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Old 29th Dec 2014, 07:30
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As stated before, another LHR rwy isn't a sufficient important issue to unseat MPs, plus no decision would have been made by the election.
Not necessarily so. Remember the "save Kidderminster hospital" campaign a few years ago which lead to an independent, one issue candidate winning in the General election that year; also Martin Bell winning in Tatton, simply because the sitting MP was an (alleged) crook.

A well organised campaign can unseat the most firmly ensconced MP, even with our undemocratic first past the post electoral system - but I would concede that there is probably insufficient time between now and May to whip up voters into a frenzy over new runways at either LGW or LHR - that will be for 2020 (perhaps).
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 09:09
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A well organised campaign can unseat the most firmly ensconced MP, even with our undemocratic first past the post electoral system - but I would concede that there is probably insufficient time between now and May to whip up voters into a frenzy over new runways at either LGW or LHR
Which is, of course, why the Airports Commission has been told not to report until after the election ...
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 09:52
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Which is, of course, why the Airports Commission has been told not to report until after the election ...
And it may not be a coincidence that the frenzy-inducing flightpath trials over Ascot / Horsham et al and any expansion to other areas have been put on hold until next summer.

As for Angie Bray, yes, she's vulnerable, but her constituency is visible from a right hand window seat when doing a westerly landing at LHR, not underneath, the proposed third rwy is also south of her constituency.
But presumably you have looked at the "indicative only - subject to consultation" flight routes assumed for the R3 modelling ? I don't think Ealing will be unaffected.

Jane Ellison is also vulnerable, but her constituency is miles from LHR
True, but, like Justine Greening, next door in Putney, Battersea still gets the benefit of flightpath noise - particularly in the early morning.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 23:39
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Not necessarily so. Remember the "save Kidderminster hospital" campaign a few years ago which lead to an independent, one issue candidate winning in the General election that year; also Martin Bell winning in Tatton, simply because the sitting MP was an (alleged) crook.

A well organised campaign can unseat the most firmly ensconced MP, even with our undemocratic first past the post electoral system - but I would concede that there is probably insufficient time between now and May to whip up voters into a frenzy over new runways at either LGW or LHR - that will be for 2020 (perhaps).
Indeed, but the anti-airport lobby has never stood a candidate in a flightpath constituency, or even at local government level. There must be a good reason for this.....

As for Tatton, IIRC, "cash for questions" was the issue.



Also you state that "first past the post" electoral system is "undemocratic" without offering any evidence or explaining why.

Probably a not a good idea to make assertions of this nature as it's another debate, and could lead to thread drift and unhappy mods.


True, but, like Justine Greening, next door in Putney, Battersea still gets the benefit of flightpath noise - particularly in the early morning.
Yes, aircraft noise is so bad that people are paying "megabucks" to live in these locations, pushing up house prices and pricing locals out.

Sorry to disappoint, but facts are facts, and it's likely that the proposed "mansion tax" will be concentrating more minds in these areas rather than aircraft noise.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 14:37
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Passengers avoid connections at busy London airports in favour of continental rivals - News & Advice - Travel - The Independent

This has been blindingly obvious for a while seemingly missed by the Airport Commission.

It will take more than a 3 RW in 15 years to claw that traffic back.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 15:11
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seemingly missed by the Airport Commission
"Indirect travel via airports in other countries may in some cases provide an alternative to travel via UK airports. Around 10% of passengers at UK airports currently choose to make their journey via airports abroad. Whilst in many cases these indirect journeys help facilitate long-haul travel to countries such as Australia and New Zealand, a number of the most frequently accessed countries, such as United States, Italy and Germany, appear in both the top 10 lists for direct and indirect travel. Airports across the UK play an important role in providing these indirect connections through linking their passengers to other international hubs: for example, Birmingham and Manchester airports together provide more than 5,000 flights per year to Amsterdam Schiphol, 4,000 to Paris Charles de Gaulle, nearly 3,500 to Frankfurt and more than 1,500 to Dubai."

Airports Commission Discussion Paper 02: Aviation Connectivity and the Economy (March 2013)

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...he-economy.pdf

What was it you reckon they missed?
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 17:42
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Airports Commission Discussion Paper 02: Aviation Connectivity and the Economy (March 2013)

MAR 2013 !

...that's about as up to date as the Bayeux Tapestry !

