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Old 12th Oct 2016, 10:28
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https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...5rCg3N.twitter

Skipness

The article here refers. 11th Oct.

Maybe the Government has changed its mind and the spokesperson is second guessing. Maybe they will give a guarantee in terms of a bail out but I suspect there will he a ceiling.

Would that satisfy Heathrow ?

Not sure where Birmingham falls in the equation with zero interest from long haul airlines.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 10:39
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Bad link.

I assume it's this article here: https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...012673.article

which in turn recounts the comments of Andrew Haines, CAA Chief Executive, made at NCE's Airport Conference back in May:

The real warning shot came from regulator Civil Aviation Authority chief executive Andrew Haines. Government making a decision between Heathrow and Gatwick is just “the beginning of the beginning”, he warned. The big challenge, he said, will be to regulate an investment of this size: whether it is Gatwick and its £8bn plans or Heathrow and its £22bn plans.

“There is no track record of regulation being applied to something of this size,” he said.

It is genuinely unprecedented for there to be a major multi-billion infrastructure investment of this scale with absolutely no government guarantee or assistance. The nearest to it is Hinkley Point C. That even comes with government guarantee and look where that’s at. The nearest transport project to it was the Tube PPP. And look how that ended up. His point had resonance.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 10:56
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Mr Haines's point does indeed have resonance. Surely one of the acid tests is--- can the scheme inside the airport fence be financed commercially and what ultimate funding mechanism (RAB plus etc) will be used to create the revenue stream? If the project can't pass that test, it's a very different situation from if it can. If the Govt gives a conditional green light to both schemes, I think that increases the chances of ending up with neither. More credible would be to say that market development in the Government's view requires one additional runway by 2030 and a second by 2040 and the first priority is X.

Last edited by anothertyke; 12th Oct 2016 at 11:07.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 21:25
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Well everyone is agreed it's an emphatic yes
to Heathrow.....everybody is unanimous 👍

HAL "We ain't footing the biill"
Cabinet "We ain't footing the bill '
WWalsh "We ain't footing the bill"
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Old 13th Oct 2016, 22:47
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What tosh from Gatwick this morning that they will build a 2nd runway if LHR gets green light . If Heathrow does ever get built the only thing landing at Gatwick will be tumbleweed.

BA move over
IAG routes move over
EasyJet 40+

Leaves a scattering of charters overnight!
VS will move accross, just like BA, there's no point having a split longhaul operation if there's capacity at LHR.

Carriers in the LGW "waiting room" will also move accross to LHR.

Unlike U2, it is unlikely that FR will start operations at LHR-4, but may move more to LGW from STN(?).


Rumours of LHR-MSY to be announced?
Which carrier(s)?


Whilst supportive of Heathrow it seems bizarre that ALL London labour MPs support rw3.
Why is it bizarre?


Meanwhile it seems the SNP will now support LHR as well again based on dubious rationale, although there stance is more to do with the Barnett Formula.
The SNP always have supported LHR expansion, even when there was only a handful of them.

Scotland needs the connectivity just like the rest of the UK.


Well everyone is agreed it's an emphatic yes
to Heathrow.....everybody is unanimous

HAL "We ain't footing the biill"
Cabinet "We ain't footing the bill '
WWalsh "We ain't footing the bill"
Of course they're not, it will end up in a fudge of some sort, if the decision is ever made of course.
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Old 13th Oct 2016, 23:36
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It's not at all bizarre for Labour MPs, or anyone else, to support RW3.

We need to remember that the people it negatively impacts are a relatively small number of people who live in West London, plus Schipol airport & etc. The people it benefits are pretty much the whole of the rest of the country and, in many respects, also the people who live in West London.

Having witnessed decades of economy harming paralysis one might be easily mislead into thinking that there was a deeper reason for it. There isn't. It's little more than Not Above My Back Yard-ism, with only a tiny touch of additional Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything-ism.

As for the potential users... well... it'd be full the day it opened, wouldn't it?
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 09:35
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More free press for R3

Large editorial (advert) in a major newspaper this morning pro R3. Also TM has been given the go-ahead by govt officials - so that's alright - no free vote.

BBC is now posting the last. Chancellor s request for R3. With R3 more North than planned elsewhere.

