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Nepal Plane Crash

Old 16th Jan 2023, 06:53
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I've an analysis done but can't post it as I'm a new user.

I was also on that very plane 18 days ago on a 1 hour Everest Scenic Flight.

There's 20+ seconds missing form that poor souls video inside the cabin between the temple and the stadium.

Looks like they were aiming for the new runway but flew over the old on the approach.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 07:05
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According to BBC both FDR and CVR been recovered. so we are likely to learn what hapenned in in a few weeks/months. , and according the same report all 72 occupansts on board are likely dead.
A very sad day for Nepal aviation . RIP all...
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 07:29
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https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?m...TE&usp=sharing

This could be the possible flight path based on the video , Long Straight Lines are the parts not visible in the video but most likely to be turns to arrive at the path . Doesn't look like it is heading for the old airport as they are above it and possibly lining for the new airport .


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Old 16th Jan 2023, 07:33
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Originally Posted by CommanderCYYZ
The impact of the crash would have sent the phone hurtling. The likely hood of it landing in such a way as to film a fire - which is in no way intense enough - is minute.
Well, it only has two sides. Top and bottom. If it lands bottom up, it films whatever is holding it up. If it lands top up, it films the fire.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 07:49
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Originally Posted by Yo_You_Not_You_you

This could be the possible flight path based on the video , Long Straight Lines are the parts not visible in the video but most likely to be turns to arrive at the path . Doesn't look like it is heading for the old airport as they are above it and possibly lining for the new airport .
How does this compare with any relevant published procedures?

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Old 16th Jan 2023, 07:53
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https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/co-p...ndtv_topscroll

Was a relatively experienced crew...Very sad
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:23
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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How about the recorders? Have they been found?
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:26
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Easy to know...

Originally Posted by Kraftstoffvondesibel
Nothing but pure speculation, so ignore if you arenít in the mood:
Rumors has it this was an older,very experienced, near pension age captain with a quite fresh co-pilot.
What if the captain had a medical event gradually getting to him on approach? Reverted to experience and aimed for the old airport, realising his mistake but was incapacitated, out of energy and unable to correct the situation or transfer control. Even with the best CRM in the world, that could be a tricky situation with such a cockpit gradient?
IF that happened, CVR will be of great value.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:27
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Somewhere else, it is claimed FDR and CVR could be retrieved in good state.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:29
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For those wondering about the published procedures, here is the link to AIP Nepal:
https://e-aip.caanepal.gov.np/welcome/listall/1

The only approach plates I could find for VNPR are in AMDT 2/2023, coming into force with AIRAC cycle 2/23 on Feb 23, 2023. Nothing for RWY 12, apparently.
https://e-aip.caanepal.gov.np/_uploa...e3f89f8b36.pdf

The current pages, which came into force on Dec 29, 2022, do not include approach plates yet.
https://e-aip.caanepal.gov.np/_uploa...56de95664b.pdf
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:29
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Originally Posted by michaelbinary
Its not a guess at all.
Everybody can see it, its pretty obvious to any pilot.
The nose lifted.
The plane stalled.
The left wing dropped.
It crashed.

Why it did that, I have no idea, and thats what people should stop guessing about.
Why stop guessing? Whatís wrong with speculating about what may have happened?
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:35
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Originally Posted by nojwod
m
2. Same as 1. but pilot flying has lost situational awareness, fixated on an unfamiliar approach and allows the plane to reach high AoA before realising a stall was developing but by then it was too late. Both pilots might have been looking outside for the runway, with engines sounding normal, hand flying and the yoke being gently pulled back too far, loss of airspeed that suddenly resulted in a stall once the bank angle increased beyond a point, and from which there's no way to prevent the plunge into terrain.

But then again, looking at the footage once more, maybe what I thought was a nose down push was just the start of the stall. In which case the plane was flown all the way into the stall, something that could be explained if it was a desperate attempt to keep flying without enough thrust.
I would tend to concur with the second, have seen numerous low hours pilots turning base to final becoming fixated with the location of the runway and inadvertently pulling back as they do so.

In one case I had to literally scream at the pilot to lower the nose and then got him to look out the front at his horizon to realise just how far heĎd pulled back on the yoke, told him to stop staring at the runway, itís not going anywhere.

One instructor once confirmed that itís very insidious but common of low hours pilots flying VFR to a new airport to become fixated on the runway and not the aircraftís attitude.

Having said this, there are probably more holes in the Swiss cheese to line up, maybe perhaps a medical event of the Captain? However if the Captain called for a change from 30 to 12, this would really have to be sods law for it to happen on base before turning final.

