DUBLIN

[Ireland105]

One can only hope - it would be a fantastic win for T2 and the DAA. But Emirates are great talkers - Flanagan himself admits that they have been looking at it and looking at it. There comes a time for action, and it didnt happen when Ireland was booming. Hard to see it when the nation is melting into the ground.

More concerning, he is also wrong about the "failure" of EI in Dubai. Contrary to many reports, the route was actually quite successful with average load factors in excess of 75%. The problem was 2 fold:

1. Absolutely no marketing in the UAE of the service - appauling management on EI's part

2. EI were in a dire state as of late 2007/early 2008 and a serious cut back was needed. So Dubai was axed. Not because the route was a failure, but because the airline was in the ****s generally.

Its scary when these guys dont know what they are talking about

[EI Premier]

More concerning, he is also wrong about the "failure" of EI in Dubai. Contrary to many reports, the route was actually quite successful with average load factors in excess of 75%. The problem was 2 fold:

1. Absolutely no marketing in the UAE of the service - appauling management on EI's part

2. EI were in a dire state as of late 2007/early 2008 and a serious cut back was needed. So Dubai was axed. Not because the route was a failure, but because the airline was in the ****s generally.

I'm afraid the above is not entirely accurate.

If you look to 2008, we can see that Dermot Mannion was still in control. At the helm, he was obsessed with base expansion, borne out clearly by the front page of the 2008 Annual Report.

Associated with the issue of lackluster marketing, was the fact that a new aircraft, should have been assigned to the route on at least some occasions, especially for the launch flight..!

In addition, your second point is simply untrue and incorrect. Aer Lingus had an exceptional year to 30 December 2007 and to say anything otherwise is incorrect. They recorded double digit total revenue and Profit (BEPS) growth - €88.5 million! Profit before taxation was almost €125 million. H1, 2008 was also strong for the airline and it was spiralling oil prices thereafter that had a significant impact upon the overall profitability of the company, along with a commencement of a weakening in demand on TATL routes in Q4, 2008 - which accelerated across all routes during H1, 2009 and resulted in a lower fare base and sharply declining yields. Subsequent reductions in the cost base have only been necessary because of yields/revenue that weakened for at least eight subsequent quarters...

An Eastbound route to Dubai could have worked for Aer Lingus, the ''pilot'' at the helm was the problem. Now that a competitor has a foothold on the route, it would be hard to re-gain some of the lost market share, especially considering the overall macro environment.

EI Premier

[Kavs8]

I'd love if EK came to DUB it would be fantastic it would definitly work for them! i really do think that the problem with the EI - DXB route was that they have focussed to much on the American market , for e.g. when DXB was axed from DUB in 2008 the slots (-T-T-S-) where used to increase LAX to daily; only also to be axed in November 2008.

Emirates in Ireland (DUB) would be in the right direction!!

[brianoh]

Czech Airlines

Air Baltic RIX-DUB-JFK-DUB-RIX

Oman Air

Cyprus Airways LCA-DUB-YYZ-DUB-LCA

Air India Everywhere in India-DUB-The states

Singapore Airlines

Aeroflot

Manx2.com

Virgin Atlantic

Arik

Looking at this list, I think the most realistic are the Oman Air, Air Baltic and Cyprus Airways links.

Oman Air operate A330's on all high volume and long-haul routes and if they were interested in starting up US routes like the rest of their Gulf neighbours, these would probably not be deemed long range enough without a stopover somewhere like Dublin.

Air Baltic, well due to the amount of their nationals in Ireland and that they are likely to want to serve JFK with their 757-200's, again a stop is needed and they can pick up some extra PAX.

Cyprus Airways, a similar reason with trying to serve Toronto with a A330 from Larnaca, though should have the range with a plane like that. Not sure there's too much demand between Canada and Cyprus (especially if they don't serve anywhere in the US), but I could be wrong.

Can't see the rest happening, though maybe Aeroflot using Dublin as an A330 stopover for the likes of Havana or Los Angeles could still be runners, especially as they used to use Shannon as a stopover.

Air India though......the cancelled flights on the live departures at Dublin Airport are encouraging but Aer Lingus did once load Cairo and Bangkok into their system and nothing came of either.

[EIPCW]

The best we will get would be Manx2 Let410 going to GLO or some such low key route, but it would be nice to hope that some of the above mention Airlines might, just might maybe, someday soon call into Dublin??

[DannyKelly22]

Heard a romour today that AA is leaving DUB this winter. Apparently the staff were told today they were packing up for the winter. Don't know how true it is. Can't see it happening but if it did this would be good news for EI

[EIPCW]

No its fact in this case

[DannyKelly22]

seems weird that AA have a press release on their website celebrating 5 years on DUB - ORD and they're (not officially) supposiidly cutting it for the winter and routing all traffic through EI to their LHR services. All winter flights direct from DUB - ORD have no been cut on amadus. must be true.

