got the Shetlands oil contract which has soaked up Saab aircraft, plus current economic conditions, I don't think it would be too great a mental leap to come to the conclusion that it is probably less than likely that they'll actually do the LCY-AMS.
Notwithstanding the comments Cyrano makes above ref profitability (especially when operating LCY domestic routes with a small aircraft like D328 or J41), with which I agree entirely, there is still the question of whether Eastern (or someone else) might make use of these LCY slots, some of which are of course in peak hours.
Notwithstanding the comments Cyrano makes above ref profitability (especially when operating LCY domestic routes with a small aircraft like D328 or J41), with which I agree entirely, there is still the question of whether Eastern (or someone else) might make use of these LCY slots, some of which are of course in peak hours.
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Those Eastern slots have been made available by AF/KL/VG as ordered by the OFT. I doubt that it will be allowed to use those slots for a route on which AF/KL/VG do not operate at all as this wold fly in the face of the whole competition law review by the OFT.
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virginblue - you are absolutely correct.
But if Eastern does not take up the AMS route what happens then? Does Air France/KLM group get the slots back or do they go back to the pool for reallocation?
But if Eastern does not take up the AMS route what happens then? Does Air France/KLM group get the slots back or do they go back to the pool for reallocation?
Thread Starter
ExpectmorePayless :
Always happy to give constructive criticism as well.
Good to see your scheduling ideas. Now, to complete the picture, and become a Commercial Manager rather than a Timetable Clerk, can you please identify (for Merlyn and all of us) estimated load factor, yield, and revenue for each leg, along with costs and margin. And the basis of these calculations.
On the way you may like to ponder why Edinburgh is a success from LCY, whereas Glasgow, same distance, same competition, double the catchment population, half the flights, and half the operators, is a route which unlike Edinburgh struggles commercially to retain operators.
Always happy to give constructive criticism as well.
Good to see your scheduling ideas. Now, to complete the picture, and become a Commercial Manager rather than a Timetable Clerk, can you please identify (for Merlyn and all of us) estimated load factor, yield, and revenue for each leg, along with costs and margin. And the basis of these calculations.
On the way you may like to ponder why Edinburgh is a success from LCY, whereas Glasgow, same distance, same competition, double the catchment population, half the flights, and half the operators, is a route which unlike Edinburgh struggles commercially to retain operators.
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Eastern slots
I would have thought the OfT would want to try and find another carrier to use them for AMS. Otherwise it could get very messy. The OfT approved AF/VLM based on them getting a 3rd carrier to do LCY-AMS. If they cant do that then what will the OfT do? Refer the deal to the Competition Commission? Accept that the recession means LCY-AMS cant sustain 3 carriers anymore?
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This forced competition stuff is a mess anyway. What happens if the new competitor starts up and culls flights after the shortest of time because they cannot make them work - or do not want them to work because - surprisingly - all of a sudden a certain airline grouping is offering them attractive wet-lease deals or feeder flights to hubs on the continent..... The OFT cannot force an airline to operate on the route or have own slots at its disposal to look continously for new carriers that are willing to take the risk.
Although I must admit that there have been examples in the past. I remember when Lufthansa took over Eurowings, it was forced to prop up small regional independent airline EAE. For examples Lufthansa had to make sure that customers cpuld collect M&M points on EAE flights, Eurowings had to sell five ATR42s at reasonable prices to EAE, Lufthansa/EW had to vacate some routes and hand them over to EAE. But eventually EAE disappeared into insolvency and that was that as far as competion was concerned.
Although I must admit that there have been examples in the past. I remember when Lufthansa took over Eurowings, it was forced to prop up small regional independent airline EAE. For examples Lufthansa had to make sure that customers cpuld collect M&M points on EAE flights, Eurowings had to sell five ATR42s at reasonable prices to EAE, Lufthansa/EW had to vacate some routes and hand them over to EAE. But eventually EAE disappeared into insolvency and that was that as far as competion was concerned.
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Cityflyer's RJ100 that had the accident
Is the RJ100 (G-BXAR) still on the main pan at City. Anyone know if it is to be repaired on the adjacent dock like the Swiss last year ?
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Thanks for the constructive criticism WHBM & Cyrano. I appreciate the
commercial difficulties of VFR and other low yield traffic at LCY.
I'm quite happy remaining a timetable clerk and shall instead asked for
advice on yield, margin, costs and profitability from the well paid bankers
at RBS next time I travel to EDI.
I'm sure they will know how to succeed in the complicated world of commerce.
commercial difficulties of VFR and other low yield traffic at LCY.
I'm quite happy remaining a timetable clerk
and shall instead asked foradvice on yield, margin, costs and profitability from the well paid bankers
at RBS next time I travel to EDI.
I'm sure they will know how to succeed in the complicated world of commerce.
Thread Starter
While we are at it, a story. There were two pax sat waiting in the LCY departure lounge, and they got talking. One introduced himself as, maybe, a construction manager, and the other as an investment banker. "Ah", says the construction guy, "perhaps you can help me. I have just inherited £100,000 from an old rich aunt. How might I invest it ?". "Oh, quite straightforward, put £75,000 into Barclays unit trusts" was the reply. "Ah, OK; and what about the rest ?" says our construction man. "What, the other £25,000 ? Well, that's my fee for the advice" came the answer.
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Well, one day can really screw up your plans... 
Joking aside, I didn't really see this one coming. But also with the current financial climate, the lack of one aircraft may just have been the deciding factor to make sure the rest of the (better performing) routes remain operational. Don't know what the loads were, as I only did one return to DUB ever.
Joking aside, I didn't really see this one coming. But also with the current financial climate, the lack of one aircraft may just have been the deciding factor to make sure the rest of the (better performing) routes remain operational. Don't know what the loads were, as I only did one return to DUB ever.
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BAcityflyer cutting DUB as from 3rd of March .