Last edited by Trinity 09L; 14th Oct 2016 at 14:44. Reason: Update.
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 13:17
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Why would MPs be allowed to exercise their own opinions? Their only purpose is be lobby fodder for the fabulous elite Cabinet - not the people who elected them or their own opinions.
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 14:55
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Originally Posted by PAXboy
Why would MPs be allowed to exercise their own opinions? Their only purpose is be lobby fodder for the fabulous elite Cabinet - not the people who elected them or their own opinions.
But it's some of those fabulous elite Cabinet members that the free vote is intended as a sop to ...
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 16:47
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Well, how about this then?
Heathrow expansion to go ahead.
Gatwick expansion to go ahead.
And, as a bonus, Birmingham expansion to go ahead!
Yep! All 3, according to an according to an article in New Civil Engineer.
The article says an announcement is expected 18th October, giving Heathrow immediate approval and Gatwick within 2 years.
To be fair, the article doesn't say approval for Birmingham is to be announced but the forthcoming announcement is expected to urge Birmingham to press ahead with their plans.
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...eek_Weekly_106
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 17:33
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Gatwick would be a nonsense, as stated ad nauseum it will lose 50% of traffic as soon as rw3 appears.

As for Birmingham. Words fail me.
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 18:23
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Originally Posted by Navpi
Gatwick would be a nonsense, as stated ad nauseum it will lose 50% of traffic as soon as rw3 appears.

As for Birmingham. Words fail me.
Why not? Birmingham Interchange will be around 50 minutes from Old Oak Common, a similar journey time from central London to Heathrow on the tube...
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 22:52
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"Why not Birmigham ...."

LGW - Airlines move to LHR quicker than the speed of a bullet when slots appear.

There are zero long haul flights of substance at Stansted BUT apparently we are seriously expecting BHX to come through on the rails past both options and mount a challenge?

Deluded is not the word.

Meanwhile it does seem MAG are stirring , on the face of it they may be protecting STN although it does say "airports" so maybe they are more worried about Manchester which I hate to admit is seeing meteoric rises. See comments below

Last edited by Navpi; 15th Oct 2016 at 09:23.
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Old 14th Oct 2016, 22:57
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//www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/14/anti-heathrow-mps-plan-undermine-government-third-runway-approval
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Old 15th Oct 2016, 07:21
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Just wondering what the difference in ticket price between say the West End to LHR on the tube and the same West End to BHX on HS2 and tube or taxi. My guess would be a multiple of at least 4 for the latter, and given the vagaries of air travel timings you'd better have a more flexible ticket for the return at the usual much higher price. First Class on the very expensive Heathrow Express would probably be much cheaper!
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Old 15th Oct 2016, 15:41
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PM could 'clash with senior Tories' over Heathrow Airport - ITV News

Apalled at suggestion that Heathrow could be mired in courts for a minimum of 5 years but betting is more and more likely to be 10.

I cannot see how funds can be raised in the interim if the whole project is mired in sinking sand.
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Old 15th Oct 2016, 16:20
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Fairdealfrank.

I think we also have to throw into the mix that its been reported frequently that the Govt may allow LHR and LGW to get new runways.However they will not be stumping up any cash.

LHR may be ok to raise their own Gatwick perhaps slightly harder.

However very likely the airports would then have to recoup their money by raising landing charges.

So not sure Ryan Air or Easy Jet would be that keen to have to pay higher landing fees and move from their cheaper current bases.
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Old 15th Oct 2016, 18:47
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I think you may be right here Frank. Rumours suggest no money.

"MAYDAY, MAYDAY"

Is it possible we are all being had here, with the Government playing a very shrewd canny game ?

Say Yes to everything but commit absolutely zero money and on that basis the project is finally in the fast lane, sadly the furthest it gets is V1 down a cul de sac.

They gain the headlines they desperately need from the BBC who will swallow the line.

"It's a YES to Heathrow and Gatwick"

Only the more experienced journalists will raise an eyebrow once the detail unravels and that will be long after the headlines have been written.

Job done !

May sneaks away with the kudos of not sitting on the fence and appearing at last to be decisive on this issue and even swerve Gatwick so that doesn't rear it's head down the line as the approval is given now.

Everything is approved but nothing is ever built.

They get years of attrition finally off their back BUT and its a big BUT they walk away and leave outside factors and lawyers to unravel and pick up the mess long after it becomes a non story.

The shareholders of Heathrow and Gatwick will need 5+ years in a sanitarium to agree to give penny to either project!

Last edited by Navpi; 15th Oct 2016 at 18:58.
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Old 15th Oct 2016, 18:53
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They get years of attrition finally off their back BUT and its a big BUT they walk away and leave outside factors and lawyers to unravel and pick up the mess long after it becomes a non story.
Utter tosh, how does a running story that refuses to go away become a "non story" when more time passes and things get worse. Back to Planet Earth please.

Security has been stepped up markedly around the perimeter in the last few days, almost as if they're expecting trouble coming their way......
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Old 15th Oct 2016, 19:53
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At last security is mentioned. Now who is going to pay? The MPS can only respond, the cost of Policing is already funded by HAL, in part, but they cannot provide 24 hour cover for the whole perimeter. Already two instances in the past, plus LCY. The other projects required which can be disrupted are not part of the Heathrow estate so HM govt pays.
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