[brianoh]

Anyone see this on the Dublin Airport arrivals site:

Ryanair FR297 24-05-2010 18:10
Abadan Europe Airpost ABR416J 24-05-2010 18:40
London - Lcy Air France AF5119 24-05-2010 18:45
Isn't Abadan in Iran? What would one of Europe Airpost's Passenger flights be doing going there from Dublin unless it's a similar flight to the Chad ones carrying Irish peacekeeping troops?

[dublindispatch]

Typo error should be ADB not ABD, Same thing happened couple of weeks ago.

[Skipness One Echo]

They had a press release celebrating the return of the "succesfully seasonal" GLA-ORD in the same week it was axed permanenetly. Left hand right hand etc alas

[akerosid]

"Typo error should be ADB not ABD, Same thing happened couple of weeks ago. "

ADB is Izmir - Adnan Menderes Airport.


"
Czech Airlines

Air Baltic RIX-DUB-JFK-DUB-RIX

Oman Air

Cyprus Airways LCA-DUB-YYZ-DUB-LCA

Air India Everywhere in India-DUB-The states

Singapore Airlines

Aeroflot

Manx2.com

Virgin Atlantic

Arik

Looking at this list, I think the most realistic are the Oman Air, Air Baltic and Cyprus Airways links. "

Wasn't LO supposed to be returning to DUB this year as well?

I can't see SQ coming in, which is a real pity; they did specifically mention DUB as a possibility, but of course, runway length obstructs us once again. Maybe they could be persuaded to do it via another European airport as they do from MAN (some go via MUC) until a rwy extension is constructed. That said, I can't think that SQ is very impressed by DUB, particularly as they also axed their cargo service. Some investment in that will be necessary also.

Can't see VS doing it, although they would have the right to and their new A330s would be ideal; they begin arriving next year.

Oman Air could be possible; they currently operate 330s (and by all accounts a VERY top drawer product!), but they have 787s on order.

-------------------------------------------

Realistically, until they get someone at government level who knows his a@@e from his elbow and has he interest, passion and drive to push people and get things moving (within the department as well as in other areas), you're not going to see change. The interest simply isn't there at govt level, as evidenced by the fact that ND was left in his job, despite having achieved less than any transport minister in recent times. I hate to say this, but what is needed is a minister who is feared - and you just can't see that happening anytime soon.

[Sober Lark]

Spotters dream on. None of the airlines mentioned could maximise fleet assignment and aircraft rotations with the range block constraints of a short runway. It just wouldn't add to profitability.

Now, see the bigger picture. What if we could entice someone like Ryanair into Dublin?

[irish laddie]

Spotters dream on. None of the airlines mentioned could maximise fleet assignment and aircraft rotations with the range block constraints of a short runway. It just wouldn't add to profitability.

Now, see the bigger picture. What if we could entice someone like Ryanair into Dublin?

Thats hitting the nail on the head. While it may be pretty to have the odd shiny 777 from the gulf drift over the 28 threshold, you have to remember that the DAA is a business. Bring in AI and all you get is pretty pictures, a few ground handling jobs and a big queue at CBP...

Even a couple of extra based 738/320's helps keep everybody in the chain busy, whether it be the security guys, car park bus drivers, Boots, Easons, etc etc. A pax from Luton or Hahn should be viewed with just as much regard as a Long Haul pax from any of the above wish list airlines.

And as for the need for a larger runway, is it really a viable proposition when it is potentially an asset provided for lets say max 1000 pax per day, but paid for through higher fees by the other 40-50000 and no doubt further aggrieving the incumbent airlines in DUB.

Whats needed in this country is a complete new aviation strategy. The industry in this country is simply fallen on its face at the moment and the powers that be don't seem to appreciate the potential prizes that are right in front of them out in North Dublin already...

[Just a spotter]

I think that most of us mere spotters on the board, as interested observers, "get" the issues regarding the impact myopic government aviation strategy has had on all the airports around the country, not just DUB (and that's before you get into the vagaries of the Irish electoral system and how it handed power to a handful of politicians from the Limerick/Clare region and the SNN lobby) and how that affects the operational attractiveness of the airport.

Dismissing the DAA successfully attracting AI or any other airline to use the Customs/Border facility in DUB or SNN as daft just because it would do nothing more than give the impression of something tangible without any real benefits is to miss one fundamental truth of Irish governance and business management; too often the easy things are done here just to give the impression that things are being done, even if they have little or no real benefit. How many times do we see Irish politicians pointing to some small achievement and "hyping" it up as though it was some great herald of things to come (almost every new job announcement over the last 12 months has apparently signalled that we've turned a corner and the recession is over ... well if we're turning that many corners we're going around in circles!).

The politicians would be very interested in the media opportunities of an AI stop over as an indication of "links" with India or elsewhere, where as two, three or four new EI or FR routes, even if they may produce more jobs in and/or investment into the country don't have the same attractiveness for the politicos.