Connectivity to the regions has been mentioned at EVERY single Transport Select Committee Meeting,
every public presentation,
each review since the comission was formed
every press release
AND
is the mantra of both Heathrow and Gatwick adverts......

It is at the absolute pinnacle of arguments to push ahaed with expansion !

It is so absolutely critical that since the mention to which you refer (now almost 2 years old), equal weight appears to have seemingly been missed with reference to the significant increases to other competing hubs from those very same regions !

MAN an increase in capacity to Abu Dhabi by ETIHAD
An annoucement of a return to double daily of QATAR to Doha
A 50% increase to 3 daily by THY to Istanbul , a major hub that should not be overlooked

BHX an announcement of a 3 daily to Dubai
A 100% increase again by THY

EDI new service by QATAR
Announcement of new service by ETIHAD
30% Increase of THY service to daily

One cannot help thinking the data the commission is going to present late 2015 may need , how shall we say "dusting down" !

Unless the committee IS aware and its members are suffering from collective amnesia in keeping its records up to date ?

Such a highly significant trend to use other airports from the regions is surely worthy of equal airtime if they are deemed to be of such importance ?

Last edited by Bagso; 30th Dec 2014 at 18:00.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 19:11
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Originally Posted by Bagso
Airports Commission Discussion Paper 02: Aviation Connectivity and the Economy (March 2013)

MAR 2013 !

...that's about as up to date as the Bayeux Tapestry !
A neat bit of footwork there - from complaining that regional connectivity was something that the Commission hadn't picked up on, to acknowledging that they addressed it in one of their first discussion papers, and without even a pause for breath in between.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 20:39
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they addressed it in one of their first discussion papers

indeed but not since , and that is the point !

We shall joust the other side of 2014 Sir

Happy New Year !
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 21:30
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Bagso, remind me, what is it you would like to see?
A 1-5 of likely and achievable outcomes, a practical and semi-likely wish list?

Curious.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 18:22
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Happy New Years Skip

More jousting in 2015 I hope !

I "think" we are in agreement re RW3 LHR although would have still preferred a new 4 runway airport 20 miles up the M40 !

My comment was purely with the quality of work by the commission.

As I said previously some of that data has not been updated for nigh on 2 years, is it relevent to the final comission findings ?

Surely it is and IF its trend it should be included for completeness !

When they came to Manchester 12 months back there appeared to be a rather hesitant civil serveant charged with digging out detail, I sincerely hope we are not relying on him to spoon feed the comssison data, hesitant was not the word AND if he was based in Whitehall he would not have a clue what was going on outside the M25.

IF you are going to set up agency to provide you with forensic detail lets at least make sure its up to date and acccurate !
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:03
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Airports Commission Discussion Paper 02: Aviation Connectivity and the Economy (March 2013)

MAR 2013 !

...that's about as up to date as the Bayeux Tapestry !

Connectivity to the regions has been mentioned at EVERY single Transport Select Committee Meeting,
every public presentation,
each review since the comission was formed
every press release
AND
is the mantra of both Heathrow and Gatwick adverts......

It is at the absolute pinnacle of arguments to push ahaed with expansion !

It is so absolutely critical that since the mention to which you refer (now almost 2 years old), equal weight appears to have seemingly been missed with reference to the significant increases to other competing hubs from those very same regions !

MAN an increase in capacity to Abu Dhabi by ETIHAD
An annoucement of a return to double daily of QATAR to Doha
A 50% increase to 3 daily by THY to Istanbul , a major hub that should not be overlooked

BHX an announcement of a 3 daily to Dubai
A 100% increase again by THY

EDI new service by QATAR
Announcement of new service by ETIHAD
30% Increase of THY service to daily

One cannot help thinking the data the commission is going to present late 2015 may need , how shall we say "dusting down" !

Unless the committee IS aware and its members are suffering from collective amnesia in keeping its records up to date ?

Such a highly significant trend to use other airports from the regions is surely worthy of equal airtime if they are deemed to be of such importance ?
Bagso, there is nothing unusual in what you report about flights from airports other than Heathrow, it's the nature of the ubiquitous hub and spoke system. The above-mentioned carriers feed their hubs from Ringway (and other airports around the world), just as BA feeds its hub, Heathrow, from airports around the world.