RIP all on board
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:42
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Originally Posted by BO0M
I've spent two decades on the ATR (all variants) and a TRE/TRI for a good period of that. I'm not saying it to beat my chest but to make some comments reagrding this tragic accident.
- The ATR 72 has 2 flap settings (15 & 30). Its not clear from the photos or video what setting they had at the time of the stall but it appears to be flaps 15 which for that stage of the flight it should have been 30.
- ATR has a shaker and a pusher, the pusher goes off well before CLmax and is extremely forcefull. If inhibited or switch off the shaker will still rattle your cage enough to make you carry out Stall Memo items as trained (effectively, Push, Wings Level, Power as required).
- Having tested the machine in real life without the shaker and pusher activate it will drop a wing if not in balance and aerodynamically stalled. If the aircraft was in the turn then its a real possibility. There is no pitch up tendancy, quite the opposite.
- I'm not drawing any conclusions apart from saying the video shows a very nose high ATR that stalls and drops a wing. What lead to the event is unknown and nothing anybody should be speculating.

My thoughts go out to everyone on this flight and the people they left behind. It's truly a tragic event.
Last night I spoke with a close friend that is not only fan of ATRs: he got MARRIED on board of one. He's not only doing his job driving these birds but also trainer and chief of pilots in his airline.
He says EXACTLY what you explain and added that ATRs are FANCY TO HANDLE but complicated once the right SPEED is lost (up or down). And that the REACTION to throttle (i.e. in a GA) is harder than in any commercial jet, which make he think they were doing something not that good in the cockpit.
And that he THINKS that all begun with a not appropriate speed + a turn to the port side which made the AC to stall.
My friend says the flight was pleasant an with NO TURBULENCE in a clear and sunny day (after the two videos), and POSSIBLY a mishandling in the bad moment made the fall to come.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 08:59
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I am a little puzzled that we speculators have not included mechanical/system failure in our lists of possible causes

A common description of the evidence we have seen so far indicates insufficient power/energy to complete the maneuvers observed immediately before the accident. Further observations are that there is no aural evidence of engines spooling up.

Possible failures that could account for this include fuel contamination, fuel system failure and throttle/power control system breakage or failure.

Of course these would be rare but then again, accidents are rare!
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 09:06
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Originally Posted by Yo_You_Not_You_you
This could be the possible flight path based on the video, Long Straight Lines are the parts not visible in the video but most likely to be turns to arrive at the path . Doesn't look like it is heading for the old airport as they are above it and possibly lining for the new airport .
FR24 claim to have granular EHS data covering the last 7 minutes of the flight for which no ADS-B data is available. Depending on how detailed it is, it may well be able to be used to reverse-engineer the approximate horizontal and vertical trajectory, which would confirm (or not) the above theory.

We'll find out in due course whether they intend to publish it.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 09:16
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@Maninthebar; it's not a competition, but check post #69.

@Meleagartoo; how else then, do we express our shock, horror and feelings for the victims of (yet another) air crash? What form of words would you prefer?
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 09:18
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Originally Posted by Maninthebar
Possible failures that could account for this include fuel contamination
...which has a tendency to strike soon after takeoff, once the non-contaminated fuel has been burned up and the off-specification, water-containing or otherwise unsuitable stuff reaches the engines. Also, it would be usual in many airlines to fuel the aircraft for the round trip to a remote (-r) airport at the home base, so typically, there is a quite substantial top-up involved. If there had been something wrong, it would be noticed much earlier in flight and in all probability would have affected other flights that used the same fuel source as well.

Originally Posted by Maninthebar
, fuel system failure ...
...hitting both separate fuel systems at once? For the effects of fuel depletion in an airliner, look at Avianca at Cove Neck 1990 or Lamia more recently; this does not kill all engines at the same second.

Originally Posted by Maninthebar
throttle/power control system breakage or failure.
On both engines at the same time, involving both power levers and both condition levers, i. e. 4 levers and their associated linkage and control units at once?


All those assumptions seem extremely far fetched.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 09:26
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Originally Posted by Maninthebar
I am a little puzzled that we speculators have not included mechanical/system failure in our lists of possible causes

A common description of the evidence we have seen so far indicates insufficient power/energy to complete the maneuvers observed immediately before the accident. Further observations are that there is no aural evidence of engines spooling up.

Possible failures that could account for this include fuel contamination, fuel system failure and throttle/power control system breakage or failure.

Of course these would be rare but then again, accidents are rare!
Power or lack of it , may well prove to be a big part of the issue ?
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 09:41
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I don't see anything unethical with speculating, if it can raise awareness among the pilot group about the inherent risks of some maneuvers.
The one thing that strikes me is the fairly tight circling, whether you call it a circling approach or a visual approach doesn't matter. If the maneuver was flown from the right hand seat the runway could be hard to see. The room for lateral or vertical deviations are small. In an attempt to get visual with the runway speed awareness is lost. Pulling back on the yoke may even be an abscent minded attempt at that.
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Old 16th Jan 2023, 09:48
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Not sure if any footage has identified one or the other props feathered (?) or engine failure, but could not the end event / disaster be the result of an engine failure event on approach that was not handled IAW operator / manufacturer guidelines? (leading to an aerodynamic stall / CFIT)

There appears to be much speculation, but what we have seen may be the consequences of an event moments before the footage (that is widely available) commences.
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