A longer runway is needed. It's key national infrastructure, like a motorway between two major cities, and so, the costs probably shouldn't be lumped entirely onto the airlines. FR will oppose it, because they have no interest in it, but then, with the wind in the right direction they can get their 738's off 34/16. If Ireland inc. wants to connect directly with the "emerging markets" of South America, or India and points east, then, IMHO, either 28 needs extending or 28R needs building.

JAS

[irish laddie]

The politicians would be very interested in the media opportunities of an AI stop over as an indication of "links" with India or elsewhere, where as two, three or four new EI or FR routes, even if they may produce more jobs in and/or investment into the country don't have the same attractiveness for the politicos.
A longer runway is needed. It's key national infrastructure, like a motorway between two major cities, and so, the costs probably shouldn't be lumped entirely onto the airlines. FR will oppose it, because they have no interest in it, but then, with the wind in the right direction they can get their 738's off 34/16. If Ireland inc. wants to connect directly with the "emerging markets" of South America, or India and points east, then, IMHO, either 28 needs extending or 28R needs building.

But relalistically there is never going to be the yields or arguably demand for thousands of seats every week nonstop from DUB to South America or points in Asia.
On Asia for instance, Ethiad offer most of whats needed on this market as it is. Meanwhile while the AI and emerging markets talk is going on, AA, a carrier operating happily from DUB (to the worlds largest economy) since 2005 seem to be heading for the door if earlier posts on this thread are to be believed...is it that a 757 is just not sexy enough to be saved??

Basically my point is that the DAA should just take the less glamorous option and go back to basics. There doesent need to be a total love in with RYR/EIN, but at least make noise that its where they see growth potential. When and if they ever get back to 24million pax per annum, then start broadening the net further afield.

[chuboy]

I still think DUB needs the longer runway. Are we really happy with one carrier monopolising the links to Asia and beyond?

Etihad has paved the way but I think healthy competition as well as the potential for direct links to Asia rather than stopping in Abu Dhabi are very attractive propositions for pax (customers of both airlines and DAA).

Not to mention the fact the USA is by no means the largest economy anymore, nor will it be in the future. If Ireland wants to keep that market intact, it had better hope to have strong links with China and India. I know that as a business person direct flight > stopover.

[Ireland105]

While Etihads presence in Dublin is much welcomed I cant see any single benefit in terms of a traveller wanting to fly to mainland asia so to speak in going through Abu Dhabi instead of the many other options through europe. Yes Etihad offer excellent service and good routings, but from an Asia perspective its "just another way" of getting there - and frankly as a regular traveler to asia I would not fancy flying for 7 hours and than stopping and than another 6 hours. Give me a 1 hour hop and than a long haul flight any day. Etihad wins in terms of traffic to Australia with the "just one stop". What is desparately needed is indeed direct flights to China, most likely and ideally Beijing. And there certainly is demand - in fact I would say they would be absolutely booked out based on a frequency of 4 flights a week with an A330 (CA/HA/EI). Runway length not an issue on a Beijing routing, its the nearest destination in asia to Ireland, and coincidentally probably the best option in terms of yields, numbers, traffic etc as well. Dont underestimate the numbers of people in Ireland flying to China. I believe even business class would be full to the brim as many more business's now are eyeing up China as a viable alternative for growth as things go to the ****s here.
...but im gulity of what I was earlier complaining about....its most likely a dream. Cheap and nasty government gets you a cheap and nasty result. Do you see Cowan and Coughlan discussing these issues over tea ? Neither do I ! Id say both of them are busy picking themselves up off the floor after a hard nights boozing.

[akerosid]

"Spotters dream on".

Let's not bandy around the word "Spotters" too freely; sure, we're all aviation enthusiasts, but it's all too easy for people in authority to dismiss certain opinions simply because they come from "spotters"!

Apparently, Pat Kenny had an interview on his show (which will be carried on to next week, due to a lack of time) about DUB and it mentioned runway issues; the guy he was talking to - Eoghan Corry - apparently suggested that the AI deal and EK might be out the window due to runway length. This will be discussed next week, so no doubt the DAA will be listening with some trepidation. Probably ND and the Dept of Transport too, if they can summon up the interest.

We can go on debating (and it's not much of a debate because most of us seem to agree!) the runway issue, but really it's going to take the splash of cold water in losing AI (a link to one of the world's fastest growing economies) to shake people into action. I would hate to see DUB lose AI if it's really a serious possibility, but if it means that we finally start to take seriously the requirements of long haul air traffic, then so be it.

Remember the terminal issue; can you recall how the need for change was identified and acted upon? Was it the initiative on the govt's part? Was it hell! No, it was a growing clamour of people calling for it and it may have to be like this again. If the interest isn't there, then it will need to be "encouraged".

[Ireland105]

Akerosid - agree with you except for one thing. Raising the issue even in a widely viewed public forum wont necessarily spur anyone into action, even if the so called AI deal is lost and the light is finally shed on the reason for it.