The capacity constraints at Heathrow means that BA can't do this as effectively as other carriers can at their hubs, and as a consequence, the UK is losing market share on many levels, including, potentially, its status as Europe's #1 aviation hub.

It's not just the lack of routes to new countries with expanding economies from the nation's hub. It is also the incomplete nature of the domestic air network and the lack of connectivity to/from the nation's hub, and this where the Airports Commission has an interest.

It's obviously excellent to see that the larger non-LHR airports sucessfully expand their longhaul routes, but it's hardly an issue for the Airports Commission, because it has no impact on the UK's position as Europe's #1 aviation hub.

The Airports Commission's remit concerns the maintenance of the UK as Europe's #1 aviation hub. That means addressing the lack of capacity at Heathrow, and that means expansion there. Anything else (e.g. Gatwick) is a side show.

It is as plain and as simple as that.


Happy New Years Skip

More jousting in 2015 I hope !

I "think" we are in agreement re RW3 LHR although would have still preferred a new 4 runway airport 20 miles up the M40 !
"London-Oxford" (Kidlington)? No only kidding.

Seriously, do you mean 20 mi. from Heathrow? If so that means about 40 mi. from London.

Bit too far out isn't it? To put it in context, would you want Ringway replaced with a Manchester airport at Stoke, or north of Preston?


When they came to Manchester 12 months back there appeared to be a rather hesitant civil serveant charged with digging out detail, I sincerely hope we are not relying on him to spoon feed the comssison data, hesitant was not the word AND if he was based in Whitehall he would not have a clue what was going on outside the M25.
Outside the M25? You’re having a laugh!

You’re talking about civil servants, so it's more like outside zone 1, or zone 2 if you’re very, very lucky.
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 02:06
  #3413 (permalink)  
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Bagso
It will take more than a 3 RW in 15 years to claw that traffic back.
It does not matter how many runways they build - the traffic is nerv coming back.
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Old 9th Jan 2015, 10:22
  #3414 (permalink)  
 
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http://airlineroute.net/2015/01/09/v...ampaign=social

Vietnam reportedly moving LGW to LHR from the end of March with B787s from July. LGW has no credibility in this market sadly.
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Old 9th Jan 2015, 15:34
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http://airlineroute.net/2015/01/09/v...ampaign=social

Vietnam reportedly moving LGW to LHR from the end of March with B787s from July. LGW has no credibility in this market sadly.
Yep, as predicted: VN off to LHR-4.

More evidence of LGW being LHR's waiting room (as far as long haul is concerned).

GA next?
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Old 16th Jan 2015, 09:29
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More evidence of LGW being LHR's waiting room (as far as long haul is concerned).


Only Heathrow Airport expansion will allow Britain to win the global race for growth | City A.M.


The above article states that their is a long list of airlines who want to use to Heathrow but can't due to capacity constraints.


Assuming that this list includes all the current operators who use Gatwick but not Heathrow (easyJet, Garuda, Ukraine International, Air Baltic etc) I have to admit I'm struggling to come up with that many others.


For me the obvious contenders are LAN Airlines, their various offshoots and Aerolineas Argentinas. Would China Airlines want to have another go? Would Air Namibia do any better at Heathrow? What about airlines such as Xiamen which are planning on going long haul?
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Old 16th Jan 2015, 10:33
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I think he means primarily there's a lot of existing airlines at LHR who would use more slots if they existed. We've had this conversation before but if I recall 50% of any new slots are initially allocated to existing operators and 50% to new operators defined as operators with 4 or fewer pairs of slots per day. There are many interesting questions about how the process of allocating a massive increase in slots would actually be managed given issues of 'use it or lose it' and organising the terminal capacity, slots and gates depending on who gets the slots.
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Old 28th Jan 2015, 20:05
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Iberia Express to launch nonstop routes from Heathrow to Tenerife-North (TFN) 3x weekly and Gran Canaria (LPA) 4x weekly for the start of S15
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Old 30th Jan 2015, 09:54
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Thai introducing the A380 to LHR this summer, but reducing frequency to just 1 per day, down from 2. Predictable and sensible move in their current situation.
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Old 30th Jan 2015, 11:39
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"Iberia Express to launch nonstop routes from Heathrow to Tenerife-North (TFN) 3x weekly and Gran Canaria (LPA) 4x weekly for the start of S15"

now that is going to improve the Business position of UK plc............

BA should be using those slots for trips to the middle of China etc etc
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